The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review finds Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 39% (up one) and Greens 14% (steady). Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is out from 42-38 to 47-38, though his personal ratings of 37% favourable and 45% unfavourable show no change in net terms on a month ago (when it doesn’t appear the actual numbers were reported). Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 30% and up two to 43%.
Also featured were questions on the leaders’ attributes, with results including leads for Albanese of 28-24 on trustworthiness (a notably high response rather for neither) and 39-28 for being in touch with ordinary people, and for Dutton of 44-38 on clarity of vision and 38-32 on being good in a crisis. Labor also narrows deficits since last month’s poll as best party to handle the cost of living and tax and government spending. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1051.
The poll is wrong. Labor is not doing this bad. Dutton is the right-wing version of Michael Foot and is unelectable. Nothing to see here.
The polls all seem 51-52 to Labor atm.
Is this herding ?
Even behind the scenes in the organisational wing of the party, women can’t succeed in the Liberal party.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/don-harwin-elected-nsw-liberal-president-by-single-vote-20240310-p5fb9j.html
“The Ukrainian government has responded angrily and vowed never to surrender after Pope Francis said the country should have “the courage to raise the white flag” and negotiate an end to the war with Russia.
“Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said on social media on Sunday.
Politicians and commentators in Europe expressed outrage after the pontiff gave an interview in which he appeared to stay silent on Russia’s crimes as aggressor in the invasion and placed the onus on Ukraine to make peace.
Kuleba called on Francis to stand “on the side of good” and not put Russia and Ukraine “on the same footing and call it ‘negotiations’”.
He also appeared to refer to collaboration between some of the Catholic church and Nazi forces during the second world war: “At the same time, when it comes to the white flag, we know this Vatican strategy from the first half of the 20th century. I urge to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and to support Ukraine and its people in their just struggle for their lives.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/10/pope-francis-criticised-for-saying-ukraine-should-raise-white-flag-and-end-war-with-russia
“Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has addressed Pope Francis following the latter’s controversial remarks that Ukraine should have what he called “the courage of the white flag” and negotiate an end to the war with Russia.
The Polish minister believes that now the Pope should address Russian President Vladimir Putin and urge him to withdraw his occupying forces from Ukraine.
“How about, for balance, encouraging Putin to have the courage to withdraw his army from Ukraine?” Sikorski noted.
He stressed that if Putin withdrew his troops from Ukraine, “peace would immediately ensue without the need for negotiations”.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/10/7445786/
“MPs from the German governing coalition, Marie-Agnes Straka-Zimmermann of the Free Democrats and Katrin Göring-Eckardt of the Greens, have spoken out against Pope Francis’s statement that Ukraine should have the “courage of the white flag” and negotiate with Russia to end “Before Ukrainian victims wave the white flag, the Pope has to make loud and clear calls for cruel Russian criminals to take down their pirate flag, the symbol of death and Satan,” Straka-Zimmermann said in an interview with Funke Mediengruppe.
Straka-Zimmermann, who heads the Bundestag defence committee, also noted that the Pope has failed to criticise Patriarch Kirill of Moscow from the Russian Orthodox Church.
“Why in the name of God is he not condemning verbal incitements to kill Ukrainian people made by Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church and the former KGB agent?” Straka-Zimmermann asked.
She added that she, as a Catholic, was embarrassed that the Pope refrained from condemning Kirill.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/10/7445814/
I’ve been reading some of Hugh White’s and other’s stuff on China, Australian maritime defence and AUKUS. I got the impression that it is very unlikely that AUKUS will ever come to fruition, but that we will along the way part company with substantial funds. This being the case, if AUKUS is Plan A, do we have a Plan B?
I’ve long argued against tolls as simply lining the pockets of vested interests, rather than delivering better outcomes for road users – who are essentially taxed twice for road infrastructure. And now a review confirms my concerns.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/revealed-how-much-sydney-s-motorists-will-pay-in-tolls-over-the-next-three-decades-20240310-p5fb7e.html
Good god. There’s $1 billion that could’ve been used to improve infrastructure assets, but instead went to a tolling company because of an ‘underperforming’ toll road.
Taxpayers are getting screwed!
Wow, the Liberal Party in NSW is falling to bits! Split down the middle between the Moderates and the, probably, Christian Conservatives. The Anti Trans crew snatched the Vice Presidency!?! Just shows how out of step with the modern world the party has become. The Moderates would be well advised to engage in amalgamation talks with the Teals to form a real Liberal Party. And leave the Reactionary Conservatives to rot.
The Albanese government will streamline environmental approvals for resource projects, abolish 500 “nuisance” tariffs on imports from toothbrushes to tools, progress merger reform, and ease red tape for banks, in measures to boost flagging productivity.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the changes to environmental approvals, designed to result in a “faster yes or no”, should advance the passage of changes to bring forward $2.4 billion in petroleum resource rent tax.
The Treasurer, who will address The Australian Financial Review Business Summit on Monday, will also herald the abolition of the 500 nuisance tariffs as a major step in reducing the burden on business by saving it $30 million a year in compliance costs.
On the petroleum resource rent tax, the Treasurer will say that he has met Coalition demands for its support of the changes, including exempting current applications from approvals processes “so existing projects are assessed under a stable set of rules”. “In recent days, I’ve written back to the Shadow Treasurer [Angus Taylor] and Senator [Susan] McDonald regarding the PRRT, to assure them that some of the changes to environmental approval processes they are seeking to negotiate are already happening – for their own good reasons, not as a bargaining chip,” the Treasurer will tell the Summit.
Dr Chalmers, who is under pressure from the resources sector to deal with the Coalition instead of the Greens, needs the tax legislation through the Senate by the end of March. “Our reforms will deliver better outcomes, but they are not tied to the passage of the PRRT,” he will say. “The Coalition should support our sensible changes to the PRRT on their merits.”
The tax changes include limiting annual deductions for expenditure at 90 per cent of the project’s income each year from July. This will “bring forward” gas company payments, resulting in the coffers receiving $2.4 billion over the next four years earlier than they otherwise would.
Dr Chalmers will say his tariff changes are “the biggest unilateral tariff reform in at least two decades”.
Nuisance tariffs are defined as tariffs that raise little revenue, have negligible benefits for producers, but impose compliance burdens. Typically levied at no more than 2 per cent, they apply to hundreds of imported goods raging from tampons and dodgem cars, to toothbrushes, chopsticks, power tools and white goods.
Dr Chalmers, who will detail the full list of tariffs, and the cost of their removal, in the May budget, listed as an example 16 nuisance tariffs which between them raise $3.74 million a year.
Of these, the tariff that applies to menstrual and sanitary products raises $3 million, meaning the other 15 raise just $774,000. “As it stands, tariffs make these products more expensive, and cost more to administer,” he will say. “But these nuisance tariffs do nothing to protect Australian businesses and workers because they apply to goods that often arrive under a concessional rate. “So only on a small portion of goods, or sometimes none, is the tariff actually paid. “This means the government and businesses spend more administering and complying with the tariff system than we receive in revenue.”
In relation to environmental approvals, Dr Chalmers agreed with the need to update “Australia’s offshore regulatory gas arrangements and broader environmental approval processes”. He will also pledge more funding for data “to help identify environmental risks that will accelerate approvals and result in “faster yeses and nos”. Consultation requirements for offshore oil and gas storage regulatory approvals will be more targeted and effective, and there will be better upfront guidance on when approvals are required.
Last year, Mr Taylor and Senator McDonald, the resources spokeswoman, listed four key demands.
As well as demanding existing project applications, approved or not, to be carved out “from any future EPA process so as not to move the goalposts on industry yet again”, they called for the measures Dr Chalmers will announce on Monday, including “reforming the Offshore Environment Regulations under the Offshore Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Storage Act to provide clarity on consultation requirements and restart offshore gas investment”. In announcing the changes, Dr Chalmers will express his support for the importance of gas during the energy transition. “Our changes will … provide industry and investors the certainty they need to invest in sufficient supply of domestic gas and ensure Australia remains a reliable international supplier and investment partner,” he will say.
https://www.afr.com/business-summit/chalmers-to-abolish-500-nuisance-tariffs-clears-way-for-gas-tax-deal-20240307-p5fahz
the pope has been disapointing on the rusion war he seems to believe that ucrane should give in to putins agretion
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Anthony Albanese’s personal standing has begun to recover, and he is more trusted than Peter Dutton despite his broken promise on tax cuts, according to a new poll which suggests the government has arrested its declining fortunes, writes Phil Coorey about the latest AFR/Resolve poll.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-shows-signs-of-recovery-as-labor-stops-the-rot-20240310-p5fb6x
According to Ross Gittins, it’s the RBA who will decide how long the economy’s slump lasts.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-will-decide-how-long-the-economy-s-slump-lasts-20240310-p5fb7t.html
Australia is having a family-sized recession, says Alan Kohler who gives us the story in a series of charts.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/03/11/kohler-family-sized-recession
Matthew Knott and Rachel write that top energy policy experts are saying they are highly dubious about Coalition claims the nation could have a nuclear power plant running within 10 years as the opposition prepares to ignite a major debate on energy policy by nominating possible sites for Australian nuclear reactors. And yesterday Chris Bowen poured scorn and ridicule on the Coalition’s “plan” for large-scale nuclear power within a decade.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tell-him-he-s-dreaming-labor-blasts-coalition-plan-for-nuclear-power-in-a-decade-20240310-p5fb6i.html
This interview of an energy expert by Peter Fitzsimons is a “must read” as it has so many questions about the nuclear push asked and effectively answered.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/will-dutton-s-nuclear-power-play-work-i-asked-a-very-bright-spark-20240308-p5fau6.html
Peter Dutton is nailing nuclear energy for Australia to his economic renaissance mast. His earlier thought was that the electricity generating transition should be confined to SMRs (small modular reactors) conveniently placed in the basements of factories around Australia. He then expanded his concept to include the construction of large industrial reactors of 600 MW capacity and more built on sites occupied by former coal-fired generators, writes Richard Broinowski who lays out three realities that make Dutton’s SMR proposal unrealistic.
https://johnmenadue.com/peter-dutton-sprinkles-nuclear-stardust-into-the-climate-policy-vacuum/
It is 13 years since the world held our breath, crossed our fingers and learned of a place called Fukushima, which Peter Dutton and the Coalition seem to have forgotten, writes Dave Sweeney.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/memo-to-dutton-fukushimas-lessons-must-be-learned-not-forgotten,18406
New South Wales has the largest gap between its 2030 emissions reduction goals and the present pace of renewables rollout among the states, a performance that will make it harder for Australia to meet national goals unless addressed, a new report argues.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/11/nsw-lagging-on-rollout-of-renewables-meaning-australia-could-miss-2030-clean-energy-target
The rising cost of living is a grim reality and a growing political issue, but the disparity between incomes is turning Sydney into a tale of two cities. Top earners are more concentrated in the eastern suburbs, the inner city and the inner west, while western suburbs workers languish in relative poverty, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/income-inequality-a-sleeper-issue-that-threatens-our-egalitarian-ethos-20240310-p5fb6m.html
Nearly 500 tariffs on items including toothbrushes and toasters will be scrapped to cut business red tape and ease cost-of-living pressures in the largest reform of the system in at least 20 years, explains Rachel Clun.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/toothbrushes-to-dodgem-cars-cheaper-with-tariffs-on-chopping-block-20240308-p5faz5.html
The factional wars in the NSW Liberal party are still going along nicely. He says that it is the RBA that is facing a “test”, as the media love to describe things, rather than the political parties.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/don-harwin-elected-nsw-liberal-president-by-single-vote-20240310-p5fb9j.html
The sense of crisis surrounding the Victorian Liberal leadership is likely to soon deepen, with two self-described gender-critical feminists expected to issue separate defamation writs against John Pesutto in the Federal Court, writes Chip Le Grand.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/disunity-but-not-deterred-why-pesutto-still-wants-to-lead-20240309-p5fb32.html
Australia needs a war time government but instead we’re collectively sleepwalking through parochial denial about the growing rise of multipolarity and its consequences, writes Jemma Nott.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australia-needs-war-time-government-to-confront-global-crises,18407
Mark Kenny despairs that the US the electorate is descending into aggressive macrosocial identity politics in which there are few shared truths and agreement across the middle appears unattainable. Can American democracy survive this debasement? Historical lessons are not encouraging, he says, Kenny looks at how such behaviour might occur in Australia.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8549814/paid-parental-leave-imaginative-policy-to-frame-2025-election/?cs=14329
Dear old Gerard is still banging on about the ABC’s Israel/Gaza coverage,
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/media-watch-dog-abc-covered-the-israelhamas-war-without-fear-or-favour-or-so-they-say/news-story/3846a01927843a14d88cd1d4a79c8d86?amp=
Defence Minister Richard Marles has a proven, through AUKUS, he’s a naïve and incompetent buyer. He’s also proven, through a failed sale of Bushmaster military vehicles to Indonesia, he’s no better at sales. Rex Patrick and Philip Dorling provide an update in his wheelings and dealings with Indonesia.
https://michaelwest.com.au/indonesia-no-thanks-to-marles-bushmasters/
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir
David Rowe
Mark David
Peter Broelman
Badiucao
Matt Golding
A John Shakespeare gif
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.4262%2C$multiply_3.8519%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/028d0ab617fbb37f86f3d44dc8c9c2bfde6f24af
Jim Pavlidis
Glen Le Lievre with a gif
https://twitter.com/i/status/1766236092926513608
Leak
From the US
C@t:
They are going the way of the Republicans:
Losing traditional moderate voters: check
Losing voters in inner city and suburbs: check
Narrow-casting to appeal to perceived ‘white injustice’ grievance: check
Appealing more to voters in regional and rural areas: check
Losing young voters: check
All they need is a charismatic, yet divisive Trump-like leader and the transformation will be complete.
Confessions: Andrew Hastie! Plenty of shallow women will deem him handsome and thereby even negate the Liberal Party’s problem with women.
‘Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, March 10, 2024 at 10:54 pm
If only for his sake that Napoleon had read the horoscope as applied to him as a Leo as published on that day;
June the 18th is a good time to catch up with those household chores you’ve been putting off; for romance could be in the air. And also watch out for Blücher’s Prussian Cavalry on your left flank.
(with credit to Graeme Garden as quoted on I’m Sorry I Haven’t A Clue)’
————————————————–
That would have been the right flank.
Thank you, BK.
Golly. Don’t tell me that producers are fibbing for tax minimization purposes about the number of cattle they own!
To get to zero net fifty we need to kill 36 million cattle, 70 million sheep, around 10 million goats, 5 million donkeys, around one million camels, and around 2 million horses and buffalo.
We also need to stop eating meat and dairy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/11/how-many-cattle-are-there-in-australia-we-may-be-out-by-10-million
Thanks for the roundup BK. Dutton’s nuclear power reactor is another stalling action. After people realised that Small Mythical Reactors are mythical, now he has moved onto big, costly reactors.
The first new nuclear reactor built in the post cold war periond was Olkiluoto III in Finland. The contract was signed in 2005 and it finally was commissioned and online in the grid last year in 2023. That is 18 years. Finland has an existing nuclear power industry and considerably more engineering skills than Australia. We would have no chance in building one in under 20 years. Cost $40+ billion.
Thanks BK!
MaccaRB (from the end of the last thread):
“As a Sydney boy who enjoys AFL, I hope that you support the real Sydney team which smashed Collingwood on saturday night.
It was a great night at Mason’s Petting Zoo.
As they say: “once a cox, always a cox”.”
I do quite like GWS: vastly more so than the Swans (for whom, as a St Kilda supporter, my disdain goes back to when they were the more glamorous and successful neighbouring rival team: for league supporters I’m talking Easts vs Souths or Manly vs Norths). And I’m certainly not a fan of the Pies, although I don’t really have any particular dislike for Cox, who I think adds a bit of colour to the game.
I’m afraid I also don’t share your love for the writings of Peter Hartcher, who did a lot of dirty work for Rudd in 2012-13 and who comes across in print as being extraordinarily pompous (albeit slightly less on the Insiders, where I never minded him quite so much*). I have him close to the bottom ranking on my list of press gallery journos, just above Bernard Keane.
Laura TIngle, Michelle Grattan (apart from her strangely obsessive hatred of Gillard) and, while she was in the press gallery, Katherine Murphy are all vastly superior IMO. As was Laurie Oakes back in the day.
*I’m now four weeks into what I suspect will be a permanent detox from watching Insiders, and I feel great.
Confessions @ #14 Monday, March 11th, 2024 – 7:45 am
Andrew Hastie?
But goodness me! I just finished reading the story about the NSW ‘Liberals’ being taken over by the Conservatives, when I saw this story about the Victorian Liberals:
The sense of crisis surrounding the Victorian Liberal leadership is likely to soon deepen, with two self-described gender-critical feminists expected to issue separate defamation writs against John Pesutto in the Federal Court, writes Chip Le Grand.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/disunity-but-not-deterred-why-pesutto-still-wants-to-lead-20240309-p5fb32.html
TERFs, for goodness sake! Does the modern ‘Liberal’ Party really think the country wants to go the way of the Religious Right in America, Russia and Hungary!?! Attempting to force the country into this straightjacket is not going to work. The demographics are against it. And what the rising Millennial demographic thinks about it all.
Stuart
“ I’ve been reading some of Hugh White’s and other’s stuff on China, Australian maritime defence and AUKUS. I got the impression that it is very unlikely that AUKUS will ever come to fruition, but that we will along the way part company with substantial funds. This being the case, if AUKUS is Plan A, do we have a Plan B?”
In theory the UK SSN AUKUS class subs in Plan B and the Collins LOTE project is Plan C. The problem is if you read the articles by both Elizabeth Buchanan and Andrew Davies in that recent issue of Foreign Policy with Hugh White’s article, they both have even more reservations about the UK supplies SSN design than the supply of US Virginias. So Plan B is borderline at best and high risk.
As for Plan C, it is the same as the recently cancelled Anzac Class LOTE project. It is ill-defined, has not started, no start date, and may not occur. Nobody thinks extending submarine life out to 40 years is a good idea because 40 year old subs can sink. Most navies with experience running subs (e.g. UK, USA, France, Germany, Japan) don’t do it.
So in practice there is no Plan B to AUKUS that is effectively likely to happen. At least none are admitted in public. I think Marles does not know what to do in that situation and Chalmers is happy to keep taking the budget saving from ditching local construction ($2 billion/year).
Ahh …now we know why this nuclear red herring has been thrown out there.
Labor and the L/NP doing dirty deals for their fossil fuel partners. Fckn disgrace.
“… Dutton of 44-38 on clarity of vision and 38-32 on being good in a crisis.”
Useful attributes when there’s water lapping at your door.
What does Pope Francis have to say about this?
“Russian forces are increasing their use of ammunition containing poisonous chemicals on the front line, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavria Group of forces, reported on March 10.”
https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-increases-using-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine/
Lars Von Trier says:
“The polls all seem 51-52 to Labor atm. Is this herding ?”
Morgan 53.5 – 46.5.
So, nah.
Hands up those who read the detailed questions within the AFR polling and laughed at the figures
Does this polling come from AFR subscribers, so those who promote nuclear and the reinstatement of the Albanese government broken promise on tax cuts?
Dutton better in a crisis, which panders to the “crisis” of inflation, inflation which gained its foothold under the watch of the prior government because inflation is not 2% one day and 8% the next day
As the factors which drive inflation emerge over time and consolidate absent a response (the RBA being slow to move as one response) so the moderation occurs over time (by incremental attention by Central Bankers – so 25bbp increases not 100bbp or more increases so process)
Then there is the impact of government deficits noting the deficits of the prior government as a driver of inflation, so in simple terms, supply of cash to the economy resulting in demand exceeding supply with the impact on prices due to competition for goods and services Supply was disrupted, and remains disrupted, by climate, by the Pandemic and manufacture and logistics constraints and now by a Regional War impacting energy and produce availability globally and advantaging stable supply Nations such as Australia noting Australia has limited supply down to a population of just 27 million as an Island continent versus Europe, the Americas and S-E Asia where Nations have common borders
Adding that, in the normal course so not inflationary, government deficits which improve society including infrastructure spending are acceptable as investment into the future and to the benifit of the future
Remembering always that government is government with the responsibilities of government to society (so loss making programmes to facilitate a cohesive society, not everyone equal because everyone being equal is not achievable for the raft of reasons it is not – including human ambition and competition. Only one person can top the grades in education)
Government is not a household with a household budget, paying off the car and home loan to free income into retirement which stage of life is advantaged by having no debt
Government is perpetual – it does not retire
Business also is perpetual so carries debt – the necessity of business to service that debt (including paying dividends to Shareholders) AND to retain profit to contribute to the future growth of the business (the remainder contribution by bankers and trade creditors)
So also different to government because business is necessarily driven by profit – otherwise Creditors or bankers appoint Receivers to call in the debt
And business is said the AFR (declining on circulation?) market – so advocating for business including that the most effective form of regulation is self regulation (by business) and that austerity (by government) delivers confidence (to business) which will trickle down to you and me so advantaging Business Balance Sheets
Hence the narrative the AFR promotes – including by its polling nonsense
Media is big (but declining) business
It seeks to influence accordingly
I also don’t rate Hartcher. He was too easily led by the Rudd backers in their attempts to undermine their own government with whispers of ‘Rudd to challenge any day now’. Except when those opportunities arose, Rudd was nowhere to be seen, contrary to what Hartcher had been writing about for months, if not years on end.
But what would the Prime Minister of New Zealand know compared to Hugh White, the darling of the Anti AUKUS crowd of Armchair Admirals?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/excellent-speech-nz-prime-minister-backs-penny-wong-in-keating-spat-20240308-p5fayu.html
Looking forward to milder conditions in my neck of woods tomorrow.
Also hoping for some rain on the horizon. It is so dry……..
Hmmm shooting the messenger a number of polls now have showed that the negative rating is worse for Albanese than it is for Dutton.Shorten is sniffing around for labor leadership.
Labor federally etc to boost productivity needs to stop putting people in positions via sexist and racist quotas that people would not be in if based on merit.
Reduce numbers of students etc coming in will help polls but labor will not do this.
Overdue for a boat arrival sadly.
As already mentioned, I don’t care about the Royal family, but something very strange is going on.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/first-picture-of-princess-catherine-since-surgery-recalled-over-manipulation-claims/9144cf55-b7fd-42f0-8387-da77b7e3eb8e
A bit rich for Nine to baulk at manipulated images…
Nine apologises for altered image of Victorian MP
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/nine-apologises-for-altered-image-of-victorian-mp-20240130-p5f13l.html
Pueo
Channel 9 are following the edict of the big news agencies who say the photo has been manipulated
#weatheronPB
Properly wet earth,
feeds the growing greenery.
The sun waits its turn.
The only thing that makes sense re the Royal family saga is either Kate Middleton is seriously still unwell or she is separated from the future king.
It is tres weird how this is being managed.
c@t Have you ever read it? Here it is: Note the title:
1
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF AUSTRALIA,
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT
BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND, AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FOR THE EXCHANGE
OF NAVAL NUCLEAR PROPULSION INFORMATION
https://www.aph.gov.au/-/media/02_Parliamentary_Business/24_Committees/244_Joint_Committees/JSCT/2021/AUKUS_ENNPIA/2_AUKUS_treaty_text.pdf?la=en&hash=DE9C7BF15754F72E42A611ECAE86699D5A4F9216
There are NO pillars, first or second. The word ‘pillar’ does not occur in the document. The document has no time-lines, even for exchange of information. As a basis for expenditure by our government, it is worth as much as the paper it is not written on. Your mindless ‘support’ for a vague wish list involving us with two borderline failing societies is just silly. As a ‘security guarantee’ the so-called treaty is non-actionable verbiage.
The PILLAR 2 stuff is just part of a ‘joint statement’ released after a meeting in California, hosted by US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd J. Austin III, and attended by Marles and Grant Shapps, UK Secretary of State for Defence, last December. It has no standing whatsoever as an actionable agreement.
Read it:
https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/statements/2023-12-02/aukus-defense-ministers-meeting-joint-statement
It is a flowery word-salad of abstruse terms and fulsome self promotion, which delivers the outstanding news that progress on the ‘Treaty’ to date involves around 15 Australians receiving some ill-defined training. That’s it. Wow!
Whenever I see or hear Peter Hartcher, before taking note of his ideas and agreeing or disagreeing with them , I have to remove from my mind the title/description conferred on him years ago by Bushfire Bill of “Pencil neck”.
Edit: removed pointless final sentence.
Trust C@t to align herself with a right wing marketing fuckwit, cum NZ National Party political spiv over a deep thinker like Hugh White (not to mention just about everyone else in the Australian strategic community who hasnt chugged deep on the AUKUS Kool-aid).
But I digress:
@Socrates, responding to Stuart:
Stuart:
“ I’ve been reading some of Hugh White’s and other’s stuff on China, Australian maritime defence and AUKUS. I got the impression that it is very unlikely that AUKUS will ever come to fruition, but that we will along the way part company with substantial funds. This being the case, if AUKUS is Plan A, do we have a Plan B?”
____
Socrates:
In theory the UK SSN AUKUS class subs in Plan B and the Collins LOTE project is Plan C. The problem is if you read the articles by both Elizabeth Buchanan and Andrew Davies in that recent issue of Foreign Policy with Hugh White’s article, they both have even more reservations about the UK supplies SSN design than the supply of US Virginias. So Plan B is borderline at best and high risk.
As for Plan C, it is the same as the recently cancelled Anzac Class LOTE project. It is ill-defined, has not started, no start date, and may not occur. Nobody thinks extending submarine life out to 40 years is a good idea because 40 year old subs can sink. Most navies with experience running subs (e.g. UK, USA, France, Germany, Japan) don’t do it.
So in practice there is no Plan B to AUKUS that is effectively likely to happen. At least none are admitted in public. I think Marles does not know what to do in that situation and Chalmers is happy to keep taking the budget saving from ditching local construction ($2 billion/year).
______
To my mind the likely ‘Plan B’ will be for the Australian Government to ‘forgive’ the American promise to sell us two second hand Virginia Class Subs in 2032-33 and 2035-36 respectively and – eventually -the SNN-AUKUS build program in favour of buying four new ‘Block VII’ Virginia Class subs between 2038 and the mid-late 40s, with options to buy either SSN-AUKUS subs built in the UK or SSNX subs built in America.
To ease the butt-hurt that we won’t be building any SSN submarines in Australia I suspect that some future government will announce that we will instead be building certain components for the American and UK submarine programs, and perhaps quite a number of large unmanned or optionally manned battery-electric ‘mini submersibles’ at Osborne.
I think that is the most likely ‘Plan B’ and ‘Plan C’ right there.
By 2038, the in built capability gap in the USN SSN fleet will have eased and will in fact be substantially improving once their boat building yards spool up from producing 1.2-1.4 boats per year to 3 boats a year over the next 10-15 years (ie. they should be putting out 1 x Columbia Class SSBN, pls 2 x Virginia Class SSNs per year, and their SSN fleet should be over 50 and they should have 10 out of a planned 14 Columbia Class boats in the water by then); HENCE there will be little opposition from anyone in america – Trump or no Trump this year – for us to buy 1 Virginia Class SSN every 2-3 years (and I’d suggest that the RAN receiving the first new SSN in 2038, the second in 20240, 3rd in 2043 and the fourth in 2045/6 would be a feasible timeframe for both the US and RAN: of course the RAN will have to increase its current 800 trained submariner personnel to around 1,200 over the next 22-23 years).
So ‘the interim’ will require the venerable Colins Class to undertake a further full three service cycles to maintain current capabilities – over the one that is already starting now (which empathises the madness in not going ahead with either a ‘son of collins’ build program last decade or the first block of 4 Attack Class subs this decade).
If Unicorns exist and BAE actually get their shit together with SSN-AUKUS then perhaps ‘phase 2’ could go ahead, but probably 5+ years later than currently envisaged. Ie. we could get SSN-AUKUS subs from the late 2040s, whether they be built at Burrow (UK) or in Osborne (Aust).
Russia appears to have sacked its top naval commander after a series of humiliating setbacks in the Black Sea, where its warships have been pounded by Ukrainian drones and missiles.
Two Russian news sources said Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, the Russian navy’s commander-in-chief since May 2019, had been fired and replaced by Admiral Alexander Moiseev.
Admiral Moiseev trained as a submariner under the Soviet Union. In 1998, he was credited with firing the first commercial micro-satellites into space from the nuclear-powered submarine he commanded.
Both Izvestia, a Moscow-based newspaper linked to the Kremlin, and Fontaka, a St Petersburg news agency, quoted unnamed sources confirming the change of command at the top of the Russian navy, based in St Petersburg.
Labor piggies with snout in troughs.
What arrogance finance Minister Fed labor 42,000 on com car driving his backside around.
Fed employment minister failure Burke by name 58,000 on junket to USA.
What contempt when people rents are through the roof through an insane immigration,student policy due to the federal labor government not caring.
Albanese 45% disliked Dutton 43%.Dutton is less hated than Albanese .
Albanese needs to watch his back shorten is waiting to pounce .
Pied Piper: “… a number of polls now have showed that the negative rating is worse for Albanese than it is for Dutton”
Say wha’?
Freshwater (“the least favourable federal poll series for Labor”), as reported above:
Albanese: +37 -45 = net -8
Dutton: +30 -43 = net -13
Back to school for you, PP.
To give heads up for Four Corners program on ABX on Israel-Hamas war, John Lyons said that 3 children die every hour in Gaza and Gaza is uninhabitable. He also said that Biden is helpless to do anything about it. Can you believe it that the POTUS cannot do anything about it!
-8 and -13 , yuk and yukkier.
Stuart says:
Monday, March 11, 2024 at 7:04 am
I’ve been reading some of Hugh White’s and other’s stuff on China, Australian maritime defence and AUKUS. I got the impression that it is very unlikely that AUKUS will ever come to fruition, but that we will along the way part company with substantial funds. This being the case, if AUKUS is Plan A, do we have a Plan B?
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Not if the Alternate Liberal Party, the ALP, are still the Government. Their loyalty to the USA over Australians ( think of the recent $4.7billion given to the USA as a down payment on AUKUS last November – how the 3.5million households needing Foodbanks, OzHarvest in 2023, 2024 could have benefitted?) is great.
But the LNP, minus Morrison?? After all they had no qualms in abandoning the French submarines. But probably also unlikely.
Maybe only chance if more Climate 200 and Greens people are elected to the HoR and Senate. And Labor becomes a minority government. And Albanese and those who made the original decision to support Morrison’s plan – Wong?, go.
A bloke I have never heard of, a bloke who was not good enough to play test cricket and a Kiwi spy
https://www.cricket.com.au/high-performance/coaching#:~:text=Michael%20Di%20Venuto,at%20Surrey%20in%20the%20UK.
Pied Piper. says:
“Labor piggies with snout in troughs.”
You misspelt ‘Nationals’:
‘A handful of federal politicians are spending more than two-thirds of their time on the road and in hotels, with one Nationals MP billing taxpayers for accommodation nearly every night over a four-month period, latest travel expenses data shows.
‘Andrew Willcox, the first-time member for Dawson, spent 113 days travelling over a 116-day period between August and December 2022, according to the most recent independent parliamentary expense authority’s (Ipea) data.’
‘Ranking first in travel expenses was Victorian Nationals senator, Bridget McKenzie.
‘The shadow infrastructure minister’s travel allowance bill came up to $29,305 over a period of 108 days. Ninety-nine of those nights were spent in accommodation across regional Victoria and capital cities, averaging $296 a night.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/09/australian-politicians-spending-two-thirds-of-time-on-the-road-at-taxpayer-expense-data-shows
The good news for the Australian cricket team is that this test is the last one they play until November 2024.
The opponent? India for a 5 test series.