Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)

More evidence of strong support for the stage three tax cut changes, but with Labor failing to make ground and facing a close result in Dunkley.

RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.

Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.

The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.

In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.

Federal preselection news:

Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.

• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.

Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,288 comments on “Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 17 of 26
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  1. leftieBrawlersays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:21 pm
    C@t I’m now more leaning towards entropy potentially being some kind of chat GPT4 or similar AI deployment to test how it goes in a forum type of setting?

    Leftie keeps crossing the lines. (Shaking my head emoji)

  2. Entropy says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 1:11 pm
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:02 pm
    Entropy says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:51 am
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:25 am

    Certainly in the case i posted above @10:51pm an ultra far right Jewish person with access to large amount of funds


    Why did it matter that they were Jewish (assuming you are correct anyway)?



    They are different. One party is being doxed based on their religious/ethnic status. The other did not undertake an aborted defamation action because of their religious ethnic status. Or are you saying otherwise? Hopefully not. Actually you may not need to answer the question if it gets William Bowe in a spot of bother.

    As for your “Note”, the media does it isn’t a high integrity threshold.

    Did you read the original post or just the snippet TPOF posted. I didn’t wish to give the individual any publicity by using his name. So i used a descriptor of him that included his ethnicity. Which TPOF seems to think is crime. Which he evoked the special word he has for such crimes. TPOF also queried the person was of this ethnicity (see above). So i dropped the idea of not naming him and did so anyway. If i used the descriptor of black African male for someone, would you believe my offence was the same?.


    I would like to think I would see it similarly if you would use “black African male”. For instance, I didn’t like it when Dutton referred to “African gang violence”.

    Logically there are two conditions:

    1. you consider characterisation by ethnicity as the same when a person is victim of such characterisation and when they are not, or

    2. you consider these situations as different.

    If the former, shame on you as you are perpetuating prejudice. If the latter, you would resile from use of ethnicity to characterise the person. And I don’t really care about any fight you may have with TPOF 🙂

  3. Dutton:
    The Albanese government has released hard-core criminals from immigration detention, including seven murderers, 37 sex offenders and 72 other violent offenders, putting Australians at risk. At a time when Australian families are living through a cost of living crisis and struggling to make ends meet, Can the minister confirm hard-core criminals he has released, including rapists and murderers, have now received over $3 million in free accommodation and welfare payments?
    Once again for the people up the back and to the right, it was a high court decision which found indefinite detention was unconstitutional. Governments cannot ignore the high court. When you complete a custodial sentence in Australia, as an Australian, you are released.

    Australia gives welfare payments to people who have been in jail. The alternative, particularly in this case, would be that people would be left to fend for themselves, in the community and given the Coalition’s concerns over the people in the cohort, how on earth is that safer?

    The Guardian.

  4. I’m with AE on this one, Biden should sit this election out.

    That presser the other day was terrible. He went out there to specifically say ‘my mind is great’ then fluffed a line with the Pres of Mexico. If I was a US citizen who voted for the Democrats I’d be in the phone to Dem HQ screaming down the phone for them to find a new candidate.

  5. Mavis @ #797 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 2:05 pm


    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 1:54 pm

    [‘Mavis, such optimism is admirable. But the question then is, will “normalcy” prevail, which was your last, dare I say, wayward prediction. (disclaimer: no, like it didn’t this last time).’]

    By nature, I’m an optimist. I’m not quite sure what you mean by my ‘last…wayward prediction’.

    You predicted that Biden would win and “normalcy” would return. Repeatedly. I remember well because of the choice of that word. “Normality” would have been my go-to, and “normalcy”jumped out at me, but neither here nor there, tomayto, tomahto. But back then I thought it betrayed an optimism, let’s say, that was at odds with what was really going on. And it’s a lot worse now.

  6. Goodness, Meher’s assessment of Morrison is soooooooo kind.

    Naturally he blames the public servants for the multiple ministry thing and the very existence of Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison on Labor. Let’s have a look at Meher Morrison’s achievements:

    1. Wrecked relations with China. Cost $20 billion a year in trade punishments.
    2. Single worst defence purchase decision in the history of federation.
    3. Wrecked relations with France… potentially both our most reliable supplier AND our most reliable ally in the South Pacific.
    4. Wrecked relations with Pacific nations including, notably, New Guinea and the Solomons. Lost the Solomons to China.
    5. Biodiversity was a trainwreck under Morrison.
    6. Deliberately trashed what was left of the APS.
    7. Fostered the single most deadly government program by way of Robodebt.
    8. Trashed the ABC.
    9. Trashed the NDIS.
    10. White-anted Medicare.
    11. Generated a trillion dollar debt. While some of this was an acceptable policy response to Covid, a lot of it was pissed up the wall into the maws of crony capitalists.
    12. Ignored growing corruption that was all around him.
    13. Fostered misogyny at a national scale.
    14. Created a climate hostile to the LGBTIQ+ community.
    15. Refused to deal with a series of failed or failing defence purchases.
    16. Oversaw the delay of vaccine purchases for covid, generating unnecessary lockdown periods.
    17. Ran dead on Indigenous affairs.
    18. Set up the mother of all housing crises.
    19. Having set up a crisis national cabinet then systematically undermined it with leaks and with ministers deployed to talk down various state leaders.
    20. Made prime ministerial lying a commonplace.
    21. Undermined national governance by secretly appointing himself minister for many things.
    22. Stuffed around with the separation between church and state.
    23. He delayed Australia’ climate fight by four years.
    24. Trashed the MDB Plan by ignoring both the corruption involved and the inadequate management of irrigation water.
    25. For political purposes, bastardized the tax structure by giving Western Australian a freebie.
    26. Encouraged the national vehicle fleet to adopt every larger gas guzzlers.

  7. Entropy

    No. It’s not me. The original poster is someone else who thought they had a special licence.

    I’m speaking for the site and for my annoyance at posters who think they are exempt. Whatever the side taken by the person making the post it shouldn’t be made. And it certainly shouldn’t be revived in its entirety 18 hours later, even if to criticise the author.

  8. Ven I said that with no malice, but rather a genuine question I have.

    Nothing wrong with inquiry-based mindsets and a natural curiosity in things

  9. Latest Essential.

    Key Insights

    There is majority support for the revised Stage 3 tax cuts (57%)

    There is support for limiting negative gearing, but support is still less than a majority (44%)

    There is strong support for the right to disconnect (59%)

  10. It isnt that he fluffed the name. That is just Biden. His problem is he looks and acts and talks ‘frail’.

    Trump fluffs more lines. Perversely, his large stature covers for his frailty.

    Biden reminds me a little of Reagan (iirc, i was v young). People trust him to select/appoint capable people in cabinet and in advisors and beyond. That is Bidens strongest selling point.

    But yeah, I am not convinced Biden is the best choice for 2024.

  11. @Mostly Interested:

    “ I’m with AE on this one, Biden should sit this election out.”


    You know, I’m actually in two minds about this. Frankly, as bad as Biden is perceived to be (and at the end of the day the adage ‘politics is perception’ rings true), it appears to me that there is simply no one else who is likely to command the national stage. This is a failure of two generations of progressives in America.

    Looking back now it is clear that the high water mark for progressive boomers in America was the Clinton Administration- its been all down hill since then largely because the boomers became the ultimate consumer materialist capitalist sellouts by the time of the ‘Republican Revolution’ of 1994. My generation – Gen X – has simply failed to launch. Only one person who is capable of bridging the generational gap on a nation candidate – but unfortunately President Obama is ineligible to run for a third term.

    Anyone who things that an answer to any question concerning American national level politics is ‘Gavin Newsome’, ‘Kamala Harris’, ‘Michelle Obama’ and so forth is asking the wrong question. America is well and truly fucked. In freefall.

    Edited: despite my frustrations above, is this the ONE possible last minute possible saviour for democrats – and a continuation of the enlightenment in America – this year?,in%202024%20to%20replace%20him.

  12. TPOFsays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:12 pm
    nath says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:06 pm
    TPOF is special. If someone breaks the moratorium that gives him license to break the moratorium.


    How did I break the moratorium?

    In your earlier post you appear to be justifying the breaking of the moratorium. By claiming someone else broke it first. You appear to be speaking “for”,” on behalf of”or “as” a poster called “BTS”. I’m not sure what your exact relationship with “BTS” is?. Though you do seem to be saying it is alright for them to do so, as some other undisclosed poster has done so already. Again something we only have your word for though.

  13. leftieBrawlersays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:20 pm
    Ven I said that with no malice, but rather a genuine question I have.

    Nothing wrong with inquiry-based mindsets and a natural curiosity in things


    I suspect anyone Leftie thinks is more intelligent than him. Must be Artificial Intelligence” as no human could be smarter than Leftie?. I expect with this mindset, that Leftie will accuse most of this blog of being AI at sometime.

  14. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:08 pm

    As William Munny said when he shot Billy the House in the face:

    “Fair ain’t got nothing to do with it”.


    Little Bill Daggett:
    You just shot an unarmed man.

    Bill Munny:
    He should have armed himself if he’s gonna decorate his saloon with my friend.

  15. OC. What are going on about? Coitamundra’s future is clearly in the very best of hands, notwithstanding the denigration of this fine town by a poster earlier today.

  16. “ABC flooded with complaints on Israel-Hamas(The Oz)
    The taxpayer-funded broadcaster has received thousands of complaints since the Israel-Hamas war started, Senate Estimates has been told.”

    I suppose Newscorp is whiter than white and gets no complaints at all. They are truly are full of shit. Its about time they got rid of this stupid obsession with the ABC and other media organisations.

  17. And I think Mal Meninga was an excellent politician. He demonstrated a quality very rare in Australian politics: an ability to make an accurate assessment of his own capabilities.

    Paradoxically, that probably means that he would have performed much better in the role than many who have pursued their political ambitions more intensely.

  18. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:13 pm
    Goodness, Meher’s assessment of Morrison is soooooooo kind.

    Naturally he blames the public servants for the multiple ministry thing and the very existence of Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison on Labor. Let’s have a look at Meher Morrison’s achievements:

    Good list IMO BW.

  19. ItzaDream:

    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:12 pm

    When referring to the noun ‘normalcy’ instead of ‘normality’ (the former, more often used in the US than here, but either word is acceptable) I meant that Trump’s term in office was “abnormal” & another term would be “catastrophically abnormal”. I’m off.

  20. TPOFsays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:25 pm

    You are a paradigm for Dunning and Kruger.

    Again the use of abuse instead of answering the accusation in the post. I thought Nath was justified in his claim. In my previous 2.22 pm post i point out why i believe so. It was your choice to use abuse and not address the post though. Which is probably a good spot to stop, shalom.

  21. Entropy says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 1:32 pm
    Possibly the quote is an adaption of the song lyric line from “Loch Lomond”. Though obviously reversed and the road removed.

    O ye’ll tak’ the high road, and I’ll tak’ the low road,

    From the Jacobite rebellion period of Scottish history.


    Speed bonnie boat, like a bird on the wing
    Onward! The sailors cry
    Carry the lad that’s born to be King
    Over the sea to Skye…

  22. meher baba @ #821 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 2:36 pm

    OC. What are going on about? Coitamundra’s future is clearly in the very best of hands, notwithstanding the denigration of this fine town by a poster earlier today.

    I love the photo; Boyd at 67 with beer gut and stubbie in hand.
    From memory he was suspended so many times, no eventually no club would have him and he ended his days playing for St Helen’s or Wigan or someone.
    I found this snippet of Boyd’s politics – particularly in relation to Roy Master’s Fibros vs Silvertails motivational strategy.

    …As a proselytiser for Marxism, Masters was significantly less successful. Masters reports that Les Boyd, a central figure in the Magpies’ predilection for fisticuffs, is ‘a life-long capitalist who now
    owns half Cootamundra and has only ever voted Liberal’. At the time the pocket battleship Boyd regarded his coach’s version of working-class oppression as ‘bullshit’.

  23. leftieBrawlersays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:20 pm
    Ven I said that with no malice, but rather a genuine question I have.

    Nothing wrong with inquiry-based mindsets and a natural curiosity in things

    Mail order bride
    AI impersonation
    are based “inquiry-based mindsets and a natural curiosity in things”.
    Ok I get it.

  24. I didn’t say ScoMo was any good, I just said that, with a bit more experience under his belt he would have been a more effective PM than he turned out to be.

    The guy is undoubtedly smarmy, supercilious, untrustworthy, at times dishonest, and imbued with all the faux sympathy of the deeply religious. But, as a politician, the guy had a fair bit of talent. And to some extent as a policy maker and implementer: he stopped the boats and managed COVID passably well. The ABC was a bit unfair towards him re China: he was nowhere near as much of a China-hater than his two predecessors, but he happened to be in charge when the relationship turned really sour. Perhaps he contributed to that through misjudgements, or perhaps it was going to happen anyway: I think the jury’s out on that one.

    In the end, he failed as PM because he let himself down. And he is an easy guy to hate, so feel free to go ahead and hate him. My GP says that people who are full of hate and anger live longer.

  25. leftieBrawler says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:52 am
    Moratorium P1- I’d hate to see you be forced to use up some PB long service leave


    You’re a laugh a minute.

    You actually campaign to get people kicked off this site.

    You’ve certainly implored William to kick me off on more than one occasion.

  26. Where is Dandy?
    Victoria energy spot price is currently a whopping $17,000 Mwh. SA is -$60 (in other words, if you are on real time energy contract, SAPN is paying you to use energy and charging you to feed in).

    Two things.
    1. FMD Victoria!
    2. How does this incentivise SA residential solar and battery peeps to feed in to help Victoria out? The interconnectors must be at capacity.

  27. Rainman that was said tongue in cheek, P1 is a quality contributor sans the labor hate and I doubt William would ever ban her unless it was something unprecedented.

    Ven, try putting more effort into prosecuting some insightful political arguments instead of the maintaining of a living document of all the times I have apparently caused you offence ?

  28. Rainmansays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 2:53 pm

    Leftie is a stirrer. Though i don’t think there is huge malice in his quibs. Either ignore them or fire back a quib in a similar vein. Is my suggestion.

  29. Follow the money with Dopey Joe. Google AIPAC.

    Robert (Durden)@realrobdurden
    Reminder: Joe Biden is the biggest recipient of AIPAC money of all time, and it’s not close.

  30. meher baba says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 1:37 pm

    Have to disagree with some of that.

    Haven’t watched the series. In politics only believe the ones who tell you that they voted against you.

    Best thing Abbott did was getting rid of the Carbon Tax.
    Best thing Turnbull did was changing the Senate Voting system. (And frankly I can’t remember anything else he did).
    Best thing Morrison did was AUKUS.

  31. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:18 pm
    Are you ESL? You seem to have trouble spelling certain common words, like ‘too’ and ‘won’t’. ‘Anyway’ used instead of any way.


    Why do you care?

    The purpose of language is transactional; whether it’s trading in goods and services, or ideas and opinions.

    Language is used to make meaning and Entropy’s meaning is always clear.

    The constant questioning of a poster’s first language is racist.

    I hope I used my words to make myself clear.

  32. FUBAR says:
    Best thing Turnbull did was changing the Senate Voting system. (And frankly I can’t remember anything else he did).

    Did you support Same Sex Marriage Fubar?

  33. There is no malice whatsoever Entropy, we’ve had our differences but I’m of the belief we moved on from them some time ago.

    Re my musings about you and AI was based around the uniquely neutral and diplomatic feel to your posts and arguments. Nothing more, nothing less.

  34. I’ve ignored Meher’s propensity to tory-pollyannisms for several months, but his pro-ScoMo post at 2:52 simply takes the cake.

    ScoMo did NOT stop the boats. kRudd’s ‘no visa’ policy did. By the the time the much vaunted ‘Operation Sovereign Borders’ started later that year, the flood had reduced to a trickle. Even with meher’s tory spin it could only ever objectively be called a mopping up exercise. In truth it wasn’t even that.

    Managed Covid ok? My head just exploded.

  35. anyway
    /ˈɛnɪweɪ/ adverb

    used to end a conversation, to change the subject, or to resume a subject after interruption.

    “‘Anyway, you’re an idiot.”

  36. leftieBrawlersays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 3:09 pm
    There is no malice whatsoever Entropy, we’ve had our differences but I’m of the belief we moved on from them some time ago.

    Re my musings about you and AI was based around the uniquely neutral and diplomatic feel to your posts and arguments. Nothing more, nothing less.

    All is good. You took a pot shot at me. I waited my time, till i could see the whites of your eye, then fired back. I think we a square anyway. If you want argue it wasn’t a pot shot to begin with, that’s up to you.

  37. FUBAR at 3.07 pm

    “Best thing Morrison did was AUKUS.”

    You don’t seem to realise that it was a political wedge that back-fired, particularly courtesy of Macron.

    It was never a serious policy. This was obvious from the few comments on Nemesis 3 from Reynolds. The idea of needing nuclear subs urgently was, and remains, a joke. It was just part of the dodgy wedge.

  38. Fwiw Andrew, as far as I know Obama could actually still run as VP and then succeed to the Presidency on Biden’s death or incapacity. Vote Biden get Obama.

    He won’t do it, but it could be done.

    You’re right though there’s such a leadership gap between the aging generations of Clintons and Biden and Pelosi et al who grew up in a time when the Democrats were really just the less right wing of two right wing parties, and the young leaders of the hard left who remain unelectable for too much of the Democratic voting base.

    Biden became President as the most affable old guard leader left, the most tolerable to the hard left (more so than Hillary) while being in with the old school Democrats and African-Americans who make up such a large proportion of the Democrat vote.

    You’re right that nobody has really risen up to grab the imagination and bridge that gap. It is hard under a sitting President from your own party to be out there pushing your own barrow without sabotaging your own side but Democrats had 4 years of Trump to come forward and none did.

    As Gen Ys turn 40, hopefully one of them didn’t join in the charisma bypass that Gen X Dems apparently had and rises up to lead the movement over there.

  39. With SA’s negative power price today, a mate just told me if he had a big outdoor electric heater he would have made $20 running it full power today. On the same day Victorians are paying a fortune for power.

    And they call it a “National” energy market.

  40. ABC News

    Leaked photo reveals dismantled Taipans waiting in warehouse for burial, reigniting frustrations not to send aircraft to Ukraine

    • In short: The army’s decommissioned Taipans are lying dismantled in a warehouse awaiting burial.
    • A leaked photo being shared has reignited frustrations at the government’s decision not to send the aircraft to Ukraine.
    • What’s next? The Taipans remain due for burial, with some parts being sold to overseas buyers.

  41. Boer – poor comprehension on ur part.

    This was a procedural hearing on discovery of documents not a substantive hearing to decide the case.

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