The fortnightly Essential Research results find no change for the major parties on the primary vote, with results inclusive of a 5% undecided component putting the Coalition at 34% and Labor at 32%. The Greens are up two to 12%, recovering half of a four-point drop in the previous poll, while One Nation are steady on 7%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is 49% to 47%, the remainder being undecided, compared with 48% to 46% last time. I noted a fortnight ago that gender breakdowns from the previous poll presented the opposite from the usual pattern, which has distinctly not been repeated this time.
The survey includes bi-monthly favourability ratings, as distinct from approval ratings, in which respondents rate the leaders’ performance on a scale of zero to ten. Anthony Albanese’s reading is negative for the first time, with a four point drop in ratings designated positive (seven to ten) to 33% and a six-point increase in negative (one to three) to 35%. Peter Dutton gets his best results since November, his positive rating is up five to 32% and negative steady on 35%.
The supplementary questions largely related to international affairs, including a question as to whether Australia should provide “active assistance” to Israel or Palestine, the nature of such assistance presumably being hinted at by the either/or (or neither) response options. Seventeen per cent favoured such assistance going to Israel compared with 21% who favoured it going “to Palestine”, an ambiguous proposition under the circumstances. Thirty-five per cent rated the Israeli response proportionate, down seven from four weeks ago, compared with 25% for disproportionate, up seven. Thirty-one per cent rated themselves satisfied with the Australian government’s response, down six, with dissatisfied up one to 20%.
The Albanese government scores a 25% positive rating on its handling of international relations, with 45% for average and 30% for negative. Forty-four per cent rate Australia’s relationship with China as better since Labor came to power, compared with 11% for worse (allowance should perhaps be made here for those who consider a good relationship a bad thing). Twenty-seven per cent said active support should go to the United States in its tensions with China, compared with 6% for the opposite proposition and 67% for “stay as neutral as possible”. Thirty-nine per cent felt the AUKUS partnership would make Australia more secure, down one from March, compared with 18% for less secure (down three) and 42% for no difference (up three). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150.
Further poll news:
• The Age/Herald provided further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on aid to the principals in the Middle East conflict, identified as Hamas and Israel in the question, with response options specifying Israel, Gaza or both equally. The results were 21%, 13% and 47% for medical and food aid, 14%, 9% and 29% for accepting refugees, and 21%, 4% and an enigmatic 8% for providing military equipment, with a respective 30%, 48% and 66% favouring providing no such aid at all.
• The weekly Roy Morgan result is the second poll published this term that fails to have Labor ahead on two-party preferred, the first being its result of three weeks ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor, down one-and-a-half, 36.5% for the Coalition, up one-and-a-half, and 13% for the Greens, down half. The 50-50 two-party result is based on respondent-allocated preferences, which are again flowing to Labor more weakly than they did at the election. Applying the election preference flows, I make it 51-49 in favour of Labor. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1397.
• Roy Morgan also has an SMS poll with a forced response question on whether Israel should withdraw immediately from Gaza, finding 51% for yes and 49% for no. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1650.
The broader context of the HC visa decision is that Australia has always had the Constitutional and legislative right to remove non-citizens on character grounds. And cancel whatever visa they are on.
This decision is held by the Minister, who acts on the advice of the bureaucracy. Some decisions are straightforward – sentenced for a crime greater than 12 months imprisonment and the like. Other decisions have a degree of ministerial discretion, like the regular divisive crackpot RWNJ who attempt to bring their bile to our shores.
All well and good. Those convicted by the courts for the criminal offences get to spend time in jail, like everyone else. When their time is up – their sentence has been served -it’s either escorted to the plane for deportation, or sent to Villawood or other detention centre to await said fate.
Mostly this works, and has the effect of, amongst other things, ‘keeping the community safe’.
A person’s visa may be cancelled under section 501(2) of the Migration Act if: the Minister reasonably suspects that the person does not pass the character test, and. the person does not satisfy the Minister that they pass the character test.
Sometimes deportation is not practicable in the forseeable future (HC decision) – there are stateless people, at least one of the current cohort is facing the death penalty in Malaysia, individual issues for some from the world’s bad jurisdictions like Iran, Afghanistan, Myanmar, certain ME regimes…
In addition to the ‘bad character’ group, the subject of the hysterical commentary, there are also other asylum seekers who have had their claims rejected. Over the last 15 years, there has been a variety of reasons why this has happened – the end result being stuck in Villawood with deportation not practicable.
I would like to see the breakdown of who of the 84 released (of 92 in the current cohort) fit into which category. It is understood that 3-400 others are pending the indefinite detention test set by the HC, depending on the published reasons.
So given it is ALP policy, reiterated in this year’s National Conference, to not have indefinite detention – the HC decision is on the face of it supportive of the policy.
Except for the inability to deport, or otherwise restrain, the bad character group.
The World Meteorological Society – Climate heating gases reach record high.
There is so much to unpack in this article. Since I cannot post every bloody thing, you have to read it.
It doesn’t matter which religion you belong to Climate change will impact every person on the earth.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/16/2206148/-The-World-Meteorological-Society-Climate-heating-gases-reach-record-high?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) found that the heating effect of greenhouse gases rose fifty percent between 1990 and 2022. CO2, a long-lasting atmospheric greenhouse gas, accounted for eighty percent of the increase.”
“The fossil fuel industry and their bought and paid-for governments want you to die plan no serious reductions in fossil fuel extraction. On the contrary.
But oil and gas producers have pushed back against the report and say gas in particular will be needed for decades to back up renewable energy.
They also said gas would help underpin the mineral processing and manufacturing required to clean up the economy.
The latest Production Gap Report, released today, suggested the “plans and projections” of governments implied coal production would continue to increase until 2030 and that oil and gas output would rise until “at least 2050″.
Governments around the world, including Australia’s, are planning to expand the fossil fuel industry to about twice what would be consistent with their pledge to try to stop warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, a United Nations report has found.
The report found governments are not only planning to breach production levels consistent with global 1.5 and 2C warming limits, but also their own announced emissions pledges and stated policies.”
“Coal must be phased out seven times faster than is now happening, deforestation must be reduced four times faster, and public transport around the world built out six times faster than at present, if the world is to avoid the worst impacts of climate breakdown, new research has found.
Countries are falling behind on almost every policy required to cut greenhouse gas emissions, despite progress on renewable energy and the uptake of electric vehicles.
This failure makes the prospect of holding global temperatures to 1.5C above preindustrial levels even more remote, according to the State of Climate Action 2023 report. The authors advise that world needs to:
Retire about 240 average-sized coal-fired power plants a year, every year between now and 2030.
Construct the equivalent of three New Yorks’ worth of public transport systems in cities around the world each year this decade.
Halt deforestation, which is happening to an area the size of 15 football pitches every minute, this decade.
Increase the rate of growth of solar and wind power from its current high of 14% a year to 24% a year.
Cut meat consumption from ruminants such as cows and sheep to about two servings a week in the US, Europe and other high-consuming countries by 2030.”
“I’m not sure about you, but I have yet to hear one politician advocate that we need to shut down fossil fuels now, end the agricultural and automotive industries, or rewild the planet. That is what it will take to turn this fuckery around, and even then, we need to suck carbon out of the atmosphere. It will be an apocalypse if we do and an apocalypse if we don’t.
The time to stop colonialism was in the 1600s.
The time to stop carbon-based industrialization was the 1800s.
The time to stop climate change was at least 100 years ago.
The time to research and plan for worst-case scenarios is now. “
A E
Do you know if the HC was concerned about narrow indefinate detention not set by a Ch3 court? Or some broader Habeas Corpus rationale? Or something else?
The Ch3 issue could be solved by more prescriptive and draconian legislation- akin to what was just passed perhaps
and let everyone else who is not of bad character go
Mostly Interested: ‘No, because (mostly) everyone agreed it’s stupid to do a DD election.’
Malcolm Turnbull still has the scars.
Ven @ #702 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 2:07 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpQrglS_9yM
Anyone who thinks Dutton is unelectable doesn’t seem to have noticed that he has actually been elected.
The suckers out there are not confined to his electorate.
This skirmish over the HC decision has exposed once again Labor’s soft underbelly. Dutton smells the panic.
Dutton will be merciless.
Labor have learnt nothing.
”
meher babasays:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 9:53 am
Ven: “I want to ‘So true!’. But my principles say otherwise.”
So what you’re saying is that there’s a limit on the limit to your principles?
”
No that is not what I saying. I stuck to my principles under some difficult situations. However, I have seen all around me, where there is a limit to some people’s principles.
That doesn’t mean I am a noble or something. It is just who I am. Probably I am naive.
“The time to stop colonialism was in the 1600s.”
Seems rather arbitrary. Why are colonies before that OK?
“The time to stop carbon-based industrialization was the 1800s.”
I’m not sure what’s expected here – clairvoyance or Luddites.
“The time to stop climate change was at least 100 years ago.”
This one definitely expects clairvoyance.
“The time to research and plan for worst-case scenarios is now.”
Yeah, of course it is, but when I say that P1 accuses me of being OK about the death of billions.
Ven 2:07pm
Thanks, a depressing read but I can’t fault the logic.
“ Retire about 240 average-sized coal-fired power plants a year, every year between now and 2030.”
One concern I have, as Australia’s recent slow progress on wind power construction is demonstrating, is that, even with political goodwill, I doubt we have the physical capacity to build replacement RE power generation fast enough to meet this timetable.
Michaelia Cash
Socratessays:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 2:36 pm
Ven 2:07pm
Thanks, a depressing read but I can’t fault the logic.
“ Retire about 240 average-sized coal-fired power plants a year, every year between now and 2030.”
One concern I have, as Australia’s recent slow progress on wind power construction is demonstrating, is that, even with political goodwill, I doubt we have the physical capacity to build replacement RE power generation fast enough to meet this timetable.
”
Socrates
It is certainly not the time to wage wars any where in the world.
It is time for all governments in the world to co-operate like they did regarding Ozone layer reduction in 1990s and cut carbon emissions as quickly as possible.
It is not an exaggeration because we have seen this year what happens with weather when temperature is greater than 1.5°C when compared to set level.
It is, indeed, a stupid thing to do.
Ven
Regarding Climate change, the time to act was certainly many decades ago when indisputable facts became available not only to governments but to the general public.
As this is an existential threat to all of us, it is all of us that must take action to make changes to the way we lead our lives.
Waiting for the government to act will not cut it.
Buy a battery, an inverter, and some solar panels.
Do it now if it is at all possible.
If you do, you will question why you didn’t do it yesterday or last year or a decade ago.
You don’t have to go big to cover all of your electrical needs. Start small – do one of your power circuits – leave the rest on grid. At least it’s a start. Your bill will be reduced and you’ll still have cold beer and your TV/Computer and lights when the grid goes down.
Oil prices slumped to their lowest levels since early July on Thursday, putting pressure on the Opec+ group of major oil producers to consider extending and deepening production cuts when they meet in 10 days in Vienna.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell 5.2 per cent on Thursday — one of the biggest daily declines this year — taking prices just under $77 a barrel, below the $80 level at which government budgets start to strain for Saudi Arabia and Russia. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 5.5 per cent to $72.48 a barrel.
The drop in prices builds pressure on Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of Opec+ ahead of their meeting on November 26, when they will consider how to respond to weakening oil prices and concerns that a potential stumble in global growth could hold back demand. “There may be some testing ahead of the Opec+ meeting. In the past they have on regular occasions announced cuts or extended cuts with prices in the $82-85 range,” said Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs. “Our current expectations are that the Saudi cut gets extended fully to the first half of next year, with no expectation of group cuts.”
Oil has been under pressure for much of 2023, but prices started to rise in the summer after Saudi Arabia and Russia led the Opec+ group by making additional cuts to output and exports. Saudi Arabia made its first of several additional voluntary cuts to production in July and has said it will continue until at least the end of the year. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said the oil market should return to surplus in early 2024, even if Saudi Arabia extends its production cuts this year.
No mention here of the huge turnout for School Strike 4 Climate today.
Will Labor listen to them …?
Shoebridge on the latest AUKUS CRS report
https://twitter.com/DavidShoebridge/status/1725374564514099473
https://x.com/theshovel/status/1725272145532452894?s=12, ‘… Albo’s’ made the Shovel again
VCT Et3e @ #682 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 4:08 pm
LOL
VCT Et3e @ #719 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 4:08 pm
BFD. 😐
Arky @ #708 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 2:31 pm
How about planning to reduce the use of fossil fuels. You know … instead of planning to actually increase them?
Just a suggestion.
Rex Douglas @ #716 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 3:42 pm
‘huge’? A couple of hundred?
The leader of which here in Sydney, just had to show how right on they were by wearing a Palestinian keffiyeh. 🙄
Arky:
[“The time to stop climate change was at least 100 years ago.”
This one definitely expects clairvoyance.]
Svante Arrhenius, ‘On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground’, Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 1896:
https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
You’re welcome …
Oliver Sutton @ #724 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 4:31 pm
Carbonic Acid is NOT Carbon Dioxide.
You’re welcome.
Of note: The “greatest threat” Trump poses “is to his own country,” the Economist argues. The “moral authority” of the U.S. would decline “because America will have voted him in while knowing the worst.”
This bears repeating.
27 of the 92 are classified as very bad
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/very-serious-crimes-details-revealed-of-the-92-detainees-affected-by-high-court-ruling-20231117-p5ekvh.html
Mundo says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 2:22 pm
Anyone who thinks Dutton is unelectable doesn’t seem to have noticed that he has actually been elected.
The suckers out there are not confined to his electorate.
This skirmish over the HC decision has exposed once again Labor’s soft underbelly. Dutton smells the panic.
Dutton will be merciless.
Labor have learnt nothing.
………………………….
As an avid follower of your illuminating prognostications, usually on rinse and repeat mode, what does it matter what Dutton does?
Surely Scomo is and will be PM well into the 2030s because Labor never learns.
There’s a lot of blowhards on this blog. That’s for sure.
Yes, yes, pots and kettles and mirrors.
There’s a new YouGov poll with Labor leading 51-49, in from 53-47 just before the referendum. Primary votes: Labor 31 (-2), Coalition 36 (-), Greens 13 (-1), PHON 7 (+1), OTH 13 (+2).
》Carbonic Acid is NOT Carbon Dioxide.
Carbonic acid is created when CO2 dissolves in water
Indefinite Duttontion: https://twitter.com/roweafr/status/1725394684732964882/photo/1
William Bowe @ #694 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 5:10 pm
That Labor PV is horrific.
Military lawyer David McBride pleads guilty to unlawfully sharing secret allegations of Australian war crimes: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-17/military-whistleblower-david-mcbride-trial-leaked-adf-war-crimes/103119808
Inflation in Australia.. the RBA doesn’t have the start of a clue..
I purchased a good Siemens integrated fridge Aug 2022 $ 2700
Price today ………………………………………………………………………..$4000!!!!
Inflation has SFA to do with intrest rates.. its gauging by manufactures & suppliers.
This is for our rexident concern troll:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-17/fact-check-airbus-albo-international-trips-coalition/103113758
If the criminal “refugees” hate having to follow visa conditions so much they can volunteer to go back home.
Apparently the Greens Political Party and their followers here and on twitter think that the country who just rejected the Voice 60/40, and the country who repeatedly backed in John Howard, Morrison, Abbott would be happy if Albo let dangerous criminals waltz around the country unchecked.
“All the released migrants previously had their visas cancelled or had been refused visas because of their criminal records or other evidence of poor character.”
NZYQ is a pedo, child rapist who got away with a slap on the wrist of 5 years in prison. He was so grateful to this country at being ‘saved’ from persecution that he decided 4 months after leaving detention to rape a child. That’s who the Greens Political Party are siding with.
There is a feeling of drift at the moment in my view about the Govt. It might be hard for Albanese to arrest it in the near term given the summer lull but the time will serve as an opportunity for the Govt to reset and bounce back fresh in the medium term. Cost of living is a real issue, the messaging on Israel v Palestine, whilst attempting to be balanced, has just pissed off both sides (whether it is enough to change key seats is questionable given the rhetoric of Dutton). Albanese spending days on end at the tennis this year would not be a great look.
bob says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 5:45 pm
If the criminal “refugees” hate having to follow visa conditions so much they can volunteer to go back home.
_____________________________________
Quite a few don’t actually have a home to go back to – they are stateless. And only some are very serious criminals – some have not actually been convicted of crimes in Australia. So you can can the Duttonesque terrorism on this site at least.
That said, the issue of the conditions placed on those released is something that exercises only the lawyers and the far left. The vastest of the vast bulk of Australians could not care less.
What is more concerning is that Australians are being told they are unsafe. They are not. They are far more at risk of being assaulted, raped, murdered by Australian citizens freed from prison at the end of their sentences who were either born here or obtained Australian citizenship before they became criminals.
wranslide says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 5:46 pm
There is a feeling of drift at the moment in my view about the Govt. It might be hard for Albanese to arrest it in the near term given the summer lull but the time will serve as an opportunity for the Govt to reset and bounce back fresh in the medium term. Cost of living is a real issue, the messaging on Israel v Palestine, whilst attempting to be balanced, has just pissed off both sides (whether it is enough to change key seats is questionable given the rhetoric of Dutton). Albanese spending days on end at the tennis this year would not be a great look.
_______________________________________
I noted a week or so ago that those polled are expressing general feelings, given that there is no election on the horizon for at least 9 months and, most likely, much longer. The minuscule number of people being polled are really being asked to turn their minds to how they feel, rather than actually recording their strongest feelings about the parties.
It would be more useful if the pollsters asked how strongly respondents felt about tossing the government out, regardless of what the opposition offered. Of course, they won’t. I don’t think the baseball bats are out. I doubt they will come out. I think the sheer intellectual impoverishment of the Opposition will be too strong to be seen as a viable alternative to the current government come the election.
And there will be the goodies in the 2024 budget to come……
Steve777 @ #733 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 5:21 pm
And it works as an acid. Not as a Greenhouse Gas. Only the CO2 part does.
Catprog @ #731 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 5:17 pm
Exactly. Now explain to me how Carbonic Acid acts as a Greenhouse Gas?
“ And there will be the goodies in the 2024 budget to come……”
Doubtful, IMO.
Much will depend on whether the Reserve Bank is still onto its ‘sticky inflation’ inspired fetish of destroying people’s lives via futile and counterproductive interest rate hikes. If it is, it will move very quickly to take away the positive effects of any such goodies with another round of rate hikes.
I actually think – and have always thought – that pre-election goodies will be reserved for the very last budget prior to the election (I’m reckoning on a March 2025 election budget), or announced in the campaign itself (at such a time that the Reserve bank cant intervene with another interest rate hike in response to any goodies announced prior to election day).
Given the early rhetoric of the Govt about fiscal responsibility, how much room is there for ‘goodies’ (whatever that means). Albanese has been very deliberate in trying to break the Labor bad economic managers narrative forever. Will he risk that long term strategy at the first real ask? Doubt it. In the words of gentleman Jim it will be measured and targetted.
Interest rates are still below the historic average. Inflation and house prices are hurting but if you can’t spin a good story about low unemployment, growth and low interest rates then wtf.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 6:14 pm
“ And there will be the goodies in the 2024 budget to come……”
Doubtful, IMO.
________________________________________
I think the 2024 budget will be the last budget before the election. I’m sure (only because it is utterly logical) that s3 tax cuts will be reconfigured to benefit lower income earners at the expense of higher income earners. Time will tell, but I really don’t think polls at this point in time are particularly useful unless they show strong anti-government feeling, which these don’t. The polls in 2012 and 2021 did and we saw the outcomes.
If S3 was going to be reconfigured then the groundwork would have been needed all year. Not going to happen.
“In the words of gentleman Jim it will be measured and targetted.”
__________________________________________
Indeed. I was not suggesting a cash splash – but I think that for middle and lower income earners there will be real relief.
The Lincoln Project has a great wrap of the US Farragio this week.
The footage from the 1939 American Nazi rally in Madison Square Garden is definatelya worth a watch at about 39.00 minutes…
https://www.youtube.com/live/FyFzR1okHTs?si=3RgOXkheQTLPT2Io
TPOF @ Friday, November 17, 2023 at 6:42 pm:
“…Time will tell, but I really don’t think polls at this point in time are particularly useful unless they show strong anti-government feeling, which these don’t. The polls in 2012 and 2021 did and we saw the outcomes.”
===================
Even then, look at 1992, 1998 and 2001. Governments have been in bigger holes than this one (not that this is even a hole yet), and fought back to win the next election (or several).