The fortnightly Essential Research results find no change for the major parties on the primary vote, with results inclusive of a 5% undecided component putting the Coalition at 34% and Labor at 32%. The Greens are up two to 12%, recovering half of a four-point drop in the previous poll, while One Nation are steady on 7%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is 49% to 47%, the remainder being undecided, compared with 48% to 46% last time. I noted a fortnight ago that gender breakdowns from the previous poll presented the opposite from the usual pattern, which has distinctly not been repeated this time.
The survey includes bi-monthly favourability ratings, as distinct from approval ratings, in which respondents rate the leaders’ performance on a scale of zero to ten. Anthony Albanese’s reading is negative for the first time, with a four point drop in ratings designated positive (seven to ten) to 33% and a six-point increase in negative (one to three) to 35%. Peter Dutton gets his best results since November, his positive rating is up five to 32% and negative steady on 35%.
The supplementary questions largely related to international affairs, including a question as to whether Australia should provide “active assistance” to Israel or Palestine, the nature of such assistance presumably being hinted at by the either/or (or neither) response options. Seventeen per cent favoured such assistance going to Israel compared with 21% who favoured it going “to Palestine”, an ambiguous proposition under the circumstances. Thirty-five per cent rated the Israeli response proportionate, down seven from four weeks ago, compared with 25% for disproportionate, up seven. Thirty-one per cent rated themselves satisfied with the Australian government’s response, down six, with dissatisfied up one to 20%.
The Albanese government scores a 25% positive rating on its handling of international relations, with 45% for average and 30% for negative. Forty-four per cent rate Australia’s relationship with China as better since Labor came to power, compared with 11% for worse (allowance should perhaps be made here for those who consider a good relationship a bad thing). Twenty-seven per cent said active support should go to the United States in its tensions with China, compared with 6% for the opposite proposition and 67% for “stay as neutral as possible”. Thirty-nine per cent felt the AUKUS partnership would make Australia more secure, down one from March, compared with 18% for less secure (down three) and 42% for no difference (up three). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150.
Further poll news:
• The Age/Herald provided further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on aid to the principals in the Middle East conflict, identified as Hamas and Israel in the question, with response options specifying Israel, Gaza or both equally. The results were 21%, 13% and 47% for medical and food aid, 14%, 9% and 29% for accepting refugees, and 21%, 4% and an enigmatic 8% for providing military equipment, with a respective 30%, 48% and 66% favouring providing no such aid at all.
• The weekly Roy Morgan result is the second poll published this term that fails to have Labor ahead on two-party preferred, the first being its result of three weeks ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor, down one-and-a-half, 36.5% for the Coalition, up one-and-a-half, and 13% for the Greens, down half. The 50-50 two-party result is based on respondent-allocated preferences, which are again flowing to Labor more weakly than they did at the election. Applying the election preference flows, I make it 51-49 in favour of Labor. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1397.
• Roy Morgan also has an SMS poll with a forced response question on whether Israel should withdraw immediately from Gaza, finding 51% for yes and 49% for no. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1650.
It’s not as if giving in to Coalition demands is going to shut them up. They’ll just get all the louder.
If any other Bludger derives as much enjoyment as I do from tacky legal cases involving allegations of attempted murder and sexual infidelity, this is the best one to appear for some time IMO. It’s got just about everything.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12759451/Lisa-Lines-Zacharia-Josef-Bruckner-Jonathon-Hawtin-Adelaide-Palau-arrests.html
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 11:51 am
It’s too kind to suggest they are merely a rogues gallery, they are far worse.
@cronus:
“ It’s too kind to suggest they are merely a rogues gallery, they are far worse.”
______
Here’s a thought:
The real reason – or perhaps a very significant contributing factor – in the failure of the LNP to attract more women to the party and hence to becoming MPs isn’t actually the men, but rather it is the caliber of women within the party that is a turn off for other – dare I suggest more normal and sane women. … like the fairly long list of teal and teal like women who are now successful independent MPs (and most of whom are ideologically ‘petite tories’ at heart)?
Andy finally arrives at the position I was 2 days ago re the emergency legislation and how it plays for Labor.
No doubt he’ll fire up with some crudity.
I thought Dutton was gone after Aston, now I am not so sure.
Albo and Jodie could be playing Last Christmas this year at Kirribilli before a mid year leadership change to Chalmers.
meher baba @11.53
AE: “Labor should not have buckled on the mandatory requirements for ankle bracelets and curfews. … sounds a lot like ‘legislative’ punishment … something that Gaegler, CJ isn’t likely to look upon favourably at the inevitable HC challenge. …”
It might be poor from an administrative standpoint, but it would be strategically helpful to Labor for the High Court to knock out the Coalition’s amendment.
Question from non legal bod: Is it likely that the written judgements from the HC, when published, could include comments that would indicate such amendments were illegal?
Edit: general question to PBs legal eagles, not directed at MB specifically.
Just focusing on the headline of this article for a moment:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-and-xi-s-talks-may-not-move-the-needle-on-us-china-tensions-20231116-p5ekn7.html
IMO the best way for america to develop trust in its relationship with China is to partner with the Middle Kingdom on as many projects of mutual interest as possible. Here’s a radical thought that was actually doing the rounds of serious geopolitical thought from 10-15 years ago: america should volunteer – nay ‘insist’ on partnering with China on a ‘dollar for dollar’ basis in the belt and road initiative.
Such a move would do more to lift humanity than any other I can think of. The spin off benefits for the world’s economy, for peace and security would be absolutely immense. It would also position america for a very soft landing as the world moves from the brief unipolar period of the post Cold War to the multipolar world of the mid 21st century.
Such a partnership would also enhance Xi’s stature, but could also be used as a bargaining chip regarding guarantees as to Taiwan’s continuing autonomy under the umbrella of the ‘one China’ policy that has kept the peace for the last 70 years. …
I’m dreaming, I know … but …
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 12:07 pm
@cronus:
“ It’s too kind to suggest they are merely a rogues gallery, they are far worse.”
______
Here’s a thought:
The real reason – or perhaps a very significant contributing factor – in the failure of the LNP to attract more women to the party and hence to becoming MPs isn’t actually the men, but rather it is the caliber of women within the party that is a turn off for other – dare I suggest more normal and sane women. … like the fairly long list of teal and teal like women who are now successful independent MPs (and most of whom are ideologically ‘petite tories’ at heart)?
————————
I truly can’t understand why a ‘decent’ (my subjective opinion) person, far-less a female in such a mysoginistic party would enter politics with a Coalition party these days. Becoming a Teal is eminently more understandable.
“ Question from non legal bod: Is it likely that the written judgements from the HC, when published, could include comments that would indicate such amendments were illegal?‘
____
It depends. The judgment can be divided into two parts: ‘the ratio’ – ie. what was the key legal point that decided the case, and ‘orbiter’ – comments that indicate a line of reasoning, leading to both the ratio of the case, but potentially giving guidance to legal principles extending out beyond the mere ratio. So far we know from its judgment and orders the current HC thinks that indefinite detention contravenes the constitution because it amounts to punishment – something which is reserved to the 3rd arm of government – the judiciary.
What we don’t know for sure are the steps in logic that the HC relied upon in arriving at that conclusion. Those will be set out in the reasons for judgment – yet to be published. From those, folk far more learned in the law than me (in fact I barely claim to be a lawyer these days – I am a mere jury whisperer and courtroom performance artist) can make a very educated guess of the parameters of such a line of reasoning. So, its over to Shellbell, SC etc etc for further comments.
Andrew Earlwood
I can’t dispute the grim nature of your list of Liberal female MPs. I think your hypothesis on their impact on female vote share is valid too. Look at how Warringah reacted to Catherine Deves last election. To me the reaction of Brittany Higgins’ two female Minister bosses to her allegations was most damning of all.
On China I agree with the cooperation. On Belt and Road, sorry I just can’t see the USA going for it. Their days of funding Marshall plans is long gone. Aside from Biden’s recent success with the Inflation Reduction Act, the USA can’t usually agree to fund their own infrastructure, never mind somebody elses.
I think in the long term this makes it very difficult for USA and its allies to appeal to nations in the “Global South” to become allies. USA trading relationships with such countries are often quite exploitative.
It’s been a little while coming but the media seems to have fallen head over heels for Dutters.
It all gets pretty spooky from now.
Taylormade @ #560 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 8:35 am
Joyce.
Lars Von Trier
Albo and Jodie could be playing Last Christmas this year at Kirribilli before a mid year leadership change to Chalmers.
And I could be the King of Siam. About as likely.
Lars Von Trier @ #625 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 12:10 pm
If Albo refuses to address S3 there needs to be a leadership change early next year.
From that SMH article I reference above:
“ But on the other, tensions remain, most notably when it comes to Taiwan. According to Chinese state-run media, Xi demanded that the US “stop arming Taiwan” and declared that the self-governing island’s “reunification” with China, which is something most Taiwanese oppose, was “unstoppable.””
______
This comment goes to the heart of a ChiComm contradiction under Xi.
I have long been opposed to ‘Freedumbs of Navigation’ exercise – and similar grandstanding as being deliberately and counterproductively inflammatory and antagonistic. I stand by that assessment.
However, although Xi & Co would publicly fulminate to the max, I do not think that ‘rearmament’ of Taiwan falls into the same category of shirt-fuckery.
Xi declaring that reunification is ‘unstoppable’ when it is obvious that either a majority or a very large minority of Taiwanese oppose reunification and an overwhelming majority favour a continuation of the status quo for the foreseeable future amounts to a significant change in chi-comm doctrine and deserving of a response.
Until that declaration the US has actively blocked Taiwan in acquiring a modern submarine fleet, more modern air-defence systems, F35s and the like because such rearmament was perceived to be unnecessarily antagonistic of China.
However, that was no longer the case as soon as the declaration was made. It is not ‘in your face, China!’ for America to have said ‘we support one china and the status quo./ Under that existing doctrine the peoples of Taiwan have a right to individual independence and self determination: they are entitled to defend themselves against all who would seek to take that away from them. Hence the US agrees to permit Taiwan to acquire such self defence systems as are necessary to defend those liberties’. …
I find it astonishing, nay bewildering, to find that the Canberra establishment is effectively volunteering Australia for the frontline defence of Taiwan – and warping our own strategic interests, defence policy and military procurement – when Taiwan itself has no plans to acquire the military kit it needs to defend itself. … yet another reason for us to be a hard ‘no’ to America’s overtures regarding the defence of Taiwan. …
Sophie Mirabella has to be amongst the nastiest female Liberal MPs historically.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 8:38 am
Taylormade: Barnaby Joyce!
_____________________
I doubt even Barnaby would have allowed himself to be pushed around like that.
Marles is a wimp.
Sophie Mirabella has to be amongst the nastiest female Liberal MPs historically.
_____
In retrospect, I don’t think the Puff Adder would hold a candle to some of those women on the list.
A_E @ 12.24:
Thank you.
JFC !
Historically nasty LNP women as an seperate awards category. Mirabella, obviously. Bronwyn Bishop? Another candidate. I’m sure there are many others. Thoughts?
@meher: ““The ABC attempted to reach the QUT Liberal National Club and Young LNP for comment.”
Why these two groups in particular? Why not Universities Australia, or the Queensland or Federal Government. WTF?”
Yeah it’s really weird. Were they involved in lobbying for or against the measure maybe?
I think it’s pretty poor optics/audio to be explicitly removing merit from the hiring process – surely there’s a far better way to word what you’re doing. Everyone who gets hired there is now going to face the accusation they’re a token something or other who has no merit.
“Second most senior officer in the British armed forces knew, in 2011, of ‘unofficial policy’ among SAS squadrons to kill any Afghan male over age of 15 on raids, regardless of threathttps://t.co/9BtjIIsjGc— Ben Mckelvey (@benmckelvey) November 16, 2023”
______
This is the necessary consequence of ‘kill-capture’ missions. … by their very nature.
Which is why ‘kill-capture’ needs to be used very sparingly, and why units like the SAS are actually highly unsuited to the role.
Interestingly, none of the war-crimes investigated by the Australian Inquiry into war crimes were ‘kill-capture’ missions. There was a specific carve out for ‘heat of battle’ incidents. … which puts things into perspective, doesn’t it?
@Andrew E: The High Court has ruled against INDEFINITE immigration detention for aliens awaiting deportation but not against all immigration detention, honestly can’t imagine a serious basis for arcing up about ankle bracelets and reporting conditions and this coming from someone who agreed with the HCA overturning Al Kateb. That would be a boggler of a decision.
Andrew: I take that your reference to ‘orbiter’ is a typo.
@Mavis: Yeah. he meant “obiter”, short for obiter dicta. It’s judge commentary that doesn’t form the actual basis for decision, and while persuasive is not binding.
gritted my teeth as to whether or not to post this, which usually means probably not but, should posters be making lists of female MPs and ranking them on ‘nastiness’. Optics aren’t great.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 12:46 pm
Historically nasty LNP women as an seperate awards category. Mirabella, obviously. Bronwyn Bishop? Another candidate. I’m sure there are many others. Thoughts?
_____________________________________
Amanda Vanstone…
Fun as SHY’s blasting of the Optus CEO is, the bit about “why didn’t Optus let its customers roam onto other networks” is fairly tech ignorant. Telstra have already commented that there’s just no capacity to take on Optus’ entire customer base onto Telstra and Vodafone’s networks at once – all you’d achieve is crash every network under the strain. It’s unreasonable to expect these businesses to each invest in enough capacity to let the whole of Australia on their networks at once in the event one of the others has a temporary outage.
@Mostly Interested: I agree, seems pretty low rent to me. Coalition attracts a lot of nasty people male and female, singling out the women is ugh.
Warren Buffett has sold out of GM after decades holding the stock.
This is big news for the future of legacy car makers.
https://www.investopedia.com/warren-buffett-s-berkshire-sold-gm-shares-trimmed-amazon-but-bought-stake-in-an-mlb-team-owner-8402037#:~:text=Warren%20Buffett%27s%20Berkshire%20Hathaway%20exited,acquisition%20of%20the%20game%20developer.
The ferocity of China’s public face waxes and wanes.
Just a few short years ago Chinese state representatives behaved like utter thugs (have we forgotten the Wolf Warrior period of Chinese international diplomacy ALREADY?) at various international venues. China switches the bluster and the charm on-and-off with India. One month they are infiltrating troops through whatever line they are temporarily accepting. The next month they are extolling the virtues the Chinese/Indian military face-to-face meetings. For the nonce, it is busy saying and doing some very, very nasty things to the Philippines at the moment. Bait and switch, switch and bait. If you have internal lines of comms and imperialistic intentions, this makes perfect sense.
In general I agree with A-E’s view that it is in everyone’s interests for China and the US to be co-operating on things like threatening China’s neighbours*, ramming supply ships, trying to gut the Taiwanese economy and whacking Australia with a $20 billion trade punishment because Xi did not want to hear what Morrison was saying.
But then there are some things about the Belt and Road initiative that bear some serious thought. Its principle objective is to provide China with internal lines of communications and ways and means of bypassing some huge strategic bottlenecks.
Those concerned about CO2 emissions will have noticed the massive Belt and Road ‘improvements’ that are facilitating a massive increase of fossil fuel imports, naturally including coal, from places such as Mongolia and Russia.
Then again, it is worth actually listening to what the host countries are really saying about the Belt and Road projects, the behaviour of the chinese nationals who move and build the stuff, and related debt funding.
Finally, it might be worth having a look at such massive belt and road projects as are actually stopped in mid project. Would the US really be interested in picking up the tab for projects for which the commercial ROI is busted?
The Chinese are in a sweat ATM because the cheating gains they made out of the public/private mercantilist has finally roused its trading ‘partners’. China has de facto most of the rules that hold the WTO together. Big time. Routinely.
Still, as A-E points out, talk talk is better than actual fight fight, bearing in mind that Japan was doing talk talk before it stopped with all the talking nonsense, and that China is engaged in the biggest fleet build in world peace time history. Ever.
*The US could co-operate by printing the latest official chinese maps of China which just stretched their territorial boundaries well into both India and Russia.
Andrew Earlwood
I would also agree that Chinese forced reunification with Taiwan, along with US containment of China, are the two great policy mistakes of this century so far. Without them, there is no reason for a China USA conflict to occur.
Speaking of matters closer to home, I played a modern (amateur) wargame recently of how could Australia eject a Chinese military force including aircraft and ships from a hypothetical military base in the Solomon Islands. The game assumed no US involvement, with New Guinea and France (New Caledonia) stayed neutral. The RAN lost the game and was unable to complete the task. The RAN LPH got sunk.
Chinese aircraft in the Solomons were too difficult to dislodge. The RAN player lacked the ability to defend the LPH as the RAN’s main “power projection” asset. We don’t have enough ships with good AA once the LPH got beyond the range of Townsville based F35s. The Chinese player simply waited.
The game assumed the RAN had a Virginia (invaluable), and a plausible 2030s mix of Hobart, Hunter, Anzac and a Tasman for good measure. Chinese SSKs had no effect across the broad Coral Sea, P8s bottling them up, making the Hunter redundant. The RAN player would have been better off with more Hobarts.
Ironically what would have made the game far easier for the RAN (as in WWII) was if friendly aircraft could have been based in Vanuatu and/or New Caledonia(!) not just Townsville. And yes, flying F35Bs off the LPD would have helped, but not enough without an additional LST.
This was only a game based on OSINT data. The moral of the story is that we are still building the wrong ships and really should be pals with France, irrespective of SSNs. Better diplomacy with the Solomons wouldn’t hurt either.
PS If we focused more on defending our own back yard and less on the Taiwan Strait, we would see our whole security challenge quite differently.
I suggest that the discussion about Liberal and National women may be showing some sort of lack of appreciation of the spread of values among your actual Liberal and National women. The notion that Liberal and National female MPs are aberrant and that these aberrants are a symptom of misogyny and are why women are turned off the Nationals and the Liberals could probably do with some nuace.
Lars
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 12:10 pm
Andy finally arrives at the position I was 2 days ago re the emergency legislation and how it plays for Labor.
No doubt he’ll fire up with some crudity.
I thought Dutton was gone after Aston, now I am not so sure.
Albo and Jodie could be playing Last Christmas this year at Kirribilli before a mid year leadership change to Chalmers.
Without substantiation or rationale.
A leadership challenge is difficult for Labor.
I’ll raise you a “Dutton will be gone before Albanese”.
Dutton won’t survive monies allocated to and some spent on the refugee confinement.
Amanda Vanstone was pretty bad, even though she was a moderate.
A separate award for historically nastiest Liberal female MP’s is probably not merited though because the ones in existence now compromise most of the nastiest in the history of the Liberal-National Coalition (Mirabella aside). The same, incidentally, applies when it comes to men.
What about Anne Ruston when it comes to these prizes, can she compete?
So there are nasty girls but not mean girls?
Themunz says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 1:06 pm
Warren Buffett has sold out of GM after decades holding the stock.
This is big news for the future of legacy car makers.
https://www.investopedia.com/warren-buffett-s-berkshire-sold-gm-shares-trimmed-amazon-but-bought-stake-in-an-mlb-team-owner-8402037#:~:text=Warren%20Buffett%27s%20Berkshire%20Hathaway%20exited,acquisition%20of%20the%20game%20developer.
————-
The more I read and hear from Mary Barra the more understandable Buffet’s decision appears. She is incapable of taking GM into the EV revolution and needs to be replaced imho.
I’ll raise you a “Dutton will be gone before Albanese”.
Dutton won’t survive monies allocated to and some spent on the refugee confinement.
Really? When is that going to be revealed? In a dream?
And will the electorate care? Most of them want refugees to be indefinitely detained or shot.
So the media is starting its election campaign for Dutton just as they did for Abbott, making a useless twat electable. Lets see if the punters fall for it again.
Socrates
“ PS If we focused more on defending our own back yard and less on the Taiwan Strait, we would see our whole security challenge quite differently.”
———-
Agreed, and which is after all (or should be) the primary purpose of the ADF. The ADF is not and should not be an expeditionary force.
Dead right.
The Lars Team ™ has a thing about mid 2024. So far, the Team’s breathless predictions for that time are:
1. An early election called by Albo to cash in on his popularity.
2. Albo being rolled by a Jim Chalmer’s challenge.
Clare O’Neil and Marles looked dead set panic stricken in trying to deal with Dutton’s politicking.
A fine example of superior American culture & intellect..
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/stand-butt-fistfight-nearly-breaks-senate-hearing-bernie-sanders-steps-rcna125140
Worth 5 minutes of your life to watch.
Anybody talking about Albo double dissolution triggers anymore?
Lars Von Trier @ #696 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 1:44 pm
No, because (mostly) everyone agreed it’s stupid to do a DD election.
Rex Douglas @ #694 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 1:35 pm
Nice people often struggle communicating with not nice people.
Seselja has made a YouTube video promoting himself to NSW Liberal party members in the pre-selection contest to replace senator Marise Payne. The video includes endorsements from Abbott, Canavan, Taylor and Hastie but not Morrison or Dutton.
The video is embedded in this article that lists Seselja’s “policies” that align remarkably with those of the hard-right in Australia and the US.
https://the-riotact.com/seselja-to-forsake-the-act-for-senate-run-from-border-base/722881
Anybody talking about Albo double dissolution triggers anymore?
__________________________________
No.
In the same way nobody is talking about us going to war against the Solomon Islands. Or Australia developing nuclear weapons to nuke North Korea.
“ @Andrew E: The High Court has ruled against INDEFINITE immigration detention for aliens awaiting deportation but not against all immigration detention, honestly can’t imagine a serious basis for arcing up about ankle bracelets and reporting conditions and this coming from someone who agreed with the HCA overturning Al Kateb. That would be a boggler of a decision.”
______
I think you miss my point. No doubt, as a mere legal dilettante, the fault is mine. I don’t think the HC would have a problem with detention, or supervised release with conditions such as ankle bracelets, curfews, reporting conditions per se.
The issue – as I see it – is whether by making these conditions mandatory in all cases without exception they can be characterised as punishment, and therefore unconstitutional.
Some folk who have been languishing in indefinite detention have failed Dutton’s assessment of ‘the character test’ for matters far less grave than ‘murder or child rape’, and in the ordinary course of the criminal law the conditions imposed by parole would be far less onerous, and after the expiry of the parole period there would be no conditions imposed at all.
Of course, these folk remain non citizens, and some of them are in effect stateless. A sovereign has a right to monitor (and indeed supervise non citizens within its realm as a matter of public safety) … BUT if such monitoring amounts to punishment, then there is a risk of these measures running foul of the HC’s present interpretation of the constitutional limits of legislative and executive power.
Ps. Obiter vs Orbiter – a typo caused by the auto check function, which I did not pick up, either when I proof read my draft, or when I did my usual post post editing. Mia culpa.