The fortnightly Essential Research results find no change for the major parties on the primary vote, with results inclusive of a 5% undecided component putting the Coalition at 34% and Labor at 32%. The Greens are up two to 12%, recovering half of a four-point drop in the previous poll, while One Nation are steady on 7%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is 49% to 47%, the remainder being undecided, compared with 48% to 46% last time. I noted a fortnight ago that gender breakdowns from the previous poll presented the opposite from the usual pattern, which has distinctly not been repeated this time.
The survey includes bi-monthly favourability ratings, as distinct from approval ratings, in which respondents rate the leaders’ performance on a scale of zero to ten. Anthony Albanese’s reading is negative for the first time, with a four point drop in ratings designated positive (seven to ten) to 33% and a six-point increase in negative (one to three) to 35%. Peter Dutton gets his best results since November, his positive rating is up five to 32% and negative steady on 35%.
The supplementary questions largely related to international affairs, including a question as to whether Australia should provide “active assistance” to Israel or Palestine, the nature of such assistance presumably being hinted at by the either/or (or neither) response options. Seventeen per cent favoured such assistance going to Israel compared with 21% who favoured it going “to Palestine”, an ambiguous proposition under the circumstances. Thirty-five per cent rated the Israeli response proportionate, down seven from four weeks ago, compared with 25% for disproportionate, up seven. Thirty-one per cent rated themselves satisfied with the Australian government’s response, down six, with dissatisfied up one to 20%.
The Albanese government scores a 25% positive rating on its handling of international relations, with 45% for average and 30% for negative. Forty-four per cent rate Australia’s relationship with China as better since Labor came to power, compared with 11% for worse (allowance should perhaps be made here for those who consider a good relationship a bad thing). Twenty-seven per cent said active support should go to the United States in its tensions with China, compared with 6% for the opposite proposition and 67% for “stay as neutral as possible”. Thirty-nine per cent felt the AUKUS partnership would make Australia more secure, down one from March, compared with 18% for less secure (down three) and 42% for no difference (up three). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150.
Further poll news:
• The Age/Herald provided further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on aid to the principals in the Middle East conflict, identified as Hamas and Israel in the question, with response options specifying Israel, Gaza or both equally. The results were 21%, 13% and 47% for medical and food aid, 14%, 9% and 29% for accepting refugees, and 21%, 4% and an enigmatic 8% for providing military equipment, with a respective 30%, 48% and 66% favouring providing no such aid at all.
• The weekly Roy Morgan result is the second poll published this term that fails to have Labor ahead on two-party preferred, the first being its result of three weeks ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor, down one-and-a-half, 36.5% for the Coalition, up one-and-a-half, and 13% for the Greens, down half. The 50-50 two-party result is based on respondent-allocated preferences, which are again flowing to Labor more weakly than they did at the election. Applying the election preference flows, I make it 51-49 in favour of Labor. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1397.
• Roy Morgan also has an SMS poll with a forced response question on whether Israel should withdraw immediately from Gaza, finding 51% for yes and 49% for no. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1650.
If S3 was going to be reconfigured then the groundwork would have been needed all year. Not going to happen.
________________________________________
On the contrary, any serious groundwork would have been an absolute free kick for Dutton. The trick is to announce it just before the changes so people can see they are better off while Dutton is screeching about broken promises.
》Exactly. Now explain to me how Carbonic Acid acts as a Greenhouse Gas?
More carbon dioxide in the air leads to more carbonic acid in the ocean.
Things can be bad for more then one reason, it does not have to be just about the climate.
“So you can can the Duttonesque terrorism on this site at least.”
Still failed a character test. They’re here at our pleasure as non-citizens who claim to be fleeing danger but chose to bypass multiple countries to make risky ocean voyages (or long plane journeys) to come to our country and behave in manner that makes them a risk.
They can behave or go back to prison or fly home.
“being told they are unsafe. They are not”
Tell the child NZYQ raped 4 months after he left detention that he was not unsafe.
“On the contrary, any serious groundwork would have been an absolute free kick for Dutton. The trick is to announce it just before the changes so people can see they are better off while Dutton is screeching about broken promises.”
So the Govt won an election promising me a tax cut, which with payg turns into a cash pay rise in my pay packet in July.
Let’s say for me it is $1000 extra per month.
Your plan is for them to tell me in May that they are taking back the $1000 they promised me in July and every month there after to the election.
With that kind of thinking I can only conclude you are part of the Labor brains trust that lost elections to Abbott and Morrison and can’t really claim the credit for any win since Keating lost (two of the three victories being credited to the Govt losing them, and one victory credited to the conservative mps who metaphorically dived on a grenade for the sake of the nation).
“Tell the child NZYQ raped 4 months after he left detention that he was not unsafe.”
_____________________________________________
I don’t know the details of this case. However, the issues go to sentencing and parole. Australians cannot be detained beyond what the courts determine; the fact that an individual who is not Australian has committed a crime is no different from an Australian who has committed the same crime. Pretending otherwise (especially when the vast preponderance of serious crime is committed in Australia by Australians) is just political posturing for incredibly cheap political points at the expense of genuine public security.
Albo just has to have a suite of popular policies up to the next election as he knows dopey Dutton will probably just reject or oppose them. If the punters dont want them they can vote for Spud and get jackshit.
WWP
So the Govt won an election promising me a tax cut, which with payg turns into a cash pay rise in my pay packet in July.
Let’s say for me it is $1000 extra per month.
Your plan is for them to tell me in May that they are taking back the $1000 they promised me in July and every month there after to the election.
____________________________________________
How many of your colleagues vote Labor and will vote Liberal because they don’t get as much as they were banking on?
”Will voters reward an effort to govern well, or will they be keener on following Peter Dutton into culture wars?”
The former grossly Minister in a grossly incompetent Government, now opposition leader, is keen to find out.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/11/17/incompetence-culture-wars-conservatism-dominate-politics/
What does it say about this country if a PM is elected on culture wars? Pathetic I would say.
At the time Arrhenius was writing, the term “carbonic acid” was used for what we would now refer to as carbon dioxide (as well as its current use) – see, for example, https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Popular_Science_Monthly/Volume_59/July_1901/Climate_and_Carbonic_Acid.
Well with the referendum last month, as well as all federal elections from 2001 to 2019 with the exception of 2007, as a collective electorate we haven’t really proven that hypothesis wrong.
So Dutton is going to run on a mandate of division.? Wont win him any of those Teal seats back, thats for sure.
steve davis says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 7:42 pm
So Dutton is going to run on a mandate of division.? Wont win him any of those Teal seats back, thats for sure.
________________________________________
Dutton is banking on winning enough seats from Labor to force the Teals to back him. He expects they will have no choice after the what happened to Windsor and Oakeshott. I doubt it will come to that, but he misunderstands that the teals are not not professional politicians. I don’t think any had aspirations to political office and would not be worried about losing their seats.
Of course, if they did agree to support a Dutton government (in the unlikely event that he was in the running to form one) he might find he would be herding cats. In fact, in such circumstances Labor would be very well off letting the Liberals govern in a minority as they would completely fuck up everything.
The SBS news coverage had film of the different school climate protests today. They varied in size with some only a few hundred. However SBS reported that collectively they totaled in the thousands. The Melbourne one certainly had a crowd of one or more thousands.
Given this is schoolies week in SA, I don’t think these numbers should be dismissed as trivial.
Dutton is looking to assemble a Coalition of the Deplorable…
David Crowe is right, Christmas can’t come soon enough for Albanese and Labor. If that primary vote enters the 20s’…
”On the contrary, any serious groundwork [to dump S3] would have been an absolute free kick for Dutton. The trick is to announce it just before the changes so people can see they are better off while Dutton is screeching about broken promises.”
The trouble with that strategy is that leaks are inevitable.
I’m wondering how an alternative approach would be in regards to repealing the S3 tax reforms if they were included as a Labor 2025 election policy to reduce inflation?
Something that gets across “Yes, we said at the 2022 election that we wouldn’t repeal it, and so far we have kept our word on that. But you’ve all seen how we need to tackle inflation, so if you vote for us again, one of our policies will be to possibly repeal it if necessary.”
Or maybe it probably won’t matter, maybe the 2025 election is when the world is on fire again with fascism and the Liberals win with a policy of “We’ll put all asylum seekers out to sea on boats and then set those boats on fire” or whatever.
The question is, “Can Jim Chalmers continue the string of Budget surpluses even with the S3 tax cuts?”
There will be egg on many a face if he can…
And in a back to reality moment for the pants wetters- the results of the Griener review into the NSW Liberal failure at the recent election are in. And it ain’t pretty…
But policy formation and a failure to pitch to a wider group of voters also shaped the outcome, finding the party “offered no particular solutions” to women, renters, those from different religious and ethnic backgrounds, as well as younger voters who were particularly overlooked.
“We paid insufficient attention to the impact of generational change and continued to assume that younger cohorts in time would become more interested in our values,” it read.
The review is likely to make waves in the party nationally as federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and campaigners contemplate how to retain existing Liberal seats held by moderates, while also appealing to blue-collar voters in outer suburban seats, whose power was highlighted by October’s Voice referendum outcome.
The review will form a blueprint for NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman as he attempts to find a narrative for a state party decimated by the defeat, the pre-election retirement of 13 MPs and ministers, and the first experience of opposition after 12 years in power.
In a worrying sign to Mr Speakman, it outlined a deeply divided administrative wing riven by ill-discipline, infighting, leaking and distrust. The most scathing criticism was reserved for the party’s 29-member executive or top decision-making panel, which was blasted for acting out of factional self-interest and making errors that cost seats.
“We preselected candidates way too late, largely because the executive put factional power games ahead of their prime responsibility: to run a winning campaign,” the review said.
https://www.afr.com/politics/complacency-leaking-infighting-libs-blasted-in-election-probe-20231117-p5ektv With no paywall if you google search for some key words
Pop quiz on a Friday night
How many people can name this person? (No reverse googling allowed)
Rex Douglas:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 4:05 pm
[‘BREAKING: Whistleblower David McBride has just pleaded guilty after both his public interest defence and much of the critical evidence for his defence have been successfully objected to by the Commonwealth government. It’s hard to believe.— David Shoebridge (@DavidShoebridge) November 17, 2023.’]
I’ve maintained for some time now that Dreyfus should’ve exercised his statutory power to nolle the indictment presented against McBride. That said, guilty pleas to 24 charges (originally he faced 66…), albeit late ones, will afford him a sentencing benefit for facilitating the administration of justice – principally, negating the need to hold an expensive, long and complex trial, and to a lesser extent his pleas evidence remorse, giving rise, I’d think, to a reasonably good sentencing outcome.
The downside is that whistleblowers, even pursuant to a PID, will consider their options. I’d add that counterintuitively given the nature of such a defence, general & personal deterrence are at the heart of the matter, governments of any persuasion not liking their dirty linen aired in public.
Thanks Mavis
I was just about to ask for any Bludger legal opinions on the outcome. Or more accurately, opinions from our legal Bludgers.
UK Voting Intention: Via @techneUK , 15-16 Nov. Changes w/ 8-9 Nov.
LAB: 46% (=)
CON: 22% (-3)
LDM: 11% (+1)
RFM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Election cant come soon enough in the UK for the punters to get rid of the Tories.
“ Close to half (44%) of all Australian commuter trips are by car – and under 10km. Of Perth’s 4.2 million daily car trips, 2.8 are for distances of less than 2km. This is common in wealthier countries. In the United States, a staggering 60% of all car trips cover less than 10km.”
So large cars and large batteries for long road trips not quite as necessary as some suggest perhaps.
https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-280-million-electric-bikes-and-mopeds-are-cutting-demand-for-oil-far-more-than-electric-cars-213870
Cronus
Commuters in Perth used to drive less than 500 metres to a Park and Ride train station when I lived there so no surprise there.
Cronus:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 8:58 pm
[‘Thanks Mavis
I was just about to ask for any Bludger legal opinions on the outcome. Or more accurately, opinions from our legal Bludgers.’]
Cronus, I think there’s more than meets to eye with this one, but we’ll probably never know the full extent of it. He’s been bailed pending a sentencing hearing, listed for early next year.
TPOF
Dutton and his advisors still think the “Teal” seats are safe Liberal seats – Liberal Heartland no less. Many of the are actually very marginal on 2PP vs Labor now and i bet some will be nominally Labor seats after the election. One of them may very well be won by Labor, depending on what seats actually exist after the redistribution.
Why would the Teals support Dutton then?? The situation is a zillion mile away from Windsor and Oakshott in 2010.
sprocket_ @ #774 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 8:45 pm
Mark Speakman, former AG in the Perrottet NSW Liberal government, now Opposition Leader, and likely placeholder until someone more charismatic comes along. 😐
Sprocket, is that Mark Speakman, NSW LOTO?
steve davis says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 9:15 pm
Cronus
Commuters in Perth used to drive less than 500 metres to a Park and Ride train station when I lived there so no surprise there.
——————-
Steve I suspect this may be the case in most large cities actually.
Erratum: It was Boyle who was originally facing 66 charges, not McBride, who eventually had his charges reduced from 5 to 3.
In Sydney if you’re only 500 metres from your destination you’re probably already closer to it than you could park…
Despite my concerns I’m sure everything about AUKUS will turn out so great. There is no chance the USA will reneg on supplying the RAN the Virginias they have promised. Likewise we can be certain that the new SSN AUKUS design will be completed on time and budget by BAE in the UK.
Nevertheless in the unlikely event we need a Plan B, this might be a good one: a senior South Korean admiral has said South Korea needs nuclear powered submarines.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/11/south-korean-admiral-claims-that-nuclear-powered-submarines-are-necessary/aw
EU authorities have already considered the feasibility of France selling SSNs to SK.
https://brussels-school.be/sites/default/files/CSDS%20Policy%20brief_2121.pdf
And South Korea has previously expressed interest in the French design.
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/techwatch/2018/03/28/south-korea-eyes-french-design-for-indigenous-nuclear-sub-sources-say/
South Korean shipbuilding is quick, high quality and competitively priced. They could make an excellent partner to Australia.
Further on SK as a partner for SSNs, Australia already has a military technology sharing agreement with them, they are building the Redback AFV for the army in Geelong, and they are our third largest trading partner.
If South Korea joined AUKUS, or Australia had a side deal, this could work quite well. South Korea already make diesel subs for themselves and have exported to Indonesia.
High Streetsays:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 9:24 pm
TPOF
Dutton and his advisors still think the “Teal” seats are safe Liberal seats – Liberal Heartland no less. Many of the are actually very marginal on 2PP vs Labor now and i bet some will be nominally Labor seats after the election. One of them may very well be won by Labor, depending on what seats actually exist after the redistribution.
—————–
Teal seats are no more natural Labor seats than Hunter Valley seats are natural Liberal seats so while the ALP polled well on the TPP but after a decade in opposition.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 10:07 pm
High Streetsays:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 9:24 pm
TPOF
Dutton and his advisors still think the “Teal” seats are safe Liberal seats – Liberal Heartland no less. Many of the are actually very marginal on 2PP vs Labor now and i bet some will be nominally Labor seats after the election. One of them may very well be won by Labor, depending on what seats actually exist after the redistribution.
—————–
Teal seats are no more natural Labor seats than the Hunter Valley seats are natural Liberal seats so while the ALP polled well on the TPP but after a decade in opposition.
________________________________________________
I agree with you Mex.
It is possible for some shift – such as happened in Higgins, but these seats are blue ribbon economic and social Liberal seats. Teal members still represent the popular interests of those seats, which accord far more with the BCA than the ACTU. However, these members are more of a wild card because they have not come from a political stream (as advisors, lobbyists, party functionaries, etc). Which means that they are not as wedded to holding onto those seats at the expense of junking their personal values.
TPOF
I agree with you Mex.
It is possible for some shift – such as happened in Higgins, but these seats are blue ribbon economic and social Liberal seats. Teal members still represent the popular interests of those seats, which accord far more with the BCA than the ACTU. However, these members are more of a wild card because they have not come from a political stream (as advisors, lobbyists, party functionaries, etc). Which means that they are not as wedded to holding onto those seats at the expense of junking their personal values.
——————-
We have seen it before where once safe seats fall with a change of government and overtime become safe for the new party like Hughes and Lindsay were safe Labor during the Hawke/Keating years but are now safe Liberal but many seats quickly swing back to their former home once that party has spent time in opposition.
South Korea seeking nuclear powered submarines is the ultimate in penis envy.
South Korea has no need and no use for them. The home peninsula it occupies is already ‘ground zero’ and hence there simply isn’t a kinetic energy requirement for long range operations that typically justify a nuclear pivot.
Like Japan – and Taiwan for that matter – anything more than the equivalent of a type 218 or type 212 cd is overkill.
Nuclear subs for all three nations are literally a capability without a purpose.
As for notion that South Korea – a country that has yet to undergo the 30-50 year+ process that every other nuclear country has undertaken before it has anything resembling a mature nuclear submarine program could actually be a partner with Australia as an ‘AUKUS plan B’ is absurd. It makes AUKUS look brilliant by comparison.
Come on Socrates. You know better than to peddle such vapourware.
The change to Teal from Liberal is more fundamental than the change from one party of government to the other, Liberal to Labor or back again. It’s a fundamental change from Blue Ribbon Liberal to Independent. So, saying that these seats will revert to the Liberal Party now that they have been in Opposition, is underestimating the paradigm shift in those seats that has occurred. Not to mention that the Dutton Opposition have continued to exhibit the symptoms that made those voters who turned, sick.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 10:34 pm
South Korea seeking nuclear powered submarines is the ultimate in penis envy.
_______________
An Asian penis joke, really?
C@tmommasays:
Friday, November 17, 2023 at 10:36 pm
The change to Teal from Liberal is more fundamental than the change from one party of government to the other, Liberal to Labor or back again. It’s a fundamental change from Blue Ribbon Liberal to Independent. So, saying that these seats will revert to the Liberal Party now that they have been in Opposition, is underestimating the paradigm shift in those seats that has occurred. Not to mention that the Dutton Opposition have continued to exhibit the symptoms that made those voters who turned, sick.
————————
All the Teals would be favored to hold their seats but many of those seats will return to the Liberal fold unless the Teals become some kind of political party but looks unlikely or the AEC changes their boundaries to make them easier for the ALP and the Greens.
“He refuses to follow the code of ethics because he’s a corruption originalist.”
Mexicanbeemer @ #798 Friday, November 17th, 2023 – 10:44 pm
It’s true that there’s a lot riding on the Redistribution, especially in NSW. I don’t agree that the Teals need to become a political party. On the contrary, I feel that that would likely be their death knell. They were elected as non-party, so their electorates must be comfortable with that.
My electorate of North Sydney is part of the former Liberal heartland that is now held by a Teal. In fact we have form, having elected the Teal-like Ted Mack in the 1990s. He was re-elected for a second term and could have stayed as long as he wanted had he not voluntarily stood down.
North Sydney is prosperous and cosmopolitan inner suburban. It has a high proportion of professionals of various types and has a high level of educational attainment among its population. It has many people of Chinese and Indian heritage, plus people from every other background under the sun. To the extent that it is religious it’s a bit of everything. Many homes were lit up last week for Diwali. There’s a Mosque nearby, an old Scout Hall. Chinese New Year is a big thing. Then of course there are the Anglicans, Catholics and Uniting Churches, an Armenian Church, Orthodox and the rest. Plus the unbelievers.
Bottom line is, most here are unimpressed by dog-whistling, confected outrage, moral panic over those deemed “outsiders” and culture war crap. Most can see through the lies. Those who still vote Liberal do so out of self interest or personal values, not because they believe their bullshit.
So I am hopeful that the “Liberals” won’t be winning back North Sydney any time soon.
Anthony Albanese’s self-assurance, or “hubris” as described by some colleagues, contrasts with a growing number of Labor MPs and strategists who fear they will be lucky to form minority government when voters deliver their verdict in 2025.
The Weekend Australian understands Labor seats considered to be at risk include Paterson, Gilmore, Richmond, Bennelong, Reid and Robertson in NSW, Swan, Pearce, Tangney and Hasluck in WA, Boothby in South Australia, Chisholm, Higgins, Aston and McEwen in Victoria and Lyons in Tasmania. Electoral redistributions in NSW, Victoria and WA are also being watched closely.
Dutton’s strongman persona matches our grim times – but has he fired up his opponents as well? — Katharine Murphy
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/18/peter-dutton-strongman-persona-matches-our-grim-times-but-has-he-fired-up-his-opponents-as-well
Another 8 seats in play could be – Lingiari/Hunter/Parramatta/Blair/Shortland/Werriwa/Dobell/Macquarie.
Chalmers and Albanese, who share the same March 2 birth date 15 years apart, were both elected to parliament in their 30s and came from similar political staffing backgrounds.
The Weekend Australian understands there is a sense of wariness between the pair, who have never been close. They have a working relationship and understand their legacies are entwined.
“Dutton’s strongman persona matches our grim times – but has he fired up his opponents as well? — Katharine Murphy”
“The Weekend Australian understands there is a sense of wariness between the pair, who have never been close”
The telescope travelling through some minds in Australia is unravelling some old theories about having your head in a black hole, while holding your eyes tightly closed.