The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 54-46 at the poll conducted from October 4 to 12 in the lead-up to the referendum, from primary votes of Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 37% (up two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). This is the narrowest two-party Newspoll result since the election, eclipsing two of the last four results which had it at 53-47.
Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a tumble, down four on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 52%. The net rating of minus 10 is substantially weaker than his previous worst results for the term of minus one, likewise recorded in two of the previous four polls. Peter Dutton is at 37% approval and 50% disapproval, which is respectively up two and down three on the previous Newspoll result, but equal to the poll before. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 46-36, in from 51-31 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1220.
Also out today was the latest federal poll from RedBridge Group which has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54.1-45.9 in the pollster’s previous result from early September. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 17% (up three). The poll was conducted October 27 to November 2 from a sample of 1205.
meher baba,
Donald Trump is the one of the two who is actually showing real signs of senility. So Joe Biden needs an afternoon nap? He seems to cope pretty well with all that’s on his plate even if he does. Also, I look at my mother. She’s 82 and as sharp as a tack and could probably run the world for the next 4 years (though not as I would like 😀 ), so that’s why I can’t see a senescence argument being important in the scheme of things for Joe Biden. And, as you say, Rupert Murdoch is over a decade older than Biden and no one is questioning the quality of his marbles.
No, in America, at the end of the day, as in Australia, the choice for the electorate will come down to two things:
* The Economy and the messaging the Democrats and Labor need to get right about it.
* Do you want an Authoritarian with no respect for the Rule of Law, except as it can be used against their political opponents, to lead the country?
Morrison will run if there is not a better money offer elsewhere. If he wants to stay they know they will have to blast him out and that there will be maximum damage.
Hell, Morrison wouldn’t even get out of Kirribilli when his time there was up.
Think fingernails.
Still, there is hatred from Ugly towards Morrison so there might be some personal payback motivation.
‘The Greens say they would introduce an effective rent freeze across Brisbane by enacting massive land rates increases for any property investors who increase the rent. Ben Smee writes that the announcement today will be a centrepiece of the Greens’ campaign for the Brisbane city council, a city where nearly four in 10 homes are occupied by renters.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/06/greens-brisbane-city-council-battle-landlords-rent-prices-freeze‘
—————————-
Well, that is one sure way to reduce capital investment in rental properties.
The full details of the new Redbridge poll are now online.
November 2023 Federal Voting report
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/november-2023-federal-voting-report/
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Vote-intention-Nov-2023.pdf
UK Cartoons – remember, remember the 5th of November edition:
Dr D – don’t see the Israel comments as a problem for Monique Ryan in Kooyong if anyone even really noticed, given that Zoe Daniel didn’t seemed harmed in Goldstein when they ran her past comments on Israel at her and Goldstein has ten times the Jewish voters that Kooyong has.
I wouldn’t assume Haines is safe. The Vic Nationals surprisingly turfed all the country indies at the Vic state election (probably not noticed by many out of state amid Andrews’ emphatic victory overall) and the people behind that will have been working on removing Haines ever since.
C@tmomma @ 6.26am
“It’s all they’ve got. ”
Unfortunately the same forces that put together the ” alliance for Responsible Citizenship” have “got” the major financial resources across the the globe together with their very small minority of extremely rich people intent on maintaining their domination of the major trajectories of the uses of resources, progress, climate denial, inequality and waste all on side.
The power of the “control of media” no better exemplified in Australia than the media resources used to defeat the referendum, the same media resources now being used to attempt to sway an Australian electorate to get behind the current “yobbo” leading the coalition of Liberal and National ” Irresponsible Citizens, hoping to claw back domination of a very ” mindless” electorate to reinvent themselves as a government of the people.
Where is the overseas controlled Australian media and some illumination of the deceit, treachery, fraud and corruption institutionalized by ten years of “talking from one side of their faces” by an LNP that attempts to perpetuate the ” them and us” thinking which is the only tenet of successive LNP governments at all levels.
The latest LNP bandwagon talking point is the supposed “abandonment,” of the working class by the PM. FFS!
The LNP objection to the referendum was based on their notion that any money being spent to improve the lot of Australia’s worse off will be money controlled by a government in order to “get it’s cut”.
There are plenty of morons out their willing to close their minds and swallow for an LNP win at the next election even with the racist ex copper at the helm.
The current polling is close enough for any “responsible” citizen to be concerned about the power and influence of the media.
The findings from the NACC will not be the problem, any halfwit knows corruption, it’s getting the media to talk about it.
The domination of the ABC by the “the them and users” profiteers needs to be the first thing deconstructed by the NACC.
Abbott,Howard and Morrison strutting the “world stage” is Australian satire at its best!
Leroy @ #104 Monday, November 6th, 2023 – 9:12 am
Thank you, Leroy. 🙂
c@t: “Donald Trump is the one of the two who is actually showing real signs of senility. So Joe Biden needs an afternoon nap? He seems to cope pretty well with all that’s on his plate even if he does. Also, I look at my mother. She’s 82 and as sharp as a tack and could probably run the world for the next 4 years (though not as I would like ), so that’s why I can’t see a senescence argument being important in the scheme of things for Joe Biden. And, as you say, Rupert Murdoch is over a decade older than Biden and no one is questioning the quality of his marbles.”
That might all be true but, unlike Trump, Biden presents strongly as senile. To descend into a bit of hippy talk, his energy doesn’t seem quite right and it has been steadily getting worse. And then there’s the crucial fact that, if he does go seriously ga-ga, the backup is Kamala, whom simply nobody respects. If he had gone with his first idea of running with Amy Klobuchar as V-P, then that problem wouldn’t be there.
Was there ever a stupider chain of thought than the following: “George Floyd, something, something, so we simply have to have a black female VP, something, something, oh the only such person we can find whose views aren’t so extreme as to be electorally damaging is a woman from an Indian family in Montreal. But the good news is that she was born in the US and her father – who split when Kamala was seven – was a mixed race man from Jamaica.”
Kamala’s biography on Wikipedia abounds with stories (presumably placed there by her supporters) of how she was allegedly taken to African-American churches as a child and experienced racism as an African-American. But, rather like Obama, the truth is that her life and upbringing has barely taken her any closer than you or I to the world that George Floyd lived in. And at least Obama was a highly talented politician. The whole business was nothing more than window-dressing and everyone in the US, including African-Americans, sees right through it. It was a dumb political move and the consequences could be extremely bad, not only for the Democrats, but for the entire world.
Inflation is a harder beast to defeat as a government than unemployment. You can always stimulate an economy but it is very hard to slow parts of it compared to others. It is bit like how it is easier to feed the skinny but harder to get the overweight to shed the kilos.
From a voters point of view, not having a job and not being able to afford things sucks. But having a job and not being afford things sucks more (You’re working but still getting nowhere).
Cost of living is going to hurt the government unless there is some action they can take that helps people out without causing more inflation.
Morrison won’t go anywhere for two simple reasons.
1). He believes in resurrection.
2). He has nowhere to go.
QED.
meher baba,
Bigger than the Kamala issue is the Economy. It’s the same prayer that Joe Biden and Anthony Albanese should say every morning when they get up: “It’s the Economy, stupid!”
As Kos Samaras observes in his latest note to the Redbridge poll:
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/november-2023-federal-voting-report/
To which I would add, if I were the Albanese government, I’d be going out to seats like Werriwa and Blair to remind the people out there of Peter Dutton’s ‘All the way with Israel!’ stance. That’s where it will have resonance.
Rent-a-crowd loonies think Albo can solve all the world’s problems
This bit is priceless:
“A large pro-Palestinian rally was also held in Sydney on Saturday, before tens of thousands of protesters gathered in Melbourne calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and chanting ‘Shame Labor! Shame!” on Sunday.
Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters rallied in Washington, London, Paris and Berlin on Saturday calling for a ceasefire in Gaza after Iranians took to the streets against the United States and Israel.”
Yes because the LNP would be sooo much more pro-Palestine 🙄
also with the Iranians, surely it was just their weekly hate on US and Israel day 😆
“‘Shame on you’: Anthony Albanese’s $5k dinner hijacked by Palestine protesters”
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/shame-on-you-anthony-albaneses-5k-dinner-hijacked-by-palestine-protesters/news-story/37b064d21bba25a6bfa3679776ddc881
Having published his book in an effort to restore his reputation, an eager public increasingly ask ‘does ScoMo’s redemption arc bend towards the Lodge?’
The Hamas and Iran have an extensive network in other countries, and that includes Australia.
The RedBridge results show that the majority of Australians feel that the government’s priorities are not in the right place (50%). This is clearly a consequence of the Voice referendum. Those that were passionate about it saw it as essential but for the majority it was not important in their lives. Historically it will be seen as a poor political choice.
However, it also shows that a majority (50%) feel that a Dutton lead LNP is not ready for government. That is going to be the ALP’s saving grace.
Plus the consequences of the Voice vote will soon go away. Equally, the Gaza conflict is like to end within a few months and will go away as an issue.
B.S.Fairman,
Agreed. For most people, ‘It’s the Economy, stupid!’ 😀
C@t – But as I said the Economy with inflation is a lot harder to fix than with a recession. Keynesian treatment for recessions generally work but the treatment for Inflation is generally Interest Rate rises and voters hate those.
I see Morrison is gravitating towards the publicity of other peoples troubles and traveling with his mate Johnson. FFS ……… the Libs in Australia will be relieved when he buggers off from parliament and takes his desperate search for relevance elsewhere. 🙁 Hope the anti corruption commission does the bastard slowly.
B.S. Fairman @ #118 Monday, November 6th, 2023 – 10:22 am
True, and there has been chatter around that the Reserve Bank may not actually raise interest rates again tomorrow because they realise that inflation is not being generated by domestic drivers. So raising interest rates won’t have any effect on them. Also, that petrol prices are a de facto interest rate rise. I guess we’ll see tomorrow how that thinking goes. 🙂
Morrison will walk on his own out the door at the next election. Liberal experts on here think otherwise. Will find out in 1yr or 18mths who has the egg all over the face.
A summary of Trump’s legal woes, both civil & criminal:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/04/politics/trump-trials-what-matters/index.html
As judged by polling in 5 swing states, it appears his legal problems aren’t adversely affecting his chances at next year’s election. But there’s a chance he will turn feral tomorrow when taking the stand in his civil fraud trial in NY,
which could result in heavy sanctions, including a stint in the slammer. And of course, most of next year will be taken up with trials, guilty verdicts thereof resulting in serious time in prison. The question of whether he will avoid prison while campaigning to be president will be ultimately be decided by the SCOTUS, but given he ‘called for the termination of the Constitution’* , I’m not sure that he can rely on a favourable outcome by the court he stacked.
* https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/03/politics/trump-constitution-truth-social/index.html
IMO, while inflation is absolutely a factor, the big thing driving cost-of-living pressures right now are spiralling rents and mortgages combined with stagnant wage growth. People who own their home outright would be pretty insulated from this, and just see the prices at the grocery store and local cafes mildly ticking up every so often and wonder what everyone’s complaining about.
ScoMo is only not buggering off because there is no where for him to go.
Josh was able to get a job with Goldman Sachs but Morrison does not have the appeal for a corporate gig – his giving himself multiple jobs and negative royal commission findings are not the type of image a business wants.
There is zero chance of a “white monkey” role with a Chinese business because of his issues with the Chinese government.
There is not really an academic role that he would fit into – his marketing credentials have been tarnished by the 2022 election lose and the multiple jobs things rules him out of being a public administration or government chair role.
So that leaves his religious credentials – first evangelical PM – which might be a selling point to some of the conservative private colleges in America but even then his flavour of Christianity is not quite the same as most of the American and they tend to be xenophobic to some degree.
His singing career is unlikely to take off.
Has even got a book deal?
At least, Abbott has been able to sell himself as a pure conservative speaker on the international circuit but that route does not exist for Morrison as he did somethings that weren’t that conservative.
ASHA – Cost of living pressure and housing pressure are both part of the wider Inflation problem. So when I am talking about inflation I am really talking about all cost of living pressures.
Housing is a prick, because the cost of housing needs to fall but that then leaves people with debts bigger than their value of their homes… and that causes a different issue.
C@t, citing Kos Samaras:
“This country’s property boom, record levels of household debt, stagnating wages, countless interest rate rises and a political bubble more focused on social issues, has accelerated these trends. In our latest poll, the LNP has overtaken Labor amongst the less educated classes. Although this development will not pressure Labor in seats like Bennelong and Higgins, it will create a hotter environment for more results like Fowler and possibly losses to the LNP in seats like Werriwa and Blair – to name a couple.”
This is about a lot more than the econony IMO. There is a clear and present danger that, as has happened with a lot of white “blue collar” voters in the US, a growing group of traditional Labor voters across Australia are feeling that the party no longer belongs to them or is primarily concerned with representing their interests.
This is the issue of the “elite” which many scoff at, but it’s real enough in the minds of these alienated Labor voters (and, IMO, is a real and important political phenomenon, although the term “elite” isn’t the right one). The situation would be far worse if the political influence of the “elite” didn’t happen to be split between Labor and the Greens. In the US, where the Democrats are really the only game in town on the political left, the situation is more difficult: in the 2020 primaries, Biden’s poor early performances created a serious risk of Sanders becoming the nominee, which the party hierarchy avoided by pressuring most of the other serious candidates to drop out far earlier than they needed to.
c@t (speaking for yourself) “…if I were the Albanese government, I’d be going out to seats like Werriwa and Blair to remind the people out there of Peter Dutton’s ‘All the way with Israel!’ stance. That’s where it will have resonance.”
What a simply dreadful idea. “Vote for us because we’re not as fond of the Jews as the other mob.” Please stop having that thought.
Asha: “MO, while inflation is absolutely a factor, the big thing driving cost-of-living pressures right now are spiralling rents and mortgages combined with stagnant wage growth. People who own their home outright would be pretty insulated from this, and just see the prices at the grocery store and local cafes mildly ticking up every so often and wonder what everyone’s complaining about.”
Swinging voters tend to be mortgagees, rather than retirees who own their own homes. So I reckon interest rate rises are more important than anything else: far more important than price rises at the shops and cafes, which people are capable of managing without much pain by cutting back on a few luxury items. But interest rate rises directly cut their disposable incomes.
With so many new home buyers opting for fixed rates for 3-5 years, the impact of the current round of interest rate rises is only just starting to bite. There are going to be a lot of unhappy people out there in voter land.
But I expect that the overwhelming desire to give a new government a second term will outweigh those feelings.
Hey Michael, do you think any current or former LNP MP’s will get nailed by the NACC?
Tomorrow the Reserve Bank meet.
Will there be a rate rise?
Vic – Yes. Question is will it be 25 basis points or only 15.
@meher:
“ Biden presents strongly as senile. To descend into a bit of hippy talk, his energy doesn’t seem quite right and it has been steadily getting worse. And then there’s the crucial fact that, if he does go seriously ga-ga, the backup is Kamala, whom simply nobody respects. If he had gone with his first idea of running with Amy Klobuchar as V-P, then that problem wouldn’t be there.”
President Klobuchar. Be still, my beating heart …
Team Katich @ #26 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 10:31 pm
Fair comment.
Albo has the great benefit of having an opponent who is so lacking in quality and substance.
He needs to stop giving ground to the conservative forces and 20th century thinkers in this country and start being a progressive in this era of great transition. Voters will reward a progressive.
“ Voters will reward a progressive.”
____
Where is this magical land you speak of? I’d like to emigrate there immediately.
Edited: Eureka! I‘ve found it:
https://youtu.be/JqowmHgxVJQ?feature=shared
Another China visit, the last of the Flying Tigers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO_DIXxYhpU
meher baba: “Also, you might say that the WA Liberals aren’t as crazy as the NSW Liberals, but haven’t they produced people like Noel Crichton-Browne, Troy Buswell and Andrew Hastie?”
And let’s not forget Wilson ‘Iron Bar’ Tuckey.
I have a level of sympathy for NSW voters who have likely forgotten or never had a good progressive Govt delivering for them.
Granny Anny. I couldn’t care less. If someone has done something seriously wrong, they get nailed no matter what the side. If its some garbage charge, they keep doing that, then shut the commission down.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/11/06/honeymoon-albanese-newspoll
AE I agree that Klobuchar is no excitement machine. But she’s smart and would be seen as a safe pair of hands.
Kamala comes across as being out of her depth. That might not even be true, but in politics perception is 90% of reality
meher baba
“although the term “elite” isn’t the right one”
What is the right term?
Coalition corruption was the norm in the past decade. BAU.
There is not the slightest sign of integrity from the Coalition in opposition. BAU.
Why expect an Ugly Duttonite to give fig? BAU.
Lol.
But seriously, these lying conmen have such gall to be grandstanding like this.
Look at the faux tough pose on the washed-up has-been! What in the hell is he doing there?
Is ScoMo more hated than the Rodent on Pb?
For a 3 yr PM he seems to engender more rage than the 12 yr PM.
UN Envoy to the Middle East, anyone?
“My visit has been a revelation,” Mr Morrison said. “I’m Rapt to really get stuck into ensuring the Plan unfolds as intended.”
Rewisays:
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 12:13 pm
meher baba
“although the term “elite” isn’t the right one”
What is the right term?
_____________________
Wokester. Or maybe just wanker would suffice.
Taylormade @ #146 Monday, November 6th, 2023 – 12:32 pm
The Melbourne Institute headline monthly inflation gauge fell by 0.1% in October with the annual growth rate easing to 5.1% from 5.7% in September. It was the first month of falling prices in 14 months.
The good burghers of The Shire must love getting treated like mugs. ScoMo has just done more ‘local constituency work’ for a Kibbutz in Southern Israel than he has for Caringbah in the past 18 months.
The ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads index fell by 3% in October – the most in 26 months – to 139.6 points, the lowest level since January 2022.