Click here for full display of Rockingham by-election results.
Final result (August 5)
Quicker than I would have expected, the WAEC has conducted its full preference count. My projection was correct in suggesting independent Hayley Edwards, who polled 15.9% of the primary vote, would overtake Liberal candidate Peter Hudson, on 17.7%, to make the final count. This she did with 4823 votes (22.1%) at the last exclusion to Hudson’s 4590 (21.0%). The final result was 13,412 (61.4%) to Labor’s Magenta Marshall and 8443 (38.6%) to Edwards, compared with the 10.8% winning margin projected by my preference estimates. The media feed still records an abandoned TCP count between Marshall and Hudson, which is reflected in what’s on my results page.
Live commentary
11pm. I have corrected a preference model that was significantly flattering Labor in its projected lead over Hayley Edwards, which I now have at 10.7% rather than 16.1%. Edwards rather than the Liberal candidate is projected to make the final count because the preference model has her ahead 23.1% to 21.9% at the final exclusion. Happily, the WAEC’s notional two-candidate count means the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party preferred is recorded for posterity, at least up to the present point in the count. For all the contingent factors that undoubtedly contributed to the 22.5% swing, it is notable that it exceeds Labor’s statewide winning margin in 2021.
8.31pm. The WAEC feed doesn’t seem to have updated for about 15 minutes, which might suggest that’s it for the evening.
8.24pm. My results page is updating again after a bit of a blip, and the two-party swing against Labor is now north of 20% — higher than they would like, but not a disaster of the scale intimated by the opinion poll. That’s if the Liberal candidate indeed finishes second ahead of Hayley Edwards, which remains unclear. In any case, Labor’s Magenta Marshall has at all times looked to be in the ballpark of 50% on the primary vote and in zero danger of actually losing.
7.56pm. The WAEC is now letting its TCP results into the wild, which show what I reckon to be a 17% swing against Labor. This would be a bad result for them under normal circumstances, but it may be noted that the Utting Research poll recorded a 24% swing, without the loss of a Mark McGowan personal vote being a factor as it presumably is here.
7.52pm. Types rows have been restored to my results table.
7.30pm. A huge 5037 votes that I thought were going to be counted under “Rockingham EVC” have been added as “Early Votes (In Person)”. That they don’t have their own line on my page at this stage due to the bug discussed below is disappointing, but the results are entirely in line with the norm in having Magenta Marshall with almost exactly half of the primary vote.
7.28pm. My probability gauge isn’t quite doing what it should be — “probability unavailable as preference count unclear” should only be appearing if the distinction could conceivably make a difference to result, and it is clear Labor will win regardless of whether Hayley Edwards or the Liberals make the final count.
7.22pm. Eight booths now, but the overall trends are so clear that distinctions between them individually are pretty fine.
7.15pm. The special hospitals, remotes and mobiles has reported, so I was wrong to say earlier that the “types” rows wouldn’t be needed this evening. This amounts to 129 formal votes, the results of which you can work out by comparing the difference between the “polling booths sub-total” and “total” rows.
7.12pm. The early voting centre has reported with only 688, which I’m puzzled by because nearly 11,000 early votes were cast and most of them would have been there. Perhaps the result there will be updated progressively. Since my projections assumed as much, they are now out of whack.
7.07pm. Five booths in on the primary vote, and either there are no TCPs reporting yet or the WAEC is sitting on the results because it’s not sure the Liberal candidate will come second.
7.05pm. The WAEC’s TCP count, for which we have no results yet, is Labor versus Liberal.
7.02pm. I’ve done an ugly fix on the big issue by removing the “types” rows, which we won’t be needing tonight anyway. Four booths now on the primary vote, and while Labor has dipped below 50% on the raw primary vote, I’m projecting them to make it just over when all the votes are in. Nothing to separate Hayley Edwards and the Liberal candidate for second, but this will ultimately be academic.
6.58pm. Making progress on the bug fixes, but not all the way there yet. Now we’ve got three booths in, and the projection continues to be for a Labor primary vote in the low fifties.
6.53pm. We have a booth in, and while my system has a bug of some description, the result you can see is Bungaree Primary School, where the swings are consistent with Labor scoring slightly over 50% of the primary vote.
6pm. Polls have closed, and with that the start of a nervous wait for both candidates and those of us who are hoping our live results pages will function smoothly. For the time being my set-up assumes the WAEC’s notional two-candidate count will be between Labor and Liberal, but it can’t be ruled out that they will have gone with independent Hayley Edwards rather than the Liberal. The WAEC has unusual practices on this count – if memory serves, it only publishes the results once it is satisfied the candidates it has picked are the correct ones. My own projection will make up its own mind as to who the leading candidates are, and will work off preference estimates unless and until the WAEC has numbers for the same pair of candidates as those determined by my system.
Saturday morning
Today is the day of the by-election for the Western Australian state seat of Rockingham, arising from the unanticipated retirement of Mark McGowan. Here I offer my customary overview of the by-election; here, my coverage of a state opinion poll this week that greatly increased the level of interest surrounding the by-election; and here, if you’re a Crikey subscriber, my account of the potential federal implications of a collapse in Labor support in Western Australia, if that’s indeed what we’re seeing. This post will supplemented with live coverage of the account from 6pm this evening, and the site will as usual feature its famed live results, offering projections, probability estimates and a booth results map.
The West Australian is reporting that Rockingham deputy mayor and independent candidate Hayley Edwards is emerging as an outside chance, after a straw poll it conducted at pre-polling found 22 out of 73 respondents saying they had voted for her, compared with 34 for Labor candidate Magenta Marshall (leaving only 17 for others, among them Liberal candidate Peter Hudson). Another report in the paper today breathlessly relates a late change in Labor’s how-to-vote card has moved Edwards from third to eighth, ahead only of obscure independent Peter D. Dunne. This is sold as a “sign the ALP is worried the election for the long-held and uber-safe seat will be decided on preferences”, though the logic behind this is unclear.
It is one thing for a result to be “decided on preferences”, which will happen in the seemingly plausible event that Labor’s primary vote falls from the 82.8% Mark McGowan received in 2021 to below 50%. But the preferences of those who vote Labor will only enter the equation if its candidate fails to reach the final count, which would require what Kevin Bonham described yesterday as “the worst result in the history of everything”. It should be noted that the change in Labor’s how-to-vote card is a response in kind to Edwards, a former party member whose own how-to-vote card equally has all comers but Peter D. Dunne ahead of Magenta Marshall.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the Rockingham by-election. The open thread for general discussion is here.
“… though the logic behind this is unclear.”
Political pundits propagate piss poor psephology.
In the lead up.to the Victorian election last year, elements of the media tried to create the narrative the Andrews government was teetering on the electoral brink. The rest of the media blindly followed suit, for fear of missing an emerging trend.
Of course the Alp vote will drop. 82.8% is unsustainable. State Daddy’s personal vote is huge. The media will have a field day. The rest of the population won’t bat an eyelid.
Thank you as always, Sir William.
Kevin Bonham’s blog post on the subject is worth a read:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/07/rockingham-by-election-2023-how-big.html?m=1
Guardian blog:
“Fractures have also emerged in the Labor party in the Rockingham area after its candidate, Magenta Marshall, was selected.
“The deputy mayor of Rockingham, Hayley Edwards, felt locked out of the selection process and is running as an independent.”
Yeah surely this is one of the very best places to put a factional hack into, difficult to imagine anyone who knows WA Labor being surprised at being locked out of preselection, WA Labor ‘preselections’ happen in a backroom with only factional powerbrokers casting any votes.
Would be lovely to see Hayley upset the machine, but it seems something even she wouldn’t seriously consider a possibility.
All elections are decided on a knife edge prior to the event. It feeds a more dramatic media narrative, drives column inches, and is impossible to refute given that not one of us can genuinely predict the future.
Regardless, no matter how close or how far away the pundits were in hindsight, we will thereafter be subjected to at least three more days of column inches explaining why everyone (sic) got it so wrong.
You’d assume the loss of McGowan’s rather gigantic personal vote will make this a tighter contest than it otherwise should be, and by the sounds of it, WA Labor preselected the wrong candidate.
Mabw
Yes, it is easy to spot the narrative-building for those who are politically aware.
All sides do it, but with the MSM captured by right-wing thugs, it is easier for the Libs to do it.
It happens with everything in the news now and is becoming boring.
This is a little bit comparable to the Vic Park by-election back in 2006 – a popular Labor premier resigning halfway through his second term (although the 2005 election was… slightly less emphatic than 2021). Low turnout, 5% swing against, still a fairly safe seat.
A year later, Labor got a swing TO them in the Peel by-election, despite the vacancy being caused by a corruption scandal. A year an a half later than that, they lost government. Take-home lesson from that? By-elections, especially state ones, don’t usually predict heaps.
My very rough guess: 20% 2pp swing to the Libs (whether or not they actually come second). Big enough so tomorrow’s West can scream about potential minority government, while keeping it a safe seat.
The old PB threads from back then are worth a read. Especially the comments. (How often can you say that about PB these days? 😛 )
https://www.pollbludger.net/category/western-australian-politics/page/27/
here we go
I don’t think you mentioned all the candidates, of which I am one. After collecting 10,000 signatures for a petition for an Emergency Department at the Rockingham Hospital in the early nineties (when the population was 40,000), I stood for council. I lost to someone backed by a political party, a gentleman name Mark McGowan. When Mike Barnett retired, I stood as an Independent. I lost to Mark McGowan, in 1996 when he was first elected. He has run out of puff. I haven’t!
As premier of a state more than half the size of Europe, Mark McGowan neglected his own back yard, and his office has been closed for years. Seeing so many issues that urgently need addressing in Rockingham, I couldn’t NOT stand. The difficulty has been getting enough eyeballs on my campaign website. The Sound Telegraph (and the now defunct Weekend Courier) used to give each candidate 200 words and a mugshot. They defied this convention this time, and skewed coverage to the candidates paying the bills through advertising. It is a pity pundits like yourself do not research the background of other candidates, falling into the same trap as the Editor of the Sound Telegraph, which I note is run by remote control with no office in Rockingham, the area it serves!
Bird of Paradox:
I was having a read through the live results thread for the 2015 Queensland Election a little while back, because I’m the sort of sad person who does stuff like that. The references to WA Labor’s absolutely hopeless opposition leader, Mark McGowan, made me chuckle.
There aren’t that many by-elections in WA these days. Running through the recent decades:
1980s: 16
1990s: 9
2000s: 7
2010s: 4
2020s (so far): 2
Most of the ones in the 80’s don’t even have Wikipedia articles on them. The 1989-89 parliament had 10 by-elections – not bad for only three years!
Asha: that would’ve been about the time some Labor hacks had an entirely serious fever dream of getting Stephen Smith into state parliament. Via Baldivis, apparently (which ended up being third time lucky for Reece Whitby).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-13/stephen-smith-pledges-challenge-wa-labor-if-caucus-support/7243052
One of the related links at the bottom of that story:
Yeah… that aged well. (That’s John Halden, best known for his role in the Penny Easton scandal in the early 90s – also not very flamboyant.)
From what I remember, a lot of the 1980’s by-elections were related to the WA Inc. scandal of the time.
I think I put the results of those by-elections into the district result pages, since I had the data for the voting numbers but not the details of the by-elections themselves, like here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_district_of_Balga
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_district_of_Ascot
Gee, the old electoral commission isn’t in much of a hurry are they.
“… the projection continues to be for a Labor primary vote in the low fifties.”
So, probably not “decided on preferences”, contrary to the press punditry.
WA Inc started biting a little bit later. Brian Burke and Mal Bryce (his deputy) left in 1988, before everything started falling apart. A year later Labor were damn lucky to win the 1989 election (31 seats out of 57 with a 47.6% 2pp!), and another year later they were even more lucky to not lose the by-elections caused by Peter Dowding and David Parker (4.5% and 7.5% swings).
Earlier in that term: two MPs died (ALP and Nat), and six others left for whatever reason (3 ALP, 3 Lib – including Terry Burke, Brian’s brother). Must’ve been something in the water in the mid-80’s.
Labor down to the high 40’s in primary votes now. They’ll still likely win, but it will probably go down to preferences.
Liberal and Independent Hayley Edwards pretty much even on 15% each, it’s still up in the air which of them will end up in second place.
William, tiny nitpick: the HR in your results link needs to be LA.
Clive Galetly, PB’s own in-house independent cleaning up on 1% of the vote. The big booths aren’t in yet.
Labor set to win on the primary vote.
Is it Clive or Arthur? He seems to go by both names. There’s an Arthur Galletly who ran in the 1990 Maylands by-election – came last with just 12 votes. Also a Clive Galletly who ran in 1989 against Carmen Lawrence in Glendalough (last with 5% – only the main two, Grey Power and him running), while Arthur ran in Rockingham in both 1993 and 1996.
Here’s his FB page…
https://www.facebook.com/TheRemedialMassageGuy/
So much for the Newcorpse doom merchants.
It doesn’t even look like much of a swing for the Libs.. more that a celebrity local independent has siphoned off a relatively handful of Labor voters.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cannabis voters preferences make this seat end up as a Labor vs Independent 2PP rather than Lab/Lib.
Imagine WA Labor would be happy with this result – looks something approaching 75-25 2PP if the Liberals manage to make the final two. The Libs look like they’ll either fall short or barely improve their result in Rockingham at the 2017 state election (18.0%) so not a great sign for their broader appeal.
Another by-election where Legalise Cannabis exceeds the Greens vote. That’s interesting. Could this be a trend?
“The West Australian” doing a spin that would make Dennis Shanahan proud:
“Labor has dodged a bullet, retaining Rockingham despite a massive drop in their primary vote.”
Well, on what we’ve seen so far, it’s looking like a reversion to the norm after the craziness of 2021. Pretty dismal result for the Lib, though – most of the swing from Labor seems to have gone to the Independent. Doubt the Cook government will be too concerned about this, though it does perhaps suggest that the days of insane, record-setting landslides are over.
Legalise Cannabis doing pretty well: fourth, ahead of the Greens. 13-14% in a few booths (Cooloongup, Hillman, East Waikiki – the candidate’s a Rockingham councillor, so it’s probably her local patch). Only about 5% on early votes though.
The three Rockingham council wards (Rockingham / Safety Bay, Comet Bay, Baldivis) roughly correspond to the state seats of Rockingham, Warnbro and Baldivis (plus/minus redistribution tinkering). Hayley Edwards represents Baldivis ward – she might be a chance in that seat in 2025. Another councillor (from that ward) gave it a good shake in 2017 – took Reece Whitby to preferences in what was supposed to be a safe seat in a landslide election.
I’m still not sure who will get second place here, either Peter Hudson of the Liberals or the Independent Hayley Edwards.
Since I assume most of the remaining votes to be counted are Postal votes, which would favour the Liberals in the primary vote at least, a lot of the preferences from the other candidates could be enough to boost Edwards above them in the 3-candidate preferred count.
A 17% swing at the general would still leave Labor with a good majority.
Obviously, the 2021 election was a massive outlier. McGowan was unbelievably popular in the wake of his handling of COVID.
If your look at the 2017 election, McGowan’s margin was 73-27.
https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2017/electorate/ROC/results
A result of roughly 66-34, for a new, unknown, Labor candidate is really a case of “Move along. Nothing to see here.”
Legalise Cannabis got more votes than Greens political party again in another by-election.
Kirsdake:
Could be. Under the new upper house system, they’re pretty certain to get a seat (quota = 2.6%), and might even be in the mix for a second, so they’ll be having a solid go in 2025. They’ve currently got two MLCs thanks to Glenn Druery’s dark magic, so that’s probably some kind of organisational base.
Playing the fun-although-pointless game of “apply by-election results to the pendulum”: Labor would lose every seat up to about Hillarys (19.0%), so 19 seats. Still leaves them with 34 – a solid enough majority for a third term. They’d wear that pretty happily.
”
DB Coopersays:
Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 10:25 pm
Obviously, the 2021 election was a massive outlier. McGowan was unbelievably popular in the wake of his handling of COVID.
If your look at the 2017 election, McGowan’s margin was 73-27.
https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2017/electorate/ROC/results
A result of roughly 66-34, for a new, unknown, Labor candidate is really a case of “Move along. No
”
I think Heritage act scare campaign by Stokes media and Liberals seems to have worked.
Not good looking good for new Premier. McGowan is once in a life time political leader. People in his electorate would have been extremely disappointed and pissed when he resigned because they gave once in a life time victory.
While Legalise Cannabis hasn’t yet indicated that it’s running a candidate for the Warrandyte by-election in August, this result might incline them to do so, since nominations close on 9 August.
If they decide to run in that, I’d be curious to see how they go, even though otherwise I think that would be an almost certain Liberal retain with Labor not running.
“A result of roughly 66-34, for a new, unknown, Labor candidate is really a case of “Move along. Nothing to see here.””
No, no, no, no, no, no……… that just wont do as it would not fit the narrative of resurgent and resilient Liberals (both of them!!) bravely striving to free Western Australia from the yoke of the McGowan dictatorship and make it a place where battlers like our Gina can unselfishly guide our leader in the correct ways achieving true prosperity and justice and desirable distribution of wealth !!
Get with the program you!! 🙂
Kirsdarke: Labor got 33% last time in Warrandyte, so that’s up for grabs. That could go to the Greens, Vic Socialists or Legalise Cannabis – probably all three. (Do Reason still exist?)
They won, Ven.
@Kirskdarke:
The only reason the ALP is not running in Warrandyte (vic) is they don’t think they can win it.
They don’t need any more seats and the libs have selected exactly the wrong candidate. The new candidate is a Deeming in waiting. If Labor had run and won, they would have a seat for now that they would almost certainly lose at the next general election. Meanwhile the Vic Libs have given themselves another headache. They will celebrate and carry on, but the victory will be Pyrrhic. The Herald-Sun will say they are back in town. The ABC and Costello papers will follow their lead. But the polls won’t move.
Back to WA: This by-election result will be met with the same media frenzy. The ALP has romped home but the Libs will be feted as ‘back in town’. They’re not. The libs are going to finish third. Their vote is just in to double figures.
The really interesting take away is that the Legalise Cannabis have finished well ahead of the Greens. Of course their r’aison d’etre disappears the moment cannabis is legalised. Bizarrely a Labor government might hold off on that inevitable step just to hamstring the Greens!
@MABWM
Yeah, that makes sense. I had the feeling that Labor were not going to run for Warrandyte since the result in Fadden 2 weeks ago.
On the whole, yeah, this Rockingham result seems to be a fairly local result. Yes, Anti-Labor opinions will focus on the 30%+ drop in Labor’s primary vote, but the big picture is that barely a quarter of that went to the Liberals. The rest was spread out amongst a local high profile Independent and minor parties.
So at the end of the night the Labor PV is just shy of 50% while the Liberal vote remains under 20% and the 2PP is 65/35. Will Dutton boast about that??
DBCooper is right. Taking away McGowan’s huge personal vote the electorate has reverted to the long term average, meaning still solidly pro-Labor.
Legalise Cannabis (or other microparties) beating the Greens in by-elections in outer suburban seats where the Greens have never polled well (they got into double figures once, in 2008, and usually were far lower) is a “water is wet” result. The only thing different is the specific microparty.
The Stephen Smith-for-Premier-because-McGowan-isn’t-electable was possibly the funniest political fever dream I’ve ever seen, and I’m glad I was in WA at the time to enjoy it.
MABWM is on the money about Warrandyte. The status quo is good for Vic Labor. Why stop your opponents while they’re making mistakes?
By-elections don’t make good general election barometers and this one is so extraordinary it’s pretty meaningless.
The only thing that looks significant is the Legalise Weed vote. They did well in Victoria and NSW, and outpolled the Greens in Fadden as well.
As a member of the Greens, I’m stoked to see another Left of Labor party doing so well. The Greens brand has been tarnished by decades of mud-slinging by everyone from Keating to Murdoch.
I would be thrilled if it turned out there was a huge constituency in favour of Left of Labor policies who can’t bring themselves to vote Green for whatever reason.
WA Liberals will arrange a meeting of all their MPs to discuss the result. Meeting is believed to be held shortly in the telephone box outside Parliament House.
This result doesn’t seem consistent with a racist tidal wave to the libs. Perhaps the people of Rockingham are uniquely civilised in all of WA.
How does wanting to legalize Dope make a party ‘left wing’ exactly? What nonsense.
Yeah the Utting poll was about as far from reality as I thought. This is where you’d expect going in without that poll, with the loss of McGowan’s personal vote added to reversion to the mean after the extraordinary 2021 election and the usual anti government kick at a byelection. It reflects the government still strongly in the lead overall.
I never like not running in a seat, even though I grasp the tactics in Warrandyte.
Clem: the right wing stance in Australia is to lambast even safe injecting rooms and to refer to groups like Legalise Cannabis as junkies. The track record of Legalise Cannabis voters is to preference the Greens and ALP ahead of Libs. So yeah – left wing minor party. Don’t worry, they’re not the evil DLP in disguise.
Kevin Bonham:
“Sunday: It is notable that Labor’s 2PP at a by-election with the seat vacant will exceed its 2PP in this seat at three elections that Labor won and where its candidate in this seat was an incumbent. The by-election is consistent with Labor still being a long way in front statewide.
“With the gap between Hudson and Edwards only 1.7%, I note that William Bowe projects (i) that Edwards will overtake Hudson on preferences (ii) that the Labor-Edwards 2CP will finish around 61-39.”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/07/rockingham-by-election-2023-how-big.html
@Clive Galletly
,……area it serves!
“Purports to serve,” surely. Elsewise, spot on. Vintage rhetoric!