Less than a week to go until the Fadden by-election, though I’m afraid there’s no specific news of consequence to relate concerning it. Last week I suggested that Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and a Resolve Strategic poll might be imminent, which still holds a week later. We should also be seeing proposed new state electoral boundaries for Western Australia at some point over the coming fortnight. Other than that:
• Victoria’s long-awaited Warrandyte by-election has been set for August 26. Labor sources cited by Rachel Baxendale of The Australian say the party is “highly unlikely to run”, although The Age reports Labor MPs are “privately pressuring the party to contest”, backed by “a fair bit of pressure coming from the branches”.
• The Financial Review has published further results from this week’s Queensland state poll from Freshwater Strategy showing 50% opposition to the Indigenous Voice with only 36% in support and 14% undecided, breaking out to 58-42 with the latter excluded. The results in Brisbane were 40% supportive and 47% opposed, compared with 31% and 53% in the rest of the state.
• Right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has been dumped from the Liberal National Party’s ticket for the next election after a vote at the party’s state conference, despite backing from Peter Dutton. His third position, which did not avail Amanda Stoker when she held it at last year’s election, will instead go to Stuart Fraser, who reportedly won the final round of the vote by 134 to 131. Fraser is the LNP’s treasurer and director of a private investment fund, also noted for his involvement with the Tattersalls Club and the Catholic Archdiocese of Brisbane. The Guardian reports Fraser survived the final exclusion by four votes ahead of Nelson Savanh of strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander, then narrowly prevailed as moderate support coalesced behind him. Another contestant for the position, Sophia Li, a former adviser to Shadow Defence Industry Minister Luke Howarth, takes the fourth position, while former state Hinchinbrook MP and Newman government minister Andrew Cripps is fifth.
• Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of Matt Kean, senior minister in the recently ousted state government and noted factional moderate, running at the next federal election in Bradfield should Paul Fletcher choose to retire, or alternatively against teal independent Kylea Tink in North Sydney. Dominic Perrottet was said to be resisting overtures to run in North Sydney or challenge Alex Hawke for preselection in Mitchell, and was likely to quit politics. There was “no indication” Gladys Berejiklian or Mike Baird might run, despite reported urgings from senior Liberals. Berowra MP Julian Leeser might be challenged by conservatives displeased with his support for the Indigenous Voice, but was “likely to survive”. Such questions may be settled later rather than sooner after a vote for the party’s state presidency was won by former Mackellar MP Jason Falinski, who is reportedly dubious about Peter Dutton’s determination to have all candidates preselected by October.
The wisest foreign policy is to encourage China to think it has a standing right to determine when it feels antagonized.
Latest Morgan.
ALP two-party preferred support decreases; ALP 54.5% L-NP 45.5%
https://roymorganresearch.cmail19.com/t/j-l-ekdnly-ouhituihd-d/
PageBoi @ #994 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 5:25 pm
Pumping billions of taxpayer dollars into new fossil fuel projects speaks much louder than joining a ‘climate club’.
The Han know who they are: discuss.
“They”: discuss
Pity there are no Bludgers of Han Chinese decent:)
Unpossible.
July 2023 was always going to be the start of
Dutton’s and Lib/nats political nightmare , as with bad nightmares those who are going to be harmed by nightmares (Dutton and his cronies) go into hiding.
There is no sign of these political nightmares going away for Dutton and cronies for a while yet
It was a good day for Australia when Kolonel Untung, Beijing’s proxy, got himself topped: discuss.
Of course we have the last miserly remnant of the DLP giving their China phobia another walk.
Will deflation do for Xi? Surely yet another debt-fueled stimulus by Chicommie technocrats will save the day?
If one wanted to be accurate and understand the number objectively, how would one go about adding up the fatalities in Tibet to get to 600,000?
PageBoi @ #988 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 5:25 pm
Dang! She stole my line … ok, she probably wrote it before I did, but still …
Ven
“When Europeans go to war they involve the whole world. For example WW1 and WW2
But when Asian countries go to war, it is a war between those countries.
For example, Indo-Pak and Sino-India warr, Sino-japanese.
European mindset is that if it is a European problem, then it is world problem. If it is World problem it is not Europe problem. (BTW, I didn’t say that. I am quoting some one else)”
Whether you said it or not, it’s crap. European wars were within Europe until colonial days (there were the Crusades, of course) and even with colonialisation they were localised, in the main, to a region, eg Boer, Algeria, Suez, Opium etc. The first global war was, arguably, the Seven Years War (1756 – 1763) and then the Napoleonic Wars thanks to the various European powers trying to expand their empires.
You’d hardly call the Franco-Prussian war or the Norman Conquest wars that involved “the whole world”.
Themunzsays:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 5:41 pm
Pity there are no Bludgers of Han Chinese decent:)
How would you know!
Hey do you remember the time the US invaded Russia?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Expeditionary_Force,_Siberia
How would you know there are no Han Chinese here?
I went to school with a Chinese guy whose parents whipped him for not coming in the top 5 in the year in ENGLISH.
So it’s impossible to tell from syntax.
This may be of interest to Enough Already.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/07/10/how-many-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-in-ukraine?etear=nl_today_2&utm_id=1678474
When pointing out the history of Chinese internal wars, I was not trying to imply that China/Chinese are somehow “worse” than the west. The west started plenty of wars in the distant and recent past.
I agree with Hume and think human nature is largely the same in different ethnicities and influenced by culture and upbringing. Hopefully education improves it, but Lenin and others demonstrate that well educated people can still cause a lot of blood to be spilt.
So I’m still a fan of “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Or join a collective that shares a stick.
That means I accept AUKUS with reservations, and would prefer we switched to Spanish frigates and French nuclear subs, simply to avoid being ripped off, and to make faster progress. Evening all.
World War One involved almost all independent countries outside of South and Central America by the end. The majority of the fighting was in Europe but there was fighting in the Middle East, Africa and China.
World War two involved basically every nation on earth, even if they were neutral. The World in the pacific and Asia was extremely bloody. Global trade was crippled.
Both should be called World Wars because they effected the whole world significantly. World War One looks like a European civil war in hindsight but that fails to see that there were far fewer independent countries in Asia and Africa (Liberia, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Thailand, China and Japan were the only independent countries).
Socrates, you do realise you have spent most of your posts this afternoon rebutting a point that PJK never even made, don’t you?
WeWantPaul says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 3:47 pm
“In 1956, a private Filipino citizen, Tomás Cloma, unilaterally declared a state on 53 features in the South China Sea, calling it “Freedomland”. In December 1974, Cloma was arrested and forced to sign a document to convey to the Philippines whatever rights he might have had in the territory for one peso.[33] Cloma sold his claim to the Philippine government, which annexed (de jure) the islands in 1978, calling them Kalayaan.[citation needed] On 11 June 1978, President Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines issued Presidential decree No. 1596, declaring the Spratly Islands (referred to therein as the Kalayaan Island Group) as Philippine territory.[34]”
If wiki has this right, then well personally I’m stunned that China was not convinced by this.
—————————-
Perhaps though the real issue is that this is considered internationally as disputed territory and not to be settled by anyone until a formal decision is made. There is no place for unilateral decisions in international law.
AE is correct, Keating has nothing to answer for in that statement. The usual suspects have once again leapt in without really comprehending what he was saying.
P1 wrote, “Boerwar is terrified of the chinese: discuss.”
I have consistently posited a theory concerning that matter, his ideas being heavily influenced by the work of Bob Santam…..
Socrates:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 5:35 pm
Mavis
“Roberts-Smith’s appeal will only serve to delay the inevitable.”
[‘There has never been a better time to be a lawyer. I predict Morrison and Roberts will also be generous to their profession over years to come.’]
I’m thinking of rehanging my shingle. If Roberts-Smith retains Moses, he’d be foolish. I don’t think even Bret Walker, who got Pell off, would succeed. If Besanko erred in law or fact, it would probably only be minor, and if I’m right, an appeals court would apply the proviso, meaning that despite minor errors, no substantial miscarriage of justice occurred. But then again, I didn’t think the High Court would find in Pell’s favour.
uComms just sent me a survey via SMS asking who I was going to vote for in the Fadden byelection.
I told them Labor was getting my vote and I’m confident most in Fadden will do so.
Only problem is I live over 1,oookms from Fadden, not even in the same state.
Has anyone heard of this uComms mob or have I been scammed.
If they’re legit I would be very wary of their polling, as I doubt that I’m not the only person that’s not on the Fadden electoral roll that has been surveyed.
Survey ended with a reminder not to forget to vote on Saturday.
Better start looking for flights!
Good for a laugh though!
@BW
‘After 35 years of the Coalition/Greens dicking Australia on CC we have 43/30.
And don’t the Coalition/Greens hate losing that useful wedge?’
Great, at least it wasn’t a listicle…..
It might shock you to learn, oh great BW, that the greens are actually a completely different political party to the coalition…… I’m not even a greens and I couldn’t be bothered, so I’ll leave it at that
Been there – uComm has been around for awhile. It is Union owned.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-10/political-polling-company-ucomms-ties-to-unions-cfmmeu-and-actu/10945798
Do you have any links to Fadden? Did you live on the Gold Coast or buy your phone on the Gold Coast?
Five out of the last seven Australian Prime Ministers from NSW, and all pushed terribly irresponsible policies.
I think we need a change next time.
Oh Gods, the usual suspects coming in here with nothing to add to the China discussion except for DLP references which were irrelevant 30 years ago. Night all, I’ve no interest on still being here when we’re past closing and they get really stuck into the personal abuse.
@Cronus:
“ Perhaps though the real issue is that this is considered internationally as disputed territory and not to be settled by anyone until a formal decision is made. There is no place for unilateral decisions in international law.”
____
So, perhaps NOT a good idea to send in the 7th Fleet hard up against the Chinese mainland whilst the fate of these disputed islands are being decided. No?
The Americans provoked this: they got the response they were angling for: all good & useful material for useful idiots to sign up to, and sign away our own national interest over.
Mavis 6:45
Thanks. I note your point re the surprise outcome on the Pell appeal.
I am not a lawyer but I note the following.
1. Presumably the HC won’t go over matters of fact, which includes the fact of the unlawful killings. A legal win that leaves that fact undisputed is not much of a win.
2. Besanko already seemed to separate the wheat from the chaff in dismissing the abuse claim, which is harder to prove.
3. The logic that once you are found to be a killer not much more damage can be done to your reputation makes sense to the common man.
4. This is not the same as Pell in that BRS brought on the action on ground of his own choosing. Nor are the events so old as to be forgotten, or involving child witnesses.
Here are the first three paragraphs of Paul Keating’s statement, in full:
“NATO’s continued existence after and at the end of the Cold War has already denied peaceful unity to the broader Europe, the promise of which the end of the Cold War held open.
And besides, the Europeans have been fighting each other for the better part of three hundred years, including giving the rest of us two World Wars in the last hundred.
Exporting that malicious poison to Asia would be akin to Asia welcoming the plague upon itself. With all of Asia’s recent development amid its long and latent poverty, that promise would be compromised by having anything to do with the militarism of Europe – and militarism egged on by the United States.”
https://johnmenadue.com/natos-provocative-lurch-eastward-and-the-supreme-fool-jens-stoltenberg/
Taking each paragraph in turn:
1. PJK thinks NATO is to blame for Russia’s post-1991 neo-imperialist threat to the peace, security and sovereign independence of its neighbours: Moldova, Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine. If that is his genuine view, then speaking as a lover of Ukrainian culture and nationhood, I say he can join the likes of Gerhard Schröder in Hell (when they both get there) as far as I am concerned. NATO has never threatened the systematic, brutal murder and rape of Ukrainians, but (consciously non-Western) Russia has gone further than just threatening this. Does PJK really think he knows better than Finns, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, Romanians, Czechs and Slovaks (as well as the majority of the people of Hungary and Bulgaria) what the best defensive stance is for them in relation to aggression from Moscow? He has to be having a massive lend of us all with that ridiculous first paragraph. Kremlinism almost in its purest form.
2. PJK says this as if Europeans are unique in their warmongering among the continents of the globe since 1700. Ask the Koreans and Chinese about the Japanese. Ask the Tibetans about the Chinese. As for WW2 being started by (European) Germany, that is an ironically Eurocentric view given that Japan’s full scale invasion of China began in July 1937, more than two years earlier than the Blitzkrieg on Poland.
3. It follows that ‘militarism’ is hardly the ‘European poison’ that Asia would do well to avoid ingesting, as PJK asserts here. And for PJK to direct his ire at NATO is a sick joke, given that NATO has never seized any external territory by force, nor have any two NATO members ever attacked each other.
Andrew Earlwood
“ So, perhaps NOT a good idea to send in the 7th Fleet hard up against the Chinese mainland whilst the fate of these disputed islands are being decided. No?”
The distance from the nearest part of China (Hainan) to the Spratley Islands is over 1000 km. I think there is sailing room in between.
As for Keating, it could be argued that only a few claims he said were strictly false, but they were part of painting a word picture that was quite unrealistic IMO.
Evening all.
NATO Summit live-stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xM1bca4FeEw
There’s not much happening but the hashtags are interesting.
#NATO #NATOsummit #Vilnius #Lithuania #Ukraine #live #Reuters #News
The UK PM has turned up at the summit.
The live-stream cut away pretty quickly from PM Sunak.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 7:11 pm
@Cronus:
“ Perhaps though the real issue is that this is considered internationally as disputed territory and not to be settled by anyone until a formal decision is made. There is no place for unilateral decisions in international law.”
____
So, perhaps NOT a good idea to send in the 7th Fleet hard up against the Chinese mainland whilst the fate of these disputed islands are being decided. No?
The Americans provoked this: they got the response they were angling for: all good & useful material for useful idiots to sign up to, and sign away our own national interest over.
—————————————-
Given that fleets from any and every nation are entitled to sail there, the Americans are no less entitled than anyone else. They and anyone else are simply exercising internationally in accordance with United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Any contention to the contrary is simply ridiculous but I suspect you well realise this. Furthermore, the actions of the US are not unilateral as numerous other nations including Australia are sailing via this location.
E-A – you are projecting. And standing shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Hartcher, Patterson and Joyce. Take a shower. You’ll feel cleaner.
BRS determined to subsidise lawyers children’s school fees…
Roberts-Smith’s lawyers argue that Besanko “did not adequately deal with the improbability that there was a widespread conspiracy to conceal the truth concerning the deaths of [the two men at Whiskey 108] … in the official reporting of the mission”.
More like the improbability of claiming a conspiracy without providing ANY evidence of one.. he would get a better result if he deposited the money into my account.
B.S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 7:05 pm
Been there – uComm has been around for awhile. It is Union owned.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-10/political-polling-company-ucomms-ties-to-unions-cfmmeu-and-actu/10945798
Do you have any links to Fadden? Did you live on the Gold Coast or buy your phone on the Gold Coast?
========================================================
Sorry I didn’t get straight back B.S.
Watching a show on Netflix
No links to Fadden. Tried hard to find a connection.
Last time I was anywhere near Fadden was the Sunshine Coast over ten years ago.
No relos on the Gold Coast nor phones purchased there.
Bit of a mystery, probably entered the wrong number in the system.
Cronus: Now you are sounding like the diving dollies in soccer, who provoke a gentle shoulder shove and then carry on like a ruptured choir boy until the ref gives a penalty.
Of course the Americans are allowed to sail in international waters. The fact that they choose to do so by sending their fleet hard up against the Chinese 12 mile territorial limit is only calculated to provoke a response. Stop bleating like that ruptured choir boy.
Were I advising the ChiComms last decade when the Americans started these shenanigans I would have told them to size and militarise the islands whilst they still could, because they are perfect ‘Sea-denial’ assets. The Americans knew this as well. They even brag about what they have been up to, so its no ‘conspiracy theory’ on my part. Freedumbs was a Biden brainwave to let his old touring buddy that America was going to attempt to contain china, because of his quasi religious belief in American destiny, exceptionalism and all round superiority. We should have said ‘thanks’ but ‘no thanks’ back then, and then moved onto discussion the future of the American spy bases in northern australia. Unfortunately went went the other way.
Socrates @ #989 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 5:26 pm
A sensible, thoughtful and rational comment, Soc. I concur wholeheartedly.
Trivia: the centre of Vilnius is just a 45 minute drive ~35 km from the Belarus border.
‘Modern war’ is more likely than not to be asymetrical and also to involve non-state actors.
Heads of State are taking turns addressing the media at the NATO summit. Worth going to the live-stream if NATO or Ukraine is of interest.
Ukraine within NATO is the “landing zone”.
Earlwood
If you expect me to respond in kind you’ll be sadly disappointed.
You’re looking for an argument for the sake of an argument and unlike others I won’t be wasting my time and certainly not dropping to your level of engagement.
Enough Already @ #1032 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 7:17 pm
Thank you also, Enough Already for this thoughtful, fact-based refutation of Paul Keating’s non-sense.
I’ll be over here in the corner waiting for Andrew-Earlwood to refute this with genuine facts and evidence and not spittle-flecked purple prose and abuse in defense of his political amour.
Oh well. I guess it’s arrivals again. (live-streaming the NATO summit)
Late Riser @ #1046 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 7:43 pm
I listened to the BBC’s Europe expert in the radio just now and she explained it all very succinctly and sensibly. Basically, Ukraine can be NATO-adjacent for now but they cannot be accepted into NATO for to do so would mean that a NATO Member country was being attacked and thus NATO would have to become directly involved as a result. Something they don’t want ie WW3. So they will have to wait until the war is over and then they will be fast-tracked.