Less than a week to go until the Fadden by-election, though I’m afraid there’s no specific news of consequence to relate concerning it. Last week I suggested that Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and a Resolve Strategic poll might be imminent, which still holds a week later. We should also be seeing proposed new state electoral boundaries for Western Australia at some point over the coming fortnight. Other than that:
• Victoria’s long-awaited Warrandyte by-election has been set for August 26. Labor sources cited by Rachel Baxendale of The Australian say the party is “highly unlikely to run”, although The Age reports Labor MPs are “privately pressuring the party to contest”, backed by “a fair bit of pressure coming from the branches”.
• The Financial Review has published further results from this week’s Queensland state poll from Freshwater Strategy showing 50% opposition to the Indigenous Voice with only 36% in support and 14% undecided, breaking out to 58-42 with the latter excluded. The results in Brisbane were 40% supportive and 47% opposed, compared with 31% and 53% in the rest of the state.
• Right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has been dumped from the Liberal National Party’s ticket for the next election after a vote at the party’s state conference, despite backing from Peter Dutton. His third position, which did not avail Amanda Stoker when she held it at last year’s election, will instead go to Stuart Fraser, who reportedly won the final round of the vote by 134 to 131. Fraser is the LNP’s treasurer and director of a private investment fund, also noted for his involvement with the Tattersalls Club and the Catholic Archdiocese of Brisbane. The Guardian reports Fraser survived the final exclusion by four votes ahead of Nelson Savanh of strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander, then narrowly prevailed as moderate support coalesced behind him. Another contestant for the position, Sophia Li, a former adviser to Shadow Defence Industry Minister Luke Howarth, takes the fourth position, while former state Hinchinbrook MP and Newman government minister Andrew Cripps is fifth.
• Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of Matt Kean, senior minister in the recently ousted state government and noted factional moderate, running at the next federal election in Bradfield should Paul Fletcher choose to retire, or alternatively against teal independent Kylea Tink in North Sydney. Dominic Perrottet was said to be resisting overtures to run in North Sydney or challenge Alex Hawke for preselection in Mitchell, and was likely to quit politics. There was “no indication” Gladys Berejiklian or Mike Baird might run, despite reported urgings from senior Liberals. Berowra MP Julian Leeser might be challenged by conservatives displeased with his support for the Indigenous Voice, but was “likely to survive”. Such questions may be settled later rather than sooner after a vote for the party’s state presidency was won by former Mackellar MP Jason Falinski, who is reportedly dubious about Peter Dutton’s determination to have all candidates preselected by October.
Roberts-Smith will appeal the decision of Besanko, J.
Oliver: “Not too crash hot on the geography there, Jase.”
It’s SE QLD. It’s not that far away. It sounds like you haven’t been there.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 1:04 pm
Holdenhillbilly @ #862 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 10:49 am
Kevin Bonham:
#Essential federal raw primaries (not comparable to other pollsters because including undecided reduces major party primaries)
ALP 32 L-NP 32 Green 14 ON 8 UAP 1 others 8 undecided 5.
Their ‘2PP+’ 52-42 to ALP (=55.3 2PP, unchanged).
My last-election prefs 2PP 54.3 (-1.2)
Wow.
ALP 32%
L/NP 32%
Crossbench 31%
****************
Any analysis that treats the Greens and One Nation as the same is deeply flawed and unlikely to be particularly useful.
Much like your other posts.
Netflix has a quite good program about AI and what is good and potentially bad about it. “Unknown: Killer Robots”.
Roberts-Smith’s appeal will in only serve to delay the inevitable.
Ballantyne says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 2:47 pm
Keating as quoted by the Guardian two days ago:
Keating said “Europeans have been fighting each other for the better part of three hundred years” and warned that “exporting that malicious poison to Asia would be akin to Asia welcoming a plague upon itself”.
Of course, there have been no intra-Asian conflicts ever. In the last three hundred years or even before any European influence. Yeah, right. No Mughal invasion? No Sino-Japanese war? He should stick to Zegna suits and French clocks.
———————————-
Not to mention that China, in contravention of international law, has recently taken and militarised atolls disputed by the Phillipines, Vietnam and Taiwan, all Asian.
Pi says:
Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 3:20 pm
Oliver: “Not too crash hot on the geography there, Jase.”
It’s SE QLD. It’s not that far away. It sounds like you haven’t been there.
—————-
Not forgetting that Dutton previously tried to ditch Dickson for the Gold Coast seat of McPherson.
Official PRC statistics for Chinese casualties of (fellow Asian nation) Japan’s invasion in 1937-1945: 20 million dead, 15 million wounded.
First Opium War (1839-1843), against UK: est. 3,100 killed, 4,000 wounded.
Second Opium War (1856-1860), against UK, France, USA: est. 2,100-2,800 killed and wounded.
Sino-French War (1884-1885): est. 10,000 killed, unknown wounded.
Boxer Rebellion (1899-1901), involving the 8-nation alliance (UK, Russia, Japan, France, Germnay, USA, Italy, Austria-Hungary): est 100,000 killed, mostly Chinese. (Complicated picture of European and Asian combatants on the anti-Boxer side.)
In summary:
Chinese killed by Europeans in wars over the last 200 years: about 115,000.
Chinese killed by Japanese in WW2 alone: about 20,000,000.
WTF is PJK on about?
Some(many) bogans retire from Dickson to the Gold Coast, which is all the stranger, because Dickson has some of the most beautiful places to live. Its bushland is wild, and it’s so close to the city. We have good family that live there. But that connection is real. Generational connections.
“In 1956, a private Filipino citizen, Tomás Cloma, unilaterally declared a state on 53 features in the South China Sea, calling it “Freedomland”. In December 1974, Cloma was arrested and forced to sign a document to convey to the Philippines whatever rights he might have had in the territory for one peso.
Cloma sold his claim to the Philippine government, which annexed (de jure) the islands in 1978, calling them Kalayaan.
On 11 June 1978, President Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines issued Presidential decree No. 1596, declaring the Spratly Islands (referred to therein as the Kalayaan Island Group) as Philippine territory.
”
If wiki has this right, then well personally I’m stunned that China was not convinced by this.
Estimated Chinese casualties (killed, missing and wounded) in the Chinese Civil War between Mao’s Communists and Chiang Kai-Shek’s Kuomintang (concluding phase, 1945-1949):
Combatants: about 3 million
Civilians: about 3-4 million
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War
Again, where is PJK coming from, with his attempt to portray China as historically an otherwise peaceful country unless stirred up by Western ‘provocation’?
EA? I’d suggest learning about that conflict before opining on it. Chinese history is big and complex. There are no good guys and bad guys in that conflict with analogues that apply easily to modern contexts. “China” as we know it, didn’t exist then. The same could be said of 40 years ago.
Estimated Chinese deaths from the Great Leap Forward-induced famines and other assorted repression, self-inflicted by its own Communist Government (and no Western government):
15-55 million.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward#Deaths_by_famine
If PJK wants to find the causes of the vast bulk of deadly threats to the Chinese people over ‘the past three hundred years’, he needs to look at lot closer to them than at NATO.
Pi @ Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 4:01 pm:
“EA? I’d suggest learning about that conflict before opining on it. Chinese history is big and complex. There are no good guys and bad guys in that conflict with analogues that apply easily to modern contexts.”
============
Pi, I’m not ‘picking a side’ in the Chinese Civil War, just pointing out, contra PJK, that China has a very bloody history, much of it unrelated to anything Europe or the West has done to it – which is plenty, I don’t deny.
The opium trade, which with slavery, forms the basis of much of the wealth of the western world, is a dark stain on our history. Pointing fingers in this conflict is hard. There are no “good guys”.
If I could recommend a book, it would be “Year 501” by Chomsky. That’ll set ya straight.
The Essential Poll splits close to one third each for Labor, Coalition and “None of the Above”. That is not too different from the results at last year’s Federal election. I would suggest that the reported Green vote at 14%, is a bit high. Accepting the 14%, those choosing “None of the above” would split about 50% left, 30% Ratbag Right and the remaining 20% Centrist / single issue.
To misquote Groucho Marx … I think Australia should refuse to join any club that would have it as a member …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-11/why-has-australia-signed-up-to-the-climate-club/102586404
I don’t for a moment believe we are about to implement either a carbon tax or carbon tariffs, so I don’t understand why we have joined. I expect it is so that we are “inside the tent” where we might be able to soften or even derail policies such as the EUs proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which is designed to disadvantage recalcitrant countries like Australia.
Keating is making the point that modern warfare originated in Europe. In the 17th century this culminated in the development of the Westphalian system of states, which were essentially at constant war with each other until the invention of the bomb, when it was replaced with permanent nuclear confrontation between military blocs.
Asia was not without war during this period, but it did not develop along the same lines of European style nation-states engaged in accelerating technological rivalry. Modern warfare took root in Asia when Meiji Japan deliberately undertook to model itself as a European-style state in the 19th century, and create a colonial empire in imitation of the European powers. Until it was met with the bomb.
There is now a deliberate effort underway to recreate a NATO-type regime of permanent confrontation in Asia, a divide-and-conquer strategy by the White powers that fear the prospect of being overtaken by Asian cooperation and co-prosperity.
Keating knows a thing or two about the world, but obviously what he says goes way, way, way over the head of the average Aussie yobbo. He is operating on a completely different intellectual level from the bogan mediocrities that currently dominate Australian public life.
(Including Albanese currently embarrassing himself and Australia in Vilnius)
Enough Already
“Estimated Chinese casualties (killed, missing and wounded) in the Chinese Civil War between Mao’s Communists and Chiang Kai-Shek’s Kuomintang (concluding phase, 1945-1949):
Combatants: about 3 million
Civilians: about 3-4 million”
This is one of many examples of bloody Chinese internal conflicts. Throughout recorded history the challenge has been to keep China together as a stable country. Civil wars with death tolls in the millions are a recurring feature going back as far as the Han Dynasty (Roman times). Entire eras of Chinese history (e.g. Warring States period) were defined by the inability to establish a single State and constant wars between warlords or smaller kingdoms for control.
Past history does not guarantee more of the same in the future, and you could say the same about war and conflicts in the past of every continent. Nevertheless, Keating’s view of Chinese history is plain wrong.
So too the view that the west caused all of modern China’s problems is false. The worst aspects of 19th century Chinese weakness were self inflicted (rebellions). The west took advantage of it, but did not cause it. Japan was the guilty party in the 20th century.
Does anyone have a link to the full text of Keating’s statement, it isn’t on his website yet.
Re Player One @4:25. I don’t for a moment believe we are about to implement either a carbon tax or carbon tariffs, so I don’t understand why we have joined. I expect it is so that we are “inside the tent”…
…and that’s where you lose me.
Certainly the Albanese Government wants us in the tent, where we can be privy to discussions, have our say and possibly influence decisions. It may even influence future Australian Governments not to return to a spoiler role in international efforts. Hopefully Labor stays in power long enough that this would no longer be doable.
Summary of party positions:
– Coalition: do nothing, act as spoiler
– Labor: act in line with most OECD parters
– Greens: act alone and storm the ramparts. Irrelevant since they can’t win Government.
The Greens have no influence on climate policy or anything else when the Coalition is in power. They could have influence when Labor is in power if they didn’t insist on their way or the highway (to nowhere).
“Labor: act in line with most OECD parters”
Is there a source for this?
The CCP could have had a peaceful rise, but it chose not to.
@steve777
Surely the greens and independents had a good deal of influence on both the climate target bill and particularly the safeguards mechanism, both are immeasurably better for it!
No where in Keating’s statement does he claim – either directly – or by implication – that Asia has been peaceful for the last 300 years. In fact he compares the west’s 300 years of turmoil with “ all of Asia’s recent development amid its long and latent poverty”.
So the conga-line of piss-ant bludgers lining up this afternoon to tee off against an Australian giant should all collectively give themselves an upper cut.
This is Keating’s complete statement for the record:
https://johnmenadue.com/natos-provocative-lurch-eastward-and-the-supreme-fool-jens-stoltenberg/
His statement actually only overreached in this one sentence:
“ And has no record of attacking other states, unlike the United States, whose bidding Stoltenberg is happy to do.”
If THAT sentence actually read:
“And has no recent record of attacking other states in the 21st century, unlike the United States, whose bidding Stoltenberg is happy to do”
Then there would be no overreach at all.
Now I’m sure that The Boer will blow the trumpet over some half pissed firefight on the Sino-Indian border in recent times, but that is simply of no account. Nor is grabbing the disputed and unoccupied islands in the South China Sea (even though that may be wrong according to UNCLOS 3 – which China has never recognised, and otherwise pretty indefensible – which it is I reckon).
Beware bludgers. When you join the pile on you stand shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Peter Hartcher, the rest of the 9-Faix filth and the likes of James Patterson and Barnaby Joyce.That really should give y’all some pause. … surely. You are all being manipulated by the present sinophobic propaganda model being peddled to suit Washington’s interests.
Steve777 @ #971 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 4:48 pm
And that’s where you lose me. The obsession Labor people have with the Greens is what makes this place so tedious sometimes. It is the joint COALition/Labor policies that are at fault. Nothing to do with the Greens. We cannot be a serious member of the Climate Club with our current policies. If you believe our joining the club is a precursor to us implementing better policies, then fine. My point was that I don’t think that was the reason we joined.
Watermelon, forgive me for not thinking a Putinbot’s idea of intellectual brilliance is worth anything.
Keating has enough knowledge to do galaxy brain sophistry to support his pre decided outcomes. He needs to gloss over so much stuff to get there even AE has noticed, though.
Australian investors were the most bearish on equities and property in at least four years, yanking $2.8 billion from fund managers in the second quarter amid concerns about a global recession.
Equities accounted for $1.65 billion of the net outflows between April and June with $1.2 billion pulled from actively managed funds, according to data compiled by global funds network, Calastone. It was the worst three-month performance for managed funds since the series began in January 2019.
A net $544 million was pulled from mixed asset funds and $173 million from property.
“Global equity funds have borne the brunt of outflows as investors are losing confidence in the prospects for the global economy,” said managing director of Calastone’s Australia and New Zealand division, Teresa Walker.
Investors pulled a net $1.55 billion from funds invested in global equities, while Australian equity funds recorded $59 million in net outflows.
Investor sentiment has soured on risk assets as the world’s major central banks engaged in aggressive monetary tightening to stamp out sticky inflation, raising the spectre of a global recession. The Reserve Bank of Australia has added 4 percentage points since May last year.
Weaker than expected inflation data from China this week has also fulled concerns the world’s second-largest economy is at risk of deflation. While strong US employment data has added to concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
As a result, investors are shifting money into fixed income funds, which saw $582 million of net inflows in the second quarter, along with cash.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/investors-yank-money-from-equities-on-recession-fears-20230711-p5dnaw
keating hass been pro china for a long time in 2019 he caused contraversy when he undermind shortins campaign claiming labor should head the head of the security agentsies including asio for warning politicians to stay away from chinease billionairs has regularly argued china has toe right to egzist and the west should stop interfearing in 2008 he wanted to sell them nsw electrisity under iemma
Cronus
Not to mention that China, in contravention of international law, has recently taken and militarised atolls disputed by the Phillipines, Vietnam and Taiwan, all Asian.
This is what Watermelon calls “Asian cooperation and co-prosperity.” It is such a beautiful thing. Just ask the CCP.
Is Paul Keating – who used to be a hero of the Labor Right – too “leftie” for modern Labor?
How amusing.
then again keating is no diferent to the former member for israil michael danby who seemed moore interested in silentsing any critercizm of israils crimes and deplatforming pro palistinians then representing melberne ports no wonder he spent 2 decades on the back bench the only time he was a parliamentary secretary in the last dayss of gilard he went to jerminy andin arts role and desided t o lecther them over wold war two i know israil is very pashinet for him but whiy does fredom of speech only work one way
The self-claimed ‘progressives’ were all for the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
Q: Official PRC statistics for Chinese casualties
No one has even mentioned potentially the most deadly event, the Taiping Rebellion 1850-1864, the bloodiest Civil War in history that killed between 20-30 million!
Maybe its conveniently forgotten as it was lead by the self declared brother of Jesus!
Some more shallow understanding from Aaron of what Keating was saying. No surprises there.
Further, I don’t think he ever advocated selling electricity assets to the Chinese – in 2008 or otherwise.
We should be skeptical of what ‘the spooks’ are saying. They are very happy to bang the ‘China boo!’ Drum because it gives them bigger budgets and more stupid powers – with less and less transparency: what’s not to love about THAT if you are a spook? Also, the private school crypto tory culture lurks deep in their ranks (just like in the ADF). We should not delude ourselves otherwise.
Torchbearer: “No one has even mentioned potentially the most deadly event, the Taiping Rebellion 1850-1864”
?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/09/weekend-miscellany-by-elections-voice-polling-gerard-rennicks-preselection-defeat-open-thread/comment-page-19/#comment-4133119
Torchbearer: “conveniently forgotten ”
err….
“ then again keating is no diferent to the former member for israil michael danby”
Give yourself another uppercut Aaron.
As she often does, Rachel Withers nails it:
“The Climate Club is supposedly about high-ambition nations encouraging one another to do better, “voluntarily set
high targets for curbing climate change and then requir
trading partners to meet those same standards”. But Australia’s inclusion raises questions about the rules of Climate Club, and whether the first rule may in fact be that you do not talk about climate change – at least not in any meaningful way. ”
https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2023/07/11/trite-club?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Politics%20%20Tuesday%2011%20July%202023&utm_content=The%20Politics%20%20Tuesday%2011%20July%202023+CID_da1323007edf76d906fe87fc9320eea3&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=Read%20on%20free&cid=da1323007edf76d906fe87fc9320eea3
Political policies and ideology are party specific. Historical facts are neutral.
I am not Sino-phobic nor a Keating hater. I don’t think China is any more or less warlike than other countries its size. From my reading of history Russia has been more often an external aggressor. Nevertheless at times in the past China has started foreign wars of aggression.
I started studying economics when Keating was Treasurer and was partly inspired by him (and some friends) to join the Labor Party in 1990. I got to hear Hawke and Keating speak in their prime. I have always regarded Keating as intelligent, articulate, and a communicator of economic policy second to none. But he has never been a foreign policy expert comparable to say Rudd or Gareth Evans.
Keating’s view of China is short-sighted, designed to justify an economically expedient position in the present. It is obviously not based on any deep understanding of Chinese history.
I read a few books on China to try to get a better understanding of it during the period it looked like Australia’s relationship with China would be peaceful and they would be our main trading partner. My attitude to China changed after Xi Jinping took power and changed policy.
I don’t support antagonising China, which the Liberals did. But I don’t support foreign policy based on wishful thinking either. Xi is a dictator who is likely to use power to get his way. We need a stronger military focused on maritime self defence and better regional alliances. I am fine with Labor doing that. I am not fine with Keating undermining the government.
“This is Keating’s complete statement for the record:
https://johnmenadue.com/natos-provocative-lurch-eastward-and-the-supreme-fool-jens-stoltenberg/”
Thanks AE, I’m shocked, just shocked how badly it was misrepresented.
China’s non existent wars included Tibet. Casualties made the Russian invasion of Ukraine look like a sideshow: 600,000 killed.
Soc, word.
Pi
Thanks for correcting me- the one small part of the thread I missed!!! 🙂
After 35 years of the Coalition/Greens dicking Australia on CC we have 43/30.
And don’t the Coalition/Greens hate losing that useful wedge?
WeWantPaul @ #996 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 5:27 pm
I’m not.
The Han have killed more people in war than any other ethnic group: discuss.
Thanks Pi. I should have given Penny Wong an honourable mention on foreign policy too.
Mavis
“Roberts-Smith’s appeal will in only serve to delay the inevitable.”
There has never been a better time to be a lawyer. I predict Morrison and Roberts will also be generous to their profession over years to come.
The Han are the most ethnically diverse and dispersed people on earth. Discuss.
Boerwar @ #996 Tuesday, July 11th, 2023 – 5:33 pm
Boerwar is terrified of the chinese: discuss.
Essential result are interesting and combined with the other results it is showing a small move away from the government but not towards the opposition. The 12 month itch does seem to suggest that the honeymoon phase is over – this doesn’t mean the marriage is over, just the excuse of the previous government fault is wearing a little thin.
The essential Voice polling brings it into line with the other polling companies. Some within the government can see this not going to be “the winner” others said it would be – by this I mean there were people talking at the beginning about it being a 75%-80% slam dunk nation unifying vote and clearly it is not going to be like that.