It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.
Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.
The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.
zoomster @ #38 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 8:13 am
As a kid I used to think cricketers and AFL football players were so old and wise. The scales have fallen from my eyes.
Taylormade @ #51 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 9:00 am
You don’t get it, do you? The Voice will be there so that politicians NO LONGER are the ones making all the decisions without any input from Indigenous Australians themselves.
Oliver Sutton @ #17 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 7:19 am
The Roundhouse! We were making a mess of ourselves, and the Roundhouse, at Bacchus Balls in the 60s, delinquents in sandals dressed up in sheets with camellia leaves in our hair.
LOL Taylormade
Bit of a snap there zoomster. Hope all well down there.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/04/russia-ukraine-drones-moscow-vnukovo-airport
frednk @ #22 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 7:32 am
Can the Greens pull off a stunt that sees them as both far left and centre right at the same time? Lib Dem Greens party?
I actually think that this is exactly what they are trying to achieve through their policies that appeal to inner city residents. Now I’m from the country, and i can state with great authority that you never want to straddle an electric fence, so lets see if the Greens have very very long legs on this political approach.
XTC and UK Squeeze at The Roundhouse. Fantastic venue. 🙂
Thank you to Dr Doolittle for last night references to Koowarta and Wilson.
A couple of entertaining articles in The Guardian by women on the MCC (and Sunak). Jolly good I say old chap.
Itza, sounds like a Toga party. Well, hello Alan
#weatheronPB
The wet world glistens,
refreshed and eager to shine.
The spring has been set.
Mostly Interested: “Now I’m from the country, and i can state with great authority that you never want to straddle an electric fence …”
You are Joh Bjelke-Petersen, and I claim my five pounds!
Mostly Interested: “Can the Greens pull off a stunt that sees them as both far left and centre right at the same time?”
Can Labor pull off a stunt that sees them as both pro coal and pro climate at the same time?
WTF? Roundhouse UNSW? Man. You boomers really did get it good. The best band we got there was INXS – yawn. The Whitlams at the bar was better.
My reference was to London’s Roundhouse.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-05/china-tells-australia-stop-harbouring-fugitives-hong-kong/102562300
Ok, if they give us back Harold Holt we can talk!
Seriously, talk about bully boy tactics. Do they really expect us to hand over people for political reasons?
Oliver Sutton @ #63 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 9:27 am
Whilst this made me laugh I don’t even know what this means. Did Joh once say the same thing? I never took the dare to piss on an electric fence, but one kid I k new in school did this as his crowd pleaser trick all the time. I think he now works at the local petrol station.
Oliver Sutton @ #64 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 9:29 am
Very ‘Green’ sentence construction there. 😐
Enough Already says:
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 8:20 am
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 8:14 am:
[me] C@tmomma, I still find it hard to believe he’s still around. Israelis must like what they see in him.
——-
No, not particularly. However, he has crafted a Coalition government with the Settler Movement MPs and the Russian Jews who emigrated to Israel after a serious issue with Anti Semitism there (tell me where the ‘Nazis’ are again, Putin? ).
He only barely squeaked back into power after he promised the Ultra Orthodox that they wouldn’t have to be conscripted into the Army to do National Service, like every other Israeli. It was enough.
===========
C@t, thanks for that context: Bibi dividing and conquering a fragmented electorate to eke out one more turn in the Big Chair. I’m trying to recall Naftali Bennett’s approach from last year, to see which way Israel might develop once they decide for a third time Netanyahu is not suitable PM material. Palestinian lives, homes and livelihoods clearly depend on it a great deal.
========================
Except that part of that context is just another of the usual catmomma alternative facts. The current Israeli Government consists of six parties, Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Religious Zionist Party, Otzma Yehudit, and Noam. The party that most Russian Jews vote for is Yisrael Beiteinu, a right-wing party led by Avigdor Lieberman, who is one of Netanyahu’s most vocal critics and is currently part of the opposition.
Speaking of getting older –
Jill Dupleix, partnered with Terry Durack, best food critics in town – smart, know their stuff, and very witty.
https://www.smh.com.au/goodfood/tips-and-advice/from-fioretto-to-monaka-your-go-to-guide-on-how-to-read-a-modern-menu-20230626-p5djkk.html
Here’s one:
We were corralled into a posh lunch recently for a colleague’s 85th! At least I wasn’t the oldest one there. The pesto was made at the table.
Here she is – very funny, few drinks, kinda maybe. Her hot oven baked smashed cooked potatoes are brilliant – I use some semidried oregano. OH *loves* them.
https://youtu.be/2PQTPqoTA_U
Just as well.
Actually, now I switch brain to on, UNSW roundhouse wouldn’t have been built at that time.
Enough silly side talk. Topic de jour: Queensland. Labor had had a good run, for Qld. Always was a problem, always will be. Population distribution, and all that sun. Wonder how UpNorth is faring? Hellooooo.
I went to a Bacchus Ball once at NSW Uni version of the Roundhouse.
The food fight with chicken was gross.
Andrew Gold @ #70 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 9:46 am
I was waiting for you to turn up to straighten me out. 😆
I must admit I had him confused with this Avigdor Lieberman:
Israel’s foreign minister (2009–12; 2013–15) and defense minister (2016–18).
In 1988 he moved with his wife to the Jewish West Bank settlement of Nokdim. That same year he allied himself with Israeli politician Benjamin Netanyahu, and in 1993 he masterminded Netanyahu’s successful campaign for the Likud party leadership. When Netanyahu first became prime minister three years later, he appointed Lieberman director general of the prime minister’s office.
In the run-up to the 2009 election, Lieberman sharpened his questions about Israel’s Palestinian minority, expressing doubts about their loyalty to the Jewish state and threatening to make their right to citizenship dependent on an oath of allegiance. In the election, held on February 10, 2009, Yisrael Beiteinu secured 15 seats in the Knesset, and it joined a Likud-led coalition government with Netanyahu as prime minister. On March 31 Lieberman was sworn in as foreign minister. The next day he renounced Israel’s commitment to the Annapolis process. In May 2009 Yisrael Beiteinu introduced a citizenship law and other legislation perceived as discriminatory against Palestinian citizens of Israel, none of which was passed.
Soon after taking over as foreign minister, Lieberman was interrogated by police on suspicion of money laundering, bribery, and obstructing justice in a scandal that threatened to end his controversial political career. In August 2009 Lieberman announced that he would step down from all his government posts if indicted on charges of corruption. He resigned from his posts as foreign minister and deputy prime minister in December 2012, after he was indicted for fraud and breach of public trust. He was acquitted of all charges in November 2013 and returned to his position as foreign minister the same month. He occupied the post until May 2015, when Yisrael Beiteinu opted not to join the governing coalition led by Netanyahu.
In May 2016 Yisrael Beiteinu agreed to join Netanyahu’s coalition. As part of the agreement, Lieberman took over the position of minister of defense. The appointment dismayed centrists, who worried that Lieberman’s bellicose statements and outspoken opposition to pursuing peace with the Palestinians would harm Israeli diplomacy. In late 2018 he resigned from his post after Netanyahu agreed to reinstate a cease-fire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, just one day after the most intense cross-border skirmishes in years had broken out.
Early elections were held in April 2019, and, with narrow coalition prospects, Lieberman stood as kingmaker. Negotiations to form a coalition remained at an impasse, however, as Lieberman insisted on ending conscription exemptions for the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews. No compromise was reached, and new elections were set for September.
Lieberman again found himself playing the role of kingmaker after elections were held in September. He insisted, however, that he would only support a unity government that included both Netanyahu’s Likud and its main challenger, the Blue and White list, which would be the only possible coalition that would not depend on the support of either the religious right or of Palestinian citizens of Israel. When no such government could be formed, a new election was held in March 2020, and Lieberman gave tacit support to Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to form a government. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, Gantz chose to form an emergency unity government under Netanyahu; Lieberman sat out of that government.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Avigdor-Lieberman
Mea culpa, though. It IS difficult to keep up with the political twists and turns of that man. 😐
‘Ocean temperatures around Australia last month were the hottest for any June on record …’
O goody, poorlean will do another photo shoot at a small patch of unbleached coral in 3,2,1…
Oh dear.
He added there had also been a lot of regeneration in parts of the state that had previously burnt in the Black Summer bushfires, elevating dangers along NSW’s South Coast. Parts of Sydney and Newcastle could also experience elevated fire risk this coming summer.
“This will set us up for a very serious fire season,” he said. “Will it be [another] Black Summer? No, because we have moisture in the ground to keep the tree canopies fairly green, but it could get serious. We are in uncharted territory.”
“I am not a betting man, but if I were, I would say I bet we will see big fires this year.”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/uncharted-territory-un-declares-el-nino-as-records-near-20230703-p5dlb3.html
Team Katich @ Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 9:46 am
I’m reliably informed that the UNSW roundhouse was completed in 1961.
I saw Rik Mayall and Ben Elton there in 85 or 86, that was probably the most memorable thing.
Although I recall there were also many posters at UNSW back in those days that would periodically announce “The Return of Dr Feelgood”. As Wendy Harmer once remarked “Oh look, Dr Feelgood is back. Have they ever been away?”
Dr Feelgood were by that time composed of the lead singer Lee Brilleaux and no other original members, if memory serves. I understand they are still going, in spite of Brilleaux’s death in 1994.
One of those “Ship of Theseus” bands.
Two items from Ukrainska Pravda on the risk of Russian sabotage at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant:
“President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in a telephone conversation with French leader Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday evening. Zelenskyy noted that he warned Macron about “the preparation of dangerous provocations by the occupation forces at the Zaporizhzhia NPP,” and added that he agreed to keep the situation “under maximum control together with the IAEA.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/4/7409862/
“President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Russia that the world sees what scenarios the terrorists are preparing for at the Zaporizhzhia NPP and is ready to react.
[Zelenskyy, nightly evening address:] “Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian troops have placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant. Perhaps they have some other scenario. But in any case, the world sees – can’t help but see – that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is Russia and no one else.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/4/7409863/
C@tmomma @ #76 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 10:14 am
There will be much more environmental science educated people than me on here, so they can correct anything I get wrong.
I’d expect the fires to hit in the 2nd or 3rd year of the El Niño once the ground moisture has dissipated. Not to say there wont be fires this summer, but during drier period the surface fuel increases as plants switch to their various drought adaptions.
A lot of the growth taken during the wetter La Niña tends to drop off (in some species and this is not a blanket adaption). Australian plants have a neat dormancy and rapid growth cycle, but the dormancy cycle can see a lot more organic litter produced as they attempt to reduce water loss. Eucalyptus (Gum trees) and Acacia (Wattles) species tend to do this more. Melaleuca (paper barks included) can shed their bark during drought stress. Banksias tend to shed their old flowers during drought. I didnt know this but the lifecycle of the Banksia includes total death in fires to trigger seed growth. I learnt this lst bit from a ranger we met on the Yuraygir Coastal Walk up near Yamba in just after the 2019/20 fires.
Pueo says:
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 8:44 am
Why a Sydney private girls’ school had to hastily redesign its garden
00000000000000000000000
00
Has to be one of the better laughs of the cold Melbourne morning
C@tmomma @ #77 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 10:14 am
C@t, you need a machete to get through a lot of the regrowth here. Literally. It burnt, then rained for three years. At the moment, it looks glorious. A lot of it is wattle (‘Nurse Plant’), which is in full bloom, dense tracts of yellow on yellow. There is one section of the house block where the fire stopped, and there is a sharp line between “stuffed with wattle in full bloom’ and the previous thin rather scrappy understory. Classic.
I saw Dr Feelgood as the warm-up act for Madness at The Capitol Theatre. Loved both of them. But Madness just that little bit more. 🙂
Itza,
They’re doing back-burning in the National Park around here, so something’s catching fire.
Mostly Interested @ #80 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 10:33 am
Yes, too right. The indigenous banksias here are Spinulosa (Hairpin) and Serrata (Old Man). The Spinulosa, burnt to the ground, this year are spectacular, in full flower now. There’s an Old Man on the tank road which was decades old, still standing propped up against a gum tree it had fallen against, which was burnt to a cinder. It threw out some epicormic shoots (little green attempts) but they withered. Meanwhile, in the two metres ground around it, there would have been 20 seedling shoot up. I’ve transplanted some of them around about; they’re now about 1.5 metres, reaching for the sky.
Mostly Interested
It will only take a dry spring. The level of regrowth in the areas that burnt in 19/20 is scary. I’m glad that I don’t live in the bush any more.
C@tmomma @ #84 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 11:22 am
Oh, it’ll burn, don’t worry. They’re worried here. The 2019/2020 fires came from the South. Their efforts here now are directed at the Nth West – the ‘usual’ direction the fires came from, except there is no usual any more. I’ve had the grader here. People are worried.
outside left @ #61 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 9:19 am
Oh, that spoilt it! Have you ever seen him? Anger on two legs. Very damaged.
RP @ #86 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 11:25 am
Yeah it’s crazy up on the northern rivers area of NSW. We used to travel up and down that section of the state quite regularly over the years. But the last few trips were eye openers, after the fires you could travel for 10s of kms and only see burnt out forests. We then went through after the floods and we’d see fridges up in trees. Such a contrast.
Way too much from me. Thanks for forbearance. Off to town.
Sums things up quite nicely.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfcl41TCmxk
Just heard a Climate Scientist on the radio in the car and she said that it’s possible that, even with an El Nino declared that Australia may miss the worst of it, with the greater effects occurring closer to the equator and along the South American Pacific Coast.
Definitely feels like we are having a colder winter here in my part of world.
Taylormade @ #50 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 9:00 am
Sukkar!!!
Jane Hume demanding that Albo extend Philip Lowe’s term and going on about how he’s been unfairly treated is one of the more memorably insane things I’ve seen the federal Liberals do in a while. Even when they get a bit of an opening, they do so love to just blow it and make Labor’s life easier.
Rebecca:
Jane Hume should definitely keep saying that, in as many media outlets as possible. Dutton should join her. I reckon the average Australian really likes what Philip Lowe has doing lately and would feel a lot of sympathy for the poor man’s plight.
Rebecca says:
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 12:23 pm
Jane Hume demanding that Albo extend Philip Lowe’s term and going on about how he’s been unfairly treated is one of the more memorably insane things I’ve seen the federal Liberals do in a while. Even when they get a bit of an opening, they do so love to just blow it and make Labor’s life easier.
————————————
They’re experts in self-sabotage. Imagine being a fly on the wall in their strategy meetings, it’d be hilarious.
Victoria here’s the BOM’s June summary. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml
Hey Taylormade.
Check this out;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39yP4bbBUlA&ab_channel=KangarooCourtofAustralia
Do you reckon Lehrmann/Higginsgate will be a positive or negative for the Liberal Party?
Is the Liberal’s wommen problem better or worse in Victoria that the country as a whole?
Should Philip Lowe not attempted to get inflation under control?
Which is actually the RBA’s mandate.