It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.
Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.
The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.
China’s aggressive behavior is not limited to islands in the South China Sea. The eight democracy activists in Hong Kong who fled to Australia, UK and US (after peaceful protests) have now been branded as “fugutives” facing criminal charges.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-05/china-tells-australia-stop-harbouring-fugitives-hong-kong/102562300
You can see a high risk of China holding citizens of other countries as prisoners to create forced swaps for opponents of the regime who flee abroad.
Before Putin blows up the Zaporizhzhia reactor he should take into account prevailing wind direction… dominantly from the west!
Edit.
Reactor is downwind from Moscow
The only appropriate response for the Australian government to give to China’s demands here is the diplomatic equivalent of GAGF. There is no justification for handing over political dissidents to an authoritarian regime notorious for making such dissidents disappear.
The state with the last surviving Liberal government has the worst track record on FOI:
“The Environmental Defenders Office (EDO) on Wednesday released analysis showing Tasmania had the highest rate of FOI refusals, that its system was unacceptably slow in responding to requests, and made vast numbers of errors.
“The analysis shows Tasmanians are the most likely to have an FOI rejected of any jurisdiction. It also shows 70% of FOI refusals in Tasmania are later overturned after review by the ombudsman.”
(Guardian blog)
The ocean is definitely very warm
I was still catching Dolphiinfish (mahi mahi) 3 weeks ago, they’re normally long gone by now (season usually ends early May at the latest), even now out wide on the shelf the water temp is around 20 degrees, which is ridiculously warm for this time of year, and in closer it’s still around 19 degrees, whereas by July I’d normally expect to see it drop down to normal winter temp of about 16
Pretty scary stuff really, especially the potential impacts on fish migration patterns (for the pelagics) and distributions
Asha: “The only appropriate response for the Australian government to give to China’s demands here is the diplomatic equivalent of GAGF”
Qù cāo ba, if Google Translate can be trusted.
Not particularly diplomatic, I guess …
RP
Thanks for the link. I’m comparing this winter with the most recent winters. Last winter felt a lot warmer. Lol!
Vic Labor has been in power since nov 2014. I make that 8 and half years. Not ten years.
Sceptic @ Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 12:49 pm:
=====================
Sceptic, Red Square in Moscow is 940 km away from the furthest reactor in ZNPP, so Putin might fancy his chances of evading any health consequences to himself personally. However, I would not like to live in Belgorod, Kursk, Voronezh, Oryol or Lipetsk Oblasts in Russia.
Nevertheless, it is Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts in Ukraine which would be worst affected, and that may be all that matters to that homicidal maniac Putin.
Just me, I suppose, but I think the liberals use Jane Hume because of her looks. She seems to present as a nice, polite, safe sort of person. You’re meant to pick up on “Labor Bad!” & leave it at that, such a nice person must be right, mustn’t she?
Sceptic
“ Before Putin blows up the Zaporizhzhia reactor he should take into account prevailing wind direction… dominantly from the west!”
True but that still depends on where the wind is blowing at the time of any detonation. Russia controls that time. When Chernobyl blew the wind went toward the Baltic states.
Today’s assessment of the Ukrainian counteroffensive gives a wide-angle lens of some clarity:
“Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov reported on July 4 that Ukrainian forces are performing their main task of destroying Russian manpower, equipment, fuel depots, artillery, and air defenses and that a “war of destruction is equal to a war of kilometers.” Danilov’s assessment underlines the prioritization of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized maneuvers to regain large swaths of territory rapidly. NATO Military Committee Chair Admiral Bob Bauer reported on July 3 that Ukrainian forces are correct to proceed cautiously and avoid high casualties in the counteroffensive and acknowledged that the counteroffensive is difficult due to landmines and other obstacles up to 30km deep into Russian-occupied territory. Bauer stated that Ukrainian forces should not face criticism or pressure for moving slowly.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4-2023
Translation: NATO took too long deciding to supply assets for air support for Ukrainian ground advances, so rapid advances are off the table in the face of eight months of Russian defences being dug in.
nath @ #100 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 12:41 pm
Given that inflation is largely due to price gouging he should have left it for Labor to fix.
Hope Labor has funded them properly.
The El Nino is going to shine a light on Australia’s fossil fuel based economy. It will hurt Labor politically.
“Should Philip Lowe not attempted to get inflation under control?
Which is actually the RBA’s mandate.”
Lowe made at least two policy errors in the lead-up to the current inflation reduction actions – cutting rates while the government went overboard on fiscal stimulus, and not raising rates when inflation first appeared. In addition, the communication thing was shite. People get that.
“Given that inflation is largely due to price gouging he should have left it for Labor to fix.”
Jesus. I guess this is how the medicos on here feel when simple health ‘remedies’ are put forward as valid opinions.
The El Nino is going to shine a light on Australia’s fossil fuel based economy. It will hurt Labor politically.
I doubt it. Theres still plenty of climate sceptics and fossil fuel supporters around.
nath @ #100 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 12:41 pm
If he cared about that mandate he’d have started the rate hikes earlier and applied them at a more gradual pace.
It was obvious where the combination of covid lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, and nearly-free money was taking us. Like way back in 2019. But politically inconvenient to act on any of that, at least until it became apparent that the Coalition was politically cooked anyways.
At best, Lowe views the RBA’s mandate as a secondary priority.
a r says:
It was obvious where the combination of covid lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, and nearly-free money was taking us. Like way back in 2019. But politically inconvenient to act on any of that, at least until it became apparent that the Coalition was politically cooked anyways.
___________
Ah OK. The RBA should have raised interest rates when inflation was below 2%. Yeah.
Peak stooge has been reached when it comes to the RBA.
the stooges think higher interest rates is going to hurt the government, well it won’t hurt more than rampaging inflation. That’s for sure.
She’s dead right.
Labor can’t bullshit their way out of this any longer.
Not that I think Lowe neccessarily deserves to be reappointed. He’s made some poor statements. But I highly doubt that his decisions are politically based. Labor partisans just don’t like him because he’s a LNP appointment. But he was appointed as a Deputy Governor by Labor in 2012, so what about that?
I’m surprised someone hasn’t accused him of being a Pentecostal. Which the GG was also accused of being by a prominent stooge, until it was revealed he was just a run of the mill Presbyterian.
Longer Nath:
Question: “Interest rates should have been raised earlier and the rate increases stopped sooner”. What is your opinion?
Answer: “stooge, sneer, whatever is contrary to a view expressed by someone who supports what the government is doing (aka, a stooge).”
Question: “What about the issue of interest rates?”
Answer: “Well, whatever the stooges say I disagree because they are stooges. See, if I say the word stooge often enough everyone will regard me as a deep thinker!”
“Not that I think Lowe neccessarily deserves to be reappointed. He’s made some poor statements. But I highly doubt that his decisions are politically based. ”
On this we agree. I’d choose not to reappoint him because he’s not been very good at his job.
Paul the Avenger. 1961? Well there you go. It felt newish in the early 90s to this country lad. But yeah, there were a lot of 60’s architecture around campus.
I have noted the demise of the Village Green. Some good memories there. Faced Henry in the nets when I was a scared little (weird) 18yo. He was at the end of his international career and no doubt just rolling his arm over but it was no less intimidating.
The RBA should understand that inflation is a lagging indicator. Should understand the underlying factors that contribute to it. Should be watching those factors and prepared to act before they’ve had a chance to send inflation to the moon. Should be able to make inferences and be proactive instead of reactive.
Should be doing the same thing on the back end too, and prepared to stop the hikes or even start cutting rates before inflation actually returns to the target range.
Sure it will. No rate hikes and rampaging inflation is awesome for anyone who availed themselves of the near-decade of almost-free money. The real value of their debt has decreased. The value of the assets they bought with it has stayed the same. If their wage growth stays in the same ballpark as inflation, they’re strictly better off. It’s practically wealth transfer from the already-wealthy rent-seeking debt-owner cohort to everyone else. Or at least to the subset of “everyone else” that holds a mortgage or other large debt.
nath, Lowe was heard muttering ‘We lost’ in May last year.
On top of that, he has failed to understand that the industrial relations landscape has changed dramatically from when he last looked in 1980.
Phil Lowe is still waiting for the ‘wages explosion’, and all he can do is bring on recession to stop it.
Sadly, neither looks like happening in a non unionised Labor market, virtually full employment and growth coming from migration and a perennial mining boom.
Sad.
Phil Lowe has also failed to realise the cashed up Boomers don’t give a rat’s arse about rising interest rates – in fact the only whinge is that the big 4 banks aren’t raising term deposit rates as fast.
So the burden is falling with inequitable force on the poor chumps who believed Lowe when he said ‘interest rates will remain stable until 2024, at least’.
“If their wage growth stays in the same ballpark as inflation…”
Ahem.
But yeah, everything else you describe sounds like land speculation in France during the time of the Assignat, a period which was not known for its economic prosperity or political stability.
“If their wage growth stays in the same ballpark as inflation…”
Ahem.
But yeah, everything else you describe sounds like land speculation in France during the time of the Assignat, a period which was not known for its economic prosperity or political stability.
And now we have this.. is it to late for Lowe to say ‘Yes, Minister?’
Experienced public servant Jenny Wilkinson is being considered the frontrunner to become the next Governor of the Reserve Bank.
Sky News Australia understands that the Department of Finance Secretary is tipped to replace Philip Lowe in the coveted position when his term ends in September.
Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy and the Reserve Bank’s Deputy Governor Michele Bullock are also reportedly being considered.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was tight-lipped about Ms Wilkinson’s future in the role, but said she is doing a “fantastic” job currently at the Department of Finance.
“I’ll make those decisions around the cabinet table. Jenny Wilkinson is doing a fantastic job as Secretary of the Department of Finance, she was appointed by my government,” he told Sky News Australia.
“There are a range of people who will be under consideration, including of course the Governor himself of the Reserve Bank.
“We’ll make those decisions at an appropriate time, and we’ll do them properly and in an orderly way.”
https://www.skynews.com.au/business/finance/department-of-finance-secretary-jenny-wilkinson-firming-as-philip-lowes-replacement-as-reserve-bank-governor/news-story/5cf9b59474e3fa21d9baaf31a180d625
I
I feel like I’ve missed something. How can Ukraine possibly be accused of mining the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station? Perhaps Putin has failed to inform Russia and Russian media of this somewhat important fact. After all, on 2 March 2022 Russia itself informed the IAEA that its military forces had taken control of the nuclear plant.
Dandy Murray sans culottes @ #131 Wednesday, July 5th, 2023 – 2:58 pm
Perhaps. But France is still here and doing
finesomewhat poorly due to matters that have nothing to do with economics.But I highly doubt that his decisions are politically based.
——————————
If you think Lowe is some sort of Mentat able to assess all factors and make completely rational decisions devoid of bias like a robot then you are wrong.
Were his decisions political? Probably not. But they do not get made in a vacuum.
Interest rates and inflation (all types) are not intertwined in laws of physics. This isn’t science. It is ripe for things like bias and group think which is why the board needs diversity and the strength to question the chairman.
Someone said earlier than issues like inflation shouldn’t be left to a body with only one lever. I agree with this. You can argue all you want that we shouldn’t trust our governments with this sort of thing but is a cop-out for them (governments) and us (the voting public in a democracy). If we can’t get our shit together and vote in responsible and wise governments who hold the national interests above their own then we deserve what we get. Handing this sort of absolute power to an unelected and unaccountable technocrat is not acceptable or clever.
It’s Time for a female RBA Governor….
Jenny Wilkinson commenced as Secretary of the Department of Finance on 9 August 2022.
During her career, Jenny has held senior positions across a number of different departments and agencies. These have included the Commonwealth Treasury, the Parliamentary Budget Office, the Department of Industry, the Department of Climate Change, the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Working in these roles, she has been responsible for providing advice on a wide range of economic policy issues.
Jenny has served on a number of advisory boards including the ANU Tax Transfer Institute Advisory Board, the ANU College of Business and Economics Advisory Board, the Grattan Institute Public Policy Committee and the Melbourne Institute Advisory Board.
Jenny was awarded a PSM in 2021 for outstanding public service in the development of fiscal policy, particularly for the formulation of the Australian Government’s economic response to COVID 19 and implementation of JobKeeper.
Jenny holds a Masters Degree in Public Affairs from Princeton University and a Bachelors Degree in Economics (with Honours) from the Australian National University.
https://www.finance.gov.au/about-us/department/secretary
Sure it will. No rate hikes and rampaging inflation is awesome for anyone who availed themselves of the near-decade of almost-free money.
_____________
Then aren’t we glad rates were raised and inflation can get under control.
There is nothing worse than high inflation. Well apart from civil war.
Meanwhile Phil Lowe has worshipped at the alter of the Chicago School…
Photograph of Philip Lowe
Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Mr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.
He is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board and Payments System Board, and Chair of the Council of Financial Regulators. He is a member of the Financial Stability Board. Prior to his current role, he held the positions of Deputy Governor, Assistant Governor (Economic) and Assistant Governor (Financial System). He also spent two years at the Bank for International Settlements working on financial stability issues.
Mr Lowe is Chair of the Financial Markets Foundation for Children and a director of The Anika Foundation. He is also Chair of the Committee on the Global Financial System of the Bank for International Settlements.
Mr Lowe is a signatory to The Banking and Finance Oath.
Education The University of New South Wales (BComm Hons 1985)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (PhD 1991)
1980–97 Reserve Bank of Australia; various positions in International Department and Economic Group
1997–98 Head of Economic Research Department
1999–2000 Head of Financial Stability Department
2000–02 Bank for International Settlements; Head of Financial Institutions and Infrastructure Division
2002–03 Head of Domestic Markets Department
2003–04 Head of Economic Analysis Department
2004–09 Assistant Governor (Financial System)
2009–12 Assistant Governor (Economic)
2012–16 Deputy Governor
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 3:06 pm
It’s Time for a female RBA Governor….
_______
Have you worked out her BMI? 🙂
Be quiet TPOF. Smart people are talking.
Phil Lowe has worked his entire life within the cloistered walls of the RBA.
And with mostly a stacked board of Liberal stooges to agree with whatever the monetarist wanted.
Smart people are talking.
_____________________________
Indeed. Shame about your pointless interventions.
When inflation devalues middle class savings they become Nazis. The 1930s demonstrates that. Don’t make shopkeepers and middle managers angry. They will kill people.
When inflation devalues middle class savings they become Nazis. The 1930s demonstrates that. Don’t make shopkeepers and middle managers angry. They will kill people.
________________________________
That was early 1920s – due to Versailles treaty repayments. The 1930s was the era of the Great Depression. No inflation to be seen.
Sprocket
you are spot on.
You know how hard it’s been for retirees to get a decent interest rate on the portion of their funds they prudently invest in cash?
An acquaintance settled on a house and bought a new one for much less money a week before the GFC really bit.
Not much of an investor and wanted to let the dust on divorce settle so stuck a large six-figure sum in the bank for a year at 8 per cent.
Happy days. Never seen since.
For every loser on high interest rates there are probably several winners.
And just wait till the government does something about the deeming rates for aged pensioners’ investments.
Nath
“Not that I think Lowe neccessarily deserves to be reappointed. He’s made some poor statements. But I highly doubt that his decisions are politically based. Labor partisans just don’t like him because he’s a LNP appointment. But he was appointed as a Deputy Governor by Labor in 2012, so what about that? ”
I would say Lowe made at least four separate significant monetary policy mistakes in recent years:
1. Kept interest rates very low for too long in period prior to Covid
2. Made foolish and subsequently false statement that interest rates would not rise multiple times in 2020-21 period.
3. Delayed raising Australian interest rates in early 2022 after most OECD countries started doing so.
4. Having left interest rate rises for too long in 2022, he then raised interest rates more rapidly than most OECD countries, exacerbating short term pain.
There were other rhetorical mistakes too, like continually saying rising wages were causing rising inflation, which was empirically false. But the above were all policy errors, not just messaging.
The only point where I have sympathy for Lowe is that he was chairing an RBA board stacked with corporate suites and quite light on for actual economic modelling and forecasting experience. So this wasn’t all Lowe’s fault. But wherever the blame lies, this has been a poorly performing RBA board.
Not all inflation is the same. Certainly the causes can vary. So Things that worked in the distant past may not work today.
Or it may work but may have different side effects.
The main point I make is that the RBA has one lever. The scourge of inflation requires more concerted and coordinated effort.
Team Katich says:
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 3:03 pm
But I highly doubt that his decisions are politically based.
——————————
If you think Lowe is some sort of Mentat able to assess all factors and make completely rational decisions devoid of bias like a robot then you are wrong.
Were his decisions political? Probably not. But they do not get made in a vacuum.
Interest rates and inflation (all types) are not intertwined in laws of physics. This isn’t science. It is ripe for things like bias and group think which is why the board needs diversity and the strength to question the chairman.
Someone said earlier than issues like inflation shouldn’t be left to a body with only one lever. I agree with this. You can argue all you want that we shouldn’t trust our governments with this sort of thing but is a cop-out for them (governments) and us (the voting public in a democracy). If we can’t get our shit together and vote in responsible and wise governments who hold the national interests above their own then we deserve what we get. Handing this sort of absolute power to an unelected and unaccountable technocrat is not acceptable or clever.
———————————
I was listening to a podcast today discussing whether Warren Buffet was the GOAT investor. Somebody made the interesting point that Buffet was very late (years) investing in either Apple or Tesla. They pontificated that he was the product of an old paradigm that simply didn’t understand modern technology and the changes associated with it.
I’ve wondered a similar thing about Lowe and the RBA board more generally, are they products of an outdated paradigm, unable to reassess the changed environment and unused to alternate considerations?
I don’t think Phillip Lowe will be short of job opportunities if he gets the Royal Order of the Boot from the Reserve Bank.
Speaking of which, I see that the Treasurer has pretty much narrowed the field to replace him down to two. Stephen Kennedy and Jenny Wilkinson.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that I think Jenny Wilkinson will get the job. First Woman. No friend of the Coalition especially.
Team Katich
Snap.