The Age/Herald reports that the Resolve Strategic poll, from which budget response numbers were published on Tuesday, had strong results for Labor on voting intention, all but replicating the resounding Labor lead in the prevous poll a month ago. Labor was steady on the primary vote at 42%, with the Coalition up two to 30%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation down one to 5% and the United Australia Party up one to 2%. Resolve Strategic does not publish two-party preferred numbers, but I make this to be about 61-39 in Labor’s favour based on previous election preference flows, compared with 62-38 last time.
There are some rather quirky results in the breakdowns, including a lurch in favour of Labor in Victoria (what I reckon to be a two-party lead of about 66.5-33.5, out from 58-42 last time) and against it in Queensland (a lead of at most 51-49, compared with 60-40 last time). The poll also finds Labor doing slightly better among men than women, which is in contrast to Essential Research’s findings of a consistent gender gap in the opposite direction, in keeping with the conventional wisdom. However, Resolve Strategic’s finding was supported by the most recent aggregated demographic breakdowns from Newspoll, which had Labor leading 55-45 among men and 54-46 among women. All concerned find the Greens doing better among women than men.
The poll’s personal ratings record no change for Anthony Albanese, who remains at 56% in his combined very good and good rating and 29% for combined very poor and poor. Peter Dutton is respectively up two to 28% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 53-20, in from 55-21 last time.
Less happily for the government, the poll included a question on the Indigenous Voice that records the softest support of any credible poll to date, at odds with the near-simultaneous finding from Essential Research. It found 44% in favour (down two on a month ago), 39% opposed (up eight) and 18% undecided (down four), with a forced response follow-up recording 53% in favour and 47% opposed (58% and 42% last time). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1610 from Wednesday to Sunday.
The latest weekly Roy Morgan numbers suggest the slump it recorded in Labor support a fortnight ago to have been an anomaly – Labor now leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 54.5-45.5 last week and 53.5-46.5 the week before. The primary votes are Labor 36.5% (up one), Coalition 33.5% (down two) and Greens 13% (up half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday.
Arky:
I’d be astonished if the average Australian even knows Biden was supposed to visit, let alone cares. The other Quad leaders would presumably fully understand the need to prioritise serious domestic issues like the debt ceiling.
“Another fantastic benefit of national service is that we Young Liberals will have a captive audience. Other people our age will be forced to hang out with us – and see what snobbish little shits we are.
While I tend to agree with the Biden non-attendance being a bit of a nothing burger, it does reinforce that US National interest will always come first and foremost, and it reinforces just how stupid aukus was / is.
wranslide says:
Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 9:43 am
The comments today from the PM of PNG seem to be at odds with the earlier thoughts of the c@tmomma.
The SMH records him as saying
On Monday, PNG Prime Minister James Marape said that while the US had traditionally been a “silent” security partner to his nation, the countries would be signing two security pacts – one on defence co-operation and another on maritime surveillance – in a symbol that America was bolstering its efforts in the region.
“The USA has been a strong security partner of us, but silent, almost deep at the back. Now for the first time they are stepping out, coming to the front, engaging with PNG like never before,
中华人民共和国
Ahhh for days gone by. Papua was once part of the “Queensland Empire”.
After Papua’s annexation by Queensland in 1883 the British Empire initially refused to accept its new realm – thus for a time Papua was Queensland Territory. From there there is a certain ambiguity about the exact date on which the territory was annexed by the British. The Papua Act 1905 recites that this happened “on or about” 4 September 1888.
On 18 March 1902, the Territory was placed under the authority of the Commonwealth of Australia.
Thus Queenslands’ Empire building ceased – until 2022 when Norfolk Island was handed to Brisbane from the Bankrupt New South Wales Government (morally that is) with Tweed Heads being next.
Queensland shall not stop until the odious Daylight Saving is extinguished across the Great Southern Land.
““Another fantastic benefit of national service is that we Young Liberals will have a captive audience. Other people our age will be forced to hang out with us”
I am reminded of the ending of the movie Animal House, where the far right young ROTC lieutenant is reported later to have been “fragged by his own men” while serving in Vietnam.
Dutton doing a remarkable job of spruiking the government’s environmental policies.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/may/18/australia-news-live-aukus-submarines-peter-garrett-far-right-mayors-melbourne-lgbt-councils-quad-modi-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton
The Libs have just completely given up on the Teal seats, haven’t they?
BK says:
Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 10:00 am
“Another fantastic benefit of national service is that we Young Liberals will have a captive audience. Other people our age will be forced to hang out with us – and see what snobbish little shits we are.
中华人民共和国
The soon to be (hopefully) installed Progressive Government in Thailand’s will make a priority of ending conscription in the Kingdom. Hated by most Thais – this yearly ritual in which 20 year old males (unless you are a monk or turn into a Ladyboy) sees young men assemble to draw one of two cards. Red means two years serving in the Defence Forces – Black means expemption.
Apart from death being a common occurrence among conscripts (heat, hazing, beating by senior officers), many become servants of the higher ups.
You see the Thai military is burdened with over 1700 generals and admirals, which is more than their total number of warships, tanks, and aircraft put together! So someone has to do the washing up.
Ven @ #15 Thursday, May 18th, 2023 – 8:25 am
If people wanted COALition policies, they would have voted for a COALition government. Many of them thought were voting for a more progressive government. How wrong they were! They should have looked a little deeper at Labor’s promises, which turned out to be little more than “Business As Usual”.
If Labor think they can take their time and are just warming up for a four term period of government in which they can change things gradually, then they are being foolish in the extreme. It just doesn’t work that way. Whitlam showed how change in Australia must be done. It takes courage, backbone and a solid ideological basis. Whitlam’s policy innovations lasted well beyond his term of government because they delivered, and also because once people understood the benefits, it became difficult even for his opponents to justify changing things back again. Albo’s policy innovations – if you can find any – may not last beyond his own term of government, and certainly won’t last beyond Labor’s tenure – however long that is – because they simply don’t deliver much that would be noticed if they were undone.
The electorate is hungry for change, and are beginning to realize that change will no longer come from either of the major parties – if it comes at all, it will come from the cross benches.
Victoria @ #48 Thursday, May 18th, 2023 – 9:56 am
Okay, but wait for commercial building owners to start declaring bankruptcy first. This sounds like it’ll become a public handout to the rent-seekers. They’ll settle for a smaller one once they’ve been pushed to the brink.
Upnorth – what’s your take on BTP refusing to support Move Forward?
UK Cartoons:
I will be there on Sunday.
Will leave around 3 to go to Giants game.
WTF is this bullshit ??
Asha says:
Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 10:17 am
Dutton doing a remarkable job of spruiking the government’s environmental policies.
————————————-
Asha
The Libs are busy focussing entirely on sandbagging seats two years before the next election is due suggesting they have no expectation of regaining lost seats nor are the even pretending to try.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/darwins-sustainable-middle-arm-development-is-key-to-huge-fossil-fuel-projects-documents-show
…and totally unsurprising.
“WTF is this bullshit ??”
We should be relieved it is only $40 mill.
The Albanese Govt is excelling in traditional right wing Govt policy of propping up religious institutions, the fossil fuel and defence industries and the already wealthy.
It’s devastating to watch.
Victoria says:
Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 9:56 am
Thisis being done overseas. It makes sense.
———-
Exclusive: The New South Wales government will explore converting empty offices and unused government buildings into much-needed social housing, as commercial building owners grapple with a surge in vacancies. #nswpol
There is a problem.
Housing requires a window an office does not. The floors are larger in office buildings. The buildings are only suitable for large apartments.
Pueo says:
Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 10:24 am
Upnorth – what’s your take on BTP refusing to support Move Forward?
中华人民共和国
I can’t see Bhumjaithai (BTP) nominating their leader, Anutin (currently acting Deputy PM and Acting Heakth Minister) as PM. But also I don’t think Move Forward will be too worried about BTP not supporting them. BTP is easily the biggest of the former Government Parties and I think will take the mantle of Opposition.
The Democrats seem to have learnt their lessson and are talking of supporting Move Forward on the PM vote and then sitting in Opposition. With the 23 Democrat MPs joing with the single MP Parties who indicated support for Move Forward yesterday, only 30 odd more votes are needed either from the Senate or other Parties in the Lower House.
BTP may be smart and support Move Forward as it is what the vast majority of the people want. BTP will be positioning themselves for the next election.
There was conjecture that BTP and Pheu Thai would form a coalition and get the backing of the Senate to elect the PM. Pheu Thai has ruled this out. I think Move Forward will supply the PM and Pheu Thai Deputy PM and probably Defence Minister (so as not to scare the horses).
The Senate seems very split on what to do. The 6 Military and Police Senators have said they will not Vote to ensure impartiality. Some Senators are openly hostile to Move Forward and its plan to reform section 112 (Insults to the Royal Institution), but others have said they will follow the will of the people.
I am hearing business is pushing hard for a Move Forward Government as they can see the financial cost of mass Civil unrest if that’s not the case coming so soon after COVID enforced shut downs.
I’m optomistic that Move Forward will get up – there is simply too much “People Power” to stop the momentum – but as always in Thailand “There is a surprise just around the corner”.
He keeps proving true Mark McGowans description of him.
Anyone who thought AUKUS was a good idea should now realize that the USA will always put their own interests ahead of Australias and it is very unlikely AUKUS will survive the necessary next 3 US Presidents before Australia builds any Nuclear powered subs.
The USA only wants to use Australia as base for their nuclear armed subs and as a sacrificial front line in their battle to stop Chinas development.
Australia must develop independent foreign and defence polices and stop being a pathetic Yes Man to the USA which, as Bob Carr stated, only results in Australia being treated with total contempt and disrespect by the USA.
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 10:31 am
WTF is this bullshit ??
The @AlboMP Government will help protect places of worship, religious schools and associated organisations with a new $40 million grants program to improve security and safety.The Securing Faith-Based Places grants program will open for applications in July 2023.— Mark Dreyfus (@MarkDreyfusKCMP) May 16, 2023
中华人民共和国
The Queensland Lands Office used to sit above Queenslands’ only Synagogue – The Queensland Police Service were regularly called after acts of vadalism and Nazi Graffiti. In Kingston, In Logan City, a Mosque exists which has also been targeted by (perhaps the same) “Domestic Terrorists” Pigs Heads and Graffiti and again the Queensland Police Force called to investigate.
One day my fear is that these individuals or groups will use more “forceful means” to disrupt these places of worship (as happens in the USA). We cannot and should never turn a blind eye to the threats of “Domestic Terrorism” in Australia. Two dead Queensland Police Officers and a civilian in December last year are examples of what happens.
I’ve been wondering about Suella Braverman’s, UK Home Secretary, class of racism.
First generation Brit with a mother who is of Hindu Tamil Mauritian descent and a father who is of Hindu Tamil Mauritian descent.
What shapes a person like her to be ultra conservative, with a very particular focus on bigotry. Does she see herself as having license to say and act in a racist manner as she is not white? Does she really hold these views as a deeply held set of values, and if so how did she arrive at this point? Or is she using the trope of hordes of immigrants taking your jobs as a mechanism to gain and retain political power?
Just been wondering, anyone have a view on the matter?
Speaking of the USA, the Economist interviewed Henry Kissinger, who also says USA must learn to live with China, not fight them.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/05/17/henry-kissinger-explains-how-to-avoid-world-war-three?utm_content=article-link-1&etear=nl_today_1&utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=5/17/2023&utm_id=1601076
Kissinger now thinks Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO. He is a bit late to the party there.
https://www.economist.com/kissinger-highlights?utm_campaign=a.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=5/17/2023&utm_id=1601076
Upnorth
“You see the Thai military is burdened with over 1700 generals and admirals, which is more than their total number of warships, tanks, and aircraft put together! So someone has to do the washing up.”
That is incredible! The Thai military is all up 360,000 uniforms, so that is one general or admiral for every 200 serving. So probably more than ten times too many.
In most armies 200 soldiers is a large company, which would normally be commanded by a Captain, or a small Battalion, which might be commanded by a Major. Or the crew of a single warship… commanded by a Captain, not an Admiral 🙂
Magical thinking … and the Ghost of Ronnie Raygun:
‘Dutton invoked Ronald Reagan’s policies responding to the oil crisis in 1981 by letting “freedom solve the problem through the magic of the marketplace”.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/18/peter-dutton-claims-labor-wants-gas-gone-and-urges-sector-to-fight-intervention
I see Rex’s fake outrage is next to be directed at synagogues and mosques and schools having increased security against neo Nazi thugs.
People trying to seize on Biden’s cancelled visit to say anything about AUKUS or the US alliance generally are being very, very boring. You haven’t found a startling new insight into the US, just making a mountain out of a molehill to advance your pre-existing agenda, exactly like Fox News etc do every day. You must be so proud of yourselves for discovering this technique.
Rex Douglas @ #65 Thursday, May 18th, 2023 – 10:38 am
Indeed. This is exactly what the Safeguard mechanism was designed to safeguard. Also, it is important to remember that when a government says something is “sustainable” what they generally mean is that it sustains their position on the treasury benches.
Ah, the Young Libs…..
Back in the day they had the best parties and the prettiest girls….
Young Labor was made up of overly-serious disciples of Lenin and Trotsky and totally up themselves.
I think the ideologues have now taken over in Young Libs and they would be on a par with what used to be Young Labor……stuffed full of opinionated 20 somethings……..
MI
The Guardian did a deep dive into Braverman’s background and rise to prominence a few days ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/14/the-face-of-cruel-britannia-who-is-the-real-suella-braverman
It’s a bit of a read but t seems that her underlying motivation is ambition. And mixing ambition with a bit of racism works a treat in 21st Century Britain.
Here’s a sample of opinion on her: As the columnist and author Sathnam Sanghera phrased it: “You can make it to the top in Britain as a person of colour, as long as you agree to argue that racism is not a problem, and as long as you’re willing to propound actual racism in your politics.”
This should come as no surprise:
[‘House Republicans blocked Democrats’ effort to expel scandal-plagued Rep. George Santos from Congress less than a week after the first-term Republican congressman pleaded not guilty to fraud charges.
Democrats pushed a resolution to expel Santos, but Republicans instead voted along party lines 221 to 204 to send the matter to the House Ethics Committee. Seven Democrats voted present, including several on the House Ethics panel to head off concerns of a conflict of interest.
The one-sentence resolution introduced on Tuesday by California Rep. Robert Garcia was largely a symbolic one; the measure was widely expected to fail but forced House Republicans to go on the record about their colleague from New York.’] – NPR
And even if Santos goes down on any of the 13 felony charges he faces, there is no Constitutional bar to him remaining a Rep. But Section 3 of the 14th Amendment prohibits anyone from holding public office if they have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the U.S. And it’s this section that might trap Trump – Santos is only small fry in the scheme of things.
Australia’s unemployment rate has risen to 3.7 per cent after an estimated 4,300 jobs were lost last month, according to official estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Economists were generally expecting the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.5 per cent with the creation of 25,000 jobs.
But the number of officially unemployed people rose in April, by 18,000, and the participation rate decreased slightly, by 0.1 percentage points to 66.7 per cent. The employment-to-population ratio also slipped a little, by 0.2 percentage points to 64.2 per cent.
Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said the small fall in employment last month followed an average monthly increase of 39,000 jobs in the first three months of the year.
Rossmcg @ #79 Thursday, May 18th, 2023 – 11:52 am
Do you think it’s a case of actually leaning into racism as a mechanism of appeasing/appealing the white people in power within the conservative party? “See her racist stance, we can look past the colour of her skin as she’s one of us”?
Former Liberal minister Stuart Robert has formally resigned from federal parliament. Mr Robert, who announced he would step down earlier this month, tendered his resignation on Thursday. The resignation will trigger a by-election in his Gold Coast electorate of Fadden.
In a statement, a spokeswoman for House of Representatives Speaker Milton Dick said dates for the by-election were now being considered, with an announcement on the timing to be made soon. Mr Robert was first elected to the seat in 2007 and served in roles including employment minister, skills minister and NDIS minister during the previous coalition government. At the last election, Mr Robert suffered a 3.5 per cent against him. The coalition holds the safe seat by more than 10 per cent.
Two candidates have nominated for LNP preselection – Gold Coast Council planning chief Cameron Caldwell and former Queenslander of the Year Dr Dinesh Palipana. Party nominations for the seat close on Friday.
Victoria @ #48 Thursday, May 18th, 2023 – 9:56 am
My company’s office building in Milson’s Point was converted to apartments in 2006, as was the Sharp building next door, and another, down Arthur St.
45 storeys, all up, at around six apartments per floor.
Whites have always welcomed non-whites on the proviso that the non-white person work to further entrench white power and privilege. Isn’t that right, Uncle Tom/Ruckus?
Adelaide: A crackdown on extreme protesters is looming in the wake of chaotic city climate stunt on Wednesday, as both the government and the Opposition propose tough new laws.
Premier Peter Malinauskas condemned Extinction Rebellion for their decision to shut down the city, which prevented ambulances from getting to hospitals and motorists from travelling. In comments that minor parties said risked democracy, Opposition Leader David Speirs said the Liberals would draft a new amendment allowing for jail time and fines of up to $50,000 for protesters who cause community chaos and risk to public safety.
On Thursday, in their third consecutive day of extreme protesting, Extinction Rebellion activists vandalised the Santos building on Flinders St. In comments on Thursday, Mr Malinauskas said the government was drafting urgent new laws to crack down on disruptive stunts. The Advertiser has been told he has called an “urgent” meeting of Labor MPs on Thursday to discuss a crackdown.
The West Australian has a polling article not behind a paywall.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/new-poll-reveals-wa-warming-to-anthony-albanese-as-peter-dutton-slumps-to-new-low-c-10682016
This would be a recent poll of three identical questions about satisfaction levels of Albo, Chalmers, and Dutton. I answered the Dutton question by reading it literally and saying I was very satisfied with his performance, I am a wokey leftard after all.
If others read the Dutton question like I did, he is doing an even better or worse job, depending on your political inclinations, than the poll suggests.
Well done Mr Dutton.
Queensland Cabinet re-shuffle without the News Corpse Shit.
“On Thursday, 18th May 2023, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced a reshuffle of her cabinet.
Minister Yvette D’ath and Attorney General, Shannon Fentiman have exchanged portfolios.
Yvette D’Ath will be reassuming her former position as Attorney-General, a position she held from 2017 until the state election in October 2020. She will also take on the Prevention of Domestic and Family Violence portfolio.
Shannon Fentiman will take on the Health Portfolio. She remains the Minister for Women.
Other notable changes include:
Minister Scanlon will now serve as Minister for Housing.
Minister Di Farmer, who was youth justice minister until 2020, returns to the role.
Minister Crawford will serve as Minister for Child Safety, Seniors and Disability Services.
Minister Linard will serve as the Minister for the Environment and Great Barrier Reef, Science and Multicultural Affairs.
Minister Bailey will add Minister for Digital Services to his existing portfolios.
Minister Enoch will add Minister for Treaty, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Partnerships while remaining the Minister for Communities and Arts.
Socrates @ Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 11:38 am:
“ Kissinger now thinks Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO. He is a bit late to the party there.”
=============
Socrates, true enough, but Ukrainians will nevertheless eagerly welcome this conversion on the road to Damascus, and encourage many more erstwhile sceptics of Ukraine joining NATO to follow suit. The more voices who were sceptical that join the chorus of support for Ukraine’s swift and complete integration into NATO (and the EU for that matter), the more pressure there will be on holdout countries to drop their (often just plain selfish) hesitancy.
Robert has resigned but I don’t think it will be the last time he’ll be seen in Canberra – in person or in camera.
China says it will resume timber imports from Australia.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-18/china-will-resume-australian-timber-trade-imports/102362264
Score for today Albo 1 Dutton 0
Culmulative Albo 360 Dutton 0
I agree with this.
We desperately need progressive crossbench BoP.
Good news on another by- election on the way. 🙂
Maybe Scomo should do the right thing and piss off now so that they can do both by-elections on the same day and get the whole lancing of those boils over and done with??
Would of course be terrible to see the Libs lose either of those seats or get a s ignificant swing against them. 🙂 🙂 The lead up too them will be worthy and enjoyable theater.
As inequality and concerns around the ongoing climate catastrophe increase, the Govts will of necessity get more and more brutal in the authoritarian silencing of protest and disent.
The reports above regarding Labor in South Australia taking a very strong boot to the neck of basic democractic freedoms is no surprise.
2005 you remember just like yesterday hey Yabba?
Funny how the long term is clear and the short term fuzzy.
[‘Have you ever wondered how much of your personal information is available online? Here’s your chance to find out.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-18/data-breaches-your-identity-interactive/102175688
Mavis @ #90 Thursday, May 18th, 2023 – 12:26 pm
It’s going to be hard for the NACC to decide the order of priority of investigation. So much to investigate.
I just hope it is appropriately resourced.
A shame Labor and L/NP teamed up to keep it all under a veil of secrecy.
WeWantPaul @ #94 Thursday, May 18th, 2023 – 12:31 pm
Yes it’s very troubling to see fascist tendencies on display in the SA parliament.
I see the hard left here and the hard right are merging in their condemnation of the Albo government. A good indication that they are governing with the middle ground in mind where the majority of voters are. May it continue.
Tricot says:
Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 11:52 am
Ah, the Young Libs…..
Back in the day they had the best parties and the prettiest girls….
Young Labor was made up of overly-serious disciples of Lenin and Trotsky and totally up themselves.
I think the ideologues have now taken over in Young Libs and they would be on a par with what used to be Young Labor……stuffed full of opinionated 20 somethings…….
Agree re, back in the day. And it certainly has changed.