Polls: Indigenous voice in WA and Morgan voting intention (open thread)

A poll that uses the exact wording to be featured on the ballot paper finds support for an Indigenous voice holding up in Western Australia.

The West Australian had a poll on Tuesday from Painted Dog Research that put the exact question to be featured on the ballot paper at the Indigenous voice referendum found a 60-40 of its WA-only respondent base coming down in favour, with sharp distinctions by age (71-29 in favour among 18-to-34, 63-37 in favour among 35-to-54 and 53-47 against among 55-plus) and gender (69-31 for yes among women compared with 51-49 among men). The poll was conducted over the weekend from a sample of 1052,

The only other poll news unrelated to Aston that I have to hang a new open thread off is the regular Roy Morgan result, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 35.5%, Coalition 32% and Greens 13%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday, so may have picked up static from the New South Wales election, with an unreported sample size.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

790 comments on “Polls: Indigenous voice in WA and Morgan voting intention (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 16
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  2. Cat

    “ How long before the booking photo of Trump gets leaked? ”

    Bonus points if they release it with Trump standing next to the height markers.

  3. Confessions says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 5:14 am

    Strange that men are less inclined to support the Voice compared with women. I wonder what’s going on there.
    ____________

    Angry white male vote?

  4. @Pueo: Thanks. OK, so Penman has gone from crank to, well, crankier. If he attempts to go through with it he’ll discover the ATO don’t give a shit about crank sovereignty claims.

  9. As someone in regional Vic, $9.30 a day to travel anywhere in the state sounds pretty good.

    “Dan Andrews@DanielAndrewsMP · 1h
    Starting today, regional and metro tickets are the same price.
    Because fare’s fair.”

  12. C@tmomma, you might have some insight as a woman on this. Why are men so right-wing and regressive compared to women on social issues? There is like a 20-30 point gender gap in the US on two party vote and this gets bigger every few years. I have never voted LNP in my life, but this gender difference seems to be borne out amongst my acquaintances. Why do blokes have to be such jerks?

  13. Ven says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 8:40 am
    YEAH! Donald is indicted by New York Prosecutor regarding Stormy Daniels issue.
    I want to shout the above from roof tops
    ————————————————————————

    Great news and I can hear a number of Republican presidential nominees sighing with relief whilst simultaneously publicly railing at this news.

  14. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 9:53 am

    C@tmomma, you might have some insight as a woman on this. Why are men so right-wing and regressive compared to women on social issues? There is like a 20-30 point gender gap in the US on two party vote and this gets bigger every few years. I have never voted LNP in my life, but this gender difference seems to be borne out amongst my acquaintances. Why do blokes have to be such jerks?
    ____________

    I have to go out soon, so I’ll jump in before C@t.

    It’s a question of empathy. There are probably psychological studies that show women are more likely to empathise with those for whom life holds, shall we say, “challenges”.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 8:51 am
    Ven,
    Yes, the Coalition under Dutton are so unimaginative that I have already labelled them, Tony Abbott 2.0

    Even Michelle Grattan is bored almost to death by their Question Time behaviour:

    The backbenchers in the government and opposition are at their worst in the House of Representatives question time, which continues to be as uninformative as ever.

    This government (like its predecessor) uses question time to parade what it is doing, with endless so-called Dorothy Dixers, which must be embarrassing to ask. Apart from questions on the Voice, the opposition asks variations on a common range of questions about cost of living, energy prices and the like, often with a slogan attached – “why do Australian families always pay more under Labor?”

    The Coalition questions are predictable and repetitive so the prime minister and practised senior ministers have little trouble batting them away. In the last parliament, question time was frequently painful for the Morrison government; in this parliament, it is seldom difficult for the Albanese government.

    Rarely does the opposition produce anything from its own independent research with which to surprise a potentially vulnerable minister. Nor does it effectively use question time to extract information.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-we-need-more-tax-revenue-but-dont-ask-the-major-parties-how-well-get-it-202954
    ———————————————————————————————

    C@T

    I think the Coalition’s propensity for failing to change methodologies or strategies even in parliament is an extension of the belief that it was the voters who got it wrong last election. So the Coalition believes that eventually the voters will get it right and in the meantime there’s neither the need nor desire to change.

    There’s no need for assymetric tactics or deep probing by the Coalition (not that they’ll find much) and so the best they can offer is to not turn up or literally run from parliamentary involvement. They’ve got nothin! A dispirited and disinterested shambles.

  21. Socrates says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 10:12 am

    Trump’s indictment is being well received on Twitter.
    ____________

    As much as I hold Trump in contempt, I find those images concerning. (I’m sure they’re cut/paste jobs.)

    The antidote to Trumpism isn’t reverse-Trumpism, it is civility and due process.

  22. BK, ‘ poxted’ is possibly an apocryphal typo when posting some of those right wing cartoons. However we need to see them imo and I dips me lid to you for your efforts.

  23. Snappy Tomsays:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 9:27 am
    Annika Smethurst reckons Dan Andrews’ secret China trip is among his most flagrant acts of arrogance.
    The Vic Libs should adopt the Qld LNP strategy from a decade ago: elect a leader who is not yet an MP. In the Vic case, Annika.
    _____________________
    God knows what he is signing us up for now. Probably find out in around 4 years time.
    Not a good look for Wong either.

  24. https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/trump-indictment-bragg-legal-case/

    Donald Trump Has Been Indicted. Don’t Get Your Hopes Up.
    This is the first real attempt to hold Trump legally accountable for any of his many alleged crimes. But the odds of securing real justice seem very long.

    By Elie MystalTwitter
    TODAY 6:00 PM

    Late Thursday evening, a Manhattan grand jury voted to bring charges against former president Donald Trump in connection with hush-money payments to actress Stormy Daniels. The specific charges are not yet known, though Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg will likely announce them in the near future.

    The indictment represents the first real attempt to hold Trump legally accountable for any of his many alleged crimes. But the odds that the path to real justice, let alone prison time, runs through the Manhattan DA’s office still seem very, very long.

  26. Hard to disagree with this …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/31/greens-senator-nick-mckim-blasts-climate-groups-after-divisions-over-safeguard-mechanism

    “The environment and climate movement needs to collectively get its shit together. There is a desperate need for a new model of change and the clock is ticking loudly,” he said. “The movement needs to have a genuine discussion about how it can help bring about the change we need in the timeframe we need it.”

    My only criticism is that I would include the Greens in that criticism. They should be able to garner wide support in the regions where the effects of climate breakdown are blindingly obvious, but they cannot – because they are too obsessed by inner-city issues.

    As I have said before, the Greens (big G) have in many ways been detrimental to the green (small-G) movement in Australia. Their approach of niggling away at an unresponsive Labor party which is still beholden to the Fossil Fuel industry may succeed in the long run – but we simply don’t have sufficient time left to wait to find out.

  27. Andrews probably took no journalists with him to China for the same reasons I wouldn’t take an un-toilet trained pup on a road trip. They’d just shit on the carpet(metaphorically of course).

  29. Taylormade says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 10:19 am

    Snappy Tomsays:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 9:27 am
    Annika Smethurst reckons Dan Andrews’ secret China trip is among his most flagrant acts of arrogance.
    The Vic Libs should adopt the Qld LNP strategy from a decade ago: elect a leader who is not yet an MP. In the Vic case, Annika.
    _____________________
    God knows what he is signing us up for now. Probably find out in around 4 years time.
    Not a good look for Wong either.
    ____________

    Yes, probably facilitating Chinese student travel, that sort of thing. Bringing economic activity to Victoria. Total dictatorship.

  30. “why do Australian families always pay more under Labor?”

    Because the Coalition trashed the place over the nine years they were in charge. We’re fixing it but it takes time.

  31. Eugene Debs famously got 3.4% of the vote in 1920 running for president from prison.

    Although no former President has gone on trial, a former VP has. Spiro Agnew plead “no contest” to fraud charges after resigning in 1973. And Arron Burr was tried for treason years after being VP.

  32. Arky

    The infamous Prince Leonard of Hutt fought several battles with the ATO, generally lost.
    The media portrayed him as a figure of fun. He was actually just another businessman who didn’t like rules or paying tax.
    I have read enough of Penman to know there’s way more to him than the battler made good image he has in some media.
    On a brighter note it’s raining in Perth. 30 something millimetres overnight, the first significant rain (more than 2mm) since mid November.
    Given the general incompetence of Perth’s drivers it will be chaos on the roads this morning.

  34. Steve777 @ #80 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 9:24 am

    “why do Australian families always pay more under Labor?”

    Because the Coalition trashed the place over the nine years they were in charge. We’re fixing it but it takes time.

    And don’t forget the RBA. Quite suspiciously shut down the free-money fountain and started hiking interest rates pretty much the moment it became clear that the Coalition would not be winning the next Federal election.

  35. Far from being a solution, the indictment and possible conviction of Trump may not help the Democrats at all but rather confirm a second Trump (or first DeSantis) administration.
    The MAGA people will now vote for him in droves, including many that might have been originally too apathetic to turn up.
    Perhaps the New York prosecutors should have thought clearly about this before they enacted these deeds.

  38. The biggest political challenge of our times is to convince voters that in order to have all the things we want, we need t raise taxes.

  40. “The antidote to Trumpism isn’t reverse-Trumpism, it is civility and due process.”

    I don’t 100% agree with you on that Snappy, either on the tactics or the specific example.

    A bit of mild mocking, as seen in that meme, is not reverse trumpism. It’s not fact-free projection; it’s not violent allusion; its not suggesting the constitution and laws of the USA need to be ignored.

    It might be a bit triumphalist for your taste, but it is pitched towards Americans who, let’s say, have some cultural differences to us on that front.

  42. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/30/polls-indigenous-voice-in-wa-and-morgan-voting-intention-open-thread/#comment-4089301

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/04/equity-language-guides-sierra-club-banned-words/673085/

    I get the whole not given oxygen to certain stories/ tweets/ cartoons, however … they are out there and not going away, it’s going to take a lot more than SJW/ pollyTICal correctness[/ even anti-nasties laws] to make the source of their disgruntlement/ cause go away, I treat some of that like I would get the stuff on TV requiring the remote control (to change the channel rather than break the screen)

    Very appreciative of the Dawn Patrol

  43. I have been following this subject closely:

    New obesity treatments offer hope, but can we afford them, asks John Dwyer who looks at the condition.
    https://johnmenadue.com/new-obesity-treatments-offer-hope-but-can-we-afford-them/

    Sadly the news isn’t all good:

    Stopping Equals Weight Regain

    Obesity is a chronic disease like hypertension. It responds to treatment and when people stop taking these anti-obesity medications, this is generally associated with increased appetite and less satiety, and there is subsequent weight regain and a recurrence in excess weight-related complications.

    The STEP-1 trial extension showed an initial mean body weight reduction of 17.3% with weekly semaglutide 2.4 mg over 1 year. On average, two thirds of the weight lost was regained by participants within 1 year of stopping semaglutide and the study’s lifestyle intervention. Many of the improvements seen in cardiometabolic variables, like blood glucose and blood pressure, similarly reverted to baseline.

    There was also this study:

    The patient is delighted, feels better, and now “knows what to do” to avoid regaining weight. But in the reduced-weight state, the patient experiences biologic and physiologic changes that can’t be perceived by them, but which drive weight regain.

    Thus, we usually watch the patient slowly and inexorably regain all of the lost weight. This is demoralizing to patients, who frequently blame their “resolve.” Understanding the biologic defense of body fat mass is essential to understanding the weight regain phenomenon and to helping patients succeed with long-term maintenance of weight loss.

    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/974209

  44. Jim Penham of Jim’s mowing is a poor excuse for a human being.

    Just ask the many people who have signed onto his many franchises.

    In fact many moons ago, he offered my other half a franchise using his name.
    This was to be in the field my other half specialised in.
    It was such a great offer not.

    In a nutshell. Other half does all the work and provide the equipment etc and wonderful Jim gets the biggest cut. All for the privilege of using his name.
    Laughed in his face.

    I am proud to say that I have never used any of his services and made sure that anyone I knew didn’t either.

  45. zoomster:

    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 10:35 am

    [‘MM

    The justice system should never take this kind of consideration into account.

    The same arguments have been used against charging Putin with war crimes.’]

    Exactly.

  46. MelbourneMammoth @ #87 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 10:32 am

    Far from being a solution, the indictment and possible conviction of Trump may not help the Democrats at all but rather confirm a second Trump (or first DeSantis) administration.
    The MAGA people will now vote for him in droves, including many that might have been originally too apathetic to turn up.
    Perhaps the New York prosecutors should have thought clearly about this before they enacted these deeds.

    No. One. Is. Above. The. Law.

    Plus, Michael Cohen has already done hard prison time for the same thing. You can’t have one rule for some and another rule for someone else.

  49. Dog’s Brunch says:
    Friday, March 31, 2023 at 10:34 am

    The biggest political challenge of our times is to convince voters that in order to have all the things we want, we need t raise taxes.
    ____________

    Don’t worry, Michelle Grattan’s on the case!

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