Click here for full NSW election results updated live.
Saturday morning
If I understand the situation correctly, yesterday saw only check counts conducted of votes that had already been reported on the initial count – the check count results will not be published in the media feed, which is the source of the data in my results system and those of other media outlets, and have not yet been published on the Electoral Commission system either. However, Antony Green reports checking unearthed a fairly substantial error at the Mittagong Public School booth in Wollondilly, discovery of which has boosted independent candidate Judy Hannan’s lead by 450 votes and dispelled any lingering doubt as to whether she will win.
Tomorrow, entirely new batches of postal, absent and enrolment/provisional votes will be counted and added to the media feed – the expected number of which and the order in which they will be conducted by seat are available here. As before, these will include two-candidate preferred results for the postal votes, but not for the absents and enrolment/provisionals.
Friday morning
A fresh post on the New South Wales election count, the earlier instalment of which can be found here. The Electoral Commission spent today tackling absents and enrolment/provisional reasons — for whatever reason, it only counts primary votes during the first of the two counts it conducts of these votes, so we will be flying blind on this front for the time being at least. The additions to the count yesterday were not huge (and there was no progress at all in Oatley or Pittwater) — the absent vote tallies noted below accounted for at most around a quarter of what’s likely to be their total, and absents have a way of varying from batch to batch depending on where they come from.
I haven’t been following the upper house count, but I’m told that here too things are improving for the Liberals, meaning a likely result of Labor eight, Coalition seven, Greens two and one apiece from One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers, resulting in a chamber in which the left and right have 21 seats apiece.
Holsworthy. No one’s holding out much hope for Labor here, with a 526 vote Liberal lead before yesterday’s additions and postals likely to widen it decisively. Labor would have clawed back about 50 votes on yesterday’s 766 formal absents, but they gained little advantage on the 263 enrolment/provisionals.
Ryde. Labor leads by 235 on the two-party count, which doesn’t include today’s 949 absents, on which I imagine they would have gained about two dozen, and 708 enrolment/provisionals, which broke pretty evenly. Labor’s gain on absents was rather weak in swing terms, which may be because they come from a relatively strong area for the Liberals. If not, the odds on the Liberals chasing Labor down on the many thousands of outstanding postals (2064 have been counted and the NSWEC has received nearly 9000 of them) will have shortened.
Terrigal. I would estimate that Labor gained about 40 on 839 absents and 90 on 670 enrolment/provisionals, but here too the swings to them were relatively weak, which reduces the chances of them wearing down a 237-vote Liberal lead that will surely increase on outstanding postals, of which the Electoral Commission has received 5288 and counted 615. If Labor has a hope, it’s that the remaining absents come from stronger areas and that postals sent closer to election day are more favourable to them than the earlier ones.
Wollondilly. Today’s additions were modest in number, but Judy Hannan did remarkably badly on the 305 absents, scoring only 37 (12.1%) to the Liberals’ 103 (33.8%) and failing to improve on her performance in 2019. I suspect these came from a weak and probably rural area for her, but they nonetheless fortify me in my decision to not call it for her yet despite her 1350 lead on the two-candidate count.
Under non proportional voting Mrs Shogun’s choice has difficulty being heard and close to no chance of having any part of power.
In the current environment 30% of the population are in a similar position.
I am sure both of the duopoly parties will fight to the death to continue with preferential voting.
At least the NZ government went to the people with a number of options including preferential, MMP and modified Hare-Clarke
We do have proportional representation in the Upper House already, I think there is a place for directly elected local candidates in our democracy.
Shogun
I think an unrealistic view and arrogant on the part of the duopoly.
Sure x has put the AJP first but what they really Saying is that they want a labor government
MMP gives both seat based candidates and proportional representation
In NZ they have reserved and unreserved seats which also adds intrigue to their unique system.
Thanks, D F M Brown, Illawarra Observer and Outside Left,
Very interesting.
leftieBrawler @ #41 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 12:41 pm
Thanks to those who posted. And here I thought it was just the recent/current incumbents who were useless and/or dysfunctional. Turns out it goes back not just to the previous lot, but to the ones before that as well. Must be something in the water. There appears to be little or no hope for the local council, but perhaps the new state and federal reps might bring some improvement.
The Shoalhaven desperately needs it. I have never seen it anywhere near as bad it is now, and I have been a part-time resident here my entire life before becoming a full-time resident. You have no idea how I wish now that I had not done that.
True, Leftie but my understanding is that electors in the reserved seats still get the second (government) vote so that proportionality is sustained
Why so cynical player one?.
Do you realise the shoalhaven council has 3 labor members on the wards plus a directly elected and re-elected mayor who runs as a formal member of the NSW Green Party??.
You appear to come from the Bandt school of ZERO compromise and ZERO pragmatism. This is why the LNP was able to rule in NSW and federally for so long.
Your type of green politicking only helps LNP governments get up and keep on rolling on.
You seem quite pathetic to me in many ways with your pie in the sky musings.
Please try to get into the real world. Now apparently the pristine surrounds of the shoalhaven and its beaches are now too much for you to cope with.
even when he got a state seat Ward aparently still wanted to be in federal politicss in 2012 got his mate Andrew giole to chalinge 2012 sudmarlis beat him then in 2019 and 2022 first wanted to contest but morrison backed constence and aligations came out so tried to install his close friend and current sholehavin cowncil member and nsw liberal state egzecutive paul ell in golmore wonder if ell will run in gilmore next time
ward also got up his close mate luke sikora in south coast as well he singled him out in his very arogent maiden speech sikora worked for 2 decades in hancocks ofice and chief of staff
there is a councilor john wells on sholehavin any relaetion to the former liberal senater
I am thinking you might have left libertarian leanings with comments like those leftiebrawler.
Remember as Liberace said “too much of a good thing is wonderful”
Not sure if they are related Aaron.
Aaron have you given any thought to my suggestion that you consider getting on our ticket for the LC?.
Ell is as good as finished along with the defeated south coast candidate Sikora.
Both got their starts as Ward groupies and disciples in one form or another as campaign managers etc.
Fiona has Gilmore locked in for as long as she wants it and I suspect she will hold it at least to retirement age.
leftieBrawler @ #59 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 2:07 pm
You appear to be making the same mistake as some others here, in assuming I am a big-g Green. I am not. I am a little-g green. Which is why I moved to the Shoalhaven. But the dysfunctional politics here – at every level of government, but most especially the local – has done more damage to the place than either the drought, the bushfires, the floods, or Covid. I didn’t expect that.
Perhaps best to continue this on the main (open) thread if you want, lest we test William’s patience too far.
leftieBrawler @ #64 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 2:25 pm
You might be surprised to hear that this is not widely regarded by all Labor voters as good news.
I highly doubt it player one.
Outside left is the only one on PB more knowledgeable of Gilmore labor than me so I feel quite confident when I say your last post re Fiona is beyond delusional
leftieBrawler @ #67 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 3:07 pm
This is not a NSW state election issue, so if you want to discuss it further, move it to the open thread.
Oakeshott Country says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 12:51 pm
Preferential voting empowers a duopoly. It is a reasonable voting system when the duoploy attracts >90% support but now it props up a dying system with 30% of the electorate not supporting either choice.
If constitutional reform is on the agenda a form of proportional representation would be more reflective of the current situation rather than the reimposition of the tired old system
____________
You could sell me on Mixed Member Proportional – as long as the individual electorates DON’T use First Past the Post!
A sad thing is the smokers on the footpath, with their oxygen bottles smoking away because they don’t allow that shit in hospitals anymore.
leftieBrawler says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 12:24 pm
Never been a smoker- didn’t even experiment
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At the age of 16 or 17 I bought a packet of Craven-A before going to a dance.
Trying to act cool.
By the end of the night they were all gone.
Next day I was sick as a dog.
Never had a cigarette since.
Player Onesays:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 1:57 pm
leftieBrawler @ #41 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 12:41 pm
Hahaha yes the sauce incident –
See the picture here where it’s widely believed he added more sauce himself to his face before the picture was taken
https://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/986529/uproar-in-council/
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98.6 says:
After seeing that photo all I could think about was Kevvie’s famous line of
“Fair shake of the sauce bottle”.
As far as I can tell the numbers for Terrigal have not been updated in 3 days.
I know political junkies are a small proportion of the population but the government has a duty to meet our needs
The numbers for Ryde haven’t been updated in 3 days either.
Chris Minns held his first caucus meeting since the election today, I’d assume the Labor candidates for Ryde and Terrigal and Holsworthy weren’t there.
Oh that type of smoking 98.6
OC – I think its the end days…….. For the 2 party duopoly.
Oakeshott Country says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 4:14 pm
As far as I can tell the numbers for Terrigal have not been updated in 3 days.
I know political junkies are a small proportion of the population but the government has a duty to meet our needs
Evan says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 4:22 pm
The numbers for Ryde haven’t been updated in 3 days either.
Chris Minns held his first caucus meeting since the election today, I’d assume the Labor candidates for Ryde and Terrigal and Holsworthy weren’t there.
____________
Fortunately, the timeliness of counting and reporting the vote isn’t up to the govt (unlike parts of the US) – unless limiting the Electoral Commission to a $233m/yr budget ranks as govt intervention in the process.
After 12 years – you would think Labor could fill the Ministry in a week. Apparently not so.
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 4:35 pm
Oh that type of smoking 98.6
____________
Did either of you inhale?
LVT
The end days are indeed here but the duopoly will try to eek out a few more years through preferential voting. I fear we may never again see a party get a 40% primary vote
Instead of 2 party preferred why isn’t it called. “2 party least unpreferred”
Exackerley OC.
If it isn’t Gerard Hayes , who is the reformer we have been waiting for ?
Well apparently, I heard here the other night, that Gerard and the HSU are the driving force behind the Royal commission that is going to concentrate on rorting by the state’s specialists.
He may well be the man to drive the money changers from the temple
Labor almost touched 60% of the primary vote in the last WA election.
Evan @ #28 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 11:43 am
Ditto the Liberal in Terrigal if he scrapes over the line.
With 72% primary vote – I’d say another 6% of the primary vote going should do the trick.
Once you get to 66% you’d have to have close to a majority of seats which are not 2 major party contests.
Oakeshott Country @ #74 Friday, March 31st, 2023 – 4:14 pm
TAV has been added, and the counting finalised at Copacabana Public School and Wagstaffe Hall.
AUKUS discussed by people with some knowledge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOWXGJDg8vk
Frednk I thought Socrates and Andy the r@t would be on your link , instead I got some American dudes.
I would imagine the Ministries will come in on Sunday for the news with the swearing in over the coming days. Given the big 6 have already been announced and Houssos waiting, I would imagine that people like Buttigieg, Donnelly, Moriarty, Murphy, Jackson will come next in the pecking order for senior ministries.
Who will look after all that digital stuff Victor the camera dont lie did? Could be one for Nanva.
Wranslide Surely some long overdue recognition is due for Labor warrior Hugh McDermott?
Lars. Please could we show some respect. It is Dr.
Lars, whats happening with the Senate spot vacated by the late General. Handy Andy Constance gonna get a run?
Don’t know.
Surely there is a Cook by-election coming up. Maybe after the budget ?
Why is there no change (or not much change) in Holsworthy, Ryde and. Terrigal votes for last 3 days?
@Ven
Because the NSW Electoral Commission has not been counting 2CP votes this week for Absent and Postal votes.
From what I gather, they won’t be doing that until tomorrow.
is ranslide joking with his cabenit sugestions there is no way Donnelly will get a cabenit spot maybi labor would want to keep him away from the public as much as posible he is one of the most conservative nsw mps butigiek unlikely also wonder if daley will stay ag hopefuly not
Snappy Tomsays:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 4:39 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 4:35 pm
Oh that type of smoking 98.6
____________
Did either of you inhale?
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98.6 says:
Not marijuana, very few knew of it in the 60s in Australia. LSD was more common.
Or Purple Hearts.
Anyway, in the late 70s two friends invited Ms 98.6 and I over for drinks and offered some marijuana to smoke.
But not being smokers after one or two puffs we gave it away as it didn’t seem to do anything.
I swear, the one and only time I saw, smelt and smoked cannabis.
I presume it was cannabis.
G’day lads, a lot of postals to be counted today in the undecided seats, that might help to establish if Labor can stay ahead in Ryde and make a comeback in Terrigal and Holsworthy. All 3 Labor candidates were at the Caucus meeting yesterday.
In other news, Premier Minns is considering referring Gareth Ward to the Privileges Committee of State Parliament.
Aaron Newton. Daley was just appointed AG. He will be there for a while. He is very happy no doubt. As for Donnelly, I do not know what you have against him. Its time he is given a chance to shine. There are some real heavy hitters and deep deep thinkers to come into the Ministry. People like the good Dr (Hugh).
Hugh McDermott for sure in the Ministry.
Greg Warren definitely too, also Kate Washington.