New South Wales election: late counting

A regularly updated post following the progress of late counting for the New South Wales state election.

Click here for full NSW election results updated live.

Thursday morning

As Antony Green explains, much of the Electoral Commission’s efforts yesterday were spent preparing declaration envelopes for votes that will be counted from today, including the first absents, which have the potential to pull a few rabbits out of the hat for Labor. So far as the seats I’m continuing to follow are concerned, significant progress was made in only three, each involving the resolution of election day and pre-poll booths. As explained below, this clarified the situation in two of them to the extent that I won’t continue providing updates henceforth, and I’m probably showing an abundance of caution in the third.

Kiama. The first batch of postals, which had previously only been reported on the primary vote, were added yesterday on two-party, and broke in Gareth Ward’s favour by 1165-732. That puts him 1367 votes ahead, with only 3000 absents, a handful of provisionals and however many postals to come — with the latter sure to continue favouring him, that settles the matter.

Miranda. After slow progress in the count previously, yesterday saw all the pre-polls added on two-party and the stragglers on the election day vote cleaned up, collectively pushing the Liberal lead from 525 to a safe-and-sound 1841.

Wollondilly. The Bowral pre-poll, which had been strong for the Liberals, was added on two-party, negating advantages to independent Judy Hannan on the newly added election day votes and reducing her lead from 1602 to 1350. The Electoral Commission has received over 4000 postal votes and should get a few hundred more, of which it has counted only 962 – given those counted broke 57-43 to Liberal, they could hope to rein in a good 500 or so. There could also be as many as 3000 absents, and if all goes well for them they could maybe scrape back another 500 there as well, since they performed strongly on them in 2019. That would still leave them short, but not by enough that I am quite willing to shut the door just yet.

Wednesday morning

Yesterday’s counting continued to take care of outstanding election day booths and reduce the number of unreported pre-polls, with no postals added anywhere that I’ve been tracking. Labor’s chances of a majority hinge on strong performances in a few place on absent votes, which won’t start being added until Thursday. Below are updates on seven of the eight seats I identified as seriously in doubt yesterday, the exception being Oatley where there was no further progress.

Holsworthy. Yesterday’s counting bore out Antony Green’s indication that this would continue to drift towards the Liberals: all the pre-polls reported their two-candidate results, for a collective Liberal advantage of 7038-6889, and the one outstanding election day booth, Menai Primary, broke 619-582 in their favour as well. Even without the addition of further postals, which will almost certainly play to their advantage, that increased their lead from 340 to 526. Labor would need a very strong result on absents to remain in the hunt here.

Kiama. Again consistent with what Antony Green was hearing, Gareth Ward stormed into the lead here after winning the Nowra pre-poll 3333-2145, and he further gained 852-680 from the one outstanding election day two-candidate booth (Bomaderry Public). He now leads by 615 after trailing yesterday by 752.

Miranda. The results caught up with my projection here after the Illawong Public election day booth finally reported (though there are still three election day booths without two-party and one without primaries), breaking 1279-818 to the Liberals and pushing their lead out from 71 to 525.

Pittwater. The Narrabeen pre-poll pushed the Liberal lead out from 377 to 664, which the outstanding postals can only widen further. That just leaves the unknown quantity of absents, of which the Electoral Commission was expecting about 3000.

Ryde. The Epping pre-poll broke 873-866 to Liberal, reducing the Labor lead from 241 to 234.

Terrigal. The Woy Woy pre-poll broke 836-683 to Liberal, amounting to a below par swing to Labor of 7.2%. My system continues to project a Labor lead, but that’s probably based on an underestimate of the number of outstanding postals. Labor’s hope remains a strong performance on absents.

Wollondilly. The Camden pre-poll broke 1022-1016 to Liberal, putting independent Judy Hannan’s lead at 1602.

Tuesday morning

Before dealing with the business at hand, you can hear more of my thoughts on the result in discussion with Ben Raue on his podast at his Tally Room website, and in an article for Crikey if you’re a subscriber.

Yesterday’s counting made Labor’s win look rather less emphatic, to the extent that Antony Green – going here off “inside information” – expects them to win no more than 46 seats, placing them one short of a majority. My projections still have Labor ahead in Terrigal and Holsworthy, but the Liberals have hit the lead on the raw count in the former case and remain ahead in the latter, and Antony’s sources evidently have reason to believe they will stay there. What follows is a summary of yesterday’s progress in doubtful seats, which I’ll define here a little more tightly than I do in my results summary, starting with the aforementioned two seats and then proceeding alphabetically.

Terrigal. The Liberals went from 556 behind on the two-party count to 87 ahead after three pre-poll centres broke their way by 5969-5154 and the first postals did so by 350-208. Whereas election day votes swung 13.8% to Labor, so far pre-polls have done so by 11.5% and postals by 10.8%; further, the number of formal election day votes was down from 30,625 to 27,560. My system continues to credit Labor with a lead based on the swing from the votes that are actually in, but if it’s indeed the case that the outstanding votes underperform that, the projected lead is unlikely to hold. On the other hand, Labor performed well above par on absents in 2019 (a Liberal TPP margin of 4.3% as compared with 12.3% across the electorate as a whole), likely to number about 3000, which I would have thought held out hope for them. The Woy Woy pre-poll is still to report – Labor did 3% better there on two-party preferred in 2019 than the pre-polls that have reported so far, but it’s actually located in neighbouring Gosford and the NSWEC’s pre-election estimate was that it would handle a fairly modest 1760 votes. The problem for Labor would appear to be that the number of postals has more than doubled from the last election — another 3000 of those continuing to break nearly 63-37 to the Liberals would boost them by 750.

Holsworthy. The Liberals lead here by 0.7% on the raw two-party count, but there are a lot of pre-poll numbers still to come, and the Liberal margin on those was only 1.4% in 2019 compared with 5.7% across the electorate as a whole. Labor should also get a bit of a boost from absents if their swing is like those of votes cast within the electorate. Again though, my system could be underestimating the advantage remaining to accrue to the Liberals on postals, the first batch of which broke 943-803 in their favour.

Kiama. Labor were looking good here at the close of election night, and they still hold a seemingly handy 752 lead on the two-party count. The reason my system now thinks it’s lineball is that Gareth Ward has scored an impressive 48.6% of the primary vote out of 2192 postals, compared with his overall progress score of 38.5%, and these are yet to report on two-candidate preferred. Antony Green’s sources go further than that, saying he has it in the bag.

Miranda. With only postals added yesterday, there are still a lot of holes in the count here: two election day booths haven’t reported at all, another two have primary vote numbers only, no pre-polls have reported two-party preferred, and only one out of five of them are in on the primary vote. My system’s efforts to fill the gaps credit the Liberals with a lead of 1.0% compared with a raw 0.2% on two-party preferred. As ever, part of the equation is that the first batch of postals broke 726-505 their way.

Oatley. The Liberals’ lead here inflated from 254 to 910 yesterday with the reporting of the large Mortdale pre-poll booth, which broke 4740-4084 their way for a slightly below par swing to Labor of 5.1%. The first batch of postals broke 1329-946 to Liberal and those to come will presumably widen the gap, leaving absents as Labor’s only chance — there should be about 3000 of them, and in 2019 they broke almost evenly in a seat where the Liberals recorded a 6.9% winning margin.

Pittwater. I’m still projecting a narrow independent lead here, but the Liberals have opened up a 377 lead on the two-candidate count after winning the Pittwater pre-poll 3924-3049. They are also smashing it on postals, a factor my system struggles with when they substantially increase in number, as they have done both at this election and in Victoria. Certainly Antony Green’s sources are telling him the Liberals are home and hosed here.

Ryde. Labor’s two-party lead fell here yesterday from 412 to 241, the size of the Liberal winning margin in the large Eastwood pre-poll outweighing their losing margin in the smaller Macquarie Park pre-poll. The swing to Labor in Eastwood was a weak 3.2%. The one outstanding pre-poll and the absents both produced results in line with the overall result in 2019, but Labor would have to be worried about the thought of more than 2000 postals yet to come — the first batch swung 12.2% their way, but still broke 1052-837 to Liberal.

Wollondilly. Climate 200-backed independent Judy Hannan holds a 3.2% margin on the two-candidate count, but she has some weak booths that have so far only reported on the primary vote, which is one reason I’m only projecting her to win by 1.2%. Once again, the large number of outstanding postals may mean my system is selling them short — those counted so far have broken 437-326 their way, with a good 3000 yet to come, and the Liberals did even better on absents in 2019 than they did on postals.

Monday morning

No counting was conducted yesterday, but today we can expect to see progress on the pre-poll voting centres that are yet to report, which is the majority of them; a smaller number of election day stragglers; and the postal votes received up to Friday in seats where they were not reported on the night, of which I count 36. The Electoral Commission has pulled the two-candidate count between independent Alex Greenwich and the Liberals in the seat of Sydney, having determined that Labor rather than the Liberals will finish second. A new count will be conducted, but I’m not clear when the results will be published – clearly it’s academic because Greenwich has easily been re-elected. I have cleared a blockage that was preventing my results system from calling Newcastle for Labor, for whom it is now calling a definite 45 seats.

Sunday morning

My ever cautious results system* is currently giving away 44 seats to Labor, placing it three short of a confirmed majority, but leading in another seven. So the likeliest outcome is that the incoming government will indeed hold a majority. I spent the evening as part of a six-member decision desk at the Nine Network calling seats the hard way, and by the close of business we had it down to nine in doubt: the Labor-versus-Coalition contests of Winston Hills, Goulburn, Holsworthy, Miranda and Oatley; Willoughby, Wollondilly and Pittwater, which are Liberal-held seats that might go independent; and Kiama, where ex-Liberal independent Gareth Ward effortlessly saw off his Liberal opponent as expected, but might fall foul of the swing to Labor. Immediately before it turned off booth matching and switched to raw results, the ABC was calling Winston Hills for the Liberals, but concurred with my system in not yet calling Ryde for Labor, Drummoyne for the Liberals or Balmain for the Greens.

The situation in the Legislative Council is always obscure on the night, with only a third of enrolled voters’ first preference votes counted, all of which are above-the-line votes. For what it’s worth though, Labor is currently clear of eight quotas, the Coalition six, the Greens two and One Nation one. Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers also look to be doing well enough to each win one of the four remaining seats, with the final seat perhaps going to the Coalition or Animal Justice. If that’s the case – and it must be stressed at this early stage that it may not be – that would result in the final seat deciding whether a broadly defined left has a majority with 22 seat out of 42, or if left and right are tied at 21 each.

* If you’re finding it of any value, donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of this page and in the right-hand corner of the results page itself. Between the scale of an election for 93 seats and the confounding extra layer of complexity entailed by optional preferential voting, this involved a rather considerable expenditure of effort on my part, for which I am only rewarded to the extent that my kind donors see fit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,033 comments on “New South Wales election: late counting”

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  1. William I fully agree, a few weeks ago now me and the rest of the sane contributors began engaging and high bandwidth threads in these NSW election sub forums.

    Now a few of the usual suspects have merged over from their open thread homes and largely soiled it

  2. Kiama
    Worth looking at census data on Kiama in relation to general NSW

    More married
    English background
    Way way more religious ( Anglican & Catholic)

    Summary.. ragbag christians

  3. Kiama makes me curious. From its latest creation from 1981 to 2011 it was a safe Labor seat. Then during the Coalition government of 2011-2023 it became much more comfortably Liberal.

    Just take this chart here, its past voting patterns have been changed completely (sourced from the ABC site)

  4. Kiama really shouldn’t be the name of the electorate- just one small part of it.

    Its core population areas are the redneck, elderly rabbles north of the shoalhaven river and west up into the sparsely populated eastern reaches of the southern highlands.

    Albion park and the central built up area of the kiama township are really the only labor friendly preserves of the seat.

  5. Evan @ #897 Wednesday, March 29th, 2023 – 5:42 pm

    Leftiebrawler: You old mate provide a lot of sanity on this thread and the main one too, cheers cobber, would be an honour to have a few beers with you one day.
    Well my friends, they start counting absentees tomorrow and Labor usually does better with those than pre polls and postals, so let’s keep our fingers crossed especially for C@t in relation to Terrigal, and Ryde too and Goulburn(although most seem to think Wendy Tuckerman will prevail).

    Here’s hoping for Ryde and Terrigal.

  6. Gareth Ward has been on all the news programs tonight. My impression – arrogant, self-entitled, rather full of himself.
    Kiama no doubt did well in terms of having a lot of money spent on it during the past 12 years of Coalition Government, and Ward has obviously taken credit for this, but I doubt Kiama will get much out of Minns and Mookey for the next 4 years. Assuming he isn’t convicted, Ward will have zero influence on a minority Labor Government.

  7. I think the naming of “train and drain” state electorates should be more pragmatic and reflect their actual primary population centres.

    I was chatting to Prue last week and she brought up the frustration of the misleading name of her electorate- a semi rural village at the very northern side of her otherwise very suburban, built up seat. It is called Londonderry when in actual fact it should be called St Marys

  8. I doubt Terrigal will get as much money spent on it over the next 4 years as well if they return the Liberal. What is necessary, sure, but not the amount of largesse it has received under the former Coalition government.

  9. C@t, assuming you fall short in Terrigal, it is still an ultra marginal seat, Minns would be well advised to spend a fair bit in the electorate and preselect the Labor candidate maybe 6 months or more before the next election.
    Anyway, really hoping the absentees help out Sam, your candidate.

  10. The last labor government went out with a royal commission into the public health system and the new labor government is coming in with one.
    The Garland report was a fizzer. It will be interesting to see the terms of reference for the new RC – what do they want to know?

  11. Why have a Royal Commission – it just enriches lawyers. Isnt the public service there to give you advice?

    Presumably you can also have an external group or panel to test the public service advice?

  12. it dont realy are about what happind in 2011 12 years have passed and we have had unlike otherdribble triying to remind us of the last labor government i would prefer to focus on labor winning power for the first time in a decadethere is only one minister from that peariod apart from whan and thankfuly after there last performents minns was chosin as leader in stead

  13. William

    What’s the 2PP panning out like now for NSW as a whole after the later counting is included?

    And is my reading of your updates correct that it’s looking most likely to end up:
    Lab 45
    LNP 36-37
    Ind 8-9

  14. Yeah, I agree with Evan, C@t. Even if it turns out to be short of a win, Labor did fantastic in Terrigal this year. An above-the-state-average swing. Which means if this turns out like the 1995-1999 NSW Labor term, will most likely bring it over the line next time in 2027.

    Nobody would have picked up Terrigal as a marginal seat at the last term, being 62-38 to the Liberals, but they definitely are paying attention to it now.

  15. Always remember that Andrews in Victoria removed level crossings and attended other works in traditionally Liberal seats

    Those seats are now very, very comfortably Labor seats with 10% plus margins in Seats such as Box Hill, Ringwood, Bayswater plus others on other lines

    And lers, there was the “night of the long knives”


    Albanese is now restoring the Public Service as frank and fearless

    With Royal Commissions it is the Terms of Reference

    And never ask a question unless you know the answer

    Look at the Banking Royal Commission

  16. Evan @ #908 Wednesday, March 29th, 2023 – 7:01 pm

    C@t, assuming you fall short in Terrigal, it is still an ultra marginal seat, Minns would be well advised to spend a fair bit in the electorate and preselect the Labor candidate maybe 6 months or more before the next election.
    Anyway, really hoping the absentees help out Sam, your candidate.

    We had a 2 election strategy to get the Liberal from the get go. We were just massively surprised on Saturday that the initial count put us in front of him. So, yes, we’ll be breathing down his neck for the next four years. With Sam as our candidate again, as I understand it.

  17. Kirsdarke @ #915 Wednesday, March 29th, 2023 – 7:59 pm

    Yeah, I agree with Evan, C@t. Even if it turns out to be short of a win, Labor did fantastic in Terrigal this year. An above-the-state-average swing. Which means if this turns out like the 1995-1999 NSW Labor term, will most likely bring it over the line next time in 2027.

    Nobody would have picked up Terrigal as a marginal seat at the last term, being 62-38 to the Liberals, but they definitely are paying attention to it now.

    Yes, but they are no longer able to pay attention to it with $$ from the Treasury by dipping into the pork barrel. 😀

  18. Minns looked totally like a Premier today in Minindee, his poll numbers will go up and up.
    The first byelection of this term is bound to be Epping, and it is a genuine marginal seat now.
    I am keeping the faith for Ryde, and a surprise in either Terrigal or Goulburn.

  19. On a brighter note…
    The Liberal Party is poised to finish fourth in Wagga Wagga with a FP vote of a whopping 13%. Thanks forever, Daryl and Gladys xxoo
    There’s also talk of renaming Baylis St to McGirr St.
    McGirr Mall.
    McGirr Public School.
    The Dr Joe McGirr Wagga Wagga Rural Referal Hospital.
    The McGirr Highway.

  20. As for the people of Kiama, the idiot they voted for will have zero influence on the Minns Government, Ward will be a complete also ran in that parliament. I doubt the rest of the crossbench will want a bar of Ward either, he will be a total pariah

  21. Just checked the electoral commission numbers for Terrigal. Libs gained almost 1k early votes more than Labor.

    I seem to recall another poster asking if there may have been a late ‘shift in momentum’ to Labor.

    I also recall once seeing that most early votes are cast in the last couple of days prior to Saturday, so a ‘late swing’ should be at least partly reflected…

  22. I just read that the annual budget of the NSW EC is 233 MILLION P/A.

    WHAT THE F*&K??!

    Almost a quarter of a billion dollars a year budget for a bloody state level EC ???!!

    My god words fail me, especially considering we have fixed terms and thus no sudden suprises.

    The commissioner needs to go and be subject to potential legal proceedings for such extreme negligence.

    Good to see Minns out in Menindee with the local indy- I think he has made another supply and confidence friend in the member for barwon Roy Butler.

    Perrottet et al are a conga line of despicable walking disgraces of the highest order for trying to hide and pretend the latest fish kill was just a non event.

    I’ll gladly forfeit $3.99 thompson seedless grapes in place of a healthy lower murry darling water system.

    There needs to be criminal inquiries galore to investigate and prosecute all LNP (NAT) sweet heart irrigation deals doled out of the last decade to lead to such severe ecological decay.

  23. I struggle to understand the rationale for a royal commission into health funding. Unless there is some issue about malfeasance or corruption perhaps? I guess it will be of interest to see the terms. The doctors clubs presumably wont be happen with an inquiry.

  24. It is a shame about Miranda for Labor. That would have been a good pickup. Its an interesting seat. When it goes hard it really does go hard. Petinos will be pleased naturally. I never really understood why she was turfed so quick out of the Ministry.

  25. The Royal commission into NSW health is being pushed by the Health Services Union who understand all the financial rorts the specialist doctors have been running in state hospitals.
    There are now sufficient young specialist doctors wanting jobs in the public hospitals to wind back some of the outrageous over payments of specialists in hospitals.

  26. Hi Malcolm
    Can you let me know where they are?
    As NSW now has the lowest pay scale for specialists, recruitment is difficult.
    (A quick guide on how to dismiss VMOs would also be helpful)

    I hope the royal commission looks at more than the pay rates of specialists

  27. If Perrottet goes, Craig Chung may be the candidate for Epping. Libs definitely need the guy in Parliament. Would be a tremendous addition to caucus, and along with Scott Yung, are the best hope for outreach to conservative Chinese Australian voters.
    Chung was already promised a clear path for Bennelong by the State Executive, (which he has a good chance of winning) for doing them a favour and running in Kogarah at the last minute.
    Who takes the 2 Lib Senate spots will be interesting as Molan’s spot is one and if Payne is pushed (although she’s the sole bread winner now) that’s another.
    Perrottet and Kean go to Canberra?
    Henskens/Roberts ticket looking promising for Macquarie Street

  28. When will the NSW Liberal party executive learn that Asians don’t automatically vote for a fellow Asian in their seat just because they are all Asians??>

    Such disrespect and racism to assume an educated and articulate bilingual Asian Australian member of the electorate would suddenly abandon their ideological beliefs and vote for a polar opposite candidate based on nothing more than appearances.

  29. Viscount of elections:

    You need to quickly sober up and enter into the real world my friend.

    Next you’ll be claiming Richard Chee Quee is circling for Bennelong Lib preselection.

  30. Alex Smith still at it despite Minns and Labor winning. Her acid tongue about Labor continues in her weekly analysis pieces. What a joke.

    The screaming headlines in the Tele and SMH about all the problems in the State and how Minns needs to get them fixed now is amusing. Before the election the state was in great shape.

  31. “Chung was already promised a clear path for Bennelong by the State Executive, (which he has a good chance of winning) for doing them a favour and running in Kogarah at the last minute.”

    If the Liberals actually cared about getting non-white people into parliament, they would guarantee them A SAFE SEAT instead of a marginal seat they have fight for in tough conditions.

    “Henskens/Roberts ticket looking promising for Macquarie Street”

    Cool, TWO Brendan Nelsons (sacrificial lambs from the North Shore) to run the NSW Liberals in their government to opposition transition. It’s overkill, but it could be funny.

  32. Craig Chung who just got annihilated by the Premier in Kogarah will be the next Liberal MP for Epping? That is the laugh of tonight.
    Chung must be the Liberal equivalent of Kristina Keneally, we will keep finding him any old seat until he actually wins an election?
    As for the idea that Perrottett and Kean are going into the Senate, yeah sure

  33. I’ll defer to your knowledge on North Sydney Oval openers, Leftie.

    I will say the same goes for all groups who aren’t monolithic. In the case of the Chinese Australians, this comprises of many Church-going Hong Kong, Singaporean and Taiwanese who are inherently different from the mainland diaspora.
    Yung and Chung would apply to the former not the latter.
    Labor has done the same with many Indian Australians, however that bloc isn’t as reliable going forward for the same reasons.
    I agree that you can’t paint all groups with the same brush, indeed I’d expect traditional Labor voters in the Muslim community gradually break generationally.
    Inevitably parties have to evolve or they won’t survive. At least in the instance of people of faith who are family orientated and are often but not always, small business owners, regardless of the faith they practice have a lot more in common than difference.
    Equally these same groups could continue to vote Labor as well. Politics is all cyclical- just like life, governments only have so many trips around the sun.

  34. Evan, just to re-iterate the Kogarah annihilation was due to the late notice of Chung’s candidacy and was done as a favour. I don’t think anyone expected him to win the seat.
    Scott is a better campaigner and testament to him for wanting to build a career outside of politics before dipping his toes back in.
    To date, Kogarah is the only seat Craig has actually been a candidate for so that is not quite like Keneally.
    Never say never on the Senate vacancies. Less probable things have occurred and I think the Senate and Upper Houses should be used more for high profile candidates who can campaign more broadly at a macro level.

    SP, with the collapse of both major parties’ primary vote I think the idea of a safe seat is proving to be a false economy.
    Re: Nelson, I guess we’ll never know how he would’ve gone as he never faced an election.

  35. Newcastle Moderate says:
    Tuesday, March 28, 2023 at 10:53 pm

    NM says: IMO, Minns was absolutely correct not to attack Gladys during the campaign.
    98.6 says: We will never know. It just may have given Labor an extra seat or two if he did.
    The difference between minority or majority.

    NM says: I think there is a lot of residual goodwill towards her in the community, judging from the attitudes of my own little circle of family and friends, both pro-LNP and pro-ALP.
    98.6 says: Yes, we had a Mayor in Ipswich like that, who had the highest popularity of any politician in the country for many years, before he went to jail a couple of years ago.

    NM says: Sure, the affair with Maguire was wrong-the secrecy,
    98.6 says: One of the biggest secrets in Australian political history, along side Morrison’s Multiple Ministeries.

    NM says: the favours for his electorate,
    98.6 says: The pork barrelling?

    NM says: the failure to alert ICAC to his corrupt conduct.
    98.6 says: Withholding evidence? Collusion?

    NM says: I’m sure ICAC will eventually make some kind of finding against her.
    98.6 says: So you’re sure she has done something wrong .

    NM says: But I think the wider public does not view Gladys as corrupt,
    98.6 says: Maybe only the WIDER public but what about the rest?

    NM says: but rather as a naive victim who was groomed by Maguire.
    98.6 says: A 50 something woman who is the Premier of NSW is a naive victim being groomed.
    You make her out to be a school girl.

    NM says: Plus she was widely regarded as a competent premier, who did a pretty good job of getting NSW through the pandemic
    98.6 says: She and her government let COVID run rampant in Australia by the fiasco that was the RUBY PRINCESS. Ask the people from the western suburbs if she did a good job.

    NM says: Attacking Gladys might have pleased many on here, but not the people whose votes Labor needed to flip. If Gladys’s indiscretions had not come to light, and she was still the premier on March 25th, I doubt we’d be talking about an ALP government tonight.
    98.6 says: Maybe. Maybe not. Thank god we don’t have to worry about, what ifs anymore.

  36. leftieBrawler says:
    Wednesday, March 29, 2023 at 11:18 pm
    Long live the North Sydney bears!! My only great passion to eclipse the Labor party
    98.6 replies: For your sake, I hope the North Sydney Bears never start their own political party !

  37. Viscount of Elections: Judging by Craig Chung’s frequent appearances on The Drum, he is the typical arrogant Liberal with an elevated sense of his own self-importance.
    As for Scott Yang, he can thank that infamous Michael Daley video for almost beating the now Premier in 2019.

  38. “SP, with the collapse of both major parties’ primary vote I think the idea of a safe seat is proving to be a false economy.”

    That’s not an actual response to my point. At least the ALP can be bothered to run non-white candidates in heartland seats (Liverpool, Cabramatta, Macquarie Fields, Bankstown, Fairfield, Mt Druitt, Strathfield). I guess the closest the Liberals get to this is Tina Ayyad *barely* winning Holsworthy (and she still might not!). The Liberals screw over non-white people in terms of representation even more than they do white women.

  39. Chris: Kiama is full of very stupid people , all you can conclude. Ward should not be in politics, I sincerely hope his suspension from parliament remains, Minns has certainly said Ward will be frozen out for the next 4 years.

  40. wranslide says:
    Wednesday, March 29, 2023 at 10:44 pm
    Alex Smith still at it despite Minns and Labor winning. Her acid tongue about Labor continues in her weekly analysis pieces. What a joke.

    98.6 says: Alex is hurting ! Show some sympathy. She might have a bad heart.

    wranslide says:
    The screaming headlines in the Tele and SMH about all the problems in the State and how Minns needs to get them fixed now is amusing. Before the election the state was in great shape.

    98.6 says: Same, same when Labor won federally. Watching Question Time today every question from the opposition was shot down in flames by the PM and his Ministers simply reverting back to what the coalition stuffed up during their 9 years in office.
    Only being in government for 10 months any accusation can be shafted back to Dutton and Morrison.
    This could go on for at least another 12 months if not more.
    Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has used this tactic for 3 elections now and it works a treat every time.
    One term LNP premier Campbell Newman was a gift to Labor which keeps on giving.

  41. wranslide says:
    Wednesday, March 29, 2023 at 10:44 pm

    Alex Smith still at it despite Minns and Labor winning. Her acid tongue about Labor continues in her weekly analysis pieces. What a joke.

    The screaming headlines in the Tele and SMH about all the problems in the State and how Minns needs to get them fixed now is amusing. Before the election the state was in great shape.

    IIRC, shortly after Labor won govt in SA (ambulance services being one issue), that new govt/premier came under media pressure to fix the ambulances basically immediately…

    “He’s had 3 days!”

    Almost a quote from a breakfast tv person.

    I kid you not.

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