The fortnightly Essential Research poll was published yesterday, showing the following:
• On voting intention, primary vote numbers inclusive of a 7% undecided component have Labor and the Coalition on 32% each, which is one down in Labor’s case and two up in the Coalition’s. The Greens are down two to 12% and One Nation are up one to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 44%, with 7% undecided.
• Leader favourability ratings, in which respondents are asked to rate the leaders from zero to ten (distinct from a more conventional approval question that is asked of the Prime Minister once a month), offer the most distinctive evidence yet for a softening of Anthony Albanese’s position: 40% now give him a rating of seven to ten, down seven on last month, with 28% scoring him from zero to three, up six.
• For the first time since Labor came to power, a “national mood” question records a net negative result, with 42% rating that the country is on the wrong track, up five on a month ago, compared with 38% for the right track, down five.
• A series of three questions on tax policy includes one on “reducing tax concessions for people with superannuation balances over $3 million”, which found 50% supportive and 19% opposed. Forty-seven per cent rate themselves unlikely to have $3 million in super when they are old enough to access it along with 23% for not that likely, while 8% think it very likely and 15% fairly likely. “Tightening up the rules around family trusts to make it more difficult for wealthy families to split their incomes and reduce their tax” was supported by 55% and opposed by 15%, and cancelling stage three tax cuts has 42% support with 22% opposed.
The poll was covered Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141. Other poll findings around the place:
• An additional result from this week’s Newspoll has support for an Indigenous voice at 53%, down three on a month ago, with opposition up one to 38%. Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll also had a supplementary question on the voice, which had support at 58%, down two from December and January, and opposition up two to 42%.
• The quarterly True Issues survey of issue salience by JWS Research finds concern over the cost of living continuing to raise, now rated as one of the three main issues by 47%, up from 44% in October and just 16% a year ago. Housing and interest rates is up seven since October to 26%; health has steadied after a long decline as the pandemic faded from the limelight, now up two to 31%; and environment and climate change is down three to 23%. The survey was conducted February 24 to 27 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intentions have Labor on 38%, the Coalition on 33.5% and the Greens on 11.5%, with Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 56.6-43.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday; as usual, the sample is not specified.
Enough Already,
wranslide has no right to try and intimidate you.
L’arse:
“Ahem” (quoting me)
“ I am reminded of Dutton’s equally idiotic “buy them off the shelf” remark at NPC. There is no shelf. No country that can makeSSNs to the required standard has spare capacity to make them for us.”
___
you still don’t get it do you?
1. there is no ‘off the shelf’ purchase of a new sub (which is what Dutton was clearly talking about);
2. i have already said the one thing that takes me by surprise, in all of this (assuming the rumours are right) is that America is prepared to reduce its existing order of battle by between 3 and 5 subs by selling us Virginia class subs (probably Block IIIs – which are only 4 to 10 years old as a class of boat as of now). That is truly astonishing, given just how far America is already behind its own requirements – a situation which will only get worse as air is forced to retire its remaining Los Angeles class. 5 boats represents 25% of the total Virginia class fleet in service as of today.
America is meant to have a total of 66 SSNs in service. they are a dozen behind that already and with 30 odd Los Angles Boats due to retire within years (although about a dozen may be able to get a 10 year life extension apparently) that leaves them very short of boats to ‘counter China’ as it already is. So there it is – for those reasons i never thought an America would do this. Yet, neither did Dutton: he was talking about America building new Block Vs for us to by ‘off the shelf’ – which was what I called idiotic.
just stop lying about my posts L’arse.
Macarthur. Enough Already. Insert future name change. No stats on posts. Just observations. I think its pretty obvious to the naked eye. I had thought you were going to ease up on your posts. I misread. You were going to ease up on your purity tests. Thank you for your service.
L’arse:
“Ahem” (quoting me)
“ I am reminded of Dutton’s equally idiotic “buy them off the shelf” remark at NPC. There is no shelf. No country that can makeSSNs to the required standard has spare capacity to make them for us.”
___
you still don’t get it do you?
1. there is no ‘off the shelf’ purchase of a new sub (which is what Dutton was clearly talking about);
2. i have already said the one thing that takes me by surprise, in all of this (assuming the rumours are right) is that America is prepared to reduce its existing order of battle by between 3 and 5 subs by selling us Virginia class subs (probably Block IIIs – which are only 4 to 10 years old as a class of boat as of now). That is truly astonishing, given just how far America is already behind its own requirements – a situation which will only get worse as air is forced to retire its remaining Los Angeles class. 5 boats represents 25% of the total Virginia class fleet in service as of today.
America is meant to have a total of 66 SSNs in service. they are a dozen behind that already and with 30 odd Los Angles Boats due to retire within years (although about a dozen may be able to get a 10 year life extension apparently) that leaves them very short of boats to ‘counter China’ as it already is. So there it is – for those reasons i never thought an America would do this. Yet, neither did Dutton: he was talking about America building new Block Vs for us to by ‘off the shelf’ – which was what I called idiotic.
just stop lying about my posts L’arse.
The US has 66 nuclear submarines? No wonder people in the Appalachians have no teeth.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/eX6zlM2e4Fc
Team Katich @ #2700 Monday, March 13th, 2023 – 10:05 pm
Yep, I want one for small stuff.
But – you know, money.
Complete vindication for Gary Lineker, and a humiliating backdown for the head honchos at the BBC:
“Gary Lineker is to return to BBC screens this weekend after reaching a deal with the corporation
The BBC will begin an independent review of its social media guidelines, focusing on how it applies to freelancers outside news – like Lineker
Lineker takes to Twitter to say he is “immeasurably proud” to work for the BBC and “cannot wait to get back in the MOTD chair”
The BBC’s current social media guidance will remain in place while the review is carried out
Director general Tim Davie acknowledges it contains “grey areas” and says enforcing impartiality is a difficult balancing act
He says he has not bowed to pressure from one political party or another”
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/entertainment-arts-64938252
The last word, though, should go to Lineker:
“A final thought: however difficult the last few days have been, it simply doesn’t compare to having to flee your home from persecution or war to seek refuge in a land far away. It’s heartwarming to have seen the empathy towards their plight from so many of you.”
Gary Lineker
C@tmomma @ Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:06 pm:
“Enough Already,
wranslide has no right to try and intimidate you.”
========
C@tmomma, thank you. Wranslide does exhibit the typical tendency of those on the wrong side of an argument to play the man and not the ball. Consequently, I don’t find him that intimidating. 😉
South:
“ Is the shallowness of the northern waters around darwin and issue for subs, because you need to disapear in the movement box quickly when deploying, or just a submarine preference to always be over under and avoid running at surface?”
This is simply not true. The breakwater at HMAS Coonawarra sits 50M from the main channel at the very mouth of Darwin harbour and the average depth of that channel at low tide is 36M: far deeper than any navigation channel that close to a potential submarine birth.
The historical problems with Darwin relates to WW2 when it was thought that the littoral waters of the sea surrounding the Port of Darwin may be too shallow (average depth 80M) if the Japanese decided to invade or at least send destroyers in with depth charges (having first gained air supremacy over the RAAF). in such an event the submarines could end up wedged. hence it was thought advisable to base them elsewhere and just patrol those waters from time to time.
The strategic position now is entirely different. Our submarines – now and in to the future – are meant to conduct forward operations hundreds of miles away from Darwin, sometimes even thousands of miles away. conducting sea denial operations. in that context using Darwin not as a ‘home base’ but as a FOB (so capable of undertaking replenishment, crew rotation and light maintenance between individual missions) makes sense because – the case of a SSK fleet (cruising speed in transit around an average of 7 knots) up to three weeks transit time per mission is saved and hence the time ‘on station’ is doubled.
A slight modification to the existing break-wall – in combination with covered sub pens and the dredging of a side channel from that break-wall to the main channel could see SSK subs slip in and out of that base under water and hence undetected by satellite etc.
March 13, 2023 at 9:07 pm
Nath
” Pensioners eating cat food.”
Shades of Bronwyn and the kero baths
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:19 pm
South:
“ Is the shallowness of the northern waters around darwin and issue for subs, because you need to disapear in the movement box quickly when deploying, or just a submarine preference to always be over under and avoid running at surface?”
This is simply not true. The breakwater at HMAS Coonawarra sits 50M from the main channel at the very mouth of Darwin harbour and the average depth of that channel at low tide is 36M: far deeper than any navigation channel that close to a potential submarine birth.
The historical problems with Darwin relates to WW2 when it was thought that the littoral waters of the sea surrounding the Port of Darwin may be too shallow (average depth 80M) if the Japanese decided to invade or at least send destroyers in with depth charges (having first gained air supremacy over the RAAF). in such an event the submarines could end up wedged. hence it was thought advisable to base them elsewhere and just patrol those waters from time to time.
The strategic position now is entirely different. Our submarines – now and in to the future – are meant to conduct forward operations hundreds of miles away from Darwin, sometimes even thousands of miles away. conducting sea denial operations. in that context using Darwin not as a ‘home base’ but as a FOB (so capable of undertaking replenishment, crew rotation and light maintenance between individual missions) makes sense because – the case of a SSK fleet (cruising speed in transit around an average of 7 knots) up to three weeks transit time per mission is saved and hence the time ‘on station’ is doubled.
A slight modification to the existing break-wall – in combination with covered sub pens and the dredging of a side channel from that break-wall to the main channel could see SSK subs slip in and out of that base under water and hence undetected by satellite etc.
____________
Might also be good to check who is leasing the port…
BTW, Coonawarra is an excellent name for a base – gets better with age!
Dutton point 3
– the relationship at a professional level between US agencies and Australian ones is largely seamless as between presidential administrations.
I think this is a fair description of how things ‘used to be’, but I don’t think that is the case going forward. Not with the Republican Party in the state that it is. Trump was not just ‘more of the same’, but only with slightly different emphasises as a matter of detail and degree. His political spawn seem even more unpredictable and frankly very likely mad and unreliable. the politicisation at a professional service level in Washington is already notorious. trump mad it worse, and his ‘children’ would likely be even worse in that regard.
Snappy: “Might also be good to check who is leasing the port…”
Yeah but that’s only for a hundred years. So there’s a chance.
“ Might also be good to check who is leasing the port…”
Use google maps. The Port of Darwin is an actually situated in a different location: close enough to be troubling, but in a different location.
Some here may yawn with boredom, but the sufferings of those referred to in reports like this deserve witness:
“The rights group Human Rights Watch (HRW) says Russia’s war in Ukraine is severely traumatizing children, specifically those living in orphanages.
The HRW report released on Monday says there are more than 105,000 children living in residential institutions — the largest number in Europe after Russia.
“Ukrainian children who were housed in Soviet-era institutions now face extreme risks due to Russia’s war on Ukraine,” said Bill Van Esveld, associate director at HRW.”
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-situation-in-bakhmut-remains-difficult-fighting-continues/a-64965177
Dutton point no. 4. Spoiler, this rally is a FMD moment.
Apparently the ‘new technology’ of being able to seal the reactor shut for 30 years is remarkable because you can literally sail around the world for 30 years and only have to deal with the waste.
The FMD moment in that is that this blithely ignores the two year long + process to service the nuclear technology that has to be undertaken every 7 years (Virginia class blocks 1 to 3) or 10 years (Blocks 4 & 5).
Also refuelling isnt actually such a big deal for LEU reactors. See my early post this evening.
Well I predicted…
timbo UK; 2 Astutes; 8 SSNR; 2026
If we go with the Yanks it could be disastrous if the Republicans say no either soon after the announcement or even months/years down the track.
What do we do then?
After all the Republicans are as mad as a magpie in swooping season.
Right, Dutton point no 5 – which is a biggy.
Barracuda needed to be refuelled every 7 to 8 years ‘from memory’ (it is actually once every 10 years) and it had to go back to france for two years and hence be out of service.
OK. … deep breath.
1. Refuelling is only a three day process (but the associated water recycling takes 3-4 months).
2. the subs – worst case scenario – would only have to go back to france for that entire process for a 6 month round trip.
3. Either, while in France or back in australia – these subs need to be overhauled for about 12 months.
4. If we undertake refuelling and recycling in australia (like we do for the ANSTO reactor) then that process can be done concurrently with the general ‘once in ten year’ overhaul. So the boat would return to service after 12 months (which is much better than the Collins class BTW).
5. Even if these processes are done consecutively – the boats would only be out of service for 18-19 months as opposed to the two to three year time out of service that AUKUS subs have to undertake their own 7 or 10 year overhaul processes. Something that Dutton simply ignores, or is actually ignorant of.
A circuitous route to Washington:
[‘San Diego: A flight to carry Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to a major defence announcement has highlighted Australia’s key partnerships in the region by starting in India, landing in Japan and ending in the United States.
The Royal Australian Air Force planned a long route from New Delhi to a refuelling stop in Tokyo so the prime minister and his delegation would remain outside Chinese airspace.
While RAAF aircraft have flown to China in the past, such as for the visits by prime ministers in 2014 and 2016 and Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s trip to Beijing in December, the government considered it better with the AUKUS flight to choose a route that did not require approval from Chinese authorities.
But the flight traversed the South China Sea in a reminder of the importance to Australia of open flight paths and freedom of navigation over a region where China has claimed sea borders that its neighbours dispute.
As a result, the flight path of the KC-30A aircraft illustrated the geopolitics in play in the AUKUS agreement to develop nuclear-powered submarines despite China’s objections.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/from-india-to-japan-and-the-us-pm-s-flight-path-takes-on-symbolic-meaning-20230313-p5crjn.html
Bonne nuit.
Mavis
I was never in favour of spending “untold billions” on SSNs. SSKs were getting so expensive I did favour shifting over to SSNs, but like Andrew I would have far preferred the cheaper French Suffrens which would have been more than adequate for our needs. Defence has gotten its way in getting their most expensive option.
There is no prospect any country is going to attempt to invade Australia in the near future, and subs are more a deterrent from hostile nations striking us or blockading us, which would greatly damage our economy and way of life. I support Australia being more self reliant in being able to defend against that. SSNs are part of that. Warships seem to be of declining utility. (Better relationships with our neighbours are useful too!)
Like many others, I have reservations about the way AUKUS is being delivered. It is tying us ever more closely to the US military system. In my previous comments US subs were my least preferred option for that reason.
Ten years ago I wouldn’t have cared about this stuff. Xi rising to power in China has changed my view. I don’t think we can do nothing now. Decisions now will determine our situation in 2030, just as stalled investment decisions by Abbott in 2013 put us in this mess now in 2023.
Like Andrew I never expected USN would agree to selling/leasing Virginias to the RAN or anyone else. So that part of AUKUS, if as reported, was a genuine surprise to me. Now we have been given the offer, I think there is no way around accepting the Virginias politically.
I make no apology for criticising Dutton’s “off the shelf” comments as stupid. At the time they were made they were stupid. The situation as reported has changed now but it is only because the USN program is being changed with the promise of Australian investment in their build capacity.
So we are proceeding on AUKUS with what by my calculations was the second most expensive option (SSNR). Better than the most expensive option (SSNX) but not cheap. The UK option promises a much higher proportion of local jobs than the US SSNX, which is good. But this isn’t my decision so don’t blame me for it.
All those caveats and negatives being said, if Australia really does join in a joint SSN building project tomorrow morning, that could be good, depending on the division of cost, jobs and output. If we are to be bound so closely together, I think we also need a much clearer binding treaty setting our defense protection and responsibilities too. We shouldn’t gain NATO like spending commitments without NATO like protection.
That’s all from me till I see the substance in the morning. Reportedly being broadcast at 8am AEST.
Timbo: what are your views – speaking as an ex submariner – of my proposal (which isn’t actually mine, Luke Gosling, MHR has actually written articles in ASPI about this) – of turning HMAS Coonawarra, Darwin into a FOB so as to shorten transit times to and from patrolling station (and similarly use Townsville as another FOB)?
“ I think we also need a much clearer binding treaty setting our defense protection and responsibilities too. We shouldn’t gain NATO like spending commitments without NATO like protection.”
This.
Only one more sleep to go. 🙂
Dutton – point no.6
AUKUS = deterrence.
No without NATO like protections it doesn’t. It simply adds all our northern airforce bases, Port Kembla and HMAS Base West in Perth to join Pine Gap as genuine first strike nuclear targets.
HSBC are going to buy the British subsidiaries of SVB.
“The US market has taken a full 1% off expectations for Fed Reserve interest rates at the end of 2023.
On Thursday it was 5.5%, now at 4.5%.”
Letting a few banks burn is pretty powerful disinflationary medicine.
Yep. One sleep until the catastrophe … (but hopefully better than that. Inshallah).
With only a minimum of thought and research, it would make more sense if we are to acquire SSKs.
But as that now seems very unlikely, and one of the main reasons put forward for getting Nuclear boats was their quick transit times to f’n anywhere and consequently more time on station, it shouldn’t matter where they are located.
These things are mightily expensive, losing one would be a catastrophe if say a long range missile came down the conning tower whilst in port, perhaps further south might be a consideration.
It’s going to be hard enough rustling up enough crew for these behemoths
without isolating said crew from families and friends who are likely to be predominantly from southern states.
So a lot to consider.
Shorter answer – I dunno, maybe.
That previous post was in answer to Andrew_Earlwood
So AUKUS is a press release plus billions of almost entirely wasted taxpayers dollars flooding to the US and UK for decades yeah? Whooo hoooo for bipartisan conservative politics in Australia.
WeWantPaul , yep how good are we?
timbo says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:40 pm
Well I predicted…
timbo UK; 2 Astutes; 8 SSNR; 2026
If we go with the Yanks it could be disastrous if the Republicans say no either soon after the announcement or even months/years down the track.
What do we do then?
____________
The big disaster: both you and I will have missed with our predictions!
Well I predicted…
Socrates UK; 2 Astutes; 8 SSNR; 2025
I expect to be way out. Night all.
Bloomberg seems to think we’re building a new sub with the Yanks and Brits.
Biden will be speaking about black monday….at 9am
“ With only a minimum of thought and research, it would make more sense if we are to acquire SSKs.”
It was SSK operations that I had in mind for Darwin as a FOB. Given that we may still be operating v Collins class subs for another 20 years, despite what is announced tomorrow, and ‘this decade’ is the one ‘experts’ say we are most strategically vulnerable in, shouldn’t we doing all we can now to ‘plug the gap’? i would have thought placing long range cruise missiles (with the navalised active homing sensors for ship attacks) onto our collins class and sending them foward as much as possible was an obvious step to take ‘in the interim’.
I predicted last week:
UK: two initial Astute class boats (from 2028), followed by 2 more ‘evolved’ Astutes built in the UK, followed by 3-4 evolved Astutes build in Adelaide, with SSNRs being built in Adelaide thereafter (ie in the late 2030s-40s).
OK, L’arse: here’s your big chance! I clearly got that bit of punditry wrong! Do your worst!
Andrew_Earlwood
Australia isn’t really serious about war.
If we were we’d have more than a lean 5000 infantry force and we’d be thinking HARD about how to fight a war with a contested airspace. That’s what ukraine is doing, and it’s showing the importance of artillery and rockets. And we don’t have enough of either.
How many artillery shells and fuses could Australia make per week? not enough, we’re starting to understand that’s a thing we need to do. But ukraine needs 10,000 a day.
We have many gaps. Personnel is another. We need to reward service, like free uni for doing 3 years.
“WeWantPaul says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 11:17 pm
So AUKUS is a press release plus billions of almost entirely wasted taxpayers dollars flooding to the US and UK for decades yeah? Whooo hoooo for bipartisan conservative politics in Australia.”
Yep, nothing like a Greens government to make you feel truly safe in the world…. Whooo hoooo
Still, never ever forget: Libs and Labs ARE NOT the same!… For the Labs the best defence is a solid defence; for the Libs the best defence is attack….. Very different, eh?
“south says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 11:52 pm
Andrew_Earlwood
Australia isn’t really serious about war.”
The ADF primary role is defence, not attack.
Asian share markets generally fell today but didn’t panic. European markets are down by more than 2%. That’s bad but, again, I don’t see true panic.
Let’s see whether we have learned the lessons of the GFC….
“nath says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:09 pm
The US has 66 nuclear submarines? No wonder people in the Appalachians have no teeth.”
Yep, it must be those pesky nuclear submarines, leaving their toxic waste behind as they navigate through the peaks and valleys of the Appalachians…
Mavissays:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:45 pm
There’s a slight problem flying from New Delhi to China. There are a couple of small hills in your way. As a result international air routes avoid these hills and travel southeast over Thailand. From there the route traveled to Japan would be dictated mainly by the winds along the different available routes.
No airline flys direct from New Delhi to Beijing, they all stop at least once.
The route the PM’s plane flew followed international routes.
Those small hills are usually called the Himalayas and airlines don’t fly over them because they can’t descend to 10,000 feet in a decompression emergency.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:09 pm
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/eX6zlM2e4Fc
………………………………………………………………………………..
Clicked on this as you prompted to see some shorts.
An hour later…………………..
The Cranston kids should get a family award for bums of the week:
https://www.9news.com.au/national/lauren-anne-cranston-found-guilty-australian-tax-office-fraud/5d46a6a0-93e3-4e38-abf6-0758cbf537b2
“Ukrainian and Russian casualties mount as battle for central Bakhmut rages”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/13/ukrainian-and-russian-casualties-mount-as-battle-for-central-bakhmut-rages
The battle for Bakhmut has become a race to see who slaughters more enemy soldiers. The loser is expected to face a serious backlash at home. But there is a difference: The Ukrainians are defending their home and are ready to face heavy losses in order to do so, they know that if they lose, they will also lose their liberty. For the Russians, if they lose, they will be back home, to the safety of their house and the warmth and love of their family….
BIG DIFFERENCE!
98.6 @ #2746 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 2:38 am
Soz. 😉
Alpo @ #2744 Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 – 12:39 am
And not the massive tax cuts that the Republicans give away to the wealthy so that there’s no money for low income dental care. 😐