The fortnightly Essential Research poll was published yesterday, showing the following:
• On voting intention, primary vote numbers inclusive of a 7% undecided component have Labor and the Coalition on 32% each, which is one down in Labor’s case and two up in the Coalition’s. The Greens are down two to 12% and One Nation are up one to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 44%, with 7% undecided.
• Leader favourability ratings, in which respondents are asked to rate the leaders from zero to ten (distinct from a more conventional approval question that is asked of the Prime Minister once a month), offer the most distinctive evidence yet for a softening of Anthony Albanese’s position: 40% now give him a rating of seven to ten, down seven on last month, with 28% scoring him from zero to three, up six.
• For the first time since Labor came to power, a “national mood” question records a net negative result, with 42% rating that the country is on the wrong track, up five on a month ago, compared with 38% for the right track, down five.
• A series of three questions on tax policy includes one on “reducing tax concessions for people with superannuation balances over $3 million”, which found 50% supportive and 19% opposed. Forty-seven per cent rate themselves unlikely to have $3 million in super when they are old enough to access it along with 23% for not that likely, while 8% think it very likely and 15% fairly likely. “Tightening up the rules around family trusts to make it more difficult for wealthy families to split their incomes and reduce their tax” was supported by 55% and opposed by 15%, and cancelling stage three tax cuts has 42% support with 22% opposed.
The poll was covered Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141. Other poll findings around the place:
• An additional result from this week’s Newspoll has support for an Indigenous voice at 53%, down three on a month ago, with opposition up one to 38%. Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll also had a supplementary question on the voice, which had support at 58%, down two from December and January, and opposition up two to 42%.
• The quarterly True Issues survey of issue salience by JWS Research finds concern over the cost of living continuing to raise, now rated as one of the three main issues by 47%, up from 44% in October and just 16% a year ago. Housing and interest rates is up seven since October to 26%; health has steadied after a long decline as the pandemic faded from the limelight, now up two to 31%; and environment and climate change is down three to 23%. The survey was conducted February 24 to 27 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intentions have Labor on 38%, the Coalition on 33.5% and the Greens on 11.5%, with Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 56.6-43.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday; as usual, the sample is not specified.