Polls: Essential Research, Voice polling, JWS Research issues survey (open thread)

Further signs of declining support for Anthony Albanese and the Indigenous voice, though both remain well in front.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll was published yesterday, showing the following:

• On voting intention, primary vote numbers inclusive of a 7% undecided component have Labor and the Coalition on 32% each, which is one down in Labor’s case and two up in the Coalition’s. The Greens are down two to 12% and One Nation are up one to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 44%, with 7% undecided.

• Leader favourability ratings, in which respondents are asked to rate the leaders from zero to ten (distinct from a more conventional approval question that is asked of the Prime Minister once a month), offer the most distinctive evidence yet for a softening of Anthony Albanese’s position: 40% now give him a rating of seven to ten, down seven on last month, with 28% scoring him from zero to three, up six.

• For the first time since Labor came to power, a “national mood” question records a net negative result, with 42% rating that the country is on the wrong track, up five on a month ago, compared with 38% for the right track, down five.

• A series of three questions on tax policy includes one on “reducing tax concessions for people with superannuation balances over $3 million”, which found 50% supportive and 19% opposed. Forty-seven per cent rate themselves unlikely to have $3 million in super when they are old enough to access it along with 23% for not that likely, while 8% think it very likely and 15% fairly likely. “Tightening up the rules around family trusts to make it more difficult for wealthy families to split their incomes and reduce their tax” was supported by 55% and opposed by 15%, and cancelling stage three tax cuts has 42% support with 22% opposed.

The poll was covered Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141. Other poll findings around the place:

• An additional result from this week’s Newspoll has support for an Indigenous voice at 53%, down three on a month ago, with opposition up one to 38%. Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll also had a supplementary question on the voice, which had support at 58%, down two from December and January, and opposition up two to 42%.

• The quarterly True Issues survey of issue salience by JWS Research finds concern over the cost of living continuing to raise, now rated as one of the three main issues by 47%, up from 44% in October and just 16% a year ago. Housing and interest rates is up seven since October to 26%; health has steadied after a long decline as the pandemic faded from the limelight, now up two to 31%; and environment and climate change is down three to 23%. The survey was conducted February 24 to 27 from a sample of 1000.

• The latest weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intentions have Labor on 38%, the Coalition on 33.5% and the Greens on 11.5%, with Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 56.6-43.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday; as usual, the sample is not specified.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,754 comments on “Polls: Essential Research, Voice polling, JWS Research issues survey (open thread)”

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  1. How could SVB have been allowed to construct such an unbalanced and exposed balance sheet? Where were the regulators?

    After the 2008 financial crisis, the US Congress enacted the Dodd-Frank Act, which imposed far more stringent and intrusive regulation on all US banks, including tough capital and liquidity requirements and regular stress testing for all banks with more than $US50 billion of assets.

    In 2018, however, Donald Trump (in the midst of his war on regulation of all kinds) proudly signed a bill that rolled back most of those requirements for banks with less than $US250 billion of assets, leaving only about a dozen of the largest and most systemically important banks required to meet the Dodd-Frank rules.

    Trump, and many Republicans, pondered aloud at the time about getting rid of Dodd-Frank even for the largest banks but thankfully didn’t get around to it. The core of the US system is, as are most banking systems elsewhere (including Australia’s), stringently regulated, soundly capitalised, holds high-quality liquidity and is regularly and rigorously stress-tested.

    SVB was approaching $US200 billion of assets in 2018 and was one of the banks which lobbied hard to be free of the regulations.

    One of the key requirements of those regulations was that banks hold enough high-quality liquidity to sustain a run for 30 days. SVB didn’t last 48 hours. It is inevitable that the question of how sub-$US250 billion banks should be regulated will be revisited.

    The SVB collapse should be contained and the decision by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Fed chair Jerome Powell and the FDIC’s Martin Gruenberg to make a “systemic risk exception” and guarantee all SVB depositors, whether insured or not, will be “made whole” ought to reduce the risk of contagion. The same protections will apply for Signature Bank, which was closed on Sunday (US time) by New York state regulators. The Fed is also making funding available to any bank experiencing liquidity issues in the fragile post-SVB collapse environment.

    The episode, regardless of discrete impacts the collapse will have on other institutions and financial markets, is a reminder that big shifts in monetary policy do break things.


    Here endeth the lesson for today. 😐

  2. Perhaps the despicable Dutton, playing crass politics as always, could offer Budget support by bipartisan support for the revision of Franking Credit legislation and the walking back of tax cuts the government is committed to courtesy of the defeated Liberal Party and their failed bribing of the electorate

    Instead of cutting NDIS, impacting vulnerable people in our society

    Dutton is a born slime, beneath contempt

    Whilst it won’t happen, the seat being of the Liberal Party “me, me, me god bothering” demographic (what a contradiction), I would love to see Aston lost to send Dutton the message that he is unAustralian

  3. Mavis says:
    Monday, March 13, 2023 at 8:10 pm

    Baz & Elvis, after watching trailer this one is the worst of a long line of comic book interpretation from Baz.. his lack of talent isn’t overcome by massive PR

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