The fortnightly Essential Research poll was published yesterday, showing the following:
• On voting intention, primary vote numbers inclusive of a 7% undecided component have Labor and the Coalition on 32% each, which is one down in Labor’s case and two up in the Coalition’s. The Greens are down two to 12% and One Nation are up one to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 44%, with 7% undecided.
• Leader favourability ratings, in which respondents are asked to rate the leaders from zero to ten (distinct from a more conventional approval question that is asked of the Prime Minister once a month), offer the most distinctive evidence yet for a softening of Anthony Albanese’s position: 40% now give him a rating of seven to ten, down seven on last month, with 28% scoring him from zero to three, up six.
• For the first time since Labor came to power, a “national mood” question records a net negative result, with 42% rating that the country is on the wrong track, up five on a month ago, compared with 38% for the right track, down five.
• A series of three questions on tax policy includes one on “reducing tax concessions for people with superannuation balances over $3 million”, which found 50% supportive and 19% opposed. Forty-seven per cent rate themselves unlikely to have $3 million in super when they are old enough to access it along with 23% for not that likely, while 8% think it very likely and 15% fairly likely. “Tightening up the rules around family trusts to make it more difficult for wealthy families to split their incomes and reduce their tax” was supported by 55% and opposed by 15%, and cancelling stage three tax cuts has 42% support with 22% opposed.
The poll was covered Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141. Other poll findings around the place:
• An additional result from this week’s Newspoll has support for an Indigenous voice at 53%, down three on a month ago, with opposition up one to 38%. Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll also had a supplementary question on the voice, which had support at 58%, down two from December and January, and opposition up two to 42%.
• The quarterly True Issues survey of issue salience by JWS Research finds concern over the cost of living continuing to raise, now rated as one of the three main issues by 47%, up from 44% in October and just 16% a year ago. Housing and interest rates is up seven since October to 26%; health has steadied after a long decline as the pandemic faded from the limelight, now up two to 31%; and environment and climate change is down three to 23%. The survey was conducted February 24 to 27 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intentions have Labor on 38%, the Coalition on 33.5% and the Greens on 11.5%, with Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 56.6-43.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday; as usual, the sample is not specified.
Sceptic says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 8:04 pm
Snappy Tom says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 7:51 pm
Sceptic says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 7:50 pm
Dutton.. ex defence minister gets it so wrong..
He claimed Suffren nuclear needs to be refused after 6-7 years, it’s 10 years, he claimed refuelling takes 2 years, it takes 1 WEEK!
____________
Dutton was presenting Alternative Facts.
The reason it takes 1 WEEK to refuel is because they don’t have to cut the submarine in half to access the reactor..
I still believe it will all get too hard & we will just go on buying second hand boats… hopefully at significant discount
____________
When someone offers us a used nuclear sub, we should beat the price down by saying, “Nah, nah…not in that colour! Know what I mean?!”
What are the odds that when the announcement is made about the Subs on the delivery that the physical delivery takes places outsize budget and after the scheduled handover date? Sportsbet probably wouldn’t make the market the odds are so short. The defence and foreign policy establishment in this country is decrepit.
The manner in which Luhrman stuffed up the direction of “The Great Gatsby” (2013) – most asssuredly an American classic – means he’s persona non grata in Hollywood. If I were an aspiring actor like Butler, I’d steer clear.
USA: First Republic Bank falls 60% in premarket trading amid concerns over the financial strength of the California-based bank
Holdenhillbilly,
Should be fun watching the opening bell tonight.
“ Dutton.. ex defence minister gets it so wrong..
He claimed Suffren nuclear needs to be refused after 6-7 years, it’s 10 years, he claimed refuelling takes 2 years, it takes 1 WEEK!”
___
When did Dutton say that? I recall him saying something in 2021 about the general unsuitability of having to send the subs back to France to refuel (but i thought he at least acknowledged that was a once in ten year process).
In truth it takes three days to refuel, but the subs also need to be available for three to four months for coolant water recycling. In France they have worked out a system where everything – refuelling, recycling and the once in ten year service cycle overhaul can all be done in 12 months.
The ‘worst case’ scenario for Australia would have once in ten years we do the long term overhaul in Adelaide – 12 months – but either before or after that the boat sails to Cherbourg for four months. Six weeks of sailing each way and the boat is out of service for a total of 19 months.
However, that’s still at least 10 months quicker that the service cycle maintenance for either the Astute or Virginia class, and comparable to the typical 16 to 20 months per boat service cycle overhaul rebuild that every Collins class boat undergoes every seven years.
Of course, we wouldn’t have to undertake refuelling and water recycling in France. We actually undertake refuelling and recycling at the ANSTO reactor at Lucas Heights. A reactor which is the same basic type as the French submarine reactors albeit an order of magnitude less in power output) that is refuelled and recycled in conjunction with … the same company responsible for the Suffren class reactor! Of course there is viable pathway to undertake refuelling and recycling in SA at the same time so the boat undergoes its 12 month overhaul. …
wranslide:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 8:10 pm
[‘The defence and foreign policy establishment in this country is decrepit.’]
Concur. There’s been an excessive amount of discourse over a few years on this site about boats, most of which Player One has got it right – that is, it’s not about boats, but more about the weather.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-12/india-to-ensure-no-breach-on-russia-oil-purchase-sanctions
Did Albo have a bit of a word on this subject in India the other day? I was trying to explain that sometimes you need to softly approach these subjects the other day to a friend.
Andy you’ve lost the argument buddy. Time to move on on.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 8:18 pm
USA: First Republic Bank falls 60% in premarket trading amid concerns over the financial strength of the California-based bank
”
This all eerily similar to the start of GFC.
First Lehman brothers fails. Bush administration refuses to bail out LB.
The Beginning of the End of
Lehman’s stock fell sharply as the credit crisis erupted in August 2007 with the failure of two Bear Stearns hedge funds.
L’arse:
“ Andy you’ve lost the argument buddy. Time to move on on.”
You don’t even understand the argument.
“Should” vs “would” … buddy.
Coulda Woulda Shoulda.
U were wrong Andy. C@t was right.
Man up buddy.
Is it so hard for you to acknowledge?
The US market has taken a full 1% off expectations for Fed Reserve interest rates at the end of 2023.
On Thursday it was 5.5%, now at 4.5%.
“ On Monday (6 Mar), Silicon Valley Bank was congratulating itself for making Forbes magazine’s annual ranking of the best banks in America. By Friday, SVB imploded in the largest bank failure since Washington Mutual in 2008 and the second-largest in U.S. history.”
“Proud to be on @Forbes’ annual ranking of America’s Best Banks for the 5th straight year and to have also been named to the publication’s inaugural Financial All-Stars list,” SVB tweeted Monday.”
So I guess we can add Forbes to the list including rating agencies Moodys, Fitch and Standard and Poors whose credibility will always be under question following the GFC.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/silicon-valley-bank-touts-forbes-best-bank-nod-days-before-becoming-largest-failure-since-great-recession
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 8:52 pm
Coulda Woulda Shoulda.
U were wrong Andy. C@t was right.
Man up buddy.
Is it so hard for you to acknowledge?
____________
Right wing tactics 101: repeat party line despite correction, until it becomes ‘fact’
102: search for signs of Left disunity and exploit
103: get personal from time to time
Nuclear-powered boats will only deter NZ from invading us. The suggestion that billions spent on six boats will serve as deterrence is as ludicrous as that flags bend with the wind on the moon – and I’m not suggesting that you, Andrew, are the only culprit, not to mention Socrates.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 8:27 pm
7:30 Report tonight
No we’re done now. Australia can technically declare 10 minutes early. The umpires agree to call it off. Handshakes all-round. The 4th Test ends in a draw and India win the series 2-1.
I agree Mavis. It’s a sad time. Untold billions spent on underwater nuclear reactors, of all things. While we have too few houses, dental not in medicare, waiting lists for operations at obscene levels. Pensioners eating cat food.
Snappy Tom
You can have any colour you like as long as it is black.
Not to mention the $500m cut in social housing spending Labor has in the works.
Cat food’s bloody expensive.
“ U were wrong Andy. C@t was right.”
Funny. Just last month you were criticise C@t for not bringing any substance to the argument, contra me.
Yet here you are. Lying (ie. telling deliberate and calculated un truths) about my argument.
mavis: I simply dont even understand your point: I’ve never argued for subs – of any description as a pure ‘deterrence’ asset.
The primary point of subs – even small numbers of them – is that they can effectively deny access for any potential foe through the four access points in the archipelagos to our north. A small number can do this because they work as a part of our overall ITSAR network. This is called ‘sea-denial’ (which as a naval man, up must have heard of). The fact we are left with only 6 now is a Howard era legacy: the Beasley-Keating plan was always for 8. The fact that we still only have 6 is a legacy of a partial fumble a decade ago by Gillard-Swan-Smith, followed by the epic clustercuss that was the A-T-M government.
Anyhoo. If you have been paying attention, you’d have understood my points by now. Clearly you haven’t.
Pokies addicts turn to crime to feed habit. And worse.
Shocked I am.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-was-trying-to-win-the-pokies-binge-that-left-two-people-and-unborn-twins-dead-20230309-p5cqqo.html
That goodness we don’t have these evil machines in pubs and clubs in WA.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Aussie 3 year bonds hit 2.99%. 61bps below the cash rate. RBA would be bonkers to hike again. So it may happen but seems the hawkish policy plan it had was again hopelessly misguided.
After the Ash Wednesday bushfires in Cockatoo (1983) one of the right wing scandal sheets suggested that due to the lack of government support for Cockatoo that people had resorted to eating pet food.
The local General Store placed on the counter a very pretty display of pet food in a basket with some sort of garnishing. The sign read “Dinner Suggestions” or words to that effect.
Well I thought it was funny at the time anyway. I hope my sense of humour has matured. Na…it was a hoot!
”
Scepticsays:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 7:26 pm
https://deadline.com/2023/03/fox-news-dominion-defamation-lawsuit-1235283212/
“Media companies may always report the truth, including reporting on false allegations while explaining that the allegations are false, and Dominion did not sue the many media companies that did just that in 2020,” Dominion’s legal team wrote.
“A publisher who knows the truth can still publish the allegations, but must tell his audience the truth — that the allegations are false — or face defamation liability. That is not Dominion rewriting First Amendment law; it’s the bedrock of decades of First Amendment precedent.” [The italics were included for emphasis by Dominion’s lawyers].
Remembering that Fox belatedly retracted some stories.. only after they knew they were going to be sued. Rupert should’ve quit when he escaped gaol over the Sun tape hacks
”
Not just Rupert Murdoch but also his son Lachlan knew what they were doing and that it was evil. But they still did it anyway. What do you call such people.
They are doing similar things here in Australia, aren’t they on their media outlets?
Interest Four Corners tonight. Clubs NSW – our NRA.
nath:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 9:07 pm
[‘I agree Mavis. It’s a sad time. Untold billions spent on underwater nuclear reactors, of all things. While we have too few houses, dental not in medicare, waiting lists for operations at obscene levels. Pensioners eating cat food.’]
Yes, as if OZ is a power. I think this site has been overtaken by hawks, banging on about military issues rather than psephology.
Fantastic start to Media Watch tonight.
Personally I am looking forward to another 20 posts from Macarthur/Enough Already tonight.
“ Personally I am looking forward to another 20 posts from Macarthur/Enough Already tonight.”
Just as we are all are looking forward to your meaningless irritating snark and lies.
What is the point of you, L’arse?
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 9:23 pm
Personally I am looking forward to another 20 posts from Macarthur/Enough Already tonight.
~~~~~~
Lars. He has promised to ease up. I have yet to see it. Apparently its of vital importance that the issue is raised here ad nauseum. Something about influencing power brokers and the heart and soul.
Anyway, taking him at his word, I reckon it will drop to 18.
Dutts looks pretty snappy in his new specs.
I know its been a long time ago but from memory I thought that the media at the time of the RC into Pink Bats did a similar job of reporting what were embarrassing things to the Labor government as they now are reporting about the Coalition with the RoboDebt fiasco.
As a Labor man I hope my memory is correct in saying that.
Please feel free to refresh my memory if you saw a differing point of view.
However, that does not imply that the illegal acts by Tudge , Morrison and Roberts et al are any less responsible than that of pink bats.
I don’t think Pink Bats was ever seen as illegal.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/federal-greens-will-keep-76-501-in-donations-from-fossil-fuel-investors-20230313-p5crkn.html
Clearly the greens want to stymie the climate change legislation of the ALP at the behest of their fossil fuel donor mates.
AE,
Is the shallowness of the northern waters around darwin and issue for subs, because you need to disapear in the movement box quickly when deploying, or just a submarine preference to always be under and avoid running at surface?
And, Holdenhillbilly. I totally expect Lowe to bump rates up because our situation hasn’t changed that much. We’re still seeing inflation. Though banks exploding is pretty deflationary.
This is a fantastic twitter thread about the SVB run. Essentially, Tech bros’ all got nervous together, all bank together and all tried to withdraw all their funds together and precipitated the collapse of the bank.
It’s a collapse that didn’t really need to happen.
https://twitter.com/ProfessorStam/status/1634722138627121153
It’s kind of a great example of those big brained SV types, thinking they know everything because they can code and then fucking up the world.
Memories, just like yesterday:
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:51 pm
@socrates:
“ I am reminded of Dutton’s equally idiotic “buy them off the shelf” remark at NPC. There is no shelf. No country that can makeSSNs to the required standard has spare capacity to make them for us.”
Ah.hem.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/france-can-help-albanese-fix-aukus
RP says:
Monday, March 13, 2023 at 9:08 pm
Snappy Tom
You can have any colour you like as long as it is black.
____________
Decades ago, in Newcastle, there was an ad for furniture (or carpet?) from a local store. There was a jingle, each verse ending with “It comes in any colour, as long as it is beige”.
The (male) singers then maintained “Beige, beige, beige, beige” underneath the voice over spruiking the product to all and sundry, before another bloody verse ending (see above).
Beige subs could have at least two advantages:
1) blending in with sand in littoral operations
2) boring any enemy to death.
Definitely beige.
Ven: “Is the shallowness of the northern waters around darwin and issue for subs”
The 5 knot tidal currents and 10m+ tides probably don’t help.
Australia is so isolated that in terms of a Navy all we really need is a canoe and a couple of strong swimmers.
Boerwar @ #2631 Monday, March 13th, 2023 – 6:56 pm
It burns! It burns!
Bloomberg surveillance is good today. They are throwing shade on twitter talking heads for stoking fear and causing a bank run..
Watching that Dutton 7:30 interview now.
recycling idiot points.I’ll just offer a point by point critique as I go through the interview.
1. diesel subs could be sunk ‘in our own waters’ when they come up to snorkel because of ‘changes in detection technology’. This is ‘jazz fingers’ reasoning. no such technology exists. the theoretical potential of such minimises the effects of physical properties of water. It is laughable. But anyways, there has long been identified a solution to that ‘problem’ – namely AIP systems (like the ones that sees Singapore’s new SSKs able to stay submerged between snorts for 45 days at a time). Note; AIPs have been rejected by the RAN time and again, because the first point has always been perceived to be theoretical bullshit at best.
2. AUKUS could only have occurred because the Liberal government increased Defence spending to 2% and hence was allegedly perceived as a serious player by the US and Brits. Short hand for ‘they know we are mugs with taxpayers money’ (and witness the $45 billion boondoggle the Hunter frigate programme has turned into: a very nice little earner for BAE. Come in spinner!
More to come.
The Toorak Toff @ #2685 Monday, March 13th, 2023 – 9:33 pm
Yeah, fantastic. 😐
Elizabeth Knight has a good run down of the SVB imbroglio:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/from-crisis-to-calm-in-four-days-why-silicon-valley-bank-didn-t-turn-into-armageddon-20230313-p5crox.html
wranslide @ Monday, March 13, 2023 at 9:31 pm:
“He has promised to ease up. I have yet to see it.”
===========
Wranslide, I actually had already posted everything I was going to today, but an invitation to treat like yours is too good to resist.
Anyway, I’d promised to ease up on haranguing other posters for their views. Unless Vladimir Putin is posting here incognito, I’ve kept my word on that.
I’m curious: do you have stats on everyone’s posts here, and on what topics they’ve posted?
I recall that during the GFC, the government only indemnified $250k in one bank account. If I had expertise in this area, and I had more in another account with the same bank, I’d consider my options in light of the odd bank collapse in the US.
Stephen Bartholomeusz pins the tail on the Don key:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/trump-the-fed-and-the-implosion-of-one-of-america-s-most-unusual-banks-20230313-p5crix.html
Not if you already have a petrol model.
———————
Bingo.
I am willing my petrol chainsaw to cark it -but it isn’t missing a beat. I have my eye on an electric one that will definitely do 500mm but yes, not hours worth unless I pay a fortune on spare batteries. However, I am getting to the age when I don’t really want to chainsaw for hours at a time. So I plan to take breaks during charge – maybe splitting etc. I do similar with my electric brush cutter.
I bought a small electric chainsaw for one handed small stuff and regen weeding work. It’s great.