Victorian election minus nine days

Upper house preference ticket controversy, physical altercations on the campaign trail, and suggestions that Labor’s internal polling is quite a bit less promising for them than media polls.

Various developments on the Victorian election front:

• Antony Green’s eagerly awaited Legislative Council calculators are open for business.

• Today’s Herald Sun leads with a video conference recording showing micro-party preference negotiator Glenn Druery plying his trade. While most of its “bombshell” revelations are old hat, it does show Druery discussing a deal ahead of the 2018 election in which the CFMEU scored preferences for Andy Meddick of Animal Justice and micro-parties got Labor preferences ahead of the Greens, and describing the Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party as “one of mine”. It was noted here on Monday that the latter party’s preference tickets were not appreciably harsher towards Labor than the Coalition, although both are consistently near the bottom of the pile. Druery was also in the news this week after Animal Justice reneged on deals with his network to instead direct preferences to Labor, the Greens, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists.

• Further detail from the RedBridge Group poll published in the Herald Sun on Monday: 73.3% rate that the health system is in crisis, with only 14.5% actively disagreeing; 54.7% think “Matthew Guy and the Coalition” better placed to fix it, strikingly far ahead of Daniel Andrews and Labor on 24%;, 64.9% support the Coalition’s plan to delay construction of the Suburban Rail Loop to divert the money to the health system, with only 18.5% opposed; and 36.4% rated cost-of-living pressures the most important determinant of vote choice, ahead of health on 15.5%, climate change on 10.6% and COVID health and management on 7.8%. It needs reiterating here that the poll’s voting intention question showed Labor on track to win the election. The field work dates, which I said in my previous post were not provided, turned out to be October 31 to November 6.

Bianca Hall of The Age reports disquiet in the Liberal Party over its decision to direct preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor in Northcote, Richmond and Albert Park. A member of the party’s administrative committee, Ian Quick, blamed the decision on Matthew Guy, party president Greg Mirabella and state director Sam McQuestin. The Age reported on Tuesday that the Liberal candidate for Richmond, Lucas Moon, had bucked the directive by handing out how-to-vote cards with Labor ahead of the Greens, but “later switched to handing out the party’s official how-to-vote cards with Labor last”.

Neil Mitchell of 3AW related on Tuesday that “leaked” Labor polling had the party “very edgy”, expecting to lose Hawthorn and Oakleigh to the Liberals, Albert Park to the Greens and Point Cook to an independent. Tim Pallas was said to be in danger of losing Werribee (to whom is unclear); and Daniel Andrews would survive only narrowly in Mulgrave, where independent Ian Cook is said to be gaining traction; and there was a “swing against the government” across regional areas. (UPDATE: Kos Samaras is not convinced).

Clay Lucas of The Age reports Melissa Lowe and Sophie Torney, teal independent candidates in Hawthorn and Kew, are preparing legal challenges against a Victorian Electoral Commission determination that election material directing supporters to make up their own mind beyond the first preference fell foul of the law against misleading voters in relation to the casting of their vote. A VEC spokesperson told The Age that “visuals of blank boxes next to candidate names” could “mislead the voter to cast an informal vote”, whatever the material’s actual intention.

The Age reports the Liberal candidate for Ashwood, Judah Asher, appears to be behind a how-to-vote card advocating a first preference for an independent and a last preference for Labor, while how-to-vote cards being circulated in Northcote direct Liberal supporters to put Labor ahead of the Greens, contrary to the party’s official recommendation.

• Police are investigating an incident in which a Labor activist’s leg was broken during an alleged assault by an opponent of the government’s COVID measures in Wodonga, and both parties to an incident at a Werribee pre-poll booth involving Treasurer Tim Pallas and Freedom Party candidate Mark Strother have lodged harrassment complaints.

• The Victorian Electoral Commission’s site records that just over 400,000 votes have been cast in the first three days of pre-polling, compared with a total of 1.36 million in 2018. The VEC is actively encouraging early voting due to concerns about COVID, with plans to allow those who had tested positive to vote by telephone having been scuttled when the state’s remaining isolation rules were lifted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

310 comments on “Victorian election minus nine days”

Comments Page 7 of 7
1 6 7
  1. Rocket Rod;

    I am eternally hopefully down here, always find straws to hang onto, but this time for sure !!! (j/k)

    Yes, it should be a lot easier to this state seat than the federal seat, its more progressive than any other state seats that make up Wannon, all held by LNP

    Dyson was a great performer that really showed off the generational change, there are demographic changes everywhere with Boomer dominance fading, and millennials influence growing. Its especially noticeable here, in my day a lot of people in early 20s left for Melbourne and didnt come back till their 40s because of lack of opportunities here, but they dont miss out on so much these days if they stay.

    Ive spoken to old Libs at booths, who have told me the party is fearful of losing this seat, because its a foot in the door, they have had the federal seat and the three state seats that make up Wannon all safe for decades.

    If Labor get their foot in the door they will have resources to assert their influence, and the Libs will have work hard to keep the others, they dont want to have to fight for it like they did for Corangamite.

    An Indy win wouldn’t directly help ALP much right now, but it still puts Libs on the back foot, and they will have to fight a three-way race next time. All precious resources they wont be able to divert elsewhere.

    But i still think it will a tight race.

  2. I’m vaguely wondering about Gippsland East. The Shooters candidate is Ricky Muir (the accidental senator), who got 7% in Morwell in 2018 in a very crowded field, so he’s got a good chance of doing better than that this time. (There’s only seven candidates – mild by the standards of this election.) Plus, the Shooters would be running fairly hard to hold their upper house seat in E Vic. I doubt he’ll win, but it may end up as a Nat/SFF 2cp. The seat’s been won by an independent before (Craig Ingram, 1999-2010), so you never know.

  3. I am honestly very confused with the Shooters. They probably would’ve made the TPP in Murray Plains this time but they didn’t stand a candidate. Not standing in most of the Nats heartland seats as they do in NSW. Yet they are standing in Melton and Narre Warren North of all places.

  4. Trent @ 4.39pm
    Spot on. The Lieberals are demonstrating to the Victorian electorate how inept and stupid they are by linking themselves (We) to extreme right wing anti-vaccers etc and their anti-vaccine marches through Melbourne during the worst of the pandemic restrictions.
    Maybe it is time for an advertising blitz highlighting the LNP links to these extremist goons or perhaps maintain emphasizing the positive achievements of the incumbent government.
    By the way, what is the approximate radio rating for Mitchell?
    In NSW, Bob Carr, when Premier, used to justify his personal and ministerial media boycott of Alan Jones on the basis that 82% of the NSW morning radio audience opted for other choices – and that those who chose Jones didn’t vote Labor, anyway.
    Hopefully, similar may apply in Melbourne.

  5. Why is the VEC completely ignoring
    the role played by Glenn Druery in this 2022 and past elections , in voting above the line ,manipulating the allocation of votes? Why also has the office of the Ombudsperson Debra Glass, Commissioner Robert Redlich of IBAC and the Victorian Auditor General turned a blind eye to Glenn Druery and allowed candidates to waste taxpayers money on b S?

  6. In my view, this 2022 Victorian state election has shown that Victoria is the most corrupt state in Australia.
    Furthermore, the so-called anti corruption regulators , the Auditor-General, IBAC, and the Victorian Ombudsman are all asleep at their desks doing little more than public relations work. Window dressing.

Comments Page 7 of 7
1 6 7

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *