Polls: Essential Research and JWS Research (open thread)

Essential Research finds Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings as strong as ever, but perceptions of the national direction have taken a knock.

Without bursting out of the confines of the error margins, the monthly prime ministerial ratings featured in the fortnightly Essential Research poll give Anthony Albanese his highest approval rating to date, up two points to 60%. His disapproval is up one to 27%, which leaves him one point shy of his previous best net approval rating. However, an occasion question on the national direction finds a five-point increase since September for “wrong” to 34% and a two-point drop for “right” to 46%.

Once a lengthy explanatory spiel was out of the way, 50% expressed support and 27% opposition to the government’s multi-employer bargaining laws, and has further results supporting industrial relations policies that strengthen the hand of low-paid workers. The poll also finds 43% of the view that it is inappropriate for politicians to use Twitter, compared with 16% favouring the option that it is a “vital channel” for politicians and 41% for a middle course. The full report is here – the poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1035.

JWS Research has also released its occasional True Issues survey on issue salience, distinct from the one a fortnight ago that focused specifically on the budget. Asked unprompted to name the three most important issues, 44% came up with a response the pollster categorised as “cost of living”, up from 38% in August and all the way from 11% a year ago. Housing and interest rates increased over the year from 10% to 19%, which environment and climate change was steady at 26% and hospitals, health and ageing fell eight points to 29%. The poll was conducted October 28 to 31 from a sample of 1000, and also features results on national direction and government performance in various policy fields.

Note that a dedicated thread for discussion of the Victorian election continues in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,788 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and JWS Research (open thread)”

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  1. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 8:45 pm

    Hello. Are you still over in USA? If yes I had a question.

    Looking at the US mid term results, they were not as bad as feared given the state of the US economy. Most Trump candidates suffered, and considering the number of House seats lost to redistricting (gerrymandering) the Democrat lower house vote was generally solid, except for De Santis in Florida.

    However one big exception was New York, where there were several Democrat losses, almost enough to lose the house on their own. Any thoughts why so bad in NY?

    1. Republican appointed Judge struck down Democrat gerrymandered redistricting of NY where as Florida and Ohio did not care about Judge’s ruling and went ahead with gerrymandered redistributed districts.
    2. There was uneasy alliance between NY State Governor and NY State Mayor.
    3. Andrew Cuomo resignation stench might have lingered.
    4. NY State Democrats realised very late in the campaign that they were in trouble and unable to make up ground.
    5. Democrat House Campaign chair Sean Patrick Maloney lost his seat in NY.


  2. well the afrs edator michaels son was the former president of nsw yung liberals and x asharmer advisor so it does not realy matter what stuchbry thinks on mcrons ranting he basicky admited the dezil subs would be uselis ae i can not think of any developed country with conventionalsubs powered buy deazil it was a thought bubblethis aukis stunt is not much better but mcron admitted they would be completly uselis in a war he just is anoyed no country wants his weaker subs they may have been desent with the nucliar engin but not dezil

  3. A general wet blanket performance from the ABC in Adelaide tonight. Phil Lowe getting a brevet promotion to Fount of Economic Truth in a general takedown of Labor & the idea that people should get paid. A purportedly straight bat on the Vic election, the bat nonetheless being swung to miss all the months of looney anti Dan garbage.

  4. mcron needs to get over it and not have a rant evry meeting complaining abbout the dumpt deal on perrottit he thinks after yarin finklestien could not save morrison with his hand picked candadates hill triy the same thing in nsw plus he is not listening to kean and abandoning the teel vote with his anti climate change anti progresive retorick yes i know that fake independent pushed it but the anti pockies stunt appears to get the hard line cristion moral vote it seems the liberals never learn

  5. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 8:50 pm
    AFR Editorial
    “ Sometimes a bad government, especially one headed in an even worse direction than the opposition, just needs to be thrown out of office.”

    I don’t recall the AFR saying that before the Federal election, despite Morrison running up a post war record debt, and no economic improvements in trade, policy, productivity, export competitiveness etc.

    The AFR these days is no more than a Murdoch tabloid for those who went to business school.

    What better can you expect from AFR, whose editor is Michael Stutchbury, a known Liberal shill.

    Wikipedia: Michael Stutchbury is the editor-in-chief of the Australian Financial Review and formerly The Australian’ economics editor. He generally writes from a free market viewpoint, and was critical of a number of the Rudd-Gillard Government’s economic policies, particularly on its stimulus packages, and industrial relations.

  6. and no matter how hard the cerupt liberal nats media tries with mahayliouk leaks denind to damage her rival asfour this will not stop minns from becoming premier what happend to the aligations of ceruption in the hills that williams raised or john sedoty and ward who were susbendid from liberals over investergations but seem to be running when icac investergatid asfour he was cleared how ever mcgwire and the liberal cantebry councilors were not nothing was found against labor

  7. the links betwen asfour and obead seem prity wak he atendid his weding in the 200s mean while the mp mahayliouk is seemed to have wanted to keep in upper houseShaquiott moslemane has even stronger links was mentored buy tripodi and obead and seemed to think heaps of obeads in his validictory however he tabled them so was not in his speech he delivered just in the hansard record or maybi sidoty liberal thanking the publisher of obeads old news papper or di le being backed by fairfield mayor mentored buytripodi so evry mp with some link to obead who was a power brocker 12 years a go mustbe subject to a media wich hunt but mihayliuk is silent on mosslemane

  8. The Victorian Opposition seem from this distance to be a rabid, incoherent rabble, patterning themselves upon Trump and the US Republicans. The strategy seems to consist largely of stirring up hatred for the Premier, pandering to the ratbag right and creating enough confusion and doubt in the hope that enough people will vote for them. The Victorian Coalition are utterly unfit to manage a pie stall, let alone a state of nearly seven million people.

  9. The MSM are in the fight of their lives.

    They’re losing the power of influence to political social media teams who go straight to the voter.

    Andrews has a million facebook followers and 400k twitter follows. In the MSM’s eyes he and his social media threat must be defeated.

  10. Andrew_Earlwood:

    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 8:54 pm

    [Given the depth of cooker infiltration in the Victorian Liberals Stutch could as easily be damning the German SDP and calling for them to be booted out in 1932 in favour of you know who, as he is urging regime change in Victoria in 2022.’]

    A trifle over the top there Andrew.

  11. i got it rong it appears moslemane only mentiond a few people with obead but maybi asfour will have to be dumpt in faver of an other person maybi secord

  12. yes same with nsw it seems maybi labor should be mopre careful who they pick due to media how ever i think obead has been mostly forgottin now it was 11 years a go mor damaging would be the barilarow trade appointment and matt kean and perrottit contradicting each other most andrews fans follow him on social media and would not liston to 3aw

  13. Aaron: buy yourself a clue before commenting on stuff beyond the capability of your mental furniture to comprehend. This:

    “ i can not think of any developed country with conventionalsubs powered buy deazil”.

    Let me expand your horizons a bit. An incomplete list of developed countries who have just acquired conventional subs (with diesel generators for main power):

    South Korea
    Greece (lols I know, but I guess they still qualify as ‘developed’).

    Not to mention Brasil, Pakistan, India (although each of these are simultaneously pursuing nuclear options as well). Also Indonesia, Malaysia and so on.


    The key for the defence of Australia is not ‘coastal defence’ (and I disagree with Alan Kuperman’s characterisation of Australia’s conventional submarine programs and the plans for the Attack Class in that light) but rather ‘defence in depth’ via Sea Denial.

    A nuclear attack class submarine will undoubtably dramatically expand the range of that defence in depth capability, but until the AUKUS brain fart our sea denial range has been long identified as comprising an area whose northern boundaries start at about 6 degrees north, 95 degrees east and run through to approximately 7 degrees North, 126 degrees east (ie. from the seas off Bunda Aceh through to the east of the lower portion of the Philippines) and whose southern perimeter is the far side of the Air-Sea Gap between Australia and Indonesia. Now of course, given the situation in the Solomon Islands that boundary goes down through the Coral and Solomon seas to New Caledonia.

    Therefore the question is whether a conventional submarine fleet can now – and into the next 30 years – conduct sea denial operations in that range. Up until September last year ALL the expert advice came back with an empathic ‘yes’ to that question.

    Then a marketing hackster said, ‘no: they will be obsolete’. When asked for details, he and his minions blathered on about discretion rates (a non issue in litorial operations, especially given advances AIP systems and battery technology. The Potato then blathered on about doing stuff in the Taiwan straight (well above that Sea Denial range I described above) and the awesomeness of the vertical launch capabilities of American subs as a deterrent (against China).

    All of that represents a massive policy shift, whose rationale has not been properly articaulted in any defence white paper and whose concerns (I’d call them obsessions) are NOT focused on a defence of Australia but prosecuting some other interests. Which is the point that Macron was making, albeit very undiplomatically.

    So, stick to your wheelhouse Aaaaaaaaaaron: pumping Chris Minns’ tyres and apologising for Asafour’s preselection.

  14. “ A trifle over the top there Andrew.”

    “Turning Dan Andrews into Red Myst.”

    “We won Australia fair and square.”

    Just two vignettes to emerge this week on the campaign hustings.

  15. The UK (English) Supreme Court has just determined that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a referendum on independence without the approval of the Westminster (English) Parliament.

    While this matter could have been made clear years ago it’s good to have it out in the open.

    According to English law, Scotland is not a partner in the UK, but a prisoner. While Scots believed they were equal signatories to a treaty, according to English law , Scotland was in fact captured in 1707, with no hope of release other than at the whim of England.

    A bizarre but refreshing state of affairs.

    It has the same moral status as the English boundary drawn across Ireland.

  16. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 9:26 pm

    #Morgan Vic (state) SMS poll 55-45 to ALP.
    ALP 38 L-NP 32.5 Green 12.5 Teal IND 4.5 DHJP 1 UAP 0.5
    others inc non-teal INDs 11.

    I suspect this one is right. Pity, it would be better if the Liberals were completely decimated.

    It was too good to be true.

  17. Morgan

    Minutes after I hit publish on this article, Morgan released an SMS poll taken over the previous two days with a 55-45 2PP obtained by unstated means from primaries of Labor 38 Coalition 32.5 Greens 12.5 Teal INDs 4.5 DHJP 1 UAP 0.5 (not running in lower house so shouldn’t even be included) leaving 11 for other Independents and other parties. Once again the 2PP method (whatever it is) seems to be selling Labor short because Labor would win thumpingly on these numbers (my last-election estimate is 57-43).

    Updated thinks alp being short changed.

  18. I was in Melbourne Town today and the place was rocking ,lots of people in town .
    Trams packed ,shops full.
    I wonder what town. …… the hun and Neil Mitchell have going to.

  19. As I just said on the other thread, I cannot fathom why anyone would back the Vic Libs from here.
    – They have a known and unpopular LOTO.
    – They have never been in front in the polls.
    – They face similar inner urban indie challengers as rolled them in the Fed election in May.
    – They have changed none of the divisive policies that caused the May result.

    Having learnt nothing from defeat, what other result can they expect now?

  20. Andrew_Earlwood at 8.39 and 9.39 pm

    Accurate observations about the USUKA marketing scam (to put the initials in the only sensible geopolitical order). There is another dimension evident by historical analogy, e.g. with the MX missile crisis of 1985. This is the lack of any substantive debate about the issue in the parliamentary Labor Party. People who ensured such debate in 1985, such as former Qld Senator Margaret Reynolds, now have little influence. Once upon a time the Labor left had strong policy positions and there was quite genuine debate about such issues at national conference. Not for a long time now. There is more of an informed critique from Keating than the Labor left.

  21. Cookers aren’t Nazis (right wing authoritarians) they are right wing libertarians. I know quite a few. They tend to be people that you might agree with to some extent if you hold libertarian views, lasting for for about 95% of the conversation. And then they will say some something genuinely insane

  22. Torchbearer says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:26 pm
    “That Vic Poll cant be right because the ABC tonite made it clear a hung Parliament is the most likely result now….

    Rolls eyes….and switches channels.”

    The ABC are in an alternate universe from my observation.

  23. Thanks Dr.

    I googled but didn’t find the answer. Although paywalled, the bit I could see told me all I needed to know.

    I have been in favour of a royal commission into media diversity for some time.

  24. Vensays:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 8:37 pm

    Malaysian King tells BN to join unity government; seeks Council of Rulers to resolve election crisis


    “MALAYSIA’S king has decreed that former ruling bloc Barisan Nasional (BN) must be part of a so-called unity government, BN chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi told Malaysiakini after an audience with the monarch on Wednesday (Nov 23).

    Two other coalition leaders were told the same when they were granted the royal audience, Zahid added.

    The 30 lawmakers from BN have two choices: form the government with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim of the multi-ethnic Pakatan Harapan or ex-PM Muhyiddin Yassin who helms the pro-Malay, Islamist bloc called Perikatan Nasional.

    The king also called a special meeting of his fellow hereditary sultans on Thursday to discuss who should be prime minister as an unprecedented post-election crisis entered its fourth day.”

    It’s really hard to see which way it’s going to go. There’s not much love and commonality between PH, PN and BN.

    The Borneo parties hold a position of strength and if they go with PH only one more MP would be needed to reach 112.

    If they decide on PN then the backing of BN would still be required to get to 112.

    To me it seems a PH-Borneo coalition is a much more natural fit than one with PN due the laters strong Islamic agenda which appears to represent the opposite ideas to what the Borneo parties campaigned for.

  25. Historyintimesays:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 10:53 pm

    Cookers aren’t Nazis (right wing authoritarians) they are right wing libertarians. I know quite a few. They tend to be people that you might agree with to some extent if you hold libertarian views, lasting for for about 95% of the conversation. And then they will say some something genuinely insane

    And if you don’t hold libertarian views, then they are just as bad if not worse than Nazis.

  26. Rakali,
    I’ve never understood the northern irish’s wish to be part of the UK. If you know the history of Ireland, the English are the baddies. Like proper badguys.

    As for the Scotts, they should appeal to the king and put him in a difficult position.

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