Various developments on the Victorian election front:
• Antony Green’s eagerly awaited Legislative Council calculators are open for business.
• Today’s Herald Sun leads with a video conference recording showing micro-party preference negotiator Glenn Druery plying his trade. While most of its “bombshell” revelations are old hat, it does show Druery discussing a deal ahead of the 2018 election in which the CFMEU scored preferences for Andy Meddick of Animal Justice and micro-parties got Labor preferences ahead of the Greens, and describing the Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party as “one of mine”. It was noted here on Monday that the latter party’s preference tickets were not appreciably harsher towards Labor than the Coalition, although both are consistently near the bottom of the pile. Druery was also in the news this week after Animal Justice reneged on deals with his network to instead direct preferences to Labor, the Greens, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists.
• Further detail from the RedBridge Group poll published in the Herald Sun on Monday: 73.3% rate that the health system is in crisis, with only 14.5% actively disagreeing; 54.7% think “Matthew Guy and the Coalition” better placed to fix it, strikingly far ahead of Daniel Andrews and Labor on 24%;, 64.9% support the Coalition’s plan to delay construction of the Suburban Rail Loop to divert the money to the health system, with only 18.5% opposed; and 36.4% rated cost-of-living pressures the most important determinant of vote choice, ahead of health on 15.5%, climate change on 10.6% and COVID health and management on 7.8%. It needs reiterating here that the poll’s voting intention question showed Labor on track to win the election. The field work dates, which I said in my previous post were not provided, turned out to be October 31 to November 6.
• Bianca Hall of The Age reports disquiet in the Liberal Party over its decision to direct preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor in Northcote, Richmond and Albert Park. A member of the party’s administrative committee, Ian Quick, blamed the decision on Matthew Guy, party president Greg Mirabella and state director Sam McQuestin. The Age reported on Tuesday that the Liberal candidate for Richmond, Lucas Moon, had bucked the directive by handing out how-to-vote cards with Labor ahead of the Greens, but “later switched to handing out the party’s official how-to-vote cards with Labor last”.
• Neil Mitchell of 3AW related on Tuesday that “leaked” Labor polling had the party “very edgy”, expecting to lose Hawthorn and Oakleigh to the Liberals, Albert Park to the Greens and Point Cook to an independent. Tim Pallas was said to be in danger of losing Werribee (to whom is unclear); and Daniel Andrews would survive only narrowly in Mulgrave, where independent Ian Cook is said to be gaining traction; and there was a “swing against the government” across regional areas. (UPDATE: Kos Samaras is not convinced).
• Clay Lucas of The Age reports Melissa Lowe and Sophie Torney, teal independent candidates in Hawthorn and Kew, are preparing legal challenges against a Victorian Electoral Commission determination that election material directing supporters to make up their own mind beyond the first preference fell foul of the law against misleading voters in relation to the casting of their vote. A VEC spokesperson told The Age that “visuals of blank boxes next to candidate names” could “mislead the voter to cast an informal vote”, whatever the material’s actual intention.
• The Age reports the Liberal candidate for Ashwood, Judah Asher, appears to be behind a how-to-vote card advocating a first preference for an independent and a last preference for Labor, while how-to-vote cards being circulated in Northcote direct Liberal supporters to put Labor ahead of the Greens, contrary to the party’s official recommendation.
• Police are investigating an incident in which a Labor activist’s leg was broken during an alleged assault by an opponent of the government’s COVID measures in Wodonga, and both parties to an incident at a Werribee pre-poll booth involving Treasurer Tim Pallas and Freedom Party candidate Mark Strother have lodged harrassment complaints.
• The Victorian Electoral Commission’s site records that just over 400,000 votes have been cast in the first three days of pre-polling, compared with a total of 1.36 million in 2018. The VEC is actively encouraging early voting due to concerns about COVID, with plans to allow those who had tested positive to vote by telephone having been scuttled when the state’s remaining isolation rules were lifted.
There has been some very informative, balanced and considered commentators on this site today.
They have added to my knowledge of the up-coming Victorian election, the GVT, Druery, the extent of deception intertwined in politics and the “gutter” press.
I’ve wondered for some time about “subscription ” media which sells other peoples information, incorrect information and influence, yet many are duped into outlaying money for the privilege.
The absolute gibberish and claptrap. masquerading as news, reporting and commentary has no boundaries.
You need look no further than the recently humiliated Morrison LNP government to see what happens when a political party is able to gain government with intensively dishonest media help and allowed to mismanage almost everything they imposed upon a largely disengaged public.
A democracy allows many to ‘believe their own bullshit’.
Thankfully, the voters ‘wise up’ before the ‘the point of no return’ and calamity can be avoided.
The efforts of the MSM in the ‘run-up’ to this Victorian election have been abhorrent.
Money and infamy are lethal mixture.
With such a pandemic of ‘complete bullshit’ we can only hope.
How very Australian, the dishonesty of GVT, Druery and misrepresenting political parties all performing with the help of cheating, but ‘it’s okay, because we can get away with it’ and can’t be caught!
LOL this situation nothing to do with WA.
WA government had upper house majority and system in place was advantageous to opposition.
In Vic government didn’t have numbers and system doesn’t necessarily hurt the government.
Victoria’s state election campaign has become hideously ugly. What happened to the battle of ideas?
Benita Kolovos
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/18/victorias-state-election-campaign-has-become-hideously-ugly-what-happened-to-the-battle-of-ideas
Vic Libs doing MAGA…
I still believe the current (awful) system doesn’t necessarily benefit the government either, contrary to what a lot of the media is portraying.
If Labor hadn’t won with such a massive landslide and gained a +6% primary vote swing in the Legislative Council, they would likely have been just as negatively impacted by Druery’s system as the Greens & Liberals; and they would have had an absolutely feral upper house to pass legislation through.
(That could very well be the case this time – where they will be expected to lose seats and have a negative primary vote swing – although the left wing minors look like they might be more successful in minimising the Druery alliance’s success this time)
It would be interesting to run a calculator for 2018’s tickets, using primary votes more similar to 2014. I think it would demonstrate that Labor wouldn’t particularly have benefited at all from GTV, and they would probably have less than 21 left-leaning votes in the LC and a feral cross-bench.
The primary difference between Labor & the Coalition’s fortunes in the 2018 upper house election was a +6% swing to Labor and a -6% swing against the Coalition, not so much GTV itself.
If the Coalition got 39% of the primary vote and Labor only got 29%, then the effects of GTV also would also have been reversed with the Liberals being the ones more cushioned from losing seats to preference whispering, while Labor would have been more vulnerable to it.
It wasn’t the party, it was the primary vote…
EightES @ #248 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 2:56 pm
Yes true,but left leaning Govts can do the very same thing. Pointing the finger at Joh. He had willing and complaint stooges in the corrupt Q’land police force,besides it’s not all that long ago that Q’landers learnt to sniff the wind and chuck out really bad governments.Quickly.
In New Zealand they have learnt to get along and make Govts work for their full terms,unlike certain Italian cobbled together Govts.
How many Governors,Lieutenant Governors and politicians do we really need in Australia to govern us and lets not get started with councils which seem to be training wheels for the next lot of up and coming politicians. 🙂
Rex Douglas @ #253 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 3:16 pm
That’s funny I thought their Liberal in house lawyer resigned?Oh yes that’s right she did.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-top-lawyer-quits-over-party-s-legally-risky-decisions-20221011-p5bowh.html
Also, I noticed on David Southwick’s facebook page yesterday he put up a post accusing Dan Andrews of “vote rigging”.
Trump anyone?
There are actually comments legitimately asking “Doesn’t Victoria use the same Dominion voting machines as the US too?” …. How does one become so ignorant?
Must have been an exciting night at the Walkleys with the Editor in chief of The Australian taking a walk.I wonder if he’s the fall guy for ALP wins .
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/nov/18/walkley-awards-crikey-moment-as-speculation-surrounds-chris-dores-news-corp-exit
The Victorian Liberals are going full Trump.
Attacking the VEC and going down the path of attacking the credibility of the independent election-running body is a fucking awful idea that just helps draw attention to the fact that they have something to hide.
This coming after their own lawyer bailed out on them.
Do they actually think this is going to HELP them?
This is going the right way to end up not just being Danslide 2: Electric Boogaloo but rather Danslide 2: Danslide Harder.
Arky @ #259 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 3:48 pm
Kind of surprising they haven’t called on IBAC to investigate the VEC as well…No wonder IBAC has troubles getting investigations out with the Libs dobbing in everybody but themselves.
I find the comments made by the VEC communication director to be strange. The VEC statement said no further comment will made. I would have thought the prudent course of action would be to decline all interviews and refer the media back to the original statement.
At the same time, what exactly are Libs hoping to achieve sending that letter to the VEC? It just brings more attention to their donation scandal. If they did nothing if would have only need heard by the 3AW listener’s (95% are going to vote Libs anyway) and then faded into the background as media moves on to the next thing.
Why not just put out a press release saying:
“Dear Media, we would just like to remind everyone that Matt Guy’s former chief of Staff, acting with Matt Guy’s knowledge and likely under Matt Guy’s instructions, undertook a scheme to illegal solicit donations in direct violation of electoral laws.”
Labor should put out an ad that displays Liberal MPs Facebook posts and footage of Liberal MPs at violent protests, side by side with Trump Tweets and footage of the capitol riots, as well as displaying the Liberal HTV cards & group tickets directing preferences to One Nation, UAP and compromised conspiracy candidates.
Just highlight to everybody in the ‘sensible centre’ who the Liberals have aligned themselves with and the dangerous path they are heading down.
The only people who won’t be repelled by it are the small minority of far-right cookers who already hate Dan & Labor anyway.
Dan’s comment today linking the Liberals to Nazis was the strongest message they’ve communicated about that yet. I think they should have more of a focus on the Liberals’ lurch to the right, and all our social progress that would be threatened by a Liberal government.
Mexicanbeemer @ #263 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 4:08 pm
Yep that’s fair.
When you consider it somehow manages to work with the hard man at the top,we can reflect that with some of the least sharpest pencils in the box but with the best intentions and then there are those who are just total scumbags in it for themselves.
But hey look what they are up against, pulling in all directions and that’s just the coalition.
Looking to the future in about two weeks time who’s going to be the next wannabee Opposition leader.
@Hornberger: “At the same time, what exactly are Libs hoping to achieve sending that letter to the VEC? It just brings more attention to their donation scandal. If they did nothing if would have only need heard by the 3AW listener’s (95% are going to vote Libs anyway) and then faded into the background as media moves on to the next thing.”
—-
Agree. Other than somebody on here mentioning the 3AW interview this morning, I would otherwise have been completely unaware of it. And even yesterday’s initial referral, happening at the same time that the Libs referred Labor to IBAC, just got lost in the noise a bit and would probably have fizzled out.
The Liberals accusing the VEC of interference now is headline news on The Age and (almost) headline news even on the Herald Sun, and will no doubt be all over the nightly bulletins and probably become a key focus of the final week of the campaign.
There’s no upside for the Liberals in this. Their more conspiratorial supporters (and those supporting ‘freedom’ parties) will eat it up, but otherwise it only serves to ensure their IBAC referral remains in the spotlight, while inviting comparisons to MAGA Republicans. Especially after only yesterday they accused their opponent of “vote rigging” and now today they lash out at the electoral authority itself.
This could be the defining moment – or mistake – in the campaign for them. Their intention is probably to paint Dan as having corrupted the system, but the focus will end up being on them using the same tactics as MAGA Republicans.
I hope both Labor and the Greens can be smart about capitalising on this.
Trent
Agree. I heard there was a Liberal ad saying ‘remember when WE marched in the streets to protest against Dan Andrews’ (and vaccines, and the police, and for the right to urinate on the Shrine of Remembrance.)
Lay down with dogs, get fleas.
@Grime
Regards the comments “doesn’t Victoria use Dominion machines” etc, this is the same crowd who today were starting a Twitter campaign to “raise $55k to buy Dan Andrews’ seat”.
Cookers aren’t exactly rocket scientists. The phrase “dumb as a sack of hammers” springs to mind.
https://www.scribd.com/document/608461398/Liberal-letter-to-the-VEC#download&from_embed
@Rocket, there was indeed. I haven’t seen it on TV yet but have seen it online.
It’s astonishing really, because it actually shows pretty ugly footage of the protests. You’d think if you’re using a pronoun like WE and associating yourself with an image, you wouldn’t choose a repugnant one to use.
No paywall on this.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/11/18/victorian-liberals-matthew-guy-conspiracy-freedom-movement/
Victorian Liberals are dogwhistling to conspiracy theorists to win votes. It’s not working
Figures from anti-vaccine and freedom movements aren’t buying Matthew Guy’s sudden attempts to court their votes.
Cam Wilson Nov 18, 2022
Matt Guy went the low road with ‘African gangs’ last time – this time doing MAGA.
Says all you need to know about him.
Trent says:
Friday, November 18, 2022 at 4:03 pm
Labor should put out an ad that displays Liberal MPs Facebook posts and footage of Liberal MPs at violent protests, side by side with Trump Tweets and footage of the capitol riots, as well as displaying the Liberal HTV cards & group tickets directing preferences to One Nation, UAP and compromised conspiracy candidates.
Just highlight to everybody in the ‘sensible centre’ who the Liberals have aligned themselves with and the dangerous path they are heading
————
There might be a case for this, and playing footsie with election conspiracy cookers could be the Liberals’ 2022 African gangs moment. At the same time, with the notable exception of Andrews’ comments today about the Liberals preferencing Nazis, the ALP’s campaign seems to be largely focussed on staying above the fray. The central message seems to be – we’re just getting on with it and building stuff.
The informal candidate is looking like the best candidate because the major parties are not worthy of support.
Another group of independents have submitted HTV cards, again these likely won’t be relevant but just to get into the minds of some of them
Jane Agirtan (ex-LIB, Mornington) has Liberals third, Teal last
Michael Doyle (Ashwood) has LIB 2nd, ALP 4th
Aijaz Moinuddin (Tarneit) has LIB 2nd, ALP 3rd
Cameron Liston and Wayne Tseng (both Box Hill, Tseng is ex-LIB), Paul Hopper (Werribee), Laurence Pincini (Sunbury), Hung Vo (Clarinda), Fotini Theodossopoulou (Mulgrave), Sarah O’Donnell (ex-LDP, Mordialloc), Joh Bauch (ex-LIB, Kororoit), Jimmy George Parel (Kalkallo), Fatma Erciyas (Greenvale) has ALP last
Sharon Gibson and Lisa Proctor (both Morwell) has Coalition above ALP
Matt Bansemer (ex-LDP, Bendigo West) has cookers first, Coalition above ALP, Greens last
Ali Cupper (ex-ALP, Mildura) has Liberals 5th, ALP 6th, NAT 7th
James Purcell (South-West Coast) put Jim Doukas 2nd, ALP 4th, Carol Altmann 5th, and LIB 7th
Jim Doukas (ex-Country Party, South-West Coast) put Purcell 2nd, LIB 3rd, Altmann 7th, and ALP 8th
Ian Birchall (Melton) has LIB 11th ALP 12th (only ahead of the cookers from FPV and HAP)
Jeni Jobe (Bass), Elizabeth Woolcock (ex-LIB, Nepean), Nicole Seymour (ex-LIB, Rowville), Henry Kelsall (ex-GRN, Frankston), Sally Gibson (Brighton) has HTVs for both regular ALP and Coalition voters (same as Suzanna Sheed)
Tracie Lund (Morwell), Tony Wolfe (Narracan), Carol Altmann (South-West Coast), Kym Sullivan and Finlay Davis and Sophie Torney (all Kew), Melissa Lowe (Hawthorn), Allan Timms (Brighton), Georgie Dragwidge (Albert Park) has listed no preferences
Legalise Cannabis in their 3 lower house seats are preferencing AJP, ALP, GRN 2-3-4. Cookers at bottom.
New Democrats are putting ALP last in their lower house seats.
Transport Matters in their 2 lower house seats are listing no preferences.
Reason in their 8 lower house seats put Greens and ALP ahead of each other dependent on the seat.
United Firefighters Union are putting a #1 vote for Joe Garra in Point Cook, Greens in Richmond, and Reason in Northern Metro with no further preferences.
I’m not even going to list this man’s preferences, you can look at them yourself (and note who authorized it) https://itsitecoreblobvecprd.blob.core.windows.net/public-files/State/HTVC/667bf3d5-bb13-4a45-9c30-da1953350814/lee,%20howard%20ho%20wun.pdf
I just read the letter.
The moronic liberals have indeed threatened to refer the VEC to IBAC.
Poor old IBAC is going to be busy for years – just on Matty Guy’s personal referrals.
Thank you Matthew Guy, you have put your own scandal, yourself and Catlin back on page 1 of the paper. No wonder their in-house lawyer resigned.
Out trumping Trump?
What’s next? Referring IBAC to IBAC?
Thanks Justin. Sarah O’Donnell (Mordialloc) was the Liberal Democrats candidate for Isaacs in May, so it’s no surprise that in her new guise as an “independent” she’s preferencing the ALP last
Here’s a full list of switchers… from the federal election just this May!
Rebekah Spelman (UAP, Aston -> FPV, SE Metro Region)
Terri Pryse-Smith (UAP, Ballarat -> PHON, Western Victoria Region)
Kerryn Sedgman (AFP, Ballarat -> FPV, Macedon)
Matt Bansemer (LDP, Bendigo -> IND, Bendigo West)
Maria Bengtsson (AFP, Calwell -> FFV, Greenvale)
Chris Field (AFP, Casey -> FPV, Bayswater)
Stephen Juhasz (AFP, Corangamite -> IND, Geelong)
Damian Willis (LDP, Dunkley -> IND, Carrum)
Alex van der End (UAP, Flinders -> FFV, Southern Metro Region)
Greg Hansford (PHON, Gippsland -> FPV, Eastern Victoria Region)
Tony Dobran (GAP, Gorton -> FPV, Melton)
Gerardine Hansen (UAP, Holt -> FPV, Cranbourne)
Edward Sok (LDP, Hotham -> FFV, Oakleigh)
Sarah O’Donnell (LDP, Isaacs -> IND, Mordialloc)
Patrizia Barcatta (LDP, Lalor -> IND, Werribee)
Mark Hobart (GAP, Maribyrnong -> DLP, St Albans)
Alexander Ansalone (AFP, Maribyrnong -> FPV, Williamstown)
John Herron (LDP, McEwen -> DHJP, Northern Victoria Region)
Christopher Neil (AFP, McEwen -> FPV, Northern Victoria Region)
Greg Cheesman (LDP, Menzies -> FPV, NE Metro Region)
Sanjeev Sabhlok (AFP, Menzies -> IND, Bulleen)
Meg Edwards (LDP, Monash -> IND, Bass)
Eric Koelmeyer (LDP, Scullin -> IND, Bundoora)
Amanda Mead (LDP, Wannon -> IND, Lowan)
Caroline White (LDP, Senate -> IND, Clarinda)
Morgan Jonas (IND, Senate -> FPV, SE Metro Region)
Damien Richardson (IND, Senate -> FPV, Northern Metro Region)
John McBride (IND, Senate -> FPV, Western Metro Region)
Geraldine Gonsalvez (IND, Senate -> HAP, SE Metro Region)
@MexicanBeemer: That’s a false equivalence between the party of bigots and racists and the party that is playing dirty to fuck over the party of bigots and racists.
Honestly, Labor types were crying out for a generation (since Keating really) for Labor leaders who would get down into the gutter and street fight if that’s what it took to win and advance your agenda, like John Howard did, rather than losing gracefully as tended to keep happening, and now they have one in Andrews.
The price of progressive reform after progressive reform that actually happens, not just talked about by the Greens but actually happens, is that it is being done by a hardcore political operative who clearly believes in “whatever it takes”. But don’t for one moment give me any kind of false equivalence about Andrews being as bad as Guy and the Libs.
Arky says:
Friday, November 18, 2022 at 5:27 pm
@MexicanBeemer: That’s a false equivalence between the party of bigots and racists and the party that is playing dirty to fuck over the party of bigots and racists.
Honestly, Labor types were crying out for a generation (since Keating really) for Labor leaders who would get down into the gutter and street fight if that’s what it took to win and advance your agenda, like John Howard did, rather than losing gracefully as tended to keep happening, and now they have one in Andrews.
The price of progressive reform after progressive reform that actually happens, not just talked about by the Greens but actually happens, is that it is being done by a hardcore political operative who clearly believes in “whatever it takes”. But don’t for one moment give me any kind of false equivalence about Andrews being as bad as Guy and the Libs.
———————————
My problem with the Andrews government is not its progressive policies but how they are being enacted and because the opposition is beyond a joke the two majors are not worthy of my support.
The ALP is winning the campaign easily.
Mexb: “The informal candidate is looking like the best candidate because the major parties are not worthy of support.”
Yes yes “both sides”.
That’s quite a list Justin.
mabwm: ” Referring IBAC to IBAC?”
Dangerous giving these guys ideas.
Justin – 527pm
Here’s a full list of switchers… from the federal election just this May!
Surprisingly long list.
Nothing like sticking with your beliefs.
On the subject of voting below the line in the upper house, the most likely result if you do not direct your preferences to all candidates, the best you can manage is an exhausted result.
On a site I have since forgotten, it allowed you to see what voting below the line contributed to the final result in this year’s federal election in the Senate. I put my preferences in, and all it told me was that my vote ended up exhausted, because the final matchup was between Liberal and UAP and I didn’t preference either.
Still though, exhausted results would be better than the result of above-the-line votes ending up electing MLC’s with less than 1% of the vote, since that increases the chances of parties being elected on how high their primary vote is. And I think that’s fair. If a region has 35% Labor, 35% Coalition, 10% Greens, and the remaining 20% split between 20 microparties with less than 3% each, the fair result would be 2 Labor, 2 Coalition and 1 Green.
The successful Court action was bought and funded by the campaign for the Independent for Kew
It is noted that the Liberal Party was supportive of the Electoral Commission intervention – now overturned by the Court
But the very same Liberal Party is critical of the very same Electoral Commission for referring Guy to IBAC
Imagine this mob in government
Then you have the conduct of their very angry, grey haired old men at pre-polling
Mexicanbeemer @ #280 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 5:36 pm
Well I guess you’re just going to have to get over it,at least for the next four years.
Rocket Rocket @ #283 Friday, November 18th, 2022 – 5:56 pm
Beliefs? Oh ha ha yes, beliefs.God loves the sinners.
Grime
Well I guess you’re just going to have to get over it,at least for the next four years.
—————————
Would be better if the government was truly inclusion instead of just looking after its mates.
EDIT: oh, its the same one mentioned above…
Liberal candidate for Mulgrave joins Freedom party candidates;
“We are calling on the state election to be postponed and for the state government to go into administration pending an independent enquiry given the election can no longer be deemed valid”
https://twitter.com/Leo_Puglisi6/status/1593401534229815297/photo/1
7.30 on abc Victoria pushing heavily on minority government. Two experts! Both from RedBridge.
No mention of any one else’s polls at all!
Not good enough.
And the VEC has told the Libs politely to go fuck themselves and their Trump-like bullshit.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/about-us/media/state-election-media-releases/regulation-is-part-of-the-vecs-job
Regulation is part of the VEC’s job
Friday 18 November 2022
For immediate release
The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) has responsibilities under the State’s electoral laws. These responsibilities and the activities associated with them are not subject to a moratorium in the lead up to an election.
‘As the independent, impartial body responsible for conducting elections and administering electoral laws on behalf of all Victorians, the VEC does not change its regulatory approach as election day nears,’ Electoral Commissioner Warwick Gately said.
Ahead of this month’s election, the VEC offered briefings to all registered political parties in respect to its planning for the election, including its regulatory priorities. The VEC also published its regulatory approach at the beginning of October, which concentrates on the principles of constructive compliance and referring matters to other agencies, where needed.
‘All of us at the VEC are committed to conducting a safe and secure election for all Victorians, and I have every confidence in our ability to do so. I remain firmly committed to my role as Victoria’s independent electoral administrator and my actions and decisions are taken accordingly. This includes the decision to act, or not to act.’
More information about the VEC’s regulatory approach can be found on the VEC website: Our regulatory approach.
Mabwm says:
Friday, November 18, 2022 at 8:10 pm
7.30 on abc Victoria pushing heavily on minority government. Two experts! Both from RedBridge.
No mention of any one else’s polls at all!
Not good enough.
—
I remember a time when 7:30, Lateline and Insiders were must watch tv. So too when Q&A first launched.
I ignore all of them now. Apart from Lateline which despite being my favourite of the lot was sadly canned.
Mabwm says:
Friday, November 18, 2022 at 8:10 pm
7.30 on abc Victoria pushing heavily on minority government. Two experts! Both from RedBridge.
No mention of any one else’s polls at all!
Not good enough.
—————
And even their polls aren’t pointing to minority government if I’m correct? Media just loves hung parliament and close election/“polls are tightening” narratives. The prosaic reality doesn’t give them much to talk about. Right up there with leadership speculation.
max
Yes, Kos does the occasional ‘Victoria is headed for a hung Parliament’ post but on examination there’s nothing in them.
bug1 – 734pm
Some people really do want to emulate Trump and co don’t they?
You are in South-West Victoria aren’t you? I was down there before the Federal election and was a bit skeptical when a few people told me the independent Dyson could win – but they were in the right ball park as he went pretty close.
I saw where you gave an analysis a few days ago I think about South-West Victoria and the possibility of the independent Altmann winning. I think it is a reasonable chance given the state seat is less safe for the Coalition than the federal seat Wannon.
max
When you are in the media and you can’t with any seriousness talk about the opposition winning – then you have to resort to the next best thing, that the Government will fall into a minority Government position.
Otherwise there is nothing else to talk about because most never really like to analyse policy. Then they can also add “Where is the contest of ideas in this election campaign?”
Total voted 697,404 postal’s returned 9,738
Grime that is interesting – I’d hazard a guess at least one million next week, plus maybe 100k tomorrow. So 1.8 million at least – VEC were predicting a 50% prepoll vote which I think is around 1.9 million.
Dan Andrews ‘on the nose’ with voters
The Premier is battling an unprecedented image problem one week out from the state election, party polling shows.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/
The Age has finally published an article that calls out the Liberals’ Trump like rhetoric, debunks their claims of Labor’s involvement in the Druery matter, and calls out their IBAC referrals as nothing but trying to rack up a tally.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/coalition-needs-to-watch-its-language-as-integrity-campaign-comes-to-a-head-20221118-p5bzi9.html
Maybe the Liberals’ behaviour today was the last straw and they’ve decided to abandon that sinking ship now. You couldn’t keep defending the Libs and remain credible now.
Meanwhile, no mention on the Herald Sun, just another “Dan is on the nose” headline.
Yes mr money. They surveyed the management at the herald sun. The result was 100% dislike Andrews.
Feel free to post the article, as I won’t willingly give money to Murdoch.
I can here Jeremy going off from here!