Various developments on the Victorian election front:
• Antony Green’s eagerly awaited Legislative Council calculators are open for business.
• Today’s Herald Sun leads with a video conference recording showing micro-party preference negotiator Glenn Druery plying his trade. While most of its “bombshell” revelations are old hat, it does show Druery discussing a deal ahead of the 2018 election in which the CFMEU scored preferences for Andy Meddick of Animal Justice and micro-parties got Labor preferences ahead of the Greens, and describing the Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews Party as “one of mine”. It was noted here on Monday that the latter party’s preference tickets were not appreciably harsher towards Labor than the Coalition, although both are consistently near the bottom of the pile. Druery was also in the news this week after Animal Justice reneged on deals with his network to instead direct preferences to Labor, the Greens, Reason, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists.
• Further detail from the RedBridge Group poll published in the Herald Sun on Monday: 73.3% rate that the health system is in crisis, with only 14.5% actively disagreeing; 54.7% think “Matthew Guy and the Coalition” better placed to fix it, strikingly far ahead of Daniel Andrews and Labor on 24%;, 64.9% support the Coalition’s plan to delay construction of the Suburban Rail Loop to divert the money to the health system, with only 18.5% opposed; and 36.4% rated cost-of-living pressures the most important determinant of vote choice, ahead of health on 15.5%, climate change on 10.6% and COVID health and management on 7.8%. It needs reiterating here that the poll’s voting intention question showed Labor on track to win the election. The field work dates, which I said in my previous post were not provided, turned out to be October 31 to November 6.
• Bianca Hall of The Age reports disquiet in the Liberal Party over its decision to direct preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor in Northcote, Richmond and Albert Park. A member of the party’s administrative committee, Ian Quick, blamed the decision on Matthew Guy, party president Greg Mirabella and state director Sam McQuestin. The Age reported on Tuesday that the Liberal candidate for Richmond, Lucas Moon, had bucked the directive by handing out how-to-vote cards with Labor ahead of the Greens, but “later switched to handing out the party’s official how-to-vote cards with Labor last”.
• Neil Mitchell of 3AW related on Tuesday that “leaked” Labor polling had the party “very edgy”, expecting to lose Hawthorn and Oakleigh to the Liberals, Albert Park to the Greens and Point Cook to an independent. Tim Pallas was said to be in danger of losing Werribee (to whom is unclear); and Daniel Andrews would survive only narrowly in Mulgrave, where independent Ian Cook is said to be gaining traction; and there was a “swing against the government” across regional areas. (UPDATE: Kos Samaras is not convinced).
• Clay Lucas of The Age reports Melissa Lowe and Sophie Torney, teal independent candidates in Hawthorn and Kew, are preparing legal challenges against a Victorian Electoral Commission determination that election material directing supporters to make up their own mind beyond the first preference fell foul of the law against misleading voters in relation to the casting of their vote. A VEC spokesperson told The Age that “visuals of blank boxes next to candidate names” could “mislead the voter to cast an informal vote”, whatever the material’s actual intention.
• The Age reports the Liberal candidate for Ashwood, Judah Asher, appears to be behind a how-to-vote card advocating a first preference for an independent and a last preference for Labor, while how-to-vote cards being circulated in Northcote direct Liberal supporters to put Labor ahead of the Greens, contrary to the party’s official recommendation.
• Police are investigating an incident in which a Labor activist’s leg was broken during an alleged assault by an opponent of the government’s COVID measures in Wodonga, and both parties to an incident at a Werribee pre-poll booth involving Treasurer Tim Pallas and Freedom Party candidate Mark Strother have lodged harrassment complaints.
• The Victorian Electoral Commission’s site records that just over 400,000 votes have been cast in the first three days of pre-polling, compared with a total of 1.36 million in 2018. The VEC is actively encouraging early voting due to concerns about COVID, with plans to allow those who had tested positive to vote by telephone having been scuttled when the state’s remaining isolation rules were lifted.
Kos Samaras has a twitter thread on why Neil Mitchell’s “leaked polling” is almost certainly complete crap.
But wouldn’t be the first time Neil has reported “leaked polling” that turned out to be entirely fictional, so…
Deceit appears to be the main theme being adopted in this Victorian election, by political parties, independents, single issue types, professional manipulators, newspapers editors, friends, families and co-conspirators to gain advantage in both houses.
It seems the “algorithm” for political success relies heavily ion deceit!
Its worth noting that the Redbridge Group have us believing the Health system is in crisis and some “Guy’ and his party are thought to be the best to manage this crisis.
At the same time we are told that cost of living pressures are the main “determinant of vote choice” !
And some bloke with the name of Andrews and his party will probably win the election.
Newspapers now give us the privilege of paying for “stuff” that doesn’t belong to them, may not be true and makes us all “very edgy”.
While at the same time there is some “disquiet” about which may have caused an “activist’ to sustain a broken leg.
I’m assuming that everything is on schedule and normal as we observe democracy in action.
suggestions that Labor’s internal polling is quite a bit less promising for them than media polls.
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Sounds very similar to what happen during the recent federal election , Labor internal polling claim Labor was not going to gain seats but lose seats ,
This scenario is likely to happen ,if the corrupt media is following the recent federal election propaganda
Close to or on election day newsltd will likely release Lib/nats internal polling show the lib/nats combined primary vote is in the 40’s
when reality it will likely lower than 35%
Re-posting:
2018 Vic Poll – Week 3 Neil Mitchell Update:
“Mitchell said the Opposition leader has a “new spring in his step” this week for a very good reason.
“I’m told private polling shows he has made up huge ground this week.”
“His law and order campaign is increasingly popular “
Did anyone else suffer through this?
Personally I’d rather gnaw my scrotum off than watch Credlin.
Playing with the legislative council calculator, it seems that Fiona Patten is relatively safe, the only way she loses to the DLP is if every single left-wing party’s vote crashes, which probably won’t happen. She could also lose if: 1. She falls behind Legalise Cannabis and 2. She also falls behind the Greens’ surplus, in which case the Victorian Socialists win instead.
171 lower house candidates lost their $350 deposit last time for failing to clear 4%. 24 of these are back to lose another $350 in the lower house, and a further 13 are running in the upper house.
74 minor party and independent lower house candidates cleared 4% last time. 21 of those will recontest the lower house and 5 will contest the upper house.
Herald Sun 16/11
Mr Druery – dubbed the “preference whisperer” – also lifts the lid on why Victoria is the only state in Australia not to have changed the law to stop the manipulation of votes, saying it is because Labor benefits from the scam.
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You are right on the ‘old hat’ description William.
Everyone already knows that.
Taylormade says:
Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 8:09 am
Herald Sun 16/11
Mr Druery – dubbed the “preference whisperer” – also lifts the lid on why Victoria is the only state in Australia not to have changed the law to stop the manipulation of votes, saying it is because Labor benefits from the scam.
_____________________
You are right on the ‘old hat’ description William.
Everyone already knows that.
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LOL Taylormade
The Herald Sun trying to spin the Druery video into Labor benefitting from it, is ridiculous. But I don’t doubt that a lot of their extremely unintelligent readers will believe it.
The reason Labor haven’t abolished GTV is because it disadvantages the Greens, but that doesn’t mean it benefits Labor. Druery’s preference whispering very clearly benefits micro-parties at the expense of both majors and the Greens. The entire purpose of his system is to favour a different micro-party to win the 5th seat in each region.
Labor are right near the bottom of all Druery’s tickets. To spin that into somehow “benefitting Labor” shows a complete lack of understanding of his operation – or more likely, a completely dishonest but deliberate misrepresentation of it.
Especially when this year, Labor and the block of left-wing parties working outside Druery – including AJP who cleverly double crossed Druery – have all mostly preferenced each other ahead of the Druery block to try to shut them out.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-refer-labor-to-ibac-over-preference-whisperer-video-20221117-p5byzg.html?btis
I know the Freedom Party for all their faults have also claimed that Health Australia Party is another Druery front like Sack Dan Andrews. I wouldn’t be surprised. They believe GVT’s with like-minded parties swapping preferences with no cash involved is ok but want to jail Glenn Druery and say thats why they preferenced every party that dealt with him under the Coalition. That includes parties closer to their own policies like the DLP and the Liberal Democrats.
LOL Libs referring Labor to IBAC over a preference whisperer who works with micro-parties, not Labor, and this year is only working to mostly install right-wing micro parties in the LC (Hinch, Sustainable Australia, DLP, Health Australia, Sack Dan Andrews, etc) who specifically WON’T cooperate with Labor!
Are the Liberals (and Herald Sun) really trying to argue that Labor are somehow involved with Druery trying to install a right-wing populist cross bench of DLP, Hinch & Sustainable Australia instead of the left-wing minors like Reason, AJP, Socialists & Greens because they will be “easier to work with”?
“Jeremy says:
Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 9:25 am
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-refer-labor-to-ibac-over-preference-whisperer-video-20221117-p5byzg.html?btis”
Ha, ha, ha…. The Liberals are already heading for a mighty trashing at the Vic state election, for being politically bankrupt… Now, with that idiocy, they will just increase their electoral bashing for being totally stupid!
Who wants to be led by a stupid political party?… Not Victorians, for sure!!
Group Voting Tickets are passed their use by date.
I once gave the ALP my 1 above the line and they sent my vote to elect a Family First Senator.
I’ve voted Green, then Labor, below the line every time since.
I control my preferences.
The GVT is passed its use by date.
So Labor are in danger in 4 or 5 seats, according to Neil Mitchell? Before Jeremy and others get too excited, it might be a good time to remind everybody that Labor currently holds 55 – burn that into your brains, 55 – out of 88. A bit of a cushion there – even if the “in danger” reports are true!
“Bianca Hall of The Age reports disquiet in the Liberal Party over its decision to direct preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor in Northcote, Richmond and Albert Park. A member of the party’s administrative committee, Ian Quick, blamed the decision on Matthew Guy, party president Greg Mirabella and state director Sam McQuestin. The Age reported on Tuesday that the Liberal candidate for Richmond, Lucas Moon, had bucked the directive by handing out how-to-vote cards with Labor ahead of the Greens, but “later switched to handing out the party’s official how-to-vote cards with Labor last”.”…
Ha, ha, ha…. Message from the Vic Liberal party to Liberal voters: “Hey fellow Liberals, forget about ‘principles’ (we don’t have any anymore), and just look for devious electoral convenience”…
Great “path to victory”, eh?… Good luck, Lobster…. 🙂
MABWM, yep voting beloe the line is the way to go. Labor and Liberal would do anything to keep the cosy duopoly between them. Hopefully Greens and independents hold balance of power in both houses.
Brisbane Jack says:
Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 9:55 am
So Labor are in danger in 4 or 5 seats, according to Neil Mitchell? Before Jeremy and others get too excited, it might be a good time to remind everybody that Labor currently holds 55 – burn that into your brains, 55 – out of 88. A bit of a cushion there – even if the “in danger” reports are true!
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After the redistribution the government has 57 seats but the problem with Neil’s leak is the seats he talked about are safe so for them to fall would point to a major landslide defeat but no one is predicting that will happen.
Now whose analysis on the GVT should I believe.
Anthony Greens or Trent’s, Alpo’s or Scott’s (lol).
I think I might stick with Anthony’s.
@Taylormade: Antony Green’s analysis is consistent with ours.
There are clearly 3 blocks of parties preferencing each other:
1. A left-wing minor block, NOT using Glenn Druery – Animal Justice (who actually double crossed him), Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis, Reason and Greens.
2. The parties paying Glenn Druery – Sustainable Australia (right-wing), Hinch’s Justice Party (populist-right), Angry Victorians (right-wing), DLP (very right-wing), Transport Matters (taxi lobby), Health Australia (anti-vax), Sack Dan Andrews (a puppet party set up to filter preferences to the others).
3. A more far-right block – Freedom Party, Family First, One Nation, UAP, Companions & Pets.
Some important facts:
– The left-wing block are preferencing Labor ahead of Druery’s parties.
– Labor are preferencing the left-wing block ahead of Druery’s parties.
– Druery’s group are mostly preferencing Labor and the other left-wing parties (other than AJP who cleverly fooled them) right down near the bottom.
This isn’t “my analysis” that somehow differs from Antony Green’s. Just look at WB’s post a few days ago which outlines the exact same thing.
Does Labor support the GTV system itself because it helps reduce Greens seats? Yep.
But more specifically relating to Glenn Druery and his “seats for sale” approach, is his group helping Labor win more seats, or even helping to elect a more “Labor-friendly” crossbench? Absolutely not.
The premise of that would be based on Labor preferring to work with DLP, Angry Victorians and Sustainable Australia than they would with Reason, Animal Justice & Greens (you know, the 3 parties who most often support their legislation in parliament).
@Jeremy: Of course they did. They have to keep the Big Lie going, after all – at least until after the election.
@Taylormade: Please show us how Green’s analysis significantly differs.
this is interesting
Callum Godde
@calgodde
BREAKING: The VEC has announced it has referred its Matthew Guy/Mitch Catlin probe to IBAC for further investigation.
“Despite public statements to the contrary, the VEC has not received full cooperation from those connected to its investigation.”
Taylormade, Trent will spin anything Labors way. Dan Andrews could eat his own children and Trent would spin this as an environmentally friendly premier who has reduced population of the planet thus saving it.
Scott, what’s the potential corruption score??? I’ve got.
LABOR 7
COALITION 3
GREENS 0, ZERO, ZIP, ZILCH, NONE.
OTHERS as per Greens.
Apparently the VEC has referred Matthew Guy to IBAC
Jeremy
I would put the lib/nats higher in corrupt behaviour
The corrupt media are Lib/nats political propaganda arm
Do you think numbering ten squares below the line in the Legislative Council should be enough to screw the RWNJ’s or do they still somehow get a look in?
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and his former chief of staff have been referred to Victoria’s corruption watchdog over allegations of trying to circumvent political donation laws.
The Victorian Electoral Commission on Wednesday referred its Matthew Guy and Mitch Catlin investigation to the Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission for further investigation, it revealed on Thursday.
Taylormade says:
Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 10:15 am
Now whose analysis on the GVT should I believe.
Anthony Greens or Trent’s, Alpo’s or Scott’s (lol).
I think I might stick with Anthony’s.
—
Before you fellate him too hard, you may like to start with getting Antony’s name right.
Victoria @ #26 Thursday, November 17th, 2022 – 10:50 am
Ah well,he’ll be long gawn before that sees the light of day.
Matthew Guy (inset) and former chief of staff Mitch Catlin.
Breaking
IBAC
VEC refers investigation into Guy, Catlin to IBAC
Electoral Commissioner Warwick Gately said the VEC has exhausted attempts to fully investigate what may have been a breach of Victoria’s funding and disclosure laws.
Won’t read that in the Hun.
Matt:
I am genuinely interested in your view:
What exactly is he Big Lie you are referring to? I can hazard a guess but I’d like to hear your analysis.
Trent:
Spot on as always.
I won’t repeat my own analysis – repetition does not make it any more interesting, but I invite you to analyse away!
Vote often, vote early.
PS- in my previous post it should be *past grammatically, although linguistically passed has a certain nuance that also seems to fit. Greetings pedants!
We have to suffer the jeremys and Taylormades of PB till the election is over. The funny thing is the jeremys of the world will disappear immediately if and when Victorian Labor wins the election because they don’t have the guts to face the music in the aftermath.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/vec-refers-guy-catlin-investigation-to-ibac-20221117-p5bz1p.html
Grime says:
Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 10:52 am
Do you think numbering ten squares below the line in the Legislative Council should be enough to screw the RWNJ’s or do they still somehow get a look in?
Grime – I numbered to 20 below the line. I could not bring myself to give anyone to the right of the ALP a chance of getting my vote.
Jeremy says:
Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 10:45 am
Taylormade, Trent will spin anything Labors way. Dan Andrews could eat his own children and Trent would spin this as an environmentally friendly premier who has reduced population of the planet thus saving it.
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Trent can defend himself but the Andrews government has actively courted the social causes that progressives support and that’s why progressives think the Teals are a bigger threat to the Liberals in the inner suburbs but that is probably overblown except for Kew.
Victoria
What is your gut feeling of end result of Victorian election
Ven says:
Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 11:01 am!!!!
FARK ME!
Obviously the timing is part of the MS media and VEC’s appalling pro ALP bias (SARCASM).
Now how am I supposed to het any work done today? The heat on Lobster Guy and his cronies just went up to KIRKUP!
@Grime and MABWM: I haven’t voted yet, I prefer to do so on election day. Partly because the EVC is in South Yarra whereas an election day polling place is right behind my house, but also partly because I’m a nerd and like contributing to the polling place level data!
In the LC I plan to vote below the line (of course) and do the following:
1-3 will be the first candidate from each of Victorian Socialists, Reason and Greens;
4-18 will be every remaining candidate from those 3 parties plus Animal Justice, Labor and Legalise Cannabis, and I’ll stop there at 18.
That should be enough because being in South Metro I’m hoping (and assuming) Greens will win that 5th seat and my vote will land with Katherine Copsey and not go any further anyway.
Ven says:
Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 11:00 am
We have to suffer the jeremys and Taylormades of PB till the election is over. The funny thing is the jeremys of the world will disappear immediately if and when Victorian Labor wins the election because they don’t have the guts to face the music in the aftermath.
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Yes should climb into their holes now and make sure they close the lid.
Ven
I believe there is a real and visceral anti dan sentiment due to the pandemic.
People who have gone down the rabbit hole and bought into the whole pandemic is a conspiracy. Somehow Dan Andrews was complicit.
This has infiltrated people who on the surface appeared once sensible.
Not all these people were original liberal voters.
Many were of the left to start with.
Having said that. Construction workers and tradies want projects to continue into the future and Labor are their best bet. This flows onto the business sector.
Health sector also see Labor as their best bet.
Nursing and midwifery degrees being free is a winner.
Education sector as well. Especially the kinder fees being free next year with increased hours.
Another winner.
Labor will win.
I take it that because legalizing cannabis is of interest to many people across the political spectrum, that the leadership of local branches of Legalise Cannabis may be very different from each other. The WA branch seems to have a lot of cookers, one of their MLCs has had a colourful session in parliament and also their candidate for the North-West Central by-election was a federal Informed Medical Options Party candidate. In Victoria, the contact for all the candidates submitted to the VEC is Rachel Payne, who ran federally in Menzies for the Reason Party in 2019, and is the lead candidate for SE Metro Region.
@Justin, I worked at a polling place in 2016 when ‘Drug Law Reform’ ran a lower house candidate in Melbourne Ports and I was quite surprised, when doing the preference distribution, to see a lot of their preferences end up in the Liberal pile.
There definitely wasn’t really a clear left/right trend, their preferences just went everywhere.
Run through the upper house calculator:
Step 1 – put in a 2% swing to liberals, 1% to greens and -3% to Labor. On the lower end of forecast lower house swings.
Step 2 – click the ‘set to 100%’ button.
Results:
East Vic – 2 La, 1 Li, 1 Nat, 1 SFF
NE met – 2 La, 2 Li, 1 Gre
N met – 2 La, 1 Li, 1 Gre, 1 Reason
N Vic – 1 La, 1 Li, 1 Nat, 1 AJP, 1 LD
Se Met – 3 La, 2 Li
S Met – 2 La, 2 Li, 1 Gre
W Met – 2 La, 1 Li, 1 DLP, 1 Gre
W Vic – 2 La, 2 Li, 1 Justice
Total
La – 16 (-2)
Li – 12 (+2)
Nat – 2 (+1)
Green – 4 (+3)
AJP 1 (+0)
Reason 1 (+0)
DLP 1 (+1)
Lib Dem 1 (-1)
Justice 1 (-2)
SFF 1 (+0)
Sustainable Australia 0 (-1)
Transport matters 0 (-1)
Even under an assumed swing against Labor, they potentially end up with an easier upper house composition that at the last election.
Previously, they had three options.
Justice
All 3 of Greens, Reason and AJP.
Deal with the crazies.
Now, they would have 4 options.
Greens and AJP
Greens and Reason
Greens and Justice
Deal with the crazies.
Victoria @ #44 Thursday, November 17th, 2022 – 11:13 am
Yep and I haven’t met one person,who hasn’t died from Covid complications who reckons catching Covid was the most fun thing they’ve done in the last few years.
They usual response is ‘thank goodness the ‘premiers’ overrode The Marketing man and kept most of us safe once the shit hit the fan.
It’s true,empty vessels make the most noise.
@Voice Endeavour, thanks for the great summary! I don’t like this part:
W Met – 2 La, 1 Li, 1 DLP, 1 Gre
That 1 DLP is Bernie Finn isn’t it? Ugh! At least though with the configurations you have posted there, he would be rendered completely irrelevant.
MABWM @ #36 Thursday, November 17th, 2022 – 11:00 am
Twenty it is and a case of Steersman to that man.
We should remember that not everyone voting against the ALP is a cooker.