The flood of polling in the week after the budget is inevitably followed in the week after that. Here’s all I have:
• The tracking poll of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings maintained by US pollster Morning Consult records no significant change, with Albanese starting November on 57% approval and 30% disapproval, down one and up two from the start of October.
• As reported by Anna Macdonald at The Mandarin, Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers told the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters the commission was struggling to attract staff at election time due to low pay and “bizarre behaviour” at polling places. Specifically, Rogers said the May federal election was marked by “people coming into the polling place and recording interactions with our staff, shouting at our staff, and some fairly bizarre behaviour that we haven’t seen previously”.
• Independent ACT Senator David Pocock has made a submission to the inquiry calling for the two territories to have six Senators serving six-year terms on the same staggered cycle that applies to the rest of the Senate, as distinct from the current situation where they have two Senators each whose terms are tied to the House.
”
Barney in Cheratingsays:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 7:56 am
What is good and what is evil?
To me they are the extremes of a non-binary system and are much rarer in reality than many people make out.
”
Especially when Super powers inflict untold misery and “collateral damage” ( I hate that weisel word) in the name of doing good to other countries.
UK Cartoons:
Morten Morland on #BorisJohnson #RishiSunak #COP27
Patrick Blower on #BorisJohnson #RishiSunak #COP27
Christian Adams on #BorisJohnson #RishiSunak #COP27
Brighty on #Refugees #EconomicMigrants
Morten Morland on #gavinwilliamson
Patrick Blower on #Midterms2022
Ben Jennings on #RishiSunak & his top team #gavinwilliamson #JeremyHunt
Steve Bell on the Conservatives and climate policy
Matt on #thecrown
The original James Gillray (Light Expelling Darkness):
Real wages are tanking. Pocock is standing in the way of reforms that would help reverse that. Pocock did NOT promise to support employer IR interests but that is what he is doing.
Lambie has outed herself as profoundly anti-union.
Those voting for Xbenchers are voting for delay, stunts, look-at-moi noise and bosses’ stooges.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:14 am
A secret report by the former Coalition government into the sports rorts scandal slammed the decision-making process behind the grants scheme and its “lack of transparency”.
The investigation by former secretary of the prime minister and cabinet department Phil Gaetjens also found there were significant shortcomings when Coalition senator Bridget McKenzie awarded a community sporting grant to a gun club she was a member of.
Documents released under freedom of information reveal Gaetjens found there was a lack of transparency for applicants regarding how grant money would be allocated.
Secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Phil Gaetjens
Sports rorts: Coalition blocking release of Phil Gaetjens’ secret report, citing cabinet exemption
Read more
“This lack of transparency coupled with the significant divergences between projects recommended by Sport Australia and those approved by the minister has given rise to concerns about the decision making,” the report states.
“Those submitting grant funding applications had, in my view, a right to more fully understand the basis on which the funding decisions were being made.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/07/complete-phil-gaetjens-report-into-sports-rorts-scandal-released-under-foi-laws
”
Is Ms. McKenzie still partner of Benson?
”
ItzaDreamsays:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:45 am
Elon Musk has recommended that US voters pick Republican candidates for Congress in a message posted to Twitter.
Mr Musk directed his tweet to “independent-minded voters”.
He wrote: “Shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties, therefore I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the presidency is Democratic.
“Hardcore Democrats or Republicans never vote for the other side, so independent voters are the ones who actually decide who’s in charge!”.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/11/08/russia-election-interference-yevgeny-prigozhin/?
It’s personal – there’s been great friction between the Dems and Musk over (non) unionised work forces, with the famous EV jamboree Biden got together completely omitting Tesla – as much as ideological – the need for ‘balance’ and ‘independents’. The ‘balance’ business is all fine and dandy, in an idealised clean (not rigged) forum. What we are looking at here, and failing to acknowledge, is that if the Repugs get control back, there won’t ever be two sides again. Ever. And independents in the US where it’s first past the post with no preferential voting systems in place in toto? We’ve seen how that’s played out. They’re vote splitters, and never to the Dems advantage.
”
I don’t know whether you know the following:
60-65% of so-called”Independent” voters were either Republican members or voters. They choose the”Independent ” tag to disassociate or camouflage with current Republican party. But they mainly agree Republican agenda.
The TKMS pitch seems to be for the Israeli version of their MEKO A-100 Corvette – which is a slightly smaller version than their MEKO A-100 Frigate. We should be familiar with the A-100, as that is very close to the baseline design for our own ANZAC Class Frigates (based on their MEKO A-200).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sa%27ar_6-class_corvette
https://www.thyssenkrupp-marinesystems.com/en/products-services/surface-vessels/light-frigates
Which begs the question: wouldn’t it be simply better to replace the Harpoon anti-ship missiles with mobile canister mounted NSMs on our ANZACs? Perhaps as many as 12 NSM could be carried. And then perhaps insert a second Mk-41 Vertical launch (4 x 2) module [which the frigates were originally designed ‘for but not with’] and hence quad pack 64 – up from 32 ESSM currently carried – for Air-warfare work and lastly, consider adding one Rim-116 Rolling Airframe “close in” anti aircraft missile system to integrate with the Phalanx CIWS gun?
The ANZACs are getting old now, some of them have also seen heavy service on long Persian gulf/Horn of Africa patrols, but others have only been lightly used (such as HMAS Perth and Parramatta).
Perhaps we can supplement the ANZACs with new A-100s, but I bet that the Navy will insist on the Frigate size so that Australia’s own CEAFAR1-S S-band Active Phased Array Radar and all the other sensors currently installed on the ANZAC can also be fitted to these new warships. There probably isnt a huge problem in going with the slightly bigger design, as both ships only need 65-75 crew (due to substantial improvements in automation since the ANZAC frigate program of the 1990s) and have the same basic capabilities: but the 107M frigate just allows for more ‘stuff’ – like the better CEFAR radar system than perhaps the 90-97M Corvette can accomodate.
Perhaps the ‘best way forward’ is to order four new A-100s NOW (thereby taking the combined A-100 fleet from 8 to 12) with subsequent A-100s replacing the ANZACs on a ‘one for one’ basis in the 2030s.
God knows where that would leave the Future Frigate Program. …
”
Simon Katichsays:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:55 am
Will we get Adrian Beaumont’s take on tomorrow’s mid terms?
”
The best coverage for pre-election and early voting of US Mid-term on PB goes to ….drums rolling…..
Take it away C@tmomma. Annouce the winner. 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:20 am
Wow, a fascinating podcast with a deep dive into the technical aspects of the Ukraine War with an interview conducted with one of Britain’s MoD top analysts:
https://youtu.be/5tEmeidT_3Y
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Thanks C@T, great pickup, undoubtedly the best analysis of the air war to date and into the future in this campaign. To those of us with this particular (military and Ukraine) bent I strongly recommend it.
The accompanying story of civilian innovation in certain small towns to deny the Russians was also heartening, simple but fascinating.
imacca says:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:46 am
“Specifically, Rogers said the May federal election was marked by “people coming into the polling place and recording interactions with our staff, shouting at our staff, and some fairly bizarre behaviour that we haven’t seen previously”.”
Very sad that we are getting this kind of spillover from the lunacy that is the US politics and if the repuglicans have wins in the mid terms in the US it will get worse. Australia has nothing to learn from the US about how to do elections.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/putin-ally-yevgeny-prigozhin-admits-interfering-in-us-elections
Perfectly plausible, and that he has been is not really news…….but i dont think enough Americans care anymore. More concerned with petrol prices than actually living in a real democracy.
———————————————————————————————-
A very hard lesson I learned quite early in life was that you never know what you’ve got until you’ve actually lost it. It looks like this might occur with democracy in America if it continues on this track.
Andrew Earlwood
“ Which begs the question: wouldn’t it be simply better to replace the Harpoon anti-ship missiles with mobile canister mounted NSMs on our ANZACs? Perhaps as many as 12 NSM could be carried. And then perhaps insert a second Mk-41 Vertical launch (4 x 2) module [which the frigates were originally designed ‘for but not with’] and hence quad pack 64 – up from 32 ESSM currently carried – for Air-warfare work and lastly, consider adding one Rim-116 Rolling Airframe “close in” anti aircraft missile system to integrate with the Phalanx CIWS gun?”
Fair question but I would say no for several reasons. First Anzacs and other frigate sized ships have larger combat systems and crews that are an order of magnitude more expensive. We won’t get more ships at sea that way.
Second as you say all but two are getting old. Not much life left and far less stealthy than a modern design so more vulnerable.
Third upgrading old ships (and subs) is expensive- sometimes easier to build a new ship from scratch. All the systems have passed out of production and need to be replaced by new stuff.
So yes many have suggested building a larger number of smaller ships (corvettes) for a long time. I think then enlarged Visby currently under design in Sweden is the leading candidate. We could get a half dozen for a Hunter. They are very stealthy so more survivable vs a more numerous enemy.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/time-for-corvettes-for-the-royal-australian-navy/
And
https://www.saab.com/products/visby-class-corvette
And
https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/visby/
From a military viewpoint both the OPVs as fitted and the Collins LOTE projects are a waste of time IMO. Both projects were invented to hide procurement failure.
Simon Katich
This is Adrian’s latest on the mid-terms.
https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/55425-with-two-days-until-us-midterm-elections–republicans-will-probably-win-control-of-both-chambers-of-congress
Cat
“ Fun Fact: We have a large boat building industry on the Central Coast. It’s largely concentrated on recreational vessels but I wonder if we could transition?”
Actually that is an idea worth checking. One advantage of picking a smaller hull like the Visby is that more places could build it. The work could be farmed out and more boars built in parallel more quickly. The industry would still have to prove it could build to naval standards. But I know Thales has an office in Newcastle so some needed suppliers could be local.
The Visbys only cost about $250 million Aus when built, with AA upgrade say $500 million in today’s costs. As always, we should get an off the shelf design and not stuff around with it!
https://navalpost.com/visby-class-corvette-ghost-ship-of-the-baltics/
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 9:11 am
Coffee prices have hit a 15-month low amid potential record crop in Brazil.
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Hurrah, now this is indeed good news (I’m a good coffee lover).
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 9:33 am
Real wages are tanking. Pocock is standing in the way of reforms that would help reverse that. Pocock did NOT promise to support employer IR interests but that is what he is doing.
Lambie has outed herself as profoundly anti-union.
Those voting for Xbenchers are voting for delay, stunts, look-at-moi noise and bosses’ stooges.
———————————————————————————————-
It’s ironic that those who spruik themselves as being of the people are not necessarily for the people.
NSW state election will be telling , which could decide the fate which the lib/nats will take
Stick with the corrupt media being the Lib/nats political propaganda arm and be in political opposition at Federal/State/Territory level for decade/s , or split from the corrupt media
”
Cronussays:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 10:20 am
Simon Katich
This is Adrian’s latest on the mid-terms.
https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/55425-with-two-days-until-us-midterm-elections–republicans-will-probably-win-control-of-both-chambers-of-congress
”
I hope Adrian Beaumont is wrong in his prediction in this instance.
Ven
I’m not sure I’d want Musk publicly supporting me (in this case the Republicans) given his current standing.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/08/miscellany-leadership-approval-and-jscem-open-thread/comment-page-2/#comment-4006049
… same with think tanks, associations, NGOs …, independence matters, other wise we’re talking BRINGOs or GRINGOs, biz or gov run and influenced!
Just follow the money?
In my view another good talk by Ben Hodges. Give the Ukrainians the weapons they need to bring this war to an end.
ATACMS Missiles Will Bring Russia to Tears, Retired US General Explains
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3X8X-HTzi8&ab_channel=RenewDemocracyInitiative
@socates:
1. Most of the things I have suggested are already underway for the ANZACs. The only difference to my suggestion is that their eventual retirement be tied to the new A-100 Covette/Light Frigate class coming into service, and not being ultimately replaced by the Hunter Class (which really should be bracketed with the Hobart AWDs).
2. The tonnage of the light frigate version of the A-100 is very close to that of the ANZAC. If one looks at how the Israeli’s have configured their Covettes, one can see a pathway for a light Frigate version containing all our Radar and Sensor Stuff onto that hull, but still delivering the firepower needed. And, best of all, due to increased automation technologies over the past 30 years, cutting the crewing requirements in half.
3. I understand that all of the ANZACs are actually ‘good’ for ~35 service life, hence a program that sees us acquire four A-100s NOW (and delivered by 2030) could well dovetail in with a follow on replacement program running between 2031 (35 years after HMAS ANZAC was commissioned into service) and 2041 (35 years after the last ANZAC – HMAS Perth was commissioned) for a 1 for 1 replacement of the old, yet still capable ANZACs, for the new A-100s.
The bottom line is, my suggestion would see 12 small frigates/covettes in service by 2030 and thereafter. Which is the point, surely: a rapid upscaling of capabilities.
Coupled with a program to double the Hobart Class over the same time frame, that would give the RAN 18 surface warships with potent air strike capabilities by 2030: up from the current 11 ships in service now.
If the RAN wants to persist with the Hunter Class, fine, let them come into service in the 2030s. there probably is a case for at least six advanced ASW Frigates to complement 6 AWD Destroyers (which would take the combined ‘heavy strike’ surface fleet from 11 to 24 by the early 2040s. Good!).
Cronus @ #67 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 9:31 am
But he’s hugely popular. Just look at his army of zombie followers on Twitter and the way they celebrate his banning of Kathy Griffin for impersonation, with not a thought spared on the obvious hypocrisy.
Of course, those people weren’t going to vote Dem regardless.
US democracy is DINO. It is too late for peaceful electoral reform there. They have to hit rock bottom first. And that is coming sooner than we think. The US is in a cold civil war as we speak. Their democracy hangs in the balance. And too few of them understand it.
Unfortunately the conservatives in this country gaze longingly at the Scorched earth republicans.
The majority will vote Democrat yet the Republicans will win the midterms. Go figure.
Ven @ #58 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 9:57 am
Ven! 😀
By far and away the most psephy dense coverage.
Socrates @ #63 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 10:21 am
I was speaking to the CEO of the Newcastle Transition Authority as they plan for the future after the massive Coal Loaders are no longer needed and he was asking for input towards what the industrial base in the future for Newcastle could be. This sounds like a very good idea, Soc. I’ll try and get it to him via our connections. 🙂
“US democracy is DINO. It is too late for peaceful electoral reform there. They have to hit rock bottom first. And that is coming sooner than we think. The US is in a cold civil war as we speak. Their democracy hangs in the balance. And too few of them understand it.”
I’m not sure hit hangs it the balance I think they have passed the tipping point, but if the Dems can win the key Sec of State elections / Gov elections, keep the house and get a working Senate majority, they might be able to show I’m wrong.
MSNBC is a Mess, GQP in a Panic, Dems Dominating Early Vote
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/7/2134318/-MSNBC-is-a-Mess-GQP-in-a-Panic-Dems-Dominating-Early-Vote
Pocock wants to take some time and be sure that he’s doing his new job as well as he can.
We have enough Senators that are only there because of their party brand. They don’t have to think for themselves so it only takes them five seconds to work out how they’re going to vote.
I think it’s a healthy sign that Pocock is taking his responsibility seriously and given the alternative (Zed) I think we can all afford to wait and see.
There’s no point in making an enemy of a potential ally who isn’t going to agree on every point when the alternative is a hard no at every turn.
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 10:41 am
Ven @ #58 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 9:57 am
”
Simon Katichsays:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 8:55 am
Will we get Adrian Beaumont’s take on tomorrow’s mid terms?
”
The best coverage for pre-election and early voting of US Mid-term on PB goes to ….drums rolling…..
Take it away C@tmomma. Annouce the winner.
Ven!
By far and away the most psephy dense coverage.
”
Yeah! Thanks C@tmomma.
Much appreciated. 🙂
BTW, This is a Psephological site
Im sticking with the dems holding both houses. The senate by three and the house in single digits.
Results wont be clear for a while including contested outcomes in some seats.
Also re the governors. It would be delicious if Ron De Santis lost to Crist. It is very possible.
I can see a strong red wave in early counting in the US midterms followed by a gradual diminishing to a red trickle as the counts progress. Sure to rile up the MAGAs even if they, as appears most likely, take both Houses. God help America.
Stephen Jones’ announcement about the government’s policy to prescribe an “objective” for the superannuation system is merely political messaging- harmless but largely meaningless.
The idea of setting an “objective” was created by the previous government, and was essentially code for :“wicked industry funds (who we have tried to unsuccessfully nobble at every turn), should not be allowed to use their influence to affect the broader economy because that’s not what super’s for”.
Neatly, the new government is repurposing the idea of the “objective” as code for “the idea of super is to provide an adequate retirement income for workers, not to deliver windfall benefits to the wealthy” – a sentiment I completely support.
There’s never been any real ambiguity about the “objective” of super. When Keating introduced the SIS Act it wasn’t a random thought bubble. Of course that legislation had an “objective” or a set of objectives – and over the last 30 years, along with other elements of retirement incomes policy, those objectives (providing self funded broad based retirement income, separately from the old age pension) are largely being fulfilled. As if that wasn’t enough, the legislation itself has an express provision containing the so-called “sole purpose test” – ie the sole and exclusive objectives that a super fund can be maintained for. That “objective” has been around for more than 30 years.
However sometimes to get policy objectives through – especially those that might attract controversy if you presented them differently- a bit of political theatre is useful
I repeat roe vs wade isnt a passing fad.
This affects people in real time in the real world.
Nothing the media says will change that.
The “objective” of Superannuation is to provide a tax shelter for high income earners (at least according to the Coalition).
This was quite a surprise !!! We are actually worse than the US of A when it comes to the workers’ share of the economy.
Guess who has been keeping all the gains in productivity 🙁
It doesn’t look good for the USA no matter how the mid-terms go. The best outcome would be for the Democrats to win both Houses. If that happens, the Republicans and their supporters don’t accept the result and go completely spare. They probably won’t attack the Capitol again but it could still be ugly.
If the Republicans win either or both Houses, the legislative work of Government is essentially shut down. If they win they Senate, senior Federal appointments are also shut down. If they win the House, they’ll find an excuse to impeach the President.
Victoria @ 11.19am
Thoroughly agree, Roe vs Wade isn’t a fad.
However, the US Polling which I have seen and read suggests that it is not a priority for the majority of US voters.
One can only hope that all of the US voters, particularly women, who are incensed by or affected by the Supreme Court decision come out in droves and vote for their local Democratic or independent candidate.
Biden has committed to repealing the Supreme Court decision, but to do so he needs a substantial majority in the Congress & the Senate.
Poroti,
Not surprising. Resource extraction is highly capital intensive. Value adding is much more labour intensive, even primary processing. But the resources companies see that as diluting value.
OTOH, we do have a superannuation system that puts some of that total income back into workers hands via share ownership, so it’s not a straightforward comparison.
poroti
——-
It demonstrates how effective neo-liberalist policies have been in re-distributing income upwards.
Or, alternatively, how ineffective “left” parties have become.
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 11:43 am
It doesn’t look good for the USA no matter how the mid-terms go. The best outcome would be for the Democrats to win both Houses. If that happens, the Republicans and their supporters don’t accept the result and go completely spare. They probably won’t attack the Capitol again but it could still be ugly.
If the Republicans win either or both Houses, the legislative work of Government is essentially shut down. If they win they Senate, senior Federal appointments are also shut down. If they win the House, they’ll find an excuse to impeach the President.
______________________________________
I’ve been looking at some stuff on the late 60s and early 70s in the USA (mostly about the musical soundtrack, inextricably entwined with the politics). The arrogance of the right is that they think they can control the revolution. I would not be surprised that if/when they push too far, there will be a counter response on the left.
Antifa until now has been far more of a bogey-man than a real thing. The far right think they can not only push left-wing violence but win the civil war that follows. As happens time and again, the losers are often those most hung-ho for the violent action (Hitler, Putin, the antebellum south, etc).
The biggest challenge with the current US mid-terms is trying to distinguish between wishcasting and genuine polling. It’s sad when the two become so enmeshed due to an intentional effort to sway the public.
Thanks, BK.
brett says:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 10:55 am
Pocock wants to take some time and be sure that he’s doing his new job as well as he can.
We have enough Senators that are only there because of their party brand. They don’t have to think for themselves so it only takes them five seconds to work out how they’re going to vote.
I think it’s a healthy sign that Pocock is taking his responsibility seriously and given the alternative (Zed) I think we can all afford to wait and see.
There’s no point in making an enemy of a potential ally who isn’t going to agree on every point when the alternative is a hard no at every turn.
———————————————————————————————
I might’ve thought improved wages and industrial reform attempting to overturn the imbalance disenfranchising workers over the last decade would be a simple decision.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 at 11:19 am
I repeat roe vs wade isnt a passing fad.
This affects people in real time in the real world.
Nothing the media says will change that.
———————————————————————————————-
Surely if Roe v Wade is as big an issue as we think it is and should be then it’ll show up clearly in the voting? The question is, if it doesn’t, what does that tell us?
Excellent !
brett @ #77 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 10:55 am
They could take a lesson from Vic Labor who have maintained a great relationship with the non-cooker members of the crossbench.
At last! A distraction from Voice Busting!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/nov/08/australia-politics-news-live-updates-albanese-dutton-labor-cop27-floods-emergency-warnings-energy-coalition-ir-bill-covid-weather
Cronus @ #64 Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 10:28 am
32% Labor has no right to throw tantrums when asked to negotiate their legislation.
The Xbenchers, including Lambie and Pocock are showing that they don’t actually give a flying f*ck about real wages.
Boerwar is trying to impersonate a cooker. I’m not buying it.
Bloody weather here in The Cave. Winter seems to be lingering and grey gloomy skies keep returning after yet another ‘false dawn’ of Summer .
The total eclipse of the moon will be very close to the horizon here So the apparent size and color will be nicely enhanced and good photos on offer…………….if we get to see it 🙁 .