Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)

Familiar results on the budget and federal politics generally, plus a finding that Mark McGowan continues to reign supreme in Western Australia.

Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:

• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.

• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.

• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.

• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.

• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.

• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,198 comments on “Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 24
1 2 3 … 24

  1. UK Cartoons:
    Peter Brookes on #RishiSunak #COP27

    Martin Rowson on the rise in interest rate #RishiSunak #Integrity #PledgesShredded #SuellaBraveman

    Dave Brown on #RishiSunak #Integrity #PledgesShredded #ToryLies #ToriesUnfitToGovern

    Matt on #CostOfLivingCrisis #Mortgage

    Andy Davey: So #RishiSunack braces himself for the hike in interest rates, strapping himself to the mast of economic rectitude & the pound. Will the rate rise achieve anything or is it just to be seen to act?

    Christian Adams on @MarsUK #bounty #bountygate #BountysAreTheBest

  3. Wall Street Journal goes cuckoo for cross tabs on white suburban women (What can expect when the owner is a cooker)

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/3/2133348/-Wall-Street-Journal-goes-cuckoo-for-cross-tabs-on-white-suburban-women

    : NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Wednesday found essentially no change among suburban women in last couple months:

    -Suburban women in late Aug/early Sept—52D/ 35R

    -Suburban women now—53D/34 R

    Not to be outdone by all the garbage GOP polls swamping the aggregators, the Wall Street Journal used what was ostensibly a good poll of 1,500 people to make a fanciful claim that white suburban women have wholesale defected from Democrats.

    Based on a subsample of 150 women, the poll, conducted by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio and Democratic pollster John Anzalone, found that white women living in suburban areas now prefer generic Republican candidates by 15 points, a net shift of 27 points away from Democrats since the outlet’s August poll. The key issue driving the wholesale defection from Democrats was the economy, according to the poll.
    “

  4. From the BK files:

    Michael Gleeson reports that Essendon’s short-lived chief executive Andrew Thorburn has hired legal counsel and is pursuing legal action against the club after he was forced to resign. Thorburn’s position has hardened in recent times with the former banker believing the case is of religious discrimination and wanting satisfaction for damage to his reputation.
    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/thorburn-hires-lawyers-over-departure-as-essendon-ceo-20221103-p5bvh0.html

    I’ve opined this before, it’s not his religion that is his problem, it’s his bigotry and intolerance. If he wants to tie his religion to that, that’s up to him. Believing he has a religious get-out-of-trouble card doesn’t make it so. But trying a humorous thought on for size, if the club declares itself a religion, which for a popular footy club seems not much of a stretch, could that nullify the religious objection? And that brings up another idea, can you belong to more than one religion?

  6. Voters in California, Michigan, and Vermont will have the chance to amend their state constitutions to affirmatively include the right to an abortion, while Kentucky voters are being asked to amend their constitution to exclude that very same right. And in Montana, Republicans have placed a measure on the ballot designed to curtail the rights of families who experience the heartbreak of the birth of a non-viable baby. In fact, says Ballotpedia, this is the largest number of ballot measures addressing abortion in a single year, ever.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/3/2131409/-Abortion-and-reproductive-rights-are-on-the-ballot-in-these-five-states-literally

  7. Late Riser,
    You’ve brought up an interesting philosophical paradox and one which I have been wrestling with myself recently.

    The back story goes something like this .. my mother was 17 when she gave birth to me. She went to a Catholic school and wanted to have me christened as a Catholic. However, as she found out to her horror many years later, the church she booked me into for the christening was an Anglican church and not a Catholic church! The christening went ahead (I don’t think she understood the nuances of the differences in the christening service at her young age).

    However, at a later time, as appropriate, I received my Holy Communion and Confirmation in the Catholic Church.

    So, what am I? Catholic or Anglican? Or both?

  9. Mr Musk has got a bunch of people looking for alternatives to Twitter. I’m one of them. But it takes a surprising amount of time to find and get comfortable. Nevertheless, thank you to the bludger who put me onto mastodon. It’s interesting meeting new people. (Not that folks here are boring!) For tech oriented bludgers, mastodon is a federated system. The analogy they push is a telephone network. You join a “local” server and go from there. The world is connected. (I’ll give Tribel another go, soon.)

  11. Ven
    I reckon that if Sunak’s skin was white the facial caricature outline would be exactly the same. The style of the ancient figures obviously refers to COP being held in Egypt.

  13. “So, what am I? Catholic or Anglican? Or both?”
    I wouldn’t dare advise your faith. 🙂 Only “The Church” can do that. (/Sarcasm.) Why not be both? I am too young to remember, but the story I was told is that my mother’s sister kidnapped me as a baby and took me to get baptised. I never learned which church. But the story goes that my parents managed to “save me from the church” and bring me home. I’m a heathen still. But it’s funny when you think about it. Why would my parents have cared? Yet clearly, they did. This religion stuff is insidious.

  15. ”
    BKsays:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 10:22 am
    Ven
    I reckon that if Sunak’s skin was white the facial caricature outline would be exactly the same. The style of the ancient figures obviously refers to COP being held in Egypt.
    ”

    Ancient Egyptians were portrayed as dark skinned.
    Ancient Egyptians people in Hollywood movies and Cartoons were portrayed as dark and some sort of caricatures.
    Sunak suited that caricature because of his skin.

    Remember how Serena Williams portrayal of her lips and bum was considered racist by some people.
    It doesn’t bother me how Sunak is caricatured.

  16. C@t
    From previous thread:

    C@tmomma says:

    I’m sorry but Ven is skating on thin ice with me today. They’re also supporting the Retail and Fast Food Workers Union, a bunch of sad clowns who are trying to undercut the real union for supermarket and fast food workers. It is the RAFFWU that negotiated a deal with Dominoes for below Minimum Wage pay. The SDA or the AWU would never do that. And then Ven invites Red Clyde and wranslide to take a whack. I’m pissed off and proud to say I support real unions and not crews masquerading as one in order to negotiate pay down and conditions away for the most vulnerable workers in our society!

    Is this true?

    I was going to write a blistering (sic – see below) motion to my local branch, because the article that BK posted specifically said it was the SDA.

    Sorry to be so late, and to have not read through the previous thread – Shingles not much fun, although catching it early means that the rash is subsiding without the usual crusting etc.

    Cronus, I will post more later.

  17. Simon Katich @ #64 Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 10:27 am

    C@t, did you see my link to the GIS showing behind the lines partisan activity?
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/032e50755305481a88f421b6543e3295

    Russia will continue to try to weed this out with their very unpleasant methods.

    Thanks, I’ll look at it now.

    Of course, since the Russian Military leader became the guy who suppressed the uprising in Syria, they have started using similar tactics in Ukraine. Bomb it back to the stone age and break the will of the people so they demand the Ukrainian leadership concede to Putin. Yet, as I have also heard from the mouths of Ukrainians themselves, they will never surrender to Putin. I guess we just have to wait and see. And a lot of the resdult there will be down to the Repugs in the House in America, should they win back the House in the Mid Terms.

  18. Douglas and Milko,
    We seem to have not agreed on who it was that caused the Dominos’ workers to be underpaid. My reading of the article suggests Dominos altered it in their books to reflect a new Enterprise Agreement that paid below Award wages and when the SDA inspected their books, as they are allowed to do, they discovered it. Then the legal action against Dominos was launched to recoup the unpaid wage theft money. We just can’t agree which union is championing the Workers’ cause. The SDA or the RAFFWU. I doubt the RAFFWU would have access to the books because they are an unregistered union.

  21. Before the last election Phil Coorey did admit that he had to put food on the table too,
    but his cowardice seems to have no bounds .
    his assertion that potato head has found his line and length is laughable .
    so far Albo and co have been dispatching his deliveries to and over the boundary with ease.

  23. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 10:14 am

    Late Riser,
    You’ve brought up an interesting philosophical paradox and one which I have been wrestling with myself recently.

    The back story goes something like this .. my mother was 17 when she gave birth to me. She went to a Catholic school and wanted to have me christened as a Catholic. However, as she found out to her horror many years later, the church she booked me into for the christening was an Anglican church and not a Catholic church! The christening went ahead (I don’t think she understood the nuances of the differences in the christening service at her young age).

    However, at a later time, as appropriate, I received my Holy Communion and Confirmation in the Catholic Church.

    So, what am I? Catholic or Anglican? Or both?
    中华人民共和国

    Well IMHO your a confirmed Mick but if you want to say your Anglican it’s ok. My family (except the old man who is “Calathumpian”) are Catholics. But my brother became a Buddhist at the age of 20. My wife is Taoist and whilst my kids have been baptised Catholic go to temple with my wifes Mother when in Singapore.

    As for me, I reckon I’m a Mick. I pray to the big bloke upstairs (sorry LR) and I find comfort. I rarely go to mass but I do see our local priest, who has been living among the poor in Bangkok for 50 years, most weeks or so for some volunteer work. During COVID “WE” did over 15,000 free meals for slum dwellers.

    The “WE” is a group mainly made up of Buddhists but we have Catholics, Muslims and people with a good heart (but no Protestants that I know of).

    In Thailand, as a foreigner, even to volunteer we need to get a special work permit (it’s considered work).

    So dear C@t – as I’ve said before your a good stick. Your heart is in the right place (take the arrows slung at you here as a badge of courage). So you can be whatever you want!

  24. None of Your Beeswax @ #69 Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 10:45 am

    C@t….a considered opinion on what the US mid term elections and Repug victory, might mean to US aid to Ukraine…..spoiler alert….not much

    I am just going on the words of Kevin McCarthy, who may become Speaker of the House who said a couple of weeks ago that the Republicans are going to have to ‘consider’ how much is being spent by the US supporting the war in Ukraine.

    So, if the Authorisation Bill doesn’t come up from the House, or it comes up much trimmed, then that’s all they can allocate?

  25. Griff @ #71 Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 11:03 am

    From an article back in 2019 – https://7news.com.au/business/markets/dominos-to-be-hit-by-class-action-lawsuit-c-182975

    Thanks for that, Griff. So, it sorts it out. The SDA negotiated an EB agreement with Dominos that ended in 2013 but Dominos kept using it through 2018. The RAFFWU did the forensic audit which discovered the bait and switch and Therium funded the class action. Which is coming to its fruition now.

    So, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. And I apologise to Ven. 🙂

  26. on Andrews do we acspect when he wins he will hand over half way through to jasinta alan as his successor that would be helpful as andrews has had a solid run and maybi could then go ffederal or mcgowan

  27. This is a positive move.

    It might stop some people signing Mum and Dad up as directors.

    Company directors scrambling to get ID or face $13,000 fine in bid to stop ‘dummy directors’

    More than 1 million people could become ineligible to run companies by the end of this month — and face fines of up to $13,000 — as the Australian Taxation Office introduces a new hurdle to crack down on “dummy directors” and the practice of “phoenixing”. 

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-04/director-ids-dins-tax-dummy-directors-phoenix-ato-asic/101608094

  28. Ven

    Cartoonists live by their pictorial abstractions and distortions. The moral evidence in reading cartoons has to do more with the viewer’s world view than possibly anything that was in the cartoonist’s mind. A disagreement about whether a particular cartoon is racist then becomes an argument about which world view is valid and which person has superior knowledge of what is happening in the cartoonist’s mind.

    Sunak’s dancing relates to the way Sunak has become an 180 degree switcharoo policy. Sunak’s dance relates to Egyptian dance style and to Egypt’s COP. Sunak’s skin is dark. As a cosmopolitan empire, ancient Egypt sported the full range of skin colours. Drawing Sunak as white would really set the bees buzzing. (There are those who think he is really only a white Tory in a dark skin so drawing him as white might be apt.) Sunak has a larger than average nose and the caricature is recognizably Sunak.

    My pet cartoon peeve at the moment is the way in which US cartoonists are so accurately mirroring the caricaturing of US political debates into a simplistic donkey v elephant, Woke v Evil world.

  30. C@t still at it this morning with your misrepresentations about Domino’s and the SDA even though you were proven wrong yesterday and admitted you didn’t even read the article.

    Douglas and Milko please be careful submitting motions based on what c@t posts.

  32. AAron newton @ #76 Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 11:19 am

    on Andrews do we acspect when he wins he will hand over half way through to jasinta alan as his successor that would be helpful as andrews has had a solid run and maybi could then go ffederal or mcgowan

    Yes I think he will hand over – but no I can’t see him wanting to go to Canberra and deal with Labors Queensland and NSW federal hacks.

  33. wranslide @ #80 Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 11:35 am

    C@t still at it this morning with your misrepresentations about Domino’s and the SDA even though you were proven wrong yesterday and admitted you didn’t even read the article.

    Douglas and Milko please be careful submitting motions based on what c@t posts.

    The SDA is a sham union. It’s a front for a conservative power block in the Labor party.

  35. Not to be outdone by all the garbage GOP polls swamping the aggregators

    Ven, if you take the reputable non GOP pollsters in the generic ballot of late….
    Suffolk R +5
    Quinnipiac R+3
    Emerson R+5
    Marist EVEN
    Yougov EVEN (latest only)

    There is still plenty of room for Dems to keep control of Senate and even the House and hopefully some important other elections in the only poll that counts.

  36. C@tmomma says:

    So, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. And I apologise to Ven
    ________
    People with more than half a brain knew you were wrong yesterday.

  38. Transfers from the State to the Federal spheres seem to happen much less often than predicted and when they do their success is mixed at best.

  39. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 11:21 am
    Ven

    Cartoonists live by their pictorial abstractions and distortions. The moral evidence in reading cartoons has to do more with the viewer’s world view than possibly anything that was in the cartoonist’s mind. A disagreement about whether a particular cartoon is racist then becomes an argument about which world view is valid and which person has superior knowledge of what is happening in the cartoonist’s mind.

    Very well put BW. The assumptions as to what was in a cartoonist’s mind are very much a figment of the accuser’s imagination in many cases.

    I think the whole focus on racism generally has been blown out of all proportion in recent times. Of course it still exists and should be called out, but the tendency to see it in situations where it clearly isn’t is a modern day phenomenon which is not helping the overall cause IMO.

  40. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 11:37 am

    wranslide @ #80 Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 11:35 am

    C@t still at it this morning with your misrepresentations about Domino’s and the SDA even though you were proven wrong yesterday and admitted you didn’t even read the article.

    Douglas and Milko please be careful submitting motions based on what c@t posts.

    The SDA is a sham union. It’s a front for a conservative power block in the Labor party.
    中华人民共和国
    Says the bloke who wants to stop $430 billion in exports!

  41. Really interesting take in one of the recent pod save america pods, where I think it was Tommy Vitor / Vetor? Was worried wtte that the Dems having become the defenders of the status quo, risked losing to the republicans those who feel betrayed by the status quo.

    I think the ALP is running the same risk although in a different context. The USA in many ways is already across the rubicon and at risk of burning it behind them on Tuesday. We might be on the path to it, but it still lies in front of us.

  43. shellbell says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 11:59 am

    Applying for the director ID tested my computer skills to the max.

    Hitting every button and swearing do the trick again.
    中华人民共和国
    Did mine a few months back. It’s worse living outside of Oz!

  44. That Sunak cartoon is commenting on his U-turn regarding attending COP 27 in Egypt, using mock-ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics. The face of the figure in the hieroglyph is a caricature of Mr Sunak. It is darker skinned, like Mr Sunak, and dressed up as what the casual reader (but maybe not an archeologist) would recognise as an ancient Egyptian.

    It’s all in the eye of the beholder, of course. For example, Mark Knight’s infamous cartoon of Serena Williams throwing a tantrum leaped out to me as racist, not necessarily intentionally so. Others had a different reaction. On the other hand, I find the hieroglyphic cartoon amusing, not at all racist either towards Egyptians, modern or ancient, or towards Mr Sunak. Again, others may differ.

  45. S777
    One line of argument then was that x had a history of penning racist cartoons. x did a cartoon involving a person of colour therefore this cartoon must be racist.
    One difficulty is historical context – both in the ‘messaging’ and in the context.
    Cartoonists working Jewish caricatures from the turn of the century, IMO, helped feed the Moloch.
    How would a cartoonist approach an Israeli public figure who had a largish hooked nose and, say, a gnomish figure. This also goes to the heart of the discussion re Williams toon and it is approaching the same discussion space as the Sunak toon.
    What happens when an individual’s facial features neatly dovetail with historical cartoons that caricatured, say, African Americans and which fed into slavery, Jim Crow and the history of lynching?

  46. at least the social culture wariors have mostly left the leadership of shoppies union but if the union had realy changed they would force donnely out now and not give himfour more years in the upper house in nsw to attack abortion trans gender and make sexist coments its not good imo to let him finish his term especialy he has been there since 2005 if bernie smith and dwier were serious they could convince him to resign posiblysend hikm of to rome so no more adam searle but four mor years of the most sexist mp in parliament

  47. at least donnely is doing good work on exposing reajonal health it is clear that the rafwu is sticking up for dominoes workers and the sda arewith dominoes i remembber in 2012 chris ketter the succesor to hogg in qld when he was going to be defeated buy his members sacked the union oficial chalinging him

  49. I see the SDA fetishists can’t leave it alone. We have had a decade of union-busting legislation, regulation and police action. Silence.
    The SDA…. endless logorrhea.

  50. i am suprised whiy the shoppies union bosis tend to last decades michael donovon has been victorian secretary since 1996 this smith guy since 2014 and has been uselis think dwier wshhould hand over to josh peak who could be a future mp don farell has made litle contrabution in federal parliament has made no progress on the china trade tentions

Comments Page 2 of 24
1 2 3 … 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *