Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:
• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.
• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.
• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.
• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.
• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.
• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.
Oliver Sutton @ #900 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 10:20 pm
I had the same hopeful thought. I’ll be looking for her to reappear.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 11:14 pm
Sorry I introduced more than one element into my argument, I should have realised it would too much for you.
A link for US mid-term followers:
Note: It tracks tweets about the midterm election. And I’ve never used it before, so cannot recommend or otherwise.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 11:20 pm
Yep, I can’t imagine, delete Twitter account, would be very high on her to do list if she was really crook.
Someone concerned about the environment definitely should decide to pull up the drawbridge to Fortress Australia. That will fix it!
I recall Player One being in lock step with a minor party that has this as a signature policy. Was it Sustainable Australia?
It’s nearly bed time, but this thought on the US midterms polling is plausible.
Rakali @ Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 11:16 pm
“We only have a ‘growing population’ because it’s a political decision to have an endlessly expanding population to increase the profits of the industrial elite and as a lazy economic stimulus for the political benefit of our pretty thick and amoral political class.
The uniqueness and fragility and age of Australia never enters into consideration in the exploitative settler attitude.
What is the settler density you want for Australia? Java? Vietnam? France? England?”
I want us to work out that we are on a planet with an ecosystem that doesn’t wave flags.
“Tingle might simply be one of the horde of Twitter deserters”
“Yep, I can’t imagine, delete Twitter account, would be very high on her to do list if she was really crook.”
____
That makes sense, except you don’t have to delete your account if you’re merely moving to another platform. You lose your old tweets, and you have no way of letting people know where to find you. Anyway, no point gossiping. I hope she turns up soon.
Griff
“I want us to work out that we are on a planet with an ecosystem that doesn’t wave flags.”
————
Bully for you. Flags can be a joyous bits of nonsense.
Given that flag waving is a peculiarly human occupation, i suspect in the longer term it will not be a productive activity.
I can’t imagine that humans will put up with the short term inconvenience to their current lazy living to keep warming below 1.5c, much less to keep it limit it to 2.0c.
Rakali @ Monday, November 7, 2022 at 12:23 am
There we have it. It’s global. So let’s consider immigration in that light. If we are concerned about global population growth, then the strongest predictor for a declining brith rate, so far as I am aware, is female education. That is the target.
p.s humans typically are busy primate.
Griff
There we have it. It’s global…
——-
So there’s no requirement for local response to an ancient land, wirh an ancient culture, and a unique biosphere?
Sounds, to stupid old me, like the same old insensitive imperialism to me!
An independent review of our migration system is clearly overdue. I suspect some uncomfortable questions ahead for Dutton and co.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-migration-agent-and-the-liberal-ministers-how-one-man-gamed-australia-s-visa-system-20221104-p5bvjm.html
Confessions
Its like Amanda Vanstone and the Madaferri visas all over again.
What is it with the Liberal Party and drug dealers? I wonder if they served lobster?
Late Riser @ #906 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 11:42 pm
And the zone has been flooded by conservative billionaires that have set up polling companies.
And here lies Social Media…
“By default, people will believe anything they see or hear,” says Stephan Lewandowsky, a cognitive psychologist at the University of Bristol who specialises in understanding how people respond to corrections of misinformation. In our day-to-day lives, “that makes a lot of sense because most things that we’re exposed to are true,” he says.
At the same time, the more we see something repeated, the more likely we are to believe it to be true. This “illusory truth effect” arises because we use familiarity and ease of understanding as a shorthand for truth – the more something is repeated, the more familiar and fluent it feels whether it is misinformation or fact.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/why-do-our-brains-believe-lies-even-when-we-ve-been-told-the-truth-20221104-p5bvox.html
One of the things that kept Labor out of power in NSW for a decade was that when shenanigans like Obeid’s behaviour were found, trials and jail followed.
Labor needs to do the same with some figures from the Morrison era. The behaviour behind this carbon credit scam damaged the scheme, costing legitimate producers millions. I did some work for one of the later in WA. This behaviour looks a lot like fraud, with a clear financial motive. Reporting corruption alone does not satisfy public anger.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/07/forest-regeneration-that-earned-multimillion-dollar-carbon-credits-resulted-in-fewer-trees-analysis-finds
Socrates:
I suspect it’s a case of ‘wherever the money flows…’
Socrates @ #798 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 6:17 am
Do you know what I really think it is? The Liberal Party don’t mind them because those people are successful capitalists. Of course they will distance themselves with all alacrity if the connection is exposed. The Liberals also use the capture of the little fish to be the anti publicity they retail. But if you donate bigly to the Liberal Party and keep your head down, step up and have a photo with the leader of the party.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/04/polls-federal-and-wa-leaders-budget-response-foreign-policy-open-thread/comment-page-19/#comment-4005532
… well the [Fibs/ Nats] tried BS, religion, slavery, Darwinism alcohol – even prohibition – and so on to drugs, financial services’ extreme disaster capitalism, nothing can fill their malcontent emptiness, nuthink they won’t try let alone comtemplate, meanwhile the flogging of have nots will continue till haves morale improves.
Send out some crims to justify … and rough up the unions.
How to not advance Australia, fair.
Forget progressive, just regressive and repressive with daily instructions from Murdoch Infotainment moving around much of the Anglosaxon world like locusts.
“Imagine you woke up after the 2024 U.S. presidential election and found that Donald Trump had been re-elected and chose Rudy Giuliani for attorney general, Michael Flynn for defense secretary, Steve Bannon for commerce secretary, evangelical leader James Dobson for education secretary, Proud Boys former leader Enrique Tarrio for homeland security head and Marjorie Taylor Greene for the White House spokeswoman.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/opinion/israel-netanyahu.html
Socrates @ #897 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 11:13 pm
Against my better judgement I will listen to his speech but nothing will ever wipe away from my memory the way Hugh White bolstered John Howard’s case that Saddam Hussein had WMD and that was cause enough to send our soldiers to war in Iraq. Something many are still suffering from today. And Hugh White, in his comfortable ivory tower in Canberra, isn’t. Which no apology will ever compensate for. Give me the perspective of former Penny Wong and Labor foreign affairs adviser, Allan Behm, any day.
But because it’s you, Socrates, I will listen.
I’ll also add that your summary indicates a fatalist position. That’s too easy. But we’ll see. It also seems to be what Labor are already doing but also walking and chewing gum at the same time, in that they are seeking to maximise relationships in a multi-faceted way. Something it seems that Hugh White doesn’t countenance, but as I say I’ll see what he has to say.
The Century of Humiliation is the period of Chinese history starting with Britain’s defeat of China in the First Opium War, fought from 1839 until 1842, and ending with the founding of The People’s Republic of China in 1949
https://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/10/how-humiliation-drove-modern-chinese-history/280878/
If you treat China like the enemy, China will become the enemy. Negative interactions are much more powerful than positive interactions.
Jethro Tull – Thick as a Brick concert – Hordern Pavlova, Sydney.
Most entertaining rock concert of 1972.
$3.50 for best seats in the joint.
Those were the days when casually working High School students could afford to buy tickets.
Haven’t seen the Tull in concert since 2015 (I think) @ State Theatre.
Aqualung & Songs from the Woods their best recordings.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Nick McKenzie and Amelia Ballinger reveal that a company run by Jack Ta, who boasted of “cosy” dinners with former Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton, has been used by more than a dozen drug offenders to remain in Australia on bogus asylum seeker claims.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-migration-agent-and-the-liberal-ministers-how-one-man-gamed-australia-s-visa-system-20221104-p5bvjm.html
And they tell us that the home affairs minister, Claire O’Neill, says criminals are getting into Australia as corrupt agents, and education institutions help traffic sex slaves. But legitimate workers can’t find their way through the system. She has flagged an investigation.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-state-of-disrepair-home-affairs-minister-slams-immigration-system-20221104-p5bvjn.html
Skilled occupation lists could be axed and hundreds of visa sub-categories slashed to make way for a demand-driven immigration system where businesses have a greater role in determining what jobs are in short supply, explain Michael Read and Tom McIlroy.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/gutsy-immigration-review-flags-bigger-industry-role-20221105-p5bvtk
In this interesting contribution, George Brandis writes about how the Senate’s estimates committees have become such an important forum in which the details of numerous affairs and scandals are revealed or prosecuted.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-forgotten-tricyclist-who-left-his-mark-on-our-democracy-20221103-p5bvey.html
Hooray! 9Fax breaks its duck on the royal commission here as Darren O’Donovan says that every Australian has a stake in learning from the robodebt scandal. And it’s a very good read.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/every-australian-has-a-stake-in-learning-from-the-robo-debt-scandal-20221106-p5bvx1.html
Karen Barlow writes that Labor frontbencher Katy Gallagher has recommitted the Albanese government to bringing the restoration of territory rights to a Senate vote before the end of the year, as ACT crossbencher David Pocock raised concerns the “best chance” to upend the 25-year-old ban was “about to slip away”.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7965004/pocock-concerned-best-shot-to-restore-territory-rights-will-slip-away/?cs=14329
“Why is it easier to imagine another Indigenous child’s death than to disrupt our plans?”, ponders a thoughtful Sean Kelly.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-is-it-easier-to-imagine-another-indigenous-child-s-death-than-to-disrupt-our-plans-20221104-p5bvqv.html
Ross Gittins explains how we’re used to using the consumer price index (CPI) as a measure of the cost of living. But the bureau knows it’s not. So, a week later, it always issues its living-cost indexes for key household types – which the media always ignore.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-cost-of-living-isn-t-as-high-as-we-ve-been-told-20221106-p5bvxd.html
ASIC’s Joe Longo has warned of the risk that rising interest rates and any sharp deterioration in the economy could cause some highly leveraged companies to collapse, while also squeezing consumers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/failures-and-job-losses-asic-eyes-risk-of-company-collapses-if-economy-sours-20221104-p5bvq2.html
Australia is lagging behind other Western nations in protecting press freedom and the Albanese government should consider going further than the recommendations of a parliamentary inquiry in overhauling federal search warrant laws, legal experts say. Michaela Whitbourn explains the committee’s recommendations.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-lagging-behind-on-press-freedom-experts-20221104-p5bvo7.html
Dennis Muller argues that the attacks on Dan Andrews are part of News Corporation’s long abuse of power.
https://theconversation.com/attacks-on-dan-andrews-are-part-of-news-corporations-long-abuse-of-power-194023
Melissa Cunningham reports that Victorians are waiting up to six months for crucial scans as record demand and ongoing staff shortages force wait times for vital health checks to blow out.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/cancers-diagnosed-late-as-worker-shortages-blow-out-medical-scan-waitlists-20221106-p5bvwd.html
ABC managing director David Anderson is planning to overhaul the way programs are commissioned in a review that could result in the most significant change to the public broadcaster’s structure since 2017. According t Zoe Samios, ABC sources, who requested anonymity to speak freely, said Anderson told a meeting of about 50 managers last Thursday that he planned to alter the broadcaster’s structure in an effort to improve processes around how content is commissioned and delivered to audiences, and to focus on growing the ABC’s digital platforms.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/abc-boss-david-anderson-to-restructure-organisation-shift-to-bbc-model-20221106-p5bvxo.html
Projects meant to regenerate Australia’s outback forests to store carbon dioxide have been awarded millions of carbon credits – worth hundreds of millions of dollars – despite total tree and shrub cover in those areas having declined, a new analysis has found. Adam Morton report that this is the latest claim that raises doubts about the integrity of Australia’s carbon credit system, which the federal government and polluting businesses rely on to meet targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/07/forest-regeneration-that-earned-multimillion-dollar-carbon-credits-resulted-in-fewer-trees-analysis-finds
Tomorrow evening people across Australia and New Zealand will be treated to a total lunar eclipse, weather permitting. It’s an opportunity to not be missed, as the next one won’t be visible from our region until 2025.
https://theconversation.com/a-total-lunar-eclipse-is-set-to-dazzle-tomorrow-along-with-some-other-stellar-sights-192734
Dennis Argall reckons Prime Minister Albanese has little understanding of regional issues.
https://johnmenadue.com/prime-minister-albanese-has-little-understanding-of-regional-issues/
Richard Sima explains why our brains believe lies even when we’ve been told the truth.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/why-do-our-brains-believe-lies-even-when-we-ve-been-told-the-truth-20221104-p5bvox.html
British police say evidence revealed “an extreme right-wing motivation” behind an attack last week at an immigration centre on the English coast, describing it as “a terrorist incident”.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bomb-attack-on-british-migrant-centre-fuelled-by-extreme-right-motive-20221106-p5bvwr.html
Greg Sheridan writes about what he describes as “Midterm mayhem in the Divided States of America”.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/midterm-mayhem-in-the-divided-states-of-america/news-story/c7e98d44e861fdf5a45e6dd5a39ca58f
The results of the midterms may determine if American democracy endures, writes Robert Reich.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/06/robert-reich-2022-midterms-can-democracy-endure
Farrah Tomazin opines that what happens in Nevada will shape the US in next two years. The US is really sick!
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-in-nevada-will-shape-the-us-in-next-two-years-20221105-p5bvs7.html
“The Irish poet W. B. Yeats could have had the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in mind when he wrote, ‘Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold.’”, writes John Queripel about the U.S midterms being set against a fractured nation.
https://johnmenadue.com/u-s-midterms-set-against-a-fractured-nation/
Boris Johnson would have forfeited earnings of at least £10m a year from speeches and sales of his memoirs if he had fought a leadership battle against Rishi Sunak and lost, according to informed sources in the entertainment industry, who believe financial considerations played a part in his decision to pull out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/06/boris-johnson-quit-pm-race-over-risk-to-10m-earnings-sources-say
Italy’s new Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s inaugural address confirmed a neoliberal agenda that will serve the rich and powerful and exploit low-wage workers, writes Adriano Tedde.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/far-right-neoliberal-agendas-a-threat-to-democracy,16931
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Socrates says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 6:23 am
One of the things that kept Labor out of power in NSW for a decade was that when shenanigans like Obeid’s behaviour were found, trials and jail followed.
Labor needs to do the same with some figures from the Morrison era. The behaviour behind this carbon credit scam damaged the scheme, costing legitimate producers millions.
———
I’d suggest that the main thing that has kept Labor out of power in NSW for a decade is the stench of the industrial level corruption and dysfunction that became so visible in its last term of government. There is, not surprisingly, a severe and lasting electoral penalty when any political party is seen to be entrenched in corrupt activity- especially the sort that involves misappropriation of public resources for private benefit.
Needless to say there’s no shortage of corruption on the conservative side of politics either. Given our media environment, and the default settings of our political culture are well to the right of the midpoint, it takes a lot more for corruption by conservatives to be broadly reported, and if it is, to be labelled as corruption.
If a Labor government pursues corruption by its conservative predecessors it is accused of carrying out a witch hunt (and itself alleged to be abusing the instruments of State to serve political ends). And in the post truth era, conservatives are emboldened to deny that there’s anything wrong with what they’ve done and that they are in fact the victims, and those claims are amplified (Poor Gladys. Isn’t it dreadful what was done to her by ICAC?)
the republicans seems to trump that they wont acsept any elections unles its froard this is very dangerous if people do not trust a democratic election this buys in to any dictator that us cant coment because there elections is riged to
Socrates says:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 10:49 pm
Cronus
Interesting re Dutton and the alleged visa scam.
No doubt you recall the former case of immigration minister Amanda Vanstone in the Howard regime who gave visas to a Liberal donor linked by Italian police to the mafia and later convicted of one of Australia’s largest drug busts.
——————————————————————————————-
Good memory, I do recall that issue.
Given the authority and information available to him, at best Dutton was incredibly lazy and stupid or any worst, knew exactly what he (and his deputy) was doing in this recent situation. He’s making a habit of mixing with some unsavoury characters.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-corrupt-link-to-drug-kingpin,12371
https://twitter.com/qldaah/status/1170211854007730176?lang=en
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/the-baddest-mp-dutton-blasted-for-appearing-in-car-dealership-rap-promo/zvx4cg32y
so now mckenzey is turning on dutton maybi he is still reliying on his mate anthony byrne who helped him with somyurek jason wood has made his corear on tough on crime especialy drugs and was the key in the african gangs scare dutton has also made a big deal about taking on drug dealers if wood was labor he would be forced out
Socrates says:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 10:59 pm
Cronus and any of the Pollbludger national security wonks,
One good thing about forgone conclusion cricket games is that they give you a chance to listen to podcasts. Three months old but I recommend:
This is going to be different: Learning to live with Chinese power
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2396jbJjP0
——————————————————————————————-
Thanks Socrates
I’ll listen to this today.
“ Another of Russia’s senior military commanders has reportedly been replaced as Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine continues to flounder.
On Sunday night, Australian time, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence shared intelligence that General Alexander Lapin, head of Russia’s Central Military District, had been removed from his position.”
https://www.news.com.au/world/russian-general-alexander-lapin-removed-from-command-months-after-putin-labelled-him-hero-of-russia/news-story/bbe4d510b1ab12403a5fa23963d54f73
I hope the US knows what it is doing, “privately” urging Ukraine to walk back its insistence on treating Putin as the pariah he really is, then leaking it to the Washington Post:
“ US officials have reportedly warned the Ukrainian government in private that it needs to signal an openness to negotiating with Russia.
Officials in Washington have warned that “Ukraine fatigue” among allies could worsen if Kyiv continues to be closed to negotiations, the Washington Post reported. US officials told the paper that Ukraine’s position on negotiations with Russia is wearing thin among allies who are worried about the economic effects of a protracted war.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report
===========================================================
The West’s whole approach to getting Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine has centred upon threatening Russia with escalating economic pain for as long as they persist with their invasion. This is meant to exert pressure upon Putin’s regime to come to its senses. But pressure tactics like this are undermined when the object of said pressure sees a real prospect it may soon be relieved. Does this development risk this? I think so.
this begs the qquestion if mckenzey new this before election whiy did he waight until wood was out of government if it was labor the age would have released this while in government
Thanks so much BK
C@tmomma says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 6:20 am
Late Riser @ #906 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 11:42 pm
It’s nearly bed time, but this thought on the US midterms polling is plausible.
Bob Trice
@BobTrice
Replying to
@cbouzy
These “polls” are setting the narrative that GOP should win and if they don’t it is because of fraud.
7:57 AM · Nov 6, 2022
·Twitter for iPhone
And the zone has been flooded by conservative billionaires that have set up polling companies.
——————————————————————————————-
The inevitable result of continually undermining election results will be anarchy across the US with enormous unintended consequences. It’s a truly insane methodology that threatens, if successful, to let loose genies that’ll never be returned to their bottles.
Norway plans sanctuary for ‘spy’ whale Hvaldimir who came in from cold
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/06/norway-plans-sanctuary-for-spy-whale-hvaldimir-who-came-in-from-cold
it seems the us wants ucrane to give up even more teritory to rusia and realy does not care about ucrane at all the same with afghanistan trumps envoy addmitted the talaban were all ways coming back but to save face kalillzad wanted them to agree to elections that he believed they would win but first form a transitional government if there was an election american could then argue theit was a bad result but unfortunately the taliban won lagitemetly kalilzad said the same thing at begining of ucrane war they mustgive in to rusia he was bushes un ambasada and trumps rep on afghanistan
‘Macarthur says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 7:21 am
I hope the US knows what it is doing, “privately” urging Ukraine to walk back its insistence on treating Putin as the pariah he really is, then leaking it to the Washington Post:
“ US officials have reportedly warned the Ukrainian government in private that it needs to signal an openness to negotiating with Russia.
Officials in Washington have warned that “Ukraine fatigue” among allies could worsen if Kyiv continues to be closed to negotiations, the Washington Post reported. US officials told the paper that Ukraine’s position on negotiations with Russia is wearing thin among allies who are worried about the economic effects of a protracted war.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report
===========================================================
The West’s whole approach to getting Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine has centred upon threatening Russia with escalating economic pain for as long as they persist with their invasion. This is meant to exert pressure upon Putin’s regime to come to its senses. But pressure tactics like this are undermined when the object of said pressure sees a real prospect it may soon be relieved. Does this development risk this? I think so.’
=============================
—————————
Thanks for this Macarthur. I believe your conclusion is sound.
That said, each nation will always pursue what it believes to be its own national interest and it is rare for any two nations, including for example Ukraine and the USA, to have the exactly the same national interest. Tensions arise where the overlaps stop. Putin has obviously been trying to increase the severity of those tensions.
If USA policy makers believe that a negotiated settlement is inevitable then the next step is for them to make a national interest decision on the optimum timing. What has the USA got to gain from extending the war indefinitely? What might happen if Putin succeeds in using Autumn mud and Spring thaw to train and arm his conscripts? What happens if the Kharkiv Counter Offensive runs out of puff and the Dnipro Line, with its contested crossings, proves too expensive in men for Ukraine? What happens is the balance in the House and the Senate swerves to the GOP?
ASIC eyeing Company failures (says a headline)
The very real problem was the previous government kicking the can down the road by changing legislation to allow insolvent Companies to continue to trade (at risk to those the insolvent Company was trading with, so bad debt on the books of solvent Companies, bad debt which may bring them down so a domino effect when the insolvent Company is finally declared insolvent)
And then Directors trading an insolvent Company
This change of legislation promoted by the failed treasurer, Frydenberg, was very, very dangerous legislation and should never have been considered
The impact will come home to roost
Class action?
Everyone has the right to assume that the Company they trade with is solvent so able to meet its dues as and when they are due
And to trade an insolvent Company is a crime
To change that criteria was beyond belief – benefiting who exactly
It’s the same as a recession following the introduction of the GST, then giving stimulation to the housing market to evade that recession
We all know how that turned out
No doubt the Tories will say Company failures are due to a Labor government impacting on the Tories business demographic
And the media will gobble it up (noting the failed media Companies which abound)
ChattyCathyPRGuysGrandma @ChattyCathyAU
Albo is going to to COP27 – Airbus Albo
Albo is not going to COP27 – Piker Albo
Hwga
I recall the legislation being introduced. Inter alia, it completely negated any possible sense of competence or of ethical substance in Frydenberg.
I notice that Bandt and Thorpe have stopped issuing media releases.
The Voice Busters have gone to ground.
They have not changed their views.
UnAustralian: The Liberal parties leading propaganda piece The Herald Sun has today alleged that Victorian Premier Dan Andrews has links to former American President John F Kennedy’s assassination. The alleged links come despite Premier Andrews having been born in 1972, a full 9 years after the Kennedy assassination.
”We at The Herald are demanding Dan Andrews resign today,” said a Spokesperson for the Newspaper. ”How dare he swan about with the blood of JFK on his hands.” ”Sure, JFK was a Democrat but still, murder is murder.”
Everything was fine when the Boomer generation ran things. These young fellas do not have a clue.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/06/britain-is-ona-highway-to-hell-and-the-tories-are-about-to-make-life-even-harder
Cronus @ #815 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 7:20 am
Putin is rearranging the deckchairs on the Battleship Potemkin.
Rakali @ Monday, November 7, 2022 at 12:42 am
“So there’s no requirement for local response to an ancient land, wirh an ancient culture, and a unique biosphere?
Sounds, to stupid old me, like the same old insensitive imperialism to me!”
As I said earlier, the ecosystem doesn’t wave a flag. Local responses are fine, so long as we respond to global needs. The world that the next generation inherits will be no picnic.
#weatheronPB
the trees stand ready,
branches raised in still suspense,
waiting, willing to embrace
Oh, Socrates. Where to begin with that smooth-talking load of guff from Hugh White? So many heroic assumptions, seemingly not based upon actual evidence.
I took notes and I will talk with you about the presentation when you return.
Macca RB, Songs from the Wood on the cassette player cruising up the North Coast brings back memories.
If you want to know how the teaching profession is getting on, nip over to Reddit and look into r/AustralianTeachers to see what ails us these days.
Not a lot of joy there.
In relation to senior commanders, there are no longer stories of them dying at the Front. So the Russians have obviously adapted to whatever it was that was rendering senior commanders vulnerable.
There are probably two main reasons why Putin is sacking senior commanders. The first is incompetence. The second is suspect loyalty. He probably does not worry about a corrupt senior commander who is delivering results.
The pace of sackings seems to have slowed.
There is a cogent argument that, in principle, senior commanders should be replaced as necessary. The US did it routinely during WW2, to good effect. It has been argued that the US no longer sacks senior commanders when it should do so.
We don’t know enough about the causes and consequences of Putin’s sackings to be able to evaluate what they really mean.
MaccaRB,
I was at the Hordern Pavlova Jethro Tull concert too!