Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)

Familiar results on the budget and federal politics generally, plus a finding that Mark McGowan continues to reign supreme in Western Australia.

Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:

• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.

• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.

• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.

• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.

• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.

• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,198 comments on “Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)”

Comments Page 20 of 24
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  2. ”
    Scepticsays:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 6:22 am
    And here lies Social Media…

    “By default, people will believe anything they see or hear,” says Stephan Lewandowsky, a cognitive psychologist at the University of Bristol who specialises in understanding how people respond to corrections of misinformation. In our day-to-day lives, “that makes a lot of sense because most things that we’re exposed to are true,” he says.

    At the same time, the more we see something repeated, the more likely we are to believe it to be true. This “illusory truth effect” arises because we use familiarity and ease of understanding as a shorthand for truth – the more something is repeated, the more familiar and fluent it feels whether it is misinformation or fact.

    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/why-do-our-brains-believe-lies-even-when-we-ve-been-told-the-truth-20221104-p5bvox.html
    ”

    This “illusory truth effect” can be called the””Goebells truth ” or “Goebells effect”.
    Repeat a lie as truth many times and it becomes the truth.
    For example, “Weapons of mass destruction ” to start Iraq war 2 or “2020 US Presidential election was stolen”

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20161026-how-liars-create-the-illusion-of-truth

    “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”, is a law of propaganda often attributed to the Nazi Joseph Goebbels.

  4. C@t

    The midterms are trending the way i always believed would happen.
    Roe vs wade is not a passing fad.

    Only concern is that the republicans will not accept any close results and it may end in the courts, which will be a shit show.
    This goes for the governorship races as well.
    Desantis may be in for a big surprise.

  5. The Repugs have set things up to active rage and potentially violence if the mid-terms go against them. That’s the strongest message from the polls. Win or lose it will be a shit-storm.
    Michael Moore says:
    “ So before I paint the picture of how royally f***ed we will be should we lose on Tuesday (we won’t), let me start by giving you a small piece of good news:

    Anything that a Republican Congress might pass can be stopped by a Biden veto. And because there is no way the Party of Trump will elect enough Senators and Representatives to override that veto, we are relatively safe for the two remaining years of our Democracy.

    PLEASE SHARE THE FOLLOWING:

    1. Plans have already been drawn up to impeach Biden. They will do this at least five times in 2023 and 2024.

    2. As the Republican Congress will control the country’s purse, they will attempt to remove all funding of ObamaCare, public education, poverty relief, hunger, the arts, civil rights enforcement, and the environment. “Defund the police?” Not quite. Their mission will be to defund everything.

    3. They will pass a nationwide law banning all abortion (to get it passed, they’ll reluctantly agree to sparing the life of the mother as their one exception).

    4. They will ban same-sex marriage — because there’s nothing worse than marrying the person you love.

    5. Nothing will be done to halt inflation. Too much money is being made by the rich from charging higher and higher prices. Why spoil a good thing!

    6. They will stop Biden’s college loan forgiveness program. It’s vital to keep young adults in hock as long as possible so they will be compliant workers in desperate need of that paycheck.

    7. The Republicans will continue to refuse to reinstate the Violence Against Women Act. Because, like, why?

    8. They will investigate and seek to prosecute Dr. Fauci, Hunter Biden, Cassidy Hutchinson, Joe Biden, and yes, Hillary Clinton.

    9. They will block any attempt by Biden to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court, claiming “two years before the next inauguration is too close to the next president taking office.”

    10. As Trump now completely controls the Republican Party, all Republican elected officials, fearing him and needing his backing for re-election in 2024, will do whatever he tells them to do. It’ll be the first time in my lifetime where a defeated Commander in Chief remains essentially in charge as the Shadow President, pulling the strings, getting his way, fully in charge of the permanent roadblock and placing all of us in danger.”

  8. Matthew Guy has an ad which features what they will do if elected.

    Free school lunches and 2 dollar train fares.

    For eg Labor are offering

    Free kinder
    Free nursing degrees
    New renewable energy company that will be owned by the state
    And of course continued funding of big build projects which Matthew Guy has said they will audit if they will win. In other words, cancel.

  10. Cat (and Cronus)

    Putting aside debates about White, I would agree with the need for Labor’s foreign policy to be more multi-polar and inclusive. So what Albo and Penny Wong has been doing so far in talking to France, India, Indonesia and South Korea as well as UK and USA is good. We need to develop all those relationships because all those countries have people and territories near us; they are here for the long haul.

    If USA does stay engaged in western Pacific long term that is great. I’m not suggesting we abandon USA. But if Biden loses one or both majorities tomorrow, I wouldn’t go signing a thirty year sub building deal with USA.

    Even with China we need to stay engaged. We may not agree but should talk.

  12. Socrates @ #845 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 9:14 am

    Cat (and Cronus)

    Putting aside debates about White, I would agree with the need for Labor’s foreign policy to be more multi-polar and inclusive. So what Albo and Penny Wong has been doing so far in talking to France, India, Indonesia and South Korea as well as UK and USA is good. We need to develop all those relationships because all those countries have people and territories near us; they are here for the long haul.

    If USA does stay engaged in western Pacific long term that is great. I’m not suggesting we abandon USA. But if Biden loses one or both majorities tomorrow, I wouldn’t go signing a thirty year sub building deal with USA.

    Even with China we need to stay engaged. We may not agree but should talk.

    Okay, with that I can agree. However, do you want to hear my assessment of White’s talk or will we just agree on the above points? Btw, I think that’s exactly what the PM and the FM are doing.

    I’m just not an ‘All the way with Xi Xinping’ kinda gal. Simply because he is the 800lb gorilla in the room.

  13. Victoria @ #843 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 9:05 am

    Matthew Guy has an ad which features what they will do if elected.

    Free school lunches and 2 dollar train fares.

    For eg Labor are offering

    Free kinder
    Free nursing degrees
    New renewable energy company that will be owned by the state
    And of course continued funding of big build projects which Matthew Guy has said they will audit if they will win. In other words, cancel.

    Matthew Guy is offering rinky tink policies as substantial as a ice cream on a hot day. Whereas Dan Andrews is offering the Mr Whippy van. 🙂

  16. Victoria @ #839 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 8:57 am

    C@t

    The midterms are trending the way i always believed would happen.
    Roe vs wade is not a passing fad.

    Only concern is that the republicans will not accept any close results and it may end in the courts, which will be a shit show.
    This goes for the governorship races as well.
    Desantis may be in for a big surprise.

    The good thing about the courts, Vic, is that even some of the Trump appointed judges are ruling against him and the Republicans!

  17. I saw a segment on 60 minutes last night regarding Taiwan. I dont think i missed any part of the report.

    But there appeared to be no mention of the visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi at end of July
    This included discussions about semi conductor chips being produced elsewhere.

    This is one big reason why Taiwan is strategically important. They produce 90 percent of the chips for the whole globe.

    In fact the dems had passed the chip act to enable companies to do so in the USA.
    This is a very important part of the story, but i didnt see it mentioned at all on 60 minutes.

  18. C@t

    Agreed. But it will be messy and continue the narrative that the republicans have made about rigged elections.
    Its going to be a rocky few months. Sigh.

  19. UK Cartoons:
    Ben Jennings on #RishiSunak & his top team #gavinwilliamson #JeremyHunt

    Steven Camley on #MattHancock #ImACeleb

    Mac on #Albanian #Refugees

    Morten Morland on #RishiSunak #JeremyHunt

    Andy Davey: Little Poot #Putin looks to be pulling troops from #Kherson and “allowing” civilian evacuation, all despite his big talk

    Finally from the UK – a magnificent bit of Mirth for you all:
    The Exploding Heads
    @Exploding_Heads
    ·
    5 Oct
    “A great British industry is dying in front of our very eyes.”
    ️”Steel workers?”
    “No, the Conservative party.”

    Colin from Portsmouth worries that the tories will be wiped out faster than the polar bears
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1577613585567649792

    NZ:
    Rod Emmerson on @elonmusk #ELONMUSK #elonmusktwitter #TwitterLayoffs

    Guy Keverne Body:


    Sharon Murdoch:
    On the NZ Bird of the Year the pīwauwau rock wren:

    Windfalls for banks, supermarkets, and power and fuel companies. And us? We’re the collateral damage.

    Our Minister of Sport and our problem with alcohol.

    The Week in Politics:

    The Health System:

    Emma Cook:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fg5ee4NVQAErtKY?format=jpg&name=large
    Chris Slane:

    Daron Parton:

  21. Victoria,
    The chips act is significant because it represents the USA de-risking it’s industry and setting up the conditions to let Taiwan fight for itself and not require US assistance.

  23. ” Which Murdoch rag is most despicable?:
    The Courier Mail
    The Daily Telegraph
    The Herald Sun.”

    All pretty much of a muchness as far as I can tell, although from this distance the Herald Sun seems to be more feral than the Daily Telegraph, but maybe that’s because there’s a successful Labor Premier down there.

    At least none of them even pretend to be quality journals. They are all cheerfully crap. Maybe The Australian, which does so pretend, is the worst.

  25. Do you know that Republican party won US HOR IW-02 by 4or 3 votes in 2020?

    Can you imagine how much trouble there will be if Democrats win any of the seats like that now?

  26. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
    11m
    Freshwater Strategy Vic (state) ALP 37 L-NP 34 Green 14 others 15
    2PP 56-44 to Labor.

  27. Alpha Zero at 9:36 am
    Re the NZ cartoon about the bird. A pic showing what it not got….

    Lives in a scenic home though…………

  28. ‘south says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 9:38 am

    Victoria,
    The chips act is significant because it represents the USA de-risking it’s industry and setting up the conditions to let Taiwan fight for itself and not require US assistance.
    Victoria says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 9:42 am

    South

    Exactamundo’
    ====================================
    There is another part to this equation… the one where China depends to some extent on Taiwan’s chips and Taiwan’s chip industry is collateral damage to an invasion of Taiwan. What was China/World lose lose becomes China lose/World wins.

  30. Socrates

    I’m not yet half way through the Hugh White video (listening during my exercise) and nothing significantly controversial thus far. I note however the difficulties faced by strategists/commentators/historians when in even the five months since this talk, events occur.

    In this case I’m referring to his comments (correct imo) regarding the importance of economic strength as a determinant. The Chinese response to covid has significantly undermined their economic momentum (GDP) and in addition to their long term demographic challenges may prove problematic into the future. The drought and energy problems although short-term in the grand scheme of things may also slow Xi’s progress somewhat.

    Enjoying the video and looking forward to the second half.

  31. Greg Sheridan writes about what he describes as “Midterm mayhem in the Divided States of America”.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/midterm-mayhem-in-the-divided-states-of-america/news-story/c7e98d44e861fdf5a45e6dd5a39ca58f
    ”

    What does Neo-Con Billy Kristol think about mid-term election?
    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    Hey, don’t want to interrupt my Democratic friends when they’re engaged in their favorite sports of The Gnashing of Teeth and The Tearing of Garments, but it looks as if the Democratic Party will have the best midterm performance by a party in the White House in two decades.
    ……………

    I don’t know whether he believes it or not. Take that Greg Sheridan. 🙂

  33. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 9:49 am
    Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
    11m
    Freshwater Strategy Vic (state) ALP 37 L-NP 34 Green 14 others 15
    2PP 56-44 to Labor.
    ”

    I don’t like ALP and LNP PVs. They should be higher for ALP and much lower for LNP and Greens.
    Some may say wishful thinking. 🙂

  34. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 8:32 am
    Cronus @ #815 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 7:20 am

    “ Another of Russia’s senior military commanders has reportedly been replaced as Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine continues to flounder.
    On Sunday night, Australian time, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence shared intelligence that General Alexander Lapin, head of Russia’s Central Military District, had been removed from his position.”

    https://www.news.com.au/world/russian-general-alexander-lapin-removed-from-command-months-after-putin-labelled-him-hero-of-russia/news-story/bbe4d510b1ab12403a5fa23963d54f73
    Putin is rearranging the deckchairs on the Battleship Potemkin.
    ———————————————————————————————

    Field promotions are rarely a good thing inasmuch as they almost always suggest something has gone seriously wrong either for the previous commander (death or operational failure) or the mission. Either way, the incoming commander is probably being handed a s—t sandwich.

  35. Thanks, AZ and BK.
    That Cook toon misses the point entirely. 2 degrees plus puts all of us under threat. Framing the situation as an us v them, perps v victims elides the significance of COP-derived action.

    I note in this context that those wombats who were planning to swim back upriver to get back to their bank wrecking activities on our place have had to put a hold on their plans. Three weeks after the floods came there is still water on most of the pasture, there are still streams of floods running across the paddocks, the local bridge is gone, the local causeway has had its road bed ripped off and businesses that depend on connectivity have had their business models trashed.
    Welcome to the future.

  36. Steve777says: Monday, November 7, 2022 at 9:44 am

    ” Which Murdoch rag is most despicable?:

    The Courier Mail
    The Daily Telegraph
    The Herald Sun.”

    ****************************************************

    ……. all publications whose effect is to make the ignorant more ignorant and to make the crazy crazier

  38. Cronus
    But they never say no to a shit sandwich promotion.
    What is interesting is the degree to which the Wagner Group and its owner are setting up an army within and army. I assume that Putin will let this go until he has enough military oomph along most of the front… and then there will be another of those mysterious defenestrations that dog high profile Russians.

  41. Ven @ #982 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 10:00 am

    Greg Sheridan writes about what he describes as “Midterm mayhem in the Divided States of America”.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/midterm-mayhem-in-the-divided-states-of-america/news-story/c7e98d44e861fdf5a45e6dd5a39ca58f
    ”

    What does Neo-Con Billy Kristol think about mid-term election?
    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    Hey, don’t want to interrupt my Democratic friends when they’re engaged in their favorite sports of The Gnashing of Teeth and The Tearing of Garments, but it looks as if the Democratic Party will have the best midterm performance by a party in the White House in two decades.
    ……………

    I don’t know whether he believes it or not. Take that Greg Sheridan. 🙂

    Ven,
    Bill Kristol’s contribution ($10 Million for ads attacking the MAGA Republican candidates), is mentioned in this podcast about the latest Dem polling:

    https://youtu.be/KINtcmklA3Y

  42. Ven @ #991 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 10:17 am

    Latest update by Jon Ralston regarding the Maildump regarding Nevada, which I discussed yesterday. It appears Democrats crushed it. ( I have no idea how he gets that number from postal votes. But he is authority on Nevada, who always got it right.)

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/6/2134087/-Nevada-Is-Going-to-Be-OK-Good-News-is-Everywhere-Take-a-Deep-Breath-We-Got-This

    It’s also explained in that video how they get their numbers.

  44. Ven

    “ The main insight is that journalism is not, and never has been, the purpose of News Corporation. Its purpose, its reason for existence, is to provide the means by which three generations of the Murdoch family accumulate wealth and exert power.”

    It’s about time far more Australians understood this fact and its ramifications on our society.

    https://theconversation.com/attacks-on-dan-andrews-are-part-of-news-corporations-long-abuse-of-power-194023

  45. Thanks BK

    In this interesting contribution, George Brandis writes about how the Senate’s estimates committees have become such an important forum in which the details of numerous affairs and scandals are revealed or prosecuted.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-forgotten-tricyclist-who-left-his-mark-on-our-democracy-20221103-p5bvey.html

    ‘Tricyclist’ caught my eye. Brandis credits the “mad” Ian Alexander Christie Wood with setting up Senate Estimates, and while interestingly, Wood was indeed a literal tricyclist, I’d be pretty sure that Brandis also knows that “trick-cyclist” is a common euphemism for a psychiatrist (the early anti-depressants – apart from Lithium- were tricyclic in chemical structure) and that most doctors think psychiatrists are mad, and on the wrong side of the desk.

    Anyway, a nice play on words.

    (Brandis still creeps me out.)

  47. Socrates says:
    Monday, November 7, 2022 at 9:14 am
    Cat (and Cronus)

    Putting aside debates about White, I would agree with the need for Labor’s foreign policy to be more multi-polar and inclusive. So what Albo and Penny Wong has been doing so far in talking to France, India, Indonesia and South Korea as well as UK and USA is good. We need to develop all those relationships because all those countries have people and territories near us; they are here for the long haul.

    If USA does stay engaged in western Pacific long term that is great. I’m not suggesting we abandon USA. But if Biden loses one or both majorities tomorrow, I wouldn’t go signing a thirty year sub building deal with USA.

    Even with China we need to stay engaged. We may not agree but should talk
    ————————————————————————————————

    +1. The ground is shifting beneath our feet under Trumpism and we need to be nimble in our diplomacy and defence procurements.

  49. Fe Ven @10:06. That’s powerful stuff. It’s how Obama won in 2008.

    The Right appeals to fear, greed and hate, the Left to hope that we can do much better than this, be much better than this.

    OK, it’s not quite that simple but the likes of Donald Trump bring it into sharp relief. To a lesser extent, so do the likes of Morrison, Abbott and Howard.

  50. I have been waiting for longer-term outcomes post-COVID infection with and without treatment with one of the antivirals. This preprint came out a couple of days ago:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.03.22281783v1

    Summary: Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir&ritonavir) treatment up to 5 days post-infection decreases the risk of 90 day adverse effects ranging from cardiovascular, clots, kidney to cognitive. An overall mortality and morbidity reduction post-acute phase.

    Looking forward to seeing further evidence but very promising.

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