Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:
• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.
• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.
• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.
• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.
• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.
• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.
Simon Katich @ #825 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 5:23 pm
It’s been a very good season for mice.
“WWP
Both Clinton and Obama were hammered in their first midterms before easily getting reelection not that Biden is on their level and has a deteriorating economy.”
Yeah but those years they counted the votes. If the republicans win strongly on Tuesday many, in many important states have guaranteed republicans will win future elections and they’ll have the power to do it. The Supreme court won’t step in, it is broken. A huge amount of the Federal Court is broken to.
Even if Democrats get a wave and keep both houses the Courts are likely to protect Trump. There most likely won’t be a Trump trial before 2024, even in the unlikely event Garland gets off his bottom.
E. G. Theodore says:
Instead of “Whyalla Wipeout” we can have “Whyalla Wonderland” based around an overbuild of solar power driving desalination. And 200K in Y plus 150K in both Pt Augusta and Pt Pirie working in high-tech horticulture, aged care (think Scottsdale and the Mayo Clinic) etc. 500K Australians living in three manageably sized cities.
____________________
Do you dream of diverting rivers? Of filling Lake Eyre?
unbelievable credklin and the liberals want to bring up a car crash from 2012 maybi credlin nmeans the car crash involving her firiend the great hope tim smith the liberals must want to remind us of that
I don’t think the Democrats are going to lose the Senate.
Anyway, even the predictions of the professional pundits in America are all over the place, so I don’t know how a bunch of Aussies can predict the result next Tuesday.
I’m just going to put Steve Kornacki on and sit back and watch in horror or delight. 🙂
a bit rich coming from the worst chie f of staff a pm ever had whoto complain about bad government
not shore whiy the ppersonalized attacks on andrews its not like he is like morrison a one man band or aboot where credlin ran a dictatorship andrews has a cabenit and the fact he had somyurek in his cabenit seems to probve until 2020 he was not fully in charge of his government credlin lost any credability when she protended somyurek was a hearow however her husband brian locnane is leading duttons review until feds election los
Themunz @ #834 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 4:48 pm
In the most half-assed way possible. Doesn’t say that the sackings are wrong, or that he now regrets backing Elon’s takeover after seeing what’s come of it.
He merely claims responsibility for “growing the company size too quickly”. Which suggests that he actually supports the layoffs.
didnt smith and the sky after dark crew pushing credlin to take over from obrian maybi smith wanted to be leader hikm self he is good mates with abott who pushed hard to keep in to run again credlin seems to have wanted to enter parliamnent for a while but she must not have support the story was kevin andrews who atempted to re invent him self as a frydenberg allie desbite his decades as a numbers man for abott would serve one more term then in 2025 hand over menzeys to credlin
Tghe only good leader they had was ted bailieu he won in a narow victory in 2010 considered fairly progresive but geof shaw bolt and the hard right phillop davis under mind him for two years triying to install mathew guy but since in upper house installed napthine if guy is so bad whiy did credlin and the hard right lead buy mitfchel get push so hard for a guy come back and distroy bailieu
pluseven his own mps and candadates dont think guy is up to it david davis wanted to enter lower house tobecome leader and john pasuto right now in horthorn is effectively runing a leadership chalinge in his campaign attacking guys policies saying they have to change and he will save them no wonder the state director sam mcqueston is in tasmaniania with the mes in victorian liberals
nath:
Lake Eyre is 500 km north of the top of the gulf, and there are no rivers anywhere.
Have you been to Scottsdale? (it’s the “Western-ist Town in the West”, BTW). I’ve been twice (and wouldn’t voluntarily go back), but on one occasion the restaurant at the place I was staying (“a resort inside a golf course inside a desert”) had about nine different varieties of Eggs Benedict for breakfast! And some bloke turned up every day and had the lot! Dude was a medical+golfing tourist – wake up at at 4AM, play a round, have breakfast for three hours, then rest for the remains of the day (it typically got up to 45° each day I was there). I’m sure Taylormade would love it for the golf. You might too – there were all these extremely wealthy widows who just seemed to want to chat…
In relation to the complaints against various Hawthorn staff:
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/11/04/hawthorn-football-club-scandal-afl/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=fb_ads&utm_campaign=engagement&fbclid=IwAR28KLmnn9vPjMTgaL87PylE9gX4I8bPXYIqolrveql0zddUORlpmpFr2Ag
The AFL side of the same story, but probably not on the same day.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/863883/families-to-take-part-in-hawks-probe-afl-commits-to-wider-response
If Roxy Jacenko is retired, then WTF is she still appearing in tabloid newspapers?
Anyone know more?
Boerwar
How’s cricket going ? 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 4:51 pm
[‘Fingers crossed indeed. But I’m not holding my breath. The cumulative effects of inflation and cost of living: the old fashioned hip pocket nerve – will likely prove insurmountable for the democrats.’]
Perhaps “The economy stupid” will be trumped by Trump’s nominees for the SCOTUS. It amazes me that those thus affected haven’t been more vocal. Maybe they’ve kept their powder dry.
________________________________________
It’s difficult to believe that Holland beat SA; also that the Afghans have been competitive.
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All the very best Rex. I still think you’re more than a tad provocative though. But given you’ve been given imprimatur, who am I to demur?
Jezz, I reckon the W@rC@t will be donning her cammo fatigues and black n’ green face paint in anticipation of what looks to be an example of the most shoddy piece of anti ChiComms propaganda hit piece on 60 Minutes after the Block Finale tonight.
I just luv’ the smell of napalm in the morning. Hee Haw! Hoorah!
A little while ago the CFS got called out to a fire nearby. There was a 100HP tractor alight. There still is, because two CFS tankers are completely bogged 300m away from the fire. Other tractors have turned up and having little success in getting the tankers unbogged.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 7:56 pm
[‘Jezz, I reckon the W@rC@t…’]
Weren’t you instructed by dear moderator not to use this appellation?
Isn’t it past Pepys time for you, oh hall monitor.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 8:07 pm
[‘Isn’t it past Pepys time for you, oh hall monitor.’]
Are you denying the direction of WB? You can’t have it both ways.
BKsays:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 8:02 pm
A little while ago the CFS got called out to a fire nearby. There was a 100HP tractor alight. There still is, because two CFS tankers are completely bogged 300m away from the fire. Other tractors have turned up and having little success in getting the tankers unbogged.
——————–
I spoke to 2 residents of Yarrawonga Vic yesterday as racing friends and jockeys are heading up there to play golf for the week following Flemington carnival.
The Yarrawonga residents said the farmers are in trauma with wet paddocks and can’t get harvesters into paddocks etc. And the mosquitos are in plague.
Just watched Insiders afternoon edition.
Chaney….Teal as Liberal. 🙁
Amy Remeikis….. good person, good journo, well worth hearing.
My sympathy on covid and best wishes for a speedy recovery. Mass vaccination among the sane has obscured the fact that covid is still a nasty illness a lot worse than the flu. Have a good rest.
Andrew_Earlwood is an immature schoolboy who has never grown up. He ignores the instructions of the Moderator and calls me silly names because he thinks he will never be punted. Others have made that mistake before.
I don’t care what he calls me. I know that nothing he says about me is true so he can try his luck with the Moderator and let’s just see what happens.
Playing in another space has its benefits. This appeared in my Mastodon timeline because I follow the hashtag #Ukraine. (You don’t have to follow countless accounts if you’re only interested in a few topics.) But never mind the platform. Consider the effect of these refuges on the places they’ve been forced to flee to, even if only for a while. And where is Bogdan’s dad?
Happily, I retain enough to read this, but the machine translation isn’t bad.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/second-body-found-during-search-of-sydney-floodwaters-20221106-p5bvzb.html
It’s a very sad happening but gotta love the SMH headline above.
The two men who drowned were from Sydney, but the actual tragedy happened at Bevendale, near Boorowa.
As someone who has lived and worked in the general vicinity of the event ( Cowra and Crookwell), I know that Boorowa is about 320 kms from Sydney.
Very sloppy. At least the facts in the body of the item are correct.
I haven’t yet worked out how to link to a Mastodon post. But this, if true, would be a dramatic new phase in Ukraine’s resistance.
https://mastodon.online/@SocraticEthics/109295876778776001
EDIT: I worked it out.
60 minutes lol
“ A company run by Jack Ta, who boasted of “cosy” dinners with former Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton, has been used by more than a dozen drug offenders to remain in Australia on bogus asylum seeker claims.”
I’m sure Dutts has a very good explanation for this, I mean who would know better than the former Home Affairs minister at the time?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-migration-agent-and-the-liberal-ministers-how-one-man-gamed-australia-s-visa-system-20221104-p5bvjm.html
Barney in Cherating @ #842 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 6:04 pm
So we must import more people to look after our ageing population, and therefore solve the problem in the short term but make it much worse in the long term.
What an unmitigated load of tripe.
Your kind of thinking is the problem, not the solution.
Wonder when ICC will toss Afghanistan from competition cricket while it’s ban on female participation continues.
shellbell says:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 10:00 pm
Wonder when ICC will toss Afghanistan from competition cricket while it’s ban on female participation continues.
—————
I think you’ve got to take it up with Allan Akbar, their Selector. I gather He doesn’t like women players.
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️ New York Times: Kyiv to evacuate all civilians in case of total blackout.
Kyiv authorities have begun planning the evacuation of the city’s three million residents if the Ukrainian capital suffers a complete blackout, according to the New York Times.
———
Given that NATO has not supplied adequate defensive weapons against Russian/Iranian missiles, one wonders whether NATO/US policy is to use Ukraine to bleed the Russians as much as possible but with indifference as to which of the two wins.
P1,
You really are so limited in how you are able to think thru problems. You grab onto very simplistic solutions and have no ability to assess potential consequences.
Cronus
Interesting re Dutton and the alleged visa scam.
No doubt you recall the former case of immigration minister Amanda Vanstone in the Howard regime who gave visas to a Liberal donor linked by Italian police to the mafia and later convicted of one of Australia’s largest drug busts.
Barney in Cherating @ #886 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 10:34 pm
In case you hadn’t noticed, we are already experiencing the consequences of your kind of solution.
Perhaps you might want to try a different solution rather than just doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different outcome?
An allegation is again the media headline
It appeared to me, correctly or incorrectly, that the defence in regard the Liberal Party employee was to see the matter never saw the inside of a Court Room, as was the presentation of the Defence (including by referencing the comments of the pm in the Parliament)
Now the fact that a second trial is to proceed is the headline – and a shock development according to one media outlet at least
The expectation was the matter would quietly disappear
I wonder what the parallels will be between the prosecution of the Liberal Party staff member and the Sri Lanka cricketer?
Including the questioning of the complainant (and the media coverage of the questioning)
You would hope both matters are bought to conclusion in a Court of Law
And that justice is done – including particularly for the women who have made the allegations at great cost to themselves, their privacy and their well being
The central question is are the allegations false – and if they are false what is the motive for making such serious false allegation
As an example of when false allegation is made there are no proceedings on foot in the Family Court of Australia
And just to add, people join the Liberal Party for a reason – and not always to improve the living circumstances of the citizens of the Nation
Cronus and any of the Pollbludger national security wonks,
One good thing about forgone conclusion cricket games is that they give you a chance to listen to podcasts. Three months old but I recommend:
This is going to be different: Learning to live with Chinese power
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2396jbJjP0
A lot to think about in this one.
The bad news is that White doubles down on his view that in the long run USA will bug out of the western Pacific meaning Australia does need to learn to defend itself without USA being around. He doesn’t even bother considering the possibility the UK will be here to help defend us. So AUKUS still stinks.
The good news is that its possible, does not mean world three, and we can learn from SE Asian neighbours how to do it.White thinks we are probably headed for a “multi-polar world” not straight from US dominance to Chinese dominance. Also we can have regional partners. So the QUAD might still make sense, even if with France or Korea added and USA gone.
Which leads me to a final thought that I think confirms White’s point. We may need to defend shipping routes in two oceans not one – Indian and Pacific. As US and world reliance on oil declines, why would we expect USA to be involved in the Indian Ocean? They won’t. We will need to defend in it on our own, no question.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 10:52 pm
😆
Didn’t you notice my main original point about rethinking how we plan and develop our cities?
Edit: wrong word, changed to “original. “
It’s slightly simpler and less cynical than that. The policy is “we want Putin to lose, but we’re afraid of upsetting him”. So slow grind and long-term economic upheaval it is.
“The central question is are the allegations false – and if they are false what is the motive for making such serious false allegation”
Are they false or are they unproven? And where is the cross over to defamation?
(I am not legally trained.)
VCT Et3e says:
“Wasn’t [Credlin] Tonicchio’s puppeteer?”
She was also his ‘landlady’.
(Well, that’s how Abbott described their living arrangement.)
BTW, Laura Tingle’s account has disappeared from Twitter. Also this:
Anyone?
Hugh White supported the Iraq War, believed that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction and that the Iraq War would take a couple of days to 3-4 weeks at most. So I rate his judgement at less than zero.
https://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/s804082.htm
Cat
Ad hominem attacks are popular in politics but prove (and disprove) nothing.
In fact White gives a mea culpa on past errors in his last essay.
What do you think is wrong with his logic in this one?
Night all.
Barney in Cherating @ #891 Sunday, November 6th, 2022 – 11:00 pm
Keep hoping and praying. Leave it to others to work towards a real solution.
Barney in Cherating
“I don’t dream of a “Big Australia,” I look at what we need to do to accommodate a growing population that will probably continue until the end of this century.
The way we have allowed or cities to grow is unsustainable from both a social and environmental perspective.”
————
We only have a ‘growing population’ because it’s a political decision to have an endlessly expanding population to increase the profits of the industrial elite and as a lazy economic stimulus for the political benefit of our pretty thick and amoral political class.
The uniqueness and fragility and age of Australia never enters into consideration in the exploitative settler attitude.
What is the settler density you want for Australia? Java? Vietnam? France? England?
Late Riser, Tingle might simply be one of the horde of Twitter deserters, post Musk’s takeover.
Her COVID could be purely coincidental.