The Australia Institute has a poll out which offers the interesting finding that 41% favour the repeal of the stage three tax cuts, with only 22% on board and the remainder unsure. Forty-six per cent understood the cuts to most favour high income earners, compared with 18% for middle income earners and 8% for low income earners. Asked whether “adapting economic policy to suit the changing circumstances even if that means breaking an election promise” rated higher than “keeping an election promise regardless of how economic circumstances have changed”, 61% favoured the former and 27% the latter. The poll was conducted September 6 to 9 from a sample of 1409.
The Guardian reports on the fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which continues to hold off from voting intention and does not include leadership ratings on this occasion, and is mostly devoted to questions on incidental political relevance regarding the Optus security breach. Fifty-one per cent would support stronger curbs on information collected by private companies and 47% expressed concern about governments collecting their personal information. The full report should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full Essential Research report here.
Alpo at 9.46 am
Putin’s rhetoric has nothing in common with Lenin’s, nor, unlike Lenin, does he have any theoretical understanding at all.
Not just his attitudes but his institutions have similarities with the decay of Nicholas II, who was a military dunderhead.
Musk has the potential to do some serious damage here:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/04/zelenskiy-hits-back-as-elon-musk-sets-up-twitter-poll-on-annexed-areas
Socrates at 6.48 am and Holdenhillbilly at 7.40 am
David Pocock and the Lambie duo, who have key Senate votes, are clearly opposed to the shameless Truss-like stage 3 tax cuts.
Vic,
I have a pedantic point to raise with this: “He is beyond evil and narcissistic.”
He’s not; he is those things.
The issue is that the outrage-noise machine has been dialled up so loud that your run-of-the-mill farkwit like Abbot, Dutton or Bush is seen as a evil and narcissistic, when really they are just motivated by greed and being in with the right crowd. This is understandable, if incredibly selfish.
Trump, and Johnson and possibly Morison? Now there’s some narcissism. Trump has a particularly evil streak to go with it.
But if you’ve already applied the “evil and narcissistic” labels to mere farkwits, how do you characterise the really bad characters? And how do you communicate this to the public?
Which explains quiet Albo’s long-term strategy to recalibrate the outrage machine, and use it only when needed.
Cronus at 6.01 am et. al.
The Putin annexation is merely a pantomime worthy of a rascal like Rasputin, but unworthy of any serious belief, including by those wishing for his downfall.
Muslim women in Dagestan understand that Kherson, Zaporozhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk remain Ukrainian. Don’t doubt their intelligence.
Boerwar @ #101 Tuesday, October 4th, 2022 – 9:55 am
His proposal demonstrates a surprising lack of principle, given his earlier position of “I’ll personally duel Putin to save Ukraine”.
Though he may also be accurate in terms of the likely outcome. It looks like there’s a plausible compromise in play, mostly because of Ukraine’s expedited NATO application.
Can’t see any NATO ally, let alone all of them, agreeing to Ukraine joining while any of its territory is under active occupation by Russia. They’d be telling Ukraine as much, roughly wtte “give Russia the territory they occupy, stop fighting, and then you can join”. Russia gets to say they won a bunch of land. Whatever’s left of Ukraine gets to say they’re joining NATO. Shitty outcome, but can be spun as a “win” by both sides.
Boerwar at 10:32 am.
It is indeed simple ‘math’ but it is an issue that seems no longer to be talked about. Too many cattle in the paddock ends with no grass for anyone.
Dr D
‘David Pocock and the Lambie duo, who have key Senate votes, are clearly opposed to the shameless Truss-like stage 3 tax cuts.’
The cuts have already been legislated – with the help of Lambie – so that’s irrelevant.
They may try a trade off – reverse the tax cuts and we’ll pass this unrelated piece of legislation – but that’s dodgy ethically.
p
Indeed. Try and raise it and you can end up being accused of racism. Too many states in the UN have endless population growth as a sort of first principle.
Insane.
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 9:16 am
Ashasays:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 8:53 am
Good lord, I figured all the stuff about Liz Truss being a total moron was just partisan rhetoric. Has there ever been a new PM who has managed to stuff things up so royally so early into their term?
_____________________
Gillard.
中华人民共和国
Like wot C@t said – LOL Taylormade
“Boerwar says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 10:55 am
Musk has the potential to do some serious damage here”
This is what happens if you spend 40 years introducing Neoliberal policies that shrink to almost nothing the effective taxation rate of billionaires: the billionaires have so much money at their disposal that they believe to be stronger than anyone else, they can waste their money on stupid trips-to-Mars projects at will, and now dangerously meddling with an extremely serious situation like the war in Ukraine.
To shut them up, just effectively tax them to 90% (as it happened before the spread of Neoliberalism), that will keep them busy just focusing on their core businesses and leave serious and complex matters to the grown ups.
a r
Hopefully NATO understands enough history to know that giving Putin any kind of win at all will, in the long run, be counter productive.
Boerwar at 11:13 am
I think the economists have taken over. Infinite growth is not a problem for the ‘dismals’, they have formulae to ‘prove’ it.
Ven at 9.25 am
History has already fulfilled your fears. Most of the ExCom (the secret committee advising Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis) were ignorant hawks. Kennedy later told J.K. Galbraith “you would not imagine the amount of bad advice I received during the crisis”. The bad advice was so overwhelming that the truth about how the crisis ended (through diplomacy not a backdown by Khrushchev) was kept hidden for many years.
Dandy Murray Honey dew
Fair point
Thanks BK.
If this were any other government it would be looking at an election defeat. Instead, Daniel Andrews’ Victorian Labor is going to win a third term and there’s almost nothing that can change it, says Angus Livingston.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/any-other-government-would-be-facing-defeat-but-andrews-will-win-anyway-20220926-p5bkzz.html
____________
Decades ago, at church youth group, we used to play a game called ‘Poor Pussy’ (while being completely unaware of the alternate meaning/s!)
People sat in a circle. The person who was ‘in’ approached a seated person, mimicking a cat. The approachee had to pat the ‘cat’ on the head and say, ‘Poor Pussy’ 3 times without smiling. The ‘cat’ tried to make the approachee laugh without touching them.
My response to the ‘lifestyle’ journo who wrote this sh&t? ‘Poor pussy!’
Dr Doolittle at 11:22 am
Given how few are aware of how it actually ended it may as well have remained secret. Vote 1 JKG.
FTR – the agreeing to the Stage Three cuts was good retail politics, but was always going to be a huge burden should there be ANY kind of economic shift. Which is why I recognised the benefit, but still felt it was a bad idea.
I agree the best approach is to scale back the benefits to the top earners – scrapping would be a millstone all the way to 2025. Taking it to 2025 would be a HUGE mistake.
There is a will out there to repeal, frankly, they should be… but they won’t. Tinkering around the edges, one edge in particular would be a lower risk, but reduce the burden to the Budget when we can afford it least.
‘Alpo says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 11:14 am
“Boerwar says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 10:55 am
Musk has the potential to do some serious damage here”
This is what happens if you spend 40 years introducing Neoliberal policies that shrink to almost nothing the effective taxation rate of billionaires: the billionaires have so much money at their disposal that they believe to be stronger than anyone else, they can waste their money on stupid trips-to-Mars projects at will, and now dangerously meddling with an extremely serious situation like the war in Ukraine.
To shut them up, just effectively tax them to 90% (as it happened before the spread of Neoliberalism), that will keep them busy just focusing on their core businesses and leave serious and complex matters to the grown ups.’
————————————–
Croesus was around before Neoliberalism was thought of, I believe. My point? In every post hunter and gatherer society in human history some individuals have managed to persuade the rest to give them the surplus that they need in order to make trouble for the rest. The true eternal human mystery is not whether there is life after death or whether the universe actually has a skerrick of meaning. The true human mystery is this: Why do the rest let themselves get suckered like this every single time?
zoomster at 11.13 am
Lambie’s current views are not irrelevant for Labor if it wants to regain credibility in Tassie. Lambie owned her mistake. Albo did too, in Lonnie on the first day of the campaign. Lining up with a Truss policy is very embarrassing for Labor.
Any legislation can be changed if the numbers are there, and David Pocock and the Lambie duo have key votes this term.
Any discussion about stopping the S3 tax cuts must involve a political cui bono.
There is no integrity at all in ignoring that the Greens and the Teals and the Liberals and the Nationals and UA and PHON would all be the political beneficiaries. .
Great weekend to choose to go bushwalking around Lake St Clair – may just have to drink in front of fire instead
nath says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 8:26 am
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 8:22 am
According to this, current DEFCON level is 3 (Increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness; Air Force ready to mobilize in 15 minutes)
_______
I prefer to consult the Doomsday Clock.
____________
Perhaps we should just relax and learn how to love the Bomb?
____________
@BW…
Two things can be true at the same time… a massive $240 billion blow to the Budget at a time of a likely economic downturn (aka when tax reciepts will drop) is a choice.
Frankly, I don’t care about the politics – it is irresponsible to leave them as they are. The consequences of this will be – no growth at a huge cost and when the Libs get back in, because they will at some point, they will gut spending to cover the cost.
Yes, Labor usually gets punished for doing the right thing… but you really think it’s worth $240 billion?
jt1983 at 11:36 am
At which point they will propose further tax cuts in order to ‘stimulate growth’ . This ‘growth’ we will be told will help address the debt situation. Then around we’ll go again. It’s the Coalition’s ‘virtuous circle’ and a story we’ve heard before.
Ven says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 9:25 am
”
Steve777says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 8:34 am
” Although speculation abounds, officials never publicly state which DEFCON level the country is under, for security reasons. The U.S. has never reached DEFCON 1. The highest it’s thought to have been is DEFCON 2, which reportedly occurred during the Cuban Missile Crisis.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/27/defcon-nuclear-deterrence-russia-united-states/6964591001/
”
I shudder to think what would have happened during Cuban missile crisis if Chicken-Hawks and Wolverines were advisors to Kennedy.
____________
‘Hawks’ WERE advising Kennedy, he just chose a different path…
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/08/jfk-vs-the-military/309496/
Steve777
For a ‘shudder’ re Cuban Missile Crisis consider the story of this guy. He really was……
https://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/the-man-who-saved-the-world-about-this-episode/871/
Touche’
Gitanas Nausėda
@GitanasNauseda
·
5h
Dear
@elonmusk
, when someone tries to steal the wheels of your Tesla, it doesn’t make them legal owner of the car or of the wheels. Even though they claim both voted in favor of it. Just saying
‘jt1983 says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 11:36 am
@BW…
Two things can be true at the same time… a massive $240 billion blow to the Budget at a time of a likely economic downturn (aka when tax reciepts will drop) is a choice.
Frankly, I don’t care about the politics – it is irresponsible to leave them as they are. The consequences of this will be – no growth at a huge cost and when the Libs get back in, because they will at some point, they will gut spending to cover the cost.
Yes, Labor usually gets punished for doing the right thing… but you really think it’s worth $240 billion?’
——————————————–
1. The dynamic before the election was that you could not trust the majors, that they were the same old same old, and that we needed an enlarged crossbench AND a NACC to keep the MAJORs honest.
2. Some of this crew must have believed the shit they were delivering: that an Albanese Government would be the same as any of the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments. If they actually believed that shit they were dumb as. If they did not believe it but spouted it anyway they were ethically corrupt to a significant degree. It was this sort of bullshit, incidentally, that cost us ten years of climate action, ten years of progressing womens issues and ten years of steadily increasing corruption. Go figure.
2. The same people who ran these lines are now endlessly urging Labor to break a major election promise. Go figure. It turns out that when THEY are the political beneficiaries they could not give a flying fuck about the integrity involved in keeping major promises – especially if it makes Labor look same old same old lying and lacking in integrity. Win win for the holier-than-thous!
3. Labor’s reforms in a single three year government disappear like puffs of smoke when the Coalition gets back in. But the Crossbenchers are not truly concerned about this. What they dream of is a situation in which they BOP the house and/or BOP the Senate. For this they actually NEED Labor to fail over the next three years and are quite willing to help Labor fail.
4. The Coalition has absolutely NOTHING going for it ATM. Nothing. Dropping the S3 tax cuts gives them and the Murdochracy unlimited ammo for the next three years. The Crossbenchers would not give a flying fuck about that, would they? Why? See 3, above.
5. The xBenchers and the Guardian and the ABC will simply pocket the dropping of the S3 cuts, pocket the political wins, and go on to bag Labor for whatever comes next.
Arky says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 9:48 am
@Socrates: Indeed. I’m always mindful that we’re a small population country and our ability to resist invasion from a major power is not high if our allies can’t or won’t intervene. We shouldn’t spend billions on Defence just to spend – there needs to be a rationale as to how it will help in any realistic scenario.
Ironically, one of the best reasons for Defence spending is on materiel that allows us to participate in the sort of actions that help us get brownie points with allies and neighbours.
If China wants to invade us and the US is unwilling or unable to help a couple of divisions more or less, a tank battalion more or less, these will make no difference so actually defending against invasion isn’t a great rationale for expanding defence spending.
I have been persuaded the subs can be effective Defence spending because they would be part of an effective alliance approach to patrolling the seas and if push comes to shove interdicting enemy shipping in the Indo-Pacific, and we have to contribute not just rely on the Americans to do it all for us. If we were buying them with the idea of standing up to an invader by ourselves they would be a terrible purchase.
If we thought an invasion was genuinely on the horizon surely guerilla warfare supplies and training of potential guerilla cells would be the way to go.
____________
No, no, no!
The way for Australia to resist an invading force is to ensure that force never gets here.
Only one country currently has the capacity to successfully invade us: The USA.
High quality submarines and strike aircraft with accurate missiles mean any non-US invading force would suffer unacceptable losses in the relatively narrow sea ‘choke points’ most invaders would have to use to get here. We’ve had high quality submarines and strike aircraft for decades.
On the other hand, China and Russia do have very long range ballistic missiles that could hit us with nuclear weapons, but that’s not an invasion strategy.
If we were to focus our defence on ‘defending Australia’ – we’d prioritise subs and planes. We’d also need to grapple with how we live in a nuclear threat environment if the USA becomes unreliable (as it was under Trump.)
NATO countries have the highest mutual protection levels in any alliance: each member state is bound to consider ‘an attack on one to be an attack on all.’ We have no such understanding with any partner, so we keep fighting American wars in hopes they’ll protect us if things go bad.
Not very secure.
Vic says;
I have a pedantic point to raise with this: “He is beyond evil and narcissistic.”
He’s not; he is those things.
The issue is that the outrage-noise machine has been dialled up so loud that your run-of-the-mill farkwit like Abbot, Dutton or Bush is seen as a evil and narcissistic, when really they are just motivated by greed and being in with the right crowd. This is understandable, if incredibly selfish.
Trump, and Johnson and possibly Morison? Now there’s some narcissism. Trump has a particularly evil streak to go with it.
But if you’ve already applied the “evil and narcissistic” labels to mere farkwits, how do you characterise the really bad characters? And how do you communicate this to the public?
Which explains quiet Albo’s long-term strategy to recalibrate the outrage machine, and use it only when needed.
________________________________
Albo has been misunderestimated! – by foes and friends.
Dr Doolittle says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 11:09 am
Cronus at 6.01 am et. al.
The Putin annexation is merely a pantomime worthy of a rascal like Rasputin, but unworthy of any serious belief, including by those wishing for his downfall.
Muslim women in Dagestan understand that Kherson, Zaporozhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk remain Ukrainian. Don’t doubt their intelligence.
____________
Rasputin, you say…?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nl_Eo2QzqU4
October is the month where markets crash.
All this talk of financial institutions such as credit suisse and Deutsche bank being under severe pressure, combined with the UK economy on the edge, im getting the jitters about a bona fide collapse.
I hope not. Gulp.
zoomster says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 11:15 am
a r
Hopefully NATO understands enough history to know that giving Putin any kind of win at all will, in the long run, be counter productive.
____________
+1
The counter-productivity may kick in even sooner than the ‘long’ run!
I’d just like to say, as someone that used to do marketing strategy for Greens NSW, the Labor stage 3 tax cuts is doing absolute gangbusters for the Greens’ narrative at the moment. This is such a good wedge against Labor’s left flank for the Greens. Although there still isn’t a solid branding/psych link between the Greens and tax reform yet despite it being one of the focuses of their advertising for a while now. (this isn’t meant as a partisan thing, just an observation.)
Good, reasonable writeup from Murphy about the political risks of going either way on Stage 3
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/04/a-shift-on-stage-three-tax-cuts-would-move-the-first-albanese-budget-from-b-for-boring-to-b-for-big
I’ve been reading stories of Deutsche Bank being ‘Doomed! I tells ya’ since 2008. Will they be right in year 14 of it ?
Seems to me that the ALP is under vast pressure to do something as regards the s3 tax cuts and MAY have the opportunity in their 1st Budget. I would say its got to be something that isn’t just repealing them, although, that said they now have the debacle that were similar tax cuts in the UK to look at the reaction too??
Delay, spread out, redistribute are all possible i guess, but whatever they do they have to keep the narrative simple. The forces of evil and darkness will have that simple narrative if the s3 are not delivered as promised and on time which is that the ALP cant be trusted with $. However….they will run that line anyway regardless of anything that goes on.
Interesting times as we have a budget this month (because the coalition one was shit) and then another in May 23. That gives the ALP 2 bites at the cherry early in their 1st term which i think they have the smarts to exploit.
‘Emilius van der Lubben says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 12:21 pm
I’d just like to say, as someone that used to do marketing strategy for Greens NSW, the Labor stage 3 tax cuts is doing absolute gangbusters for the Greens’ narrative at the moment. This is such a good wedge against Labor’s left flank for the Greens. Although there still isn’t a solid branding/psych link between the Greens and tax reform yet despite it being one of the focuses of their advertising for a while now. (this isn’t meant as a partisan thing, just an observation.)’
——————————————
The framing of this ‘non-partisan’ observation tells us everything we need to know. ‘Integrity’ does not get a look in.
“Good, reasonable writeup from Murphy about the political risks of going either way on Stage 3”
Just had a read of that…ta fer daH link.
Me coming to the conclusion that the ALP have some room to move on this, but are unlikely to wholesale scrap the s3 cuts. They could ….but i will await hopefully for a less blunt instrument approach.
Of course if they do change the s3 cuts so as to support the revenue base, and then there is a recession, the whole narrative will go to “holy shit, what would have happened if the s3 cuts had gone through”…and Coalition squawking about broken promises will look like an idiot response.
There has been justified praise for PM Albanese for the way the new Government is performing. Not wanting to take any of the gloss of him, but there is one significant difference between PM Albanese and his immediate predecessors, he is supported by a competent cabinet.
“but there is one significant difference between PM Albanese and his immediate predecessors, he is supported by a competent cabinet.”
Yup….and him not actually being everybody in “Cabinet” probably helps as well. 🙂
You know, talking to actual other real people and not just the other voices in your head.
poroti says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 11:51 am
Steve777
For a ‘shudder’ re Cuban Missile Crisis consider the story of this guy. He really was……
The Man Who Saved the World,
………………….tells the unsung story of Soviet naval officer Vasili Arkhipov, the Brigade Chief of Staff on submarine B-59, who refused to fire a nuclear missile and saved the world from World War III and nuclear disaster.
https://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/the-man-who-saved-the-world-about-this-episode/871/
____________
In recent times, I’ve become skeptical about how close the world was to annihilation during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The US nuclear arsenal at the time was much, much bigger than the USSR’s – according to this reference, 5000 warheads vs 300…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis#Responses_considered
Not only did the US have lots more (which the Soviets knew) – they had effective ways to hit targets in the USSR, via the world’s first missile subs able to launch ballistic missiles from underwater (the George Washington and Ethan Allen classes, 9 of which were commissioned by May ’62) and B-52 bombers.
They had even introduced the Minuteman missile just before the crisis. This is important: unlike Soviet missiles, Minuteman was solid-fuelled (it had small pellets of fuel which, when ignited, produced thrust.) Minuteman, like the US’ submarine-launched missiles (also solid-fueled) could remain fueled in its silo for long periods – able to go from alert status to launch in minutes.
The Soviets had long range missiles, but they used difficult-to-handle liquid fuels which could not be left in the missile for any great length of time without either evaporating or damaging the missile. Getting an early Soviet missile ready took hours.
If the Soviets decided to launch Soviet-based missiles, the US would probably find out via surveillance of Soviet missile sites. The US could then launch a missile strike BEFORE the Soviet missiles would be properly fueled, decapitating Soviet capability.
Putting missiles in Cuba was the only way, in 1962, the USSR could threaten the USA – but it would not be a terribly credible threat. Again, the Soviet liquid-fueled R-12 missiles (that were shipped to Cuba) could not be left fueled very long. Also, yes, the R-12 could reach US cities from Cuba – “only” in the south-eastern USA. American warheads could rain down on any and all Soviet cities.
If we want to get cold-hearted, 1962 was a time when the USA had the capacity to largely destroy the USSR, with fairly small risk to itself.
So, the Soviet submariner in the PBS documentary did not ‘Save the world’ – the US’ decision not to exploit its overwhelming advantage in the early 60s did. (Having said that, the Soviet submariner should be applauded for his principled decision.)
Dr Doolittle
“History has already fulfilled your fears. Most of the ExCom (the secret committee advising Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis) were ignorant hawks. Kennedy later told J.K. Galbraith “you would not imagine the amount of bad advice I received during the crisis”. The bad advice was so overwhelming that the truth about how the crisis ended (through diplomacy not a backdown by Khrushchev) was kept hidden for many years.”
Thanks. Have you seen the documentary “The Fog of War” on Robert McNamara? There was some jaw dropping footage of ex-Soviet officials talking to McNamara after the cold war effectively pointing out that he had almost started WWIII in Cuba and McNamara was oblivious.
I am rapidly forming a similar impression of AUKUS and Morrison’s nuclear submarine “plan”. The sarcastic jokes were true: the only plan was to get re-elected.
I have reached the point where my technical conclusion is that proceeding with the French nuclear subs would be the safest, least risk and cheapest option. So much for the commentary on the “failed” French contract. It had flaws, but the failure was greatly exaggerated by vested interests. I regret believing some of it. I summarised my view in a post at 11.23pm last night on the previous thread.
On the plus side, with virtually no interim option feasible from UK or USA, buying or leasing French made SSNs is probably now Australia’s best option to avoid a capability gap. Although not widely reported in Australia (or in English), the French must at least be aware of this. I hope they make a formal offer. See
https://meta–defense-fr.translate.goog/2022/06/16/la-france-peut-elle-louer-des-sous-marins-nucleaires-dattaque-a-laustralie/?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
We could then proceed with building the balance of the SSNs locally. As per some other correspondence between Andrew Earlwood and myself this morning, local construction of a French SSN looks like the lowest (delivery) risk option.
This would have many diplomatic advantages as well as technical and economic. There would be no weapon grade uranium. Australian naval bases would still be upgraded to a nuclear engineering standard and could maintain UK, US or French SSNs.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 1:02 pm
Dr Doolittle
“History has already fulfilled your fears. Most of the ExCom (the secret committee advising Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis) were ignorant hawks. Kennedy later told J.K. Galbraith “you would not imagine the amount of bad advice I received during the crisis”. The bad advice was so overwhelming that the truth about how the crisis ended (through diplomacy not a backdown by Khrushchev) was kept hidden for many years.”
Thanks. Have you seen the documentary “The Fog of War” on Robert McNamara? There was some jaw dropping footage of ex-Soviet officials talking to McNamara after the cold war effectively pointing out that he had almost started WWIII in Cuba and McNamara was oblivious.
I am rapidly forming a similar impression of AUKUS and Morrison’s nuclear submarine “plan”. The sarcastic jokes were true: the only plan was to get re-elected.
I have reached the point where my technical conclusion is that proceeding with the French nuclear subs would be the safest, least risk and cheapest option. So much for the commentary on the “failed” French contract. It had flaws, but the failure was greatly exaggerated by vested interests. I regret believing some of it. I summarised my view in a post at 11.23pm last night on the previous thread.
On the plus side, with virtually no interim option feasible from UK or USA, buying or leasing French made SSNs is probably now Australia’s best option to avoid a capability gap. Although not widely reported in Australia (or in English), the French must at least be aware of this. I hope they make a formal offer. See
https://meta–defense-fr.translate.goog/2022/06/16/la-france-peut-elle-louer-des-sous-marins-nucleaires-dattaque-a-laustralie/?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
We could then proceed with building the balance of the SSNs locally. As per some other correspondence between Andrew Earlwood and myself this morning, local construction of a French SSN looks like the lowest (delivery) risk option.
This would have many diplomatic advantages as well as technical and economic. There would be no weapon grade uranium. Australian naval bases would still be upgraded to a nuclear engineering standard and could maintain UK, US or French SSNs.
____________
+1
Also, I’d love to see Labor announce a 2 phase solution to the sub fwarkup:
1. Buy 4 French-built Barracuda nukes (modified only with things like US-compatible combat electronics) ASAP to minimise both capability gap and any need to waste money upgrading Collins;
2. Follow this up by building 8 ‘block 2 Barracudas’ (upgraded with vertical launch missile tubes) in Adelaide.
These phases to be accompanied by any upgrades to Adelaide needed to maximise our ability to maintain the subs.
How do we organise a campaign within the ALP to go this way?
Snappy Tom at 1:01 pm
The guy had his orders, he chose not to follow them. All your postulation re their relative positions would not have counted. As for arguing a nuclear war would be a ‘win’ for the US due to the then imbalance.Ha! Gee, we only have 25% of our country glowing and they have 50% , yay we won.
I see the AFL have signed off on their Essendon subsidiary hiring a disgraced ex NAB executive and far right religious loon as CEO.
Terrible organisations.
“New Essendon chief executive Andrew Thorburn is chairman of a church organisation which likens abortion to the operation of concentration camps and declares that homosexual behaviour is wrong.
Thorburn, 57, was appointed to the top Bombers role on Monday in a move which president David Barham described as “bold and decisive”….
…Thorburn served as chief executive of NAB from 2014 to 2019 and previously the Bank of NZ from 2008 to 2014.
He was forced to resign from his position at NAB in the wake of the scathing Royal Commission into misconduct in the banking industry in 2019.
The royal commission’s final report singled out Thorburn and Dr Ken Henry – who also resigned – for harsh criticism, saying they had not learned the lessons of past misconduct, particularly in NAB’s wealth management arm that had charged $100m in fees without providing services in return. ”
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/essendon-news-bombers-appoint-andrew-thorburn-as-new-ceo/news-story/8f5e88a1f5460f10723c150298822652
The knock on effects from this will provide some genuine cover for reform of the S3 cuts.
They talk about GDP growth but does that take into account inflation ? Do they count the buying and selling of the price ‘inflated’ items as an increase in GDP ? If they do then the 0.4% shrinkage would mean a very large drop in ‘real’ terms.
https://www.thelocal.de/20220929/german-inflation-to-rise-in-2023-as-economy-shrinks/
Snappy Tom
“These phases to be accompanied by any upgrades to Adelaide needed to maximise our ability to maintain the subs.”
Actually the upgrade of the ASC to a nuclear engineering standard needs to happen immediately. This must be completed before the SSN construction can start in ASC. This is more significant than upgrading the maintenance infrastructure at the sub bases. Sub deep-maintenance is also done at ASC.
In fact the absence of any funding for upgrading ASC to a nuclear engineering standard in the 2022 Frydendebt budget was one of the giveaways that made me realise there was no substance behind the original AUKUS deal.
If Morrison had really wanted to see SSN construction happen quickly in Australia, upgrading ASC would be the first item of business. It wasn’t funded ergo AUKUS was a stalling tactic.
I assume they simply presumed they could buy SSNs “off the shelf” from UK or USA, and therefore put another nail in the Australian shipbuilding coffin. They didn’t understand there is no shelf for SSNs.
poroti says:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 1:15 pm
Snappy Tom at 1:01 pm
The guy had his orders, he chose not to follow them. All your postulation re their relative positions would not have counted. As for arguing a nuclear war would be a ‘win’ for the US due to the then imbalance.Ha! Gee, we only have 25% of our country glowing and they have 50% , yay we won.
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I did say cold-hearted!
BTW, the Soviets would not have succeeded in striking 25% of the US. Many, many Soviet missiles (including in Cuba) would’ve been hit before they could be launched. Maybe 2.5% of the US would’ve been hit – or 0.25%.
More than 50% of the largest Soviet cities with way more than 50% of the population would’ve been destroyed, along with almost the entire Soviet nuclear capability.