The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
Morning all.
@bc:
“ Something I didn’t know, why nuclear submarines can’t touch bottom:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/iQyDxkk2SxM
Keeping them at least 40m from the ocean bottom does seem to limit where they can go.”
___________
Was any thought given to this issue BEFORE the AUKUS pivot? Given that our current capability is centred on stealth in the littoral, and I suggest this would remain a core requirement with any SSN based fleet? SSNs, especially HEU variants will not be able to use Morton Bay/Brisbane as a base because of this reason (plus the abundance of jellyfish and other marine life risking fouling the inlet cooling tubes), and I’d suggest that operations in the Arafura would also be … problematic.
BK thanks for the morning roundup, which shows we do still have working journalists after all!. I think this story is important:
“ Industrial action should be allowed in multi-employer bargaining, say academics consulting on the government’s promised legislation who also suggest union involvement in enterprise agreements be made compulsory.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ir-experts-push-for-strikes-union-role-in-multi-employer-wage-deals-20220920-p5bjfm.html
Ethically and economically the idea workers should not be allowed to strike is just wrong. In wage setting it is the only power workers have. Take it away and the scales are tipped unfairly.
Economically there is ZERO evidence that Australia’s very low rate of strikes (one of the lowest rates in our history and 5th lowest in the OECD) has made us more productive or improved GDP. It has just led to lower wages. That is all.
https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Industrial_Disputes_Briefing_Note_FINAL.pdf
Strikes can be annoying, but effective strikes are brief. We need to stop demonising them.
Confessions @ #668 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 8:06 am
Agreed – but they are avatars for the current ebb tide of Old Oz Obstructionists.
LOLs.
Average depth of Taiwan Strait.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=average+depth+of+taiwan+strati
I am not saying these draftees are crack troops – nor in ww2 (there are varying accounts but I agree that the historical lauding of Siberian troops was mainly from Germans who perhaps were looking for excuses). I just sensed in some of the reporting that they are all presumed to be weak drunks from Hicksville to be made into mincemeat. My point was that if these draftees are well equiped they will be a threat.
As for well equipped; that depends. Russia should have the ability to scale up manufacture of the basics. Hi tech frontline stuff, logistics and support? That will be a challenge.
MaccaRB,
Thanks for the reply. My son goes to New York on the train a fair bit and so I might go there with him. I don’t know how long I’m going to be in America for yet and honestly I don’t think I want to be there for too long. I am not the biggest fan of travelling. So we’ll see. 🙂
Simon Katich @ #705 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 8:25 am
Read this Twitter thread about the sort of training Russian troops get, it will answer your questions I think:
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915
Bc
“ Something I didn’t know, why nuclear submarines can’t touch bottom:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/iQyDxkk2SxM
Keeping them at least 40m from the ocean bottom does seem to limit where they can go.”
It is not that simple. That video leaves out a lot of stuff and is misleading. If nuclear submarines could never operate in shallower water than 40 metres plus periscope depth (say 70m to 80m) nobody would build any including China whose coastal waters are shallow. Every port including sub bases is shallower than that too, unless you are in the Norwegian navy and have a fjord handy.
All nuclear subs have a water purifier/desalinator to make sure the water used to cool the reactor is pure and clean. This cannot handle mud so you would not intentionally ground a nuclear sub. The 40 metres is probably a minimum depth operational rules in the USN to minimise maintenance problems.
NATO nuclear subs also have both a battery and diesel motor backup to ensure they can both shutdown the reactor if needed and get off the bottom if stuck without using the reactor.
Soc,
Thanks for that explanation. Some people will believe any old guff in order to support their preconceived biases.
The Australian’s financial journalist, James Kirby, is delightful to watch in his weekly spot on ABC News Breakfast.
I note that some cartoonists are exaggerating racist untermensch slavic tropes against Vlad the Stumbler: high cheek bones, round forehead, slanted eyes…
Howard absorbed Hansonism. In due course some ‘Liberal’ leader will absorb the Teals.
Great observation:
Ben Collins
@oneunderscore__
I ain’t no wargaming expert, but if you’re immediately conscripting protesters for a war they want ended, aren’t at least some going to get to Ukraine and either immediately defect or otherwise go AWOL as soon as humanly possible?
C@tmomma
Speaking as someone who travels a lot – if this is your first passport, get the application process under way as soon as you can. Make sure your paperwork is in order and get your local post office to double check absolutely everything is present and correct. Even down to using ONLY a black pen!
Get the post office to do your photos and bring your witness with you.
The best way for a straightforward application is to get it right the first time.
Passport renewals are much faster, but that’s a different queue. I got mine (no priority) in seven days, but that was just before Christmas, and before the mad rush from opening borders.
Solo Monk
@JJKALE2
John Howard doesn’t think we have a problem with racism in Australia.
Nor does Scott Morrison, Craig Kelly, George Christensen, Alexander Downer and Pauline Hanson.
People who never get to experience racism shouldn’t get to decide if it’s racist.
#weatheronPB
Torn clouds tease my eyes.
Leaf filled gutters anticipate my reluctant hands.
The wet earth yields, underfoot.
Thanks, Eston. Apparently I have to get a visa too, even if I’m not going to be there for very long.
Wastage will be significant. It is what is left that counts.
US Civil War battles had very large numbers of soldiers wandering around behind the lines.
There are some great scenes of the Tsarist Army disappearing in Dr Zhivago.
If anyone wants to read a technically detailed but well written book on how a modern SSN is built and what it contains, including water desalinator and catalyst for producing fresh air on board, this is worth a read. The US Virginias and French Suffren would both have similar features.
https://haynes.com/en-au/astute-class-nuclear-submarine-manual
John Howard made it OK to be a racist again.
A man has been charged with conduct endangering life after allegedly being clocked speeding at 233 kilometres per hour south-west of Melbourne. Police said they first saw the vehicle driving erratically on the Princes Freeway in Laverton just before 7.30pm. The air wing unit monitored the vehicle as it approached the Duncans Road intersection, where it was allegedly observed travelling at 233kph.
The speed limit on that section of road was 100kph. Police said the vehicle did a U-turn after driving into oncoming traffic and began travelling back towards the city.
Listening to ABC NewRadio at 8am and they jumped to Parliament for the condolence motions.
A bit much at 8am
NSW Labor appears to be self-destructing …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/21/nsw-labor-mp-tania-mihailuk-launches-extraordinary-attack-on-her-own-party-in-parliament
As usual, it looks like the wrong person has been sacked.
Surprisingly, a review of carefully selected articles by non-climate scientists, published in a non-climate journal, finds no evidence of a “climate emergency” …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/22/sky-and-the-australian-find-no-evidence-of-a-climate-emergency-they-werent-looking-hard-enough
What can one say? In a way, I guess it is a positive sign that the deniers are getting so desperate – they used to employ geophysicists to argue against climate scientists, now they are having to step up and employ nuclear physicists 🙁
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
House price update:
Since End April, the time of the first rate hike.
Sydney -8.1%
Melbourne -5.2%
Brisbane -3.0%
Adelaide +3.4%
Perth +0.8%
Other cities and nationwide published in early Oct.
It does look like the national figure is approx -4.5%
the people suporting the teels thinking there progresive need toconsider that there only successful in former liberal seats and there runing a candadate against labor in state horthorn they seem to be closer to the liberals economickly hopefuly they wont last to long
maybbi head office should have thought first before forcing mins as leader then he dumps our most effective mp in searle and will not dump mihailuk from parliament at least she is gone from shadow cabenit wish labor wooyuld dump gregg donnelly but the shoppies keeping him there he is very conservative anti choice and to the right of half the government
“I ain’t no wargaming expert, but if you’re immediately conscripting protesters for a war they want ended, aren’t at least some going to get to Ukraine and either immediately defect or otherwise go AWOL as soon as humanly possible?”
Most likely they will get shoved into positions by the political troops behind them. Those who survive bombardment of their positions will hunker down and hope they live through having their positions over run and be POW’s. Very hard for these people to go AWOL without getting shot by their own side and i suspect there will be “collective punishment” mechanisms in place for units who’s members do bugger off.
These kind of troops are not ones that can be relied on to do anything other than man a fixed defensive position or conduct very basic maneuvers under close supervision. Russia may be able to generate numbers of some sort, but its VERY unlikely they will have decent junior officers or experienced NCO’s to lead them.
And all that BEFORE you consider the political problems this mobilization is going to cause Putin and the Russian Army.
The reports that Putin is giving direct orders to front commanders is very disturbing and remarkably dangerous for all sides and participants in this conflict. 🙁
Confessions says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 7:31 am
Thanks BK.
The Morrison ministries and now the AAT jobs stack by Cash just shows the impotency of our head of state. If the GG is just signing off on these things without ensuring due process then we may as well do away with them as having any role in these matters.
The G-G is intended to be impotent. That is the entire point of constitutional monarchy. We can’t just “do away with” the H-o-S. The State must have a continuing, uninterrupted existence that’s separate from the installed government or legislature of the day, who are term-limited and subject to summary dismissal.
However, because the H-o-S is unelected and unaccountable, they can exercise no power. Their role is titular. This is the subtlety of the system. The silent compliance of the G-G means, in fact, that the system is working as intended.
It’s a system that’s republican for nearly purposes other than ceremonial exercises, with the exception being when the Senate and House cannot agree on Supply. It was a recalcitrant Senate, where the Reactionaries had enough numbers to block Supply, that brought G-G Kerr into the political fray. This is the real problem with the Constitution. The power of the Senate to withhold Supply and send the house to an election should be revoked. If this were achieved, we could say the Australian system is republican in all but name.
when labor is competative finaly mihiluik tries to help the liberals she has been in parliament since 2011
the stratigy of minns seems like his listening to walt secordlike Car he seems to triy and get the shock jocks on side they all ways seem to suport the liberals they even compaigned against Car Secord wil be a los in the upper house for hissmedia skills mins seems to be reliying on not doing much and focusing on media management at least he has a health policy now
mins also now needs a reshufil to replace his police spokesman secord pluse maybi he could get rid of some lower house mps that have served long enough like paul lynch and michael daley
C@tmomma @ #707 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 7:57 am
That is a long border with Belarus and Russia to the north. So numbers matter – even poorly trained reservists and conscripts will be a threat if they are fit, equipped, led and in large enough numbers to require defending against. Ukraine advances atm are slow going and hard won. Add additional fronts elsewhere and they will be thinned out. Ukraine will need help. They will need good intel and more hardware.
I dont want to overstate it; you are right, there are plenty of talking heads willing to point out the flaws in Putins mobilisation. I read them. But some verge on completely writing off these 300 000 plus conscripts. I am sure those who make the hard decisions are aware of the threat this will pose in the coming 6 months. How winter factors into this is going to be interesting. Not just on these Russian conscripts, but also the likelihood that Putin will try to freeze the people of Ukraine.
imacca says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 9:39 am
If Putin is attempting to give detailed, operational orders from Moscow that are to be carried out on the Don, then Russia has already lost the plot. This really means that there is no system of command. It is a sign of desperation – of military and political failure.
A powerful speech by the Columbian President to the UN.
“We serve you only to fill the emptiness and loneliness of your own society”
https://twitter.com/MomodouTaal/status/1572929509372104710?s=20&t=eknKzZxnO91-6cbiflirHg
Cronus at 3:34 am
“I suspect too that Russia qualitatively underestimated Ukrainian morale, perhaps overstating Russia’s success in Crimea and projecting it onto the broader Ukraine mainland.”
———–
Which leads to the question, what’s different? Zelenskyy, I think is the answer. Because of him, Ukraine is resolved to defeat Russia. Someone wrote on PB, that “They’re going to build statutes to him.” I agree. And based on that resolve US policy changed, per your point on intelligence and weapons. And by attacking Kyiv Putin unnerved everyone. That’s different too.
Late riser
Which leads to the question, what’s different? Zelenskyy, I think is the answer.
————
I have read that after the 2014 Russian invasion, the Ukrainians began a reform of their armed forces from the Soviet era structure to a more European structure. This has also made a difference.
It’s probably worth noting that the GG was handpicked by Morrison a few months before the 2019 election.
If the Labor Gov introduces fixed election dates with responsible caretaker laws that would be a democratic improvement.
I like this story in the Oz today. Albo is embracing the lessons learnt during his “apprenticeship” in the Hawke-Keating years while rejecting the mistakes of the R-G-R years. Labor, unfortunately IMHO, walked away from 13 years of success after Keating lost in 1996. This story may get “up the nose” of some posters here – if so “go blow it”.
“Anthony Albanese is on a mission to transform the way political, industrial and corporate power is exerted in Australia by actively enlisting big business to help deliver his economic and social agenda, as he seeks to redesign the Labor model for government.
An exclusive inside look into the corporate power bloc orbiting the Albanese government reveals a prime minister committed to resetting Labor’s focus by aligning factions and unions around a shared purpose, modernising the machinery of government and forging the party’s closest relationship with the private sector in decades.
Albanese – who had a front-row seat during the chaotic Rudd-Gillard years – has recalibrated Labor’s connection with the big end of town in pursuit of a broader tripartite consensus across the breadth of his agenda – from higher wages, narrowing the gender gap and productivity reforms to the voice and climate change.”
This quote from Anna Bligh encapsulates my thoughts:
“Australian Banking Association chief executive Anna Bligh, who has known Albanese for decades and has a direct line into government, said business now had a seat at the table. “My observation is that Anthony Albanese came of age throughout his 20s during the Hawke and Keating governments and like so many others, as a result, tripartism was an instinctive position for him,” the former Queensland Labor premier says.”
“It has been manifest from the earliest days in his leadership. I’ve sat around a number of boardroom tables … with a cross-section of the business community where he has made a point of reaching out, seeking views, asking questions and, importantly, really listening deeply.
“No government of any persuasion ever gets everything 100 per cent right … and there will always be things that are hard to navigate. But he has certainly made it clear he understands the challenges and opportunities that corporate Australia is facing.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/power-the-key-players-with-access-to-anthony-albaneses-inner-sanctum/news-story/69afd681a491f574b249be20f2fb6e87
SimonK.,
I think you are presupposing that the extra Russian manpower will be able to seamlessly fall into place and be effective on the battlefield. I’m not so sure.
*They’ve engaged in no military exercises before being sent away.
*Their level of commitment is suspect.
*The military hardware that they will be given to use is antiquated, with the most up-to-date being given to the Regulars.
*They are not fighting in their homeland. Ukraine is.
*Ukraine is presently being trained and outfitted to continue to wage the war through the Winter. Not to mention the snow will make the Russians stand out easily as I don’t think they will come prepared with winter camouflage uniforms.
*Ukraine’s soldiers are more committed to the fight.
*Ukraine will be waiting for them. 🙂
Good morning Upnorth 🙂
I don’t think Prime Minister Albanese will be holding secret ‘Cabinet’ meetings with big business honchos either.
UK Cartoons:
Lorna Miller: #JoeBiden ‘sick’ of ‘trickle-down economics’ touted by #LizTruss
Andy Davey: #ThereseCoffey gets to grips with access to GPs. Sorted
Dave Brown on #KwasiKwarteng #MiniBudget #LizTruss #TaxCuts #TrickleDown
Andy Davey: #LizTruss trying desperately to escape from the shadows and into the glorious light of her own international stature. That’ll almost certainly go well
Christian Adams on #Putin #UkraineRussiaWar #NuclearWeapons #MutuallyAssuredDestruction #MAD
Morten Morland’s Spectator cover on #Putin #UkraineRussiaWar #NuclearWeapons #MutuallyAssuredDestruction #MAD
Peter Brookes on #LizTruss #CostOfLivingCrisis
Steve Bell on the Truss-fuelled flight of the fat cats #LizTruss
Patrick Blower on #Putin #UkraineRussiaWar #NuclearWeapons #MutuallyAssuredDestruction #MAD
Dave Brown on #Putin #UkraineRussiaWar #NuclearWeapons #MutuallyAssuredDestruction #MAD
Peter Schrank on #Putin #PutinWarCriminal #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar
Christian Adams on #LizTruss #BritishEconomy
Martyn Turner on #CostOfLivingCrisis #EnergyBills
Boerwar @ #694 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 8:10 am
On those numbers I like Ukraine’s odds against Russia a lot better than I like Australia’s odds against China.
BK dawn patrol – continuing thanks.
Regarding Waleed Aly’s piece:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/forget-a-president-here-s-another-idea-20220921-p5bk02.html
It’s interesting that he uses the words like “realm”, “magic”, “predictable” while reaching for the other-worldly sublime aspect the monarchy gives us. As ever, he lets his cleverness show, but I think he’s on to something. I just don’t much like the something he found. It is infantilising. It makes a child of the man, to paraphrase an old idea. It surrenders self-confidence and replaces it with dull mindless hope. So that’s a “nope” from me. I don’t need that magic. (I have my own.)
And his side point about the political aspect of the monarchy is just an added weight and not the root cause of my distaste for his magic. (Briefly makes good points on this.) But if we desire the imagined comfort of monarchical skirts, as a secular nation, an Australian elder is intriguing idea. After all, the Dali Lama exists.
Rakali @ #737 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:01 am
Ah yes. Crimea itself is the difference. There’s an irony in that.
Upnorth at 10:05 am
There has been a problem with such kumbaya times between business,political Labor and industrial labour . The theory is great but the reality as shown here(Hawke Keating), NZ(‘Rogernomics’) and the UK(Blair) is that on the industrial front the workers end up being screwed and it is party time for the ‘neoliberals’ and business.
I’m still convinced that JWH was the worst PM in Australian history. Sure, SfM and Toned Abs were shockers but they were facilitated by The Rodent.
The white picket fence, relaxed and comfortable, aspirational scenario was the fertile ground that the ‘guided democracy’ espoused by TA and partially achieved by SfM came from.
The war criminal made it all possible.
Dog’s Brunch at 10:28 am
I’m with you Mr Brunch. Vote 1 Howard for Worst.
His side kick the Hammock Dweller would be up for worst treasurer given his embedding of a structural deficit and the pissing up against the wall of a ‘once in a lifetime’ mining boom. A real dynamic duo of awful.
A_E at 8.13
Morning all.
@bc:
“ Something I didn’t know, why nuclear submarines can’t touch bottom:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/iQyDxkk2SxM
Keeping them at least 40m from the ocean bottom does seem to limit where they can go.”
___________
Was any thought given to this issue BEFORE the AUKUS pivot? Given that our current capability is centred on stealth in the littoral, and I suggest this would remain a core requirement with any SSN based fleet? SSNs, especially HEU variants will not be able to use Morton Bay/Brisbane as a base because of this reason (plus the abundance of jellyfish and other marine life risking fouling the inlet cooling tubes), and I’d suggest that operations in the Arafura would also be … problematic.
____________
It would seem nuclear subs are great if we want to be the US’ 51st state and send subs on long, Pacific Ocean missions to North Korean waters, for example.
Patrolling choke points ranging from northern Australia to the South China Sea – places which directly bear on our national security – not so much.
The more I hear about AUKUS, the less I’m persuaded re nuclear subs. The case has not been made. Vice Admiral Noonan’s recent comments continue the failure to make the case by cherry-picking the worst-case for diesel subs and comparing it to the best case for nuclear ones.
Unfortunately, for a Labor govt to walk away from nuclear subs would require Marles to trash not only the Coalition (easy) but some admirals as well (unusual and a very bad look.)
Abandoning nuclear would require a Murdochrat like Greg Sheridan to advocate against nuclear subs, as a shield against the predictable “Labor downgrades our subs and weakens our security!” media storm.