The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
In the spirit of ‘getting the dirty water off my chest’ this morning…I don’t think the US will lay a glove on Trump, I’m thoroughly immune to any news that ‘this will be the end of Trump!’
Dog’s Brunch @ #748 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:28 am
I thoroughly agree. It’s like we have to go back to pre-Howard, and start again. So much time, money, effort wasted. So much lost. So much damage. So much to recover. And it has started. And I feel safe with Albanese. I like feeling safe.
Upnorth @ #740 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:05 am
Anyone who can’t see the elephant in this particular room is not really looking. You don’t reign in cartels like the fossil fuel industry by giving them a seat at the table.
Labor occasionally needs reminding about who elects governments, and on whose behalf those governments are supposed to act. Hint: it’s not “big business” in either case, unless you are a Liberal.
Dog’s Brunch at 10:42 am
Having ‘this will be the end of Trump!’ on high rotation since 2016 does build up a bit of a ‘I’ll believe it when I see it’ 😆
Trumpism will outlast Trump.
Trump is a gangster. They don’t end well. Neither will Trump.
Player One @ #753 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:46 am
You are so wrong. Keating said (to me, personally), that you have to, must, take business with you.
Dog’s Brunchsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:28 am
I’m still convinced that JWH was the worst PM in Australian history. Sure, SfM and Toned Abs were shockers but they were facilitated by The Rodent.
_____________________
Gillard for mine.
Stabbed Rudd up in the back, lost a sizable majority and then dumped by her party before the next election.
Pretty hard to beat as worst PM.
ItzaDream at 10:50 am
Very true, but as a fellow passenger on the bus, not as the bastard given the steering wheel .
C@tmomma says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:13 am
Good morning Upnorth
I don’t think Prime Minister Albanese will be holding secret ‘Cabinet’ meetings with big business honchos either.
中华人民共和国
You got that right sister!
poroti says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:28 am
Upnorth at 10:05 am
There has been a problem with such kumbaya times between business,political Labor and industrial labour . The theory is great but the reality as shown here(Hawke Keating), NZ(‘Rogernomics’) and the UK(Blair) is that on the industrial front the workers end up being screwed and it is party time for the ‘neoliberals’ and business.
中华人民共和国
I disagree comrade. Real wages and the social compact saw an increase in living standards for most Australian workers and families during the Hawke/Keating years. Argubly the reforms engendered by those 13 years ensured a massive growth in living standards for most Australians from the end of the Fraser years to the GFC and beyond.
One only has to look at the motor vehicles, televisions, mobile phones, food choices, superannuation not to mention services that average Australians enjoy today compared to 1983. Australias’ economy in 1983 was moribund, anemic and sickly.
It wasn’t all plain sailing though and many felt let down by the changes, but the stark choice was truly a “banana republic”.
The A/T/M Governments saw that compact broken and workers real living standards lowered.
You can hardly call the reforms of the Hawke/Keating years a “kumbaya” session and I know that first hand as I was at some of the State and National ALP Conferences that changed the way Australia operates.
It might come as surprise to some that business plays an important role in the economy and therefore living standards and tax take! Engaging with business and ensuring workers get a better deal from a more productive economy should be the goal of every Labor Government.
Trump frightened a far too many people. His life, as he knew it, is over. But I’m less sure about the ideas he watered. I hope they at least take the GOP down a notch or three. ETTD.
Taylormadesays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:54 am
Dog’s Brunchsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:28 am
I’m still convinced that JWH was the worst PM in Australian history. Sure, SfM and Toned Abs were shockers but they were facilitated by The Rodent.
_____________________
Gillard for mine.
Stabbed Rudd up in the back, lost a sizable majority and then dumped by her party before the next election.
Pretty hard to beat as worst PM.
____________________________________
Shows what you value is occupancy of the chair rather than getting good stuff done…
On Australian PMs, I think their harm caused is based on a combination of their political competence and level of ill-will.
Abbott was high ill-will but low political competence so he caused short-term damage.
Morrison was very high ill-will (the worst of the lot motivationally IMO) high tactical political competence but low strategic competence so medium-term damage caused.
Howard was high ill-will (nowhere near as corrupt as Morrison) but high tactical and low strategic competence so long-term damage caused
Taylormade says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:54 am
Dog’s Brunchsays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:28 am
I’m still convinced that JWH was the worst PM in Australian history. Sure, SfM and Toned Abs were shockers but they were facilitated by The Rodent.
_____________________
Gillard for mine.
Stabbed Rudd up in the back, lost a sizable majority and then dumped by her party before the next election.
Pretty hard to beat as worst PM.
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
For me, worst PM is Abbott. Came in with a whopping majority, proceeded to hand over running of the government to a staffer, then just wandered about a bit. Became a laughing stock to the nation and his party.
Player One says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:46 am
Upnorth @ #740 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:05 am
Albanese – who had a front-row seat during the chaotic Rudd-Gillard years – has recalibrated Labor’s connection with the big end of town in pursuit of a broader tripartite consensus across the breadth of his agenda – from higher wages, narrowing the gender gap and productivity reforms to the voice and climate change.”
Anyone who can’t see the elephant in this particular room is not really looking. You don’t reign in cartels like the fossil fuel industry by giving them a seat at the table.
Labor occasionally needs reminding about who elects governments, and on whose behalf those governments are supposed to act. Hint: it’s not “big business” in either case, unless you are a Liberal.
中华人民共和国
So what do you do P1? What’s your solution? Nationalise them? Ignore them?
Albo is right about the ALP needing a relationship with business because business is made up of people and most Australians own shares in businesses.
C@t at 8.29 (re nuclear subs and ocean floors)…
Soc,
Thanks for that explanation. Some people will believe any old guff in order to support their preconceived biases.
____________
Apologies if you already know the stuff I trot out below…
I question the nuclear subs argument regardless of the “40m off the floor” thing.
If we are going to defend Australia, we need subs that are excellent in waters that are shallower than the deep Pacific – like the Timor Sea, the Arafura, the South China and the Coral.
In shallower, more confined “littoral” waters, the superior quietness of diesel subs makes them superior.
Vice Admiral Noonan was either ignorant (and thus incompetent) or lying when he said recently diesel subs must “typically” surface “every day or two” to re-charge batteries. This has been avoidable for decades. The Swedish Gotland class, commissioned just after our Swedish-designed Collins, were the first to use what’s called Air Independent Propulsion (AIP). Their submerged time is greatly extended, but classified – the Swedes will only say it is “weeks.”
In 1996.
So much for Noonan.
A Swedish sub (equipped with AIP) famously “sank” an American aircraft carrier on exercise…
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-swedish-sub-ran-rings-around-us-aircraft-carrier-escorts-2021-7
In fact, the Americans leased a Swedish sub to help them develop better defences against diesel subs.
So much for Noonan.
When not using their (loud) diesel engines, diesel subs are quieter than nuclear subs, because the diesel sub is only using a near-silent electric motor to drive its propeller. Nuclear subs have to circulate coolant around their reactors, requiring coolant pumps which make noise.
Nuclear subs can generate more power and can transit across the ocean at high speed submerged (diesel subs can’t.) Once we get into more confined waters, diesel subs shine due to their quietness.
Noonan, Morrison and Dutton have been spinning webs of deceit for a year. The case for nuclear subs has not been made.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/21/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-32-greens-10-open-thread/comment-page-16/#comment-3982638
The Rodent HoWARd understood having the numbers
Hmmm, PJK privatised pensions, turfed out given the whole recession we had to have, less red and more blue labor
Always good for a line though
Hawke understood accords, unions, gov, biz
Elon Musk has a unique take:
Speaking at a conference in Norway, Musk claimed “civilization will crumble” if the world halted the use of oil and natural gas and called for continued drilling and exploration of fossil fuel sources, Reuters reported.
The billionaire suggested that the transition to green energy sources will take decades and that fossil fuels will be needed in the meantime.
Last week, Musk—who has previously evangelized renewable energy sources—called for increased nuclear power generation and attacked environmentalists who oppose nuclear plants as “anti-human.”
nath says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:08 am
For me, worst PM is Abbott. Came in with a whopping majority, proceeded to hand over running of the government to a staffer, then just wandered about a bit. Became a laughing stock to the nation and his party.
中华人民共和国
What about Scotty from Marketing? I guess he. in a way, was our most powerful Prime Minister, holding so many portfolios at once, but most Australians would agree he is a dickhead.
Dog’s Brunch says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:28 am
I’m still convinced that JWH was the worst PM in Australian history. Sure, SfM and Toned Abs were shockers but they were facilitated by The Rodent.
———————
Its becoming clearer that Howard was a poor PM because many of this country’s structural problems and the state of the Liberal Party are thanks to him.
I for one, believed Trump would have been held to account ages ago. I was wrong.
It has taken absolute ages and much damage has been done.
Him, his family and his cronies are slowly but surely being held to account.
Hopefully, his demise and that of Putin will happen at the same time.
Couldnt happen to nicer people.
Bruce would have to be up there. He very nearly succeeded in his ambition to help Churchill suck Australia dry while abandoning it to Japan.
nath says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:12 am
Elon Musk has a unique take:
Speaking at a conference in Norway, Musk claimed “civilization will crumble” if the world halted the use of oil and natural gas and called for continued drilling and exploration of fossil fuel sources, Reuters reported.
The billionaire suggested that the transition to green energy sources will take decades and that fossil fuels will be needed in the meantime.
Last week, Musk—who has previously evangelized renewable energy sources—called for increased nuclear power generation and attacked environmentalists who oppose nuclear plants as “anti-human.”
中华人民共和国
Nath a secret cobber – don’t let P1 see this!!
Upnorth says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:13 am
What about Scotty from Marketing? I guess he. in a way, was our most powerful Prime Minister, holding so many portfolios at once, but most Australians would agree he is a dickhead.
______
He actually won an election as PM. Which counts for something I suppose.
In my opinion, you could throw a blanket over Rudd, Gillard, MT.
Morrison and Abbott clearly stand out as extraordinary fuckwits. With Abbott taking the prize because he delegated the role of PM to a staffer. Which is quite astounding.
ItzaDream @ #691 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:45 am
Agree. It’s as if he really has been watching from the side of the stage as the understudy, then when he got his chance to be centre stage he took all that he had seen and learned from and synthesised it into what he believes is the way to successfully go forward.
Musk has been becoming gradually unhinged for several years now. He’s jockeying to become the right’s new poster-boy once Trump is finally out of their system. Can’t do that without chucking an olive branch at the fossil fuel industry.
What else is new?
Upnorth
“I disagree comrade. Real wages and the social compact saw an increase in living standards for most Australian workers and families during the Hawke/Keating years. Argubly the reforms engendered by those 13 years ensured a massive growth in living standards for most Australians from the end of the Fraser years to the GFC and beyond. ”
Sadly I think most people under 40 do not comprehend how much the Hawke/Keating governments improved Australian living standards.
The Hawke / Keating era was also more progressive than most people remember too. From Susan Ryan and others advancing womens’ rights to environmental laws, and starting to implement Mabo, Labor did take on “hard” issues at that time.
To me one of the lessons of both Hawke – Keating and Howard is that it is easier to persuade people to change things when their lives are getting better, and harder when things are getting worse. Progressive politics is helped by prosperity.
One of the stupidest aspects of current business “leaders” of the born-to-steal generation of leadership, is their ignorance of the fact that poorly paid workers have less money to spend. Likewise housing price booms only benefit companies that working in the housing and finance industry. Every other industry is faced with declining disposable income. Greed is no barrier to stupidity. (This is why I also dislike the SDA, who have done too many inexcusable sweetheart deals with big retailers that lowered workers pay).
That being said, there are limits to business cosiness. Industries that do NOT improve the standard of living for the majority deserve no assistance from Labor.
For me the oil and gas industry really crosses that line. It is low-employment (< one job for every $3 million in turnover; worse than jet fighter purchase!), mostly foreign owned and pays very little tax. Some years subsidies exceed taxes paid. Why should it pay lower royalties than coal??
Even if climate change was not an issue (and it IS!), Australian oil and gas companies need to be read the riot act by Labor. In terms of self interest, oil & gas donations skew sharply to the LNP as well.
a r says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:22 am
Musk has been becoming gradually unhinged for several years now. He’s jockeying to become the right’s new poster-boy once Trump is finally out of their system. Can’t do that without chucking an olive branch at the fossil fuel industry.
What else is new?
_________________
Jealousy is a curse.
nath says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:18 am
Upnorth says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:13 am
What about Scotty from Marketing? I guess he. in a way, was our most powerful Prime Minister, holding so many portfolios at once, but most Australians would agree he is a dickhead.
______
He actually won an election as PM. Which counts for something I suppose.
In my opinion, you could throw a blanket over Rudd, Gillard, MT.
Morrison and Abbott clearly stand out as extraordinary fuckwits. With Abbott taking the prize because he delegated the role of PM to a staffer. Which is quite astounding.
中华人民共和国
Fair call cobber, fair call. Its like “Golden Point” at the end of the Grand Final to decide the biggest dickhead. But I got not argument with you.
ItzaDream @ #696 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:50 am
And it’s also what Bob Hawke thought. It’s also why they were the most successful Labor government to date, and why Player One can be found out in the boonies, bitching, moaning and carping about Labor federal governments and achieving, nothing.
Upnorth
PS I was too young and low level to get to any national conferences during Hawke – Keating but I was a party member and briefly secretary of my branch in the early 90s. I met Wayne Swan a few times at meetings and heard Hawke give an excellent speech in the Cairns Labor club in 1991. I found the factionalism in Brisbane deeply disillusioning and resigned in about 1997.
Upnorth at 10.05 re Albo and govt/union/business “consensus”…
The opposite of hard-Right, (neo) Trumpism, as brought to us by the likes of Morrison and Dutton, isn’t hard-Left (neo) Communism.
It is centre-Left consensus govt.
It needs to be Left of centre to protect workers who have less power than business. It needs to strive for consensus where possible to facilitate people and sectors working together efficiently.
Working together efficiently maximises the wealth of the nation, while providing basic protections for those most vulnerable.
Centre-Left consensus govt is really the only acceptable form of capitalism.
We had it from 1983 to 1996. We saw glimpses between 2007 and 2013. I suspect Albo is far more committee to this model than any Labor leader since Hawke (who’s Rhodes scholarship thesis was on consesnsus in the market economy.)
Upnorth at 11:00 am
The charts of the ‘peasants’ share of GDP tell a different story. For business it was one of the ‘Mission Accomplished’ of The Accord. The relative reduction of ‘labour costs’ ie wages was one of the stated aims. Wage restraint was supposed to be swapped for job security . How long did ‘business’ honor their side of the bargain ?
.
Exploring the Decline in the Labour Share of GDP
https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/exploring-the-decline-in-the-labour-share-of-gdp/
Victoria @ #712 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 11:15 am
The wheels of Justice grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly fine.
And I hope Trump and Putin get ground into mincemeat.
Here is some visibility for McLachan:
https://www.afl.com.au/video/848024/-racism-is-still-alive-in-this-country-yokayi-footy-on-hawks-allegations?videoId=848024&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1663876800001
Socrates says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:23 am
“Sadly I think most people under 40 do not comprehend how much the Hawke/Keating governments improved Australian living standards.
The Hawke / Keating era was also more progressive than most people remember too. From Susan Ryan and others advancing womens’ rights to environmental laws, and starting to implement Mabo, Labor did take on “hard issues at that time.”
中华人民共和国
+1 Soc – Franklin Dam, Daintree Rainforest – welcoming arms to Chinese Students after Tianamen. Joan Childs as Speaker.
poroti,
Don’t be so misleading. If you were being honest, you would acknowledge that The Accord, if fully implemented, would have had a completely different outcome, but that as soon as Howard and Costello got into power they started about the project of altering it so that it bore no resemblance to Hawke and Keating’s vision.
tl:dr Elon Musk:
Everything, all the time.
Bwana Bandt seems to be irony-free.
He verbally stormed the HawksGate ramparts with outrage and aplomb…. on behalf of Indigenous people.
Hint: that is what the Voice is for, Bwana.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:30 am
poroti,
Don’t be so misleading. If you were being honest, you would acknowledge that The Accord, if fully implemented, would have had a completely different outcome, but that as soon as Howard and Costello got into power they started about the project of altering it so that it bore no resemblance to Hawke and Keating’s vision.
中华人民共和国
Correct C@t. Lies, lies and statistics.
As my old man says “The only good thing about “the good old days” are that they are over”.
The living standards he and mum enjoy post retirement (superannuation) and their kids and grandkids enjoy today as a result of those reforms are far far better than what my Grandad and Nana had to retire on and that he, as a young adult, had when growing up and supporting a family.
Snappy Tom at 11:26 am
Hawke-Keating had a vision somewhat along the lines of how it was between business and unions in Western Germany as it was then. Something that was written about a number of times back in the day. I reckoned it was the way to go.
Unfortunately , whatever ‘business’ may have said to Hawke-Keating, they were not so on board. It all turned out rather ‘one way street’ , most especially after the advent of The Rodent.
Upnorth at 11:36 am
Superannuation. Praise be to the Flying Spaghetti Monster that there were some reforms even The Rodent could not kill. Medicare and Superannuation remain as ‘national monuments’ to Labor.
Upnorth at 11:36 am
Superannuation. Praise be to the Flying Spaghetti Monster that there were some reforms even The Rodent could not kill. Medicare and Superannuation remain as ‘national monuments’ to Labor
I don’t think Howard was the worst PM.
I do certainly think he was the most damaging PM, especially with the legacy he left in the Liberal Party.
Upnorth
“Franklin Dam, Daintree Rainforest – welcoming arms to Chinese Students after Tianamen. Joan Childs as Speaker.”
Exactly. Another excellent list. You can add the Great Barrrier Reef Authority and a lot of work to protect world heritage environments in multiple parts of Australia.
And we started building Collins Class submarines, which were highly effective, despite Liberal insecurity ministers BS 🙂
David Johnson said the ASC “Could not build a canoe”.
I think the real problem is Liberal Insecurity ministers could not contract the building of a canoe if their lives depended on it.
Perhaps they decided to keep Australians insecure because they thought it would make us more likely to vote Liberal?
C@tmommasays:
Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11:32 am
tl:dr Elon Musk:
“Everything, all the time.”
Que?
ItzaDream @ #757 Friday, September 23rd, 2022 – 10:50 am
Sure. But what you can’t do is let business dictate you where you go.
Trump is being investigated at least 6 different ways. It has me thinking about the submarine discussion on this blog. They aren’t all going to miss. Some quotes from a recent NYT article, already starting to show their age, show that things are still progressing.
(1) New York – fraud: For years, according to his own associates, he inflated the value of his various properties to obtain loans. Letitia James, the New York State attorney general, has been examining his business practices for more than three years to determine if they constituted fraud.
(2) Manhattan – fraud, tax evasion: The Manhattan district attorney’s office, now led by Alvin L. Bragg, has looked into some of the same issues as part of a criminal investigation and is about to bring the Trump Organization, the former president’s family business, to trial on charges of fraud and tax evasion starting on Oct. 24.
(3) Georgia – interfering with an election: Mr. Trump put himself in possible legal jeopardy in the swing state of Georgia on Jan. 2, 2021, when he called Brad Raffensperger, the secretary of state, and demanded that he “find 11,780 votes,”
(4) Congress – lots: The House committee investigating the Capitol attack of Jan. 6, 2021, composed of seven Democrats and two Republicans, has done more to lay out a possible criminal case against Mr. Trump in the public space than any of the former president’s pursuers.
(5) DOJ – fake electors, fraud: Mr. Garland’s team now seems to be examining multiple angles, including the fake electors plan, Mr. Trump’s fund-raising operation as he promoted false claims about election fraud and the former president’s own role in seeking to overturn the election.
(6) DOJ – Classified documents: The latest threat to the former president stems from his insistence on flying home with thousands of documents owned by the government, including hundreds marked with varying classified designations, and his failure to give them all back when asked.