Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)

A burst of enthusiasm for the monarchy, steady support for federal Labor, and some other stuff.

Two contributions from Roy Morgan: its weekly report video tells us this week’s federal polling has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53.5-46.5, without offering any information on primary votes, and it has an SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic, albeit it might be faulted for having been conducted at an uncommonly opportune moment for monarchist sentiment.

The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction, the highest of any state. Conversely, 53% of New South Wales respondents felt the state was heading in the wrong direction and only 35% believed the Perrottet government was doing a good job, the worst results for any state, although sample sizes in some cases would have been very small. The polling was conducted from August 31 to September 5 from a sample of 1502, 600 of whom were in Victoria.

Finally, the first batch of submissions – 212 of them – have been published from the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election. I haven’t had time to read any of them myself, but there are a good many notable names featured, though nothing yet from the parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,137 comments on “Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)”

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  1. kezza2 says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 5:45 pm

    It’s you that’s not grateful for the work done by farmers.
    ______
    Everyone is grateful. But the whining never ends about how ungrateful we are.

  2. Today is the 17 September, the day in 1939 when the Soviet Union invaded Poland, assisting the Nazi Germans, as agreed in the German-Soviet Pact & its secret protocol that divided Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland & Romania into German & Soviet “spheres of influence.” ….. they have form!

  3. nath

    And the whining never ends when foodstuffs run short. Think covid. Otherwise you’d never think of the farmers; except to belly-ache about them.

    Farmers work hard, a lot harder than you, who can grace a keyboard 24/7/365. And they’re dependent on the weather to make a buck.

    For all you sexual fantasies, you don’t seem to do much else.

  4. Re milk, a nearby Woolworths has a lot of shelf space for a wide range of pretend milks – almond, oat, soy etc. Real cow’s milk comprised less than a third of the total ‘milk’ on display.

  5. If you think that there is a shortage of doctors now just wait until you pay them the same as now for four days work. Not to worry. The Greens reckon that someone wrote a book about it!

  6. Putin warns of escalation as India, China distance from Russia

    Underlining Russia’s widening isolation on the world stage, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India told President Vladimir Putin on Friday that it is no time for war — even as the Russian president threatened to escalate the brutality of his campaign in Ukraine.

    The televised admonishment by Mr Modi at a regional summit in Uzbekistan came a day after Mr Putin acknowledged that Xi Jinping, China’s leader, had “questions and concerns” about the war.

    Taken together, the distancing from Mr Putin by the heads of the world’s two most populous countries — both of which have been pivotal to sustaining Russia’s economy in the face of Western sanctions — punctured the Kremlin’s message that Russia was far from a global pariah.

    https://www.afr.com/world/europe/putin-warns-of-escalation-as-india-china-distance-from-russia-20220917-p5biuw

  7. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 5:54 pm

    Farmers grind away 24/7.
    ______
    they aren’t indentured servants. They could have spent their life surfing if they wanted to.

  8. “ A-E
    FMD.
    If farmers all over the world worked a four day week the world be an entertaining place! Forget milk, cheese and butter. Think fruit rotting on the bushes. And so on and so forth.”

    _____

    Comrade, I think you have lost the plot.

    The current 5 day standard working week has little application to farmers. Nor their workers. Especially for dairy operations. So your comparison is completely irrelevant to the debate as to whether a “standard working week” should be over 4 days or 5 because few – if any – farming folk or their hands work in that sort of pattern.

  9. kezza2 says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 6:11 pm

    Fool, as in idiot, a waste of space.
    ______
    Bed time for you. You’ve got cows to milk at 4 am.

  10. The Greens are hardly on an island when it comes to the four day workweek. There are more than a few people arguing it’s benefits internally within the ALP as well. I wouldn’t surprised at all if it ends up on a future Labor government’s agenda in the next decade.

    It’s not about forcing anyone to work less hours than they want to. Farmers won’t be made to stare at a wall three days a week while their cow’s udders are about to burst. This is a reform intended for salaried workers in traditional 9-5, Monday-to-Friday industries, ideally coupled with accompanied payrises for shift-workers and the like who otherwise wouldn’t benefit. On top of that, the idea isn’t that everybody works the *same* four days each week. Different employees at the same business get different days off.

    I’m rather agnostic on the whole thing myself, but there have been some very solid arguments made about societal and economic benefits of the four day workweek, many made by people who are not scary commies hiding under Boerwar’s bed.

    It is quite possible that such a change is not the right things at all the present economic conditions, but to completely write off the idea purely because it’s been suggested by *GASP* the Greens is ridiculous. Judge the policy on its merits (or lack thereof.)

  11. The parade of humanity past the coffin is astounding. Many, most, nearly all, are seen close up. Most bow. There’s a tendency to focus on military, a beret, a medal, a ribbon, a salute. Foreign dignitaries must be arriving in London – there’s a special elevated viewing area on one side, where they are ushered in. They too are seen in close up. This is people watching as never before, or again, endless.

  12. The prospect of waiting hours in line to catch a brief glimpse of the corpse of somebody I’ve never even met before has about as much appeal to me as sawing my own nuts off with a rusty carving knife.

  13. Asha says:
    Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 6:53 pm

    The idea of waiting hours in line to catch a brief glimpse of the corpse of somebody I’ve never even met before had about as much appeal to me as sawing my own nuts off with a rusty carving knife.
    _____
    I would much rather go to the Lying in State than do what you suggested.

  14. This morning we had a short discussion on the merits of relying on an accused’s “character” in a criminal trial, wtte, it’s a risky strategy.

    Fiji PM Frank Bainimarama ‘deeply concerned’ by son’s domestic violence and assault charges in Australia

    Lawyer Tony Edward told the court his client would reply(sic?) on “his good character in his defence”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-17/fiji-pm-concerned-by-sons-domestic-violence-assault-charges/101451306

  15. Shoebridge did not limit his announcement to urbster knowledge economy workers. One in all in. Everyone on a four day week. Four day schools. Four day hospitals. Four day farms. Four day lawyers. Four day ambos. Four day cops. Four day firies. Four day truckies. Four day house keepers. Three days of R+R for everyone!

  16. ItzaDream @ #172 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 6:49 pm

    The parade of humanity past the coffin is astounding. Many, most, nearly all, are seen close up. Most bow. There’s a tendency to focus on military, a beret, a medal, a ribbon, a salute. Foreign dignitaries must be arriving in London – there’s a special elevated viewing area on one side, where they are ushered in. They too are seen in close up. This is people watching as never before, or again, endless.

    You may be interested in this perspective on the process.

    I’m an expert in crowd behaviour – don’t be fooled that everyone queueing in London is mourning the Queen
    Stephen Reicher

    What we are seeing in Britain right now – and what makes the nature and narratives of the mourning crowds so significant – is not just an expression of nationhood but an exercise in the making of nationhood. What makes this exercise so effective is that a loyalist and deferential version of Britishness is not simply imposed on us from the top. It draws on genuine and deep emotions among many millions of people – myself included

    All in all, it is a more modern and more subtle form of “taking the king’s shilling”, whereby what seems at the time like a rather modest act leads to lifelong impressment in the king’s service.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/15/crowd-behaviour-london-mourning-queen

  17. Asha @ #173 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 6:53 pm

    The idea of waiting hours in line to catch a brief glimpse of the corpse of somebody I’ve never even met before had about as much appeal to me as sawing my own nuts off with a rusty carving knife.

    Asha, it’s no glimpse of a corpse. It’s a hugely emotional and theatrical experience. Just to repeat, I am an Australian republican 100%, but I am absolutely fascinated by this extraordinary phenomenon. It is some of the most compelling television I’ve ever seen. I’ve no expectation that anyone else is such a people watcher, but if you are, this is something else – just seeing how people deal with the experience, themselves, and their emotions.

    There has recently been quite a few what look like to be Pacific Islanders in the VIP visitors area, maybe from the Albanese flight.

    Oh, they’re changing the guard again. Some of this is ridiculously over-choreographed. And the people wait, and then keep coming, and coming.

  18. Late Riser @ #179 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 7:04 pm

    ItzaDream @ #172 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 6:49 pm

    The parade of humanity past the coffin is astounding. Many, most, nearly all, are seen close up. Most bow. There’s a tendency to focus on military, a beret, a medal, a ribbon, a salute. Foreign dignitaries must be arriving in London – there’s a special elevated viewing area on one side, where they are ushered in. They too are seen in close up. This is people watching as never before, or again, endless.

    You may be interested in this perspective on the process.

    I’m an expert in crowd behaviour – don’t be fooled that everyone queueing in London is mourning the Queen
    Stephen Reicher

    What we are seeing in Britain right now – and what makes the nature and narratives of the mourning crowds so significant – is not just an expression of nationhood but an exercise in the making of nationhood. What makes this exercise so effective is that a loyalist and deferential version of Britishness is not simply imposed on us from the top. It draws on genuine and deep emotions among many millions of people – myself included

    All in all, it is a more modern and more subtle form of “taking the king’s shilling”, whereby what seems at the time like a rather modest act leads to lifelong impressment in the king’s service.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/15/crowd-behaviour-london-mourning-queen

    Thanks, and yes L R. There’s a lot going on here. I posted another interesting (I thought) piece from the Guardian last night by four foreign correspondents in London. My take away is that they are mourning their past, and the future they’ll never see. There’s a bleak Tory winter ahead.

  19. Late Riser:

    Oh, don’t get me wrong, I can certainly see the appeal of watching it from the comfort of one’s living room or computer desk, safe in the knowledge that you can go do something else once you’re sick of it, but actually enduring the experience in person strikes me as being a particularly sadistic circle of hell.

    But then I hate standing in queues even at the best of times. My knee aches just looking at some of those images.

  20. It’s really strange. We’ve had a five day workweek for as long as I’ve been alive, and yet somehow I’ve had no trouble dining out and shopping and going to the hospital on a weekend. I guess I also hallucinated all those times I was rostered on for six days a week back when I was a shop assistant?

  21. MB:

    getting to enjoy a few minutes in Westminster Hall.

    I think you and I may have slightly different interpretations of the word “enjoy.”

  22. Evening all. On farming and working hours, Rex said:

    “ Farmers grind away 24/7.

    Not easy never switching off.

    It’s natural they’re grumpy all the time.”

    No! Seriously – What farms have you worked on? It varies a lot by industry, but farm work varies hugely by season. Some times of the year are very busy, with long hours, literally sunup to sundown. But others are quiet, and farm folk travel, play sport, whatever. It is a lifestyle many people love.

    These days most work on big rural properties is highly mechanised or for stuff like fruit picking done by a host of low paid backpackers or labour hire workers.

    Bottom line – there is no way most farmers work more than the average taxi driver, and less than a lot of nurses, law graduates and many city workers who run their own business. Farmers “working” 24/7 is mythology.

    (I was born in country Qld, my cousins owned a farm in Qld which I spent several holidays on, and worked in several rural regions in my early years as a graduate).

  23. Asha
    I think you and I may have slightly different interpretations of the word “enjoy.”
    ——————————
    Wouldn’t you enjoy being in a room that has seen so much history.

  24. Asha
    Is it not open to the public normally? I’d prefer to go on a day where it’s relatively quiet and take my time.
    ——————————-
    That would beat lining up for 14 hours.

  25. Five days pay for four days work for everyone! There would be no need for nasty six day rosters or EVEN nasty five day rosters. It is going to be sheer bliss!

  26. So satisfying to see a game come down to the wire like that! Well played Collingwood, not sure Sydney was supposed to get to the GF?

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