Two contributions from Roy Morgan: its weekly report video tells us this week’s federal polling has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53.5-46.5, without offering any information on primary votes, and it has an SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic, albeit it might be faulted for having been conducted at an uncommonly opportune moment for monarchist sentiment.
The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction, the highest of any state. Conversely, 53% of New South Wales respondents felt the state was heading in the wrong direction and only 35% believed the Perrottet government was doing a good job, the worst results for any state, although sample sizes in some cases would have been very small. The polling was conducted from August 31 to September 5 from a sample of 1502, 600 of whom were in Victoria.
Finally, the first batch of submissions – 212 of them – have been published from the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election. I haven’t had time to read any of them myself, but there are a good many notable names featured, though nothing yet from the parties.
ItzaDream
Feeling inspired to go to this after the massed pipes and drums from last night.
https://brigadoon.org.au/
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 8:30 am
“ Yesterday there was an observation that the Czechs beg to differ about Chamberlain’s sell-out. They have his signed document on public display.”
A study of the Munich Agreement identifies pretty quickly that the historical parallel with Taiwan is simply rubbish. In the former case, Czechoslovakia was a unified nation state, but about 3 million germans living in the western Sudenland arguably wanted to be part of the Reich. In Taiwan’s case, both sides constitution and law say “we are china” (but argue that they should respectively should be the one ruler of all of it). The independence movement is modern and recognition of a ‘breakaway’ state (which still hasnt even declared itself as such) does not conform to international law.
To illustrate the upside down, and inside out “logic” employed by shouting “appeasement” and “Chamberlain” consider this:
On 22 March 1938, The Times of London had stated in a leading article by its editor, G.G. Dawson, that Great Britain could not undertake war to preserve Czech sovereignty over the Sudeten Germans without first clearly ascertaining the latter’s wishes; otherwise Great Britain “might well be fighting against the principle of self-determination”.
History doesn’t repeat. It may rhyme, but its important to actually pick up the right beat when drawing historical parallels.
To my mind the historical lessons to be learned is that there is a middle way between the deliberately provocative actions now being promulgated by the American Administration and Congress AND ‘obsequious appeasement’. Of course, Taiwan is simply a pawn in another game, and the autonomy and freedom of its people is being deliberately and unnecessarily being put on the chopping block in the name of the furtherance of American hegemony in East Asia. This gambit is a vanity play by a declining world power, done without due regard to the fact that the rising superpower actually sees this as existential.
”
A-E
As I posted earlier
China says I dare you
Biden says I double dare you
Chicken Hawks say I triple dare you.
In the meantime US 1 China policy, which US Administration says it honours as of yesterday, is in tatters.
I wonder what could go wrong.
There is a saying in Sanskrit:
Vinasa kaale’ vipsritha buddihi
(Translation: Apocalyptic times spawn extreme thoughts.)
Sellouts are sellouts. All the rest is detail.
Stooge @ #846 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 8:51 am
Thanks Briefly.
From the article:
For comparison:
5MT per year versus 43.1GT per year is (very roughly) 0.01% of the CO2 emissions. You’d need ten thousand of these monsters to remove the CO2 being released. The article mentions four others, including one in Australia.
While we are on the topic of sellouts, betrayals and handwringing what is our policy when China offers to support the independent state of Bougainville? Or perhaps supports a new state based on the Indigenous majority areas of Cape York, Arnhemland and the Kimberley?
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 8:39 am
“ On Biden’s Taiwan statement, in light of the Ukraine situation, it is the correct call.”
Absolute bullshit. If you want to draw present day parallels, then the lesson of Ukraine is that a well resourced and committed ‘little guy’ stands a good chance of beating off a ‘big guy’ without direct military involvement of one nuclear superpower against another nuclear superpower. What Taiwan needs is a lifting of all restrictions on them acquiring the kit to make invasion an impossible bloodbath, and all the air defence/missile shield technology required to make an attempted block-aid impractical. What Taiwan also needs is a deliberate toning down of all the deliberate ‘in your face’ american and western provocations of China in the past 10 years.
The actions of congress and Biden are actually likely to provoke a ‘go now’ and ‘throw everything at Taiwan’ response by the ChiComms. It would be carnage, but China has the heft that the Russians don’t have. Mao thought that losing 50 million people but securing the island was ‘worth it’, and Xi is apparently more Mao than Deng.
World gone mad.
Do you really think that America has the stomach for that sort of conflict? Really? After losing interest and being run out of Afghanistan by a bunch of hill billies in hilux utes just last year?
”
I am with you A-E on this assessment.
I think Biden was smart by going to the Queen’s funeral, unlike Truman who sent his secretary of state (Acheson) to her father’s … in ’52. There’s a fair bit of respect for the late Queen in the USA and moreover the transfer of power – at least “soft” power – was in stark contrast to Jan, 6. His attendance may have a positive bearing on the mid-terms.
As for the Queen’s funeral & committal services, I found that other than the undue influence of religion, particularly the risible claims of eternal life, they were pretty classy & relatively short. However, they took far too long between gigs; for example, the slow march along the Long Walk up to St. George’s Chapel, Windsor. In total the whole affair took
over 6 six hours.
And, although biased, I thought the 142 matelots who manned the gun carriage looked great in their unpretentious uniforms compared to many others, some of whom looked like characters from a G & S comic opera – vesti la giubba.
Poroti
The saving grace about Chicken Hawks is that they spawned or atleast got their say after Soviet Union collapsed.
If they had their say like Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz Bill Kristol, we would have had WW3 during Cuban missile crisis.
Even after repeated failures of US Gunboat policy in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, especially after humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan as late as last year, no lessons seems to be learnt.
A side may technically prevail in a war but nobody wins in a war. It is all round destruction.
https://www.britannica.com/science/carbon-chemical-element
“ Sellouts are sellouts. All the rest is detail.”
Everything not a hammer is a nail, declared a hammer.
Well the whole Queen thing has advanced Australian republicanism by about 5 years, just out of the boredom and irrelevance factor. Well played Mr Albanese.
”
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 9:15 am
While we are on the topic of sellouts, betrayals and handwringing what is our policy when China offers to support the independent state of Bougainville? Or perhaps supports a new state based on the Indigenous majority areas of Cape York, Arnhemland and the Kimberley?
We should oppose that. As simple as that.
“ If they had their say like Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz Bill Kristol, we would have had WW3 during Cuban missile crisis.”
Perhaps the most deft bit of internal ‘team management’ by the Kennedy’s was to sideline Curtis LeMay when it really counted.
Sellouts are sellouts. Calling them ‘nails’ adds copout to sellout.
What about China helping set up an independent nation of TSI?
Yep, I agree with A.E.
Let Taiwan gain the capacity to fend off an invasion.
The US directly fighting China would be as bad as the US being directly involved in the Ukraine.
It’s hard to see Biden’s comment as anything but short sighted and aimed at a domestic audience.
It’s a comment worthy of Morrison.
”
Mavissays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 9:19 am
I think Biden was smart by going to the Queen’s funeral, unlike Truman who sent his secretary of state (Acheson) to her father’s … in ’52. There’s a fair bit of respect for the late Queen in the USA and moreover the transfer of power – at least “soft” power – was in stark contrast to Jan, 6. His attendance may have a positive bearing on the mid-terms.
”
Mavis
IMHO, Biden went to funeral because it will have positive bearing on the mid-terms.
And Biden is sabre rattling about Taiwan because it will have a positive bearing on the mid-terms.
“ Sellouts are sellouts. Calling them ‘nails’ adds copout to sellout.”
Damn straight, Mr Hammer!
As a matter of honour I request, nay DEMAND that ‘we’ invade Indonesia tomorrow to liberate West Papua. Surely your battalion of crack wombat shock troops are ready to deploy behind you Generalissimo Boerwar …
I’m not well enough to go toe to toe with the florid imaginings of Andrew_Earlwood but may I just observe that the Taiwanese are no pawns in anyone’s greater game (except if you count the unreasonable expectations of the Chinese). In fact they are a nation, proud of the fact of their separation from China and a full 89% of them would like it to stay that way. According to the latest poll. America is simply making clear that it will come to their aid if necessary in order to prevent them from being assimilated by the Chinese Borg.
And it’s simply guff to make the rash assumption that China will become the pre-eminent global superpower. Last time I looked America was still the number one economy in the world and making plans to keep it that way and China’s economy was the one that was faltering.
I can see why selling out needed to be redefined as peace in our time or hammer. Whatever. The Czechs knew a sellout when thet lived it.
Barney
“It’s a comment worthy of Morrison.”
If you bet on that there is a good chance that you will win hands down.
“ It’s hard to see Biden’s comment as anything but short sighted and aimed at a domestic audience.
It’s a comment worthy of Morrison.”
___
Biden has form. Here he was 40 years ago this year invoking NATO as a Casus Belli to go all in with Britain over the Falklands:
https://youtu.be/3C9hxsRO7pI
Ven:
[‘Mavis
IMHO, Biden went to funeral because it will have positive bearing on the mid-terms.
And Biden is sabre rattling about Taiwan because it will have a positive bearing on the mid-terms.’]
Yep. And I think it will work. He’s also just announced that
the C.19 pandemic is over, even though there is some 400 dying daily. It could be an aligning of the planets.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-said-pandemic-is-over-is-it-2022-09-19/
And of course, C@t climbs off her sick bed to salute the (American) flag and indulge in some wish-casting worthy only of Dutton, the wolverines and ASPI war boners.
Welcome back C@t.
Hi Mavis. Good to se you posting today!
Historyintime says:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 9:31 am
Well the whole Queen thing has advanced Australian republicanism by about 5 years, just out of the boredom and irrelevance factor. Well played Mr Albanese.
The monarchy is sewn into the hems and cuffs, into the waist and the armpits, into the linings, the shoulders and the collar of the Constitution. It is just not going to be possible to unpick this jacket, the dark blue frocking from the 1890s.
Frankly, outmoded it may be, but worn out it’s not. Why, the elbows and the lapels – silk, I think – look hardly touched. The tails hang straight enough too, the gusset still firm. And the sides are flat.
The suiting is woollen. Still fine.
“ I can see why selling out needed to be redefined as peace in our time or hammer. Whatever. The Czechs knew a sellout when thet lived it.”
Of course Chamberlain could had said “fuck you” Mr Hitler in September 1939. He’d have done so alone; without any prospect of getting troops or material to the Czechs in time to make a difference to their 47 divisions being run through a meat grinder by the Nazis, but hey the ‘feel good’ factor would have been awesome (except that the nation in September 1938 – Churchill aside – was diametrically opposed to such notions). ‘Britain stands up to Hitler in 1938’ had as much chance of aiding Czechoslovakia as stopping the orbit of the earth around the sun. “Appeasement’ however brought Britain a precious 20 months to get all the things sorted it needed to fight a general European war; which ultimately was the point of the ‘peace of paper’. Far from worthless it allowed Britain to – for example – get Home Chain up and running; roll out the world’s first air defence system; get Hurricanes and Spitfires into full production; acquire the logistics supply lines for 100 Octane fuel from America; develop all those shadow factories from the Auto industry for aviation manufacture; develop the ability to turn local mechanic shops and the like into impromptu aircraft repair centres and so on.
….the Taiwanese are no pawns in anyone’s greater game … In fact they are a nation…
Well, err, no they’re not. That is precisely the issue.
I have dear friends in Taiwan. I’ve been there often. I have friends in China too and – prior to being “sanctioned” by Xi – travelled there to see them. I have many Chinese friends here too. My wish is for peace in Taiwan – for the contentment and safety of my friends. I fear for them.
UK Cartoons:
P.S. I don’t care what replaces the monarchy, so long as the services and traditions aren’t so god dam BORING!!!!
Ven at 9:23 am
Damned right there. Thank goodness some of the Bludgers ‘warriors’ weren’t in there , it would have been WWIII in about 10 seconds flat.
Re the ‘Chicken Hawks’ . It was quite amazing to see just how many of the tough guy war fans of Dubya’s crew managed to be ‘unavailable’ when they came up for the draft. I can’t imagine how galling it must have been for John Kerry, who actually fought and was wounded there, to have been ‘Swift boated’ by that bunch of draft dodging Chicken Hawks.
Ven at 9:23 am
Damned right there. Thank goodness some of the Bludgers ‘warriors’ weren’t in there , it would have been WWIII in about 10 seconds flat. Re the ‘Chicken Hawks’ . It was quite amazing to see just how many of the tough guy war fans of Dubya’s crew managed to be ‘unavailable’ when they came up for the draft. I can’t imagine how galling it must have been for John Kerry, who actually fought and was wounded there, to have been ‘Swift boated’ by that bunch of draft dodging Chicken Hawks.
Well, everything will be back to normal soon, with the Royals receding into the background. The ABC News is showing normal news mixed in with Royal stuff. Last night’s ceremonies, including the sermons, were very traditional British and Anglican. They would have been little different from what we might have seen in the 1950s or 60s, or at a funeral of Edward VIII in a parallel universe in 1972. All very traditional, which is no doubt what the Queen, the Royals, the establishment and people who queue for 12-24 hours wanted.
RHWombat
Just throwing this out there
1. Do you think ureamia got her in the end?
(gradual decline over a few months and then suddenish death and my interpretation of Boris was that she was speaking nonsense towards the end – he said she was speaking about statesmen from the 50s which I think means she confused him with Churchill)
2. Would Charles George have dialysed her?
Boerwar @ #864 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 9:33 am
‘Sellout’ is a meaningless term, without nuance or shading. Typical BW, but useless as the basis of any worthwhile discussion. The net result, on here, will be a bunch of silly shouting, with no discernible progress towards anywhere at all.
Not even fascist. Timothy Snyder gives some interesting talks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHDdzJXM4oY&ab_channel=AmericanAcademyinBerlin
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 9:43 am
“ It’s hard to see Biden’s comment as anything but short sighted and aimed at a domestic audience.
It’s a comment worthy of Morrison.”
___
Biden has form. Here he was 40 years ago this year invoking NATO as a Casus Belli to go all in with Britain over the Falklands:
https://youtu.be/3C9hxsRO7pI
”
Atleast there is some sort long-winded principle involved in Biden support of Britain regarding Falklands although that is a spacious argument by Biden. It is a spacious argument because what he said is that if a country is NATO partner they will fight with them anywhere in the world although NATO is specifically designed for Europe to deter Soviet Union aggression.
However, on what basis would he support his argument in defending Taiwan when it is not a NATO partner and when US official policy regarding Taiwan is 1 China policy.
We have to remember though that he was Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations committee when Iraq 2.0 war was approved with his full support.
Oakeshott country at 10:08 am
You could hardly blame ERII for preferring to talk of PMs of the 50s than PMs of the Noughties and 20s., Blah,Dave,BoJo, Liz, what a line up.
The Sudetens are always left out of appeasement discussions.
The World War One settlement was based on self-determination for central European nations UNLESS you spoke German.
So the Sudetens were subjugated by the Czechs for 20 years and by 1938 a state of civil war (undoubtably enabled by the Nazis) existed. The return of the Sudetenland to German control reversed one of the wrongs of Versailles and was going to occur no matter what Chamberlain did.
In Chamberlain’s words; How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas masks here because of a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing. It seems still more impossible that a quarrel which has already been settled in principle should be the subject of war.
However, the real issue is that Chamberlain trusted Hitler and did nothing when the rump of Czechia was invaded.
”
porotisays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 10:04 am
Ven at 9:23 am
Poroti The saving grace about Chicken Hawks is that they spawned or atleast got their say after Soviet Union collapsed. If they had their say like Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz Bill Kristol, we would have had WW3 during Cuban missile crisis
Damned right there. Thank goodness some of the Bludgers ‘warriors’ weren’t in there , it would have been WWIII in about 10 seconds flat. Re the ‘Chicken Hawks’ . It was quite amazing to see just how many of the tough guy war fans of Dubya’s crew managed to be ‘unavailable’ when they came up for the draft. I can’t imagine how galling it must have been for John Kerry, who actually fought and was wounded there, to have been ‘Swift boated’ by that bunch of draft dodging Chicken Hawks.
”
poroti: It was quite amazing to see just how many of the tough guy war fans of Dubya’s crew managed to be ‘unavailable’ when they came up for the draft.
Me: And that includes the Commander-in-chief himself.
Oakeshott country @ #880 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 10:08 am
1. Possibly renal failure, but I doubt that it was uraemia as that usually takes a couple of weeks – and the symptom management is pretty obvious, so it would leak.
2. Yes – though even he probably would have waited until she couldn’t say no.
”
Oakeshott countrysays:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at 10:18 am
The Sudetens are always left out of appeasement discussions.
The World War One settlement was based on self-determination for central European nations UNLESS you spoke German.
So the Sudetens were subjugated by the Czechs for 20 years and by 1938 a state of civil war (undoubtably enabled by the Nazis) existed. The return of the Sudetenland to German control reversed one of the wrongs of Versailles and was going to occur no matter what Chamberlain did.
In Chamberlain’s words; How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas masks here because of a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing. It seems still more impossible that a quarrel which has already been settled in principle should be the subject of war.
However, the real issue is that Chamberlain trusted Hitler and did nothing when the rump of Czechia was invaded.
”
Another thing about Britain involvement in WW2 and supporting other countries in their war effort against Germany is based on the fact that it was an Empire. That it could mobilise army of colonised countries who would fight on behalf of Britain.
For example, Britain mobilised 2.4 million British Indian Army in WW2.
Not only that armies from other Colonies like Australia, NZ, Canada, Hong Kong etc were pressed into action.
If it was just UK army that fought WW2, I guess the result would have been different.
rhwombat @ #888 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 10:26 am
You raise a disquieting thought. An insane monarch is still a monarch. I’m NOT saying QEII was insane, but you’re speculating loss of mind, and I’m extrapolating. And who is Charles George, with his ultimate veto?
Boerwar
How do you see things going re the boers of Netherlands ? The Netherlands is the second largest exporter of foods in the world. The proposed new regulations would seem to put a rather large monkey wrench into that and the livelihoods of those who produce it.
Shellbell @ #851 Tuesday, September 20th, 2022 – 9:05 am
Ah, yes, too right. It’s been covid cancelled, so 2023 should be big. The massed bands morning march down the main street is fantastic. Meet you at the McKellar stall, or the Wallace, or the Stirlings; watch the big boys chucking telegraph poles at each other, and lifting boulders the size of small meteorites. They make them big in the Highlands.
“ However, the real issue is that Chamberlain trusted Hitler and did nothing when the rump of Czechia was invaded.”
In fact, he was doing plenty: he was driving the British rearmament program 24/7. War would come of course: he knew that, but Britain needed time. Non intervention in Czechoslovakia in 1938/9 gave Britain that time. The RAF facing the Luftwaffe over the Kent with a handful of Hurricanes – and even less spitfires – without any the things in place that WERE in place only 12 months later, is the stuff of nightmares.
I expect that the situation in Central Europe looked very different to those alive in the late 1930s who had to deal with it without the benefit of hindsight. Would Hitler have backed down had a firm stand been taken by the allies regarding the Sudeten crisis in 1938? Or would World War broken out a year earlier? If so, how would have gone? Better than what we know actually happened? No one can know.
“Surely your battalion of crack wombat shock troops are ready to deploy behind you Generalissimo Boerwar …”
I Need You To See This Australian Game About A Combat Wombat
https://www.kotaku.com.au/2022/09/i-need-you-to-see-this-australian-game-about-a-combat-wombat/
Something else to keep in mind when mind reading the thoughts of leaders in the 30s. Think of how fresh in the memory the horror that was WWI would have been. How keen would you have been to race off for a re run? A whole generation had been sacrificed, empires destroyed and at the end of it all what was achieved ?
“ watch the big boys chucking telegraph poles at each other, and lifting boulders the size of small meteorites. They make them big in the Highlands.”
Speaking of being made big, did anyone notice the 6 Royal Navy Ratings marching immediately in front of the gun carriage carrying the Queen’s Coffin last night? A clear head higher than all the surrounding Ratings and built like the proverbial shithouse.
‘ Sellout’ definition is available in a dictionary. The problem is not meaning. The problem is that those doing the selling out don’t like calling a spade a spade.
“ How keen would you have been to race off for a re run? A whole generation had been sacrificed and at the end of it all what was achieved ?”
Both the British and French PM’s were cheered upon their return from Munich. Those crowds were not astroturfed either. The peoples of the only two countries to ever declare war on Nazi Germany were not prepared to countenance war in 1938.