Essential Research and Morning Consult leadership ratings and more (open thread)

No signs of Anthony Albanese’s stock of goodwill depleting, plus further poll results on Morrison’s ministries and a federal integrity commission.

Essential Research continues its fortnightly polling series minus voting intention or numbers for Peter Dutton when it conducts its monthly leadership ratings, as it has done in the current poll. These record Anthony Albanese returning to his post-election peak on approval at 59%, up four, with disapproval down three to 25%. A monthly question on whether Australia is headed in the right direction is likewise back to where it was in the post-election result with a five point gain to 48%, with a two-point drop in wrong direction to 29%.

Further questions cover the Scott Morrison ministries saga, which find 51% believe the former Prime Minister should resign from parliament compared with 25% who disagree; 59% agree that the reputation of his government has been diminished, with 19% disagreeing; and 59% believe he should appear at the inquiry into the matter, with 18% disagreeing. Support for a federal integrity commission is at 76%, down two from October last year, with opposition up four to 15%. Further questions cover the powers such an institution should have, trust in health authorities, police, the justice system and federal parliament and the salience of state politics issues, and can be found in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1070.

Further:

• The tracking poll of international leaders’ personal ratings conducted by US firm Morning Consult continues to record no significant change for Anthony Albanese, who ended August on 58% approval and 28% disapproval, both up one on the end of July. The numbers from this series combine results of polling conducted over seven days from a sample of around 1000.

• In a report on kickboxer-turned-misogynist internet celebrity Andrew Tate, Benjamin Clark of Crikey highlights data from the Australian Cooperative Election Study showing that while younger women are more likely than older women to agree that more needs to be done to achieve gender equality (76.5% among those aged 18 to 34 compared with 58.4% among those 65 and over), the opposite is true of men (30.1% among the youngest cohort rising to 40.4% among the oldest). The 18-to-34 cohort was also the only one in which a significant gender distinction was observed on what I take to be the two-party preferred vote, with 67.5% of young women favouring Labor compared with 60.3% for men. Also featured is Gallup data from the United States showing young women have become markedly more likely to identify as liberal over the past decade (from 30% to nearly 45%) whereas the rate for men has remained steady at around 25%.

• An international survey by US concern Pew Research on “global threats and international co-operation” found Australia with the second biggest gap out of 14 countries between those on the political left and right with respect to the threat posed by climate change, respectively identified as a major threat by 91% and 47%. Far ahead of the rest in this respect was the United States, where only 22% of those on the right rated climate change a major threat compared with 85% on the left.

• The final score from the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay was 1844 (52.6%) for Labor candidate Brent Potter and 1662 (47.4%) for Country Liberals candidate Ben Hosking, a swing against Labor of 7.0%. Next cabs off the by-election rank are the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on Saturday, which is being contested by both Labor and Liberal, and the Western Australian seat of North West Central next week, to be contested by the Nationals and the Liberals with Labor sitting it out.

• I’ll be conducting an online seminar as part of the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy’s Curtin Corner series from 6pm on Friday eastern standard time, specifically exploring the issue of where all the major party voters are going/have gone. You can register for live participation here, and a video will be posted after the event.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “Essential Research and Morning Consult leadership ratings and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 35 of 38
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  1. A_E do you not find it strange that the Libs are now the Rugga League Party?
    (Although I think this is artificial- the Libs really are Rah Rahs and just put on a show)

  2. Shorten is in the 3rd row, fcs! Talk about trying to gin something up out of nothing! I note Rex Douglas and nath were the ones onto it like flies onto a piece of meat. So freaking predictable.

  3. Sohar says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 9:13 am
    “I don’t watch much TV, apart from some Swans games, AFL finals and Micalef, “

    Like you, we only watch 2 mins of the weather nightly, some nrl games and Micalef so we’re not subjected to the constant streams of tv consciousness, such as they are. I can carefully choose every topic I wish to read about and I’m impacted less therefore by clipped videos or rivers of unnecessary adjectives. I also now cross check information far more often in an attempt to gain greater accuracy and content.

    Although I’m sure I am delayed in understanding some trends, the advantages to me of my methodology considerably outweigh the disadvantages and are critical at times like this whereby I can mostly avoid all extraneous Royal issues.

  4. Cronus,
    I envy you being so close to the action that you can see Ukraine, just over there. Is the reporting of the war any different to Australia? I’m interested because Macron is trying to walk both sides of the street and I was wondering if that was reflected in the media coverage? 🙂

  5. Rex Douglas @ #1704 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 5:11 pm

    nath @ #1699 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 5:06 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:04 pm

    Australia has proclaimed King Charles III as the new head of state.

    I see Shorten positioned himself directly behind Albanese…
    _________
    That’s ominous.

    He’s clearly sending a message that he’s not done with yet …!

    Bullshit shit stirring.

    The only clear thing is the anti federal Labor government motive behind your comments.

  6. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:10 pm
    Shorten is in the 3rd row, fcs! talkla bout trying to gin something up out of nothing. I note Rex Douglas and nath were the ones onto it like flies onto a piece of meat. So freaking predictable.
    中华人民共和国
    Ahem that’s flies to shit Cat.

    I think Nath is jealous because Pacific Islanders can tackle. Anyway Upnorth we have had Pacific Islanders settle locally for generations. Brought to the North as “Kanaka” Cane Cutters. Some of me best mates.

    Tough at football (real football) and some of the nicest people you would meet. They are now as Aussie as Nath.

    Go the Cowboys!

  7. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:18 pm

    Dreyfus and Butler leaving a gap in the middle could also be a message that they’re in on a Shorten coup …?
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Talyormade

  8. As sensibly, Queensland has had no Upper House since 1922, the Proclamation of Queenslands’ New Monarch occurred in the “disused” Red Chamber. Fitting.

    “Queensland’s Governor Jeannette Young has stood on the steps at Government House and proclaimed King Charles III the state’s new monarch, in a protocol not undertaken since Lieutenant General Sir John Lavarack in 1952.

    Thousands of Queenslanders poured in to watch the proclamation as it happened, a ceremony that had not been opened to the public at the Paddington mansion 70 years ago.

    “And with hearty and humble affection, we promise him faith and obedience. May King Charles III have long and happy years to reign over us,” Dr Young said.

    “God Save the King.”

    The proclamation was repeated at Queensland parliament, harking back to similar duplication in 1952 to get the message out to the masses, though the occasion was held in the disused Red Chamber rather than on the balcony.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-proclaims-king-charles-iii-new-monarch-as-thousands-mourn-loss-of-queen-elizabeth/news-story/9897d294272d8b88c7546e9d5ce14771?amp

  9. Asha says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:36 pm

    It just started raining here. Obviously that means Shorten is about to make his move.
    中华人民共和国
    And the Grilled Field Rat vendor has sold out and gone home early. Something is in the offing.

  10. Asha says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:36 pm

    It just started raining here. Obviously that means Shorten is about to make his move.
    _______________
    Not yet. But you are right to point out that he will use the weather to his advantage when the time comes.

  11. This may assuage you, C@t

    Roundtable: Amid Tributes to Queen Elizabeth, Deadly Legacy of British Colonialism Cannot Be Ignored: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UD8eMpmlkhI&ab_channel=DemocracyNow%21

    And before you get stuck into me, again, C@t, you really need to chill. You’re entitled to your opinion, and so is everyone else.

    I used to take your posts as fact. To the point that I told one of my kids that GG Hurley was a Pentacostalist; because I believed you. Which proved to be false. I have had to tell him that I was wrong.

    And lately, you keep apologising for getting things wrong. That’s good in its own way, but, seriously, instead of posting off the cuff, how about you get things straight before posting.

  12. nath says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:40 pm

    Asha says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:36 pm

    It just started raining here. Obviously that means Shorten is about to make his move.
    _______________
    Not yet. But you are right to point out that he will use the weather to his advantage when the time comes.
    中华人民共和国
    LOL Rex

  13. Are there really any genuine toffs in Sydney ..?

    They’re all just wealthy crooks, aren’t they …?

    Not like the genuine upperclass we have in our leafy inner suburbs in Melbourne.

  14. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    Are there really any genuine toffs in Sydney ..?

    They’re all just wealthy crooks, aren’t they …?

    Not like the genuine upperclass we have in our leafy inner suburbs in Melbourne.
    中华人民共和国
    Being a North Queenslander, I probably am not in a position to judge!

  15. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 4:07 pm
    I have been gardening and shopping for plants this afternoon in the beautiful, nay perfect, Spring weather.
    _____________________
    Know anything about lemon trees?
    Plant now or should I wait a few weeks ?

  16. If for whatever reason the Federal Labor Party collectively loses its goddamn mind in the next few years and decides to roll Albanese, they aren’t going to replace him with Bill Shorten. There’s too many other ambitious and credible leadership options available that don’t have his baggage.

    Shorten is yesterday’s news, and unless he’s totally lacking in anything resembling self-awareness, he must surely realise that.

  17. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:50 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 4:07 pm
    I have been gardening and shopping for plants this afternoon in the beautiful, nay perfect, Spring weather.
    _____________________
    Know anything about lemon trees?
    Plant now or should I wait a few weeks ?
    中华人民共和国
    As kids we boys were told to do our morning pee on the lemon tree roots. Apparently tops for the fruit.

  18. kezza2 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:54 pm

    Upnorth @ #1716 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 5:45 pm

    @ kezza2 – me thinks C@t tis busy. The Rabbithos are up over the Eastern toffs 24-14. 18 minutes to go.

    I don’t even know what that means. Never understood rugby/rugger whatever. But, thanks for the heads up: I should give C@t some leeway?
    中华人民共和国
    Albos’ team is winning by 10 cobber – 9 minutes left!

  19. Upnorth @ #1724 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 5:58 pm

    kezza2 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:54 pm

    Upnorth @ #1716 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 5:45 pm

    @ kezza2 – me thinks C@t tis busy. The Rabbithos are up over the Eastern toffs 24-14. 18 minutes to go.

    I don’t even know what that means. Never understood rugby/rugger whatever. But, thanks for the heads up: I should give C@t some leeway?
    中华人民共和国
    Albos’ team is winning by 10 cobber – 9 minutes left!

    Oh, I thought Rabbitohs belonged to Russell Crowe?

  20. kezza2 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:02 pm

    Upnorth @ #1724 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 5:58 pm

    kezza2 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 5:54 pm

    Upnorth @ #1716 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 5:45 pm

    @ kezza2 – me thinks C@t tis busy. The Rabbithos are up over the Eastern toffs 24-14. 18 minutes to go.

    I don’t even know what that means. Never understood rugby/rugger whatever. But, thanks for the heads up: I should give C@t some leeway?
    中华人民共和国
    Albos’ team is winning by 10 cobber – 9 minutes left!

    Oh, I thought Rabbitohs belonged to Russell Crowe?
    中华人民共和国
    Same Same – 30 -14 – 4 minutes left. Looks like the Albo/Crowe Rabbithos will beat the Eastern Sydney “pretend” Toffs.

  21. Sir Henry Parkes at 2.17

    An interesting take on how the Ukraine war has stopped political progress in Russia, from a dissenting Russian academic, living in semi-exile, Ekaterina Schulmann. She told the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, she believes one motive for launching the war was the desire by Vladimir Putin and his circle, to halt this progress and prevent their eventual replacement by a younger, more liberal elite.
    I don’t know if Noam Chomsky, John Pilger and Oliver Stone know of Ekaterina Schulmann, but again, it makes me wonder why people of such impeccable progressive credentials have lined up with Putin and his war.
    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/2022-09-09/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/russia-was-making-strides-toward-progressive-values-then-the-war-broke-out/00000183-23b1-d2c9-a387-e7b9e9980000
    ____________

    I’d take Chomsky, Pilger and Stone with a grain of salt. They may not be ‘progressive’ so much as ‘anti-Western’. Lining up with Putin is both detestable and indefensible.

    Unless, that is, the West, via its puppet Zelensky, tricked Russia into engaging in a ‘special military operation’ (definitely NOT invasion) solely to prevent the possibility of democratic progress in Russia.

    Bad, mean, naughty and horrible West!

  22. ”I don’t think it’s racist to point out that Pacific Islanders dominate Rugby League. Good luck to them.”

    It might make sense to have three teams in State of Origin, with “The Pacific” being the third “State”. Maybe Melbourne Storm could be a fourth, so a four team knockout. A money-making opportunity for someone, say a media mogul.

  23. I’d take Chomsky, Pilger and Stone with a grain of salt. They may not be ‘progressive’ so much as ‘anti-Western’. Lining up with Putin is both detestable and indefensible.

    Chomsky has lined up with Putin?
    I have heard him denounce Putins war as a clearly criminal act of aggression.

  24. kezza2 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:15 pm

    Upnorth @ #1730 Sunday, September 11th, 2022 – 6:14 pm

    kezza2 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:11 pm

    It’s now 6 minutes later. Who won?
    中华人民共和国
    Russell Crowe!

    The sun keeps on shining on Albo.
    中华人民共和国
    Shhhh – don’t tell Nath and Rex – they want a Victorian at the top

  25. Rex at 5.04

    Australia has proclaimed King Charles III as the new head of state.

    I see Shorten positioned himself directly behind Albanese…
    ____________

    Did you include the photo so we could play “spot the dagger”?

  26. nath says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:18 pm

    Upnorth. keep your head down you owe me beer.
    中华人民共和国
    Two cobber two. Crownies at that!

  27. Upnorth

    You posted this: 30 -14 – 4 minutes left. Because I don’t know the scoring possibilities of this game, did you really think that Rabbitoh’s were going to lose?

    Just curious.

    In the AFL, with four minutes to go, and one team is up by 16 points, it’s still anyone’s game. Hell, it can still be won on, or after, the siren.

    That’s why AFL is the best.

  28. SK,

    Shopping!!!! 😆 😆

    There’s your penitence for having daughters.

    Start in HCMC plenty of shopping around District 1 and Ben Thanh market area.
    One place I love is XQ Sai Gon on Le Loi St, an embroidery studio. Portraits and landscapes done by embroidery. The effect and detail is amazing.
    In HCMC you can just wander around District 1, plenty of colonial buildings and there are some nice parks and museums where you can escape the sun. The War Remnants Museum is a sobering but worthwhile experience and would be my suggestion if you only did one museum.

    Near HCMC city.
    You can do day trips to the Cu Chi tunnels.
    There are overnight trips down to the delta and the floating markets. Can Tho is the most popular and touristy, but there are other markets near smaller towns which would provide a much more relaxed and authentic experience, also for mine, only 2 days is a travesty to spend in such a gorgeous area. Check out towns like Vinh Long, it’s smaller and more relaxed, I think there may be a market near by, also there’s accommodation across the river near ferry crossing that provides a nice getaway.
    If you want to head to the beach you can catch a river ferry from HCMC to Vung Tau. Go midweek as it gets crowded and more expensive on weekends.
    Other beaches are Mui Ne, Nha Trang and the coast near Hoi An they’re all nice in different ways.

    Leaving HCMC and heading north you have Dalat in the Central Highlands, it’s a nice place, but quite large, so you need transport to explore the surrounding countryside which is well worthwhile.

    After that you have Nha Trang then Hoi An. Hoi An’s a world heritage town with lots of shops for the girls. My favourite thing here was grabbing a bike and riding around the narrow back roads through the surrounding paddy fields. The countryside is dead flat, so it’s an easy and comfortable ride.

    After that you have Hue, the old imperial capital of Vietnam. The Imperial City is quite interesting. A mixture of restored buildings and ruins.

    Another place I loved was Ninh Binh, it’s about two hours south of Hanoi. The surrounding area consists of numerous limestone karsts with rivers winding their way around them. I found the area captivating and spent days exploring on a motorbike.

    I can’t tell you much about Hanoi as I got a mild dose of food poisoning soon after arriving. The area around the lake is very pleasant and the girls will like the shops. My main memory of Hanoi was seeing my cousin’s kid play AFL for Brisbane for the first time as my hotel had the Australia Network on the TV. It made being sick an enjoyable experience.

    From Hanoi you can organise Halong Bay cruises. If you take one choose an overnight one, as the sunset and tranquility of the evening and night are special. Another option is to stay on Cat Ba Island for a few nights before returning. I don’t know anyone who’s done it, but it sounded like a nice option.

    North from Hanoi you move into the northern highland area bordering China. The main attractions here are the minority villages and Sapa. Sapa is a small town on the flanks of Mt Phan Xipan, Vietnam’s highest mountain. Don’t go here early in the year as it gets bloody cold. I remember one year when all the diesel engines wouldn’t work because the diesel was freezing at night and they didn’t have the antifreeze to add to it. Apart from that it’s a great place. Lots of short and long walks through the stunning countryside and it had a nice relzxed feel.

    Timing wise January and February are probably not the best time if you want to travel in the north where even costal temperatures average in the mid teens, also February is the end of the wet season in the south. The wet season isn’t a major drama as it just means you jump into the nearest cafe and drink coffee until it stops, which is normally a half hour or so. I’d suggest February- March as the best time as you’d be unlikely to get the extended heat of the dry season.

    Final tips. If anyone wears glasses, Vietnam has the cheapest prescription glasses anywhere I know of. My last pair fully UV tinted bifocal lenses and frames for less than $100. Also dentist are very cheap and fully tailored suits are great to. I’ve heard of people basically pay for their holiday by incorporating these into their trip due to the price difference.

    Anyway that’s all for now, any questions fire away.

  29. kezza2 says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:23 pm

    Upnorth

    You posted this: 30 -14 – 4 minutes left. Because I don’t know the scoring possibilities of this game, did you really think that Rabbitoh’s were going to lose?

    Just curious.

    In the AFL, with four minutes to go, and one team is up by 16 points, it’s still anyone’s game. Hell, it can still be won on, or after, the siren.

    That’s why AFL is the best.
    中华人民共和国
    A couple of quick trys and a penalty and Easts could have been back in the game. Understand it was a “spiteful” affair – bit like PB during a Federal Election campaign. Lots of sin and head binning.

    As for AFL I went to watch a match once. The bastards couldn’t tackle for love or money. Me and me mate procured a bottle of Bundy and downed it to help numb the boredom. It’s probably a sport better watched on TV.

  30. More likely that a Pacifica team in SOO is a PNG team in NRL.
    Not only is it ALP policy but the two governments have discussed it.

    The NRL is keen provided the Australian Government puts up the cash for what would be a bottomless pit.

  31. Not good news for boomers, but better for millennials.

    “For the first time in over a decade, residential real estate across the developed world appears vulnerable to falling prices. That’s what happens when central banks flip into interest rate hiking mode after an unprecedented run-up in home prices.

    But unlike the last time around—the 2008 housing bust—the U.S. won’t be at the epicenter of this housing pullback. At least that’s according to Goldman Sachs.

    This month, researchers at Goldman Sachs released “The housing downturn: A bigger deal down under and up north.” Through the end of 2023, the paper predicts a crash-like drop in home prices in New Zealand (–21%), Australia (–18%), and Canada (–13%). For comparison, the U.S. housing bubble saw home prices drop 27% between the 2006 peak and the 2012 bottom.”

  32. I’m sorry I have disappointed you, kezza2. I have to admit I fooled myself about David Hurley. I could have sworn I read somewhere that Hurley and Morrison were of similar religion. Just goes to show you should always double check. Especially if people are going to take it as gospel. I tend to forget about that when I say things.
    Don’t worry too much about other things I say wrt QE2 either. Being of Irish heritage, if a long way back, I am not the biggest fan of the British monarchy. I don’t hold your affection for them against you though, if that’s what you meant.

    I still think the overkill has been phenomenal, even if it’s the case for many other things as well.

  33. Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:27 pm

    Whacko Barney, thank you so much. I will digest and fire some Qs at you if I have any.
    中华人民共和国
    Jan if you get to Bangkok on your travels it’s probably best to avoid me. Though Mrs Upnorth is Ace with Tucker, Shopping and Culture.

  34. Simon Katichsays:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:16 pm

    I’d take Chomsky, Pilger and Stone with a grain of salt. They may not be ‘progressive’ so much as ‘anti-Western’. Lining up with Putin is both detestable and indefensible.

    Chomsky has lined up with Putin?
    I have heard him denounce Putins war as a clearly criminal act of aggression.

    Chomsky’s crime is he asks often uncomfortable questions, instead of conforming to the absolute with us or against us binary.

  35. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 6:31 pm

    More likely that a Pacifica team in SOO is a PNG team in NRL.
    Not only is it ALP policy but the two governments have discussed it.

    The NRL is keen provided the Australian Government puts up the cash for what would be a bottomless pit.
    中华人民共和国
    Well Papua was “annexed” by Queensland in 1893. The only “colony” to have its own “colony” – so PNG players would feed into Queensland in the State of Origin.

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