The Age/Herald today brings its first Resolve Strategic poll federal poll since the election, which I count as the third set of fully published federal poll results since the election, together with one Newspoll and one Roy Morgan (so not counting various sketchily reported Roy Morgan results over the last few weeks). This is by some distance Labor’s best result of the three, crediting them with 42% of the primary vote (compared with 32.6% at the election, 37% from Newspoll and 36% from Morgan), the Coalition with 28% (35.7% at the election, 33% from Newspoll, 37% from Roy Morgan), the Greens with 12% (12.3% at the election), One Nation with 5% (5.0%), the United Australia Party with 2% (4.1%), independents with 8% (5.3%) and others with 3%.
Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but my calculation based on flows from the recent election, matched by that of Kevin Bonham, has Labor with a lead of 61.3-38.7, compared with 52.1-47.9 at the election, 56-44 from Newspoll and 53-47 from Roy Morgan (which is also about where Morgan’s sketchily reported recent polls have had it). As with its pre-election polling, Resolve provides breakdowns for the three largest states, which by my calculation produce Labor two-party leads of 60.1-39.9 in New South Wales (51.4-48.6 at the election), 64.2-35.8 in Victoria (54.8-45.2) and 59.1-40.9 in Queensland (reversing a 54.0-46.0 advantage at the election).
Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 61% (combining responses of very good and good), the same as his result from Newspoll, and a disapproval rating of 22% (very poor plus poor), compared with Newspoll’s 26%. Peter Dutton respectively comes in at 30% and 37%, whereas Newspoll had it at 37% and 41%, consistent with its tendency to produce lower uncommitted ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 2011.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll asked voters to rank both leaders on a ten-point scale, which found 43% scoring Anthony Albanese between seven and ten, 23% rating him between zero and three and the rest rating him between four and six. Peter Dutton was ranked positively by 26%, negatively by 34% and neutral by the rest. The poll also found 80% believed governments should take an active role in the economy compared with only 20% who believed who believed it should leave things to the market, reflected in further findings of 70% support for government-imposed limits on prices for essential services such as energy, with only 7% opposed, and 61% in favour of taxes on companies that make additional profits due to rising inflation, with unopposed specified. It also found 47% in favour of higher skilled migration, with 18% opposed. The poll had a sample of 1065 and was, I assume, conducted from Wednesday to Sunday – the full report should be published on the pollster’s website later today. UPDATE: Full results here.
We have also had from Ipsos a global poll on attitudes to abortion, which finds 45% of Australians believe abortion should be legal in all cases and 25% legal in most, compared with 6% for illegal in all cases and 9% for illegal in most. The respect combined results for the 27 countries surveyed were 30% and 29%, and 10% and 16% – Australians were roughly as Liberal as those in most European countries except Sweden and France, and more so than Americans, Latin Americans and Asians.
Hi, I’m new here.
Can one of you nice people please translate two-party preferred results of Labor leading the poll result by 61.3-38.7 to the approximate number of HoR seats if repeated at an election?
Thanks!
This cartoon suggests something aboutour new federal government to me. Our Treasurer and PM have fronted the Australian people and said, you can’t have a wage increase that matches inflation because then you have a wage-price spiral and you don’t end up achieving Real Wage Increases. So, if this latest opinion poll is any guide, the Australian people have absorbed that message and gone, yeah, okay.
S777
Ministers have a simple rule of thumb: it is way easier to lose votes than it is to gain them.
The New York Times reports former US President Trump initially kept over 300 classified documents at his residence.
I’m optimistic that Albanese’s popularity won’t have the same trajectory as Rudd’s PMship. For a start, there’s the senate. After the 2007 election, the LNP + Family First could block anything and largely did. This time around the ALP has multiple progressive paths through the senate. Admittedly all senate paths go through the greens but with so many other progressive voices even they aren’t stupid enough* to be the only ones to side with the LNP to block reform. We’ve already seen that with CO2 targets.
* I may be wrong
”
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 8:16 am
Well, there’s a surprise.
People want to pay less tax.
People want more and better free government services.
People want to pay less for essential services like electricity.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/23/guardian-essential-poll-70-of-people-want-price-caps-on-essential-services-such-as-energy
”
Magic wand!
@work to rule – you missed the main difference between now and 2007. Labor has learnt lessons from their mistakes last time.
See their willingness to offer massive concessions to the Greens and Teals, to pass an unimportant piece of legislation on emissions through the lower House that they already have a majority in.
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 9:52 am:
Wow! PvO saying that Hurley was ‘acting like nothing more than a trained Baboon’, is, um, rather controversial
______________________
That’s extraordinarily controversial, as there’s currently no evidence that Hurley has ever been trained.
“teals to take seats from the lib/nats”
The teals, in part, are essentially libs, so this makes a lot of sense.
“greens and teals to take seats from the lib/nats”
for the last 10 years the greens needed to target the marginal mortgage belt with a package that would appeal to that demographic, but they haven’t and they won’t, they are the party of stopping things and the elite gentry who can buy / build a fully self sustainable hobby farm, complete with nanny and servants, not a genuine progressive party interested in the suburbs.
Paul The Avenger says:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 11:08 am
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 9:52 am:
Wow! PvO saying that Hurley was ‘acting like nothing more than a trained Baboon’, is, um, rather controversial
______________________
That’s extraordinarily controversial, as there’s currently no evidence that Hurley has ever been trained.
中华人民共和国
Baboons’ are rather smart. They have been observed using tools.
@Wewantpaul – the Greens are the party of people too poor to buy a house in the suburbs. Greens voters are crammed in shoebox apartments close to their work or study, not a hobby farm. Your insult is at least 20 years out of date.
Voice Endeavour @ #106 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 11:08 am
I did say “for a start”, I’d agree that Albanese’s ability to lead, negotiate, think strategically, and pick battles is a secret weapon that’s been underestimated.
3 literary references for an AFL article. Fun.
_____
I had 4 if you count the Collingwood reference to Achilles/Homer
So that would be Homer the ancient poet, not Homer Simpson.
Never realised that AFL was such a highbrow enterprise…
Upnorth @ Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 11:11 am:
Baboons’ are rather smart. They have been observed using tools.
________________________
They can probably hold hoses too.
Albanese has proven that he is very “street smart”. I think history looking back will show just how well he outplayed Morrison. In fact Albanese has and is making mince meat of Morrison. He’s been in Parliament since ’96 and cut his teeth in inner Sydney Labor politics of the 80s and 90s. He knows how politics works back to front and knows how to win. Albo is highly unlikely to make the mistakes Rudd did. Whatever it takes!
” for the last 10 years the greens needed to target the marginal mortgage belt with a package that would appeal to that demographic, but they haven’t and they won’t…”
To do so, they would need to compromise on their purity, play politics, become pragmatic. The Greens are a niche product, their market mainly those who care about stuff other than money.
That’s a rather extraordinary statement from Peter Van Onselen (can’t find the reference). Will his employer publish 167 articles over the next week or so condemning him?
”
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 8:44 am
Whether you are an “appeaser” or a “doomer”, this is an excellent and well balanced article on climate breakdown …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/22/climate-emergency-doomer-appeaser-precautionary-principle
While it would be nice to think that we are overplaying the threat of climate breakdown, following an appeaser line would be courting disaster. This is particularly the case as there seems to be a growing propensity to label pretty much anything outside the current consensus as doomist. But consensus doesn’t equate to being right. In fact, research has revealed that climate scientists as a tribe (of which I count myself a member), and IPCC reports underplay the speed and intensity with which climate breakdown is happening.
The reality is that our understanding of potential tipping points and feedback effects remains too poorly constrained for us to be confident of how severe climate breakdown will end up proving to be. Furthermore, minimising the potential impact of climate breakdown is more likely to lead to increased reticence in relation to slashing emissions than any potential exaggeration of the likely endgame.
A middle of the road route would be to no one’s advantage – so, as for most situations wherein the risk is hard to quantify, there is only one sensible way forward: to hope for the best, while preparing for the worst.
There is no middle road. Hope for the best while preparing for the worst.
”
P1
It appears you and I fall into the category of ‘doomists’.
In my case it is because “The reality is that our understanding of potential tipping points and feedback effects remains too poorly constrained for us to be confident of how severe climate breakdown will end up proving to be. Furthermore, minimising the potential impact of climate breakdown is more likely to lead to increased reticence in relation to slashing emissions than any potential exaggeration of the likely endgame.”
I have a gut feeling that by 2070s there is a good chance that the humanity will be living below the surface of the earth, or in the stratosphere like Jetsons or on Water ways like Kevin Costner ‘Water World ‘.
Hope I am wrong. But We won’t there to witness that anyway.
And the OH NO song plays.
https://twitter.com/RonniSalt/status/1561884914886545413
Breaking news
The Ombudsman has called for a review of hundreds of Prime Minister & Cabinet appointments – including all those by Scott Morrison – over concerns key officials have been illegally appointed to multiple jobs.
Exclusive to @Anthony_Klan
This could be really good. Good to see so many rent seeking lnp stooges out on their arses
I saw the 1st ad for the Vic Libs for the election last night. Herald Sun does not seem to have covered this as yet.
From the Guardian – the theme continues;
Victorian coalition pledges region cancer centre using money from Suburban Rail Loop
A new cancer centre and health school would be erected in regional Victoria under another health-related election pledge by the state opposition, AAP reports.
The Victorian Liberals and Nationals have vowed to allocate $100m to develop the Integrated Cancer Centre and Clinical Health School at Goulburn Valley (GV) Health in Shepparton if the coalition wins the November 26 election.
The money for the facility would come from shelving construction of the first part of the Victorian Labor government’s Suburban Rail Loop from Cheltenham to Box Hill, the opposition said.
It would allow GV Health to expand its current cancer and oncology services and make the existing site up to four times larger, ensuring improved access for cancer patients across the region.
The school would support more than 300 nursing and allied health enrolments each year under a proposed partnership with La Trobe University, expanding the opposition’s previous commitments to build new teaching hospitals in Mildura, Wodonga and Warragul.
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy said in a statement today:
Training healthcare workers in regional Victoria, like we have committed to do in Mildura, Wodonga and Shepparton, will put more doctors, nurses and staff in the areas they’re needed most.
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 9:47 am
Ven,
Chris Minns didn’t cause the implosion of the NSW Coalition government. And what is ‘luck’ anyway?
Maybe this will resonate with you:
What is luck According to Gita?
The main goal of the individual is to obtain Mukti or Moksha. If a soul becomes free from the misery of taking rebirth, then it is considered a lucky soul. Lord Krishna has counseled Arjun in Bhagwat Gita about the necessity of salvation and he also showed the path for attaining salvation.
So, maybe Chris Minns is simply a man whose time has come?
”
Two things
1. True NSW Coalition are self-destructing themselves. Minns has nothing to do with that. That is why Minns is lucky because LOTO has to work very hard to gain government from opposition.
2. Regarding Mukti or Moksha is not a easy concept to understand for people especially if you are from Abrahamic religion.
Many Hindus don’t understand it properly.
Very encouraging polling figures, but Rudd had early stratospheric figures too (as many others had noted). So what really matters is the next election, not a poll three months in.
But there are some very big differences between 2007 and 2022.
1. Albanese is not Rudd. One can’t overstate this.
2. Rudd, like Whitlam, took power in good times, put in by an optimistic electorate expecting good times ahead. A year later, in each case, a global economic disaster struck. Rudd was much better prepared than Whitlam to deal with it, but both had their governments knocked sideways, and never quite recovered.
3. The impact of the change of leaders in 2010 is etched in the minds of every Labor parliamentarian, whatever view they took in 2010. There will be no repeat. Repeat. There will be no repeat. Albanese will lead Labor to the next election.
4. The Coalition is hollowed out, talent-wise and seat-wise. In 2007 they retained 65 seats. Now they have only 58. And, to gain government, they not only have to win seats from Labor, but have to win back heartland from independents. This is an extraordinary tall order – greater than, say, Palaszczuk’s win from Campbell Newman, where voters are deciding between alternative governments, not whether to keep the local member.
There are lots of other differences, but I think these will do for those with a ‘hive mind’ worrying about Labor going forward. And also for those concern trolls wetting themselves with excitement thinking about Labor crashing and burning like they did a decade ago.
TPOF says:
3. The impact of the change of leaders in 2010 is etched in the minds of every Labor parliamentarian, whatever view they took in 2010. There will be no repeat. Repeat. There will be no repeat.
___________________
lol. Except that they changed leaders in 2013. So there was a repeat. 🙂
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 43% (+2)
CON: 31% (-3)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 5% (+1)
REF: 3% (=)
Redfield & Wilton Strategies , On 21 August, Changes w/ 14 August.
Upnorth @ #108 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 11:11 am
I don’t think Hurley used Morrison, I thought it was the other way around. 😉
Albanese press conference 12:10
ItzaDream,
This is going to be fun.
And also for those concern trolls wetting themselves with excitement thinking about Labor crashing and burning like they did a decade ago.
They’ll keep giving it their best shot from now until the next election in the wan hope they hit the bullseye with something. 😐
south @ #126 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 12:02 pm
Albo having Morrison for lunch?
Paul The Avenger says:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 11:17 am
Upnorth @ Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 11:11 am:
Baboons’ are rather smart. They have been observed using tools.
________________________
They can probably hold hoses too.
中华人民共和国
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Albo should rightly be thrilled and Dutton deeply concerned about these numbers.
However, let’s not get cocky. We’re still very early in the term, with the new government enjoying a typical honeymoon period and the opposition recently thrown back into the shit by their former leader. Never underestimate how dramatically the political narrative can shift. Two years from now, the talking points may well be all about how Albanese squandered all his political capital and how Dutton has grown into the job and is now the very image of an alternate PM. (I sure hope that won’t be the case, but it’s far from unimaginable!)
Remember when everybody – even the most hardcore Labor supporters – regarded Annastacia Palaszczuk as a seat-warmer with no hope of leading her shattered party out of the wilderness? Now she’s one of the Queensland’s longest-serving premiers.
In any case, Dutton doesn’t need people to like him to win the next election. He just needs people to dislike the other side more.
I don’t know about that. It seems like much of his colleagues genuinely support him and think he’s the best man for the job. That might seem insane to people like us, but we are a bit biased.
That said… if Dutton hasn’t regained considerable ground by this time next year – at the very latest – it doesn’t matter how much support he has. The Liberals are in the business of winning election, and are notoriously unforgiving of leaders they don’t believe can deliver that goal.
Good question. Dutton is lucky that there aren’t any particularly obvious replacements right now. But they will inevitably emerge as the term wears on and his frontbench receives more media exposure.
I agree with the suggestion somebody made earlier about Karen Andrews and Andrew Hastie probably being the most likely contenders right now. I’d add Sussan Ley too, depending on how she performs in the deputy leadership. Simon Birmingham would be in with solid chance if he was in the house, but I can’t imagine there will be any South Australian seats available for him anytime soon. Time will tell whether Alex Hawke’s reputation within the party has been permenently tarnished by his preselection shenanigans or if it’s something that will blow over eventually – if it’s the latter, then I wouldn’t count him out either, though I don’t see it happening this term.
Legal advice has been released.
Solicitor General completely exonerates the GG of anything improper.
nathsays:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 12:07 pm
”
simm0888says:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 11:17 am
Albanese has proven that he is very “street smart”. I think history looking back will show just how well he outplayed Morrison. In fact Albanese has and is making mince meat of Morrison. He’s been in Parliament since ’96 and cut his teeth in inner Sydney Labor politics of the 80s and 90s. He knows how politics works back to front and knows how to win. Albo is highly unlikely to make the mistakes Rudd did. Whatever it takes!
”
simmo888
You know I agreed with you quite a few times. I agree with this post except one thing “Whatever it takes!”. I know I know people like P1, Rex and nath will say what about Stage 3 tax cuts. They will say they come under the category of Whatever it takes!”.
Well!
I am going to say one controversial thing about Albanese very early in his term of PMship.
He is the John Howard of progressive side. 🙂
Think about it and agree/disagree with that assessment.
I will provide my analysis later for that comment.
Albo on ABC now
Ven @ #117 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 11:31 am
Yup. I’d rather be a “doomist” than an “appeaser”. If the doomists are wrong we can still appease, but if the appeasers are wrong we are all doomed 🙂
Barney in Cherating says:
Yes, but he also says he would have been acting appropriately if he had refused Morrison’s requests.
_____
Where does it say that?
”
southsays:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 11:32 am
And the OH NO song plays.
……….
…….
”
South
There are only Labor Stooges and by inference no LNP Stooges, according to nath. 🙂
“While I consider that Mr Morrison’s appointment to administer DISER was valid, that is not to say that the absence of any notification of that appointment to the Parliament, the public, the other Ministers administering DISER or DISER itself was consistent with the principle of responsible government that is inherent in Ch II of the Constitution. In my opinion, it was not.”
The GG may be fine legally but nath ignores the severity of the situation by playing lawyer.
“The inclusion of superfluous words does not cast doubt on the legal efficacy of that appointment.”
The inefficacy of superfluous words is important.
Noticeable absence of a visible Union Jack in the way Labor arranges the flag.
Fabulous Poll Results.
Comparing the raw data with the May Election result, if replicated or partially replicated, in 2025 could leave to a catastrophic result for the LNP.
My amateur analysis, applying the national and 3 state 2PP could extend the ALP majority by twenty-seven more House of Representatives seats.
My predictions are: NSW – Fowler, Banks, Lindsey, Hughes, Hume & Page. Cowper & Bradfield could fall to Independent candidates.
Victoria: Deakin, Casey, Aston, Monash, Flinders & Latrobe. Nichols & Wannon vulnerable to Independents.
Queensland: Dickson, Longman, Bonner, Leichhardt, Flynn, Forde, Petrie, Bowman & Capricornia.
Others: Sturt (SA), Bass & Braddon (Tas), Moore, Canning & Forest (WA).
Some of these fall at the extreme end of the range.
I have excluded the three Brisbane seats: Ryan, Brisbane & Griffith as they are 3PP contests, as well as the Sydney & Melbourne “Teal” seats.
The future looks great.
Ven says:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 12:17 pm
”
southsays:
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 11:32 am
And the OH NO song plays.
……….
…….
”
South
There are only Labor Stooges and by inference no LNP Stooges, according to nath.
中华人民共和国
I can count Three Stooges that regularly post here and they ain’t Labor Stooges (of which I am proudly one).
There’s a need for “Someone with a serious legal background”.
Albo steals Howard’s “I don’t deal in hypotheticals” response. Good move.
Solicitor General’s full opinion:
https://www.pmc.gov.au/news-centre/government/solicitor-general-opinion-validity-appointment-mr-morrison
Nice catch Andre probyn. This is the problem for the GG now.
Gosh, I hate it when we get off topic questions when we’re meant to be talking about how shit the LNP are.
Oopsies.