Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 (open thread)

The third pollster to chance its arm at federal voting intention since the election gives the new government its best set of numbers yet.

The Age/Herald today brings its first Resolve Strategic poll federal poll since the election, which I count as the third set of fully published federal poll results since the election, together with one Newspoll and one Roy Morgan (so not counting various sketchily reported Roy Morgan results over the last few weeks). This is by some distance Labor’s best result of the three, crediting them with 42% of the primary vote (compared with 32.6% at the election, 37% from Newspoll and 36% from Morgan), the Coalition with 28% (35.7% at the election, 33% from Newspoll, 37% from Roy Morgan), the Greens with 12% (12.3% at the election), One Nation with 5% (5.0%), the United Australia Party with 2% (4.1%), independents with 8% (5.3%) and others with 3%.

Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but my calculation based on flows from the recent election, matched by that of Kevin Bonham, has Labor with a lead of 61.3-38.7, compared with 52.1-47.9 at the election, 56-44 from Newspoll and 53-47 from Roy Morgan (which is also about where Morgan’s sketchily reported recent polls have had it). As with its pre-election polling, Resolve provides breakdowns for the three largest states, which by my calculation produce Labor two-party leads of 60.1-39.9 in New South Wales (51.4-48.6 at the election), 64.2-35.8 in Victoria (54.8-45.2) and 59.1-40.9 in Queensland (reversing a 54.0-46.0 advantage at the election).

Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 61% (combining responses of very good and good), the same as his result from Newspoll, and a disapproval rating of 22% (very poor plus poor), compared with Newspoll’s 26%. Peter Dutton respectively comes in at 30% and 37%, whereas Newspoll had it at 37% and 41%, consistent with its tendency to produce lower uncommitted ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 2011.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll asked voters to rank both leaders on a ten-point scale, which found 43% scoring Anthony Albanese between seven and ten, 23% rating him between zero and three and the rest rating him between four and six. Peter Dutton was ranked positively by 26%, negatively by 34% and neutral by the rest. The poll also found 80% believed governments should take an active role in the economy compared with only 20% who believed who believed it should leave things to the market, reflected in further findings of 70% support for government-imposed limits on prices for essential services such as energy, with only 7% opposed, and 61% in favour of taxes on companies that make additional profits due to rising inflation, with unopposed specified. It also found 47% in favour of higher skilled migration, with 18% opposed. The poll had a sample of 1065 and was, I assume, conducted from Wednesday to Sunday – the full report should be published on the pollster’s website later today. UPDATE: Full results here.

We have also had from Ipsos a global poll on attitudes to abortion, which finds 45% of Australians believe abortion should be legal in all cases and 25% legal in most, compared with 6% for illegal in all cases and 9% for illegal in most. The respect combined results for the 27 countries surveyed were 30% and 29%, and 10% and 16% – Australians were roughly as Liberal as those in most European countries except Sweden and France, and more so than Americans, Latin Americans and Asians.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,638 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 33
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  1. Whether you are an “appeaser” or a “doomer”, this is an excellent and well balanced article on climate breakdown …

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/22/climate-emergency-doomer-appeaser-precautionary-principle

    While it would be nice to think that we are overplaying the threat of climate breakdown, following an appeaser line would be courting disaster. This is particularly the case as there seems to be a growing propensity to label pretty much anything outside the current consensus as doomist. But consensus doesn’t equate to being right. In fact, research has revealed that climate scientists as a tribe (of which I count myself a member), and IPCC reports underplay the speed and intensity with which climate breakdown is happening.

    The reality is that our understanding of potential tipping points and feedback effects remains too poorly constrained for us to be confident of how severe climate breakdown will end up proving to be. Furthermore, minimising the potential impact of climate breakdown is more likely to lead to increased reticence in relation to slashing emissions than any potential exaggeration of the likely endgame.

    A middle of the road route would be to no one’s advantage – so, as for most situations wherein the risk is hard to quantify, there is only one sensible way forward: to hope for the best, while preparing for the worst.

    There is no middle road. Hope for the best while preparing for the worst.

  4. From previous thread since I posted it late into the night.

    Vensays:
    Monday, August 22, 2022 at 11:06 pm
    ”
    A disclaimer noting that ministers may be sworn to administer other portfolios without it being shown on the official parliamentary list was added just days after Scott Morrison took over as prime minister in 2018.

    https://thenewdaily-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/08/22/disclaimer-added-morrison-ministry-list/amp/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16611724458751&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fthenewdaily.com.au%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Faustralian-politics%2F2022%2F08%2F22%2Fdisclaimer-added-morrison-ministry-list%2F
    ”

    Me: So he was doing a heist in broad daylight but nobody picked it up.
    He was robbing us blind with a sleight of hand and the media was marvelling at his magic rather than catching him

  5. Scott Morrison is watching a scandal over his secret cabinet self-appointments unfold from the safety of the back benches.

    But contamination from his radioactive prime ministership is spreading through Australia’s system of government and now, at the very top, threatens Governor-General David Hurley, who signed off on five duplicate Morrison ministries.

    A new call for a Royal Commission into the GG’s role hints at looming trouble for an office which must be seen to float above politics.

    UNSW Law Professor Rosalind Dixon says Mr Morrison proposed to change cabinet so radically by giving himself secret powers overlapping with his colleagues’ that the GG should have asked if it threatened the constitutional principles his job exists to uphold.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/08/22/morrison-legacy-governor-general/

  6. Victoria @ #47 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 8:35 am

    Interesting point

    ——

    Ronni salt

    The case centres around an allegation to the Murdoch’s knowledge of, and support of, their Fox network’s involvement in Trump’s January 6 attempted coup.

    That’s a topic that’s hotter than a napalm bomb – with a discovery process that nobody would want. Crikey know that.

    They say Sean Hannity isn’t very bright. Laura Ingraham’s brother has said what he thinks of her. And then there’s Tucker Carlson…

  7. Me: So he was doing a heist in broad daylight but nobody picked it up.
    He was robbing us blind with a sleight of hand and the media was marvelling at his magic rather than catching him

    Ven,
    Not only did Scott Morrison operate in secret but he hid his operations behind opaque language in obscure places where you would least expect to find them.

  8. ”
    According to Alexandra Smith, Dominic Perrottet will lose a second cabinet member to retirement with Corrections Minister Geoff Lee the latest MP to announce he will leave politics at the March state election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/second-minister-pulls-the-plug-on-the-perrottet-government-20220822-p5bbuy.html
    ”

    Geoff Lee was the MP, who hit out of the park in 2011 NSW State election according to Barry O’Farrell.
    He is the incumbent MP of Parramatta and still very popular in the Electorate. When Gladys B scrapped through in 2019 election, he had margin of over 12%.
    In 2011 NSW State election, he got a swing of 25%, the biggest in the state, I think.
    IMO, NSW Labor cannot win majority without winning electorates of Penrith and Parramatta.
    Now NSW Labor has a opening in Parramatta with the retirement of Lee.
    The lady luck of Chris Minns continues.

  9. 28% would be the lowest Coalition primary vote poll in, a long time right?

    Rudd honeymoon peaked at 63 2PP, but still 31% Coalition primary.

    Looking from Abbott’s first budget through knifing, the lowest I saw was 33%, although I’ve only checked Roy Morgan.

    33% seemed to be the lowest Roy Morgan went for PM Howard against OL Rudd, and 33% the lowest I could see again for Howard in 2001 pre Tampa and 9/11.

    Can anyone recall an opinion poll with such a low Coalition primary vote?

  10. The case centres around an allegation to the Murdoch’s knowledge of, and support of, their Fox network’s involvement in Trump’s January 6 attempted coup.
    _______________
    At the very least it can be easily argued that Fox’s campaign against Dominion, and by extension it’s support for the Big Lie, contributed to the outrage of Trump supporters that day.

  11. Good Resolve Strategic results for the ALP, I guess that the Coalition will be looking at themselves in the mirror and just reassure each other that this is only an “extended honeymoon”… I can only wonder how long this “honeymoon” will actually last, perhaps a record may be broken here?….

    This is probably the best place for somebody to take on the task of doing some research on “honeymoon” length for new Federal governments….

  12. #trafficonPB
    Chancing the half filled gaps,
    my immediate needs intersecting with their desires,
    I took to the street jazz.

  13. Can Dutton ever recover from such horrific poll results? The Government itself may lose support at times, but it seems very unlikely Dutton could ever get within striking distance of Albanese on an approval rating.
    For the Libs, Dutton is only a fill-in. He is the question-not the answer.
    For me, that is , apart from them being seemingly irrelevant as an Opposition, who is going to lead them out of the electoral wilderness?

  14. All credit to you BK. What a marvellous establishment.

    And from Bongo in TND

    The role of Hurley here is critical; he claims it was not his responsibility to publicise these arrangements.

    But it has now emerged that since December 2019 his office stopped reporting to the Senate an indexed list of files chronicling all his official activities.

    This requirement was legislated back in 1994.

    Greens senator David Shoebridge says “it is a pretty stark coincidence that this refusal to provide transparency happens just six months after David Hurley takes on the role of Governor-General.”

    A job given to him by Scott Morrison.

    Funny that.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/08/23/paul-bongiorno-governor-general-republic/?

  15. “We have also had from Ipsos a global poll on attitudes to abortion, which finds 45% of Australians believe abortion should be legal in all cases and 25% legal in most, compared with 6% for illegal in all cases and 9% for illegal in most. The respect combined results for the 27 countries surveyed were 30% and 29%, and 10% and 16% – Australians were roughly as Liberal as those in most European countries except Sweden and France, and more so than Americans, Latin Americans and Asians.”…

    That’s very bad news for the Australian Trumpists, alongside the substantial increase in the number of people who declared themselves as non-religious at the last census. The Americanisation of Australian politics seems to be losing strength…. Is that a result of the Voter De-Moronisation process that many of us have been talking about for the past three years?

  17. From Dawn Patrol
    ”
    Revelations about Scott Morrison’s power-grab of five secret ministries raise serious questions about the health of Australian media and in turn, the media’s commitment to contribute to a strong democracy, writes Victoria Fielding who says the lack of scrutiny helped Morrison scandal go unnoticed.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/lack-of-scrutiny-helped-morrison-scandal-go-unnoticed,16688
    ”

    Refer my post @9:02 am
    So he (Morrison) was doing a heist in broad daylight but nobody picked it up.
    He was robbing us blind with a sleight of hand and the media was marvelling at his magic rather than catching him

  18. Ven,
    Chris Minns didn’t cause the implosion of the NSW Coalition government. And what is ‘luck’ anyway?

    Maybe this will resonate with you:

    What is luck According to Gita?

    The main goal of the individual is to obtain Mukti or Moksha. If a soul becomes free from the misery of taking rebirth, then it is considered a lucky soul. Lord Krishna has counseled Arjun in Bhagwat Gita about the necessity of salvation and he also showed the path for attaining salvation.

    So, maybe Chris Minns is simply a man whose time has come?

  19. Gettysburg1863 @ #63 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 9:36 am

    Can Dutton ever recover from such horrific poll results? The Government itself may lose support at times, but it seems very unlikely Dutton could ever get within striking distance of Albanese on an approval rating.
    For the Libs, Dutton is only a fill-in. He is the question-not the answer.
    For me, that is , apart from them being seemingly irrelevant as an Opposition, who is going to lead them out of the electoral wilderness?

    Someone not yet born hopefully.

    But seriously, good oppositions are important. The Coalition were wilfully rotten, totally destructive of even the most worthwhile agendas, with not a constructive bone in their body. Abbott was the apogee. Little wonder that they went on to be totally shit in government, having fermented a platform that had nothing to do with the national good, only rabid self interest.

    Dutton, belligerent and divisive and hopelessly out of his depth, meanwhile is in nowhere land, with a few stuttering attempts to agree with Labor, but even that looks as insincere as it actually is.

  20. “Gettysburg1863 says:
    Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 9:36 am
    Can Dutton ever recover from such horrific poll results?”

    As we now know, Liberal party leaders tend to rely on “miracles”, so they believe that everything is possible. Pity is that St Rupert of the Miracles is kind of losing a bit of his miraculous power… I can’t wait for the coming VIC and NSW state elections to see how much power Murdoch still has….

  21. @Alpo – here’s a start.

    Rudd’s honeymoon is still a fair target to chase down. Rudd won 52.7% 2PP in Nov 2007, and polled greater than that until Oct-Nov 2009, when he got his first 52% result. His first and only result where he was behind in the polls was a 49 result in Apr-May 2010, and he was knifed around 7 weeks later.

  24. ”
    The bosses of the big four banks, which among them employ almost 150,000 Australians, have not been invited to the Albanese government’s jobs summit next week.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/whos-in-whos-out-bank-bosses-snubbed-for-albaneses-jobs-summit/news-story/86ed9c2ae120df3598d4a0c82fe52b83
    ”

    Albanese is sending a message to Big 4 . I wonder what it is.
    Could it be that they will not be given any special treatment like they were during previous governments did?

  25. shellbell @ #66 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 9:45 am

    ItzaDream

    Suggestion of snow in Southern Highlands this arvo.

    Photos please.

    That’d be fun. We’re only at about 700m here. It’s only just starting to cloud over, and very very still. But I’m ready: sled, shovels, carrot for snowman nose, hot chocolate, open fire, marshmallows … PB to while away the snowed in days.

  26. Dutton is depending on the Greens to aggravate the Senate and to run the holier-than-thou stage 3 populist campaign. But it may take more than the traditional Dutton/Bandt wedge to save Dutton.

  28. Gettysburg1863 says:
    Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 9:36 am

    “who is going to lead them out of the electoral wilderness?”

    Very good question!

    I can only see two realistic options in the current H. of Reps: Andrew Hastie and Karen Andrews. That’s not very encouraging for the Coalition. So, as the say goes, the next Liberal party PM is not in Parliament yet.

  30. This poll does seem to indicate that voters have woken up to the fact that the Greens’ decade-long and vicious attack on Labor – ‘same old, same old’ – was a Big Lie.

  31. Re political honeymoons:

    Kevin Rudd’s honeymoon lasted well into 2009, nearly two years in fact.

    NewsCorp decided push for regime change as 2009 political year got underway. Kevin wobbled with Utegate in mid 2009 but he quickly recovered when the “scandal” collapsed in farce. I’d pinpoint the beginning of the end for Kevin Rudd to the mishandling of the Oceanic Viking affair in October-November 2009. The failure of COP15 (Copenhagen) in November, force majeure beyond his control, followed by the defeat of the CPRS on December 1 sped things up. As the 2010 political year got underway, Kevin Rudd seemed to completely lose his touch. The rest is history.

    Bob Hawke’s honeymoon also lasted nearly two years. He tried to capitalise on it by calling an early election in late 1984. When the expected landslide turned into a loss of seats and a narrow win, Bob became (politically) mortal, although he went on to win two more elections.

    I’m sure there are lessons for Albo somewhere in all that.

  32. ”
    Victoria is facing a shortage of almost 400,000 workers within three years, amid warnings the lowest unemployment for almost 50 years and soaring job vacancies could soon act as a handbrake on the state economy. Ahead of next month’s federal jobs summit, a report by Victoria’s new Skills Authority has suggested the state is in danger of not having enough suitable workers across a range of key industries, reports Josh Gordon.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-facing-shortage-of-almost-400000-workers-by-2025-20220822-p5bbrc.html

    Nath
    What a turn around from previous Kirner government in early 90s, where people could not get a menial job in Victoria and Victoria had highest unemployment in the land.
    I went to Hawke government initiated Jobs fair in late 1990 (or was it 1991) from Sydney to Melbourne. It was a big scam. There were no job opportunities. It was a some kind of a show put on help Kirner government.

  33. High-anticipated legal advice into former Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s secret ministerial appointments will reportedly be “scathing”.

    Solicitor-General Dr Stephen Donaghue QC examined Mr Morrison’s controversial moves and provided his legal advice to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday, ahead of federal cabinet on Tuesday.

    Senior government sources who are familiar with the advice said Mr Donaghue is critical of Mr Morrison’s conduct and his decision to keep it secret, and paves the way for a formal investigation, according to news.com.au.

    Many constitutional experts doubt the Solicitor-General will find the former prime minister acted illegally but it is likely to lead to reform.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/scott-morrison-portfolio-solicitor-generals-response-scathing/news-story/9472008b77510b44ba2dc248500d6fc1?amp

  34. “Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 9:55 am
    Dutton is depending on the Greens to aggravate the Senate and to run the holier-than-thou stage 3 populist campaign. But it may take more than the traditional Dutton/Bandt wedge to save Dutton.”

    Bandt seems to be fast learning to talk to his base, but act more reasonably in cooperation with the ALP. Helping Dutton would be the end of Bandt and his party…. he knows it.

  35. I don’t know the Ins and Outs, but it’s not a bad line:

    We shouldn’t have to fight this hard to get a train fixed and we certainly shouldn’t have to fight this hard to get decent wages and conditions.

  36. ItzaDream

    “ But seriously, good oppositions are important. The Coalition were wilfully rotten, totally destructive of even the most worthwhile agendas, with not a constructive bone in their body. Abbott was the apogee. Little wonder that they went on to be totally shit in government, having fermented a platform that had nothing to do with the national good, only rabid self interest.

    Dutton, belligerent and divisive and hopelessly out of his depth, meanwhile is in nowhere land, with a few stuttering attempts to agree with Labor, but even that looks as insincere as it actually is.”

    Agreed, a good opposition is important. The current one is not such an example. As the remnants of a sinister, shadowy and secretive government who had destroyed all public trust and trashed all convention, they are doomed in this first term to natural despair and infighting. A loss in 2025 through resignations and additional electoral attrition is required to cleanse them of their main cancerous personalities as well as understanding the necessity of a realignment of 21st century Australian values.

  37. “Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 9:59 am”

    A 2-year honeymoon?… I hope you are right, Steve, that would be very helpful.

  39. ”
    Victoriasays:
    Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 8:07 am
    Dogs brunch

    I often get sky news articles appearing on my feed.

    The headlines are always as bad as the one you linked.

    The latest one i saw was relating to victoria.
    It read “victoria is a basket case”.

    I never link to the actual articles.

    I guess victoria virtually having the best economy in australia being a basket case. What does it say about the rest of the country.
    Lol!
    ”

    Victoria
    Those were the headlines from Kirner government time. Murdoch rags are just regurgitating them in the hope that Victorian people will be triggered by that.

  40. Most of us have been there, peering uncertainly at the back of the fridge. Very occasionally curiosity overwhelms hesitancy and you push in to discover the lurkers, and realize shamefully that you’ve put things off for too long. That’s what I think happened with voters at the last election. And once you reach in and sniff what you’ve been studiously ignoring you can’t find the bin fast enough. Our journalists are doing it now with Mr Morrison. It’s a cluttered fridge.

  41. ”A 2-year honeymoon?… I hope you are right, Steve, that would be very helpful.”

    It would be great. It means that Albo would have a chance to get stuff done, it might discourage naysayers. However, as the trajectory of Kevin07’s Premiership shows, it would bring no guarantee.

    As I recall, John Howard also got dream run for the first 12-18 months of his Premiership but nearly lost in 1998 after 2 years 7 months.

    Someone mentioned “political capital”. Albo has it now. I suspect that such capital has something like a radioactive half-life. It is eroded by the realities of day to day Government, force majeure (“events”), necessary but unpopular decisions and the inevitable stuffups that do happen. It can also be so easily lost in large chunks – a bad decision, a scandal or, once again, “events”. Albo needs to use it while he’s got it, but use it judiciously.

  45. ” But seriously, good oppositions are important. The Coalition were wilfully rotten, totally destructive of even the most worthwhile agendas, with not a constructive bone in their body. ”

    I tend to regard their incompetence as their saving grace. Their agenda, mostly kept hidden behind a wall of culture war crap, dog-whistling, pork-barrelling, lies and obfuscation is poisonous. They deserve to go the way of the WA Liberals.

  46. “Agreed, a good opposition is important.”

    There hasn’t been a good conservative opposition since Hewson.

    You don’t need an opposition at all when the media runs 24/7 as the opposition, but they leave out the ‘good’ they are entirely destructive, entirely partisan and entirely the interests of the super wealthy over all else. I don’t understand why anyone watches or reads almost anything out of the Australian mainstream media, it may not be US fox level bad, but it is bad in its own way and just incredibly dumb in a way the media, even in the US doesn’t seem incredibly dumb.

  47. Scottsays:
    Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 8:25 am
    Is it much easier and politically smart for the greens and teals to take seats from the lib/nats.
    _____________________
    Just remember you heard it here first folks.

  48. Morrison was able to position himself to gain the leadership of the parliamentary liberal party and the PMship.
    If anyone (excluding Dutton) were to take over and lead the liberals, that person could lead with the knowledge that the performance of Morrison has assured that a new leader could only improve.
    Even the most vitriolic critics of Morrison from before 2019 (such as myself) are in awe of the depths to which Morrison has taken the parliamentary liberals.
    And there’s more to come!

  49. ItzaDream @ #74 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 9:54 am

    shellbell @ #66 Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022 – 9:45 am

    ItzaDream

    Suggestion of snow in Southern Highlands this arvo.

    Photos please.

    That’d be fun. We’re only at about 700m here. It’s only just starting to cloud over, and very very still. But I’m ready: sled, shovels, carrot for snowman nose, hot chocolate, open fire, marshmallows … PB to while away the snowed in days.

    Surely you have a recipe for Gluhwein, Itza? 🙂

  50. shellbell says:
    Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 10:27 am

    3 literary references for an AFL article. Fun.
    _____
    I had 4 if you count the Collingwood reference to Achilles/Homer

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