Fannie Bay by-election live

Live coverage of counting from the Northern Territory’s Fannie Bay by-election.

9.08pm. The two-party numbers from Parap look better to me for Labor than the primary votes did, breaking 805-640 their way for a swing of 8.6%. That puts Labor ahead 1745-1597, and I don’t believe there’s more to come than a trickle of late postals and a handful of provisionals. In raw terms, which are as good as any other by this stage, that gives Labor a winning margin of 2.2% after a swing of 7.3%, which is roughly par for the course for a by-election result — maybe a little worse.

8.01pm. Parap has indeed swung heavily against Labor, and with much more votes cast than last time — 1445 compared with 895 formal votes. So we have likely seen a move among conservative voters from pre-poll to election day voting. Labor is down 16.0%, the CLP is up 6.9% and the Greens are up 7.7%. So we’re still looking at a tight result.

7.57pm. The postals broke 120-113 to the CLP on two-party, so they still have a tight 957-940 overall lead. However, the big outstanding factor is the Parap booth, which broke 576-319 to Labor in 2020. For the CLP to get home, the swing there will need to exceed what we’ve seen so far.

7.53pm. 233 postal votes have been added to the primary vote count, and they have swung heavily against Labor — down 21.0% on the primary vote with the CLP up 13.5% and the Greens up 9.7%.

7.36pm. I made a bit of data entry error on the Darwin pre-poll booth: Labor’s primary vote was indeed down 10.2%, but the CLP was only up 4.3% with the Greens up 6.6%. So in other words, the swings there were much like Ludmilla and Labor still looks like it has an advantage. Now the two-party is in from the pre-poll booth, and while the CLP won the booth and has a raw lead of 837-827, they did much better on pre-polls in 2020 than other kinds of vote. If that’s the case again this time, Labor should pull ahead from here. However, that may not entirely hold this time because there was only one pre-poll option this time compared with three, and it appears voters may have taken their business to election day booths.

7.19pm. With 1664 votes in from the Darwin pre-poll booth, it would seem we’re looking at a very close result here: Labor is down 10.7% and the CLP is up 9.1%, suggesting a two-party swing bang on the Labor margin of 9.6%.

7.05pm. The Ludmilla two-party result is 248-210 in favour of Labor, which is a 7.3% swing to the CLP compared with 2020.

6.39pm. Eleanor in comments dispels my earlier confusion about “Urban Voting Darwin”, which is mobile hospital voting (and sometimes prisons, but not on this occasion). It’s 16 votes broke 9-7 to the CLP on two-party preferred.

6.38pm. The Ludmilla booth is in, with 458 formal votes this time compared with 282 last time, presumably due to there being fewer pre-poll voting places this time. There is a solid 11.6% drop in the primary vote to 30.6%, but most of it has gone to the Greens, who are up 8.2% to 24.2%. The CLP is up 5.1% to 37.6%, which is less than it would need to rein in the 9.6% margin, but not by so much that you could call the result at this point.

6.22pm. Results are in for something called “Urban Voting Darwin” — whatever this is, it is not the pre-poll booth. It accounts for all of 16 formal votes, of which the CLP has seven and Labor four.

6pm. Polls have closed. There were only 282 votes cast at the Ludmilla booth in 2020, so we should expect primary vote numbers from there at least inside the hour.

4pm. Two hours before the close of polls, here is my live thread for the Fannie Bay by-election count, which will choose a successor to former Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner in an electorate that covers suburbs just north of central Darwin. Labor is defending a seemingly solid margin of 9.6%, but such measures can be deceptive in the territory’s tiny electorates, in which candidate factors weigh heavily. There are three independents in the field along with Labor, the Country Liberal Party and the Greens, and I will have competitive they might be until results are in. There won’t be terribly many of these: there are only two election day polling booths, plus a pre-poll booth that operated in central Darwin. The Labor government, now headed by Natasha Fyles, holds 14 seats out of 25, so defeat would leave it one away from minority status.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

24 comments on “Fannie Bay by-election live”

  1. If the ”The simple reality is that big swings in Territory by-elections are common,” statement is true, then why did Labor buck the trend and win the Daly by-election?

  2. Urban Voting Darwin is when they take the mobile booths to the public and private hospital for votes to be cast from there. They also take them to the prisons, but not this time.

  3. Raj Rajwin ran federally for the UAP a couple of times. George Mamouzellous ran in the Casuarina by-election back in 2014. Leah Potter is a comedian (with a FB page called “Independent Candidate for Chief Minister”…?); she ran in Port Darwin in 2020.

    Looks like none of them will be doing anything interesting.

  4. NTEC has it 53.8% TCP for the ALP with Darwin EVC and Ludmilla counted but Parap yet to report. Still tight enough to go either way.

  5. That TCP of 53% is a very early figure. WB is right about it being tight. The Parap booths are ‘old money’ but balanced somewhat by the recent proliferation of flats/apartments with their younger demographic.

  6. NTEC advise the ALP candidate is 148 votes up at the end of counting with 63.1% counted. Postal votes outstanding total 260, so it looks like a
    Labor hold.

  7. Not over yet, Still will be absentees/postals to count even if there are fewer than the general election. Will be very close. ALP are claiming victory premature. and Antony Green hasn’t called the seat (even though he is on vacation)

  8. @Daniel

    Antony said on his blog he would be sticking to his bike riding in Italy and not commenting let alone analysing the results.

  9. Great to see Upnorth commenting on this story. You kept a lot of the nervous Nellie’s spirits up during the last federal election. Some thought a small gaffe and being chased around by those of the Murdoch persuasion looking for a gotcha, was enough for Albo to come up short. You knew better, good
    Onya cobber!!!!!

  10. Princeplanet says:
    Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 11:40 am

    Great to see Upnorth commenting on this story. You kept a lot of the nervous Nellie’s spirits up during the last federal election. Some thought a small gaffe and being chased around by those of the Murdoch persuasion looking for a gotcha, was enough for Albo to come up short. You knew better, good
    Onya cobber!!!!!
    中华人民共和国
    You are a good cobber too! I make the odd (sic) contribution here and there on PB but I been busy putting coin on the table (had the COVID too but 4 vaccinations was the trick and the whole family only had a sore throat and runny nose).

    Yeah remember that first week of the Federal campaign Princeplanet. The “bedwetters” went to water. All they needed was a bit of Bundy Rum.

    I reckon Albo is doing pretty good too. That NSW Tory however mob stinks to high heaven. With such small enrolments by-elections in the NT are fraught with danger so Labor wil be happy with a win.

    You keep safe Princeplanet.

  11. Upnorth at 2.57 pm

    If you ever come Down South during winter, please wear a mask, all of youse. Covid ain’t going away.

    On official figures, the per capita death rate from Covid in Australia is now 510 per million; NZ at 517.

    Officially Thailand is 456. But on real excess deaths, the figure for Thailand was 502 by the end of 2021.

    Remarkably, the per capita death rate in the NT is 245, better than Singapore at 265, but not for long.

  12. Have Territory Alliance folded, or just quietly faded away?

    Good result for the Greens, but with no upper house there’s not much they could turn it into. Maybe they’ll win Nightcliff one day.

  13. I understand Territory Alliances big star Jeff Collins (sometimes known as the Fireman on PB) has given politics away and maybe living in Sydney.

    30 years of playing ALP right politics and his reward was 1 term of representing 5000 people and he ratted halfway through.

    Was it worth it?

  14. Dr Doolittle says:
    Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 3:10 pm

    Upnorth at 2.57 pm

    If you ever come Down South during winter, please wear a mask, all of youse. Covid ain’t going away.

    On official figures, the per capita death rate from Covid in Australia is now 510 per million; NZ at 517.

    Officially Thailand is 456. But on real excess deaths, the figure for Thailand was 502 by the end of 2021.

    Remarkably, the per capita death rate in the NT is 245, better than Singapore at 265, but not for long.
    中华人民共和国
    Digger I will have to come down and get some Barra! Masks still de rigueur up here, even though not compulsory.

    Thailand has done very well in terms of managing the plague. Whilst they have a youngish population profile, their on the ground work getting vaccines into arms has been excellent (though early on Sinovac and Sinopharm were used). We actually flew to the USA and got Pfizer shots as only Thais and Diplomats could get the vaccine at that stage. Boosted by Moderna here. On 1 October the Thai Government will class COVID as endemic, similar to Influenza.

  15. I wouldn’t say /big/ news for the Greens when it’s only a few hundred votes extra but good for them all the same. Does anyone know if the Greens did a qld-style door-knocking campaign for this? With the small electorates it seems like fertile ground for something like that to bear fruit.

  16. Why is everyone calling this seat when there is still 2030 votes left to be counted according to the NTEC, and only 62% of the vote in?

    What if the CLP’s early votes are even stronger for them? Usually late counting favours the coalition.

    I’d like an explanation into the call.

  17. Daniel

    There are nothing remotely like 2,030 votes to come in, probably more like 250 to 300. I don’t know how closely you follow elections here in the NT, but it is important to understand that turnout here is much lower than in the rest of Australia. Ad to that the fact this is a bye election called with three weeks notice and that drags turnout down even more. Bottom line is there aren’t enough votes left to overturn Labor’s lead.

  18. If anyone bothers visiting here, NTEC has just called the seat for Labor’s Brent Potter. The margin is currently 182, but since there are only a potential 101 outstanding postals, NTEC has blown the whistle for an ‘early bath’. Well done Natasha Fyles and her team.

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