Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 (open thread)

The third pollster to chance its arm at federal voting intention since the election gives the new government its best set of numbers yet.

The Age/Herald today brings its first Resolve Strategic poll federal poll since the election, which I count as the third set of fully published federal poll results since the election, together with one Newspoll and one Roy Morgan (so not counting various sketchily reported Roy Morgan results over the last few weeks). This is by some distance Labor’s best result of the three, crediting them with 42% of the primary vote (compared with 32.6% at the election, 37% from Newspoll and 36% from Morgan), the Coalition with 28% (35.7% at the election, 33% from Newspoll, 37% from Roy Morgan), the Greens with 12% (12.3% at the election), One Nation with 5% (5.0%), the United Australia Party with 2% (4.1%), independents with 8% (5.3%) and others with 3%.

Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but my calculation based on flows from the recent election, matched by that of Kevin Bonham, has Labor with a lead of 61.3-38.7, compared with 52.1-47.9 at the election, 56-44 from Newspoll and 53-47 from Roy Morgan (which is also about where Morgan’s sketchily reported recent polls have had it). As with its pre-election polling, Resolve provides breakdowns for the three largest states, which by my calculation produce Labor two-party leads of 60.1-39.9 in New South Wales (51.4-48.6 at the election), 64.2-35.8 in Victoria (54.8-45.2) and 59.1-40.9 in Queensland (reversing a 54.0-46.0 advantage at the election).

Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 61% (combining responses of very good and good), the same as his result from Newspoll, and a disapproval rating of 22% (very poor plus poor), compared with Newspoll’s 26%. Peter Dutton respectively comes in at 30% and 37%, whereas Newspoll had it at 37% and 41%, consistent with its tendency to produce lower uncommitted ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 2011.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll asked voters to rank both leaders on a ten-point scale, which found 43% scoring Anthony Albanese between seven and ten, 23% rating him between zero and three and the rest rating him between four and six. Peter Dutton was ranked positively by 26%, negatively by 34% and neutral by the rest. The poll also found 80% believed governments should take an active role in the economy compared with only 20% who believed who believed it should leave things to the market, reflected in further findings of 70% support for government-imposed limits on prices for essential services such as energy, with only 7% opposed, and 61% in favour of taxes on companies that make additional profits due to rising inflation, with unopposed specified. It also found 47% in favour of higher skilled migration, with 18% opposed. The poll had a sample of 1065 and was, I assume, conducted from Wednesday to Sunday – the full report should be published on the pollster’s website later today. UPDATE: Full results here.

We have also had from Ipsos a global poll on attitudes to abortion, which finds 45% of Australians believe abortion should be legal in all cases and 25% legal in most, compared with 6% for illegal in all cases and 9% for illegal in most. The respect combined results for the 27 countries surveyed were 30% and 29%, and 10% and 16% – Australians were roughly as Liberal as those in most European countries except Sweden and France, and more so than Americans, Latin Americans and Asians.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,638 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. Boerwar says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 7:59 pm

    Dr J
    When I was a kid one of my uncles told me he wanted to pay lots of tax because this eould mean that he wss earning lots of money.
    中华人民共和国
    When I was a kid and still it is so, Cane Farmers are well and away the wealthiest demographic Upnorth.

    But like most Cockys’ they could “Whinge for England”. One particularly obnoxious Cane Cocky was complaining to the old man one (dad being a mere employee at the Sugar Mill) about his bank balance and the Hawke Governments’ horrible “Capital Gains Tax”. Dad offered to swap bank accounts – the dicussion quickly finished.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 8:09 pm

    The Sage
    @SarkySage

    I’ve spotted a potential witness the police may want to speak with in regards to the alleged assault by Barilaro:
    中华人民共和国
    A few too many sherbets under the belt to make an coherent statement.

  3. One of the things I’d like to see red/ blue Labor move on is removing business sounding titles from heads of public service agencies, and GBE, such as CEO back to DG, CEO back to MD …

  4. Upnorthsays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 8:14 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 8:09 pm

    The Sage
    @SarkySage

    I’ve spotted a potential witness the police may want to speak with in regards to the alleged assault by Barilaro:
    中华人民共和国
    A few too many sherbets under the belt to make an coherent statement.

    That doesn’t stop speaking in nation’s Parliament.

  5. Poroti from 3.45 earlier
    “Socrates at 3:33 pm
    Perhaps we would also need to study increased risks from an increase in the number of engineers
    .
    .
    Engineers’ traits ‘linked to terrorism’”

    Indeed. Bin Laden was a civil engineer. Brezhnev was an engineer too.

    I haven’t seen this particular article but jokes aside I have often perceived there is a significant sub-set of engineers who are very absolutist and vulnerable to such ideologies. They are often the obsessive detail-orientated types that make great designers but poor people managers. I would say the same about RW economists, happy to sacrifice the poor so we can all enjoy a better quality of life(??). It is still only a minority of the engineers I know, but a larger proportion than usual.

    I have done some study of philosophy as well as engineering. I would argue that it should be compulsory for all engineers to learn at least basic ethics and critical reasoning in the degree. It would reduce the number of too narrow minds we might turn out.

  6. Dr Doolittle

    More of a concern to me than the sensitivity of RAT tests is the extent to which the government has encourage total complacency. After all if “you’re all gonna get it” why bother test?

    The graph of reported infections in NSW in January peaked at 40,000 (averaged, see Billington). The next wave in April at about 20,000 and the next wave in August peaked at 14,000. But by other measures (like deaths and hospitalisations), the covid wave in August was nearly as bad as it was in January. What does this say about complacency and testing compliance?

    Looking around the street I see two different classes of people. Those who are still informed and sensible in their behaviour. And the sheeple.

  7. ” The figures that Nath reproduced were very relevant in that they were testing people’s attitudes to reducing the tax paid at the higher income levels. In large numbers they weren’t in favour of it.”

    Haven’t seen Nath’s figures and don’t feel included to go back through today’s posts. However, large numbers of people also said they were in favour of the Republic, that were in favour of effective climate action but following massive scare campaigns mostly didn’t vote for them.

  8. I love this exchange at the end of the thread:


    Frosty Morgan
    @frosty_morgan

    Replying to
    @RonniSalt
    and
    @jommy_tee

    And Waleed Aly reckons there’s nothing to see here that a little legislation won’t fix. I love a good inquiry – you never know what might inadvertently turn up.

    Ronni Salt
    @RonniSalt

    Nobody cares what he thinks.

    He’s like a parrot in a pet shop cage – he’s there to make empty noises.

    😀

  9. WAEC @WAElections
    · 4h
    A record field of 12 candidates have nominated to contest the North West Central District By-election on 17 September 2022, to replace retired MLA Vince Catania. For the full list of candidates and details on voting options please click here: https://bit.ly/3PZMZ6M

  10. c@t, I see your link now. For some reason it only appeared after I refreshed the page. To your point, I’d just finished scanning the thread. It’s long and detailed (as you know) and looks poorly for the GG.

  11. https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/08/26/labors-deafening-silence-on-murdoch-meeting/

    The prime minister and two of his most senior ministers are staying silent about a reported meeting on Wednesday with Lachlan Murdoch at News Corp’s Sydney offices.

    Neither Anthony Albanese, Richard Marles nor Penny Wong was prepared to even confirm that they travelled to Murdoch (who is currently suing Crikey) to meet with him and News Corp executives, after Kishor Napier-Raman and David Estcourt reported the meeting this morning for Nine newspapers….

    So, what gives …?

  12. UpNorth, I was was good mates with an Uncle who grew wheat. I provided free labour when he started that enterprise. Whenever we got together there was a lot of beer a few arguements. Once it was about tax, and he reckoned people like him paid too much and were carrying the counttry.

    I went and got my group certificate. He was genuinely astounded as to how much tax a PAYE employee paid.

    We never argued about tax again.

  13. Late Riser @ #1617 Friday, August 26th, 2022 – 8:43 pm

    c@t, I see your link now. For some reason it only appeared after I refreshed the page. To your point, I’d just finished scanning the thread. It’s long and detailed (as you know) and looks poorly for the GG.

    It is absolutely not a good look. It also looks like the GG’s Private Secretary was loose with the truth about the associations between the three in Senate Estimates.

  14. It is absolutely not a good look. It also looks like the GG’s Private Secretary was loose with the truth about the associations between the three in Senate Estimates.
    ———————————
    The spivs are getting bolder.

    The way large sums of gov money is thrown around; the massive grants, the conferences, the galas, the dinners…. I think of all those hardworking charities scrimping and begging for small donations, paying staff minimum wages, just to keep the doors open.

  15. Socratessays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 8:43 pm
    Looks like the ship may have already sailed with regard to Chinese control of the Solomons.
    Sogavare’s plea for Albo to “give us a hug” looks about as sincere as a Morrison announcement.
    _____________________
    Albo was played like a fiddle.

  16. Good news for the Mexicans

    The Daniel Andrews era to live on in Victoria, Newspoll finds

    Daniel Andrews has ­defied unrest over some of the world’s toughest Covid-19 restrictions and is on track to win a third term for Labor in the Victorian election as Liberal leader Matthew Guy’s personal ratings slump to record lows three months from polling day.

    A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian reveals Labor’s primary vote has fallen only slightly since the 2018 election rout, while dissatisfaction with Mr Guy’s performance has soared seven points since voter sentiment was last tested in ­November last year. Labor holds a 56-44 per cent two-party-­preferred lead in the latest poll taken between Monday and Thursday compared with the 58-42 per cent lead Labor held in the previous Newspoll.

    The numbers suggest the ­Coalition is heading for another major loss in the first state ­election since Scott Morrison’s federal ­defeat in May, when Kooyong and Goldstein fell to independents and large swings away from the ­Liberals were recorded in other key seats.

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-daniel-andrews-era-to-live-on-in-victoria-newspoll-finds/news-story/282d1afeb0fc4dabad269cd348a4fa92

  17. Taylormade says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 9:41 pm

    Socratessays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 8:43 pm
    Looks like the ship may have already sailed with regard to Chinese control of the Solomons.
    Sogavare’s plea for Albo to “give us a hug” looks about as sincere as a Morrison announcement.
    _____________________
    Albo was played like a fiddle.
    中华人民共和国
    You are a Mexican aren’t you Taylormade?

    At 41 per cent, Victorian Labor’s primary vote, while down three points from last ­November, is equal to or higher than at any time before the 2014 or 2018 elections. Mr Andrews’ satisfaction rating of 54 per cent is higher than at any time before the 2014 or 2018 elections and has barely changed since the last Newspoll in November. Dissatisfaction with Mr Andrews is 41 per cent for a net satisfaction rating of 13.

    Only 32 per cent of voters were satisfied with Mr Guy’s performance compared with 49 per cent dissatisfied. Mr Guy’s net satisfaction of minus 17 per cent, is the ­lowest he has recorded in ­Newspoll, worse than his previous low of minus 15 a month ­before the 2018 election. The result is certain to increase chatter about his ­viability in the run-up to the election.

    There will also be concerns about suggestions independents will stand in key seats after the success of teal candidates in the May federal election. Statewide support for “others” is running at 10 per cent.

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-daniel-andrews-era-to-live-on-in-victoria-newspoll-finds/news-story/282d1afeb0fc4dabad269cd348a4fa92

  18. This Guy chap sounds like the right choice for the Libs

    “On the better premier rating, Mr Andrews is down three points to 51 per cent and Mr Guy is ­statistically unchanged on 34 per cent.

    The Coalition primary vote of 36 per cent has barely moved since 2018 while Labor is down nearly two points to 41 per cent, with an expectation the November election result would have Labor in the 30s.
    Related stories”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-daniel-andrews-era-to-live-on-in-victoria-newspoll-finds/news-story/282d1afeb0fc4dabad269cd348a4fa92

  19. I guess the punters liked to live…….

    “Based on preference flows at recent state and federal elections, Andrews would have secured 56 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote had a poll been held this week, just over a point less than the 2018 rout.

    This is despite truckloads of baggage that include one of the world’s longest pandemic lockdown strategies, a buckling health system, a smashed budget, major project overruns and integrity scandals piling up on Spring St.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/victorian-coalition-on-course-for-a-kicking-says-newspoll/news-story/422c027101975cf139a6dbab85e30fe7

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 10:03 pm

    Nothing about Matthew Guy’s CoS ‘integrity scandal’ in The Australian? Hmm.
    中华人民共和国

    Just a little my dear – but terribly funny…

    “Senior Liberals have been ­informally discussing the merits of whether to keep Mr Guy in the position, arguing the transition from former leader Michael O’Brien hasn’t worked. “If there is another scandal, he’s gone, but who would ever want that job now?” a senior Liberal said. “He wanted it badly enough; he can deal with the mess.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-daniel-andrews-era-to-live-on-in-victoria-newspoll-finds/news-story/282d1afeb0fc4dabad269cd348a4fa92

  21. zoomster says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:45 pm
    Well, Labor must be travelling OK if the usual suspects can’t come up with anything new.
    ……………………….

    Yes, nath and P1 are enjoying themselves furiously with their confected outrage over the s3 tax cuts.

    No one with any sense of decency would on principle support the tax cuts.

    No one with any (political) sense would propose Albo paint himself completely dishonest by legislating to abolish the tax cuts he promised to support barely 3 months ago.

    P1 and nath just getting their jollies. They will keep it going until they can hit on another wedge to attack the ALP over. Their campaign would make more sense if the other party in the binary democratic option available actually opposed the s3 tax cuts. As the lnp not only support the tax cuts, they sponsored them, their campaign is just ludicrous nonsense.

  22. At 51:34 in favour of Dan Andrews, Mathew Guy isn’t actually doing that badly. It’s just that the Coalition is so unpopular in Victoria.

  23. Upnorth @ #1628 Friday, August 26th, 2022 – 10:07 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 10:03 pm

    Nothing about Matthew Guy’s CoS ‘integrity scandal’ in The Australian? Hmm.
    中华人民共和国

    Just a little my dear – but terribly funny…

    “Senior Liberals have been ­informally discussing the merits of whether to keep Mr Guy in the position, arguing the transition from former leader Michael O’Brien hasn’t worked. “If there is another scandal, he’s gone, but who would ever want that job now?” a senior Liberal said. “He wanted it badly enough; he can deal with the mess.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-daniel-andrews-era-to-live-on-in-victoria-newspoll-finds/news-story/282d1afeb0fc4dabad269cd348a4fa92

    Trubbel at Liberal mill. 😆

    That’s an indictment of the Victorian Liberals though, isn’t it? ‘Who wants the job!?!’ of Opposition Leader.

  24. Windhover @ #1629 Friday, August 26th, 2022 – 10:13 pm

    No one with any sense of decency would on principle support the tax cuts.

    No one with any (political) sense would propose Albo paint himself completely dishonest by legislating to abolish the tax cuts he promised to support barely 3 months ago.

    Please re-read what you just wrote.

    You are saying that Albo has no sense of decency or no principles.

  25. “Yes, nath and P1 are enjoying themselves furiously with their confected outrage over the s3 tax cuts.”

    Anyone who doesn’t still believe in trickle down should be outraged with the tax cuts for the wealthy. It is just immoral and obscene.

    Full disclosure: I am likely to benefit from the tax cuts.

  26. WeWantPaulsays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 11:38 pm

    “Yes, nath and P1 are enjoying themselves furiously with their confected outrage over the s3 tax cuts.”

    Anyone who doesn’t still believe in trickle down should be outraged with the tax cuts for the wealthy. It is just immoral and obscene.

    Full disclosure: I am likely to benefit from the tax cuts.

    Who here is arguing that the tax cuts are a good thing?

    Everyone arguing that the cuts should be maintained are doing so from the political perspective saying that the political cost would be too great.

    This is something that those in favour of dumping the cuts refuse to consider or discount completely.

  27. Barney in Cherating says:
    Saturday, August 27, 2022 at 12:05

    Who here is arguing that the tax cuts are a good thing?

    Everyone arguing that the cuts should be maintained are doing so from the political perspective saying that the political cost would be too great.

    This is something that those in favour of dumping the cuts refuse to consider or discount completely.
    中华人民共和国
    Exactly. The lack of “Realpolitik” shown by some on this site is truly astounding. Well put Barney.

  28. ‘UK households will pay almost triple the price to heat their homes this winter compared with a year ago, a jarring increase for millions of people already struggling to afford everyday essentials .. Industry regulator Ofgem raised its cap on domestic energy bills to a record £3,549 (US$4,189) beginning Oct. 1’

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/cost-of-uk-s-winter-triples-as-energy-price-cap-lifted-to-record

    NB The new cap – a 178% increase on last winter’s level and 80% up from April – could reach £5,405 in January after the next adjustment and as high as £7,263 in April

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