Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 (open thread)

The third pollster to chance its arm at federal voting intention since the election gives the new government its best set of numbers yet.

The Age/Herald today brings its first Resolve Strategic poll federal poll since the election, which I count as the third set of fully published federal poll results since the election, together with one Newspoll and one Roy Morgan (so not counting various sketchily reported Roy Morgan results over the last few weeks). This is by some distance Labor’s best result of the three, crediting them with 42% of the primary vote (compared with 32.6% at the election, 37% from Newspoll and 36% from Morgan), the Coalition with 28% (35.7% at the election, 33% from Newspoll, 37% from Roy Morgan), the Greens with 12% (12.3% at the election), One Nation with 5% (5.0%), the United Australia Party with 2% (4.1%), independents with 8% (5.3%) and others with 3%.

Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but my calculation based on flows from the recent election, matched by that of Kevin Bonham, has Labor with a lead of 61.3-38.7, compared with 52.1-47.9 at the election, 56-44 from Newspoll and 53-47 from Roy Morgan (which is also about where Morgan’s sketchily reported recent polls have had it). As with its pre-election polling, Resolve provides breakdowns for the three largest states, which by my calculation produce Labor two-party leads of 60.1-39.9 in New South Wales (51.4-48.6 at the election), 64.2-35.8 in Victoria (54.8-45.2) and 59.1-40.9 in Queensland (reversing a 54.0-46.0 advantage at the election).

Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 61% (combining responses of very good and good), the same as his result from Newspoll, and a disapproval rating of 22% (very poor plus poor), compared with Newspoll’s 26%. Peter Dutton respectively comes in at 30% and 37%, whereas Newspoll had it at 37% and 41%, consistent with its tendency to produce lower uncommitted ratings. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 2011.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll asked voters to rank both leaders on a ten-point scale, which found 43% scoring Anthony Albanese between seven and ten, 23% rating him between zero and three and the rest rating him between four and six. Peter Dutton was ranked positively by 26%, negatively by 34% and neutral by the rest. The poll also found 80% believed governments should take an active role in the economy compared with only 20% who believed who believed it should leave things to the market, reflected in further findings of 70% support for government-imposed limits on prices for essential services such as energy, with only 7% opposed, and 61% in favour of taxes on companies that make additional profits due to rising inflation, with unopposed specified. It also found 47% in favour of higher skilled migration, with 18% opposed. The poll had a sample of 1065 and was, I assume, conducted from Wednesday to Sunday – the full report should be published on the pollster’s website later today. UPDATE: Full results here.

We have also had from Ipsos a global poll on attitudes to abortion, which finds 45% of Australians believe abortion should be legal in all cases and 25% legal in most, compared with 6% for illegal in all cases and 9% for illegal in most. The respect combined results for the 27 countries surveyed were 30% and 29%, and 10% and 16% – Australians were roughly as Liberal as those in most European countries except Sweden and France, and more so than Americans, Latin Americans and Asians.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,638 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 42, Coalition 28, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. Player Onesays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:13 pm

    Barney in Cherating @ #1542 Friday, August 26th, 2022 – 6:07 pm

    The question for Labor is, do they want to pay the political cost of breaking an election promise?

    Labor has put themselves in the position where they will now look ridiculous if they proceed with the stage 3 tax cuts, or if they cancel them, or if they try to amend them.

    The only question is which one makes them look least stupid?

    Do you think the media is going to give them a free pass on this? I somehow doubt that.

    How did it come to this so quickly?

    You really should stop protecting yourself onto others.

    If you value politicians keeping their promises then irrespective of whether you benefit from them or not, you would look at the cuts going through as a positive. To a disengaged voter this is about all that would register on the issue.

  2. There seems to be some confusion about what Labor’s tax policy is, the one they took to the last election. I have reproduced it below, and it supersedes anything Labor figures have said in the past.

    PM Albanese has made it clear he intends keeping those (few) promises he made in the 2022 election campaign. It’s true he may introduce some policies Labor was silent on, like more tax breaks for renewable energy and EVs, but no shifting on a core election promise.

    An Albanese Labor Government will deliver tax relief for more than 9 million Australians through the legislated tax cuts that benefit everyone with incomes above $45,000.

    We will also support cost of living relief for Australians through an increase in the low-and-middle income tax offset by $420 this year.

    Labor will provide certainty and clarity on tax to Australian working families after a difficult few years for our country and the world.

    Our focus is on making sure Australia emerges from this crisis stronger and more resilient – with an economy that works for working families, not the other way around.

    Over almost a decade in government, the Coalition’s record is clear in the lives of everyday Australians:

    – stagnant wages,
    – insecure jobs,
    – increased costs for health care and childcare,
    – longer waits to see a GP, and
    – a trillion dollars in debt.

    The Morrison Government is the second highest taxing government of the last three decades – second only to John Howard’s Government. After promising eight surpluses and delivering eight deficits, including the largest in Australia’s history, this Government’s only legacy will be generational debt without a generational dividend.

    Their own Budget forecasts a second year of declining real wages and independent analysis by the McKell Institute shows that their policies have made the average worker $16,000 a year worse off.

    Improving the Budget is all about growing the economy and creating jobs.

    An Albanese Labor Government will focus on meaningful investments for maximum economic impact and community need, cracking down on waste and rorts, making sure multinationals are paying their fair share of tax, creating more opportunities for more Australians in more parts of the country, and creating a society that is stronger after COVID-19 than it was before.

    https://www.alp.org.au/policies/lower-taxes

  3. I come back to this site and posters are still arguing about cancelling a massive tax cut for the wealthy. Still arguing about something which is not going to happen.
    It won’t happen because Labor, rightly or wrongly, said it would not do it. “Cowards”, some charge.
    Well maybe, but remember all the hoo-ha about abolishing negative gearing and stopping franking credits which were not earned? Do you? Labor promised this at the 2019 election. Despite the fact that only the wealthy would be affected, Labor was hammered, so much so that even pensioners whose only income was the benefit, believed they were facing a pension cut.
    All the logic and attempt at reasoned debate did not cut through the fear campaign.
    Labor learned not to repeat that mistake because it wanted to win the 2022 election. I am glad Labor did and even the leading critics of Labor’s policy on this site say they’re glad Labor won government.
    So tell me, any of you, would you rather Labor had lost the election, promising to cancel the tax cut?
    If anyone can prove to me that Labor breaking this promise now, will not result in the government losing support, I’ll consider your argument more sympathetically.
    Until any of you can, stop wasting time on something that is not going to happen.
    It is starting to bore me.

  4. Mavis
    Somewhat recently you character assessed me as ‘passive aggressive’.
    Humorously, tomorrow I will be at Caulfield races and cheering home Passive Aggressive in Race 7 Cockram Stakes.
    Mares race and result aptly named for one of us.

  5. Barney in Cherating @ #1551 Friday, August 26th, 2022 – 6:28 pm

    If you value politicians keeping their promises then irrespective of whether you benefit from them or not, you would look at the cuts going through as a positive. To a disengaged voter this is about all that would register on the issue.

    Oddly enough, I don’t value politicians who make terrible promises purely for political purposes.

    Nor do I value politicians who can’t admit they made a really silly mistake and then refuse correct it.

    Whereas you apparently are fine with both.

    We will always differ on this.

  6. Sir Henry Parkes @ #1554 Friday, August 26th, 2022 – 6:31 pm

    I come back to this site and posters are still arguing about cancelling a massive tax cut for the wealthy. Still arguing about something which is not going to happen.
    It won’t happen because Labor, rightly or wrongly, said it would not do it. “Cowards”, some charge.
    Well maybe, but remember all the hoo-ha about abolishing negative gearing and stopping franking credits which were not earned? Do you? Labor promised this at the 2019 election. Despite the fact that only the wealthy would be affected, Labor was hammered, so much so that even pensioners whose only income was the benefit, believed they were facing a pension cut.
    All the logic and attempt at reasoned debate did not cut through the fear campaign.
    Labor learned not to repeat that mistake because it wanted to win the 2022 election. I am glad Labor did and even the leading critics of Labor’s policy on this site say they’re glad Labor won government.
    So tell me, any of you, would you rather Labor had lost the election, promising to cancel the tax cut?
    If anyone can prove to me that Labor breaking this promise now, will not result in the government losing support, I’ll consider your argument more sympathetically.
    Until any of you can, stop wasting time on something that is not going to happen.
    It is starting to bore me.

    You’re ignoring the fact that Bill Shorten was NOT trusted by the electorate in 2019.

    It’s a completely different scenario now with the much more palatable Albanese leading together with the more simplified understanding of an unreasonable tax cut in which the better communicator in Chalmers could easily sell.

    Chalk and cheese comparing 2019 to 2022.

  7. Bludgers

    What are the tactics behind appointing a judge to investigate Morrison’s actions while not giving her the power and authority to enforce participation by key witnesses? I’m sure I’m missing something very obvious but I don’t know what it is.

    Is it that there is an expectation that key witnesses will choose not to testify and that by so doing somehow reinforce the secret nature of their decisions? If so, this still doesn’t strike me as being as effective as enforcing compliance.

  8. nathsays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:40 pm
    I’m not sure how much polling went into the state 3 tax cuts but this research indicates it was not that popular:

    https://essentialvision.com.au/attitudes-to-proposed-stage-3-tax-cuts

    Thanks for that reminder Nath. Those figures don’t surprise me at all. Why on earth would people on modest wages go into bat for the those on much higher incomes; particularly now with the price of just about everything on an upward trajectory, including interest rates. It just doesn’t make sense.

  9. Poll Bludger seems to be full of Rex Douglas, Nath and one or two others lecturing Albanese and Chalmers on Stage 3 tax cuts and other economic matters.
    I am surprised Rex didn’t get an invite to the jobs summit, as he seems to know more than the actual federal cabinet.

  10. ‘Cronus says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:57 pm

    Bludgers

    What are the tactics behind appointing a judge to investigate Morrison’s actions while not giving her the power and authority to enforce participation by key witnesses? I’m sure I’m missing something very obvious but I don’t know what it is.
    ….’
    ————————————
    1. Morrison has said that he would co-operate if the inquiry was fair.
    2. He now has the chance to co-operate.
    3. At interview this morning Albanese was asked why Bell was not given the power of the RC. Albanese’s answer was that he expected everyone to co-operate. He added that if there was any lack of co-operation there were other options… essentially the latter was a threat by Albanese that he will amp up the inquiry powers if Morrison does not co-operate.
    I assume that everyone will co-operate, that the holes will be identified and that legislation to fix the holes will be passed by Christmas.
    Both the Greens and the Coalition support the inquiry. The Coalition qualifies that by mumbling about witch hunts. The Greens want a full court press Royal Commission.
    Albanese seems to be steering a middle course between the extreme stunters.
    If the necessary legislation gets up by Christmas then, IMO, everyone else is going to look extreme and Albanese will look like a sensible adult with a safe pair of hands.

  11. If one has nothing better to do there is always the CPAC convention where assorted RWNJs will gather at a (so far) secret location in Sydney to tell each other how wonderful right-wing nutjobbery is.

    CPAC advertising claimed the convention was at Luna Park until the Luna Park people told CPAC to stop telling lies. Then CPAC said the location was secret to protect the poor little RW petals from “left wing cancel culture”. Obviously an event not to be missed!

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-26/luna-park-asks-cpac-to-remove-advertising-to-conference/101373412

  12. In the only poll that counts, 12% voted against the S3 tax cuts and for getting rid of negative gearing and for adding a carbon tax and for introducing an unspecified but swingeing wealth tax.

    These tax measures were part of an extremist package of measures that included building a million houses, getting rid of our jets, ships, artillery and tanks, killing off the almond, cotton, coal, beef, sheep, uranium, gas, olive, citrus and wine industries, and also stopping extinctions by 2030.

    It is a sad commentary that 12% of Australians were insane enough to buy that populist gish gallop of destruction.

    The net result is that 88% voted for the same level of taxes or fewer taxes.

    The unresolved problem is how to persuade the majority of Australians that more taxes would be a good thing all around.

  13. Player One @ Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:39 pm

    “Nor do I value politicians who can’t admit they made a really silly mistake and then refuse correct it.”

    This is most amusing coming from someone that admits neither error nor fault on Pollbludger. Carry on 😉

  14. Immigration minister Andrew Giles says the coalition “lost control of the visa system” and left almost one million visa applications on the table for him to deal with. Speaking at the Sydney Policy Lab today, Giles said “typically”, 40,000 to 80,000 people held a bridging visa at any point in time, but today, there are over 330,000 people on bridging visas.

    There are now more staff at the Department of Home Affairs working on visa processing and since the election, there are 180 new staff, another 140 being trained, and 150 more working on an overtime taskforce which has shifted the backlog from almost a million visa applications to around 900,000, he said.
    via Age blog

  15. Cud Chewer at 6.21 pm

    Here’s the ABC radio report (5 mins) that you heard; for others, it is worth hearing:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/long-covid-and-the-growing-costs-of-the-pandemic-/101378528

    Professor Andrew Baillie, Long-COVID Australia Collaboration (Sydney Uni) referred to one “lie”, namely the (Barnaby-Perrottet) line that Covid isn’t worse than a cold. The other falsehood common now is the Polyannish pretence that the pandemic is over. That is refuted in that story, but it will take much more than one story to dispel it.

    Australia is again one of several Covid hotspots in the world, visible on the NYT map at:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-cases.html

    The per capita death rate in Australia in the past fortnight is about twice that of New Zealand and South Korea, a bit less than Japan’s, half of Greece’s, just above Sweden’s (unsurprising, as the lack of any mitigating measures resembles Sweden early on, the pretence being vaccination alone is sufficient) and 5 times the world leader, Singapore.

    The existence of a big Covid wave in Japan and South Korea warns it’s not just winter.

    The only dubious point about the ABC story is the use of a PCR test vial for illustration. A year ago, during the Gladys-Delta wave, PCR tests were commonplace. Yet 2022 has been, in health terms, the year of the RATs, which seem to be increasingly unreliable. The common animal rat turns up regularly; the artificial RAT may be only 60% right.

  16. Bystander says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:58 pm
    nathsays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:40 pm
    I’m not sure how much polling went into the state 3 tax cuts but this research indicates it was not that popular:

    https://essentialvision.com.au/attitudes-to-proposed-stage-3-tax-cuts
    Thanks for that reminder Nath. Those figures don’t surprise me at all. Why on earth would people on modest wages go into bat for the those on much higher incomes; particularly now with the price of just about everything on an upward trajectory, including interest rates. It just doesn’t make sense.

    _______________________________________

    I’d be more impressed with a question that asked voters whether they would rather stage 3 tax cuts or x, y, z policies. Without any explanation of what ‘stage 3 tax cuts’ are. Because that’s the real world, not the world of the fart-brained concern trolls that infest this place.

  17. Boerwar

    Thanks, sounds fair enough although it’s difficult to imagine the Morrison we all know subjecting himself (remember, he thinks he’s God) to questioning? After all, as he said wtte ‘we couldn’t possibly understand his actions as none of us have been PM”. And surely Hurley will claim some sort of royal privilege.

    I guess that failure to comply with requests to appear run risks for the Coalition in terms of extending the investigation process. It will at least be interesting to watch the various responses and how it all plays out.

  18. Dr D
    I was discussing with OH the possible reasons why the Omicron wave seems to be receding in Australia ATM. We canvassed several possible reasons but really do not understand it at all.

  19. citizen @7:09pm

    Thanks for posting that. If I understand it then, the CPAC doesn’t want the “lefties” to cancel them, so they’re cancelling themselves by going secret? Too funny.

  20. Cronus
    Albanese is being reasonable with everyone.
    If a cleanskin like Bell reports publicly that Morrison is not co-operating then Albanese can reasonably amp up the draconian stuff.
    Either way, Albanese is being reasonable.
    The other delight (for moi) in all this is that Morrison will find himself having to answer to a woman for his cretinous assault on our democracy.

  21. TPOFsays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 7:22 pm
    Bystander says:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:58 pm
    nathsays:
    Friday, August 26, 2022 at 6:40 pm
    I’m not sure how much polling went into the state 3 tax cuts but this research indicates it was not that popular:

    https://essentialvision.com.au/attitudes-to-proposed-stage-3-tax-cuts
    Thanks for that reminder Nath. Those figures don’t surprise me at all. Why on earth would people on modest wages go into bat for the those on much higher incomes; particularly now with the price of just about everything on an upward trajectory, including interest rates. It just doesn’t make sense.

    _______________________________________

    I’d be more impressed with a question that asked voters whether they would rather stage 3 tax cuts or x, y, z policies. Without any explanation of what ‘stage 3 tax cuts’ are. Because that’s the real world, not the world of the fart-brained concern trolls that infest this place.

    .

    TPOF
    The figures that Nath reproduced were very relevant in that they were testing people’s attitudes to reducing the tax paid at the higher income levels. In large numbers they weren’t in favour of it.

    I really don’t understand the need of some people here to indulge in name calling rather than engaging in well argued political debate.

  22. Well the Green Trolls on here certainly seem very comfortable with breaking promises. Would hate to be in business or married to any of them.

  23. It is a relatively contained inquiry with not truckloads of documents so Virginia Bell AC probably thinks recorded meetings with relevant witnesses will suffice.

    Plus she, or AGS, will have the joy of wading through public submissions.

    A compulsive public or private hearing would entail representation, submissions and delay which is the present bane of ICAC

  24. Tax cuts.
    I recall 30 years ago a mate staying with me that I had previously met at university many years earlier say to me that he paid no income tax as he considered tax rates too high in Australia and therefore out of principle he avoided same.
    He was CEO of a large listed company.

  25. Boerwar at 7.27 pm and the continuing waves of Covid

    It’s hard to know because there is so little public emphasis on testing now, apart from the relative inaccuracy of negative RATs compared to PCRs. Throughout the pandemic there have been waves. In an important article in the Sat Paper on Jan 15-21 2022 (which they should make accessible to all as a public service), Prof Raina MacIntyre argued that Covid will keep coming in waves, so the pandemic will not be overcome.

    The underlying reason for that, apart from BA.4 and BA.5 getting easily around prior immunity, is the woeful effort at global vaccination. Most of Africa, and also PNG (shamefully for Australia) has a vaccination level of less than 20%. Apart from Africa and PNG, countries with very low vaccination levels (e.g. Ukraine) are in war zones. The Ukrainian rate was low before Putin’s war, but it hasn’t increased, unlike Russia’s.

    NZ had a second wave in late June for 2 months, which is dwindling now, but there is likely to be another wave, because the Reff in NZ is still 0.86. At the start of June the Covid per capita death rate in NZ was 230 per million, similar to Singapore on 234. Now Singapore has another small wave and is up to 267, while NZ is over double that at 538.

    It’s no secret why Singapore is the global leader – they still use mitigating measures.

  26. Dr J
    When I was a kid one of my uncles told me he wanted to pay lots of tax because this eould mean that he wss earning lots of money.

  27. You can’t have a hard core inquiry into the Morrison appointments because it would look too politically vindictive.

    As long as people earning less than $150K get the same, or more, changing the stage 3 tax cuts will be fine politically.

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