Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
Morning all. Thanks BK. Labor under Albo has been off to a hard working but pragmatic start which is good to see. Cutting the worst excesses of Morrison’s attempts to spend his way back into office is sensible, as would scrapping the high end tax cuts.
As I have said, non-power infrastructure spending should actually shrink too. This economic is the opposite of the 2008/09 GFC. Expanded spending in defence and power infrastructure will create jobs that engineering and construction workers can shift sideways into. In many cases they won’t even need to change employer. The large engineering firm I worked for has defence as well as infrastructure divisions, as do most large firms.
For those of us who have been following the US shit show closely over the past few years, the jan 6 hearings have merely confirmed what we already know.
It has still proved to be super interesting.
Seth Abramson
Why do I now believe Trump will be indicted? Because if you watched the hearing the House January 6 Committee just conducted, you understand that the current DOJ is *never* going to allow Trump to run the DOJ again. And Trump plans to announce that he’s running for POTUS in 2024.
Victoria says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 8:44 am
“For those of us who have been following the US shit show closely over the past few years, the jan 6 hearings have merely confirmed what we already know.
It has proved to be super interesting.”
And along with this year’s High Court rulings confirms America’s inexorable decline. There is only worse to come.
The flag vandal appears to be dictating Labor policy again…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-threaten-to-amend-budget-unless-government-dumps-top-end-tax-cuts-20220623-p5aw2f.html
So the Greens plan on refusing supply in the senate. This is going to get interesting.
frednk @ #757 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 8:53 am
No they’re not.
Greens leader Adam Bandt is preparing to fight the government over already-legislated tax cuts but has stopped short of threatening the passage of supply bills if Labor doesn’t dump them in its October budget.
The Greens threat is unfortunate. It would be best if the high end tax cuts went. Can’t happen now.
Cronus
It will take another year or so, but the USA will realign itself and get on a much better path.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 8:54 am
frednk @ #757 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 8:53 am
So the Greens plan on refusing supply in the senate. This is going to get interesting.
No they’re not.
Greens leader Adam Bandt is preparing to fight the government over already-legislated tax cuts but has stopped short of threatening the passage of supply bills if Labor doesn’t dump them in its October budget.
So why the press release? It’s a hill of beans. Adam Bandt is truly losing it.
Oh, so just another meaningless Green stunt, then….
I think this is a very sensible comment wrt The Greens’ stunt speech:
Scribbler
50 MINUTES AGO
NZ, with a progressive government, has a highest tax bracket of 39%, which kicks in at $180,000 NZD.
Having a 45% tax rate which kicks in at $200,000 AUD is not overly generous to high income earners.
Currently, high-earning PAYE taxpayers are paying a disproportionate share of the tax burden, while the true rich can avoid paying any income tax.
PAYE tax rates are actually not paid by rich business people, lawyers, multimillionaires, billionaires etc
They are paid by very hard-working PAYE taxpayers, like very senior public hospital doctors who work 70+ hour weeks saving lives, teaching, researching, being on call 24/7 etc.
A high income does not make you rich, especially when massively taxed. It is assets and net wealth which should be taxed properly. They are the true measure of wealth.
Belated thanks BK.
https://johnmenadue.com/david-solomon-government-benefits-from-oppositions-divisions/
Don’t think I accept the premise that the Coalition has more problems now than any time in the last 50 yrs. They were pretty dire after the 1983 defeat: Peacock and Howard jostling for leadership, then the ‘Joh for PM’ thing a few years later…
C@tmomma @ #763 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 8:59 am
I resemble this comment – and I am no longer on the high-salaried cattle truck, mearly a bulk-billing private practice peon.
UK Cartoons:
“Bullying and harassment remain persistent problems in Victoria’s Country Fire Authority, a new report shows, prompting the service’s management to apologise to anyone treated poorly, reports Benjamin Priess:
_____________________
Good on them for releasing it.
It certainly puts Andrews and Marshall to shame who pulled out all stops in order to suppress the Human Rights report into bullying and sexism within the MFB / Fire Rescue Victoria.
C@tmomma @ #730 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 7:08 am
As usual, the devil is in the detail.
The cost of generating the electricity we use is only between 25% and 50% of the total cost, depending on the precise source mix.
And of those generation costs, only a fraction is fuel cost – infrastructure cost is a major component, even for renewables. Just like fossil-fuelled plants, renewable infrastructure only has a limited life and requires regular ongoing maintenance. We haven’t had much of it long enough to have to pay these costs yet – but they will be potentially very significant (e.g. batteries may last only 10 years or so).
Also, in the future, carbon taxes will need to be increased if the generator’s mix still includes fossil fuels, and for all generators network costs will go up significantly as generation becomes more distributed. Then there is the proposed capacity market, which will add to everyone’s electricity costs.
And these breakdowns do not include profit, which may be separate for the generator and retailer, or they may be combined (for a ‘gentailer’).
In summary, generation costs may go down somewhat, but even if they go to zero (they wont, even for renewables), we will still be paying something like 75% of what we are paying now.
And if you think even that reduction is likely to be passed onto consumers in our broken electricity market, then I have a flagpole you may be interested in to put on top of the bridge you have probably just purchased.
I have to run some errands, but bookmarked for later.
J6C Hearings – Episodes #6, #5, #4, #3 (postponed), #2, #1 (deleted)
https://january6th.house.gov/legislation/hearings
Episode #6 (youtube)
https://youtu.be/Z4535-VW-bY
Perhaps because people earning $200k plus don’t require overly generous policies from the government.
No they don’t. They bear the exact same tax burden on their first $200k in income as anybody else. The higher rate only applies to their earnings above $200k, of which they still get to keep 55%. Which is still entirely more, in all circumstances, than anyone earning less than $200k/year gets to keep in their pockets.
So close those loopholes too. Completely separate issue.
And people who work two jobs, earning a shit salary for each one, aren’t hard working and doing useful things? If the logic is that tax breaks should be allocated according to how hard each person works, there are tons and tons of people on lower incomes who work just as hard and are at least as deserving.
Rhetorical flourish. The tax brackets are progressive. The only thing “massively taxed” is earnings in excess of $200k. Everything below that mark has been taxed at exactly the same rate that everyone else pays.
Given the evidence at today’s J6 hearing about the pressure placed upon the DOJ and several of its most senior officials, would this place the DOJ in a difficult position if the information presented suggests it has enough evidence to charge/prosecute Trump?
Cronus
Yes. Trump needs to be indicted.
“PAYE tax rates are actually not paid by rich business people, lawyers, multimillionaires, billionaires etc”
I don’t PAYE but I pay the same rates
Late Riser
When you watch the latest of the 6 Jan hearings you will see many more impressive Republican appointees who performed admirably according to their oaths of office.
Looks like Murdoch’s enthusiasm for renewable energy has evaporated.
citizen
Claire Lehmann is founding editor of Quillette.
Enough said!
Victoria says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 9:41 am
Cronus
“Yes. Trump needs to be indicted.”
Anything less would simply be a travesty of justice.
I think it was Fran Lebowitz who quipped:
No one *earns* a billion dollars. People *steal* a billion dollars.
She’s good value.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/jun/18/fran-lebowitz-happiest-realised-i-knew-how-to-read
BK says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 9:44 am
Late Riser
“When you watch the latest of the 6 Jan hearings you will see many more impressive Republican appointees who performed admirably according to their oaths of office.”
Agreed, and I found today’s evidence to be absolutely damning (as a non-legal expert) in its consistency, constancy and breadth of reach.
”
BKsays:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 9:57 am
citizen
Claire Lehmann is founding editor of Quillette.
Enough said!
”
BK
Not enough for me. What is a Quillette?
G’day Bludgers.
After a 16 hour transit that went smoother than I expected, I’m now in place in Malaysia for at least the next 3 months. 🙂
BK
The sheer scale of the attempt to pervert the course of justice (the election outcome) by Trump and numerous officials is breathtaking. Kudos to the DOJ and it’s GOP bureaucrats for fighting back.
citizen
Do they provide any genuine evidence to support the ridiculous cost claim?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/22/morgan-53-47-to-labor-open-thread/comment-page-16/#comment-3943052
+1
Let’s see if state land tax goes where stamp duty didn’t
More GST less income tax.
Put caps on deductions.
The minimum org tax should help also.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/24/pandoras-box-experts-say-queenslands-windfall-from-coal-royalties-could-set-a-precedent
Please, just do it. Queenslanders may be a bit strange………… there is something in the water there that affects their brains on politics……..but dealing with royalties this way is a good idea. Hope the W.A. govt has a good look at this regarding Gas, Iron Ore.
Gina will squeal. 🙂
Cross-post from t’other thread
Tories have lost two local by-elections tonight so far .. one to Labour (Harlow, Essex), one to Lib Dems (Waverley, Surrey) 🙂
_________________________________________________________
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Turnout in Wakefield expected shortly. Akef Akbar (Ind candidate) is expected to save his deposit and come third
__________________________________________________________
Ben Walker
@BNHWalker
·
1h
Labour staffer:
“We did Ossett [the most Tory town in Wakefield] to death”
“Best set of data I’ve seen at a by-election”
________________________________________________________
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Tiverton and Honiton: The more boxes that have opened at the count, the more positive the Lib Dems have been in their briefings to the media
_________________________________________________________
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
11m
Wakefield, turnout:
39.1% (-24.5)
citizen @ #775 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 9:53 am
I wonder if she is related to Bruce?
Cronussays:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 10:09 am
Yes, their criteria would be interesting.
What do they mean by “power the whole of Australia”?
Nicely put from the SMH editorial; thanks BK.
Speaking of, has anyone seen the most qualified in the world for Trade and Investment Commissioner to New York recently?
The Greens could be useful in the Senate by ‘forcing’ Albo to cancel the tax cuts.
I am off to an Aboriginal Community in the Fitzroy Crossing WA for a month. I am packing Summer clothes while I am rugged up in Adelaide.
Barney in Cherating @ #781 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 10:07 am
Nicely planned. It seems you’ve slotted into the much appreciated dry season.
And it’s turtle time!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherating
citizen at 9:53 am
Don’t worry they’ll be believing it again soon. Or likely being a bit of a Schrodinger’s Cat on the issue. . While the Rupert media were rampaging here against all things ‘climate change’ back in the ‘Noughties’ Rupert was proudly declaring News Corp was going ‘carbon neutral’at the AGM. Young James meanwhile…………. .
.
Murdoch vows to turn News International green
James Murdoch has stamped his green credentials on News International just a month after joining from BSkyB with a pledge to take the operation carbon neutral.
Murdoch, the driving force behind BSkyB’s move to carbon neutrality in 2006, described the initiative as a “major milestone” that marked the beginning of the News Corporation-owned newspaper operation’s commitment to reduce its impact on climate change.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2008/jan/10/newscorporation.mediabusiness
Which Brand Bandt is it today? He’s all over the place like a mad dog shitting.
Friendly Bandt?
Constructive Bandt?
Collaborative Bandt?
Stunting Bandt?
Bullyboy Bandt?
Threatening Bandt?
Warning Bandt?
Dummy spitting Bandt?
‘puffytmd says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 10:23 am
The Greens could be useful in the Senate by ‘forcing’ Albo to cancel the tax cuts.
I am off to an Aboriginal Community in the Fitzroy Crossing WA for a month. I am packing Summer clothes while I am rugged up in Adelaide.’
================================
Good on you, Puffy. Bon voyage.
The Coalition would love the Greens to force Labor to do anything at all. Bandt and Dutton are on the same page there. In the absence of anything real it would assuage their profound sense of relevance deprivation.
Boerwar says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 10:49 am
Which Brand Bandt is it today? He’s all over the place like a mad dog shitting.
________
Just letting you know I’m going out for the rest of the day. I get back home around 4 and will look through your 300 posts then…. actually I’ve changed my mind.
Barney in Cherating says:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 10:18 am
Cronussays:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 10:09 am
citizen
“Do they provide any genuine evidence to support the ridiculous cost claim?
Yes, their criteria would be interesting.
What do they mean by “power the whole of Australia”?”
Enjoy your Malaysian soirée. I suspect there will be a lot of motherhood statements by Lehman, misrepresentations and avoidance of hidden fossil fuel costs, just to name a few. Her magazine could well be described as ‘notorious’ and certainly questionable.
nath
So you’ve decided to stay in ?
Before I go I have to say what a great tribute to Dan Andrews that James Merlino gave out. I try to maintain a critical eye on the Vic government but the alternative is not even worth thinking about.
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 10:16 am
citizen @ #775 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 9:53 am
Looks like Murdoch’s enthusiasm for renewable energy has evaporated.
Energy crisis won’t be solved by wind and sun
The battery storage required to power the whole of Australia has been estimated to cost $6.5 trillion. If this is a cost-effective solution, then God help us all.
By CLAIRE LEHMANN (Oz headline)
I wonder if she is related to Bruce?
”
Do you mean Bruce Lehrmann?
So you’ve decided to stay in ?
I was hoping he/she got lost !.
After all that Bill Shorten rubbish !.