Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

The first published voting intention poll since the election credits both major parties with higher primary votes than they recorded last month, for one reason or another.

Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.

The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.

This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,923 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Holdenhillbilly @ #696 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 9:02 pm

    Britain introduced a new tranche of trade sanctions against Russia on Thursday, a notice published on the government website said.

    The ‘Notice to Exporters’ listed new measures including prohibitions on the export to Russia of a range of goods and technology, the export of jet fuel, and the export of sterling or EU denominated banknotes.

    It also said there were new prohibitions on the provision of technical assistance, and financial services, funds, and brokering services relating to iron and steel imports.

    When Boris Johnson asks the Queen to revoke the peerage of Evgeny Lebedev, then I’ll know the UK is serious.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/apr/28/tories-missing-deadline-publishing-mi5-evgeny-lebedev-advice

  2. I know it’s rather crass, but I do like a good newspaper headline. “Jerry Legs It” with the accompanying picture brought a smile to my dial.

    The Telegraph’s “A Bundle Of Joyce” and it’s accompanying picture remains my favourite however.

  3. 😯 FMD there are some evil people in the world!

    A man and a woman have been charged with conspiring to arrange to bring a child to the UK to harvest organs, the Metropolitan police said.

    Beatrice Nwanneka Ekweremadu, 55, and Ike Ekweremadu, 60, from Nigeria, are charged with conspiracy to harvest organs.

    The charges involve arranging or facilitating travel of another person with a view to exploitation, namely organ harvesting, the Met said in a statement.

    Both have been remanded in custody and will appear at Uxbridge magistrates court later on Thursday.

    The child involved has been safeguarded, according to the Met.

    The investigation was launched after detectives were alerted to potential offences under modern slavery legislation in May 2022, the force said.

    No more details were available because criminal proceedings are under way.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/23/man-woman-charged-trying-bring-child-uk-harvest-organs

  4. Cabinet ministers have started work on spending cuts in the federal budget after identifying programs they want to scrap, sparking a warning to Australians to prepare for curbs on outlays to bring the nation’s finances under control.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the Labor government’s first budget would “really put the brakes on” federal spending to address problems highlighted by the expenditure review committee of federal cabinet.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/brakes-on-spending-albanese-warns-of-budget-cuts-20220623-p5aw7s.html

  5. Aaron newton @ #590 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 5:55 pm

    to be fair to bandt he has two indiginous senaters Thorpe and Darinda cox who was actualy a former wa police officer which goes against bws view of greens as radicle anikists plus Shoebridge who has a strong relaetionship with aboriginal comunity in nsw and was a former loyer representingtrade unions and tasmanian sen mckim who served in a labor greens cabenit including education and corections minister

    I think Bandt long term has issues. Shoebridge is a much more viable leader than Bandt post the flag dispute. Shoebridge also has a strong reputation on working with NSW Labor i.e the NSW upper house inquiry into the Friendlyjordies/fixated persons unit.

    If I was a Greens supporter (Which I am not) I think Shoebridge offers a safer pair of hands that could help that party appeal to more people.

  6. Amid mounting pressure inside Iran over the recent string of assassinations of nuclear scientists and high-ranking military officers, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Intelligence Organization, Hossein Taib, has been sacked, oppositionist media outlet Iran International reported on Thursday.

  7. As if anyone who supports the Greens cares the slightest bit about the flag thing. They either agree that the flag sucks or they don’t care. Bandt just had to do better than the black wiggle Di Natale and he resoundingly did. Shoebridge is a good guy (and a loss to NSW state politics) but there isn’t any appetite for leadershit right now.

    P.S. someone was accusing me of comparing the Australian flag to the swastika because I posted the picture of the Australian troops in Afghanistan flying the nazi flag (hardly the worst thing they did there). I wasn’t making that comparison, I was just disagreeing with point that we ought to care what the troops think about flags as if they have any special importance.

  8. Watermelon,
    You don’t speak for all greens, the onese I spoke too were besides themselves that Adam Bandt would set the greens back like that. It was a divisive act, designed to create the effect it’s got. If the greens want to grow they need to accept a wider view of the world. Like you know, where 90% of the rest of the electorate is living.

  9. Holden Hillbilly
    “ Cabinet ministers have started work on spending cuts in the federal budget after identifying programs they want to scrap, sparking a warning to Australians to prepare for curbs on outlays to bring the nation’s finances under control.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the Labor government’s first budget would “really put the brakes on” federal spending to address problems highlighted by the expenditure review committee of federal cabinet.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/brakes-on-spending-albanese-warns-of-budget-cuts-20220623-p5aw7s.html

    To be honest I am relieved to hear Albo intends to do this. The longer it is put off the harder it will get. Frydendebt’s last budget was a shameless attempt to buy re-election which had all but given up responsible government.

    There are lots of areas of spending where large cuts could be made. I have listed several in defence where billions could be cut with almost no loss in capability.

    Even in my own field (transport infrastructure) there are too many large “mega-projects” costing billions and yet not meeting economic justification criteria. Barnaby Joyce’s inland rail line is a wasteful piece of pork. It could be trimmed if not cut entirely. $10 billion saved.

    In Adelaide the NS corridor is planned as a bloated six lane freeway. Why? Four lanes would move the traffic. The scope and cost could be cut in half. $5 billion saved. Better yet, cancel it and go back to the rail and tram projects proposed under Gillard but cancelled by Abbott.

    There is a shortage of workers, not jobs in building right now. We need more houses, not roads. Albo could safely cut transport capital expenditure 25% with little harm done to employment or the economy.


  10. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 9:19 pm
    FMD there are some evil people in the world!

    A man and a woman have been charged with conspiring to arrange to bring a child to the UK to harvest organs, the Metropolitan police said.
    ………

    C@tmomma
    This may be a surprise to you. But last weekend I saw a movie in which the scene was supposed to have happened in 1998 where a guy tricked the parents of a boy to send the boy with him to US to act in a movie. But the police found out just before departure to US that the guy was about take a bunch of kids to US to sell them to guys, who will harvest their organs and arrest him.


  11. Victoriasays:
    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 9:08 pm
    Chris Minns

    #BREAKING Despite Dominic Perrottet claiming that Barilaro’s appointment was determined by a global talent firm and not by a Minister.

    Emails reveal that this firm was told to halt the search.

    And that it’d be dealt with as an “internal matter” and a “ministerial appointment”

    Will DoPe resign as Premier for misleading the public (to put it mildly) about Barilaro appointment as NSW Trade Commissioner?

    Libs seriously have a knack to shoot themselves in the foot.

  12. I don’t mind Farrell. He does a good job of pointing out limitations at the same time as opportunities. It will be interesting to see if it pans out. Long term thing though.

  13. Watermelon: “As if anyone who supports the Greens cares the slightest bit about the flag thing.”

    If the greens didn’t care, they wouldn’t be spending so much time telling people how much they didn’t care.

  14. Gotta admit Socrates, these days working with a lot of transport/infrastructure development, there are a bunch of things that could be re-allocated. But your contention that we should be directing resources to building more houses?

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/renting/87000-queensland-properties-empty-despite-rental-shortage/news-story/fd36eefacc14c7b6da2aab4735c1e45c

    This reality is playing out in every state. The last time it was measured, there were 70K empty houses in Melbourne. You can actually walk around Melbourne and see them if you care to look, because it’s such a large percentage that they’re everywhere. But there are some suburbs that have more than others. It’s a concern. People have kept houses ready for sale because of the expectation that prices of the houses would continue to go up. Will they continue to go up? Who knows. If they do, it won’t make any difference how much money you spend making new ones, because they won’t be used for the people that need them. The exact same dynamics that have led to the existing situation will not have changed. They’re seen as capital vehicles used to consolidate wealth. If they don’t continue to rise in price, then we’ll suddenly have a lot of houses for sale, and that presents its own problems.

    One thing for sure though, when you have hundreds of thousands of houses that are empty in a market, the problem isn’t with supply.

  15. Pi,
    Pretty simple non offensive tax change to fix that. No negative gearing if the house is vaccant for more than 2 months a year. And toss in a vaccant tax at 50% market rent for any house that isn’t being lived in. (They can detect them from the power meters and phoneline usage!)

    Great new source of revenue and people would rather deal with the troubles of being a landlord than actually pay a tax they can so easily not pay.

  16. My dad, returned serviceman deceased many years was neutral with regard to the flag.
    When I hear talk about ‘going into battle’ it reminds me of Blackadder and Monty Python.
    Not really relevant for submariners, fighter pilots and drone operators, if Australia decides to change it I won’t lose any sleep as a result.

  17. ‘British Airways (BA) workers at Heathrow have voted to strike during the school summer holidays, in a move set to cause more travel chaos as the industry struggles to recover from the COVID pandemic .. members of the GMB and Unite unions overwhelmingly supported the prospect of industrial action over pay with 95% of those voting, at both unions, backing strikes on turnouts of 81% and 63% respectively’

    https://news.sky.com/story/british-airways-workers-at-heathrow-vote-to-strike-during-school-summer-holidays-12639088

  18. Bob Carr’s Tweet on the Barilaro Affair:

    I never created such a job when I was Premier because I knew an expensive NY office won’t deliver a single new trade contract or dollop of investment. Savvy US business will make its own decisions, not listen to a retired hack spruiking payroll tax concessions. Expensive joke.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    David Crowe tells us that cabinet ministers have started work on spending cuts in the federal budget after identifying programs they want to scrap, sparking a warning to Australians to prepare for curbs on outlays to bring the nation’s finances under control. Has to be done.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/brakes-on-spending-albanese-warns-of-budget-cuts-20220623-p5aw7s.html
    Katina Curtis reports that the Greens are threatening to amend budget unless the government dumps the top-end tax cuts. (They could be doing Albanese a favour here).
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-threaten-to-amend-budget-unless-government-dumps-top-end-tax-cuts-20220623-p5aw2f.html
    Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce, at the time the Coalition lost the May election, were the most unpopular party leaders since the Australian Election Study began in 1987. Paul Karp outlines the findings of the study.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/24/scott-morrison-and-barnaby-joyce-were-most-unpopular-leaders-at-election-since-1987-study-shows
    ACTU secretary Sally McManus says low-paid workers should keep pushing for wage rises that match inflation, claiming that the rising cost of living is being driven by profits, not pay increases, and that warnings of a 1970s-style wage price spiral are “total Boomer fantasy”, write Phil Coorey and John Kehoe.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/actu-concedes-on-5pc-wages-20220622-p5avnk
    The SMH’s editorial says that the Barilaro’s US post is a bad look for the NSW Coalition.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/barilaro-s-us-post-is-a-bad-look-for-nsw-coalition-20220623-p5aw54.html
    Josh Butler reports that Anthony Albanese has confirmed he will visit France to meet President Emmanuel Macron, and is considering travelling to Ukraine, during next week’s trip to Europe for the NATO summit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/23/albanese-to-meet-macron-in-paris-for-important-reset-of-australias-relationship-with-france
    Michelle Grattan tells us how Anthony Albanese has a lot on the go in the ‘back office’ of government.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-anthony-albanese-has-a-lot-on-the-go-in-the-back-office-of-government-185695
    The appointments announced by the Prime Minister on Wednesday 22 June seem mostly sensible, offering the APS a more professional leadership which can both provide strong support for the Government and demonstrate its impartiality in its policy advising and management of programs, explains Andrew Podger.
    https://johnmenadue.com/new-heads-of-departments-in-canberra/
    The deputy opposition leader, Sussan Ley, has backed Peter Dutton’s decision to oppose government legislation to cut emissions by 43% by 2030, but signalled the Coalition’s climate policy could shift before the next federal election. Useless!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/24/sussan-ley-backs-peter-duttons-decision-to-oppose-emissions-legislation-but-signals-future-room-for-change
    Coalition MPs are in the middle of a post-defeat debate over climate targets, but there appears to be a large Paris-shaped blind spot in their current commentary, writes Graham Readfearn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/23/while-coalition-reheats-its-climate-mess-albanese-government-locks-in-australias-43-emissions-cut
    The new Albanese Labor Government is facing a host of difficult problems that will thoroughly test its capacity to govern, but politically it is in an enviable position enjoyed by none of its predecessors in the past half a century and more, writes David Solomon who says that Albanese will benefit from the Opposition’s divisions.
    https://johnmenadue.com/david-solomon-government-benefits-from-oppositions-divisions/
    Australians are about to discover whether Anthony Albanese can deliver on one of the most persuasive messages in his pitch to become prime minister: the idea that he can lead a country that makes things again, writes David Crowe who says it could be costly and risky, but so could neglecting the challenge.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/make-or-brake-the-critical-test-for-albanese-s-manufacturing-vision-20220623-p5avxk.html
    John Menadue reckons the Teals will force the Greens to get smart at last.
    https://johnmenadue.com/geoff-ebbs-greens-get-smart/
    Network 10 has hit out at “inaccurate and unfair” reporting on Lisa Wilkinson’s role in the trial of Brittany Higgins’ alleged rapist after the media personality was asked to give prosecutors a written undertaking not to comment further about the case.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-trial-date-set-for-bruce-lehrmann-20220623-p5avxn.html
    The risk of crazy-high wholesale power prices has not gone away despite the restart of coal power units that mean the market suspension may end today, explains Angela Macdonald-Smith.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/prices-highly-volatile-as-nem-resumption-nears-20220623-p5aw0j
    Professors Jenny Gore and Nicole Mockler say that teachers have become the fall guys for a failing education system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/teachers-the-fall-guys-for-a-failing-system-20220623-p5avxb.html
    The central purpose of government in a democracy is to be the role model for, and protector of, equality and freedom and our associated human rights. They should set an ethical standard for the people to emulate, writes Kaye Lee.
    https://theaimn.com/governments-are-the-cause-of-many-of-our-problems-they-could-also-easily-solve-them/
    At least 31 Aboriginal families are struggling to pay for funerals for loved ones who have died since the collapse of the funeral business ACBF-Youpla, amid claims that people are collecting aluminium cans to raise money for burials.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/24/youpla-funeral-fund-collapse-leaves-31-aboriginal-families-struggling-to-pay-for-burials
    Bullying and harassment remain persistent problems in Victoria’s Country Fire Authority, a new report shows, prompting the service’s management to apologise to anyone treated poorly, reports Benjamin Priess.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/cfa-review-highlights-ongoing-bullying-harassment-20220623-p5avy1.html
    While Russia’s economy has been crippled by sanctions, fears are growing that the next phase of the financial battle will be more painful for Europe, explains Tom Rees.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/europe-and-russia-are-both-losing-this-financial-war-20220621-p5av9h.html
    The RBA and the US Federal Reserve Board are reading from the same playbook. They will do whatever it takes to bring inflation under control, even if it means recessions, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/recession-alarm-bells-are-ringing-as-the-war-on-inflation-escalates-20220623-p5avxj.html
    Parents at St Catherine’s School are joining forces with families from other Anglican schools to fight a requirement for incoming principals to sign a statement that they believe marriage is between a man and a woman. Jordan Baker reports that the current St Catherine’s principal leaves at the end of the year, and the relatively new rule for diocese-run schools will require her replacement – who is appointed by a council dominated by representatives of the conservative Anglican Church Diocese of Sydney, which rejects gay marriage – to sign the document.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/st-catherine-s-parents-enlist-more-schools-to-fight-same-sex-marriage-statement-20220622-p5avv6.html
    A Maserati-driving entrepreneur and his exciting new property play have reeled in Stockland and Mirvac, and a posse of media and investment bankers, but is all as it seems? Michael West checks out the proposal to float Bricklet on the share market.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/ocean-view-property-with-carpark-views-exciting-asx-float-a-tough-sell-then-theres-title/
    Urban, educated young people in China are increasingly disillusioned about the country’s future. Harsh lockdowns have exposed a burgeoning mood of disquiet, writes Yun Jiang.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/lockdowns-spark-signs-of-defiance-among-china-s-restless-youth-20220609-p5asei.html
    Kevin Rudd has written an op-ed in which he says the war in Ukraine won’t change Xi’s plans for Taiwan.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/rudd-the-war-in-ukraine-won-t-change-xi-s-plans-for-taiwan-20220621-p5avbk
    The January 6 committee can help separate the former US president from elites, donors, and those who support him because they don’t like the alternative, writes Juliette Kayyem.
    https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/the-message-from-the-capitol-riot-hearing-trump-has-peaked-20220621-p5avei
    In a major expansion of gun rights, the Supreme Court said Americans have a right to carry firearms in public for self-defence, a ruling likely to lead to more people legally armed in cities and beyond. The ruling yesterday came with recent mass shootings fresh in the nation’s mind and gun control being debated in Congress and states. The country is f****d!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/gun-rights-expanded-in-us-after-supreme-court-overturns-ny-handgun-law-20220624-p5aw8h.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark David

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US









  20. Socrates says:
    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 10:46 pm
    ….
    There is a shortage of workers, not jobs in building right now. We need more houses, not roads. Albo could safely cut transport capital expenditure 25% with little harm done to employment or the economy.

    We have inflation which basically means demand is exceeding supply. Cutting projects that make no economic sense sure beats the recession the reserve bank has planned for us.

  21. Thanks BK. From that Australian Electoral Study:

    The survey also found that voters who supported teal independents were mainly former supporters of Labor and the Greens, not the Coalition.

    Strategic voting in Liberal seats to ensure the sitting member was ousted?

  22. Further reducing demand by removing the top end tax cuts sure beats restricting low end wage rises needed to keep up with inflation.

  23. Jaeger @ #717 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 11:42 pm

    Interesting idea for reducing the cost of accessing geothermal energy, if the real world tests check out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8sjdOjNxIE

    As one of our esteemed Bludger Lunchers told us, in the future energy will be free, or virtually free I guess except for transmission costs, and that will set us free as a nation to make whatever we want here or create our own little businesses to send our value added products to the world. Australia is an innovative nation, plus we have abundant resources. We just have to organise the transition.


  24. The survey also found that voters who supported teal independents were mainly former supporters of Labor and the Greens, not the Coalition.

    Why a survey? You can work that out by looking at the voting statistics, and like it or not for the Liberals and the press that doesn’t seem to be able to accept Labor won, the Liberal vote went down along with the Labor and the Greens.

    What is really amazing is the writer seems to think the average voter doesn’t understand preferential voting and accept Labor and Green voters are smart enough to strategically vote.

    There are reasons the Greens are on notice, but this isn’t one of them.


  25. C@tmomma says:

    As one of our esteemed Bludger Lunchers told us, in the future energy will be free,


    It will never be free as all this infrastructure we are installing has to be payed for, just like it does if we built coal fired power stations. The fuel cost will be zero which is why Gas and Coal has no future, no matter how much the Liberals and Greens chant otherwise.

  26. Watermelon

    ‘As if anyone who supports the Greens cares the slightest bit about the flag thing.’

    So the Greens don’t want to grow their vote? Fine.

    ‘They either agree that the flag sucks or they don’t care. ‘

    Whether the flag sucks or not is not the issue. Whether Greens voters care or not is not the issue.

    It’s also a bit contradictory to remove a flag because standing in front of it might offend some people and then say that no one cares whether you stand in front of it or not.

  27. Frednk @ #607 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 7:18 am


    C@tmomma says:

    As one of our esteemed Bludger Lunchers told us, in the future energy will be free,


    It will never be free as all this infrastructure we are installing has to be payed for, just like it does if we built coal fired power station. The fuel cost will be zero which is why Gas and Coal has no future, no matter how much the Liberals and Greens chant otherwise.

    That’s why I added ‘except for Transmission costs’. Which you were supposed to work out for yourself meant maintaining the poles and wires and electricity sub-stations and power plants.

    However, there will also be in the future plenty of Community Batteries and home-based energy-generating options.


  28. Steve777says:
    Friday, June 24, 2022 at 6:36 am
    Bob Carr’s Tweet on the Barilaro Affair:

    I never created such a job when I was Premier because I knew an expensive NY office won’t deliver a single new trade contract or dollop of investment. Savvy US business will make its own decisions, not listen to a retired hack spruiking payroll tax concessions. Expensive joke.

    It may not ‘deliver a single new trade contract or dollop of investment’ but it certainly delivered a contract from government and retirement investment for Barilaro after political retirement. 🙂

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, June 24, 2022 at 7:08 am
    Jaeger @ #717 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 11:42 pm

    Interesting idea for reducing the cost of accessing geothermal energy, if the real world tests check out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8sjdOjNxIE
    “As one of our esteemed Bludger Lunchers told us, in the future energy will be free, or virtually free I guess except for transmission costs, and that will set us free as a nation to make whatever we want here or create our own little businesses to send our value added products to the world. Australia is an innovative nation, plus we have abundant resources. We just have to organise the transition.”

    +1, very cheap energy equals cheap manufacturing, so much to gain.

  30. Re Confessions @7:02

    ”Strategic voting in Liberal seats to ensure the sitting member was ousted?”

    In my case yes. In North Sydney, the Labor vote in the House was about 21.5%, in the Senate about 28.4%, so that suggests that maybe about 7,000 other Labor voters in North Sydney had the same idea. Swing against Labor in North Sydney was 3.66%, in spite of a good local candidate and absence of controversy or bad press. This is roughly equal and opposite to the national swing to Labor, which again suggests tactical voting of about 7% in North Sydney.

  31. Cronus says:
    Friday, June 24, 2022 at 7:40 am
    “ in the future energy will be free, or virtually free I guess except for transmission costs”

    That’s assuming some charitable soul decides to gift the wind/ solar generation farms.

  32. Former PM Scott Morrison and his creepy mate George Christensen have reached out to their newly single mate, Rupert Murdoch to invite him away to a boys weekend in the Philippino capital of Manilla.

    ”Scott and I’s boys weekends tend to get a bit loose and uh crazy,” said the former Member for Manila George Christensen. ”So, Rupert get ready for a weekend of fun and remember the golden rule.”

    ”What happens in Manila, stays in Manila!”

    https://theunaustralian.net/2022/06/24/scomo-his-creepy-mate-invite-newly-single-rupert-to-a-boys-weekend-in-manilla/

  33. “ Washington: In a major expansion of gun rights, the Supreme Court said Americans have a right to carry firearms in public for self-defence, a ruling likely to lead to more people legally armed in cities and beyond. The ruling on Thursday (US time) came with recent mass shootings fresh in the nation’s mind and gun control being debated in Congress and states.”

    Excellent, well that that should help …….. not. What a bunch of lunatics. America has much more to fear from its own than from terrorists or foreign powers. They really are on a path to self-destruction.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/gun-rights-expanded-in-us-after-supreme-court-overturns-ny-handgun-law-20220624-p5aw8h.html

  34. Holdenhillbilly @ #616 Friday, June 24th, 2022 – 8:17 am

    Former PM Scott Morrison and his creepy mate George Christensen have reached out to their newly single mate, Rupert Murdoch to invite him away to a boys weekend in the Philippino capital of Manilla.

    ”Scott and I’s boys weekends tend to get a bit loose and uh crazy,” said the former Member for Manila George Christensen. ”So, Rupert get ready for a weekend of fun and remember the golden rule.”

    ”What happens in Manila, stays in Manila!”

    https://theunaustralian.net/2022/06/24/scomo-his-creepy-mate-invite-newly-single-rupert-to-a-boys-weekend-in-manilla/

    Loose units! 😆

  35. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/22/morgan-53-47-to-labor-open-thread/comment-page-15/#comment-3943018

    I reckon removing the colonial Union Jack from the flag is overdue given the Australia Act(s) of 1986 …, as part of Australia becoming more cosmopolitan, multi-cultural and less white v black

    So let’s have the TRC, referendums, rejig, CtG/ SWF, end to affirmative action … whether you or your family came here by plane, boat or landbridge, I’d don’t think some pigs are more equal than others.

  36. Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce, at the time the Coalition lost the May election, were the most unpopular party leaders since the Australian Election Study began in 1987.

    The survey also found that voters who supported teal independents were mainly former supporters of Labor and the Greens, not the Coalition.

    According to the ANU poll, voters on average rated Morrison 3.6 on a 10 point scale of popularity, down from 5.1 after the 2019 election.

    Joyce was rated just 3 out of 10 in May 2022. Both Coalition leaders scored slightly higher with their own voters: 6.8 for Morrison and 5 for Joyce.

    Anthony Albanese was “moderately popular” across the electorate with a score of 5.6, up to 7.4 among Labor voters.

    Morrison’s score of 3.6 makes him the most unpopular Liberal leader since the AES began, followed by Andrew Peacock in 1990 (3.9) and Tony Abbott in 2014 (4.3).

    Joyce was the lowest of any leader in that time, although the Nationals leaders in 1987 and 1990 scored 3.6, on par with Morrison.

    Albanese rated lower than Bob Hawke in 1987 (6.2), Kim Beazley in 1998 (6.1) and Kevin Rudd in 2007 (6.3), but otherwise beat all other Labor leaders’ popularity at the time of the elections since 1987.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/24/scott-morrison-and-barnaby-joyce-were-most-unpopular-leaders-at-election-since-1987-study-shows?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  37. So shit sandwich scotty was more unpopular than Paul Keating, wow, how will the trolls spin that one?… Also, why are the american cartoons always so shit?

  38. #weatheronPB
    My window frames bright mist.
    Outside, its damp embrace steals my warmth,
    but promises blue sky, soon.

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