Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

The first published voting intention poll since the election credits both major parties with higher primary votes than they recorded last month, for one reason or another.

Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.

The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.

This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,923 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 13 of 39
1 12 13 14 39
  1. Cronus @ #598 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 6:06 pm

    Late Riser

    I agree re the American attitude to their flag and their devotion to it is almost religious. Seems to work for them but I wonder if it doesn’t exacerbate nationalism within the nation at times.

    It does. If you listen carefully to the J6C hearings it’s not hard to hear the wounded pride and the unwavering conviction of exceptionalism.

  2. When it comes to the flags the Greens are seeking to divide when the Aborigines proper are trying to build consensus for a referendum.

  3. Andrew_Earlwood says

    ….

    Alex Smith really is non stop for the Libs. It really is quite extraordinary. As much as Labor points to News Corp as having an agenda Channel 9 (on tv with Lizzie Daniels, paper with Smith and radio with Hadley etc) are just as bad.

  4. “ We have trams.
    We wear shorts.
    We also have Sydney Harbour:”

    Cultcha? We have cultcha coming out of our arse! Leichhardt. Cabramatta. Newtown. Chinatown. Five Dock. Summer Hill. Campsite. Harris Park. You name it, Sydney’s got it.

    Edited to add: Marrickville. A hotpot of wine bars, clubs, modern Asian fusion eateries and the craft beer capital of the universe. Albo lives there! AND .. it still has an industrial employment base … and a kick arse public library … and Henson Oval. Melbourne? How very … meh!

  5. poroti

    Ha ha. 🙂 (The star spangled banner is the one. You can skip the alternates. The construction is quite flexible. For example, each state gets a star. As states were added the flag was updated.)

  6. C@tmomma says:

    We also have Sydney Harbour:
    _______
    Sydney Harbour is a shallow pool compared to the might of Port Phillip Bay which could shelter the navies of every nation on the planet.

  7. Ven @ #584 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 5:38 pm


    yabbasays:
    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 4:19 pm
    Ven @ #506 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 3:39 pm
    ………….
    ………..
    Did the Egyptian and Ethiopian colonisations count as colonisation? Did the English, French and Italians really exploit the country, or, mostly, develop it? Did a country of Somalia exist before colonisation, or just a set of fiefdoms run by combative muslim sheiks? Well?

    Colonisation of Africa:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonisation_of_Africa

    When these colonial countries left they created countries with multi ethnic tribes, who did not have amicable relationships between them.

    Good. You are learning. Keep it up. Its very complicated, and all generalisations are incorrect (including that one).

    A clue. The area covered by the current boundaries of Somalia has been, for at least many hundreds of years, occupied by around four ‘noble’ (originally nomadic) and 3 or 4 ‘sad’ (settled, farmer) main clans. These are further subdivided into literally hundreds of subclans, in hierarchies, and there are complex traditions of intermarriage, and preferred associations, and ongoing rivalries.

    But, of course, colonisation was bad, and our current interference would be / is desirable. Or not. Or whatever.

  8. “ Sydney Harbour is a shallow pool compared to the might of Port Phillip Bay which could shelter the navies of every nation on the planet.”

    Lols. Sydney Harbour was the actual home port of the two most powerful navies of WW2 in 1944/45.

  9. Sydney harbour is a lot deeper than Port Phillip Bay. Perhaps there is some sense in one being called a harbour and the other just a mere bay.

    On flags….
    Interestingly, the eureka stockade flag borrowed from the Australian Federation flag that flew from the 1830s for many decades.

  10. Cultcha? We have cultcha coming out of our arse! Leichhardt. Cabramatta. Newtown. Chinatown. Five Dock. Summer Hill. Campsite. Harris Park. You name it, Sydney’s got it.

    The Shire…

  11. AE

    Constance another Liberal MP who says the party has a problem.

    What has he been doing for the last 20 years? Why does he only see a problem after a defeat?

    I just wish there was one hack who would ask one of these people that question.

  12. Who cares about salt when us Melbournian’s have the mighty Yarra River?
    And beware there is still a cannon at Point Nepean.

  13. Late Riser says:
    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 6:02 pm
    Cronus, re flags

    The US flag is a symbol of independence won in battle. It is a revolutionary flag. Children are formally taught its history and reminded regularly of its relevance. In some ways it’s a religious symbol that must not be desecrated. It symbolises the faith that Americans have in their republic. If I can be poetic for a moment, it isn’t so much a piece of coloured fabric as it is a symbol woven into the fabric of its society (along with other stuff).
    ————-
    How nauseating!

    The irony, which would of course be lost on Christian Americans, is that early Christians died rather than burn incense to the honour of the Emperor which was arguably much less “religious” than USA flag worship. 🙂

  14. BK at 1.50

    I see Dutton is trying to imagine a ‘flood’ (boom-tish) of boats into reality.

    I also note his phrase ‘water protection.’ I guess he is approaching the age of plumbing issues!

    BTW, everything he says about ‘not’ wanting people in detention or a flood of asylum seekers on Labor’s watch is a lie – but I suspect you knew that.

    Key problem for Dutton: he can’t conspire with the Sri Lankan govt to send boats here because neither he, nor that govt, are the govt any longer!

  15. yabba:

    Good to see evidence based decisions. Not just reacting to pressure but avoiding a total waste of time and money if there’s no justification a recount is necessary.

  16. Confessions says:
    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 6:35 pm
    “Cultcha? We have cultcha coming out of our arse! Leichhardt. Cabramatta. Newtown. Chinatown. Five Dock. Summer Hill. Campsite. Harris Park. You name it, Sydney’s got it.
    The Shire…”

    Don’t forget the Insular Peninsula.

  17. “ The Shire…”

    The setting for Puberty Blues.

    Great beaches.

    When a future Labor Government reserves Cronulla Golf Course as the site of the Grand Mosque of Australia and a 20,000 residence social housing estate, it too can enjoy the benefits of the rest of Sydney’s cultural richness.

  18. Cronus @ #630 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 6:53 pm

    Confessions says:
    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 6:35 pm
    “Cultcha? We have cultcha coming out of our arse! Leichhardt. Cabramatta. Newtown. Chinatown. Five Dock. Summer Hill. Campsite. Harris Park. You name it, Sydney’s got it.
    The Shire…”

    Don’t forget the Insular Peninsula.

    With family up there how could I forget??
    😆

  19. Not the best way to go:

    Poena cullei (from Latin ‘penalty of the sack’) under Roman law was a type of death penalty imposed on a subject who had been found guilty of patricide. The punishment consisted of being sewn up in a leather sack, with an assortment of live animals including a dog, snake, monkey, and a chicken or rooster, and then being thrown into water.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poena_cullei

  20. nath @ #637 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 7:07 pm

    Not the best way to go:

    Poena cullei (from Latin ‘penalty of the sack’) under Roman law was a type of death penalty imposed on a subject who had been found guilty of patricide. The punishment consisted of being sewn up in a leather sack, with an assortment of live animals including a dog, snake, monkey, and a chicken or rooster, and then being thrown into water.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poena_cullei

    Don’t tell Alan Jones. 😐

  21. Nath from earlier about Stooges……Well I liked them…my favourite was always No Fun….later covered by the Sex Pistols…..so all us Stooges are in great company….Larry, Moe, Curley Joe and Iggy Pop

  22. Snappy Tom @ #625 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 6:49 pm

    BK at 1.50

    I see Dutton is trying to imagine a ‘flood’ (boom-tish) of boats into reality.

    I also note his phrase ‘water protection.’ I guess he is approaching the age of plumbing issues!

    BTW, everything he says about ‘not’ wanting people in detention or a flood of asylum seekers on Labor’s watch is a lie – but I suspect you knew that.

    Key problem for Dutton: he can’t conspire with the Sri Lankan govt to send boats here because neither he, nor that govt, are the govt any longer!

    From what I saw of Dutton’s presser it seemed a lacklustre affair, like a band, past it’s use by date, just trotting out the hits for the aging fan base.

  23. “By law anyone disparaging the Yarra is to be thrown off the Tarpeian Rock….no wait, that’s the Tiber.
    Maybe closer to home the popular Sydney Gap?

  24. Perrotett has asked for Coutts Trotter to investigate. End of matter. All will be found to be above board but a small improvements suggested about process for future of course. But just some minor stuff.

    Do tax payers buy a place for John to live in NYC as well? It’s an expensive city. It really is the least we can do given what he will be doing for NSW.

    I also think Albanese should consider appointing John to be Ambassador to the US. But only if he can combine his roles. And of course only if Coutts Trotter says it is all Ok.

  25. BeaglieBoy @ #639 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 7:09 pm

    Nath from earlier about Stooges……Well I liked them…my favourite was always No Fun….later covered by the Sex Pistols…..so all us Stooges are in great company….Larry, Moe, Curley Joe and Iggy Pop

    I never saw The Stooges (I don’t think they toured Australia) but I did see Iggy Pop at the WA Institute of Sport stadium. Not a very high stage so we were able to see him quite easily. I think my ears are still ringing from the experience though. 😉

  26. “ By law anyone disparaging the Yarra is to be thrown off the Tarpeian Rock….no wait, that’s the Tiber.”

    Mistaking the Yarra for the Tiber is an easy mistake to make, I’ll grant you that.

  27. Dr John says:
    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 7:11 pm

    “By law anyone disparaging the Yarra is to be thrown off the Tarpeian Rock….no wait, that’s the Tiber.
    Maybe closer to home the popular Sydney Gap?
    _______
    Yeah that’s a bit dark…..

  28. Wranslide @ Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 7:11 pm

    How effective is Coutts Trotter at these sort of reviews? As effective as Gaetjens for instance?

  29. I also hope the place that John gets to live in has a nice and large kitchen. According to Alex Smith John does a mean scallops with a light soy infusion although he worries they can be a little overdone.

  30. Watermelon:

    Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    Pi

    You realize that every military person in Australia has to salute that flag don’t ya?

    [‘Yes. All the more reason to get rid of it.’]

    You seem to be trying to outdo dear leader Bandt. While not one for jingoism, some still respect the ANF, comparing it to the swastika, a smidgeon over the top. I put it down to your tender years.

    ______________________________

    Late Riser:

    Re. the prospective soirée for SE Qld bludgers, we haven’t exactly been overwhelmed with expressions of interest; not to worry, a work-in-progress, and thanks for your encouragement, Cat.

    _______________________________

    Beagleboy:

    Re. your admonishment of dear Andrew, with the greatest respect I feel that you’re attempting to usurp my role as board monitor, thus described by none other than dear moderator, dear Andrew, dear GG, and, if my memory serves me, dear Bushfire Bill.

    _______________________________

    nath:

    In my view, your choice of a flag is a beauty. I was born in the Old Dart & served in the PNF, but have always thought it wrong to have a pommie motif – no offence lizzie; not the Queen but our dearly departed.

    _______________________________

    Dutton’s signalled that he’s going to be more feral than Abbott. It seems, though, that Labor’s ignoring the berley. Best to ignore him; this will really piss him off, incapable of understanding that the show’s moved on, learning little from May, 21.

    ______________________________

    The appointment of Barilaro is a complete sham. Creating the role in NYC, when Trade Minister, and then selected to fulfill it, after saying he was averse to public scrutiny in his defamation suit, stinks like mercaptans. This could be Perrottet’s undoing.

Comments Page 13 of 39
1 12 13 14 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *