The Guardian reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which it seems won’t be treating us to voting intention for the time being. However, it does provide us with leadership ratings, which record a bounce for Anthony Albanese impressive even by the standards of post-election honeymoon polling: his approval rating is now at 59%, up from 42% in the final pre-election poll, while his disapproval rating has plunged from 41% to 18%. However, nothing is reported on ratings for Peter Dutton or a preferred prime minister result.
The poll also finds an eight point increase since pre-election on the question of whether Australia is headed in the right direction to 48%, with the negative response down from 42% to 27%. It apparently shows “about a third” expect economic conditions will improve over the next year, which is up five points though I’m not sure when the previous question was asked, with 40% expecting things to get worse, with expectations evenly balanced with respect to personal finances. Thirty-five per cent thought the new government would be better for their personal finances compared with 18% for one led by Peter Dutton. Asked whether Australia should become a republic with an Australian head of state, 44% said yes and 34% no, the latter being six points higher than when the question was last asked in March last year.
More detail from the poll will become available when the full report is published later today (UPDATE: Full report here). I am unable to offer any insight as to when Newspoll will be back, when Essential Research will resume voting intention polling, or what the enigmatic Roy Morgan organisation might do. However, I can relate that Ipsos’s and Resolve Strategic’s contracts ended with the election, though that’s not to say they won’t show up again in some form at some point.
Late Riser @ Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 1:04 pm
I should have said two cuppas 😉
While aware of white fragility as a term, I haven’t read the book. Thank you for the suggestion and shall add it to the booklist.
I am also interested in institutional and system responses. How does the literary world handle such issues? It is also interesting to see the age breakdown on commentators. Is one of the mechanistic drivers an intergenerational conflict in which a new generation seeks cultural supremacy through revised standards of social discourse? It wouldn’t be the first time.
Of course we have our own literary dramas in Australia. Who could forget the Helen Demidenko affair?
Or the Ern Malley hoax?
Ven
“ With each passing day it is clear AUKUS deal, all Defence contract cancellations in the last few months, trying to buy new defence machinery and equipments is to wedge ALP. Nothing more, nothing less. Because of LNP so-called defence policies This country is woefully short of and under equipped to defend ourselves without a foreign power.
Peter Dutton was the worst Defence Minister Australia had till now other than that LNP guy who said Australia cannot build a Canoe.
No wonder some posters like nath and Lars think we should not build anything big”
I increasingly think you are correct. Also, irrespective of wedging Labor, I think the far right of the Liberals ideologically opposed to Australian manufacturing wanted Sea 1000 to fail, so they could shift to offshore purchasing. It is the only motivation that explains some of their inaction.
They failed to implement their own White Paper. Why? They wanted the French to fail, so they could buy a big, expensive shiny toy from America. The higher the cost of the French contract rose, the easier it would be to justify the cost of Virginias.
Imacca, AE
I must agree with AE on the preference to go to one of the new large German designs in the interim. The timescale for sub design does not work for Son of Collins. It is a factor consistently underestimated by Defence and ex navy people.
If a “sub gap” happens again, the RAN sub crew force built up over the past decade, now over 600, will attrition away. They won’t have boats to go to sea in, their skills will decline, and they will take other jobs. So speed is essential.The Type 218SG was developed from the Type 216 that TKM first proposed for Sea 1000 back in 2015. It is probably the closest fit actually operating.
A short visit to Singapore would soon settle whether it was suitable.
A shorter gap between tender and construction would preserve more jobs as ASC and in the RAN sub force.
I’ve been struggling with Kouk’s economist reaction to cheer on interest rate rises, as if somehow f*cking over people who are struggling with rising prices by increasing their housing costs is a good idea rather than an idea that should see guillotines set up all over the country.
Well out of touch arsehole Bill Maher, did a wonderful thing, and had Kirsten Bell on, and she slayed him (unfortunately only by showing he is an ignorant out of touch fool), it was beautiful and so I found her youtube and podcast and she had a guest, David Sirota, who has the Lever Time podcast and it is just f*cking brilliant, wrapped up my angry and confused thoughts and put them in a framework.
Basically the Kouk is cheering on interest rate rises because it cuts the wages of middle class people, and possibly lower class where they own a home or have a rental that is affected by interest rates, while not affecting flood of money to the really wealthy.
it seems like a trap to wedge labor hoping they could not back nucliar powerd subs do not know why bidon and johnson agreed to it
“it seems like a trap to wedge labor hoping they could not back nucliar powerd subs do not know why bidon and johnson agreed to it”
100% it was just a stupid nationalist jingoistic wedge for entirely domestic political purposes.
It was a brief distraction for Johnson, and that is what he moves from, one idiotic distraction to the next. So in essence predominantly domestic politics, not security at all.
For Biden it is a throwback to the idea of American Exceptionalism, a single great world power that tells others what is going to happen and disobeys any an all rules it doesn’t like. This backs up the anti China, how dare they even think of doing things we’ve being doing for a century, rhetoric in the USA. So again largely domestic politics not security at all.
It is a really stupid farce, anyone who frames it as a genuine security pact, needs to have the pot moved and a good fertilizing.
Fortunately China and Russia do not do exceptionalism.
Luigi Smith @ Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 2:41 pm
“Or the Ern Malley hoax?”
Surely that was just a bit of fun? 😉
“Fortunately China and Russia do not do exceptionalism.”
I know it is sarcasm, but if one ignores the sarcasm it is the most substantive contribution you’ve made in this area in about 18 months. Keep up the good observational work.
Correctomundo Socrates.
We have lost a decade on subs.
Hugh White is right about one thing: they are the most important asset to defend Australia. Despite what I wrote at length yesterday, if i could employ magic to deliver us a defence capability by 2030 then I’d probably chose his prescription of 24-36 subs (although that seems to be based on conventional – SSK – Submarines operating in groups of three subs, with only one out of the three subs available or at sea at any given time. Whereas – by way of example – each French Suffren class sub is designed to be at sea for between 200 and 270 days a year AND, being nuclear powered can actually transit to a designated patrol station at 25 knots, so I reckon that a fleet of 12 modern SSNs would be as effective in maritime denial/A2-AD operations as a fleet of even 36 conventional subs).
However, magic isn’t actually a thing, so we are better off (in fact it is vital) to modify existing assets and enhance them by prudent purchases of extra kit this decade FIRST before we get the next generation subs … eventually.
In order of priority I would be doing the following:
1. Purchasing thousands of strike missiles, especially long range cruise missiles, supplemented by hypersonic missiles, once they actually become a thing;
2. Modifying existing platforms to take the same (ie. AWDs for Tomahawks, F18s for LRSMs, F35s for JSMs, ANZACs and Arafuras for NSMs, Collins for Tomahawks [maybe]);
3. Purchasing and launching new equatorial orbiting surveillance and reconnaissance satellites;
4. Building three new Hobart class AWDs and commissioned before 2030 at Osborne and either Williamtown or Newcastle shipyards (with the build of the future frigates postponed until a full review of the programme can be completed);
5. Acquiring 28-36 F35Bs and as many autonomous ‘loyal wingman’ drones as possible and Embarking them on modified Canberra class LHDs; and
6. Purchase three wholly off the shelf subs built overseas suitable for Sea Denial operations between the Solomon Islands and the Straits of Malacca (with FOB bases in Townsville and/or Darwin and replenishment depots elsewhere such that of our expanded 9 SSK sub fleet we can have a minimum of 3 boats ‘on station’ at any given time.
7. I’d also invest in ballistic missile shield systems and acquire land based mobile launch platforms for both missile defence and strike missile launches.
Then we can buy ourselves time to plan the long term force structure of the navy. If every SSN option turns out to be impractical THEN we can start building SSKs of choice in Adelaide. A26s? I have no objections. Type 216s (the oceanic sized version of the 218SG)? Sure. Attack Class (my preference actually). OK. Some Korean design. Ok. Whatever. The point is we will have brought ourselves time to promptly get out ducks in a row.
One other thing: Fort Fumble is so notorious that i think that an independent Inspectorate for defence procurement should be established, and attached to that should be an special prosecutors office, because from what i can tell, over the past decade tens of billions of dollars have been trucked out of the the nations accounts and into … an abyss. Time to put the stick around.
Andrew_Earlwood in Seminyak @ #1663 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 4:01 pm
All seems reasonable to me. Good comment.
‘submarine’
The word that launched a thousand words.
When China achieves its aim of generating a systematic excess of iron ore supply over demand all current discussions of funding the ADF become OBE.
OBE – I assume “Overtaken by events”.
S777
yep
Griff (AnonBlock)
Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 2:34 pm
Comment #1651
Who could forget the Helen Demidenko affair?
——–
I was unaware and had to search for it. Turns out it occurred while I was living in the US, where if it was mentioned I missed it. But Wikipedia gives a run down. Yes. Similar. Controversial. Fact or fiction? Racist or merely character portrayal?
I don’t have any thought out opinions on institutional responses to cultural controversy or conflict. Off the top of my head, perhaps what institutions might use is a policy (principle) that acknowledges that disagreement will happen when you’re exploring difficult ideas and the “best way forward” is a considered good faith discourse, where everyone might turn out to be a little bit wrong. ??
EDIT: removed a duplicate “was”
AE
“ One other thing: Fort Fumble is so notorious that i think that an independent Inspectorate for defence procurement should be established, and attached to that should be an special prosecutors office, because from what i can tell, over the past decade tens of billions of dollars have been trucked out of the the nations accounts and into … an abyss. Time to put the stick around.”
Yes this is a real issue. Many reasons for concern about Defence.
Too many failed projects.
Lack of transparent reporting (witness confusion over real value of Attack Class contract).
Lack of engineering/ project management skills
Lack of risk management and financial management.
Cost of huge bureaucracy.
The last point bears spelling out in numbers :
ASC workforce on Collins maintenance/LOTE. 2400
ASC workforce for SEA1000 SSK construction 3600 – 5000
Entire BAE workforce for UK SSN construction 8000
Defence Department staff total. 18000
I don’t really care what the Kouk says but interest rates are at historical lows and should have risen before now but the RBA was asleep at the wheel.
It is hard on mortgage holders but I have to say if you were borrowing on the basis that interest rates would be at this level forever then you really were in need of some good advice. Housing in this society is completely broken. Negative gearing is a travesty. Unfortunately, as always, it is the new entrants into the Ponzi scheme that will suffer as prices drop (as they really should).
phoenixRED @ #1648 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 2:25 pm
Ask David Helfgott.
I once saw him play in an intimate bar in Perth. He was just awe-inspiring.
Was Ms Sophie of the ASC counted in those totals?
Instead of government targeting the wealthy directly it seems like the RBAs interest rate rises is being used as the blunt instrument, since the inflation is mostly external to our country, raising the rate is just making it more likely that the economy will crash. It is one way to reduce the wealth of the wealthy but it is low and middle income earners who will feel it the most.
“Was Ms Sophie of the ASC counted in those totals?”
Perhaps the size of her ego accounts for much of the costs blowouts.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 4:38 pm
“Was Ms Sophie of the ASC counted in those totals?”
One of many reasons I would like to see more detailed financial reporting of defence projects.
We still don’t know how much Chris Pyne got paid to lobby for Naval after finishing as Defence minister. Massive conflict of interest.
Soc
A Royal Commission would bot be wasted.
Boerwar
+1
Incidentally I wa listening to a podcast about naval strategy in which Alessio Patalano (prof of naval history at King’s College, London) while defending AUKUS, distanced UK from the fallout with France. He said it was clearly understood to have been Morrison’s job to talk to Paris about the AUKUS deal and London had followed up with Australia to check it was happening.
See this link. It is in the QandA, in the last third of the discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3OWPE6uVOE
Barney in Tanjung Bunga,
Labor could build a wind farm in the north of tassie, but oh wait the greens.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-25/bob-browns-opposition-to-wind-farm-labelled-hypocrisy/11345200
Soc
The person who called Morrison a ‘man baby’ was on the money.
south @ #1679 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 5:13 pm
So you’re happy for a wind farm to be put smack bang in a bird migration flight path ..??
Rex Douglas,
I can cope with it.
Learn about wet bulb temperatures. There’s a whole lot of life elsewhere that’s just going do die because of the ambient temperature in the near future.
This represented an opportunity to create jobs, money and clean energy with a minimal externality.
Choices are being made by the pure greens that will result in a harder future tomorrow. But they can keep themselves safe in their ego’s by knowing they never made a compromise.
Building anything for human use disturbs and disrupts wildlife. Birds sometimes fly into buildings. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t build them.
It’s all a matter of getting the balance right. If the North Tasmanian wind farm passes appropriate environmental standards then it should go ahead. We desperately need infrastructure for more renewable power generation.
South / Barney
On Bob Brown:
“ He says it is in the wrong place, will ruin the view and kill endangered birds like…”
Hmmm, endanger the view? Not clear to me that is a core aspect of solving climate change.
Perhaps we can form a convoy of EVs to drive down to Tassie and talk sense into Bob Brown over this wind farm.
I’m sure it will help him change his mind.
Socrates,
sadly the moment is lost, but it exemplifies the a problem with the lefty left.
Personally, I’d be thrilled to have them as part of the skyline, another great place to put them would be in the center of tassie near the gordon dam (that’d be an exciting proposal) as there’s already a shit tonne of wind and a heavy duty transmission network in place. But the view!
“Perhaps we can form a convoy of EVs to drive down to Tassie and talk sense into Bob Brown over this wind farm.”
A convoy of ICE Utes would be more effective: without Bob doing his bit our sainted tradies wont be able to switch to EVs.
Blocker Brown.
A brilliant David Rowe.
South
Yes. Climate change threatens to send thousands of species extinct around the planet. Not embracing the only economic solution for “environmental” reasons borders on lunacy IMO.
That article on Bob Brown opposing the wind farm is a few years old. Is he still campaigning against it?
Rex
There are impacts from almost every project. The trick is to plan for them and mitigate. Scotland is way ahead of Australia on this issue. They have learnt how to modify wind farm design, location and even turbine colour to reduce risks. Lots of migratory birds around the Scottish coast.
It is a known problem, and a fixable one. But you still build the wind farm. Just build it correctly.
https://www.power-technology.com/analysis/wind-turbines-birds-bats-fatalities-nature-protection-conservation-power-environment/
Firstly, is this real? Secondly, if it is then is it corrupt? It certainly seems “odd”.
https://twitter.com/PeterWMurphy1/status/1538335264099082240
Late Riser:
I remember we commented particularly about Mirabella’s appointment.
It’s not odd. It’s outrageous. And answers my question as to just how independent is the FWC.
Late Riser @ #1687 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 6:04 pm
Late Riser @ Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 4:34 pm
A reasonable approach. Art may (should?) be both expressive and evocative. It is the latter response that can challenge prevailing opinion and norms. A society that seeks to evolve, can use Art as a catalyst, and provide opportunity for artists to create in good faith.
Well who knew?! Barnaby’s infamous $100 roast has happened. But on the coalition’s watch.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-the-cost-of-your-sunday-roast-went-up-almost-40-percent-in-three-years-20220614-p5atog.html
AWQ doesn’t need a broom. It needs a match.
I still hold out hope for the ABC 😉
Confessions, Don Key: I guess I had my head under a rock or something. Outrageous seems like the least of it. The twitter thread had several recommendations along the lines of “restructure” the FWC and ask people to apply for the new positions. But that the original actions were permissible in the first place might need a looking into.
Late Riser says:
Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 6:04 pm
Firstly, is this real? Secondly, if it is then is it corrupt? It certainly seems “odd”.
________________
When Gillard was PM she made similarly partisan appointments to the FWC, although I do not believe that they were on 27 year long contracts, which is bizarre and very wrong.
Griff, to me art shows us what’s important. It can be about little things or deep issues. It makes us think and feel. Debate flows naturally. 🙂
“When Gillard was PM she made similarly partisan appointments to the FWC,”
I call BS.
But if it is true you’ll have a list of unqualified and partisan appointments at hand.
I suspect there is no list, and that it is just the morally bankrupt and intellectually stupid ‘same – same’ to things that are not similar on any objective analysis.
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 6:27 pm
“When Gillard was PM she made similarly partisan appointments to the FWC,”
I call BS.
But if it is true you’ll have a list of unqualified and partisan appointments at hand.
_______
Is it so unbelievable that a Labor government would make partisan appointments? Do you live in a fairy land?
Go back and look at the Gillard appointments.
Wind farms are an excellent source of renewable energy but like anything you can’t just plonk them anywhere. Dumb idea putting them in bird migration flight zones.