Essential Research: Albanese approval bounce, economic conditions, republic (open thread)

Essential Research records a surge in approval for Anthony Albanese in one of the few items of polling to have come down the chute since the election.

The Guardian reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which it seems won’t be treating us to voting intention for the time being. However, it does provide us with leadership ratings, which record a bounce for Anthony Albanese impressive even by the standards of post-election honeymoon polling: his approval rating is now at 59%, up from 42% in the final pre-election poll, while his disapproval rating has plunged from 41% to 18%. However, nothing is reported on ratings for Peter Dutton or a preferred prime minister result.

The poll also finds an eight point increase since pre-election on the question of whether Australia is headed in the right direction to 48%, with the negative response down from 42% to 27%. It apparently shows “about a third” expect economic conditions will improve over the next year, which is up five points though I’m not sure when the previous question was asked, with 40% expecting things to get worse, with expectations evenly balanced with respect to personal finances. Thirty-five per cent thought the new government would be better for their personal finances compared with 18% for one led by Peter Dutton. Asked whether Australia should become a republic with an Australian head of state, 44% said yes and 34% no, the latter being six points higher than when the question was last asked in March last year.

More detail from the poll will become available when the full report is published later today (UPDATE: Full report here). I am unable to offer any insight as to when Newspoll will be back, when Essential Research will resume voting intention polling, or what the enigmatic Roy Morgan organisation might do. However, I can relate that Ipsos’s and Resolve Strategic’s contracts ended with the election, though that’s not to say they won’t show up again in some form at some point.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,759 comments on “Essential Research: Albanese approval bounce, economic conditions, republic (open thread)”

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  1. “Following a merit-based and bipartisan process that was consistent with the Government’s commitments inForward with Fairness, the following appointments as FWA Commissioners have been made:

    Mr Peter Hampton
    Mr Danny Cloghan
    Ms Anne Gooley
    Mr John Ryan
    Ms Michelle Bissett
    Mr Julius Roe
    A short profile of each appointee is attached below.”

    but yeah the same as Scomo FMD, you know if you ignore the merit and the bipartisan bits, no wonder politics in Australia is so broken we are full of idiots and liars.

  2. John Ryan

    Senior National Industrial Officer, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.Mr Ryan has over 25 years experience in union movement. He holds tertiary qualifications in law (to Masters level).
    ______
    The SDA which provides millions of dollars to the Labor party. No that’s not a partisan appointment!

  3. Duncan Kerr QC would be the highest level former politician appointment in recent years but his legal qualifications slightly exceed Ms Mirrabella

  4. Shorten’s appointments in 2013 to FWC:

    “The appointments follow an independent, merit-based selection process conducted by senior representatives of the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations and the Australian Public Service Commission in consultation with the Shadow Minister for Workplace Relations and the States and Territories.”

    Independent and merit based, but murdoch not-news and morons that sprout the sewerage that flows from there didn’t understand those bits.

    I’m very happy to be critical of labor where they deserve it but dishonest mindless ‘same – same’ stuff is a cancer on our democracy.

  5. WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 6:40 pm

    Shorten’s appointments in 2013 to FWC:

    “The appointments follow an independent, merit-based selection process conducted by senior representatives of the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations and the Australian Public Service Commission in consultation with the Shadow Minister for Workplace Relations and the States and Territories.”
    ______________
    Well you’d believe anything wouldn’t you.

  6. “John Ryan

    Senior National Industrial Officer, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.Mr Ryan has over 25 years experience in union movement. He holds tertiary qualifications in law (to Masters level).”

    “Following a merit-based and bipartisan process that was consistent with the Government’s commitments inForward with Fairness, the following appointments as FWA Commissioners have been made.”

    You ‘missed’ the bipartisan and merit based bits.

  7. “Well you’d believe anything wouldn’t you.”

    I saw through your dishonest morally bankrupt bs straight away buddy. Back to Sky and Paul Murray for you, …

  8. WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 6:43 pm

    “John Ryan

    Senior National Industrial Officer, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.Mr Ryan has over 25 years experience in union movement. He holds tertiary qualifications in law (to Masters level).”

    “Following a merit-based and bipartisan process that was consistent with the Government’s commitments inForward with Fairness, the following appointments as FWA Commissioners have been made.”

    You ‘missed’ the bipartisan and merit based bits.
    ________
    You are a special kind of idiot.

  9. WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 6:46 pm

    “You are a special kind of idiot.”

    Yeah but still I owned you and your bs right of the bat.
    _____
    I don’t think so, I think you were owned and now you are trying to hide behind bureaucratic motherhood statements on hiring. Pathetic.

  10. Liberals cheerfully appoint whoever they want to to government positions and no one goes boo.

    Labor then has to make appointments on ‘merit’ and get jumped on if someone even looks like they might be an inappropriate appointment.

    When the Liberals get back in, they can argue that no Labor supporter has ‘merit’ (because they haven’t had the experience) and therefore they can’t appoint Labor people, but Liberal operatives have had heaps of experience under both Labor and the Liberals…

  11. “I don’t think so, I think you were owned and now you are trying to hide behind bureaucratic motherhood statements on hiring. Pathetic.”

    You said Gillard did the samething as Morrison / Porter etc, where it is a matter of record that they appointed without merit and entirely on a partisan basis.

    Even a facade of bipartisanship and merit is not the same as this (and that is your partisan biased argument having been caught in a stupid lie, and I do not concede that for a moment buddy), but you clearly have no concern for fact so or reality.

  12. “Liberals cheerfully appoint whoever they want to to government positions and no one goes boo.

    Labor then has to make appointments on ‘merit’ and get jumped on if someone even looks like they might be an inappropriate appointment.

    When the Liberals get back in, they can argue that no Labor supporter has ‘merit’ (because they haven’t had the experience) and therefore they can’t appoint Labor people, but Liberal operatives have had heaps of experience under both Labor and the Liberals…

    Yeah and some really stupid people even fall for it.

  13. I think that both sides make plenty of partisan appointments and stooges from both sides complain of what the other side does.

    What concerns me is the length of these Liberal appointments. I believe the Labor appointments were limited to 10 years or thereabouts, which seems significantly more appropriate.

  14. The Libs would probably have approved of a Shoppie getting a gig. Coles , Woolies and Maccas would approve to. As probably would dear old Gerard down at the Sydney Insitute.

  15. “I think that both sides make plenty of partisan appointments and stooges from both sides complain of what the other side does.”

    But the evidence does not support this ‘same same’ rubbish, that is my whole point, which i believe I’ve made several times.

  16. Griff @ #1692 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 6:10 pm

    Late Riser @ Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 4:34 pm

    A reasonable approach. Art may (should?) be both expressive and evocative. It is the latter response that can challenge prevailing opinion and norms. A society that seeks to evolve, can use Art as a catalyst, and provide opportunity for artists to create in good faith.

    Art actually is both expressive and evocative isn’t it, but variably successful. It’s cognitive value (that which enhances our understanding of something) will depend on the extent to which it expresses the artist’s intent, and then how it is interpreted by the witness, the evoked response. Harking back, I was really interested in your questioning whether the thought that generated the controversy should have been had, at all (if I understood correctly), and what that means about thoughts. Or did you mean that we generally (not anyone specifically) should have moved beyond the point of having such thoughts. If having a thought is damaging, I’m on the page. Is wishing someone dead the same as killing them (in damaging the thinker.)

  17. We could have an American-style confirmation process for major appointments. That theoretically ensures a degree of impartiality and would hopefully block the sort of stacking we’ve seen.

    However, the big risk is bloody-minded obstructionism on the part Opposition. The Liberals would if they could stop Australia’s rainfall and with the help of Murdoch blame the ensuing drought on Labor.

    Maybe we just need a big clean-out of some of the more the egregious appointments.

  18. The problem commenced with the “Horror Budget” of Abbott

    With the GFC, impetus had been provided by the reduction in the Cash Rate (the 10 Year Bond Yield had a 7 in front of it reflecting inflation plus the Cash Rate was increased thru 2007) and by bringing forward out year expenditures (which included education expenditure including on buildings) plus there was the insulation of homes (set at a $ figure)

    By 2013 the out year expenditure were expected to be compensated for by the private sector – and the facts were that the private sector was languishing with government adjusting the pace of withdrawal of supports

    Then came the “Horror Budget” – at precisely the wrong time

    Plus from that time there was no increase in wages

    Ideology gone mad

    And we all pay – in 2022

    A more measured Budget response monitoring the recovery by the private sector, replacing government initiatives, plus a wages policy recognising household pressures courtesy of private debt levels would and should have seen the RBA in a position to increase interest rates to neutral and from (aka) 2015 and over the 2015/2018 period (noting the RBA determinant re inflation and the rate of inflation so neutral being to the order of 3% reflecting inflation – lenders lending at – say – 5% adding cost of money to inflation)

    Where we are today started in 2013 and the ideology that austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down

    Abject madness

    It is now 9 years later

    And when you add the waving around of coal in the Parliament of the Nation you really do understand the damage inflicted on the Nation by the previous Federal government

    No one and nothing was spared

    And appointments start with the High Court

  19. “We could have an American-style confirmation process for major appointments. That theoretically ensures a degree of impartiality and would hopefully block the sort of stacking we’ve seen.

    However, the big risk is bloody-minded obstructionism on the part Opposition. The Liberals would if they could stop Australia’s rainfall and with the help of Murdoch blame the ensuing drought on Labor.

    Maybe we just need a big clean-out of some of the more the egregious appointments.”

    I think Howard / Abbott / Turnbull / Morrison broke it.

    I think they should be as of right government of the day appointments, that expire with the Government. I’d include the High Court in that, which would obviously require a tiny Constitutional amendment that I’m sure would be super easy. You know like amending away the US 2nd Amendment, really easy.

  20. Some Perrottet’s budget leaks continue, as is the fashion, with 1/ funding for the Aboriginal flag to fly permanently from the Sydney Harbour Bridge (25 mill; DP said he’d drop by Bunnings and do it himself if he could), a position Berejiklian resisted, and 2/ a four day Gondwana Walk thought the Dorrigo National Park (56 mill).

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/aboriginal-flag-to-fly-permanently-atop-harbour-bridge-by-end-of-year-20220618-p5aur4.html

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/more-spectacular-than-the-daintree-56-million-rainforest-walking-track-for-nsw-20220618-p5aur3.html

  21. And just to add

    Given the extraordinary increase in private debt from 2000 until 2010 (by RBA data) then the 2013-2022 abject mismanagement, the Coalition has trashed Australia beyond compare

    Before you get to submarines!!!!

  22. The madness of the property boosterism continues today with the Perrotett announcement. Max income is $90,000 or $120,000. The max amount that can be borrowed is $800,000. So on a wage of $5,500 a month after tax about $3,500 is to the mortgage (and that at today’s historical low levels). $500 a week discretionary spend for food, bills and all the rest. How does this scheme actually benefit those who it is intended to benefit other than boosting property prices and ultimately the profits of the banks?

  23. I know it’s been less than a month, but my god, when will we see some action from the Albo government. Good god, when will we see the purge!

  24. [‘The powers of parliaments to enact legislation to abolish statutory offices and to alter the terms and conditions of appointment to those offices are, generally, unrestricted and these powers cannot, validly, be constrained by contract.’]

    Given what seems to be some questionable appointments and lengthy terms, perhaps the FWC should be abolished, then reconstructed under another name. I think the Family Court of Australia was abolished last year, becoming The Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia. The only court or statutory body that can’t get the chop is the High Court

  25. Well, subs thang is a fun debate for me. Interesting that seems SAAB still have quite a few connections into the Collins program and ASC. Certainly would not be writing them off for future work. Take AE’s point that A26 is 5 years away from first of class launch, but seems to me that may point to a path where Collins LOTE flows into a build of “something SAAB”.

    Question……have any of the German boats integrated US weapons as yet??

  26. Did anyone else notice in that James Massola piece on Albo’s agenda that there will apparently be only 4 sitting weeks before the October budget? Seems a little sparse? A regular (and valid) criticism of the previous regime was how little parliament sat, I would have thought we’d see more to try and move on all of Albo’s agenda.

    Hopefully in July they’re planning to appoint a speaker and form all of the committees, then introduce a bunch of legislation to be reviewed by those committees . So many problems to deal with, I hope they’re not going to waste any time

  27. Mavis @ #1727 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 7:39 pm

    [‘The powers of parliaments to enact legislation to abolish statutory offices and to alter the terms and conditions of appointment to those offices are, generally, unrestricted and these powers cannot, validly, be constrained by contract.’]

    Given what seems to be some questionable appointments and lengthy terms, perhaps the FWC should be abolished, then reconstructed under another name. I think the Family Court of Australia was abolished last year, becoming The Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia. The only court or statutory body that can’t get the chop is the High Court

    The merging of the Family Court into the Federal Circuit wasn’t exactly welcomed with whoops of joy all round.

    The government merged the Family Court and the Federal Circuit Court in September, in a move widely opposed by figures in the legal and domestic violence sectors, including the Law Council of Australia and more than a dozen retired judges.

    Shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus said, given the Family Court dealt with serious relationship breakdowns, further complications could add to the distress of those involved.

    “Labor fought against this ill-advised and ill-thought-out [court merger] proposal and now our worst fears have been realised due to shocking bungling by the Morrison government,” he said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/legal-bungle-casts-doubt-on-family-court-decisions-20220401-p5aa30.html

  28. “Did anyone else notice in that James Massola piece on Albo’s agenda that there will apparently be only 4 sitting weeks before the October budget? Seems a little sparse? A regular (and valid) criticism of the previous regime was how little parliament sat, I would have thought we’d see more to try and move on all of Albo’s agenda.

    Hopefully in July they’re planning to appoint a speaker and form all of the committees, then introduce a bunch of legislation to be reviewed by those committees . So many problems to deal with, I hope they’re not going to waste any time”

    Given how poorly resourced departments legislation drafting capability is, it isn’t really realistic to expect that much legislation that quickly. Even Treasury that you’d think would have a wide and deep drafting bench, is shallow and narrow and as I understand it outsources a lot to law firms. Again I’d rather good legislation than rushed legislation.

  29. ItzaDream @ Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 6:59 pm

    I was attempting to puzzle out the phenomenon that is provoking a reaction. Institutional approval (publication), individual action (written word), or to think of such terms (thoughtcrime?). If the last, then this very much goes to whether people should be having such thoughts. At which point we move to conditioning. I wonder how we go about altering this and what are the unintended consequences. Were such thoughts resulting in this person doing good in the world? The “white saviour complex”? Philanthropy?

    And on a seperate note, I agree that thought can itself be damaging to oneself. Very much so.

    @Late Riser, I shall need to reflect on what Art shows as important beyond expression and evocation.

  30. ItzaDream:

    Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 7:47 pm

    Mavis @ #1727 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 7:39 pm

    [‘The merging of the Family Court into the Federal Circuit wasn’t exactly welcomed with whoops of joy all round.’]

    Yes. Sections of the legal profession were hopping mad but whether their concerns were justified remains to be seen, though there does appear to be some problems, as set out in your link. And I see Dreyfus was strongly against the merger. Given he’s now the A-G, he’s at liberty to revert to the status quo but I don’t think he will, the merger having cost around $100m.

  31. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 4:12 pm
    ‘submarine’
    The word that launched a thousand words.
    _____________________
    A Collins class off Portland, Victoria this afternoon. Just outside the harbour.

  32. Dog’s Brunch,
    oof, that’s not a good look for dear old dom.

    The right and left wing pollies really do contort themselves a lot for their culture wars and partys, I really think pollies need to start calling it like they see it. Even if it’s a bad look from time to time. As voters have shown, people respect genuine players. Think Lambie and all the independents.

  33. Late Riser @ #1693 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 6:14 pm

    Confessions, Don Key: I guess I had my head under a rock or something. Outrageous seems like the least of it. The twitter thread had several recommendations along the lines of “restructure” the FWC and ask people to apply for the new positions. But that the original actions were permissible in the first place might need a looking into.

    A lot happened over 2019-22, a lot happened, and I think you’d need more than a diligent adherence to a strict index card and diary system to keep track of everything.

  34. I 100% support the flagpole decision. Will the Daily Telecrap be screaming about the $25 million cost? Probably only if they got mixed up and thought the Albo Government was paying for it.

    Installing a 20 metre flag pole on top of the Bridge would certainly be challenging. Do they build it elsewhere, somehow get it to the top of the arch then erect it, or do they build it in place? Of course we can’t have the thing falling down during or after erection. The location would be one of the windiest places in Sydney. A decent East Coast Low can pack gusts up to 150 km/h. An anemometer at Kurnell (across Botany Bay from the Airport) recorded a 213 kph gust when a tornado passed over it in 2015. The flagpole will have to be able to take this and more.

  35. From first hand experience, double income households are the requirement

    And Grandparents as full time babysitters (until school then school drop offs and pick ups)

    So Grandparents plural – as in 4 to cover all bases!!!!

    The days of a single income family appear to be no more

    So one wage covers the fixed outgoings including the servicing of the mortgage – the other for discretionary and contingencies

    Hence the importance on education

    And the early childhood initiatives we now see

    Those more prudent have been servicing their mortgage at higher repayments than the prevailing interest rates oblige and have a level of prepayments – and savings

    Back in the 1980’s the major parties took it turn about with appointments to the Arbitration Commission (for one at least) to ensure balance

    Then came the night of the long knives courtesy of Howard

  36. nath at 6.22

    If you want to allege that Gillard appointed unqualified partisan hacks to the FWC, the onus is on you to provide evidence, not just tell others to ‘google it.’

    Until then, you’ve said nothing.

  37. Here we go again at 8:45 pm

    And Grandparents as full time babysitters (until school then school drop offs and pick ups)

    So Grandparents plural – as in 4 to cover all base

    Which may fall over rapidly as more people can/do./have to delay retirement.

  38. Watched Insiders evening edition. Gawd but Dutton came across badly. Outright lies and flailing around but if you just talk fast enough you make it through i guess. I am thinking that the first parliamentary sittings may involve a few Libs getting chucked out trying to get ALP members arc up so they can run a “Kaos under Albo” line.

  39. have no idea whiy labor is so relucdent to sack department heads maybi albanese will be like rudd cathryn campbell still there in foreign affairs desbiote head off department that over saw robodebt justin bassin in aspi desbite marise payne chief off staff and mathias corman chief of staff in infustructure plus no diplomatic appointment uk and new us

  40. wonder if labor will sack mirabeller from fwc understand the admin tribunal are to hard to sack but shane stone still as natural disaster head liberals appoint mates to publick service and labor does nothing about it keeps them there rudd even apppointed x liberals as ambasadas only labor people liberals appoint are those whosort of fell out like garry gray do not see whiy labor has to keep them to resign them selves

  41. “wonder if labor will sack mirabeller from fwc understand the admin tribunal are to hard to sack but shane stone still as natural disaster head liberals appoint mates to publick service and labor does nothing about it keeps them there rudd even apppointed x liberals as ambasadas only labor people liberals appoint are those whosort of fell out like garry gray do not see whiy labor has to keep them to resign them selves”

    The less obvious any purge is the better. Back in the day I voted in Gary Gray’s preselection, his socialist opponent would have been a much better outcome for every one all things considered.

  42. I’m late to the day but just finished watching Insiders. Saw comments from earlier that Dutton’s interview was a ‘train wreck’.

    I’m not convinced on that but particularly on climate I found the line he took was very interesting. His message seemed solely for the base that voted for them.

    Ok it is aimed at trying to cut down the new minister from the start. Like a leopard on the Serengeti. I kind of get it but then again I really don’t. You got smashed mate and you’re essentially saying hand it all back to us immediately. That is such a level of denial of what just happened that it’s quite amazing.

    Mind you how red his cheeks went when his Connecticut lie was exposed on one question shows his level of ‘training wheels’!

  43. Snappy Tom @ #1741 Sunday, June 19th, 2022 – 9:17 pm

    nath at 6.22

    If you want to allege that Gillard appointed unqualified partisan hacks to the FWC, the onus is on you to provide evidence, not just tell others to ‘google it.’

    Until then, you’ve said nothing.

    Standard operating procedure for nath. Throw absolute crap around and hope some of it sticks.

    Did you notice how the only appointee he picked up on was John Ryan? Who just happened to be associated with nath’s bete noir, the SDA? As if, just because a person worked for the SDA it automatically is a disqualifier, simply because, in the nath circular ‘logic’ of things, as he’s spent years now building up odium towards the SDA he can throw it into the mix and expect instant recoil.

    Of course he chose to ignore John Ryan’s Masters in Industrial Law, which kind of might make him qualified to be a Fair Work Commissioner. But, you know, SDA. Also that he was appointed to lead the ILO team advising Timor-Leste on Labour Relations. Or that he still appears in front of the FWC for the AMA and doctors.

    No, let’s believe some useless numpty from Victoria called nath who seems to spend all his time on this blog pouring crap on people, especially Labor people.

    Sorry, no can do. nath’s a Nowhere Man. He’s gone nowhere and he’ll never get anywhere in life either. The only thing he’s ever been even half good at is criticising other people. Bravo, loser.

  44. C@t at 10.34

    IIRC, Peter Malinauskas is SDA-aligned. SA must therefore be going to the pack. Pity SAers have yet to notice…

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