Essential Research: Albanese approval bounce, economic conditions, republic (open thread)

Essential Research records a surge in approval for Anthony Albanese in one of the few items of polling to have come down the chute since the election.

The Guardian reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which it seems won’t be treating us to voting intention for the time being. However, it does provide us with leadership ratings, which record a bounce for Anthony Albanese impressive even by the standards of post-election honeymoon polling: his approval rating is now at 59%, up from 42% in the final pre-election poll, while his disapproval rating has plunged from 41% to 18%. However, nothing is reported on ratings for Peter Dutton or a preferred prime minister result.

The poll also finds an eight point increase since pre-election on the question of whether Australia is headed in the right direction to 48%, with the negative response down from 42% to 27%. It apparently shows “about a third” expect economic conditions will improve over the next year, which is up five points though I’m not sure when the previous question was asked, with 40% expecting things to get worse, with expectations evenly balanced with respect to personal finances. Thirty-five per cent thought the new government would be better for their personal finances compared with 18% for one led by Peter Dutton. Asked whether Australia should become a republic with an Australian head of state, 44% said yes and 34% no, the latter being six points higher than when the question was last asked in March last year.

More detail from the poll will become available when the full report is published later today (UPDATE: Full report here). I am unable to offer any insight as to when Newspoll will be back, when Essential Research will resume voting intention polling, or what the enigmatic Roy Morgan organisation might do. However, I can relate that Ipsos’s and Resolve Strategic’s contracts ended with the election, though that’s not to say they won’t show up again in some form at some point.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,759 comments on “Essential Research: Albanese approval bounce, economic conditions, republic (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 36
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  1. Oh yes, as a British-Australian duel citizen I couldn’t be more proud on supporting a Republic. Time for us to move on but I think such a referndum should only be held a few years after the next Monarch takes the throne out of respect for the predecessor and the family.

    I’m guessing the remaining percentage on the poll were undecideds or no opinion?

  2. The loss of centrist commentary in the media (crumbling credibility of SMH/Age, AFR and ABC) means the new government will almost always be under attack in the mainstream news. It will require a disciplined government with genuine belief in its values, plans and policies to ignore the white noise and address the myriad immediate challenges that lay ahead. Ignoring polls by Albo and cabinet will be critical otherwise they distract from the necessary focus.

  3. Very encouraging opening poll. Early days of course, but like a lot of people I always felt that Albo’s path to the Lodge looked rocky and uncertain, but if he could actually make it there, he’d do the job really well and come over really well.

    Feels like a long time since that first press conference in Lonny on day 1 of the campaign and the bullshit about the unemployment rate. At the time it had me hiding from any news or discussion about the election for a week.

  4. And so begins another 3 years of poll PTSD. We are back to the, oh he’s so popular, what can go wrong to blow it all up!?!

    However, glass half full perspective says to me that Prime Minister Albanese has had a long apprenticeship and so he should have learned from all those before him in leadership.

    There will be, events, dear boy, events, however Labor are lucky enough to have opposite them a group who still think that pulling the wool over the electorate’s eyes and lying to them in order to push their anti Labor talking points, is the way back to government. I think the electorate are just too sophisticated for that these days. Open-minded and open-hearted. Well, enough to give Labor a fair go.

  5. Daniel says:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 6:06 am
    “Oh yes, as a British-Australian duel citizen I couldn’t be more proud on supporting a Republic. Time for us to move on but I think such a referndum should only be held a few years after the next Monarch takes the throne out of respect for the predecessor and the family.”

    As another dual citizen I would also support Australia becoming a republic, and as soon as practicable.

    If we have to “show respect” (and I don’t agree) then announce that we will become a republic in advance of the Queen ‘moving on’, effective as soon as she does so – avoiding a period when Charles, William or whoever take over the Australian Regency.

  6. Morning all. Excellent poll result for Albo and the Labor Ministerial team. They have worked hard to achieve this result. Encouraging to see they are on the right track. So much for that “no mandate” garbage.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Sarah Martin unpacks the lates Essential poll that shows Anthony Albanese enjoying a post-election approval boost last seen with Kevin Rudd.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/15/guardian-essential-poll-albanese-enjoys-post-election-approval-boost-last-seen-with-kevin-rudd
    Richard Marles got the balance right at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last weekend, sitting down with China’s Defence Minister, Wei Fenghe, in a meeting hosted by China that lasted an hour where both sides listed their concerns – a meeting that ended the Beijing-imposed freeze on ministerial contacts with Australia lasting nearly three years.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/china-dialogue-begins-but-labor-holds-firm-on-national-interest/news-story/4c6a5fc38b52b01d736c38616bbb3f1d
    Anthony Albanese and new Treasurer Jim Chalmers need to use the snowballing cluster of shocks to recast Australia’s economic agenda in the same way its Coalition predecessor should have seized the COVID-19 pandemic – as a burning platform for change, urges the AFR’s editorial.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/labor-has-to-face-a-changed-economic-reality-20220613-p5at8f
    Ross Gittins tells us that the simple, obvious truth is that if we want more services without loss of quality, we’ll have to pay higher taxes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-we-weren-t-told-before-the-election-taxes-to-rise-not-fall-20220614-p5atgm.html
    Treasury Secretary Kennedy’s recognition that the government needs to raise more revenue to meet its spending obligations is most welcome. Maybe this public statement of the obvious was not possible under the previous government, writes Michael Keating.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-future-budget-outlook/
    The Reserve Bank of Australia governor says an extra $250 billion of savings will help households contend with cost of living pressures and house price falls, reports John Kehoe.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/philip-lowe-says-higher-rates-necessary-to-slay-7pc-inflation-20220614-p5atq6
    Dana Daniel writes that Bill Shorten will vow to take the National Disability Insurance Scheme’s wider economic benefits into account when assessing its viability in a departure from the former Coalition government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-promises-new-approach-to-sustainability-of-the-ndis-20220614-p5atlo.html
    Greg Hunt was being courted by the Victorian Liberal Party to be its leader ahead of his retirement from federal politics, according to a new book. The former health minister was having conversations ­behind the scenes about a possible shift to Victorian state politics, according to a book by Australian Financial Review correspondent Aaron Patrick.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/greg-hunt-sounded-out-for-tilt-as-liberal-state-leader/news-story/8ac9b7f3f1864dc01fc3ff74d3c1924e
    Just over half of Australia’s eligible aged care residents have had a fourth Covid vaccine dose, prompting the federal health minister, Mark Butler, to warn the winter rollout “has been too slow”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/15/only-50-of-aged-care-residents-are-fully-boosted-against-covid-with-vaccine-rollout-labelled-too-slow
    Paul Bongiorno says new era in politics may be here, but we shouldn’t count on it.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/06/14/politics-new-era-paul-bongiorno/
    John Lord waxes lyrical about the Coalition’s transition from being horrible in government to being hypocritical in opposition.
    https://theaimn.com/from-being-horrible-in-government-to-being-hypocritical-in-opposition/
    Mike Foley explains how power generators are exploiting the chaotic energy market by withdrawing power supply from the electricity grid, forcing the Australian Energy Market Operator to direct them to fire their plants back up and triggering profitable compensation payments. “Unconscionable conduct” has been mentioned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/power-companies-accused-of-unconscionable-conduct-as-they-withdraw-from-grid-20220614-p5ath9.html
    Australia already has a UK-style windfall profits tax on gas – but we’ll give away tens of billions of dollars unless we fix it soon, explains Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/australia-already-has-a-uk-style-windfall-profits-tax-on-gas-but-well-give-away-tens-of-billions-of-dollars-unless-we-fix-it-soon-184938
    The cost of living is through the roof, as gas prices make it hard for Australians to keep warm this winter. Labor needs to stand firm against foreign interests and reserve domestic supply. Dave Donovan looks at how we got to this cold, dark place.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/you-might-be-warm-and-cookin-with-gas-if-only-it-wasnt-957-foreign-owned,16463
    One of the reasons why some of Labor’s old hands, particularly on the right, regard the prospect of integrity legislation with less than complete enthusiasm is that sooner or later – probably sooner than expected and maybe even before the next election – it will be the instrument of the downfall of a Labor minister, writes Jack Waterford.
    https://johnmenadue.com/sooner-or-later-the-integrity-commission-will-take-out-a-labor-minister/
    Karen Barlow explains the lesson from Zed Seselja’s loss to David Pocock – listen to the electorate! She says Seselja could not put his personal beliefs aside for what the people wanted.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7778996/the-lesson-from-david-pococks-victory/?cs=14329
    Josh Taylor writes that Bunnings, Kmart and The Good Guys have been using facial recognition technology in a bid to crack down on theft in-store, research by Choice says. The consumer group said it asked 25 of Australia’s largest retailers whether they were using facial recognition technology and examined their privacy policies. Based on that investigation, it said, the three appeared to be the only retailers among that group who were using the technology.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/15/bunnings-kmart-and-the-good-guys-using-facial-recognition-technology-to-crack-down-on-theft-choice-says
    A former Hurstville councillor has given evidence he accepted bags filled with $170,000 from a developer linked to apartment blocks in Sydney’s south. There’s those two words appearing in close proximity again – councillor and developer!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/councillors-accepted-bags-of-cash-from-property-developer-icac-told-20220614-p5atgq.html
    Battered by 9 years of Coalition government, the ABC now has a hard road of repair ahead, writes Dennis Muller who says the legacy of the nine-year onslaught remains.
    https://theconversation.com/battered-by-9-years-of-coalition-government-the-abc-now-has-a-hard-road-of-repair-ahead-184637
    The NSW treasurer is the style of Liberal who could fend off the turquoise troopers – all while dragging the Libs into the 21st century, says Jenna Price.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/for-women-matt-kean-might-just-be-the-teal-deal-20220613-p5atdy.html
    Like Napoleon at Elba, Donald Trump is plotting his revenge and return, writes Lloyd Green.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/14/donald-trump-january-6-hearings-big-lie
    The poison continues to be infused into the fabric of the US as more than 100 Republican primary winners support Donald Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/14/trump-big-lie-support-republican-primary-winners-gop
    An easy nomination for “Arsehole of the week” goes to this NT guy who has been accused of killing an Indigenous pedestrian with his car and allegedly moving her body twice after running her down.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/14/man-accused-of-darwin-hit-and-run-allegedly-moved-victims-body-twice-court-told

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/8WgcxeQ6swJGymJT6BMGEL/d9806f03-78c9-4610-8eb6-d3fef1170061.png/r0_0_1785_1004_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg
    David Rowe
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVMaqonaAAAMBU_.jpg
    John Shakespeare
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/15f8e5473067d9793bcc858b76cb7e38e744ff93.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/39ab8d545146bff3eb5aaa8cdf17b2ce56103fb6.jpg
    Andrew Dyson
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/03dcdca4b22ec5789bca08666f44145f9617133d.jpg
    Matt Golding
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/2a00b4e68c2f438f391868ccf5e2863014c9fd72.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/b6888bda69df7c8c328fe267f3b9722c5985de41.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/a9bbef2f9b0ac8108a89186173bbaa95e7d2e963.jpg
    Fiona Katauskas
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVK2-22aUAItG6I.jpg
    Mark Knight
    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/34e0b863d39b8db8465dbef6e5bc58b8?width=1024#image.jpg
    Spooner
    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/e3cbce705ae67355ddfe8ca729b18b17?width=1024#image.jpg

    From the US

    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655219650/263951_768_rgb.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655219584/263964_768_rgb.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655219524/lk061422dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655219258/mrz061322dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655219362/061322SummerPlansR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655219431/cb061422dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655131078/263916_768_rgb.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655130994/stg061222_color.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655130856/20220611edbbc-a.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1655130712/bg061422dAPR.jpg
    https://image.cagle.com/263977/750/263977.png
    https://image.cagle.com/263972/750/263972.png
    https://image.cagle.com/263971/750/263971.png
    https://image.cagle.com/263969/750/263969.png
    https://image.cagle.com/263962/750/263962.png

  8. C@t

    I hope your are right, and that more people ignore evidence-free ‘news’.

    And while I’m here can I please urge everyone to make sure you get your third (or fourth as appropriate) Covid vaccine dose if you haven’t yet. And also the Influenza vaccine even if you don’t usually get one- after two winters with essentially no influenza due to border restrictions, lockdowns, masks etc we are seeing lots of very sick people with Influenza A, and together with Covid it is putting a huge strain on every healthcare service I have been at across the country in the last few months.

    It seems, as many feared, that having Covid Omicron doesn’t improve your Covid immunity much by itself.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/people-who-caught-covid-in-first-wave-get-no-immune-boost-from-omicron

  9. BK thanks so much.

    C@T

    I think the Coalition are still pulling the wool over their own eyes so that’s too Albo’s advantage.

  10. Just hope the strong aprovvils do not tufrn out like Rudd as labor does not winn often the acspectations of what they can achieve are to high so if anyy thing goes rong they get the blame


  11. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 7:04 am
    And so begins another 3 years of poll PTSD. We are back to the, oh he’s so popular, what can go wrong to blow it all up!?!

    However, glass half full perspective says to me that Prime Minister Albanese has had a long apprenticeship and so he should have learned from all those before him in leadership.

    There will be, events, dear boy, events, however Labor are lucky enough to have opposite them a group who still think that pulling the wool over the electorate’s eyes and lying to them in order to push their anti Labor talking points, is the way back to government. I think the electorate are just too sophisticated for that these days. Open-minded and open-hearted. Well, enough to give Labor a fair go.

    He is the only Labor leader with Cabinet minister experience to lead ALP from opposition to government since atleast WW1.

  12. C@tmomma, my gut agrees with you but my brain doesn’t get why the electorate should be more sophisticated now then ever. At the level of a country, we’ve had democracy since the mid 1850s which should be enough time for anyone to learn. At the level of individuals, we keep dying and being born so there should be a new sucker every day. I don’t know how to reconcile this dichotomy. Alternatively, it could just be that the establishment lost control of the message thanks to the internet.

    As to when Australia will become a republic, I have recently changed my mind and think it will coincide with the death of the Liberals rather than the Queen. They are the party of Menzies and he was an obsessive monarchist. It creates a system for monarchism to flourish in. The death of the party of Menzies will mean the death of monarchism. (I’m bearish on the Liberals, but if they survive the monarchy will survive with it.)

  13. It is good to have a government which has not said or done anything out of the ordinary , unlike the previous 9 years of the Lib/nats corruption and incompetence

  14. From the Dawn Patrol,

    One of the reasons why some of Labor’s old hands, particularly on the right, regard the prospect of integrity legislation with less than complete enthusiasm is that sooner or later – probably sooner than expected and maybe even before the next election – it will be the instrument of the downfall of a Labor minister, writes Jack Waterford.
    https://johnmenadue.com/sooner-or-later-the-integrity-commission-will-take-out-a-labor-minister/

    What exactly is wrong with that? Any politician of whatever persuasion if they are out of order in their conduct should be held to account.
    Bring it on.

  15. What exactly is wrong with that? Any politician of whatever persuasion if they are out of order in their conduct should be held to account.
    Bring it on.

    ———————————

    Yes, that is what the independent anti-corruption authority is set up for , to be independent from any political side

  16. C@tmomma, my gut agrees with you but my brain doesn’t get why the electorate should be more sophisticated now then ever. At the level of a country, we’ve had democracy since the mid 1850s which should be enough time for anyone to learn. At the level of individuals, we keep dying and being born so there should be a new sucker every day. I don’t know how to reconcile this dichotomy. Alternatively, it could just be that the establishment lost control of the message thanks to the internet.

    Felix, I’m looking at it through the perspective of the new generations coming along who are virtually training themselves to have a more sophisticated perspective. It goes to the availability of as much good social media as bad, these days. I just know that my son points out to me people on Tik Tok that have a considered and thoughtful pov about politics, that they leaven with humour and bells and whistles to get their point across.

    In fact, what I was thinking about combined the tectonic shift in politics that we just saw at the election, tied it in with these sort of things and the various media outlets that have sprung up on the progressive Left side to counter the Right, with the fact that the audience for the sort of stuff that Murdoch has been peddling is also dying off every day as a new consumer is born.

    Yes, there may be and are, young people with a slavish devotion to conservatism but I think even they are tending to err towards the compassionate conservative perspective. Of course, there will always be evil and gross ambition but I tend to think the balance is no longer in the favour of such people. In Australia anyway, for the foreseeable. 🙂


  17. Felix the Cassowarysays:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 7:51 am
    C@tmomma, my gut agrees with you but my brain doesn’t get why the electorate should be more sophisticated now then ever. At the level of a country, we’ve had democracy since the mid 1850s which should be enough time for anyone to learn. At the level of individuals, we keep dying and being born so there should be a new sucker every day. I don’t know how to reconcile this dichotomy. Alternatively, it could just be that the establishment lost control of the message thanks to the internet.

    Felix
    Yes you make more sense than C@tmomma because we had LNP government for 20 out of last 26 years and ALP got 32.6 % PV and 51.9%2PP after atrocious 9 years LNP government.

  18. Bert @ #18 Wednesday, June 15th, 2022 – 8:03 am

    From the Dawn Patrol,

    One of the reasons why some of Labor’s old hands, particularly on the right, regard the prospect of integrity legislation with less than complete enthusiasm is that sooner or later – probably sooner than expected and maybe even before the next election – it will be the instrument of the downfall of a Labor minister, writes Jack Waterford.
    https://johnmenadue.com/sooner-or-later-the-integrity-commission-will-take-out-a-labor-minister/

    What exactly is wrong with that? Any politician of whatever persuasion if they are out of order in their conduct should be held to account.
    Bring it on.

    Jack Waterford just loves taking a poke at Labor. From memory, he didn’t think Labor deserved to win the election either.

  19. Take a chill pill, Ven! Have you not seen the latest Essential poll!?! You’ve also got to have a more nuanced pov about those numbers that you quote. Especially the 51.9% 2PP result at the election. That is historically a quite healthy result and it disguises the fact that the Teals ripped the heartland out of the Coalition. Not to mention that you continue to ignore the reality of a Preferential Voting system that saw Labor win 77 seats and form majority government. Which is all that counts at the end of the day. And who’s to say that Labor’s PV won’t go up?

  20. sprocket_ @ #10 Wednesday, June 15th, 2022 – 7:29 am

    Liz Chaney drops a promo for Thursday night’s January 6th committee hearing – worth watching till the end…

    https://twitter.com/maddowblog/status/1536820307952078849?s=21&t=OxE_8WNhQXVvQrvgUZYJrQ

    Thanks for that link. Cheney continues to do two things, nail Trump (he tried) while boosting confidence in the US system (we stopped him). Those were the themes of episode 2. I expect the themes to continue.

    A tongue in cheek list of all 7 episodes:

    THE ATTACK ON THE CAPITOL – A DOCUMENTARY FOR OUR TIMES
    Episode 1 (June 09): What happened?
    Episode 2 (June 13): The Big Lie
    Episode 3 (June 15): Decapitate DOJ
    Episode 4 (June 16): Pressuring Pence
    Episode 5 (June 21): Pressuring the States
    Episode 6 (TBD….): Trump Mobs Congress
    Episode 7 (TBD….): Trump Fiddles While Congress Burns

    EDIT: missing “the”

  21. It has never been put more succinctly, or better, than this:

    Andrea Junker
    @Strandjunker

    1. Religious freedom means you can practice any religion you want, or none at all.
    2. Religious freedom doesn’t mean you can use your beliefs to dictate what others can and cannot do.

    Your religion guides you, not all of us. It’s as simple as that.

  22. Just in case a poster on Bludger actually thinks that there is a “low probability” of COVID or future pandemic.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/uk-at-start-of-new-covid-wave-driven-by-ba4-and-ba5-new-data-suggests

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/people-who-caught-covid-in-first-wave-get-no-immune-boost-from-omicron

    The latter story is a worry. Negative ?!?”Immune imprinting” resulting in a worse immune response to subsequent Omicron infection i.e. decreased likelihood of herd immunity. I’ll be honest and say I haven’t come across this before. Need rhwombat to explain as I got into the weeds when following the research here: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1841

    Edit: I really should say “differential immune imprinting”. Golly it is complex.

  23. “The latter story is a worry.”

    From a quick look at the study, it only looks at triple-Pfizer vaccinations – presumably the most common in the UK? I wonder how other vaccines and combinations thereof perform.


  24. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 8:26 am
    It has never been put more succinctly, or better, than this:

    Andrea Junker
    @Strandjunker

    1. Religious freedom means you can practice any religion you want, or none at all.
    2. Religious freedom doesn’t mean you can use your beliefs to dictate what others can and cannot do.

    Your religion guides you, not all of us. It’s as simple as that.

    Totally agree.
    But explain that to missionaries and Evangelicals. They think the opposite.

  25. Morning all.

    The dead tree version of the SMH has a post-election wash up from Labor’s campaign manager. He essential said the coalition’s “war mongering” on China sank like a lead balloon with voters, with the party noting a distinct shift with voters who didn’t respond well to the bullish rhetoric at a time when China made that deal with the Solomons.

    I know we take these things with a grain of salt, but that would certainly explain the results in electorates like Bennelong and other places with large numbers of voters of Chinese origin.


  26. Griffsays:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 8:35 am
    Just in case a poster on Bludger actually thinks that there is a “low probability” of COVID or future pandemic.

    We had this discussion yesterday night where Lars said Quarantine facilities are waste of money because of very low probability of future pandemics.

  27. Good morning bludgers. Thanks for the dawn patrol BK. I totally second your nomination for arsehole of the week.

    Wondering why the Labor Party are holding their first regional conference in Queensland ? The simple answer is Queensland remains Labor’s problem child at elections. Labor lost a seat to the Greens, but did make some inroads in the 2PP margin in some QLD seats.

    POST ELECTION MARGINAL SEATS 2022
    Coalition 24
    Labor 12
    Greens 2
    Independents 7
    TOTAL 45

    The Coalition holds 24 marginal seats after the 2022 election, 8 of them in Queensland.
    SEAT 2PP SWING
    Deakin VIC 50.1 -4.5
    Sturt SA 50.4 -6.3
    Menzies VIC 50.6 -6.3
    Moore WA 50.7 -10.8
    Casey VIC 51.3 -3.3
    Dickson QLD 51.7 -2.9
    Bass TAS 51.7 +1.3
    Cowper NSW 52.3 v Independent
    Monash VIC 52.8 -4.0
    Aston VIC 52.8 -7.2
    Groom QLD 52.9 v Independent
    Longman QLD 53.0 -0.2
    Banks NSW 53.2 -3.0
    Bonner QLD 53.4 -4.00
    Leichhardt QLD 53.6 -0.57
    Flynn QLD 53.8 -4.8
    Wannon VIC 53.8 v Independent
    Canning WA 53.9 -7.6
    Nicholls VIC 54.0 v Independent
    Bradfield NSW 54.2 v Independent
    Forde QLD 54.2 -4.3
    Forrest WA 54.2 -10.3
    Durack WA 54.4 -9.0
    Petrie QLD 54.4 -3.9
    Albanese will be doing what he can to improve Labor’s standing in Queensland before the next election but I am not yet seeing any reason for Queenslander’s to switch to Labor in 2025, especially if potatoe head is the LOTO.

  28. Wouldn’t ‘hybrid immune damping’ suggest that the littler varmint virus has figured out a way of dampening the immune response generated by the vaccine?

  29. Griff @ #26 Wednesday, June 15th, 2022 – 8:35 am

    Just in case a poster on Bludger actually thinks that there is a “low probability” of COVID or future pandemic.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/uk-at-start-of-new-covid-wave-driven-by-ba4-and-ba5-new-data-suggests

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/people-who-caught-covid-in-first-wave-get-no-immune-boost-from-omicron

    The latter story is a worry. Negative ?!?”Immune imprinting” resulting in a worse immune response to subsequent Omicron infection i.e. decreased likelihood of herd immunity. I’ll be honest and say I haven’t come across this before. Need rhwombat to explain as I got into the weeds when following the research here: “hybrid-immune-damping.”https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1841

    From a hasty read it sounds like Omicron installs malware that allows it (and maybe others) to bypass your virus protection, from which follows that your protection needs to be updated. (But like you, I defer to the medically trained.)

  30. Jaeger and C@tmomma,

    I presume they kept the vaccination profile as consistent as possible to reduce variation induced by differences in vaccination. The study was to attempt to explain the phenomenon seen with Omicron that people are getting reinfected. Traditionally it is believed that prior infection will enhance one’s immune response. Omicron is behaving differently. And it is inconsistent. But it looks like there are situations where can even impair your response to subsequent infection. At least in some people. Still digesting as I am still in the weeds.

  31. Bert says:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 8:03 am
    From the Dawn Patrol,

    One of the reasons why some of Labor’s old hands, particularly on the right, regard the prospect of integrity legislation with less than complete enthusiasm is that sooner or later – probably sooner than expected and maybe even before the next election – it will be the instrument of the downfall of a Labor minister, writes Jack Waterford.
    https://johnmenadue.com/sooner-or-later-the-integrity-commission-will-take-out-a-labor-minister/

    “What exactly is wrong with that? Any politician of whatever persuasion if they are out of order in their conduct should be held to account.
    Bring it on.”

    +1, the whole point of a FICAC is not only to investigate but by its very existence, to hopefully prevent bad actors regardless of their political persuasion.

  32. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 8:39 am
    Morning all.

    The dead tree version of the SMH has a post-election wash up from Labor’s campaign manager. He essential said the coalition’s “war mongering” on China sank like a lead balloon with voters, with the party noting a distinct shift with voters who didn’t respond well to the bullish rhetoric at a time when China made that deal with the Solomons.

    “I know we take these things with a grain of salt, but that would certainly explain the results in electorates like Bennelong and other places with large numbers of voters of Chinese origin.”

    Seems like a reasonable data point to me and part of the tapestry of reasons that contributed to the demise of the Coalition.

  33. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 8:45 am
    I am loving your post election analyses, Sandman.

    Thanks Cat. I agree with you about the 2PP margin and other concerns about a “low” Labor PV. This is not what matters so much as the PV gap between Labor and the Coalition [If it stays within a 5% margin] Labor wins. Also there were seats where Labor played dead. After losing 18 seats and coming out of the election with 24 marginal seats, the Coalition are the Party that have to worry about how to claw back a what amounts to a 2 election trouncing and they will be arguing with with each other other about how to do that right up to the 2025 election. Go Albo !!

  34. Sandman

    Those figures continue to bring a smile to my face as well as provide a guide to strategic planning for the next election (notwithstanding that it’s three years hence) IMHO.

  35. Cronussays:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 9:08 am
    Sandman

    Those figures continue to bring a smile to my face as well as provide a guide to strategic planning for the next election (notwithstanding that it’s three years hence) IMHO.

    +1

  36. Re FICAC. We have to be able to trust our government and our institutions. As an example, it’s why “Stop The Steal” is so dangerous. It seems that in US politics that Cheney recognises this. (The US has experience with civil violence.) Is there an equivalent figure in Australian politics? Perhaps the LOTO’s recently adopted public position reflects a fundamental understanding of the need for trust in government, or it might be a pragmatic adjustment. Given how Palmer and others failed in their attempt to stir this pot I think we’re not in the same place of civil mistrust, but a FICAC seems to be a minimum requirement.

  37. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, June 15, 2022 at 7:29 am

    Eric Herschmann testimony @ 2.43 is all over the shop.”.he texted me.. called me”… then goes on at length.. not a very convincing lawyer

  38. You’d expect a bounce. The ‘fear’ of change is real and the Albo crew’s start would have dead buried and cremated that fear. Really helped along by the stark contrast between how they have behaved and spoken to the public and what had become normality, Bullshit Man’s stuntathon .

    Unfortunately it may also mean when the ‘honeymoon’ ends the ‘disappointment’ may be greater due to the higher expectations.

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