I was hoping Newspoll might be back in the game three weeks after election day, but it seems normal service is yet to resume. Presumably Essential Research will have numbers of some sort tomorrow, but it remains to be seen if they will encompass voting intention. I hope to have more to offer shortly on whether other pollsters are still in the game in the immediate term, or whether they have pulled stumps for the time being. That just leaves me with the following miscellany to relate by way of a new open thread post:
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reported yesterday on a plan within the Western Australian Liberals to have former test cricketer and national team coach Justin Langer lead the party into the next state election in 2025. The suggestion is that the current leader, David Honey, might be persuaded to relinquish his seat of Cottesloe, one of only two lower house seats the party retained at the 2021 election. It is an any case “widely accepted that Dr Honey won’t lead the WA Liberals to the next election”, with Vasse MP Libby Mettams “his likely replacement” – indeed his only possible replacement out of the existing ranks of the Liberals’ lower house contingent.
• Katina Curtis and Shane Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald have taken the trouble to compile the results of the 75,368 telephone votes cast by those in COVID-19 isolation, finding that Labor, Greens or independents candidates out-performed on them on two-candidate preferred relative to the overall results in all but eight lower house seats. Kevin Bonham is quoted in the article noting that infections are more prevalent of left-leaning demographics, namely the young and those employed in exposed occupations, though I also tend to think there may be a greater tendency for those on the right of politics to keep their illnesses to themselves.
• One bit of poll news at least: the latest quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS has been published, the first since Jeremy Rockliff succeeded Peter Gutwein as Premier. It finds the Liberals down two points since March to 39%, Labor down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and others up two to 18%. Rockliff leads Labor’s Rebecca White 47-34 as preferred premier, compared with Gutwein’s lead of 52-33 in March. The poll was conducted May 27 to June 2 through telephone interviews from a sample of 1000.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports that Julie-Ann Campbell, Queensland Labor’s outgoing state secretary and now associate partner with consultancy firm EY, is “expected to run for federal politics” – specifically for the seat of Moreton, which Graham Perrett has held for Labor since 2007.
There’s a fair bit going on at the site at the moment, so here’s a quick run-through the subjects of recent posts with on-topic discussion threads, as opposed to the open thread on this post:
• The future direction of the Liberal Party, with debate raging as to whether it should focus on recovering blue-ribbon seats from the teal independents or cutting them loose and pursuing a new course through suburban and regional seats traditionally held by Labor;
• The three state by-elections looming in the Queensland seat of Callide, the South Australian seat of Bragg and the Western Australian seat of North West Central;
• The ongoing count from the federal election, which remains of interest in relation to several Senate contests, with the pressing of the button looking reasonably imminent in South Australia and the two territories.
Early in the drought, Wangaratta nearly ran out of water, despite having what was regarded as a very secure water supply. What happened was that the dam supplying Wangaratta was virtually emptied in expectation of rain which then didn’t come.
Not long after, the Thompson dam catchment was threatened by bushfires. There was a real possibility that it would be so contaminated that its water would be unusable for a considerable time (luckily the fire didn’t get there…)
The Victorian government decided that, in a first world country, no town or city should tolerate these situations. At the very least, each town should have a back up water supply….and the more the better.
For Melbourne, which relied heavily on dams (which are great usually but eventually empty…) the solutions were the North – South tunnel, designed to carry water from Eildon to Sugarloaf, and the desal plant.
The Liberals vowed never to use the N-S tunnel.
Nath: “very rare drought”
Oh sweet summer child. Everyone says that for every significant drought.
poroti
And the WA Libs’ idea for Perth’s water security was an open drain from the Kimberly. A freeway for cane toads.
Well matt kean is realy only the true liberal modderit left price has been disapointing generaly giving the liberal moor faver than laabor how come wa libs dont get peter collier to resign from parliament as his clan has distroyed wa libs now there plan is langer colliers mentore is behind it
No one ever ‘needs’ insurance. Until you need insurance.
”
Pisays:
Tuesday, June 14, 2022 at 6:29 pm
Ven: “BTW, Electricity generation uses water.”
Not solar and wind. Most old-tech energy generation is essentially boiling water to drive turbines though, yes.
”
Currently, about 90% of electricity generation is by ‘old-tech’.
Also, Australia is a most dry continent/ country.
Rossmcg @ #603 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 6:31 pm
Because they are infatuated with the Forrest Kalgoorlie pipeline.
Ven @ #606 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 6:34 pm
Yes, very, very sunny and very, very windy. Also lots of space to put things in.
The drought from 1997-2009 was the worst since the Federation drought 1890s to 1902. That’s a hundred years.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/knowledge-centre/previous-droughts.shtml
”
zoomstersays:
Tuesday, June 14, 2022 at 6:30 pm
Early in the drought, Wangaratta nearly ran out of water, despite having what was regarded as a very secure water supply. What happened was that the dam supplying Wangaratta was virtually emptied in expectation of rain which then didn’t come.
Not long after, the Thompson dam catchment was threatened by bushfires. There was a real possibility that it would be so contaminated that its water would be unusable for a considerable time (luckily the fire didn’t get there…)
The Victorian government decided that, in a first world country, no town or city should tolerate these situations. At the very least, each town should have a back up water supply….and the more the better.
For Melbourne, which relied heavily on dams (which are great usually but eventually empty…) the solutions were the North – South tunnel, designed to carry water from Eildon to Sugarloaf, and the desal plant.
The Liberals vowed never to use the N-S tunnel.
”
zoomster
In Electricity generation we have back-up generators called Diesel Generators, which are rarely used if everything is running smoothly with regular generation.
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, June 14, 2022 at 6:33 pm
No one ever ‘needs’ insurance. Until you need insurance.
”
That is the line used to sell Insurance. 🙂
BTW, even that became unaffordable in drought and flood regions as Climate change takes hold of this country.
Addressing waste and overuse is also important. The Brumby government’s target 155 was brilliant in keeping metro water use under control. It was very regrettable that it was cancelled in ridiculous circumstances by the Liberals. It should be in play still. That’s good insurance.
Cat
I wonder if the people who hounded C Y O’Connor to his death alleging corrupt dealings would be Liberals if they were around today. One of them was a newspaper editor.
To be fair Labor minister Ernie Bridge was a keen proponent of a pipeline from the Kimberley.
After a lengthy inquiry into all the options I think the cost per gigalitre of that was up there with towing icebergs from the Antarctic or something whereas desal was much more sensible.
The rapid realisation that there was a problem (it had stopped raining as much and the city was growing like topsy) remains a triumph for all involved.
Nine years of doing nothing, as we have seen with energy policy, would have led to disaster.
”
nathsays:
Tuesday, June 14, 2022 at 6:36 pm
The drought from 1997-2009 was the worst since the Federation drought 1890s to 1902. That’s a hundred years.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/knowledge-centre/previous-droughts.shtml
”
nath
A lots of 100 year events are occurring every year now because of Climate change.
The drought period from yesteryear,also saw both Bendigo and Ballarat the 2 biggest regional cities all most run out of water ,Bendigo I believe had one days water left fore they turned on the pump to feed water from Shepparton to supply both towns.
And the fucking carry on from those over that way was unbelievable,your stealing our water,was the cry cause they couldn’t water their lawn and garden every day.
Thus far the evidence led at the Jan, 6 Committee has been quite damning of Trump’s behaviour but whether it amounts to a charge of seditious conspiracy being laid it moot. Furthermore, the person who has the authority to charge him is US Attorney Garland, a former DC appellate judge, who Obama nominated for a seat on the SCOTUS, but
whom the Senate didn’t even consider, with the result that
Trump’s man Gorsuch eventually got the gig.
If Trump’s charged, he & his supporters will scream that Garland has an axe to grind. The added problem is the mid-terms, where the GOP is likely to take control of Congress, its committees. To save America from a second disaster, Garland should act quickly by charging Trump, a man who has shown he has scant disregard for democratic principles.
I was working with a climate scientist from Monash Uni during the drought.
I asked her if the drought was normal – that is, something that would end – something which would get worse, or the new normal.
She said that no one knew.
If the experts don’t know when a drought will end, or if it will ever end, than that’s the advice a government has to go with.
Easy to be wise in retrospect.
Rossmcg at 6:31 pm
Oh gawd ! I’d forgotten all about The Canal 😆
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2005-02-03/wa-liberals-gagged-over-canal-pledge/630510
zoomster says:
Tuesday, June 14, 2022 at 6:51 pm
I was working with a climate scientist from Monash Uni during the drought.
I asked her if the drought was normal – that is, something that would end – something which would get worse, or the new normal.
She said that no one knew.
________
If it had of been the new normal not even a 200gl desal plant would have kept Victoria alive, not it’s people, animals, businesses, especially not small towns.
Good governments make prudent choices with the public’s money. Look at Covid – the biggest waste was quarantine centres.
Did we really need to build quarantine centres? That failure is shared by both parties – because no one wanted to say quarantine centres weren’t needed.
I’d say desal plants are in the same category. I doubt either party would oppose them.
Good governments can also explain complex problems in simple terms – Paul Keating being the best example.
The 2 billion dollars for that now seems like chicken feed,if it was oil to be gotten ,would’ve been built in a flash ,but water who needs it.
Now they 3 desal plants dont they
Rossmcg @ #613 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 6:44 pm
Ah yes, Ernie Bridge. I guess you could understand his interest, the Far North of WA was his bailiwick and he may have thought there were jobs in building the pipeline for his mob. However, I think someone else also proved it would be environmentally destructive to take that amount of water from the North of WA, iirc.
disregard = regard
My email to Bevan Shields
Dear Mr Shields
I am not a subscriber. That your piece was addressed to subscribers, and only subscribers, is another demerit. This affront has extended well beyond your subscriber base. How very dare you.
If you have not considered your position, perhaps you should. There’s a smouldering arrogance in this whole affair, and making note of the subject being “gossip”, as if that gives it some legitimacy, is equally troubling. Not to mention that the journalist thinks his being gay is some sort of relevance.
Magda nailed it. You have offended, and continue to offend.
Signed with Full Name
bevan.shields (at) smh (dot) com (dot) au
Gidday Bludgers,
We are headed for a global recession. Raising interest rates will NOT work because there have not been enough investments in fossil fuels coz of climate change. Prices will stay high, spending will slow, and jobs will be lost.
I’m tipping as much as 8% unemployment. Remember you famously read it here first just like you used to.
The energy companies are going to fix the Greenies good and proper believe me. Beautiful.
Take a picture now of Albo and compare in two years. If you think Rudd and Gillard aged in government, you ain’t seen nothing.
Lars Von Trier @ #605 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 6:58 pm
Future pandemics are a complex problem. Having purpose-built quarantine centres ready to go is sensible mitigation.
Ven @ #573 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 6:07 pm
WB’s link has the electorate at 111K voters.
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/HR.htm?s=Groom
AEC has about 101K votes cast.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-164.htm
Hi Socrates. Thanks for your reply. From what I understand (relying on my poor memory on the specifics as to this particular point) the snorkel on the Collins Class (and for the now cancelled Attack class) was about as discrete as the small surface buoy system you describe.
In any case, here is some reading concerning the future proofing of our SSK submarine program – which we have now abandoned – even as countries that still embrace SSKs (ie. Germany, Korea, japan, Italy, Singapore) roll out these concepts into their fleets at a rate of knots.
It is also important to remember that I’m not arguing against a pivot to a suitable SSN platform. As you say the energy advantages of SSNs cannot be dismissed, and with our strategic interests extending out beyond the particular A2/AD self defence zone I’ve previously referred to (not to mention the increased ability of a large nuclear powered submarine fleet to simply outflank this immediate zone in the three oceans that encase Australia). however, our needs are immediate and even in the longer term we should not jeopardise our core defence functionality chasing long term pipe dreams. Frankly the 2009 defence white was right – we will need 10-12 subs (whether they be regionally superior oceanic ranged SSKs or SSNs) to complete our A2/AD network by 2030. We might ‘make do’ with 8 or 9 (if the additional 2-3 are SSNs)- with more to be rolled out eventually, but if we just have our existing 6 collins by 2030 we are very vulnerable. I think we really need either the Koreans or Germans to build and deliver us 4 SSKs asap. I don’t think the Koreans are a viable option – not because their subs aren’t any good – but because, like the Americans, they have a complete order book for their own navy and could divert any building capability until the end of the decade. I am only hoping that ThyssenKrupp actually has some spare capacity after they finish with the remaining 218SGs to starting laying down 218AUs within a couple of years. If we start the 2030s with 10 (or even 8, unfolding to 10 by say 2032) SSKs in our fleet then we will not need to panic about the fact that we wont be getting our first SSN until (at the earliest) 2038 (as per the AUKUS announcement) or perhaps a few years earlier if we contract with naval Group and they can lay down 2 Aussie Sufferns in Cherbourg this decade as we get our ducks in a row at Osbourne to start laying down SSN hulls their by 2026-28.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/future-proofing-the-attack-class-part-1-propulsion-and-endurance/
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/future-proofing-the-attack-class-part-2-performance-and-capacity/
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/future-proofing-the-attack-class-part-3-regional-superiority/
At the time of cancellation Naval group offered Li-ion batteries as part of the block 2 build (ie. the second four subs to be built in the 2030s) with light metal technology envisaged to be built into the third block (ie. the four boats to be built in the 2040s). however, neither block 1 or block 2 were to be ‘stuck’ with the battery technology they were first built with: both batches were designed for adaption of emerging technologies as they became available – most probably at the time of their scheduled 10 year overhauls.
In my view, given the RANs habit of changing the design specifications after a contract is signed (with the consequential blowouts in both budget and construction time) it is surprising that the government didn’t insist on Li-ion batteries being in or plated into the design when the last changes were being negotiated back in 2019/20 (especially as, by that stage both the Japanese and German had made the switch in their own designs and Naval group had developed their own Li-ion technology that was not susceptible to Li-ion runaway fires). One of life’s little mysteries surrounding the whole Attack Class clusterfuck, I guess.
BTW, did anyone else catch the inconstancy in logic exposed today in that Pearls and Irritations article in BK’s dawn patrol behind the LNP governments insistence on secrecy in negotiating AUKUS – ie. that the Attack class was their fall back if negotiations failed, even though they had come to the conclusion that it was going to be obsolete?
It is quite clear that the now thankfully former and at all times duplicitous LNP government and at least one equally duplicitous faction within Defence simply wanted to bin the French submarine contract some what may, when any rational thinking would have realised the potential value of running both programs concurrently (at least until Australia had its first SSN come into service).
Reactionaries abound today.
nath @ #598 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 4:36 pm
It’s quite amazing how many one in a hundred years weather and climate effects we are having lately.
Ven: “Australia is a most dry continent/ country.”
Australia has every energy resource that matters coming out of the hoo-ha. South Australia, the world model for the speed at which a renewables transition can happen (about 12 years), sits on top of arguably the largest repositories of nuclear material and natural gas in the world.
Fossil fuels have turned out to be too expensive to use. You enter into multi-decade delivery contracts, and the cost ends up being 10x what you signed up for. When we have renewables delivering 4x capacity of a peak, it becomes a manufacturing or service powering issue. What’s something that takes lots of energy and through it give a service to industry? oh… you know… like desalination. When you’re energy surging and you just want to dump the energy and get back return.
It hadn’t escaped my notice that the new floating wind farm is going to be just south of it Wonthaggi.
Let’s hope your wrong Centre.
C@tmomma @ #586 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 6:20 pm
She colours herself teal.
https://www.suzieholt4groom.com/
nath @ #608 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 4:55 pm
Ah! So the problem now is it’s not big enough.
I thought you said a smaller plant would have been better.
Is this the week that the fossil fuel industry once and for all trashed what remained of their social licence? This read is a good summary.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-day-the-fossil-fuel-industry-lost-all-perspective-and-threw-away-its-social-licence/
So, what have we learned today?
W.A. to phase out Coal Generation by 2030 and to all appearances actually have a plan to do it that includes transitioning the displaced workforce. Good. 🙂
Ok, maybe not much in the greater scheme of things but add what, a percent or two to the 43% national target by 2030?? 🙂
And, never let nath, LVT or their ilk anywhere near any form of infrastructure planning. They are idiots.
ItzaDream @ #613 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 5:06 pm
The subscriber letter is just to try and stop the exodus of subscribers that has probably occurred over the last few days.
Unfortunately, I doubt he really cares about your non-subscriber views Itza.
Philip Adam’s ‘little wireless program’ asks What happened to the Liberal Party of Menzies?
Guests include…
Fred Chaney, former Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party (1989 – 1990); served as a Minister in the Fraser government. His niece, Kate Chaney, is the Member-Elect for the WA seat of Curtin.
Judith Brett, Emeritus Professor of politics at La Trobe University; author of Robert Menzies’ Forgotten People and Australian Liberals and the Moral Middle Class.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/latenightlive/what-happened-to-the-liberal-party-of-menzies/13919250
Late Riser @ #633 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 7:12 pm
Fantastic! Thanks for that. 🙂
imacca @ #635 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 7:17 pm
That Nath hasn’t learned the difference between “had of” and “had have”?
“Should’ve” is not an abbreviation of ” should of”; it is in fact an abbreviation of “should have”
I suspect Nath is born after 1956. And grammar’s not a strong point.
Apart from those shortcomings, he’s an idiot.
Lars Von Trier @ #605 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 6:58 pm
Good governments make prudent choices with the public’s money. Look at Covid – the biggest waste was quarantine centres.
*cough* JobKeeper. 😐
Check out the swing against the Tory incumbent in Groom, and the swing to Independent Suzie Holt :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Groom
Trouble in the Victorian Greens….
https://twitter.com/BaxterTim/status/1536264814783512576
The light blue colour most of the press regards as TEAL, is what I would call “aquamarine.”
Here is Zoe Daniel wearing TEAL: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-21/zoe-daniel-claims-victory-in-the-melbourne-seat-of/13892872
“Trouble in the Victorian Greens….
https://twitter.com/BaxterTim/status/1536264814783512576”
A veritable TERF war!
It was like that with Aboriginal people in the Greens up until a few years ago. They were preselected but in a tokenistic way, for seats the Greens had no shot at winning.
It took people pointing this out, esp the hypocrisy of the party attacking the Libs and Labor for their lack of diversity for the Greens to make changes and become more welcoming and inclusive of Aboriginal candidates.
zoomstet
I see that the ALP is tagged as homophobic. The Greens have no shame.
What is a TERF?
AE
Agreed pretty much all of that.
One more thing on Type 218 as an interim in lieu of Collins LOTE is hull age and safety. I know Collins LOTE includes hull inspections and full replacement of engines. It should be safe. But the boats are still coming up on 30 years old. They only have to miss one crack or faulty valve on a ballast tank and the sub could sink with loss of entire crew. Even if the Type 218SG/AU is no advance over Collins, it is newer and less likely to break.
So if it does take us 15 years to start getting SSNs and replace Collins, the new Type 218s would be a safer bet. And as you say, the overlap would finally allow us to actually increase capability towards the 12 sub fleet Rudd identified back in 2009. Then we can finally start increasing crews, instead of a constant attrition battle.
BTW here is a better link explaining all the different coms options for submarines now. What the newer SSNs can do on the data front is amazing. This is why subs are considered so valuable as intelligence assets. The floating buoys do not stick above the water as much as a mast, due to having to poke the mast up enough to clear wave action. Naval Group have similar systems for all of this.
https://navalpost.com/how-do-submarines-communicate-with-the-outside-world/
kezza2
They have their own airline now 🙂