Click here for full federal election results updated live.
My system today called Bass and Wannon for the Liberals and Wentworth for Allegra Spender, the latter being the first gain called for the teal independents, although I don’t doubt there will be four and probably five to follow. Postals continue to be added in large numbers, although they will start to diminish henceforth. As noted below, one of the biggest developments today arose from rechecking. Tomorrow we are apparently see numbers from electronic-assisted telephone voting added, which is exciting because I have absolutely no idea about their partisan tendency and how many there will be.
The latest from the three seats that could potentially push Labor over the line to a majority:
Brisbane. Kevin Bonham’s post-count post suggests the AEC is conducting an unusual indicative three-candidate preferred count to determine which out of Labor and the Greens will drop out and deliver the seat to the other. However, I’ve heard no official word on this. Based on the preference distribution in 2019, my earlier assessment was that Labor would need a buffer on the primary vote to hold out against preferences to the Greens from Animal Justice, and even to some extent from the right-wing parties, more of whose preferences went to the Greens than Labor (though a great deal more again went to the LNP). However, as with one or two of my other early assessments, this may have failed to fully account for the substantial increase in postal votes this time, which are being true to form in being weak for the Greens. Labor now leads the Greens on the primary vote, but it will need to further boost the margin if my surmise about preference flows is borne out.
Gilmore. Labor had a very handy boost of 382 votes in rechecking that was mostly down to the Gerringong booth, where the two-candidate figures had been entered the wrong way around. This apparently put Labor in the lead briefly on the raw count, but the Liberals recovered it when a small batch of postals favoured them 701-521, with Andrew Constance currently 104 votes ahead. Postals will no doubt continue to favour Constance, but the bulk of them are now out of the way. Still to come are declaration pre-polls, which should break about evenly; absents, which should boost Labor by maybe 300; provisionals, which should add a couple of dozen for Labor; and electronic-assisted votes, which I continue to have no idea about.
Lyons. This is the first result I’ve looked at where the second batch of postals was observably different from the first, going 1024-910 to Liberal compared with 2966-2857 to Labor. If the outstanding postals break like the latest batch, Labor’s current lead of 703 votes will be cut in half. That makes it very close, but there is no specific reason to expect the other outstanding votes will move the dial in either direction.
Elsewhere, Labor continues to be buried on postals in Deakin, the latest batch breaking 3715-2584 to the Liberals. Yesterday I asserted that outstanding postals should add around 1000 to Michael Sukkar’s lead, but this batch alone adds to 1131. From here Labor will need stronger than anticipated absents and/or declaration pre-polls, and/or for the enigma of electronic assisted voting. I would personally call Menzies for the Liberals now even though my system doesn’t yet have it past the 99% threshold, yesterday’s postals having broken 3715-2584 in their favour.
After a quiet day in Curtin on Monday, a second batch of postals were added that favoured Liberal member Celia Hammond 4464-2950, a similar proportion to the first batch. This suggests the outstanding postals will bite a further 1000 or so out of independent Kate Chaney’s 1842 vote lead. However, the Liberals were relatively weak on absent votes in the seat in 2019, and there’s little reason to think out-of-division pre-polls will be particularly favourable to them.
Another mass shooting the US.
Is it ever going to change.
Speersy was asking this morning where the LNP needs to go from here. I think the answer is honesty. John Howard was always looking for the wedge and grabbing the dog whistle. Toned abs took this into an artform. All libs want is power and when they’re there they have no solutions to anything other than ensuring the rich pay less tax. And will use any scare or lie or con or whistle to stay there. Maybe they need to stand for something other than this and actually work a bit harder.
How unsurprising
Raf Epstein
How Melb votes vs
@theheraldsun letters on election day
(Letters with blue are anti Teal or anti Labour. Orange are pro teal/ALP. Blacked out are about the footy) https://t.co/GOMPpdeE9i
billie @ #61 Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 – 6:05 am
Isn’t that their problem?
The public now are beginning to realise what the Liberal Party believes in.
Oh oh. Dai Le may not be eligible. The Silent Killer – S44.
Watch this space…
Karen Andrews said on ABC this morning that the LOTO will be Dutton and his deputy Susan Ley because they don’t want both leader and deputy coming from the same State. Oh course she emphasised the need to win back the Teal voters but didn’t mention the 10 + seats they lost to Labor in the meantime.
I favour a legislated Voice to start with combined with a pledge for a referendum for constitutional reform within a reasonable time, say 5 years. If we go straight to a referendum it will be defeated as the temptation to politicise it and run scare campaigns will be too great for the Opposition, especially one moving even further to the Right. A defeated referendum would kill the issue for a decade, possibly a generation (like the Republic). Also, a legislative Voice provides a chance to iron out bugs. We only get one go. We don’t want to enshrine something that doesn’t work as well as intended (like S44, Judge’s retirement ages)
People are having fun on twitter.
https://twitter.com/AgnusMunshin/status/1529006389825523713
So, is Dutton the acceptable face of Morrison?
frednk
Cracker!
The Dai Le thing is a non issue. Yes, she may be inelliglbe. If she is, the House will refer her to the High Court, she’ll be found inelligible, there will be a by-election and it’ll be won by Dai Le.
Labor are not completely tone deaf. If they have a single shred of common sense, they won’t put a candidate up in a Fowler by election
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 8:57 am
I favour a legislated Voice to start with combined with a pledge for a referendum for constitutional reform within a reasonable time, say 5 years. If we go straight to a referendum it will be defeated as the temptation to politicise it and run scare campaigns will be too great for the Opposition, especially one moving even further to the Right. A defeated referendum would kill the issue for a decade, possibly a generation (like the Republic). Also, a legislative Voice provides a chance to iron out bugs. We only get one go.
——-
There’s a lot to be said for that approach. A key requirement for the Voice is that the proposal, whatever shape it takes and whatever timetable applies, has broad support within the indigenous community.
Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:02 am
The Dai Le thing is a non issue. Yes, she may be inelliglbe. If she is, the House will refer her to the High Court, she’ll be found inelligible, there will be a by-election and it’ll be won by Dai Le.
Labor are not completely tone deaf. If they have a single shred of common sense, they won’t put a candidate up in a Fowler by election
————————
Agreed. The ALP should move on from Dai Le and concentrate on winning back Fowler in 2025. Having said that, if there were a by-election in my view the ALP should put up a candidate with respected local credentials. Of course there’s no way they’d give KK another run.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 8:37 am
“The naked immorality and corruption of not announcing the electricity prices and setting up the asylum boat stunt combined with Dutton, Ley, Robert and Taylor being touted in senior positions, are all we need to know to remind us that that the leopard may try to change its spots but that in three years time the leopard will still be a leopard.”
It’s hilarious, really. How could anyone have thought that last Saturday’s rout might have impelled some introspection or change on this stupid political party?
Have any small-l Libs been returned? Are the slightly-right now being redesignated as lefty moderates? Might as well give Pauline Hanson a gig as Lib leader. Or recall Craig Kelly.
Kos Samaras
Why did the teals win? Science.
Not only because of their commitment to taking action on climate change. But their belief in good data
They worked with us to reform our seat based polling. New weighting methodologies. New ways at looking using data to win. More in this image https://t.co/3lGgkiQbjU
BK @ #51 Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 – 7:55 am
Gosh, what a surprise that the AFR now thinks Labor’s adoption of the Abbott “direct action” policy means the climate debate is now over, and that their inadequate target of 43% is the furthest we should contemplate going. Let’s all just ignore the fact that both the COALition and Labor have had their primary vote slashed because of a voter revolt primarily over inadequate climate policy.
… they scream. Journalistic integrity, on the other hand … 🙁
It’s a joke. Almost as funny as those Labor partisans who – now that Labor has finally stopped trying to walk both sides of the street and come down in favor of coal mining – can’t seem to see any relationship between closing coal mines and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Still, let’s face it – neither of these can compare with the real gut-buster of the last day or so, which is the poster here on PB who thinks that Labor should not cooperate with either the Greens or the Teals, but instead partner with the Nationals, those staunch defenders of science-based climate policy!
We are indeed now living through the looking glass 🙁
So, P1: who did you preference over the other? Phillips, or Constance?
I see that the Anything But Labor Constance Luvvie is back to decant some cant.
Labor has been slaughtered on the climate wedge by the Coalition and the Greens for a decade. That decade saw the nation trashed by that wedge.
Labor got smart and avoided the Coalition/Greens sucker punch this election. It went to the election with an absolutely clear set of climate policies that have been modeled to reduce our emissions by 43% by 2030.
Naturally the Anything But Labor Constance Luvvies find this intensely irritating.
If Australians wet behind the ears voters fell for the Greens sucker bait that they could and would Save the Planet and Save the Reef when 98% of emissions being generated beyond Australia’s borders then that is their dopey lookout.
As for the coal mines wedge, it simply does not matter where the coal comes from. If China and India want to burn more coal they will. Simple as that.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #116 Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 – 9:16 am
Still obsessed, AE? Is there someone you could talk to about it?
Getting a bit over this line that the teals have all been voted in because of the inability of the “TWO major party’s” to take action on climate change..
Listening to ABC radio and other MSM outlets the last three days this seems to be the line they are pushing…
Its almost as if Labor hasnt spent the last decade and a half trying to implement and promote climate change policies in the face of massive Coalition scare campaigns all supported and egged on by the MSM!!..
‘Marine scientists say Australia’s carbon emission reduction targets must accelerate under the nation’s new-look parliament if the Great Barrier Reef is to be saved.’
Surely these scientists are not stupid enough to suggest that any Australian government can save the Reef? 98% of the emissions that are killing the Reef right now come from outside the Australia. Australia could shift from being net zero to sucking up 2% of the rest of the world’s emissions and it STILL would not save the Reef.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/great-barrier-reef-future-relies-on-ambitious-climate-targets/101094686
‘pattern against user says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:23 am
Getting a bit over this line that the teals have all been voted in because of the inability of the “TWO major party’s” to take action on climate change..
….’
====================
Yep. The ‘same old same old’ framing has been internalized. Still, three years of Labor will force a change in that framing.
Sigh…. now it’s over. After 10 years of constant idiocy and corruption we’ve got good government almost overnight.
It’s now possible to go about our lives and not worry too much about what nasty, spiteful thing the government will do to one or another disadvantaged minority.
It’s actually left a void, what will fill it now?
– I suppose we can always watch which way the Liberal party decides to crab walk (my expectation is further right with Dutton and in doing so push the likes of One Nation and UAT further away from the centre) and rejoice in the fact that they are facing a long time in the wilderness.
– We can watch the Fox News and Newcorp headlines get ever more strident as they get ever less relevant to mainstream Australia.
– We definitely need a Federal ICAC with PUBLIC hearings as soon as possible, I expect years of entertainment and schadenfreude
– By-elections, lots of by-elections as FICAC uncover corruption and politicians resign to defend themselves
– Watching an actual parliament where real debate happens with a question time where (and I know this is radical), questions are answered.
What else can fill the hole left by Morrison and the RWNJ’s?
Scott , you said Labor was going to get 90+ seats. It looks like somewhere between 76-78 , thoughts ?
“ Still obsessed, AE? Is there someone you could talk to about it?”
Still can’t answer a straight question, P1: only repeat endless diatribes of ‘same-same’ Labor slut shaming. … So, I’ll keep asking, as long as you keep bullshitting.
So if it’s not same same , will Labor veto the Scarborough gas project in WA? It single-handedly blows labor’s 43 % emissions target out of the water.
Surely Labor will be saying no go to Woodside ?
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:28 am
Scott , you said Labor was going to get 90+ seats. It looks like somewhere between 76-78 , thoughts ?
———————————————————–
Not much i can say except that i was wrong , the bright side is Morrison and his cronies are in opposition
Is the seat of Brisbane going to the fibs?
Now 18 children and 3 adults dead at the Texas school.
I was wrong about the teals , I thought Labor would get 78 seats but I thought the Liberals would hold the teal seats and get sort of mid 60’s in seats.
I don’t think anybody picked the greens winning 3 or 4 seats (except Griffith)
@Victoria… no.
Why would you think that?
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:28 am
Scott , you said Labor was going to get 90+ seats. It looks like somewhere between 76-78 , thoughts ?
The Liberals lost. Labor are forming government. But this is not the best of it, Liberals lost their blue ribbons seats to the Teals, and even better, the wankers from Sky News: forget your base, go harder, the right ring nutter vote is your salvation ( no seats held), thoughts?
AE, the non reply says it all. The antivaxxer nutcase independent had Fiona last, could be the difference.
Victoria @ #127 Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 – 9:34 am
Massively unlikely.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 7:49 am
14 students and a teacher have died in a “horrific … incomphrensible” shooting at a primary school in Texas.
Authorities believe the shooter was an 18-year-old man from Uvalde, and “it is believed responding officers killed him”.
”
Both this and Buffalo, NY, mass killing shooters are Teenagers.
In earlier decades, US military killed millions of people in other countries in the name of protecting their people. Now it appears people of US are killing their own people in large numbers. No rule of law only rule of jungle as depicted in those violemt Hollywood movies and video games. 🙁
This all started with Howard. Before Howard Australia was well on the way despite her many faults to becoming a tolerant and open-minded liberal democracy by Western standards.
The Liberal Party got away for nearly a generation (26 years) courting the Howard battlers and low-education aspirational class while preserving the inner urban upper class which was already lost to the GOP. It thought it could get away with the best of both worlds and even I thought it would continue to do so. It seems amazingly that now the Sword of Damocles has finally fallen upon them.
To bad for the Libs I say Charles.
Still if the Teals are a halfway house to Labor good for political hacks.
Who wouldn’t pick Wentworth over werriwa as a place to live eh?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/25/federal-election-live-day-five/comment-page-3/#comment-3924128
Weird system, the Prez is also referred to as chief executive, as if a corporation rather than a commonwealth.
Starbucks for coffee.
Beer full of water.
55 MPH on highways. Then again their cars have weird suspension. (Though Toyotas and KIAs are as prevalent as here.)
Self regulation (Boeing).
Abortion …
Guns are legal.
Watching Netflix last night, one of their 2001 Sep 11 shows.
The old new Rome and all that.
Pretty sure Sun Tzu observed you can have wealth or be at war.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:42 am
To bad for the Libs I say Charles.
So what in your view comes next? Dutton is no Menzies, in my view it needs a Menzies to sort out the mess left behind by the long line of swinging dicks.
Player One @ #115 Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 – 7:11 am
You obviously didn’t see the comments late last night.
Apologies for the long copy and paste, but I’m enjoying this very much. Albo reports:
(guardian live stream)
“Voice Endeavoursays:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:02 am
The Dai Le thing is a non issue. Yes, she may be inelliglbe. If she is, the House will refer her to the High Court, she’ll be found inelligible, there will be a by-election and it’ll be won by Dai Le.
Labor are not completely tone deaf. If they have a single shred of common sense, they won’t put a candidate up in a Fowler by election”
This is so dumb. Why would Labor not contest a seat that it has nearly always held with a long term lib member “independent” in it?
Speaking of a shred of common sense
Anyway, obviously what would be dumb would be to run KK again instead of Tu Le.
Good morning comrades.
Any talk of anything other than a constitutional amendment to introduce a Voice put by referendum within twelve months should be perfunctorily dismissed.
The Racial Discrimination Act shows us what happens to legislated rights when it comes to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: it was suspended and the Army sent in to Aboriginal communities on a trumped up basis by the Howard government.
The Australian legislature cannot be trusted with Indigenous rights, they must be constitutionally protected.
The ABC’s Senate Calculator now lists the 6th WA seat as Likely for the ALP. If that holds true, then ALP/GRN would hold 38 seats, and only need one more vote to pass bills, with Pocock and/or JLN probably the most likely sources.
Don’t know – see how Albo goes in the current term?
October budget will show Labor’s real choices.
Looks like a realignment – but it won’t be sealed till one of the 2 major parties accept 2 party system is kaput and no longer in their interests.
Are the teals permanent ? Maybe , if the economy tanks under Labor (which looks likely) some of those teals voters may come home to momma.
VE: ” If they have a single shred of common sense, they won’t put a candidate up in a Fowler by election”
lol. If you think the ALP won’t put up a candidate in a bi-election in a seat that used to be safe, you’ve got rocks in your head.
”
Tony Abbott’s advice to the Liberal Party not to focus too much on regaining the lost blue-ribbon heartland of Australia’s richest real estate but to look to less well-off outer suburbs for renewal and revival is spot-on, opines Dennis Shanahan.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/stop-overreacting-tony-abbott-sees-hope-in-suburbs-and-regions/news-story/6eddbff43dc8c60dcc43863a2cf1ab8b
”
Dennis Shanahan is an absolute shill. With friends like this LNP doesn’t have to look for enemies.
Allegra Spender warning the Libs about moving further right.
It was interesting to see the David Pakman videocast yesterday (with thanks) pointing out to American viewers how far left Labor is on their spectrum, the spectrum that would call our Liberals socialists.
Looks like Brisbane will either be Labor or Green – whoever finishes 2nd on primaries. If Alp finishes 2nd (and they are in front now & with a higher number of prefs and will get the bulk of LNP prefs over Greens) Labor is more likely. Lib cannot really win. It will probably finish like Justine Elliotts seat – once it is 2cp between Lab & Green – prefs will jump for ALP.
“ I was wrong about the teals , I thought Labor would get 78 seats but I thought the Liberals would hold the teal seats and get sort of mid 60’s in seats.
I don’t think anybody picked the greens winning 3 or 4 seats (except Griffith)”
Yep, not to many geniuses at work predicting the final outcome.
The mainstream pollsters seem to be as off – albeit in differing ways – as in 2019.
My own prediction of 53 2PP was based on an assumption that labor’s PV would be high 35 to mid 36%, and the Greens wouldn’t top 11%. I had hoped that half a dozen Liberal jewels would fall to the Teals, but didn’t think it would actually happen. I didn’t think the Greens would be so competitive in three cornered contests as they were this election (although in the longer term I’ve always thought that inner city seats in Melbourne and Sydney, and to a lesser extent Brisbane would contract Green cancer. I’m now pondering whether there may be a further evolution over the course of this decade in those 9 seats to each being a perennial Green vs Teal contest, with neither major getting a look in).