Federal election live: day five

The three seats that might potentially get Labor over the line to a majority remain up in the air, as more distant prospects for them fade further from view.

Click here for full federal election results updated live.

My system today called Bass and Wannon for the Liberals and Wentworth for Allegra Spender, the latter being the first gain called for the teal independents, although I don’t doubt there will be four and probably five to follow. Postals continue to be added in large numbers, although they will start to diminish henceforth. As noted below, one of the biggest developments today arose from rechecking. Tomorrow we are apparently see numbers from electronic-assisted telephone voting added, which is exciting because I have absolutely no idea about their partisan tendency and how many there will be.

The latest from the three seats that could potentially push Labor over the line to a majority:

Brisbane. Kevin Bonham’s post-count post suggests the AEC is conducting an unusual indicative three-candidate preferred count to determine which out of Labor and the Greens will drop out and deliver the seat to the other. However, I’ve heard no official word on this. Based on the preference distribution in 2019, my earlier assessment was that Labor would need a buffer on the primary vote to hold out against preferences to the Greens from Animal Justice, and even to some extent from the right-wing parties, more of whose preferences went to the Greens than Labor (though a great deal more again went to the LNP). However, as with one or two of my other early assessments, this may have failed to fully account for the substantial increase in postal votes this time, which are being true to form in being weak for the Greens. Labor now leads the Greens on the primary vote, but it will need to further boost the margin if my surmise about preference flows is borne out.

Gilmore. Labor had a very handy boost of 382 votes in rechecking that was mostly down to the Gerringong booth, where the two-candidate figures had been entered the wrong way around. This apparently put Labor in the lead briefly on the raw count, but the Liberals recovered it when a small batch of postals favoured them 701-521, with Andrew Constance currently 104 votes ahead. Postals will no doubt continue to favour Constance, but the bulk of them are now out of the way. Still to come are declaration pre-polls, which should break about evenly; absents, which should boost Labor by maybe 300; provisionals, which should add a couple of dozen for Labor; and electronic-assisted votes, which I continue to have no idea about.

Lyons. This is the first result I’ve looked at where the second batch of postals was observably different from the first, going 1024-910 to Liberal compared with 2966-2857 to Labor. If the outstanding postals break like the latest batch, Labor’s current lead of 703 votes will be cut in half. That makes it very close, but there is no specific reason to expect the other outstanding votes will move the dial in either direction.

Elsewhere, Labor continues to be buried on postals in Deakin, the latest batch breaking 3715-2584 to the Liberals. Yesterday I asserted that outstanding postals should add around 1000 to Michael Sukkar’s lead, but this batch alone adds to 1131. From here Labor will need stronger than anticipated absents and/or declaration pre-polls, and/or for the enigma of electronic assisted voting. I would personally call Menzies for the Liberals now even though my system doesn’t yet have it past the 99% threshold, yesterday’s postals having broken 3715-2584 in their favour.

After a quiet day in Curtin on Monday, a second batch of postals were added that favoured Liberal member Celia Hammond 4464-2950, a similar proportion to the first batch. This suggests the outstanding postals will bite a further 1000 or so out of independent Kate Chaney’s 1842 vote lead. However, the Liberals were relatively weak on absent votes in the seat in 2019, and there’s little reason to think out-of-division pre-polls will be particularly favourable to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,036 thoughts on “Federal election live: day five”

  1. Splinters

    Well, Cathy MacGowan admitted that she’d got nothing she’d asked for in Liberal budgets. (She basically stopped recording her Budget requests to avoid embarrassment).

    Part of the reason Haines supports an ICAC is because she felt the electorate was missing out (some local organisations missed out of funding due to ‘sports rorts’).

    At every election, the local doctors beg people to make the seat marginal because they’ve spent years trying to get improvements to local health services but can’t get attention. (Mirabella, for example, said Wangaratta hospital would have received $10 million if she’d been re elected – that money is still needed).

    Haines put forward a multi million set of Budget requests leading into the last Budget.

    Basically, we get the grandstanding so that we don’t notice what we’re not getting.

    And it depends what you mean by representation. The majority of Indi residents are relatively poor and uneducated. Haines doesn’t represent them. Indeed, if you look at the assumptions behind some of her policies, she doesn’t know they exist. (Mirabella didn’t either, of course…)

  2. Is there any evidence Dai Le’s citizenship status was brought up or questioned by the ALP?
    Seemed to spring out of nowhere as far as i can see.

  3. About this Voldemort thing, not being a fan of Harry Potter I had to google image him and all I could find was a bunch of photos of Peter Dutton.

  4. Lars,

    Should cosmetic surgery be tax deductible for politicians?

    How about rather than this non sequitur, you answer my comment from above:

    Many have said this, but I will quote George Orwell (Eric Arthur Blair): “At 50, everyone has the face he deserves.”

    Dutton chooses to appear like a cartoon or fantasy villain (e.g. Voldemort). He chooses to have a shaved head, and prefers to dress in “Mussolini” black.

    He also chose to turn Australian customs and immigration into “Border Force”, and dress them all in military black.

    So, can you tell me again why you thing the way Peter Dutton looked is just an accident of genetics?

  5. Taylormade at 9:52 pm

    I don’t have much confidence in her either.

    Quite understandable Taylor. Your crew really did manage a royal Fubar of our relationship with the ‘neighbours’ and left it for Labor to try and clean up..

  6. Douglas and Milko says:

    Many have said this, but I will quote George Orwell (Eric Arthur Blair): “At 50, everyone has the face he deserves.
    As much as I love Orwell he is not at his best here. For one, it would mean the Elephant Man must have been one of the worst people of all time. Meanwhile Joseph Stalin with his magnificent Walrus mustache would seem rather benign.

  7. I dont think the issue is what the Libs did or didnt do in the Pacific – nor is it what Wong does or doesn’t do now.

    I think labor has defined it this way because of the election and the SI issue.

    Its what relationship we want to have with China. Its unrealistic to think China wont be able to break its way into the Pacific with cash and influence.

    Arguably China buying off SI and what its doing now – is its response to Australia signing up to Aukus and being part of the Quad. Last I checked this part was bipartisan.

  8. steve davis at 9.43

    “Sky after dark should be renamed Sky News Unhinged.”

    Given their ratings, shouldn’t it be Sky News Unbinged?

  9. LVT

    D&M – I’m going to break my explanation rule a second time tonight.

    My reference to wongs trip being expensive – is not the actual cost of the trip but how much Australia is going to have to fork out in aid and other promises to these countries. She’s presumably not going empty handed.

    Bloody Hell!!

    Australia is one of the wealthiest nations, especially per capita, in the Asia-Pacific region, and you are worried about our spend on aid in the region?

    As I said, you really do not understand that providing aid to countries in our region aids the enormous efforts they are putting into “bootstrapping” themselves to provide food, shelter and education for their people, and yes, developing that rather productive middle-class. The aid money has a multiplier effect.

  10. Long before a federal ICAC is able to do anything, the Murdoch Rag media will assist Dutton to a landslide in 2025. And the MPs for the Teal seats will probably be replaced by conservative Liberals as Labor fall to the 40-60 2pp depths of the Gillard era.

    Eventually, FICAC may be just another mouthpiece for an entrenched right-wing one-party effective-dictatorship.

  11. D&M I dont have a problem with aid and I think it should be 0.75% of gdp (as per the Un goal for wealthy countries).

    If we want to give aid for altruistic reasons that’s fine – I just dont think we can win auctions with china in the pacific. If we quintupled our aid (thinking it could stop China) they could still easily match and exceed that if they were so minded.

  12. Of course the years are unkind to us all, and to some they are very unkind. I seem to be getting better looking as I go, although I’m sure there’s an inevitable cliff approaching.

  13. I realise this goes without saying, but I’ll say it…

    Don’t worry about engaging with Lars, Taylormade et al.

    They read the scoreboard, they’re not happy.

  14. Sky is great, where else can you see Peta Credlin wailing about ‘shrill demands for the Liberal party to move to the extreme Green Left’ . Comedy gold.

  15. “GlenOsays:
    Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 5:21 pm
    The Revisionist @ #601 Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 – 4:26 pm

    Gleno, I reckon you might want to read up on Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem….


    I think your concern for the Liberal party voters’ having their 2nd and subsequent preferences not come in to play may be eased by the knowledge that there are no voting systems where desirable outcomes (which are often subjective in and of themselves) are all met

    I’m actually a mathematician, and am quite aware of that theorem. It doesn’t quite say what you think it says – it says that those three specific “fairness” rules cannot simultaneously hold. This doesn’t mean that one can’t improve the fairness of the system.

    I’m not advocating for trying to make the perfect system. I just see a specific hole in the current system that could be patched without giving anything else up.

    If one candidate loses when pitted against each other candidate (that remains in contention), then they should be eliminated, because they can’t possibly win. Given that the purpose of the count is to determine which candidate wins, it seems unfair to keep a candidate in the count that can’t win, no matter which other candidate is in the count.

    It removes a certain kind of spoiler candidate, but otherwise doesn’t impede on the usual process.”

    GlenO, sorry, but I made no assertion that a system cannot be “improved” or that Arrow’s theorem established that.

    You are asserting that moving from a pure instant run-off to some kind of hybrid where you intervene with 3 candidates left and rule out any candidate that wouldn’t defeat either of the other two is necessarily an improvement.

    But then why wouldn’t you introduce this at the point where 4 candidates are left? A fourth placed candidate could plausibly beat all other candidates in a run-off however they would still be eliminated in your Instant-Run-Off-But-With-Condorcet method-Kicking-in-at-3CP-Method.

    The problem is that you are compromising the elegance and relative simplicity of the pure instant run off approach. You have not gone close to establish (necessarily subjectively) that that is worth while

  16. For many years we ignored S44. There was a bit of a flap in the 90s when a private citizen wanted to challenge a Labor MP he didn’t like. Then everyone forgot about it for a couple of decades before it became a big thing in the 2010s.

    Maybe we should just agree to forget about it again.

  17. Poroti the next 3 years could be a golden age for Sky After Dark. I think Opposition suits those sort of programs better.

    Kenny, Credlin , Paul Murray they’ll spend the next 2.5 years outraged before the GG steps in to end the show.

  18. Here is the view from the NSW Libs. About as much reflection as a broken mirror.

    1. We should move further to the right, Teals are lefties and not true Libs
    2. Labor PV is pathetic whilst ignoring Libs in low 20’s
    3. No acknowledgement of Labor strategic voting
    4. The greens will attack Labor seats
    5. Everyone will tire of woke politics so Peter Dutton perfectly placed to win
    6. Debt will be out of control proving Labor can’t manage the economy
    7. FICAC won’t prosecute anyone in next 3 years
    8. Labor will start knifing each other per RGR
    9. Perottet will be running on a stop the wall to wall labor platform

    wow, just wow. Should email this to Sportsbet to see what it does to the betting. If Albo was to one day ever hand the reigns over to say Chalmers, we could be looking at a dynasty.

  19. “Wong set the standard with SI – if China does a deal with a sovereign state (SI) its a failure and a 50 year failure at that in Australian diplomacy.“

    This is like having a house catch fire after a poorly disciplined child was caught playing with matches.
    The fire brigade turns up to try to put the fire out.
    As it does so the undisciplined child says the house burning down was the fire brigade’s fault.

  20. Socratessays:
    “Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:10 pm
    A Greens post on facebook claimed that Greens had won 3 of the five electorates with the most young voters with one undecided.

    The electorates with most 18-24 voters they claimed were:
    Melbourne, Brisbane, Griffith, Canberra, Ryan.

    Any thoughts on this? Is their demographic claim correct? Will this trend solidy or people drift in and out of the Greens?”

    I would suggest that this might explain why the Greens have not continued to make inroads in to gentrifying seats at the rate they may have assumed they would a decade ago. That is, there is some vote atrophy as people grow up a bit and shed some naivety . It could also explain why they went so heavy on those Brisbane seats this year.

  21. Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    Poroti the next 3 years could be a golden age for Sky After Dark. I think Opposition suits those sort of programs better.
    Absolutely. Which is how they operated during MT’s reign and quite effectively.

    If Labor members have any brains, they will stay well away from SKY. The fact that some haven’t already indicates to me they aren’t that savvy.

  22. nath says:
    Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 10:09 pm
    “Of course the years are unkind to us all, and to some they are very unkind. I seem to be getting better looking as I go, although I’m sure there’s an inevitable cliff approaching.”

    cliff = mirror
    cure = alcohol

  23. It’s a bit of a worry that a woman who thinks that the “extreme Green left” is represented by someone like Zali Steggall, Simon Holmes á Court or maybe even Malcolm Turnbull was once arguably the second or third most powerful person in the country (behind Abbott and Murdoch).

  24. Murdoch is 91 and close to dropping his bundle a la Howard, by many reports from insiders within the news ltd media organisation his son Lachlan is no Albert Einstein. Murdoch family will sell the loss making news papers like the Australian, Courier etc leaving many loyal right wing journos out of work and embittered. Australia will warm to an honest hard-working PM- Albo after years of lazy LNP leaders . Dutton will never be PM because rest of Australia does not like Qlders ( I’m one of them so I know), next liberal PM not even in parliament yet.

  25. D & M at 10.05 re Australia’s comparative wealth…

    Many don’t realise the power of our economy.

    Of all nations in the Western Pacific, we have the 3rd largest GDP, after China and Japan. We have the 12th to 14th largest GDP globally (both nominally and measured in USD.)

  26. @Steve777

    She’s still probably the fourth most powerful person in the country, after Murdoch, Abbott and Dutton (tie for second).

  27. Thanks Zoomster. Good to know. There are a lot of promises from politicians in govt and opposition and they are never guaranteed. It’s been 9 years of LNP govts so hopefully there is a change for the better for Indi with the new govt.

  28. To be fair to the SMH “nothing terrible happened… what a relief” article, it was basically contrasting the benign visit by Albanese against all the international relations blunders made by Morrison over the years.

  29. Lars,

    If you actually paid attention during the recent election campaign, instead of spouting your usual shit, you would know that Labor announced increased aid funding for the Pacific region.

  30. @Mick

    And yet more than 48% of the electorate preferred the Morrison government to an alternative one. Proves Murdoch remains the Khamenei of the South.

  31. I read an article suggesting Peter Dutton fate could go the way Brendan Nelson who never got to contest a election.

    I think Dutton is overrated as politician but without Josh Frydenberg there. I don’t see any serious contenders to replace him which will work in his favor. Angus Taylor and Dan Tehan are still relatively unknown.

    Interestingly Dutton will be the first federal Liberal outside NSW since Alexander Downer in 1995. All Liberal prime ministers have came from NSW and VIC.

  32. Princeplanet
    I would think they will never sell their loss-leader papers because they push mindset-setting onto their low-info readers, to getting what they want from a Liberal government….
    Hmmm…. now I think about it,
    a) they lost the election as much as the L/NP
    b) they went as close to authoritarianism and they still made few inroads that mattered in the end
    c) their only hope is that all people didn’t like was Morrison. They think the rest of the L/NP is the bees knees and they just can’t wait to vote them back in now SfM is gone.

    Given they won’t get c) (even though their minds believe it will come like divine provenance) in 2025, maybe then they will let them go.

    Given they are authoritarians who see the world as transactional and act like soldiers in an army and double-down when needed (all the time) and will die on many hills many times over, they will probably never let them go.

  33. For BK, Socrates, Toorak Toff and the “croweaters” – what was most interesting in SA this election?

    A comment about the national implications of the surprisingly poor current Labor Senate vote in SA.

    Apart from Sharkie holding Mayo, no Indies were remotely successful in SA (Habermann got 11.2% in Grey and Dyer 6.6% in Boothby, with no entrant among the 11 candidates in Sturt).

    What was peculiar, or a bit strange, about the overall result in SA (given the recent State election)?

    Perhaps the relatively poor Labor vote in the Senate, as so far counted (65%). In the March SA state election the Labor PV was 40%. In this Senate election for SA it is hovering around 33%. That’s a big drop. By contrast, the Libs dropped from 35.7% in March to 33.1% (just above Labor) in the Senate.

    If the Libs win the 6th SA Senate seat, Pocock is a mathematical beneficiary, because that will make his vote crucial. Labor should win 3 Senate seats in WA (the first time Labor has won 3 out of 6 there) and 2 in all other states and one in each territory, giving 15 new senators of the 26 Labor senators from July. Greens will win 6 for a total of 12 from July. Pocock makes 39 with Labor and Greens.

    If the Labor Senate vote had dropped only 4% from the State election in March, that may have been enough for Labor to get a third SA senator elected. In that case, Pocock would be icing, not in the cake.

    There is a somewhat different most interesting story for each state in 2022. WA is the clearly most significant and decisive. In Victoria, there are two stories: the fact that Labor won two seats with strong swings (including Higgins, which it had never won before) under a Labor leader from NSW, when the previous leader from Victoria had not gained any seats (excluding those benefitting from redistributions) at two attempts; and the outstanding success of Dr Ryan and Ms Daniel in Kooyong and Goldstein, in also winning seats that the Libs had never previously lost.

  34. LVT

    If we want to give aid for altruistic reasons that’s fine – I just dont think we can win auctions with china in the pacific. If we quintupled our aid (thinking it could stop China) they could still easily match and exceed that if they were so minded.

    Why do you think the aim is to “stop china”? Why would we want to “stop China?” It is an important part of our region for trade, industry , innovation and science. We would like China to be improve its position on human rights, particularly on how it treats its its own citizens, but there is nothing to be gained by taking the “big stick” approach.

    The aid is literally to help our region succeed economically and socially, not to “challenge” China. It is, as well as altruism, diplomatically so that we seem at least as involved as China, which seems only fair to me.

    Scientists like me (and other researchers / academics) use soft-power every day of every week of every year to work with China. And, guess what, the Chinese and other East Asian academics want what we want – good relationships in our region, and a decent life for all people.

    We are actually all the human race, and I cannot discern any differences between me and my other colleagues, from a multitude of countries / regions, that could make you think that the people of China are in some sort competition with the people of Australia to outspend each other in the Asia – Pacific region, so that one community over another gains supremacy.

    That is just not how humans work.

  35. @nightwatchman

    Brendan Nelson was a wishy washy transactional disposable ex-Labor rat. Dutton is the real deal, the darling of the MSM Rag. They’ll sell their own mother to get him over the line at the next election.

  36. Maybe its late and I haven’t expressed myself well or maybe I’ve been too flippant – but I think we are arguing the same point D&M.

  37. Snappy tom @ 10:32 pm

    D & M at 10.05 re Australia’s comparative wealth…

    Many don’t realise the power of our economy.

    Of all nations in the Western Pacific, we have the 3rd largest GDP, after China and Japan. We have the 12th to 14th largest GDP globally (both nominally and measured in USD.)

    Thanks so much for these facts.

    Also, love your posts here!

  38. nathsays:
    Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:28 pm
    Ven says:

    Why are you hot under the collar when LNP MP name is mentioned for investigation regarding use of Office resources for branch stacking. You were rabbiting on about Vic Labor branch stacking and gave us live running commentary about it when Victorian integrity commission investigated Live.
    You misunderstand me again Ven. I’d love it if Sukkar was investigated. I’d like all of them to be investigated, how bout you?

    I only want those people investigated against whom there is evidence irrespective of their party affiliation.

  39. Poroti
    “Sky is great …”
    Yeah I kind of wished I could have seen their reaction on election night – calm and hopeful for the first half hour then go the shrill I imagine.
    Election day I was allocated a booth in Blair to give out Greens HTV’S. Libby’s booths were already fully manned in my electorate of Ryan. Caught up with an old friend on the Liberal booth. Had some conversations and jokes with the ALP gang. Returned a recycled HTV to the One Nation guy. As I was walking away he said ” dirty rat”. I looked back at him in surprise and he had a look of unbridled hatred on his face. Anyway as I write One Nation dropped 6.78% in Blair – 2% behind the Greens on 12.1%. He who laughs last aye?

  40. Ven says:

    I only want those people investigated against whom there is evidence irrespective of their party affiliation
    Well the evidence against Sukkar only eventuated from a 60 Minutes investigation. Same with the Labor stuff. So it seems that evidence will only be provided if a media organization does an investigation. Not the best way for a Federal integrity body to go about things.

  41. The IBAC investigation btw amounted to a show trial against the Somyurek faction. None of the other labor factions were similarly investigated for behaviour everyone knows they have undertaken. Well played Dan. Well played.

  42. Re S44. See King O Malley has gone MIA 🙂 namesake bullshitted his way through a 20 year career, then admits he’s really a Yank on his deathbed. Classic.

  43. Happyez: these papers mean the world to Rupert Murdoch but the others most likely think of Australia as the pissant place where the old man grew up. After he goes they will sell leaving many right wing journos out on the street and extremely rueful.

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