Click here for full federal election results updated live.
My system today called Bass and Wannon for the Liberals and Wentworth for Allegra Spender, the latter being the first gain called for the teal independents, although I don’t doubt there will be four and probably five to follow. Postals continue to be added in large numbers, although they will start to diminish henceforth. As noted below, one of the biggest developments today arose from rechecking. Tomorrow we are apparently see numbers from electronic-assisted telephone voting added, which is exciting because I have absolutely no idea about their partisan tendency and how many there will be.
The latest from the three seats that could potentially push Labor over the line to a majority:
Brisbane. Kevin Bonham’s post-count post suggests the AEC is conducting an unusual indicative three-candidate preferred count to determine which out of Labor and the Greens will drop out and deliver the seat to the other. However, I’ve heard no official word on this. Based on the preference distribution in 2019, my earlier assessment was that Labor would need a buffer on the primary vote to hold out against preferences to the Greens from Animal Justice, and even to some extent from the right-wing parties, more of whose preferences went to the Greens than Labor (though a great deal more again went to the LNP). However, as with one or two of my other early assessments, this may have failed to fully account for the substantial increase in postal votes this time, which are being true to form in being weak for the Greens. Labor now leads the Greens on the primary vote, but it will need to further boost the margin if my surmise about preference flows is borne out.
Gilmore. Labor had a very handy boost of 382 votes in rechecking that was mostly down to the Gerringong booth, where the two-candidate figures had been entered the wrong way around. This apparently put Labor in the lead briefly on the raw count, but the Liberals recovered it when a small batch of postals favoured them 701-521, with Andrew Constance currently 104 votes ahead. Postals will no doubt continue to favour Constance, but the bulk of them are now out of the way. Still to come are declaration pre-polls, which should break about evenly; absents, which should boost Labor by maybe 300; provisionals, which should add a couple of dozen for Labor; and electronic-assisted votes, which I continue to have no idea about.
Lyons. This is the first result I’ve looked at where the second batch of postals was observably different from the first, going 1024-910 to Liberal compared with 2966-2857 to Labor. If the outstanding postals break like the latest batch, Labor’s current lead of 703 votes will be cut in half. That makes it very close, but there is no specific reason to expect the other outstanding votes will move the dial in either direction.
Elsewhere, Labor continues to be buried on postals in Deakin, the latest batch breaking 3715-2584 to the Liberals. Yesterday I asserted that outstanding postals should add around 1000 to Michael Sukkar’s lead, but this batch alone adds to 1131. From here Labor will need stronger than anticipated absents and/or declaration pre-polls, and/or for the enigma of electronic assisted voting. I would personally call Menzies for the Liberals now even though my system doesn’t yet have it past the 99% threshold, yesterday’s postals having broken 3715-2584 in their favour.
After a quiet day in Curtin on Monday, a second batch of postals were added that favoured Liberal member Celia Hammond 4464-2950, a similar proportion to the first batch. This suggests the outstanding postals will bite a further 1000 or so out of independent Kate Chaney’s 1842 vote lead. However, the Liberals were relatively weak on absent votes in the seat in 2019, and there’s little reason to think out-of-division pre-polls will be particularly favourable to them.
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nathsays:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 7:35 pm
yabba says:
The use of electorate officers for party-political purposes is a misuse of taxpayer funds and strictly prohibited.
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Let’s investigate the whole Parliament for this. How many would be left I wonder.
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Why are you hot under the collar when LNP MP name is mentioned for investigation regarding use of Office resources for branch stacking. You were rabbiting on about Vic Labor branch stacking and gave us live running commentary about it when Victorian integrity commission investigated Live.
Goll @ #879 Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 – 8:27 pm
Who?
zoomster says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 8:57 pm
Lars
Your own explanation, referring to a ‘friend’ being able to object, contradicts your second sentence.
It doesn’t have to be the Labor party.
And – as anyone who has paid the slightest attention knows – you can refer a sitting MP at any time (Barnaby, for example, had already served a couple of terms).
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Sure zoomster.
Individual people can bring a challenge – but its going to be a “friend” in reality . Labor might choose to have plausible deniability by getting a friendly stooge to do it.
And yes it can happen at any time – but the jurisdiction is the High Court sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns – so if you don’t challenge now Dai Le will sit in the HoR.
Issues around KK and running again (and Cabinet) may also be a factor in bringing a challenge now (if they think it has legs and they can win)
A Greens post on facebook claimed that Greens had won 3 of the five electorates with the most young voters with one undecided.
The electorates with most 18-24 voters they claimed were:
Melbourne, Brisbane, Griffith, Canberra, Ryan.
Any thoughts on this? Is their demographic claim correct? Will this trend solidy or people drift in and out of the Greens?
There’s no time limit dumbarse.
If you’re disqualified under s44 you’re disqualified.
“As someone who’s lived in an indie seat for 9 years now, grandstanding is ALL they do.
They have to – they can’t deliver”
Voters view the electoral system differently than party hacks though. The shit-show the two party system has been these last 15 years isn’t really delivering either wouldn’t you say. The mug punters seem increasingly keen to vote for independents and non-majors. Maybe they will deliver for the country. Maybe voters want more than someone who’ll vote for whatever their party wants with a few million in grants thrown in. Perhaps they have a different definition of delivering. Pretty easy to say the voters of an independent electorate are sucked in by grandstanding, but personally I’d say there’s a little more to it than that. I’d suggest if the duopoly groupies don’t want to lose their duopoly then the duops might want to get their shit together.
Its actually 18-29 but otherwise yes
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/electorates-where-young-people-have-most-power/13887530
I agree GoneMo.
Having watched the Cathy McGowan program on ABC last week – she is a very impressive individual as are the other Teal candidates/ now MP’s.
The test is could your MP be successful outside of politics – that’s clearly the case with the Teals but not so with most of the other MP’s of both major parties.
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Steve777says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 8:14 pm
Peter Dutton does look a lot like Voldemort. Cartoonists recognise it.
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But she doesn’t have to say it as Senior Labor leader.
GoneMo
I was considering responding to your post as if you were someone with a worthwhile point of view, but I’d suggest if you want to participate in discussion here – rather than ranting – you avoid referring to commentators as ‘party hacks’ and ‘duopoly groupies’.
That’s just as blinkered a position as one an actual party hack might take.
The media gonna go crazy re China in the Pacific. Got to keep those drum beats of war going and fuel old Dutton and his silly little play group. Doesn’t help with Wong continuing to call it the Pacific family which is patronising rubbish. An acceptance that China has a role to play and has historical and rightful nervousness about naval blockades would be a start.
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Wranslidesays:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 8:16 pm
That’s a bit of a poor comment from Tanya. Referring to someone by how they look in public discourse is pretty poor form. She will probably regret it.
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She should and apologise.
Lars
I agree, the Teals have impressive credentials. That (i) doesn’t mean they’ll be good MPs (history is littered with people with outstanding CVs who crashed and burned in Parliament) or that (ii) they will do anything other than grandstand.
In the case of Indi, we’ve had grandstanding, not delivery.
Of course, it’s not ‘woke’ to say so.
There will be many changes & achievements from this Labor government… one massive one… the end of moronic PR stunts… it’s not in Albanese’s character he will be issue driven.
Simon
Thanks, fair enough. The obvious implication is they will target similar seats in future.
This would be a differentiator between Greens and Teals if it holds. Teals seem to go for an older demographic.
Wranslide – Wong set the standard with SI – if China does a deal with a sovereign state (SI) its a failure and a 50 year failure at that in Australian diplomacy.
So if China now does a deal with 12 pacific states? What is that?
There is a time limit for petitions from the public:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Court_of_Disputed_Returns_(Australia)#Petition_by_individual_or_AEC
After that time only referrals from one of the parliamentary chambers will be heard.
Ven
I reckon Labor should just keep quiet to make sure Dutton waltzes in as leader. Don’t put any seeds of doubt.
He is categorically unelectable and for sure will lose his seat if opposition leader (qlders love creating a bit of havoc).
When he gets in don’t attack him straight away otherwise they will knife him and might put someone better in.
Personally I think he looks more like Mr Potato Head.
Imagine all the crying babies memes.
Anyway, I hope the Teals do well enough to get re elected!
Wranslide
No, I do not think she will live to regret this statement.
Many have said this, but I will quote George Orwell (Eric Arthur Blair): “At 50, everyone has the face he deserves.”
Dutton chooses to appear like a cartoon or fantasy villain (e.g. Voldemort). He chooses to have a shaved head, and prefers to dress in “Mussolini” black.
He also chose to turn Australian customs and immigration into “Border Force”, and dress them all in military black.
So, can you tell me again why you thing the way Peter Dutton looked is just an accident of genetics?
Ven says:
Why are you hot under the collar when LNP MP name is mentioned for investigation regarding use of Office resources for branch stacking. You were rabbiting on about Vic Labor branch stacking and gave us live running commentary about it when Victorian integrity commission investigated Live.
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You misunderstand me again Ven. I’d love it if Sukkar was investigated. I’d like all of them to be investigated, how bout you?
LaraVonTrier it will be a failure of the previous Government in reality. I am not a huge fan of Wong for lots of reasons but that deal wouldnt sit at her feet.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:24 pm
LVT… the Titanic took a while to sink, likewise the disaster that was the LNP… there are still consequences to flow from their incompetence, I’m sure Labor will point them out.
I agree that the Voldemort comment was unedifying from Plibersek. Leave appearances out of your critique please.
Appearances do matter. The Elephant Man never had a chance of running for elected office.
The problem with Labor is that they try too often not only to be decent people, but to appear to be decent people.
Tanya should not apologise. The Liberals can live with it.
There are much bigger issues that this nation has to grapple with than whether the prospective leader of the Opposition looks like a movie character portrayed by Ralph Fiennes.
Wranslide – I think the point is these States in the Pacific , can and will make their own choices. East Timor says it wants to have friendly relations with China – so its not Australia’s failure if E.Timor does deals with China. Wong defined failure if these States do have treaties etc with China.
It’s something we can advise against – but not something we can stop unless we want to get into bidding wars, sort of ok we give you 100m now – but if you promise not to sign this treaty we will make it 200m?
Also China can offer these people things we never could and wouldn’t have restrictions on bribery and the like which we do.
I cancelled Murdoch ‘s foxtel about 2 years ago and cited the completely biased After Dark extremist psychopaths as the reason. I had been a subscriber for about a decade. Obviously my little tantrum had no effect. It is an emphatic sign of just how deranged and personally compromised these nutjobs are as I hear that they are pushing for the Liberals to go further right after considering the election outcome. Nutjobs.
Looking at potential Liberal leaders who haven’t dodged blatant criminal corruption charges under scummos protection .. they really have no-one of any moral integrity with leadership experience. Easy pickings for Labor. Plibersek continues to show she is a weak politician and should drop to the back bench to just make up the numbers.
Should cosmetic surgery be tax deductible for politicians?
In C@t and Boerwar’s world ‘all parties are equal but some parties are more equal than others’ — two parties good four parties bad. Bah bah
If you give Dutton a white Persian cat and Mao jacket he could pass for Ernst Stavro Blofeld…
Ven should Labor politicians be investigated for nepotism?
You can’t employ your son or daughter, but if another Labor MP should happen to employ them , that’s fine? You ok with that?
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True Believersays:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:26 pm
Ven
I reckon Labor should just keep quiet to make sure Dutton waltzes in as leader. Don’t put any seeds of doubt.
He is categorically unelectable and for sure will lose his seat if opposition leader (qlders love creating a bit of havoc).
When he gets in don’t attack him straight away otherwise they will knife him and might put someone better in.
Personally I think he looks more like Mr Potato Head.
Imagine all the crying babies memes.
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We can call him on social media what ever we want to as long as it is not abusive and libel to that social media but politicians especially senior politicians should not be childish in their name calling. We didn’t like it when LNP did it and we should not like when ALP does it.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:36 pm
Should cosmetic surgery be tax deductible for politicians?
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It should be. I can’t wait to see what the pollies would come up with if they think it would help them climb the ladder.
They will.
However the art of diplomacy is to swing decisions in a way that is favourable to our national interest, and that can take many forms. If we have a strong friendly relationship maintained over a long time then these Pacific Island states will be much less likely to make decisions that they know we would be unhappy about.
If we chop and change and nickel and dime them and make joking insults and refuse to even pay lip service to their concerns, then they won’t be too concerned about how we feel about their decisions.
It’s not just about money. And certainly with healthy, close relationships it’s a lot easier (and cheaper) to get things going the way we want them to.
Unfortunately repairing our relationships will take time, effort and money over a sustained period of time.
Zoomster,
We often know our local MP better than those people from outside our electorate. However, is there an MP who is delivering in your opinion?
Also, what is not being delivered in the seat of Indi?
As an outsider, it would appear that there has been a vast improvement since Sophie Mirabella was the representative. Although, that was an extremely low bar.
Sky after dark should be renamed Sky News Unhinged.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 8:30 pm
There are 2 possibilities (if I am being polite)
1) You have absolutely no idea how economics, global regional relationships, and the avoidance of either hot or cold wars work to increase productivity in out globally connected world (e.g the Russia Ukraine war looks like killing a lot of people in third countries, purely because they will freeze or starve to death, or
2) Your only reason for participating in this blog is to derail genuine discussions about important political matters, and reduce them to the minutiae about whether Penny Wong is spending an unreasonable mount of money on travel – with no cost-benefit analysis whatsoever.
If point 2 applies, then you are the definition of a troll.
The argument that electorates should only vote for major parties able to pork barrel is not very convincing or satisfying.
Nah, I reckon Dutton is Lex Luthor from the original Superman movies
nath says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:33 pm
Appearances do matter. The Elephant Man never had a chance of running for elected
中华人民共和国
What if John Merrick was spelt John Mer-Rick?
Jackal, your defining it in a binary way.
If Australia is good – Pacific States wont do deals with China. More likely these states will want to have deals with China and be on good terms with Australia.
Australia saying now we have 43% emissions targets in 2030 – wont be a deciding factor.
Labor has defined failure as these States not having any treaties with China. Say China said to Fiji we will give you 1bn for a new hospital network – should we counter that with 1.1bn or should we expect Fiji to decline it because we are friends?
Of Course Fiji will take the cash.
D&M – I’m going to break my explanation rule a second time tonight.
My reference to wongs trip being expensive – is not the actual cost of the trip but how much Australia is going to have to fork out in aid and other promises to these countries. She’s presumably not going empty handed.
Regarding Dai Le’s possible dual citizenship disqualifying her election as Fowler’s MP, I think if Labor has any notion to challenge, it should forget it.
It appears likely that Dai Le automatically lost her Vietnamese citizenship when she became an Australian citizen anyway, so no section 44 problems there.
If not, Labor should still forget it. In 1996, the party challenged Jackie Kelly’s election in the NSW seat of Lindsay on account of her Kiwi citizenship. The subsequent by-election saw Kelly substantially increase her margin from her narrow win in the general election.
It was clear the voters of Lindsay resented being forced to another election and probably saw Labor as sore losers for challenging. It’s likely the voters of Fowler would feel the same way.
If a by-election were forced, Labor could not very well put Kristina Keneally up again; that would be insulting the people of Fowler twice and ensure an even more decisive rejection.
In short, Labor would probably have little to gain and much to lose from challenging Dai Le’s election.
It was a shame Kristina Keneally’s political career ended so prematurely and in this way, but I think they have to suck it up and move on.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 9:24 pm
“Wong set the standard with SI – if China does a deal with a sovereign state (SI) its a failure and a 50 year failure at that in Australian diplomacy.
So if China now does a deal with 12 pacific states? What is that?”
Of course that’s gotta be true. Labor has been in power for 72 hours now. We need to start holding them accountable. Another test, eh?
At least Wong has set forth to try and speak to the island nations. More than her predecessor did.
Lars – if anyone here is reducing things to a simplistic binary it is you.
The point is that the previous government simply didn’t believe in diplomacy. They didn’t believe in foreign aid. They didn’t believe in anything that couldn’t be directly converted into votes at home.
The Solomon Islands decision is a serious issue for us. We can never know if Australia putting more effort into our relationship with the Solomon Islands would have prevented them coming to the deal with China, but it’s fair to say that Australia did sweet fuck all to win hearts and minds to head it off.
Anyway, I don’t have enough respect for your bullshit to bother engaging in any depth so – enjoy your stirring.
Mavissays:
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 at 8:56 pm
Wong’s visit may be too late.
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Making excuses for her already Mavis.
I don’t have much confidence in her either.
sprocket_ @ #898 Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 – 8:54 pm
I think this Dai Le s44 stuff is pretty nonsense, she seems perfectly eligible, however what interests me is her declaration itself.
Where she has answered ‘no’ to ever holding any other citizenship. Likewise a ‘no’ to her parents ever holding another citizenship. The latter being edited from previous answers of ‘yes’ and initialled.
Unsure what that could constitute as far as false declarations go
EDIT Correction: She marked the question regarding her parents as ‘N/A’
LOL headline from the SMH ……… and it’s true .
‘I was considering responding to your post as if you were someone with a worthwhile point of view, but I’d suggest if you want to participate in discussion here – rather than ranting – you avoid referring to commentators as ‘party hacks’ and ‘duopoly groupies’.
That’s just as blinkered a position as one an actual party hack might take.”
Just trying to fit in.