Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7

Essential Research joins in on the tightening race narrative, although it gets there through preferences rather than primary votes. Also featured: many seat polls, one of which has independent Kate Chaney leading in Curtin, and even polls for the Senate.

The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.

My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.

Other polling news:

The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.

Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.

Samantha Maiden of reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.

• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.

• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.

Senate news:

• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.

The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.

• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.

Non-polling news:

Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.

Samantha Maiden of reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.

• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7”

Comments Page 17 of 20
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  1. BTRProducer says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:41 pm

    Glad to hear you’re all stocked up and ready to go Evan. I have a 6 pack a 500ml cans of a cold frothy beverage, a good bottle of Barossa Shiraz, a bottle of fizzy white wine, and some Amarula just in case.

    So am prepared for all outcomes.

    I will wait till Friday to stock up, maybe some Smithys stubbies, currently $10 for half a dozen, maybe a bottle or to of SAs finest fizzy (last look on special at $6) and if all goes to crap there is half a bottle of truly awful green liquer stuff left over from years ago – by that time, I will be past caring.
    For food, either chinese yum cha bits, or chicken bits, or a big indian take away…..decisions decisions

  2. Early voting’s been a thing for a while. In theory, you need to provide a valid reason but it’s difficult to find a list of reasons. Reasons include things like working on polling day, travelling, medical appointment or worries about safety. Worry about catching Covid would count, but my experience is they don’t ask.

    In my case I had free time, I don’t like crowds and I just wanted to get it done. My official excuse had I been asked would been being over 65 and worried about Covid.

  3. Good point Dr Fumbles. Haven’t even thought about food for Saturday night.

    I like the idea of yum cha or Indian.

    What are the other members of the PB Pissup Club doing for food on Saturday night?

  4. Dr Fumbles at 9.43

    Tom Wolfe’s excellent ‘The Right Stuff’ (on which the film was based) had an excellent segment about ‘instrument blindness’ – about pilots being perfectly OK while their instruments accorded with what they could see out of the cockpit, but they went to shit when they flew into cloud, fog or heavy rain.

    Suddenly they lost visual references AND trust in basic instruments like their ‘artificial horizon.’ A disturbing number flew straight into the ground when, if they followed instruments and flown straight and level, they would have been fine.

    I understand these early aviation problems led to rigorous ‘flying on instruments only’ training.

  5. Steve777

    “Australian MP candidate Katherine Deves praised and promoted Kiwi Farms”

    Finally a politician who understands the most important issue facing ordinary Australians: The Dimensional Merge.

  6. “they need more than a $20,000 sugar hit..”


    Yeah, they need people to take the climate crisis seriously.

    The residents of the Northern Rivers, of which I am one, are all too well aware of the realities of the floods, you are right about that.

    We need to stop all new coal and gas and start taking the climate crisis seriously. We must transition now or these catastrophic events like the floods and bushfires of 2019 will continue to happen.

    The Greens are the only party with policies that match the urgency of the crisis. Labor and especially the Coalition will both continue leading us down a path to further catastrophe.

    A vote for Labor or the Coalition is a vote for more coal and gas.

  7. Upnorth @ #729 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:18 pm

    Dandy Murray-Honeydew says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:13 pm

    “Talking of GG is he off with BB at the moment?”

    Yep. Got snarky at the boss one too many times, and about BB’s absence again.

    As you couldn’t have seen, there wasn’t much crying and gnashing of teeth at his removal.
    Roger that.

    Well the boss AKA “Dear Leader” should ascend to the lofty heights of “The Great Helmsman” by about this time next week.

    In the old days here we used to refer being sentenced to a ban/suspension as having been Smote by The Great God Bilbo

  8. Griff says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:48 pm

    Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:43 pm

    Last year you tacked on how it would provide a framework for understanding COVID related public opinion and vaccine hesitancy you opened up a whole new vista for funding

    Only problem with that is there has been nothing going in the bank account, still i’m an ideas man

    I think Bill Byson, or maybe Clive James, said something along the lines of the difference between UK academics and those in the US, they both have ideas but the US ones turn them into Start Ups making $$$ while the Brits have great ideas and are happy feeling smug and sitting around with holes on their socks

  9. BTR Producer: Mate, you are well prepared for all possible outcomes, good work.
    Go hard on the drink, blokes, my advice.

    I wonder if News Ltd and 2GB will refer to tonight’s revelations about Katherine Deves? Silly me, I know the answer to that one.

  10. BTRProducer says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:55 pm
    “Good point Dr Fumbles. Haven’t even thought about food for Saturday night.

    I like the idea of yum cha or Indian.

    What are the other members of the PB Pissup Club doing for food on Saturday night?”

    Cans of Pale Ale. You?

  11. Tom says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:57 pm
    In the old days here we used to refer being sentenced to a ban/suspension as being having been Smote by The Great God Bilbo
    And so it came to pass that Bilbo begat Dear Leader who begat The Great Helmsman

  12. Lovely spot zoomster, always liked that part of Vic with the trees and the road over the black spur towards Marysville, serenity.

  13. Good point Dr Fumbles. Haven’t even thought about food for Saturday night.

    I like the idea of yum cha or Indian.

    What are the other members of the PB Pissup Club doing for food on Saturday night?

    I will be having my favourite Indian, butter chicken, a few samosas and garlic nan breads, And I don’t care how much it costs!!!

  14. “In theory, you need to provide a valid reason but it’s difficult to find a list of reasons.”

    Yeah I walked in and the lady asked why I was voting early and I went “uhhhhh” and she volunteered that I couldn’t make it on the day and I said “yeah sure why not” and got a ballot. Seems weird to even say there’s criteria when there isn’t (and I assume couldn’t be) in practice. Unless there’s a good logistical reason to encourage on the day voting, which they’re still doing despite the fact that Covid is still a serious issue.

  15. Boinzo

    Kinda had a fun picture of eating indian takeaway, drinking stubbies of beer and wearing a Hawaiian shirt with the $2 ukulele on the sofa. But no thongs and no spilling beer over myself.

  16. Well, all the booth workers in Robertson for Labor have been invited to the local Country Club after the election to watch it all on TV, hopefully celebrate and then be on TV ourselves!
    Fingers crossed.

  17. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #759 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:31 pm

    PB would make a great resource for social psycology. This is really a good example of ‘instrument blindness’, sorry been watching too much air crash investigation, where you discount all the data and go with the perception bias based on the ‘affect’ of 2019 an the don’t trust the miracle evidence like the polls, despite the polling being adjusted and working as per State polls.

    Of course, this could be all bull and Miracle 2.0 could be just around the corner. Either way, would be a super case study.

    I’ve often thought that BillBowe sells data and access to social psychologists and lets them in to conduct their experiments as some random posters.

  18. Our drinks on Saturday will be wine – and either champagne or gin.

    Beer… can’t drink more than the equivalent of two pints without feeling bloated and uncomfortable.

  19. Boinzo: Hahn Super Dry for me, Indian sounds good too or some Malaysian/Thai for the food part of the evening.
    Ooh, will any of the journos ask Morriscum about Katherine Deves and heckle him at his event tomorrow? Silly question, again.

  20. I think it’s embarrassing that we might soon have a member of parliament who frequented a website for losers to idiotically obsess over and dox YouTubers and other internet personalities they don’t like.

    I know she was probably there for the anti-trans stuff but part of me hopes she was there to shitpost about DarksydePhil or something…

  21. Boinzo says:

    I like the idea of yum cha or Indian.

    What are the other members of the PB Pissup Club doing for food on Saturday night?”
    Yum Cha would be great but not really practical considering they stop serving it at 3pm in Melbourne on Saturdays.

    Indian is the way to go. We are having a party, so just going for entrees.

    A whole bunch of Tandoori chicken, tandoori lamb cutlets, vegetable pakora, onion bhaji etc etc.

  22. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:04 pm

    Kinda had a fun picture of eating indian takeaway, drinking stubbies of beer and wearing a Hawaiian shirt with the $2 ukulele on the sofa. But no thongs and no spilling beer over myself.

    Works for me mate! Although you could try drinking beer from the ukulele!

  23. Boinzo says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:01 pm

    BTRProducer says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:55 pm
    “Good point Dr Fumbles. Haven’t even thought about food for Saturday night.

    I like the idea of yum cha or Indian.

    What are the other members of the PB Pissup Club doing for food on Saturday night?”

    Cans of Pale Ale. You?
    Thai for me. Somtam (Green Papaya Salad), Moo Bing (Pork Skewers), Yellow Crab Curry, Sun Dried Fried Squid and titbits. No Field Rat or Frog.

    Will start with Beer Lao, then a nice Italian Amarone then onto the Bundy OP. Have a group of Thai friends who will pretend to understand what I am talking about and Mrs Upnorth who wants Champagne.

  24. Wat Tyler says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:07 pm

    Thank you Zoomster. That’s a lovely looking spot. You’ve done lizzie a great service.
    Yes. You’ve been a great friend to her. She would be happy for that.

  25. Troy Bramston is reporting Labor would hold a caucus meeting on May 30 if successful on Saturday, and elect ministers as per party rules.

  26. Funninly enough when I voted yesterday, they asked me “do you have a valid reason?”, then said before I could answer “just say yes” – guess it gives them something to do as it was a very quiet day then.

    Also asked if I had voted already, so I told them “nope, first time here, Vote ear and vote often” – still no reaction

  27. poroti

    “They are nutters going by Wikipedia and a real menace”

    Nutters doesn’t quite cut it, they are probably some of the most vindictive doxxers and harassers on the internet besides actual terrorist organizations, which is quite an achievement for a bunch of mentally ill 20-somethings who overdosed on 4chan memes in 2015.

  28. Nein Fax giving it a big final push for Bullshit Man and his ‘woman problem’
    Served up to us Croods we have…

    Scott Morrison
    ‘She’s just lovely’: Jenny Morrison joins PM on the campaign trail

    While Sin City folk get

    Scott Morrison
    The Scott Morrison I know is a good friend, who wants a better life for women

  29. C@t

    Perhaps you’ve heard the Putin joke; it’s something like this

    Putin dies and goes to hell. After a few years he gets a day off, so he visits Moscow.

    Everything is good, the children are happy, people are driving new cars, and come the evening the bars are flowing with the best vodka.

    That’s all very well, thinks Putin, but I must make sure of the important things. So he goes into one of the the bars, orders a vodka and questions the barman:
    “Did we get Crimea?”
    “Yes”, says the barman
    “And Donbass? Did we get that too?”

    And then—hardly daring to hope—he asks:
    “And Kyiv, did we get get that too?”
    “Yes we did”

    So Putin is overjoyed, and says so:
    “All my wishes for Mother Russia’s greatness are fulfilled! How much do I owe you?”

    “Ten Euro”, says the barman

  30. Smart of Labor to release their coatings after the TV advertising blackout kicks in, I saw that tosser Birmingham on the news tonight making claims about funding blackholes etc .

  31. This UAP launch is one of the funniest things I’ve seen. Feels like a Hollywood spoof of an election campaign. Any idea how much they would’ve paid channel 10 for this time slot?

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