Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7

Essential Research joins in on the tightening race narrative, although it gets there through preferences rather than primary votes. Also featured: many seat polls, one of which has independent Kate Chaney leading in Curtin, and even polls for the Senate.

The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.

My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.

Other polling news:

The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.

Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.

Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.

• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.

• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.

Senate news:

• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.

The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.

• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.

Non-polling news:

Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.

Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.

• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7”

Comments Page 18 of 20
1 17 18 19 20
  1. Rakali says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:09 pm

    Is this “PB Pissup Club” on Saturday a virtual Pissup?

    How does that work?
    中华人民共和国
    Open drink of choice, follow PB, lift drink of choice to lips, drink – repeat in that order.

  2. Boinzo says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:07 pm

    Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:04 pm
    Boinzo

    Kinda had a fun picture of eating indian takeaway, drinking stubbies of beer and wearing a Hawaiian shirt with the $2 ukulele on the sofa. But no thongs and no spilling beer over myself.

    Works for me mate! Although you could try drinking beer from the ukulele!
    _____________________

    It is about the only thing it is almost useful for, only got it to go to the polling booth then forgot it anyway, anyway probably after curry, beer, fizzy wine and sesame prawns it will get to that stage, but if miracle 2.0 happens I know what will be the first thing that gets broken.

  3. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:59 pm

    These UK academics can get away with holes in their socks due to their climate. What is an Aussie academic to do when sandals are called for? And don’t start with that wearing sandals without socks business!

    But seriously, dealing with the (insert the latest buzz word for name) part of the university responsible for commercialisation in Australia is mostly on the UK side of the equation.

  4. Upnorth

    “Will start with Beer Lao, then a nice Italian Amarone”

    ————-

    The Taste of Amarone Wine

    Expect bold aromas of cherry liqueur, black fig, carob, cinnamon, and plum sauce along with subtle notes of green peppercorn, chocolate, and crushed gravel dust. Sound intriguing? On the palate, Amarone wines often have medium-plus to high acidity balanced with high alcohol and flavors of black cherry, brown sugar, and chocolate.

    …….Crushed gravel dust……
    🙂

  5. Jt1983, the pack following Morrison just offer up Dorothy Dixers written for them by their Liberal supporting editors and bosses. The Murdoch ones are easy to spot, they give Scomo the very soft questions

  6. Don’t forget the advertisement blackout doesn’t extend into the digital world. Not too late to throw some cash at a part of choice to make zuck or Google wealthier

  7. Rakali says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    Upnorth

    “Will start with Beer Lao, then a nice Italian Amarone”

    ————-

    The Taste of Amarone Wine

    Expect bold aromas of cherry liqueur, black fig, carob, cinnamon, and plum sauce along with subtle notes of green peppercorn, chocolate, and crushed gravel dust. Sound intriguing? On the palate, Amarone wines often have medium-plus to high acidity balanced with high alcohol and flavors of black cherry, brown sugar, and chocolate.

    …….Crushed gravel dust……

    中华人民共和国
    The drink of love 🙂

  8. Greg Rudd, you are a man of the 1980s, of course KB is in your fridge.
    Greg is a great mate of mine from other places, he knows Western Sydney very well.

  9. @Upnorth

    Now you just made me think of something, to make my gathering nicely culturally inclusive I might just get a box of Leo beer, not as low carb, but with that buffet who gives a crap. No McDonalds though, don’t need an Engadine moment. Will just stick with the shirt and silly hat.

  10. Upnorth @ #855 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:17 pm

    Rakali says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    Upnorth

    “Will start with Beer Lao, then a nice Italian Amarone”

    ————-

    The Taste of Amarone Wine

    Expect bold aromas of cherry liqueur, black fig, carob, cinnamon, and plum sauce along with subtle notes of green peppercorn, chocolate, and crushed gravel dust. Sound intriguing? On the palate, Amarone wines often have medium-plus to high acidity balanced with high alcohol and flavors of black cherry, brown sugar, and chocolate.

    …….Crushed gravel dust……

    中华人民共和国
    The drink of love 🙂

    I’ll stick to Cider, possibly followed by Peter Van Ghent Pipeclay white port.

  11. “Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:52 pm

    Early voting’s been a thing for a while. In theory, you need to provide a valid reason but it’s difficult to find a list of reasons. Reasons include things like working on polling day, travelling, medical appointment or worries about safety. Worry about catching Covid would count, but my experience is they don’t ask.”

    The list is in Schedule 2 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918: http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/sch2.html.

    Item 7A – “The person will be unable to attend a polling booth on polling day because of a reasonable fear for, or a reasonable apprehension about, his or her personal wellbeing or safety” – would, in a pandemic such as we are facing at the moment, cover just about anyone who wanted to vote early.

  12. Griff says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:59 pm

    These UK academics can get away with holes in their socks due to their climate. What is an Aussie academic to do when sandals are called for? And don’t start with that wearing sandals without socks business!

    But seriously, dealing with the (insert the latest buzz word for name) part of the university responsible for commercialisation in Australia is mostly on the UK side of the equation.
    ____________________________

    The way things are going that is really the only path looked favorably upon by the LNP Govt and funding, almost choked on my latte and smashed avo when SfM at the launch was boasting about uni funding – all commercialiation after cutting social sciences, starving of students with uber high HECS and no jobkeeper

  13. Election night tradition since 1996 at Chez Griff is Turkish pide and Lebanese mezze to go with the sparkling shiraz and vintage port. Nothing too fancy food-wise and easy to comfort eat should the going get rough 🙂

  14. I’m having stale bread and drippings by myself at my house, knowing how the result will go. I will then take a double dose of Temazepam.

    If there is somehow a miracle I may celebrate with some green cordial and coleslaw with lamb chops.

  15. Sounds like we’re all on the same page then for Saturday night. Beverages and some combination of Indian or Thai for the food side. Except those PBers who are doing a liquid diet on the night.

    I am thinking Dr Fumbles idea of an Hawaiian shirt for Saturday is an excellent idea. Dare I wear it to the polling booth near me? It’s a primary school, which does an excellent democracy sausage. And usually has a cake stand staffed by the Blue Rinse Brigade. I always go there because I get not just my sanga, but usually a decent serve of lamos for the night ahead.

  16. @Beagle

    Am thinking that is a good start. Can’t be doing shots of hard liquor, though. We want to win good and proper, True Believers. That means 90+ shots. Hard to do without blacking out before Morrison’s concession speech. So maybe just necking our beer each time?

  17. Great to hear about everyones Election Night plans. I might be thousands of KMs from Oz but my heart and soul are there. Labor blood does flow through my veins and I wear my heart on my sleeve. You are all top cobbers.

  18. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:26 pm

    “BTW I thought all Aussie Academics are called Bruce”

    No need for titles – we are among friends here 🙂

  19. yikes about that picture you posted citizen at about 7:30.

    I swear someone must be slipping me crazy pills. In the world I used to think we lived in, some guy doing that would be asked, quite pointedly, wtf? Am I the only person to think that that behaviour is at least a little bit troubling?

  20. @UpNorth

    You might be far away, cobber, but you’re close in heart and spirit. You’re a True Believer of the Light on the Hill. So no distance is too far.

    PB will make sure we’re all together for when the moment happens, and Ablo becomes our new PM*.

    *Australian democracy pending

  21. I’m reading these plans with a faint sense of envy. Leading up to and after my operation last year it was a long dry period. Between being waay out of practice and maybe the pills, 3 cans is now classed as going
    out ‘on the ran tan’ , nearly ready to dance on the table top after 2 . Makes for a very cheap night though 😆 All of which means , damn I’m going to choose wisely when it comes to what to select. Especially as the ‘special occasion’ beers I like are strong enough to count as 2.

  22. Albo not letting up – let’s go Albo, let’s go!

    “Anthony Albanese will lead a two-day, five-state blitz of 20 marginal seats as Labor attempts to hold off a late swing to the government which Coalition campaigners ­believe has tightened the election race in key battlegrounds.

    With confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats, the Opposition Leader on Wednesday night flew into western Sydney to the safe Labor seat of Fowler to defend star candidate Kristina Keneally, who is facing a strong challenge from independent Dai Le.

    Ms Keneally has failed to ­secure preferences ahead of Ms Le from any party except the Greens, sparking suggestions she will fail to hold the seat unless she can lift her primary vote from 42 per cent suggested in some polls to the mid-40s.

    Senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat, but with the Liberal Party running “dead”, the prospect of Ms Le running second in the contest could change the game. If the Liberal candidate were to run third behind Ms Le, then preferences from conservative minor parties could rob Labor of the seat.”

    “Mr Albanese will now visit NSW and Queensland on Thursday, missing the unveiling of his policy costings in Canberra, which will be handed down by Treasury spokesman Jim ­Chalmers and finance spokeswoman Katy Gallagher.

    The Australian understands Mr Albanese will then visit South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria on Friday as he seeks to avoid a ­repeat of 2019 when Bill Shorten appeared to halt his campaign following the death of former Labor prime minister Bob Hawke.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/fedeal-election-2022-edging-to-photo-finish/news-story/7a8a0a3a48d2836eb96aaa4c13fad374

  23. Griff says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:29 pm

    Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:25 pm

    A-grade gaslighting is when you can manage a full 180 degrees
    __________________

    Hats off it was a particularly good one, you just got to roll with them

  24. @poroti

    Save your beverages of choice for the three key moments.
    1. The first change of seat of the night
    2. Anthony Green calls the election
    3. The concession/victory speech (depending on outcome)

  25. Early voted in Riverina, Wagga Wagga, abt 7pm. Next to the picture theatre on Trail St.
    Very quiet.
    Bumped into Michael McCormack and Labor WWCC member Dan Hayes. Had a good yarn.
    Voted Green 1 ALP 2 in HoR. And Socialist Alliance 1 (Greens over ALP) in senate to twelve.
    Here’s hoping for change.

  26. “Australian MP candidate Katherine Deves praised and promoted Kiwi Farms”

    Finally a politician who understands the most important issue facing ordinary Australians: The Dimensional Merge.

    Not every day you see Chris-Chan reference in this corner of the internet.

  27. Re BeaglieBoy @ 9:35

    ”Steve777: I think you chose the correct path. A tactical vote. I dont think the ALP could get up in NS. The preferences from Tink will only flow at best 50-50 if she finishes 3rd

    That was my reasoning. Best we could do was get rid of a “Liberal” and replace him with someone who may or may not be Liberal Lite but who at is not least beholden through party discipline to the ugly right (coal, gas, patriarchal Christianity, dog-whistlers and culture warriors).

  28. UpNorth, you are the spiritual leader of the pissup blokes club, despite being a long way from the rest of us.
    BTR Producer – how about a beer for each Tory seat AG gives away to Labor or the Teals?
    Frydenberg losing Kooyong would be worth 2 beers at least.

  29. BeaglieBoy says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:30 pm

    Is it too late for Upnorth to charter a 777 jet and fly us all to Bankok for the party?
    中华人民共和国
    Wise Words “Once you go to Bangkok you never come back” – The Hangover II

  30. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:39 pm

    To lost one colonel may be regarded as misfortune, to lose 42 looks like carelessness…

    It’s easy to loose a colonel, they are camouflaged.

  31. Freya Stark says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:26 pm

    I’m having stale bread and drippings by myself at my house, knowing how the result will go. I will then take a double dose of Temazepam.

    If there is somehow a miracle I may celebrate with some green cordial and coleslaw with lamb chops.
    ______________________

    Oh Bread and dripping, used to love that, had a big enamel pot that used to collect the dregs. Of course back then we would have to put the bread in a muddy puddle to soften it up enough to cut and season the dripping with coal dust….then leave for work before we got up an pay me employer to go to work….

  32. Evan says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:39 pm

    UpNorth, you are the spiritual leader of the pissup blokes club, despite being a long way from the rest of us.
    BTR Producer – how about a beer for each Tory seat AG gives away to Labor or the Teals?
    Frydenberg losing Kooyong would be worth 2 beers at least.
    中华人民共和国
    Got a tear in me eyes you cobbers. It will be a top night. Keep the faith.

  33. Said with affection… genuine… listening to the banter in here feels like being in the front bar of a bowls club 🙂

    And in the few times I’ve been in that situation, I don’t engage and just watch in fascination.

  34. BeaglieBoy says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:43 pm

    Evan: we might be in trouble with that plan if its a 92 seat ALP win….slco poisoning and stomach pumping territory
    中华人民共和国
    What happens if Labor wins Cook?

  35. BeaglieBoy says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:30 pm

    Is it too late for Upnorth to charter a 777 jet and fly us all to Bankok for the party?
    中华人民共和国
    Wise Words “Once you go to Bangkok you never come back” – The Hangover II
    _______________________

    Now that would be a treat, I was only in Bangkok for one night in 1999 but the world’s your lobster, as Delboy would say.

  36. Am heading to Albo’s do on election night so it’ll either be the bash of the century or a giant funeral.

    As for the five State blitz, don’t read anything into it as a reaction to polling – he said at the Grayndler campaign launch at the Sackville in March that he was planning on doing it. He’s not taking anything for granted

  37. ‘Said with affection… genuine… listening to the banter in here feels like being in the front bar of a bowls club ‘

    thats what this place should be like all the time…..We dont need the nastiness, the pettiness, the sniping and the depressives. Just intelligent discussions and matey and chatty and a laugh at the end of the day

Comments Page 18 of 20
1 17 18 19 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *